GOLD: $1198.20 DOWN  $3.00 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSINGS)

Silver:   $14.15  DOWN 4 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

 

Closing access prices:

Gold $1198.60

silver: $14.16

 

 

 

 

 

For comex gold:

SEPT/

 

And now Sept:

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR SEPT CONTRACT:  0 NOTICE(S) FOR nil OZ 

Total number of notices filed so far for Sept:  608 for 60800 (1.8911 tonnes)

 

 

For silver: 

Sept

107 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR

535,000 OZ/

Total number of notices filed so far this month: 6052 for 30,260,000 oz

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Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE  $6297: UP  $14

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $6300  UP 45.00

 

end

First Shanghai gold fix comes at 10 pm est

The second Shanghai gold fix:  2:15 pm

First Shanghai gold fix gold: 10 pm est: $1203.95

NY price  at the same time:$1198.35

 

PREMIUM TO NY SPOT: $5.60

XX

Second gold fix early this morning: $ 1204.14

 

 

USA gold at the exact same time:$1200.25

 

PREMIUM TO NY SPOT:  $3.89

XXXX

 

China is controlling the gold market

WE WILL NOT PROVIDE LONDON FIXES AS THEY ARE NOT ACCURATE AS TO WHAT IS GOING ON AT THE SAME TIME FRAME.

Let us have a look at the data for today

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In silver, the total OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A SMALL 434 CONTRACTS FROM 203,734 DOWN TO 203,300 DESPITE YESTERDAY’S 8 CENT RISE IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. TODAY WE  MOVED FURTHER FROM  LAST MONTH’S RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY(WELL OVER 30 MILLION OZ AT THE COMEX FOR JULY , 6 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST AND NOW JUST LESS THAN 31 MILLION OZ STANDING IN SEPTEMBER. AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A FAIR SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:

EFP’S FOR SEPT.  583 EFP’S FOR DECEMBER AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE: OF 590 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 590 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 590 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 2.950MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 8 CENT RISE IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR THE JUNE/2018 COMEX DELIVERY MONTH. (5.420 MILLION OZ);  30.370 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR DELIVERY IN JULY, FOR AUGUST: 6.065 MILLION OZ AND NOW 30.910 MILLION  OZ STANDING SO FAR IN SEPT.

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF SEPT: 

22,835 CONTRACTS (FOR 11 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 22,835 CONTRACTS) OR 114.175 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 2075 CONTRACTS OR 10.379 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF SEPT:  114.175 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 16.3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2018 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:           2,152.00    MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR JAN 2018:                                              236.879     MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR FEB 2018:                                               244.95        MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MARCH 2018:                                        236.67         MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR APRIL 2018:                                           385.75         MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MAY 2018:                                             210.05         MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR JUNE 2018:                                           345.43         MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR JULY 2018:                                            172.84          MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR AUGUST 2018:                                      205.23          MILLION OZ.

RESULT: WE HAD A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 434 DESPITE THE 8 CENT RISE IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX YESTERDAY. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A FAIR SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 590  CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

TODAY WE GAINED A SMALL SIZED: 155 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

i.e 590 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH A DECREASE OF 434  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 8 CENT RISE IN PRICE OF SILVER  AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $14.19 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE HAD A GIGANTIC AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY IN THE BIG JULY DELIVERY MONTH OF SLIGHTLY OVER 30 MILLION OZ, IN AUGUST ANOTHER BIG 6.065 MILLION OZ IN A NON ACTIVE MONTH AND NOW IN SEPTEMBER AN INITIAL MONSTROUS 30.910 MILLION OZ OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY… NOBODY IS PAYING ATTENTION TO THE HUGE NUMBER OF PHYSICAL OUNCES STANDING FOR SILVER THESE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS.

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.016 MILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 145% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT AUGUST MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 107 NOTICE(S) FOR 535,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244.,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. AND NOW SEPT:  AN INITIAL HUGE 30.910 MILLION OZ.
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT).

IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 2534 CONTRACTS UP TO 472,975 WITH THE GAIN IN THE COMEX GOLD PRICE/YESTERDAY’S TRADING (A RISE IN PRICE OF $5.20)THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A GOOD SIZED 3797 CONTRACTS:

OCTOBER HAD EFP’S ISSUED AND, DECEMBER HAD AN ISSUANCE OF 3797 CONTACTS  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 472,975. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE AN VERY GOOD SIZED OI GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 5831 CONTRACTS:  2534 OI CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 3297 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN:  5831 CONTRACTS OR 583,100 OZ = 18.13 TONNES.  AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND  OCCURRED WITH A GAIN IN THE PRICE OF GOLD/ YESTERDAY TO THE TUNE OF $5.20

 

 

 

YESTERDAY, WE HAD 5701 EFP’S ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF SEPT : 84090 CONTRACTS OR 8,409,000 OZ OR 261.55 TONNES (11 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 7645 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY OR 764,500 OZ/ TRADING DAY),,

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 11 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 261.55 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2017, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 261.55/2550 x 100% TONNES =  10.25% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN JULY ALONE.***

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2018 TO DATE:     5,458.46*  TONNES   *SURPASSED ANNUAL PROD’N

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR JANUARY 2018:           653.22  TONNES (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR FEBRUARY 2018:         649.45 TONNES  (20 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MARCH 2018:             741.89 TONNES  (22 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR APRIL 2018:                 713.84 TONNES  (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MAY 2018:                   693.80 TONNES ( 22 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR JUNE 2018                      650.71 TONNES  (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR JULY 2018                       605.5 TONNES     (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR AUG. 2018                      488.54  TONNES  (23 TRADING DAYS)

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

Result: A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 2534 WITH THE GAIN IN PRICING ($5.20 THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY) // .  WE ALSO HAD A GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 3297 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 3297 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD GOOD GAIN OF 5831 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

3297 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 2534 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (in tonnes, the GAIN in total oi equates to 18.13 TONNES). ..AND ALL OF THIS HUGE DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A GAIN OF $5.20 IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX.

 

 

we had: 0 notice(s) filed upon for NIL oz of gold at the comex.

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

WITH GOLD DOWN $3.00  TODAY: / 

NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:

 

 

 

 

/GLD INVENTORY   742.53 TONNES

Inventory rests tonight: 742.53 tonnes.

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

WITH SILVER DOWN 4  CENTS TODAY

 

 

WE HAD NO CHANGES FOR SILVER :

 

 

 

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 334.973 MILLION OZ.

 

NOTE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GLD AND SLV: THE CROOKS CAN RAID GOLD BECAUSE THEY DO HAVE SOME PHYSICAL.  THEY DO NOT RAID SILVER PROBABLY BECAUSE THERE IS NO REAL SILVER INVENTORIES BEHIND THEM

 

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 434 CONTRACTS from 206,734 DOWN TO  203,000  AND MOVING A LITTLE FURTHER FROM THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST  MONTH AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..

 

.

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 

EFP CONTRACTS FOR SEPTEMBER, 583 CONTRACTS FOR DECEMBER AND  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 590 CONTRACTS . EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 434 CONTRACTS TO THE 590 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A NET GAIN OF 155 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS.  THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 0.755 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 6.065 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST.. AND NOW A HUGE 30.910  MILLION OZ INITIALLY STAND FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER….

 

 

RESULT: A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 8 CENT PRICING GAIN THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING YESTERDAY. BUT WE ALSO HAD A GOOD SIZED 590 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i) TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: Shanghai closed UP 48.16 POINTS OR 1.82%   /Hang Sang CLOSED UP 151.81 POINTS OR 0.56%/   / The Nikkei closed UP 325.87 POINTS OR 1.41%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.39%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.8685 AS POBC RESUMES  ITS HUGE DEVALUATION  /DELEGATION COMING TO THE USA TO SEE TRUMP IN NOVEMBER/Oil DOWN to 69.79 dollars per barrel for WTI and 78.95 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN //.  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AT 6.8685 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8751: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS RESUMES// TRADE TALKS NOT DOING TOO GOOD   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING  STRONGER AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING  WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3A/NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

i)North Korea/South Korea/USA/

 

 

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C/  CHINA

i)China retaliates by issuing a levy on basically all remaining USA imports totaling $60 billion.  China want to stop the trade war and sent a little olive branch by lowering the increase by 5 to 10%.  The USA was not enthralled as the dollar fell badly.

( zerohedge)

ii)The Government of China wanted to cool the red hot real estate market so they got investors to dive into the rental property business.  This now has backfired because rents are skyrocketing

( zerohedge)

 

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

Germany

Merkel faces a new problem as she plans to fire her spy chief who defied her

( zerohedge)

 

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)Syria

A massive attack on Syria last night.  It was either the uSA or Israel that launched this huge escalation

( zerohedge)

ii)Syria/Turkey

Turkey and Russia sign an agreement for a demilitarized zone in Idlib province.  Within hours, the Israelis with possible help from France and the USA attacked Latakia. Israel does not want any deal as it wants the removal of all Iranian interests inside Syria.

( zerohedge)

iii)SYRIA/ISRAEL/RUSSIA

Moscow accuses Israel of using a Russian reconnaissance plane as cover during a Syrian attack in Latakia.  That plan was shot down by the Syrians by mistake.  Tensions are now rising. Israel will do anything to get rid of the Iranians inside Syria.

( zerohedge)

 

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

 

 

 

7. OIL ISSUES

Expect oil to drop to around $65.00 per barrel on the back of extra mainenance work at all of the uSA refiners

(courtesy Irina Slav/OilPrice.com)

 

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

VENEZUELA

 

 

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

This is a first:  the Shanghai gold exchange is launching trading for the new one oz Chinese gold panda coin along side bars and ingots

( Ronan Manly/Bullion star)

 

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)

 

i)Market trading /GOLD/MARKET MOVERS:

MARKET TRADING

ii)Market data

 

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

a)Trump is set to declassify the text messages and FISA court documents
( THE HILL/FABIAN)

b)Trump slaps tariffs on 200 billion of China imports and they will add another $267 billion dollars if China retaliates.  China did retaliate (above) so what will Trump’s next move be:

( zerohedge)

c)Both Kavanaugh and Ford will testify on Monday

(courtesy zerohedge)

iv)SWAMP STORIES

a)What is no doubt a completely fabricated story, Kavanaugh will never get a fair hearing:  the Federalist

( zerohedge/Federalist)

b)The declassification order will expose the FBI’s insurance policy orchestrated by Strzok and Page and others trying to bring the Trump White HOuse down

( zerohedge)

Let us head over to the comex:

 

The total gold comex open interest ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 2534 CONTRACTS UP to an OI level 472,975 WITH THE RISE IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($5.20 GAIN/ YESTERDAY’S COMEX TRADING). FOR TWO YEARS STRAIGHT WE HAVE NOTICED THAT ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AND EFP’S NOTICES EXPONENTIALLY INCREASE AS WELL AS WE WITNESS THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST COLLAPSE.

 

WE ARE NOW IN THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A  GOOD SIZED COMEX TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 3297 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

OCTOBER: 0 EFP’S AND DECEMBER:  3297 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  3297 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A 5831 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 3297 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED 2534 COMEX CONTRACTS.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  5831 contracts OR 583,100  OZ OR 18.13 TONNES.

Result: A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OPEN INTEREST WITH THE RISE IN PRICE/ YESTERDAY (ENDING UP WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE OF $5.20). THE  TOTAL OPEN INTEREST GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  5831 OI CONTRACTS..

We are now in the active contract month of SEPTEMBER. For the September contract month, we lost 1 contract and thus the number of  open interest contracts standing for gold in this front month is 17 contracts. We had 1 notice filed  yesterday so we  gained 0 contracts or an additional NIL oz will stand for gold and these guys refused to accept a fiat bonus and transfer to London.

 

 

 

 

 

THE NEXT ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IS  OCTOBER AND HERE THE OI LOST 1188 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 33,338. NOVEMBER SAW A 8 CONTRACT GAIN TO STAND AT 87. DECEMBER SAW ITS OPEN INTEREST RISE BY 3298 CONTRACTS UP TO 365,721.

WE HAD 0 NOTICES FILED AT THE COMEX FOR NIL OZ.

 

FOR THE SEPT GOLD CONTRACT MONTH;

 

FOR COMEX SEPT/2017  FIRST DAY NOTICE GOLD:  80,700 OZ OR 2.696 TONNES INITIALLY STOOD

BY THE END OF SEPTEMBER:  57,700 OZ OR 1.797 TONNES FINALLY STOOD AS THE OTHERS MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS.

 

FOR THE OCTOBER CONTRACT MONTH: OCTOBER IS THE WEAKEST OF ALL DELIVERY MONTHS IN GOLD.

FOR THE COMEX OCT 2017 GOLD CONTRACT MONTH: WE INITIALLY HAD 300,600 OZ STAND FOR DELIVERY OR 9.349 TONNES.

AT THE CONCLUSION OF THE OCTOBER TRADING MONTH: 333,300 OZ OR 10.367 TONNES FINALLY STOOD FOR DELIVERY AS WE HAD ONE DAY OF QUEUE JUMPING.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total silver OI FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 434 CONTRACTS FROM 206,277 DOWN TO 203,000 (AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  (THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S OI COMEX LOSS OCCURRED DESPITE A 8 CENT GAIN IN PRICING.

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT.AND, WE WERE  INFORMED THAT WE HAD A FAIR SIZED 590 EFP CONTRACTS:

FOR SEPT:  6 CONTRACTS  AND FOR DECEMBER: 583 CONTRACTS AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS.  THESE EFPS WERE ISSUED TO COMEX LONGS WHO RECEIVED A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  THE TOTAL EFP’S ISSUED: 590.  ON A NET BASIS WE GAINED 155 SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AS WE OBTAINED A 434 CONTRACT LOSS AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 590 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:   155 CONTRACTS…AND ALL OF  DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A 8 CENT GAIN

 

 

 

The next active delivery month after August for silver is September and here the OI FELL by 66 contracts DOWN to 247.

We had 76 notices filed on yesterday so we gained 10 contracts or 50,000 ADDITIONAL oz will stand at the comex as these guys refused a fiat bonus as well as a London based forwards. For the past 17 months starting in April 2017, we have been witnessing on a constant basis queue jumping as the commercials seek physical silver immediately after first day notice. After a little holiday this week, queue jumping resumes in earnest  in the silver pits

 

 

 

 

 

October LOST 4  contracts to stand at 561. November saw a GAIN of 9 contracts to stand at 146.

After Nov., the next big delivery month is December and here the OI fell by 739 contracts down to 174,714 contracts.

We had 107 notice(s) filed for 535,000 OZ for the SEPTEMBER 2018 COMEX contract for silver

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX

 

PRELIMINARY COMEX VOLUME FOR TODAY: 220,100 contracts

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  218,635 contracts

 

 

 

 

AND NOW FOR THE ACTIVE SEPTEMBER SILVER CONTRACT AND COMPARISON TO LAST YR:

 

 

 

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOR THE SEPT/2017 SILVER CONTRACT MONTH:  20.515 MILLION OZ STOOD FOR DELIVERY AND BY MONTH’S END:  A HUGE 32.875 MILLION OZ WAS THE FINAL STANDING AS WE WERE WELL INTO THE PHENOMENON OF QUEUE JUMPING IN SILVER. THUS WE ARE WAY AHEAD OF LAST YEAR AS ALREADY WE HAVE 30.910 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INITIALLY STAND. WE WILL NO DOUBT PASS LAST YEAR’S TOTAL OF 32.875 MILLION OZ ONCE SEPTEMBER ENDS AS THE BANKS SCRAMBLE FOR PHYSICAL SILVER.

 

AND NOW COMPARISON FOR OCTOBER:

 

FOR THE OCTOBER 2017 CONTRACT MONTH WE HAD 4.205,000 OZ OF SILVER INITIALLY STAND FOR DELIVERY.

BY MONTH’S END WE HAD 5,475,000 OZ FINALLY STAND AS QUEUE JUMPING IN SILVER WAS ALREADY IN THE NORM.

OCTOBER IS A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH FOR SILVER BUT AS YOU CAN SEE OCT 2017 DELIVERIES WERE PRETTY

GOOD.

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for SEPTEMBER/GOLD

SEPT. 18-/2018.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
60,956.706 oz
brinks
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

NIL

 

oz

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
0 notice(s)
 NIL OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
17 contracts
(1700 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
608 notices
60800 OZ
1.8911 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

today we had one major activity at  the comex BUT  no gold  entered the comex vaults

 

we had 0 kilobar transaction/
We had 0 inventory movement at the dealer accounts
total inventory deposit into the dealer accounts:  NIL  oz
total inventory withdrawals out of dealer accounts; nil oz
we had 1 withdrawal out of the customer account:
i) Out of BRINKS: 60,956.706 oz
total customer withdrawals:  60,956.706 oz
we had 0 customer deposit
total customer deposits: nil oz
we had 0 adjustments

FOR THE SEPTEMBER 2018 CONTRACT MONTH)

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 1 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 1 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the SEPT/2018. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (608) x 100 oz or 60,800 oz, to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT. (17 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (0 x 100 oz per contract) equals 62,500 OZ OR 1.9440 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this non active month of SEPT

 

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the SEPT/2018 contract month:

No of notices served (608 x 100 oz)  + {17)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (0 x 100 oz )which equals 62,500 oz standing OR 1.9440 TONNES in this NON  active delivery month of SEPTEMBER.

We gained 0 contracts or an additional nil oz will stand for physical gold at the comex and these guys refused to accept a fiat bonus to move their contracts over to Londonas queue jumping in gold intensifies.  Let us see if this continues throughout the month as it looks like the commercials are scrambling to obtain any physical gold they get a hold of.

 

 

 

 

 

THERE ARE ONLY 4.511 TONNES OF REGISTERED COMEX GOLD AVAILABLE FOR DELIVERY AGAINST 1.9440 TONNES STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER  

 

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  145,041.066 oz or   4.511tonnes
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,270,816.984 oz 257.26 tonnes

IN THE LAST 25 MONTHS 98 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE AUGUST DELIVERY MONTH

SEPTEMBER INITIAL standings/SILVER

SEPT. 18/ 2018
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 32,171.285 oz
DELAWARE
CNT

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
479.351/430
oz
BRINKS
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
NIL
oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
107
CONTRACT(S)
535,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
140 contract
(700,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 6052 contracts

(30,260,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

we had 1 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

i) Into BRINKS: 479,251.430 oz

 

total dealer deposits: 479,251.430 oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan: nil oz

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 145.4 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.8% of all official comex silver. (145 million/286 million)

ii) Into EVERYBODY ELSE:  NIL OZ

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today: NIL oz

we had  2 withdrawals from the customer account;

i) Out of CNT: 30,171.285 OZ

ii) Out of Delaware: 2,000.000 ???

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals: 32,171.285 oz

we had 0  adjustment

i

 

 

 

 

 

 

total dealer silver:  90.700 million

total dealer + customer silver:  293.784 million oz

The total number of notices filed today for the SEPTEMBER 2018. contract month is represented by 107 contract(s) FOR 535,000 oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in SEPT., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 6052 x 5,000 oz = 30,410,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPTEMBER. (247) and the number of notices served upon today (107 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the SEPT/2018 contract month: 6052(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of SEPTEMBER(247) -number of notices served upon today (107)x 5000 oz equals 30,960,000 oz of silver standing for the SEPT contract month.  This is a huge number of oz standing!!

We gained 10 contracts or an additional 50,000 oz will stand at the comex as these guy refused to morph into London based forwards as well as refusing a fiat bonus

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

ESTIMATED VOLUME FOR TODAY:  68,202 CONTRACTS   

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 58,940 CONTRACTS..

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 58,940 CONTRACTS EQUATES TO 294 million OZ  OR 42.1% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -3.74% (SEPT.18/2018)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -1.46% to NAV (SEPT 18/2018 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -3.74%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 12.13/TRADING 11.63/DISCOUNT 3.63.

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

SEPT 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.00: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 742.53 TONNES

SEPT 17/WITH GOLD UP $5.20: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 742.53 TONNES

SEPT 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.95 TODAY, ANOTHER HUGE 2.65 TONNES OF GOLD WAS REMOVED FROM INVENTORY AT THE GLD..PRETTY SOON WE WILL HAVE ZERO INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 742.53 TONNES

SEPT 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.65:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 745.18 TONNES

SEPT 12/WITH GOLD UP $8.00 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 745.18 TONNES

SEPT 11/WITH GOLD UP $3.00 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF .26 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 745.18 TONNES

SEPT 10/WITH GOLD DOWN 80 CENTS/ANOTHER HUGE 1.44 TONNES OF WITHDRAWAL FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 745.44 TONNES

SEPT 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.75: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 746.92 TONNES

SEPT 6/WITH GOLD UP $3.05 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 746.92

SEPT 5/WITH GOLD UP $2.30 TODAY, WE HAD ANOTHER WHOPPER OF A WITHDRAWAL:  6.24 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 746.92 TONNES

SEPT 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.65: ANOTHER 2.65 TONNES OF GOLD LEAVE THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 755.16 TONNES/

AUGUST 31/WITH GOLD UP $2.15:ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.06 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.81 TONNES

AUGUST 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.90: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.87 TONNES

AUGUST 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.90 (COMEX TO COMEX BUT UP 6.00 DOLLARS FROM ACCESS CLOSING) THE CROOKS RAIDED THE COOKIE JAR ONCE AGAIN TO THE TUNE OF 4.71 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.87 TONNES AFTER THE WITHDRAWAL.

AUGUST 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.60: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.58 TONNES

AUGUST 27/WITH GOLD UP ANOTHER $3.00: ANOTHER SURPRISE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.65 TONNES FROM THE GLD/SHAREHOLDERS OF GLD ARE DUMB OWING THIS CRAP/INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.58 TONNES

AUGUST 24/WITH GOLD UP $18.65 TODAY/A SURPRISE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.53 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 767.23 TONNES

AUGUST 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.20: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 768.70 TONNES

AUGUST 22/WITH GOLD UP $3.45: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTSAT 768.70 TONNES

AUGUST 21: WITH GOLD UP $5.75/A  BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.54 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 768.70 TONNES

AUGUST 20/WITH GOLD UP $10.20./ANOTHER HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 772.24 TONNES

 

AUGUST 17/WITH GOLD UP 20 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 773.41 TONNES

AUGUST 16/LATE LAST NIGHT, WITH GOLD DOWN $1.05: THE CROOKS RAIDED THE COOKIE JAR ONCE AGAIN: THIS TIME BY 2.06 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 774.59 TONNES, AND THEN JUST NOW ANOTHER 1.18 TONNES OF GOLD WITHDRAWN TO LEAVE THE INVENTORY LEVEL OF 773.41 TONNES/

AUGUST 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.15/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 776.65 TONNES

AUGUST 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.45, A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 9.43 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 776.65 TONNES

AUGUST 13/with gold down $18.00: no changes in gold inventory at the crooked GLD/inventory rests at 786.08 tonnes

AUGUST 10/WITH GOLD DOWN 55 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 786.08 TONNES

AUGUST 9/WITH GOLD DOWN BY 70 CENTS, OUR BANKERS AGAIN RAIDED THE GOLD COOKIE JAR TO THE TUNE OF 1.45 TONNES AND THUS THE INVENTORY RESTS AT 786.08 TONNES.ANYBODY HOLDING GOLD AT THE COMEX MUST REMOVE THEIR GOLD IMMEDIATELY AND PLACE IT IN A PRIVATE NON BANK  OR CALL ANDREW MAGUIRE AT KINESIS

AUGUST 8/WITH GOLD UP ANOTHER $2.75, OUR BANKERS MUST BE DESPERATE AS THEY RAIDED THE GOLD COOKIE JAR AGAIN TO THE TUNE OF 1.18 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 788.71 TONNES. ANYBODY WHO KEEPS HIS GOLD AT THE COMEX IS VERY FOOLISH..ALL GOLD AT THE COMEX IS UNALLOCATED.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

SEPT 18/2018/ Inventory rests tonight at 742.53 tonnes

*IN LAST 458 TRADING DAYS: 188,18 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 358 TRADING DAYS: A NET 31.64 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN REMOVED FROM GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

SEPT 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 334.973 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 17/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 334.973 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 334.973 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.316 MILLION OZ OF SILVER ENTERS SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 334.973 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 12/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 333.657 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 11./WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY/WE HAD NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 333.657 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 10.WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY, WE HAD ANOTHER DEPOSIT OF 940,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 333.657 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS (AND DOWN 48 CENTS FOR THE WEEK): WE HAD A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.008 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/

SEPT 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TO: A SLIGHT CHANGE, A WITHDRAWAL OF 147,000 OZ AND THIS IS TO PAY FOR FEES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.709 MILLION OZ/

 

SEPT 5./WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.856 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 37 CENTS TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.856 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 31/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.856 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY, A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 742,000 AT THE SLV.INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.856 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.104 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.104 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 27/WITH SILVERUP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.104 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 24./WITH SILVER UP 26 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.104 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.104 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 1 CENT/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.104 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 21/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.104 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 20/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/.INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.104 MILLION OZ.

AUGUST 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.104 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 16/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” A DEPOSIT OF 1.881 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.104 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 56 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 327.223 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 14/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 327.223 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 13./with silver down 31 cents today: no changes in silver inventory/inventory rests at 327.223 million oz/

AUGUST 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTOR: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.222 MILLION OZ  FROM THE SLV INVENTORY /INVENTORY RESTS AT 327.223 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 9/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY /INVENTORY RESTS AT 328.445 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 8/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 328.445 MILLION OZ

 

 

 

SEPT 18/2018:

Inventory 334.973 MILLION OZ

 

6 Month MM GOFO 2.04/ and libor 6 month duration 2.57

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0FO+ 2.04

 

libor 2.57 FOR 6 MONTHS/

GOLD LENDING RATE: .53%

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.49%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.88

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.39

end

 

Major gold/silver trading /commentaries for TUESDAY

GOLDCORE/BLOG/MARK O’BYRNE.

 

Silver Is ‘Undervalued’ Relative to Stocks, Bonds, Gold – GoldCore

– Silver is ‘undervalued’ relative to stocks, bonds and gold: GoldCore
– Silver at $14/oz is cheap relative to gold with gold-silver ratio near 80
– Silver drops to 32-month lows prompting sellout of Silver Eagle coins at U.S. Mint
– U.S. Mint said “recent increased demand” prompted a “temporary sell out” of its American Silver Eagle bullion coins as investors see silver coins as a bargain
– “We believe that we are on the verge of another financial crisis”

by Myra Saefong of Marketwatch:

A drop in silver prices this year has attracted investors seeking a bargain, prompting a temporary sellout of the 2018 American Silver Eagle bullion coins at the U.S. Mint this month.

At about $14 an ounce, silver was bound to attract more buyers. It’s “now very undervalued, relative to stocks, bonds, and, indeed, gold,” maintains Mark O’Byrne, research director at precious metals brokerage GoldCore in Dublin, which has seen the amount of the metal clients have stored grow 24% this year.

Silver in USD – 10 Years

“We believe that we are on the verge of another financial crisis, likely due to contagion among European banks, which will impact risk assets,” he warns, adding that this should lead to “significant hedging and investment demand for both gold and silver.”

“The sellout of Silver Eagles implies that demand for physical [silver] has recently been increasing,” says Chris Gaffney, president of World Markets at TIAA Bank.

“With Silver Eagles being the most popular bullion coin available, this is a good indicator of physical demand,” he adds, and higher demand “makes sense,” given that prices are nearing multiyear lows again.

The mint announced on Sept. 6 that it is producing additional coins to restock its depleted inventory.

Edmund Moy, director of the U.S. Mint from 2006 to 2011, says the recent sellout of the 2018 coins from strong growth in demand was unusual. He adds that sellouts happened much more frequently during the financial crisis of 2007-2009 and the Great Recession, which began in late 2009. Back then, the mint had a hard time meeting surging demand, as some worried investors sought refuge in precious metals.

Moy notes that sales peaked at 47 million ounces in 2015, but that this year’s are still running above the 10 million-ounce annual totals seen before the financial crisis and Great Recession. He expects sales to end the year at 11 million or 12 million ounces.

Overall physical demand for silver—including metal used in jewelry and other commercial items and processes, as well as coins—slid to 1.018 billion ounces in 2017 from 2016’s 1.041 billion. Nonetheless, there was still was a supply deficit of 26 million ounces last year, the fifth straight annual shortfall, according to the Silver Institute.

The U.S. Mint says that increased demand was behind the Silver Eagle sellout. Moy says the “surge was likely caused by silver speculators spurred by the gold/silver ratio,” which currently stands at around 1 to 85, based on Tuesday’s settlements. That means it took about 85 ounces of silver at $14.15 to buy one ounce of gold at just over $1,202. The historical norm is 1 to 50, “which means gold is overpriced or silver is underpriced,” Moy observes.

“Speculators are betting that silver is underpriced.”

Full article on Marketwatch

 

Learn about and sign up for the GoldCore Affiliate Program. Referrals paid on all gold and silver purchases for delivery and storage

News and Commentary

Gold Prices Reclaim $1,200 Ahead of New U.S. Tariffs on China (Investing.com)

Trump puts new tariffs on China as trade war escalates (CNBC.com)

Asian markets mostly shrug off latest U.S. tariffs targeting China (MarketWatch.com)

Trump slaps tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese goods, spares some consumer tech (Reuters.com)

Trump set to slap $200 billion in tariffs on Chinese goods: WSJ (CNBC.com)


Source: US Funds via GoldSeek

History Is Due To Repeat Itself – Dalio on Coming Currency Crisis (Youtube.com)

It Feels Like 2007 All Over Again… (BonnerAndPartners.com)

Is This Just the Calm Before the Storm? (GoldSeek.com)

How Anglo Quietly Built a Commodity Trader in Glencore’s Shadow (Bloomberg.com)

How Politics Drove an Irish Ruling Family Into a Ditch (BonnerAndPartners.com)

Listen on SoundCloud , Blubrry & iTunesWatch on YouTube below


Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

17 Sep: USD 1,196.80, GBP 914.00 & EUR 1,027.21 per ounce
14 Sep: USD 1,206.20, GBP 918.76 & EUR 1,030.58 per ounce
13 Sep: USD 1,206.65, GBP 924.41 & EUR 1,038.68 per ounce
12 Sep: USD 1,197.80, GBP 919.07 & EUR 1,033.10 per ounce
11 Sep: USD 1,194.00, GBP 915.92 & EUR 1,028.75 per ounce
10 Sep: USD 1,195.80, GBP 923.28 & EUR 1,032.45 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

17 Sep: USD 14.17, GBP 10.81 & EUR 12.15 per ounce
14 Sep: USD 14.22, GBP 10.83 & EUR 12.15 per ounce
13 Sep: USD 14.23, GBP 10.90 & EUR 12.24 per ounce
12 Sep: USD 14.16, GBP 10.90 & EUR 12.22 per ounce
11 Sep: USD 14.13, GBP 10.85 & EUR 12.19 per ounce
10 Sep: USD 14.22, GBP 10.99 & EUR 12.28 per ounce


Recent Market Updates

– We Are In “Never Never Land” Accounting As U.S. Government Is “Missing” $21 Trillion
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END

 

The following is self explanatory

(courtesy GATA/Chris Powell and Harvey Organ)

GATA asks bank regulator to check risks of gold

futures maneuver

 Section: 

12:21p ET Sunday, June 10, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

GATA has appealed to the U.S. comptroller of the currency, who has regulatory authority over banks, to review financial risks certain banks may have incurred through derivatives in the monetary metals markets, particularly through the recent heavy use of the “exchange for physicals” mechanism of settling gold and silver futures contracts on the New York Commodities Exchange.

The appeal was made in a letter sent May 5 to the comptroller, Joseph M. Otting, whose office is part of the U.S. Treasury Department, by your secretary/treasurer and GATA futures market consultant Harvey Organ.

“Exchange for physical” settlements of futures contracts long were considered emergency procedures when a seller was not able to deliver metal from an exchange-approved warehouse and wanted to settle with delivery elsewhere. But now such settlements appear to constitute most gold and silver futures settlements on the Comex. It is a strange development that appears to have been necessitated by the increasing difficulties of central banking’s gold and silver price suppression policy.

GATA has received no acknowledgment of the letter. Its text is below and a PDF copy of it is here:

http://www.gata.org/files/ComptrollerOfCurrencyLetter.pdf

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

May 5, 2018

Joseph M. Otting, Comptroller of the Currency
U.S. Treasury Department
400 7th Street, SW
Washington DC 20219

Dear Comptroller Otting:

Please let us bring to your attention financial risks to major banks involving their possibly unreported exposure to derivatives in the monetary metals markets.

In recent months gold and silver future contracts issued by U.S. banks on the New York Commodities Exchange have been moved off-exchange for delivery through a mechanism known as “exchange for physical” (EFP) contracts. Until recently use of this mechanism was considered an emergency procedure when a seller did not have access to metal for delivery through Comex warehouses. Now the mechanism seems to be in use for a large share of front-month contracts for which delivery is sought.

Here is an example that is happening at the Comex in the front active month of April for gold and the inactive delivery month of April for silver.

In gold, there were 229,436 EFP contracts for 713.64 tonnes, an average of 10,925 contracts and 1,092,500 ounces per trading day.

In silver, there were 77,150 EFP contracts for 385,750,000 ounces, an average of 3,673 contracts and 18,369,000 ounces per trading day.

London Bullion Market Association rules suggest that these contracts may not be reported to regulators. The LBMA’s bylaws say:

“Figures above exclude any contracts not subject to risk-based capital requirements, such as FX contracts with an original maturity of 14 days or less, futures contracts, written options, and basis swaps. Therefore, the total notional amount of derivatives by maturity will not add to the total derivatives figure in this table.”

We are told that these EFP contracts are transferred from the Comex to London as what are called “serial forwards” and their duration is always less than 14 days, which exempts them from being reported.

It is our understanding that in each quarter your office prepares a report detailing risk undertaken by the banks under the comptroller’s supervision.

These risks include derivatives undertaken by U.S. banks and other obligations that may cause a bank to fail. Our concern is that your office may not be aware of large unreported derivative exposure by banks.

Could you review this matter and let us know your conclusions?

Sincerely,

CHRIS POWELL
Secretary/Treasurer

HARVEY ORGAN
Consultant

Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
7 Villa Louisa Road
Manchester, Connecticut 06043-7541

end

Finally, they replied and it was a complete brush off

(courtesy zerohedge)

Currency comptroller brushes off GATA’s inquiry on

gold, silver EFPs

 Section: 

11:35a ET Friday, August 10, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

The U.S. comptroller of the currency, a bank regulator, has declined GATA’s request to inquire into the strange explosion of the use of the emergency procedure of “exchange for physicals” in the settlement by banks of the gold and silver futures contracts they have sold on the New York Commodities Exchange.

Your secretary/treasurer and GATA’s consultant about the Comex, Harvey Organ, wrote to the comptroller, James M. Otting, on May 5, calling attention to the recent enormous use of EFPs, which implies derivatives risks being undertaken by U.S. banks that could cause the banks to fail:

http://www.gata.org/node/18303

“Our concern is that your office may not be aware of large unreported derivative exposure by banks,” GATA wrote.

As months passed without any acknowledgment from the comptroller’s office, your secretary/treasurer appealed to his U.S. representative, John B. Larson, D-Connecticut, to ask the comptroller’s office to reply. The congressman’s office made a second inquiry on Monday this week and today the comptroller’s office provided Larson with a copy of a reply written and mailed Wednesday.

The comptroller’s reply, signed by the deputy comptroller for public affairs, Bryan Hubbard, said only that the comptroller’s office has “dedicated examiners” at the largest banks who “continuously evaluate the credit, market, operational, reputation, and compliance risks of bank trading and derivative activities.”

The reply did not say anything about the use of the “exchange for physicals” procedure for settling futures contracts. That is, the reply was a begrudged brushoff and GATA’s letter would have been ignored completely if not for Representative Larson’s repeated intervention.

Of course GATA hardly expected a conscientious reply to its letter, the comptroller’s office being not an independent regulator but part of the Treasury Department, whose mandate includes administration of the Gold Reserve Act of 1934, which, as amended in the 1970s, authorizes the department’s Exchange Stabilization Fund to secretly intervene in and rig any market in the world, directly or through intermediaries:

https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/international/ESF/Pages/esf-ind…

But there’s always value in demonstrating government’s lack of candor about what it is doing, especially in regard to the monetary metals.

A PDF copy of the reply from the comptroller’s office is posted at GATA’s internet site here:

http://www.gata.org/files/ComptrollerOfCurrencyReply-08-08-2018.pdf

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

This is a first:  the Shanghai gold exchange is launching trading for the new one oz Chinese gold panda coin along side bars and ingots

(courtesy Ronan Manly/Bullion star)

 

Shanghai Gold Exchange begins trading Chinese panda

gold coins

 Section: 

By Ronan Manly
Bullion Star, Singapore
Monday, September 17, 2018

On Wednesday, September 12, the Shanghai Gold Exchange launched trading of a new Chinese gold panda coin contract on the exchange trading platform. With the addition of this listing, the exchange now offers physical trading of these famous Chinese gold bullion coins alongside its extensive range of physical gold bar and ingot trading contracts.

The Shanghai Gold Exchange is the largest physical gold exchange in the world, and nearly all gold in the Chinese gold market passes through the exchange. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/ronan-manly/chinese-gold-panda-coins-n…

END

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Your early TUESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED down TO 6.8685/HUGE DEVALUATION FOR THE PAST FOUR WEEKS STOPS/CHINESE COMING TO USA FOR TRADE TALKS IN NOVEMBER //OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.8751   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 48,16 POINTS OR 1.82% /HANG SANG CLOSED UP 151.81 POINTS OR 0.56%
2. Nikkei closed UP 325.87 POINTS OR 1.41%/USA: YEN RISES TO 112.12/

3. Europe stocks OPENED  IN THE GREEN 

 

 

/USA dollar index RISES TO 94.56/Euro RISES TO 1.1683

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: REMAINS AT. +.12/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 112.12/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 69.79  and Brent: 78.95

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen DOWN/ CHINESE YUAN:   ON SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO +.450%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 2.84% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 1.48%

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 4.11

3k Gold at $1202.10 silver at:14.22   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 36/100 in roubles/dollar) 67.73

3m oil into the 69 dollar handle for WTI and 78 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 112.12DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9623 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1243 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to +0.45%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.99% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 3.14%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 6.4227

 

Futures, Global Markets Rebound After “Measured” China

Response To New Tariffs

After initially sliding sharply lower following the Trump admin’s announcement of a 10% tariff on another $200BN in China imports starting Sept. 24 (and rising to 25% on Jan.1), S&P futures, Chinese and emerging markets, as well as global currencies staged a strong rebound after what the market deemed to be a measured response by Beijing. Furthermore, the tariff “wasn’t the worst scenario” that some had expected, and since China’s response was “within expectations” according to SBI Securities’ Tsutomu Soma, the latest trade war round has proven to actually be positive for risk, as shown below.

While China did vow to retaliate to the latest US tariffs saying it has “no choice” but to implement counter measures, the statement from the Ministry of Commerce didn’t list specific actions, although previously China said it would respond with levies on $60 billion worth of U.S. goods.

“The U.S. side insisted on imposing tariffs, which has brought new uncertainty to the bilateral negotiations,” the commerce ministry statement said. “We hope that the U.S. side will recognize the negative consequences of such acts and take convincing measures to correct them in a timely manner.”

Adding to Beijing’s tempered reaction, the foreign ministry said in a separate briefing that it would announce countermeasures “at an appropriate time” without elaborating. “While casting a shadow over Asia, the immediate market reaction may be limited given that tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese imports have been in the pipeline for a while,” said TD Securities EM strategist Mitul Kotecha.

Still, any Chinese retaliation risks deepening the standoff further, with Trump also warning on Monday that the U.S. will immediately pursue additional tariffs on about $267 billion of Chinese imports if Beijing hits back. The gradation of escalated moves is shown in the Bloomberg chart below.

For now, however, in a similar response to what happened the last time Beijing took its time to respond to US sanctions, after sliding at first, Chinese stocks staged a strong response, with the Shanghai Composite closing sharply higher, up some 1.8% and just below 2,700 to end Tuesday trading.

At the same time, China’s yuan pared its drop as traders had anticipated an even harsher round of sanctions.

US futures meanwhile also rose after an initial kneejerk reaction, after the narrative shifted to how “watered down” the tariffs were, as it will be at least three months before they hit the 25% level some investors have been preparing for.

Following in the foosteps of the SHCOMP, Asian equities recovered from early weakness, with benchmarks in Japan and Shanghai jumping. Europe was also stronger, and the Stoxx Europe 600 Index also overcame a soft start as automakers and miners advanced.

The escalation in the trade war proved to also be good news for emerging-market stocks, which eked out gains and currencies were steady even as tougher U.S. sanctions and the prospect of retaliatory steps from China prompted economic growth concerns.

The Russian ruble and Asian currencies led peers higher. Russian equities touched a record, and investor demand rose at a South African government bond auction after yields climbed this week to the highest level since December. A bounce-back in developing-nation assets has lost ground as the U.S. tone on trade soured.

“People are positioned and assets are priced for very bad news on the tariff side but the real impact is still minimal,” said Benjamin Jones, a senior multi-asset strategist at State Street Global Markets in London. “The tariffs that have been proposed would not come into effect until well into 2019 and there is a lot of room for negotiation in the meantime. That there were a lot of exemptions too speaks to Trump trying to grab headlines and the real impact being much lower.”

Not everyone bought into the euphoria:

  • “lingering trade uncertainties are negative for some economies that have strong trade links with China and hurt sentiment for emerging markets as a whole. Currencies of economies like Turkey and Indonesia look to be more vulnerable and I don’t recommend buying emerging markets to clients at this point.”
  • “While the latest round of U.S. tariffs had been well- telegraphed, the 10% and step up to 25% is a pretty bad outcome,” said Nomura fx strategist Dushyant Padmanabhan.
  • “The worsening trade war could cause China to cut reserve ratios for banks again in October and it’s likely to let the yuan weaken further. This doesn’t look good for Asian currencies in general,” said Mingze Wu, an FX trader at INTL FCStone Global Payments in Singapore.

For now, however, the optimists prevail, and a look around the world in FX markets shows that the dollar erased an Asia-session drop after China vowed to retaliate on U.S. tariffs, the yen fell while the China-proxy Aussie and New Zealand dollars led gains in G-10 as they reversed earlier moves. The pound retreated from a six-week high as chances of a November summit on Brexit met warnings over the possibility of a no-deal scenario. Emerging-market currencies gained while the euro fell below the $1.17 handle as Italian bonds slid.

Treasuries slipped as most European government bonds climbed, though Italian debt underperformed after a report of yet more tension over the country’s impending budget

In commodities, oil jumped after from source reports said that Saudi Arabia is said to be comfortable with oil above USD 80/bbl, with crude extending on gains seen in yesterdays trade, additionally WTI broke through its 100DMA to the upside. Russia’s Novak also said the rise in oil to USD 70-80/bbl is temporary and sanction driven, and sees the long term price in the area of USD 50/bbl

In metals markets, gold saw an unwinding of safe-haven premiums driven by trade concerns, with the precious metal down on the day. Industrial metals are also largely negative, with all of copper, tin, aluminium and zinc down by over 0.5% on the day, and copper in the red for the third straight session.

Economic data include NAHB homebuilder sentiment. General Mills, AutoZone are set to report earnings.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 2,900.75
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.1% to 378.74
  • MXAP up 0.8% to 162.24
  • MXAPJ up 0.2% to 515.20
  • Nikkei up 1.4% to 23,420.54
  • Topix up 1.8% to 1,759.88
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.6% to 27,084.66
  • Shanghai Composite up 1.8% to 2,699.95
  • Sensex down 0.2% to 37,523.14
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.4% to 6,161.45
  • Kospi up 0.3% to 2,308.98
  • German 10Y yield fell 1.4 bps to 0.444%
  • Euro up 0.01% to $1.1684
  • Brent Futures down 0.4% to $77.78/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 13.4 bps to 2.486%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 0.5 bps to 1.483%
  • Brent Futures up 1.1% to $78.91/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.3% to $1,198.40
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.03% to 94.53

Top Overnight News

  • U.S. unilateralism, protectionism will hurt interests of both countries and global economy, China Commerce Minister Zhong Shan said, according to a statement on the ministry’s website of comments made at a seminar on Monday
  • China vowed to retaliate after the U.S. said it will impose a 10 percent tariff on about $200 billion in Chinese goods next week and more than double the rate in 2019
  • Plans to send Vice-Premier Liu He to Washington for talks are being reviewed, South China Morning Post reports, citing an unidentified government official in Beijing
  • Australia’s central bank warned on risks to its outlook from U.S.-China trade tensions and weak wages, while reaffirming its next interest-rate move would likely be a hike, according to minutes of the September policy meeting
  • Some EU members may press Ireland to drop its opposition to wide-ranging corporate tax reform in return for the bloc’s backing on Brexit, a person familiar with the matter said
  • Copper slumped with other industrial metals after President Trump ratcheted up the trade war between the world’s two biggest economies. Copper retreated as much as 1.5%

Asian equity markets were mixed with focus centred on the escalation of trade tensions after the US confirmed tariffs on USD 200bln of Chinese imports effective September 24th which will begin at 10% and increase to 25% at year end, while US President Trump also warned that if China retaliates he will immediately pursue tariffs on another USD 267bln of Chinese goods. This pressured ASX 200 (-0.5%) with the index dragged by commodity-related sectors as well as tech stocks following similar underperformance in their US counterparts, while Nikkei 225 (+1.5%) showed resilience on return from its extended weekend amid reports that Japan is to offer measures to lower the trade surplus with US in an effort to avert auto tariffs. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (-0.8%) declined and Shanghai Comp. (-0.1%) traded choppy as participants digested the tariff announcement and a substantial CNY 200bln liquidity effort by the PBoC, with participants also cautious as they await China’s response as Vice Premier Liu He was said to convene a tariff response meeting. Finally, 10yr JGBs were subdued amid gains in Japanese stocks and after the BoJ Rinban announcement for JPY 690bln of JGBs in the belly to super-long end also failed to spur demand.

Top Asia News

  • HSBC Plans Wealth Hiring Spree in CEO’s Bet on Asia’s Rich
  • India Signals Trade War Truce as U.S. Ramps Up Tariffs on China

European equities are currently in the green, as US-China tariff action has been digested as less severe than was first  anticipated with ABN Amro saying that “Given regular FX fluctuations, input prices and flexibility for both importers and exporters to adjust margins somewhat, a 10% import tariff might not have a strong impact on bilateral trade flows”. The DAX is outperforming, whilst the FTSE is the underperformer in Europe with a lack of upside catalysts and softness seen in index heavyweights such as British American Tobacco, ITV and Marks and Spencer. The consumer discretionary sector is lagging its peers, dragged on by Zalando as the co. has issued its second negative guidance revision in as many months.

Top European News

  • Pandora Soars After Report That PE Funds May Buy Jewelry Maker
  • ECB and Deutsche Bank Chiefs Call for Banking Union Completion
  • EU Chiefs to Map Out Post-Brexit Vision This Week, Tusk Says
  • Schibsted to Spin Off International Classifieds Business

In FX, an almost clear divide between winners and losers vs a still generally soft Usd (DXY struggling to sustain rebounds off sub-94.500 lows), with the AUD and NZD leading their major counterparts even though China has now hit back, or at least vowed to fight fire with fire in the latest exchange of import tariffs with the US. Aud/Usd is back on the 0.7200 handle and the Kiwi is hovering just under 0.6600 after little reaction to overnight RBA minutes, and ahead of the latest GDT auction that is expected to extend the run of price declines. The CHF and CAD are next best, with the Franc testing resistance around 0.9600 and Loonie recovering from another dip below 1.3050 following mixed NAFTA comments from Canadian PM Trudeau noting progress towards a deal with the US, but a determination to stand firm by its demands from a renegotiated accord. The EUR, JPY and GBP have all been choppy vs the Greenback, with the single currency attempting to build on recovery gains beyond 1.1700, but retreating relatively sharply on the Beijing verbal retaliation, while Usd/Jpy was absorbing offers at 112.25 before reversing to sub-112.00 levels again on the same wire headlines. Note also, hefty option expiries may exert influence for both pairs into the NY cut, with 1.1 bn in Eur/Usd at the 1.1680 strike and 1.3 bn at 112.00 in Usd/Jpy. Elsewhere, Cable was climbing steadily above 1.3150 before stalling on the aforementioned strike back by China, but also more Brexit banter from all sides. EM – Amidst a raft of rhetoric from Asia and South East Asia about trade wars, sanctions and local currency depreciation, the Lira has emerged weaker yet again, with Usd/Try up to circa 6.3800 at one stage and hardly reacting to more intervention via the CBRT jacking up its RRR to 13% from 7%. Conversely, the Zar and Rub are benefiting from the broadly softer Dollar.

In commodities, oil is benefitting from source reports suggesting that Saudi Arabia is said to be comfortable with oil above USD 80/bbl, with the fossil fuel extending on gains seen in yesterdays trade, additionally WTI broke through its 100DMA to the upside. Russia’s Novak also said the rise in oil to USD 70-80/bbl is temporary and sanction driven, and sees the long term price in the area of USD 50/bbl. In metals markets, gold is seeing an unwinding of safe-haven premiums driven by trade concerns, with the precious metal down on the day. Industrial metals are also largely negative, with all of copper, tin, aluminium and zinc down by over 0.5% on the day, and copper in the red for the third straight session.

On today’s calendar, it’s another sparse day ahead for data with no releases of note in Europe and just the September NAHB housing market index release in the US to watch. Away from that the ECB’s Draghi, Villeroy and Nouy will all speak at an event in Paris however the main action comes away from that with the three-day summit between the leaders of North and South Korea, the UN General Assembly opening, EU Chief Brexit Negotiator Michel Barnier briefing EU affairs ministers in Brussels and Italy’s Finance Minister Giovanni Tria speaking at an event in Milan. Clearly developments between China and the US concerning tariffs will be a big focus also.

US Event Calendar

  • 10am: NAHB Housing Market Index, est. 66, prior 67
  • 4pm: Total Net TIC Flows, prior $114.5b
  • 4pm: Net Long-term TIC Flows, prior $36.5b deficit

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

The highlights yesterday were the negative bias to the global trade story, the sell-off in US tech, and the further rally in Italian BTPs. The latest trade related headlines (detailed yesterday) seemed to dominate the early tempo in Europe as markets nudged lower at the open however more incrementally positive news around Italy’s budget and a lack of any more follow through on the trade news flow at least helped markets to fight back with the STOXX 600 ending +0.12%. However, the US session was once again dictated by tech as the NASDAQ (-1.43%) and the NYFANG indices (-2.20%) fell with the S&P 500 (-0.56%) declining in sympathy. Amazon (-3.16%), Apple (-2.66%) and Netflix (-3.90%) were standouts with the first two having their worst day since 24 April and 20 April respectively.

Just after the bell, it was back to the trade war however. Indeed, President Trump formally announced the implementation of the next round of punitive tariffs on imports from China. The levies will take effect on 24 September and will cover $200bn of goods, including some consumer goods. The initial tariff rate will be 10%, rising to 25% on 1 Jan 2019. This is somewhat more  severe than the market had anticipated, given recent speculation for an outright rate of 10%, and the tone of the statement was somewhat hawkish, including an assertion that “if China takes retaliatory action against our farmers or other industries,  we will immediately pursue phase three, which is tariffs on approximately $267bn of additional imports.”

We haven’t seen any retaliation from China overnight however Vice Premier Liu He is due to hold a meeting in Beijing at any moment to discuss a possible response. Reuters is also unsurprisingly reporting that China will not send a trade delegation to Washington now. As for markets, well the declines for Chinese bourses are fairly modest with the Shanghai Comp and CSI 300 down -0.12% and -0.10% respectively – albeit the former still the lowest since November 2014. The Hang Seng is -0.74% while the Kospi is +0.08%. The Nikkei has actually reopened with a +1.51% rally. Elsewhere the CNY (-0.10%) has pared heavier losses while the likes of the Indonesian Rupiah (-0.36%) and Malaysian Ringgit (-0.17%) are weaker but also only modestly so. US equity futures are down -0.09%.

So worth keeping an eye on all that this morning and a possible China response. Back to yesterday now though where the story in bond markets was another crossing of the 3% level for the 10y Treasury intraday – touching a high of 3.020% but closing just below that at 2.989% and -0.7bps on the day. That’s a decent microcosm of the year so far for Treasuries really. Prior to this go they’ve made 3 attempts at trying to hold above 3%. In April they closed above that level for just 1 day, in May they closed above for 7 sessions in succession (the longest streak so far), and then in August they closed above for just 1 session again. In the May and August instances yields fell as much as 33bps and 20bps from the >3% highs. For the record DB think we’ll hit 3.50% by year end so we think we’ll break out through 3% at some point soon.

Here in Europe all the action in bonds (and equities) were once again in Italy. 2y and 10y BTP yields fell 16.2bps and 13.7bps respectively to close at the lowest since July 25th and August 1st respectively. Bond markets outside of Italy were broadly flat while the FTSE MIB ended +1.08%. Driving this was a story out of Corriere della Sera shortly after we went to print yesterday suggesting that Finance Minister Tria was targeting an upper-limit on the budget deficit of 1.6%. As a reminder, Italy has until the 27th to update its fiscal targets. Our economists note that press reports suggest that officials are still not yet decided on the final target but there’s little doubt that the incremental newsflow has turned more and more positive in recent weeks. As you’ll see in the day ahead, Tria is due to speak today in Milan so it’ll be worth seeing if he confirms the story.

Elsewhere EM FX had a mostly non-eventful first day of the week yesterday with the asset class flat (index closing 0.00%). The MSCI EM Equities index did however end -1.18%. The moves in FX did hide another -2.32% slide for the Turkish Lira however with the news that President Erdogan had called for the opposition party’s stake in Isbank – the largest listed Turkish lender by assets – to be transferred to the Treasury. As well as that Bloomberg also reported that Turkey was looking at measures to support banks with a high stock of bad loans emanating from the collapse in the Lira. The suggested proposals included transferring NPLs to a state-designed entity. One to watch.

As for the other snippets of news yesterday, there were big headlines to come out of the IMF review of a no-deal Brexit including “substantial costs for the UK economy.” Separately, articles in Politico and Reuters suggested that the EU and UK negotiators are working ever-closer to a deal. The articles did not contain any substantive new information, but they did suggest that the tone of negotiations are productive. Most likely, officials will agree to something vague at their Thursday summit, which will be sufficient for Theresa May to claim victory ahead of the 30 Sep – 3 Oct conservative party conference and for negotiators to reach a more formal, but probably still incomplete, exit agreement by November. The Pound certainly seems to share this rosy view, rallying +0.68% yesterday and +3.62% off its August trough.

In the US, Richard Clarida was sworn in yesterday as Federal Reserve Vice Chairman, in time to join the FOMC at their 25-26 policy meeting. We expect Clarida’s views to be close to the existing centre of the committee. In other central bank speak, the ECB’s Benoit Coeure gave an interesting speech about forward guidance, in which he supported the policy and suggested that the Governing Council could, in future, expand forward guidance to “clarify the pace with which policy makers expect to remove policy accommodation beyond the timing to lift-off.” So nothing new about the first rate hike (our economists expect September 2019), but could be relevant next year when the market begins to look beyond that first hike.

On the economic data front, yesterday was relatively quiet. European August inflation was confirmed at 1.0% core and 2.0% headline, as expected. The September US Empire State Manufacturing Survey ticked lower to 19.0 (a positive value indicates expansion). Tomorrow, we’ll get the Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey, which will give another data point for third quarter activity. In August, these two series diverged by the most since 2012, so the Philly index could be due for a bounce-back to further close the gap after the Empire’s soft miss.

In terms of what to look out for today, it’s another sparse day ahead for data with no releases of note in Europe and just the September NAHB housing market index release in the US to watch. Away from that the ECB’s Draghi, Villeroy and Nouy will all speak at an event in Paris however the main action comes away from that with the three-day summit between the leaders of North and South Korea, the UN General Assembly opening, EU Chief Brexit Negotiator Michel Barnier briefing EU affairs ministers in Brussels and Italy’s Finance Minister Giovanni Tria speaking at an event in Milan. Clearly developments between China and the US concerning tariffs will be a big focus also.

 

 

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i) TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: Shanghai closed UP 48.16 POINTS OR 1.82%   /Hang Sang CLOSED UP 151.81 POINTS OR 0.56%/   / The Nikkei closed UP 325.87 POINTS OR 1.41%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.39%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.8685 AS POBC RESUMES  ITS HUGE DEVALUATION  /DELEGATION COMING TO THE USA TO SEE TRUMP IN NOVEMBER/Oil DOWN to 69.79 dollars per barrel for WTI and 78.95 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN //.  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AT 6.8685 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8751: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS RESUMES// TRADE TALKS NOT DOING TOO GOOD   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING  STRONGER AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING  WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

 

North Korea/South Korea/USA/China

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

 
END

3C CHINA

China retaliates by issuing a levy on basically all remaining USA imports totaling $60 billion.  China want to stop the trade war and sent a little olive branch by lowering the increase by 5 to 10%.  The USA was not enthralled as the dollar fell badly.

(courtesy zerohedge)

China Retaliates: Beijing To Levy $60BN In Tariffs On

US Goods Effective Sept 24

Just as Donald Trump was further threats aimed at Beijing after he launched another $200BN in tariffs targeting Chinese imports, and warning that “there will be great and fast economic retaliation against China if our farmers, ranchers and/or industrial workers are targeted!”, China’s Ministry of Finance issued a statement disclosing that it would retaliate by levying tariffs on another $60BN in US goods (effectively covering all US imports with tariffs), which would take effect from Sept. 24 at 12:01 p.m.

While the retaliation was expected, in what appears to be an olive branch to Trump, Beijing said that it would impose a 10% tariff rate on goods that it previously listed at a 25% rate, and a 5% rate for goods that previously were seen as being in the 10% rate bucket.

Here are the highlights, from Reuters and Bloomberg:

  • CHINA SAYS NEW TARIFFS ON U.S. GOODS EFFECTIVE AT 1201 LOCAL HOURS ON SEPT 24
  • CHINA TO LEVY TARIFFS ON $60B U.S. GOODS
  • CHINA SAYS TO LEVY TARIFF RATES RANGING BETWEEN 5 TO 10 PERCENT ON U.S. GOODS
  • CHINA SAYS NEW TARIFFS WILL BE LEVIED ON 5,207 U.S. PRODUCTS, UNCHANGED FROM INITIAL PROPOSAL

China also said that if the US insists on raising tariffs rates on Chinese goods (from 10% to 25% or more), China would respond accordingly, but noted that it hopes to stop trade frictions and hold a constructive dialogue.

The full statement, google translated:

According to the “Notice of the Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council on Adding Tariffs to Certain Imported Goods Originating in the United States (Second Batch)” (Announcement of the Taxation Committee [2018] No. 6), the relevant implementation matters are hereby announced as follows:

1. For the goods of the Taxation Commission [2018] No. 6 attached to the list of tariffed goods of the United States and Canada, the customs duty shall be imposed from 12:01 on September 24, 2018, and 2,493 tax items listed in Annex 1 shall be The 1078 tariff items listed in Annex 2 are subject to a 10% tariff, and 5% of the 974 tax items listed in Annex 3 and 662 items of tax items listed in Annex 4 are subject to a 5% tariff.

2. Other matters shall be implemented in accordance with the Notice of the Taxation Committee [2018] No. 6.

The Chinese State Council also issued the following announcement justifying the new tariffs (google translated):

On July 11, 2018, the US government announced a 10% tariff on goods imported from China of about 200 billion US dollars. On August 2, the tax rate was increased to 25%. On September 18, 2018, the US government announced the implementation of measures to impose tariffs on imports of approximately US$200 billion from China. Since September 24, 2018, the tariff rate has been increased by 10%, from January 1, 2019. The tariff rate has been increased to 25%. The US has been willing to go its own way, leading to escalating trade friction between China and the United States. In order to defend free trade and the multilateral system and defend its legitimate rights and interests, China has to impose tariff measures on the announced list of about 60 billion US dollars of goods.

According to the “People’s Republic of China Foreign Trade Law”, “People’s Republic of China Import and Export Tariff Regulations” and other laws and regulations and the basic principles of international law, the State Council’s Customs Tariff Commission decided to produce 5,207 tax items and about 60 billion US dollars of goods originating in the United States. , 10% or 5% tariff is imposed, starting from 12:01 on September 24, 2018. If the US insists on further increasing the tariff rate, the Chinese side will respond accordingly and the relevant matters will be announced separately.

The Chinese side reiterated that the purpose of implementing the above-mentioned tariff increase measures is to curb the escalation of trade frictions. It is a forced response to US unilateralism and trade protectionism. China hopes that the US side will stop trade frictions. China and the United States will adopt equality, integrity and pragmatism. Dialogue, mutual respect, and jointly safeguard the overall interests of bilateral economic and trade relations of mutual benefit and win-win, jointly safeguard the principle of free trade and the multilateral trading system, and jointly promote the prosperity and development of the world economy.

The dollar tumbled on the news…

… while US equity futures dropped, fading most of this morning’s gains.

end

The Government of China wanted to cool the red hot real estate market so they got investors to dive into the rental property business.  This now has backfired because rents are skyrocketing

(courtesy zerohedge)

Rents Soar As Chinese Plan To Cool Real Estate Bubble Backfires

Beijing has been trying to calm its bubbly real estate market with policies that divert investor funds into China’s rental market. But the policy shift to increase the supply of rental housing has backfired, leaving most middle-class Chinese with a rapid increase in living expenses. The reason: the government’s latest centrally planned initiative has had an unintended effect: a flood of property investors into the rental market has dramatically pushed up prices.

This summer, rents in eleven major Chinese cities climbed by an average of over 20% Y/Y in July according to an August 22 report by Chinese newspaper 21st Century Business Herald, citing data from CityHouse.cn.

The most significant increase did not occur in the capital of Beijing – the capital ranked sixth place among the eleven cities, with an increase of about 22%. Chengdu, the capital of southwestern China’s Sichuan Province, had the largest uptick, of more than 31%; followed by 30.7% for Guangzhou, a port city in southern China; and 30.5% for Shenzhen which borders on Hong Kong.

The sudden spike in rental prices has placed a heavy burden for many middle- and low-income workers said Reuters. While President Xi Jinping promised to support these people, they are now forced to seek smaller homes and are relocating to less desirable neighborhoods because of housing affordability issues.

Reuters said real estate investment firms are flushed with cash and have jumped into the rental market all at once “thanks” to the government’s instruction. As a result, many of these companies have been aggressively acquiring or developing hundreds of thousands of rental homes in the past year, affording them oligopolistic pricing power.

Here is the results: in 2017, Wang Zhilu, 23, rented a flat in a mid-tier Beijing neighborhood for 3,000 yuan ($438.17) per month. In less than 12 months, he now pays 4,500 yuan for a similar apartment down the street. That represents a near 50% increase in rent which Zhilu said caused him financial harm.

* * *

Soaring rents across major Chinese cities is dangerous for the communist regime. Widespread public frustration is growing as the cost of living outpaces salary growth for many young people, which if history serves for any government, could trigger a severe social uprising, something that Beijing has always tried to avoid.

“Rent now makes up about 30 percent of my salary while my housing condition is worse,” said Tian Enyu, a 35-year-old divorced office manager in Beijing.

Putting the “rent to income” ratio in context, 30% of middle- and or a low-income workers’ salary is the upper extreme of what they should pay for rent on a per annum basis, leaving them the ability to cover other expenses. Once 30% is breached, financial stress starts to affect the monetary decisions of the working class, and usually results in social change.

But the bigger take home is that Beijing’s attempts to control the formerly overheating housing market – and drive speculators into rental properties – is another instance of government intervention in markets failing to generate the desired outcome.

But why did developers flood the rental market? Simple: blame the ‘window guidance’ of central planners who effectively instructed investors to pile into the rental housing sector. The result are clear:

  • Ziroom, which is owned by Zuo Hui, chairman of the Chinese real estate broker Lianjia, raised 4 billion yuan ($582 million) in January from investors including Tencent Holdings, Warburg Pincus and Sequoia Capital.
  • GIC Private Limited, a sovereign wealth fund established by the Government of Singapore, launched a 4.3 billion yuan ($625 million) venture with Nova Property Investment in May to acquire rental apartments in major Chinese cities.
  • Tiger Global Management, an American hedge fund and family office, led a $70 million financing round in June for Danke, a Beijing-based rental flat operator.

Reuters said Ziroom had controlled about half a million rooms in China and commanded a market share of 30% at the end of 2017. Xiangyu, a rental firm owned by 5I5J, was a close second with a 27 percent share.

Approximately 1.66 million rooms were owned or managed by rental companies and developers at the end of last year.

Ziroom and Xiangyu typically buy units from property owners. They then quickly renovate the properties and rent them out at a premium, which some experts tell Reuters its a “forced upgrade” for tenants.

“These companies are very aggressive in securing flats this year,” said Yu Runze, who leased his two-bedroom Beijing apartment to Ziroom for 7,800 yuan a month in May after rejecting an offer from Xiangyu.

The rent that Xiangyu charges is often double the price that it pays to flat owners for their properties, said Zhang Yongjing, a former property agent with 5I5J in northern Shanxi province’s capital, Taiyuan.

Meanwhile, even though rental companies have been widely accused of driving up prices, a lack of regulations means that government overseers have limited mobility to act on pricing or enforce rules. A housing ministry source told Reuters that the government does not have an official rent tracking system, though it is “closely monitoring the situation”.

According to Hu Jinghui, a former vice president at 5I5J, there are about a million homes available for rent in Beijing, but homeowners have left them empty and decided to speculate on market trends.

As one would expect, bubble growth in a sector with limited government oversight has created unexpected financial risks. Dingjia, a Hangzhou-based rental company, went bankrupt in August due to what its chief executive called an aggressive market expansion.

Meanwhile, Beijing appears to remain blind to the risks: a source at one of China’s top banks told Reuters they had not received any guidance to tighten financing to the sector. Sources close to the government, who also requested anonymity, said that they were unaware of any major change in policy despite the rising risks.

“The market is neither balanced nor transparent,” said a source at the Ministry of Land and Resources. But “if Xi doesn’t say something needs to be done, these ministries won’t do anything.”

And that is why Chinese rents will only keep rising until some breaking point is finally reached.

end

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

Germany

Merkel faces a new problem as she plans to fire her spy chief who defied her

(courtesy zerohedge)

Merkel Faces New Cabinet Crisis Over Plan To Fire Germany’s Spy Chief Who Defied Her

Chancellor Angela Merkel has decided to fire Germany’s domestic intelligence chief as she thinks he has meddled in day-to-day politics by questioning her condemnation of far-right protests, Die Welt reported, pushing her cabinet into another clash over migration toward a showdown, and potentially into yet another government crisis.

Hans-Georg Maassen, head of the BfV domestic intelligence agency and is also the federal agency that tracks and combats “anti-democratic extremists”, has come under fire after he cast doubt on the authenticity of video footage showing far-right protesters chasing migrants after the fatal stabbing of a German man, Reuters reported.

Maassen publicly defied Merkel by suggesting that an August video of far-right unrest in eastern Germany that she described as “hunting” of foreigners might be fake. And while Merkel’s Social Democratic coalition partner quickly pressed her and the interior ministry (which oversees the BfV) to fire Maassen, but Germany’s Interior Minister Horst Seehofer, and former Merkel ally, has publicly backed Hans-Georg Maassen.

This latest crisis shows how “barely six months into her fourth term, Merkel’s renewed power struggle with Interior Minister Horst Seehofer shows how fallout from the 2015-16 migration crisis is stalking her government and shaping her legacy” according to Bloomberg.

Why is this seen as another crisis for Merkel’s troubled cabinet? Because if Merkel does pull the trigger and fires Maassen, that would disavow Seehofer, who heads Bavaria’s ruling CSU party and has been the main domestic critic of her decision to keep Germany’s borders open. To be sure, there is already at least one precedent: Merkel stared down Seehofer in a government crisis this summer over turning back asylum seekers at the border, and won even though Seehofer could have held out and collapsed Merkel’s cabinet.

Meanwhile, CSU leaders are scrambling to restore their populist support and have been sniping at Merkel ahead of a state election on Oct. 14 in Bavaria, where polls suggest the party will decline to a historic low amid surging support for the anti-immigration Alternative for Germany. Such a setback would risk reigniting full-scale conflict in Merkel’s party bloc, which consists of her Christian Democratic Union and the smaller CSU.

Asked about the Die Welt report during an official visit to Algeria on Monday, Merkel told reporters she wouldn’t go beyond her comment on Friday “that the clash won’t break up her coalition” although others aren’t so sure and while far under the radar, this latest development in Germany may have far broader implications to the fate of Europe.

Still, as Bloomberg’s Richard Jones notes, Merkel’s problems with the CSU are well-known by investors. And while this latest threat is causing some excitement among political commentators, investors have learned over the years not to count Merkel out. “This current episode could very well be the latest evidence of her resilience.”

On Tuesday, Merkel will convene coalition leaders to try to resolve the standoff. Merkel had said on Friday that her coalition government would survive the row over Maassen

end

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Syria

A massive attack on Syria last night.  It was either the uSA or Israel that launched this huge escalation

(courtesy zerohedge)

Massive Sustained Attack On Syria: Russian S-400 Defenses Possibly Active In Huge Escalation

update: The Pentagon has formally denied that tonight’s massive sustained attack on Syria had US involvement.

US-funded VOA News reports a Pentagon spokesman issuing the following statement: “I can unequivocally say this is not us,” said Navy Cmdr. Sean Robertson.

Regional sources report, citing Syrian officials, that Monday night’s attack involved “cruise missiles fired from the sea”.

Carla Babb

✔@CarlaBabbVOA

Pentagon spokesman Navy Cmdr. Sean Robertson tells VOA on Syrian claims of engaging missile targets over “I can unequivocally say this is not us.” @VOANews

* * *

Earlier:

Another attack on Syria has occurred tonight on multiple locations in what is the largest sustained series of what are believed to be Israeli or possibly US air strikes in months. But hugely significant is that early reports suggest Russia’s S-400 anti-missile missile defense system engaged the inbound rockets.

On Monday night Syrian state-run SANA confirmed multiple missiles fired “from the sea into Lattakia city” in “an aggression from unknown source” which state media says involved successful intercepts by Syrian missile defense.

British-Syrian journalist Danny Makki, currently reporting from the ground, says the attack lasted for a total of 1 hour 30 minutes” and missiles soared over four cities including Latakia, Tartus, Homs and Hama — with rockets and explosions lighting up the sky especially over the coastal towns. 

Though it appears another Israeli strike – as it came less than two days following an attack near Damascus – the details are still unknown, and some observers are speculating it could be an American attack, given that at least some of the missiles were fired from the sea.

SANA reports “an aggression on Lattakia has targeted the Technical Industries’ establishment” adding that “the air defenses intercepted and downed a number of the missiles”.

Multiple journalists in the region further said that Syrian air defenses were activated across four provinces including Latakia and Tartus on the coast, as well as over Homs and Hama which are more inland.

The initial major strike on Latakia, located on the Syrian coast, reportedly targeted a Syrian Scientific Research Center (SSRC) facility, and newly published video and images from Syrian sources show massive fireballs lighting up the sky.

View image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on Twitter

maytham@maytham956

Danny Makki@Dannymakkisyria

Video footage showing the impact of missile strike this evening near ,

But significantly the location of the strike is in the vicinity of Russia’s Hmeymim airbase, and there are early unconfirmed reports that Russia engaged the inbound assault via its advanced S-400 system.

Israel Breaking@IsraelBreaking

BREAKING: Missile strikes target infrastructure in Latakia, Syria short time ago. Reports attributing attack to Israel.

According to the Middle East Institute’s Charles Lister“Reports suggest Russia air defenses in Hmeymim participated in attempting to repel tonight’s strikes in Latakia.”

Lister continued, “*IF* that’s true, that’d be a significant development. Some reports also say strikes came from sea; leading to accusations of a U.S naval cruise missile attack.”

Unconfirmed local eyewitness accounts say that two hostile aircraft were shot down during the lengthy assault.

A number of videos are circulating on Syrian social media which purport to show successful Syria or Russian missile defense intercepts during the sustained attacks.

Aghiad AL Kheder@aghiad_alkheder

The air defenses in sky. Assad supporters said there were two planes shot down
No confirmation

As yet, there’s been no confirmation of who carried out the attack; however, a report early this month cited Tel Aviv sources who confirmed that Israel’s Air Force has conducted 200 attacks on locations inside Syria over the course of the past 2 years alone, according to Reuters.

The major escalation comes just after Russia’s Vladimir Putin and his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan met Monday to announce that a demilitarized zone in Idlib will be formed by October 15.

Developing…

end

Syria/Turkey

Turkey and Russia sign an agreement for a demilitarized zone in Idlib province.  Within hours, the Israelis with possible help from France and the USA attacked Latakia. Israel does not want any deal as it wants the removal of all Iranian interests inside Syria.

(courtesy zerohedge)

The Major Attack On Syria Followed Putin-Erdogan Agreement For Demilitarized Zone In Idlib

The world once again was taken to the brink of World War 3 Monday night, and the situation is still extremely dangerous. A massive wide-ranging assault on multiple Syrian provinces, including the coastal cities of Latakia and Tartus, occurred Monday evening reportedly by Israel and possibly with the help of France or the US, though the Pentagon is denying any US assistance during the assault.

With Syrian and Russian air defenses responding during the over hour-long attack which targeted among other things an alleged chemical weapons research center, and in the confusion of missiles cross the sky, a Russian maritime patrol plane was shot down with 14 personnel on board. The Pentagon is claiming it was Syrian defense which “accidentally” downed the plane, while Russia is pointing out its radar observed a French frigate firing in the area just before the plane went down.(Harvey:  actually it was the Syrians who knocked down the plane)

Regardless, this is an incredibly dangerous situation which puts world powers closer to major war. And crucially, the whole event came immediately after Russia and Turkey announced they’ve agreed to establish a “demilitarized zone” around Idlib.

Before talks in Sochi on September 17, via AP.The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced just hours before the reported Israeli attack was initiated that Russia and Turkey have agreed to establish a 15-20km demilitarized zone along Syrian government positions.

This means the widely reported Syrian-Russian offensive is off for the time being, according to the Russian MoD.

But this raises the following questions given the timing of Monday’s night’s escalation: with Putin negotiating for a ‘world power deescalation’ over Idlib after the US threatened attack, was Monday’s attack part of an Israeli (and Western allies) strategy for keeping regime change in Damascus on the table? Why escalate now? 

View image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on Twitter

Danny Makki@Dannymakkisyria

The skyline of #Tartus this evening after multiple strikes & Syrian air defenses clearly active. #Syria

This at the very least appears a conscious effort to keep the fires burning in Syria, to prevent Putin from being in the driver’s seat, and to continue to provoke hostilities with the Tehran-Damascus axis,and to further keep alive the possibility of the eventual military ouster of Assad.

After Monday’s meeting with President Erdogan in Sochi, Putin related to reporters the details of the Russia-Turkey-Syria demilitarization deal: “At the meeting, we discussed in detail this situation (in the Idlib governorate) and decided to establish a 15-20km-wide demilitarized zone along the contact line between government troops and the armed opposition by October 15, 2018 and evacuate radical militants, including Jabhat al-Nusra,” he said.

Putin explained that at the Turkish president’s initiative, there will be a planned “withdrawal from this zone heavy weapons, tanks, multiple missile launcher systems, artillery systems and mortars of all opposition groups” by October 10″. “Control in the demilitarized zone will be exercised by mobile patrol groups of Turkish units and units of Russian military police,” Putin said.

He added that the sides agreed to “resume transit traffic along the Aleppo-Latakia and Aleppo-Hama highways by the end of 2018, also at the initiative of the Turkish side.”

“Russia and Turkey are working closely to resolve the Syrian crisis, to strengthen the ceasefire and improve the humanitarian situation,” Putin said. Putin further said the deal involves Syria agreeing to “coordinated solutions,” but that the details of the deal are still being worked out with Damascus.

“In general, the Syrian leadership supports this approach,” he said. “We will hold additional consultations with the Syrian authorities soon.”

“Russia and Turkey reiterated their commitment to continue anti-terrorism efforts in Syria in any of its forms or manifestations,” Putin stressed. “We agreed that practical implementation of the steps we plan will give a fresh impetus to the process of political settlement of the Syrian conflict and will make it possible to invigorate efforts in the Geneva format and will help restore peace in Syria.”

Putin also emphasized that the sides will work together to root out terrorists across Syria.

But given Monday night’s massive escalation, it doesn’t appear Israel or its Western allies want to see to this deal take effect.

end

SYRIA/ISRAEL/RUSSIA

Moscow accuses Israel of using a Russian reconnaissance plane as cover during a Syrian attack in Latakia.  That plan was shot down by the Syrians by mistake.  Tensions are now rising. Israel will do anything to get rid of the Iranians inside Syria.

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

 

Moscow Accuses Israel Of Using Downed Russian Jet As “Cover” During Syrian Attack

As more information about the downing overnight of a Russian reconnaissance plane by aging Syrian antiaircraft weapon becomes available, the Russian Defense Ministry has issued a shocking claim that will undoubtedly ratchet up tensions between Russia and Israel. While Russia had previously blamed Israel for the downing of the plane, which resulted in the deaths of 15 Russian servicemen, the MoD is now saying that Israel intended to use the Russian plane as “cover” during the attack.

Russia

According to the Russian military, the plane was shot down while responding to an attack by four Israeli F-16s on Syrian government positions in the coastal town of Lattakia. The attack was the latest of some 200 attacks launched by the Israelis over the past 18 months with the stated aim of preventing Iran from expanding its foothold in war-torn Syria.

Israeli jets flew over the Mediterranean to launch the attack, only giving Russia a minutes’ notice via a shared hotline before commencing the strike. This allowed the Russian military no time to pull its planes and personnel from the line of fire.

Now, a spokesman for the Russian Ministry of Defense is saying that Russia believes the attack was a set-up, with Israeli hoping to use the Russian plane as badly needed cover from Syrian air defenses. Since the Russian plane had much higher profile than the Israeli plane, the Syrian defense systems would naturally latch on to the Il-20.

The Israeli pilots used the Russian plane as cover and set it up to be targeted by the Syrian air defense forces. As a consequence, the Il-20, which has radar cross-section much larger than the F-16, was shot down by an S-200 system missile,” the statement said.

Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu discussed the incident with his Israeli counterpart, Avigdor Lieberman, on Tuesday.  He conveyed Moscow’s anger about the incident and its blaming of the Israeli military for setting up purportedly setting up the Russian plan to be shot down by aging Syrian air defenses.

Russia said a French Navy frigate, the Auvergne, was in the area of the attack along with the downed Russian Il-20 plane during the Israeli operation.

In a statement, the Russian military accused Israel of not leaving Russian forces enough time to respond to their warning about the attack. A search-and-rescue operation is underway, but so far only body parts have been recovered.

The Russian ministry said the Israelis must have known that the Russian plane was present in the area, but this did not stop them from executing “the provocation.”Israel also failed to warn Russia about the planned operation in advance. The warning came just a minute before the attack started, which “did not leave time to move the Russian plane to a safe area,” the statement said.

[…]

A later update said debris from the downed plane was found some 27 kilometers off the Lattakia coast. The search party collected some body parts, personal possessions of the crew, and fragments of the plane.

Israel did not comment on the reports about the air raid in Syria, which is consistent with its usual policy on such matters. Israeli officials earlier acknowledged hundreds of airstrikes conducted in Syria over the past years. Israel claims its interventions are necessary to fight the Iranian presence in its neighboring country.

Israel’s Embassy in Moscow has refused to comment on Russian Military’s statement on Il-20 crash.

The Russian Il-20 was accidentally shot down by an aging Syrian S-200 antiaircraft missile system during the chaos as Russia scrambled planes to respond to the attack. Russian radar also registered missile launches from the French frigate, but it’s unclear how this factored into the attack, if at all.

Syria

This isn’t the first time that Israel has pushed tensions to the brink of an all-out war as it has repeatedly intervened in Syria despite warnings from Russia and its allies. However, with 15 dead service-members on their hands, Russia has threatened to “respond adequately” to the attack. We now wait to see what Putin will do next.

END

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

7  OIL ISSUES

Expect oil to drop to around $65.00 per barrel on the back of extra mainenance work at all of the uSA refiners

(courtesy Irina Slav/OilPrice.com)

 

Why WTI Could Crash In The Coming Weeks

Authored by Irina Slav via Oilprice.com,

West Texas Intermediate could drop to US$65 a barrel later this year on the back of extra maintenance work at U.S. refineries, Tom Kloza from the Oil Price Information Service has warned.

Speaking on CNBC, Kloza said this maintenance season was the last chance for many refineries to hop on the new bunker fuel train by boosting their capacity for low-sulfur diesel and fuel oil.

“The next six to seven weeks we’re going to see demand for crude drop by about 1 to 1.5 million barrels a day. It’s refinery maintenance season,” Kloza said.

The new bunker fuel emission rules, effective from 2020, stipulate that only vessels using fuels with sulfur content of 0.5 percent or less will be allowed to roam the oceans. The change is part of the International Maritime Organization’s strategy to cut carbon emissions from maritime transport by half by 2050.

The change has been touted as beneficial for refiners that are equipped to produce low-sulfur fuel oil and diesel, as well as LNG producers. Yet the adjustment will take time, and during this time demand for crude will be lower. How serious the effect on WTI prices will be remains to be seen, however.

For starters, many of those following WTI must have already factored in maintenance season and winter as weakening demand press down on prices. True, Kloza’s comment that this maintenance season will have a more severe impact on prices makes sense, but this additional maintenance should not come as a surprise to market watchers: there has been a lot of coverage about the IMO fuel rules and there’s likely to be even more in the run-up to its entry into effect.

Another thing that could curb the downside effect on maintenance season is hurricane season: Florence has hit demand for oil products but, one analyst told Market Watch, there will be demand destruction in the short term, but a surge in demand in a few weeks when [the region] starts to rebuild.”In other words, amid refinery season, rebuilding what Florence has damaged will apply counter pressure on prices, possibly curbing the decline.

Then there are the Iran sanctions, of course, the ace among bullish oil price factors that analysts and commentators have been waving in the market’s face since May. The United States is still trying to get its international allies to cut their imports of Iranian oil to zero even in the face of evidence that this will not be possible. The latest update in this respect suggests that there will be no waivers for countries that want to continue importing Iranian crude, even though earlier this year, senior Washington officials had said that waivers would be considered on a case-by-case basis.

So, in this context, the effect of additional refinery maintenance work on WTI prices could be limited, especially if the Iran-related signals from Washington continue in the same vein. Price trends have repeatedly demonstrated that benchmarks are equally strongly affected by fundamentals and geopolitical events that may or may not affect these fundamentals. As for Iran, there have been numerous assurances from OPEC and Russia that they will step up production to make up for lost Iranian crude. This should quell worry about supply, but it has not, so the upside potential for WTI remains as the U.S. benchmark tends to follow Brent, which will benefit from the sanctions even more: Kloza expects it at US$80 a barrel in the last quarter of the year.

end

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES.

VENEZUELA

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:00 am

Euro/USA 1.1683 UP .0014/ REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES  IN THE GREEN 

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 112.12   UP 0.432  (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL

GBP/USA 1.3135 DOWN   0.0009  (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED

USA/CAN 1.3034  DOWN .0030(CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS TUESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE by 14 basis point, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1659; / Last night Shanghai composite CLOSED UP 48.16 POINTS OR 1.82%  /Hang Sang CLOSED UP 151.81 POINTS OR 0.56% /AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN  0.39% / EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN

 

 

The NIKKEI: this TUESDAY morning CLOSED  UP 325.87 POINTS OR 1.41% 

 

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

1/EUROPE OPENED ALL GREEN 

 

 

 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang UP 151,81 POINTS OR 0.56%  /SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 48.16 POINTS OR  1.82%

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.39%

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 325.87 POINTS OR 1.41% 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1200.65

silver:$14.20

Early TUESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.99% !!! UP 0 IN POINTS from MONDAY night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

The 30 yr bond yield 3.14 UP 1  IN BASIS POINTS from MONDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 94.56 UP 7  CENT(S) from MONDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers TUESDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

 

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.85% UP 2    in basis point(s) yield from MONDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.12%  UP 0 BASIS POINTS from MONDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/EXTREMELY VOLATILE YESTERDAY

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.50% UP 1  IN basis point yield from MONDAY/

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.79 DOWN 19   POINTS in basis point yield from MONDAY/

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 129 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES UP TO +.48%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY

Closing currency crosses for TUESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1693 UP .0063(Euro UP 24 Basis points/ represents to DRAGHI A COMPLETE POLICY FAILURE/

USA/Japan: 112.31 UP 0.619 Yen DOWN 62 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3157 UP .0011( POUND UP 11 BASIS POINTS)

USA/Canada 1.2977  Canadian dollar UP 86  Basis points AS OIL ROSE TO $69.79

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

This afternoon, the Euro was ROSE BY 24 BASIS POINTS  to trade at 1.1693

The Yen FELL to 112.31 for a LOSS of 62 Basis points as NIRP is STILL a big failure for the Japanese central bank/HELICOPTER MONEY IS NOW DELAYED/BANK OF JAPAN NOW WORRIED AS AS THEY ARE RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY AS BOND YIELDS RISE

The POUND GAINED 11 basis points, trading at 1.3157/

The Canadian dollar GAINED 86 basis points to 1.3019/ WITH WTI OIL RISING TO 69.79

The USA/Yuan,CNY closed DOWN AT 6.8616-  ON SHORE  (YUAN UP)

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.8643 (  YUAN UP)

TURKISH LIRA:  6.3360

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.12%   UP 0  BASIS POINT FROM YESTERDAY

 

 

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield UP 5  IN basis points from MONDAY at 3.04 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.18 UP 6  in basis points on the day /

THE RISE IN BOTH THE 10 YR AND THE 30 YR ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR VALUATIONS

Your closing USA dollar index, 94.49 UP 2 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for TUESDAY: 1:00 PM 

London: CLOSED DOWN  1.87 POINTS OR 0.03%

German Dax : CLOSED UP 61.29 POINTS  OR 0.51%
Paris Cac CLOSED UP 14.92 POINTS OR 0.28%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 42.20 POINTS OR 0.46%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP:  116.83 POINTS OR 0.55%/

 

 

WTI Oil price; 69.84  1:00 pm;

Brent Oil: 78.99 1:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   ROUBLE CROSS:    67.36/ THE CROSS LOWER BY  0.73 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE HIGHER BY 73 BASIS PTS)

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA:  6.336 PER ONE USA DOLLAR.

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES +.48 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM:$69.54

BRENT: $78.99

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.05%

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.20%/

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS: 1.1667 DOWN .0002 ( DOWN 2 BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:112.33 UP 0.637 (YEN UP 17 BASIS POINTS/ .

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 94.64 UP 14 cent(s)/

The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.3144 DOWN 1 POINT FROM YESTERDAY

the Turkish lira close: 6.3848

the Russian rouble:  67.36 UP 0.73 roubles against the uSA dollar.(UP 73 BASIS POINTS)

 

Canadian dollar: 1.2982 UP 82 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) : 6.8614  (ONSHORE)

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH):  6.8604 (OFFSHORE)

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,0.48%

 

The Dow closed  UP  325.87 POINTS OR 1.41%

NASDAQ closed UP 151,81  points or 0.56% 4.00 PM EST


VOLATILITY INDEX:  13.02  CLOSED DOWN 0.66

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.338%  .LIBOR  RATES ARE RISING

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY

 

Stocks Bounce, Erase Trade Tantrum Losses, Amid Bond

Bloodbath

China didn’t shit the bed… so everything is awesome again (and Trump’s just negotiating so don’t sweat those other few hundred billion dollar tariffs)…

 

 

 

 

It looks like The National Team wanted to make sure that CHINEXT did not extend its losses beyond 2014 and saved SHCOMP after the lunch break…

 

US equity indices surged on the day…

 

But as Futures show best, while The Dow and S&P managed to erase yesterday’s losses, Nasdaq did not… and late-day weakness spoiled the party altogether…

NOTE – Algos lifted Nasdaq futs to perfectly top-tick the cash opening level from yesterday before reversing

 

Tesla tumbled on the day despite tech’s gains…

 

FANG Stocks gained on the day but were unable to erase yesterday’s losses…

 

And then there’s Tilray…$154 highs just two months after it IPO’d at $17…

Tilray soared 24% after the Canadian cannabis company received approval from the U.S. government to import medical cannabis into the country for a clinical trial. The gain added another $3 billion to Tilray’s market cap, pushing it to $14 billion to top peer Canopy Growth Corp. and making it the largest cannabis company.

 

Do investors really believe China’s $60 billion tariff response is all there is? Take a look at bond yields today!

Treasury yields surged today…

 

10Y Yields pushing to May highs above 3.00% (3.05% highs today, +7bps from lows) – we wonder whether this was China rattling their sabre a little at Trump’s tariff tantrum…

The last time Treasury yields spiked like this was July 20/21 following China’s huge weakening of the fix and “weaponization” of the yuan

 

The rise in yields has pushed 2Y to its cheapest relative to stocks since Dec 2007 – the market top…

 

The Yield Curve steepened notably – back to unchanged on the month…

 

 

The Dollar trod water after flip-flopping the last few days…

 

The offshore yuan strengthened from the post-tariffs low last night…

 

Another mixed day for EM FX overall drifting very modestly higher. The Ruble and Rand surged on the day as Lira, Rupee, and Argentine Peso tumbled…

Crptos managed gains on the day with Ripple ripping 15% higher after execs said the company could launch a commercial version of its payment platform xRapid “in the next month or so”…

 

Crude gained on the day but copper soared on chatter of China stimulus, PMs drifted modestly lower…

 

Gold futures managed to hold on to $1200…

 

Copper rejected 2.60 once again and soared…

 

Commodity land is getting interesting in other areas…

Lumber futures have tumbled to 18-mo lows, despite all the rhetoric about tariffs sending prices soaring…

 

But Soybean prices fell to a decade-low on Tuesday after data pointed to a quickly advancing US harvest and as the Trump administration escalated trade tensions with the China, the largest destination for American exports of the legume.

 

Finally, we note that the S&P 500 Price-to-Sales remains near record highs…

And as the stock market pushes higher, so professionals continue to bid for crash risk protection… (SKEW inverted)

 

end

market trading/this morning

Market data

USA economic/general stories
Trump is set to declassify the text messages and FISA court documents
(COURTESY THE HILL/FABIAN)

Trump to declassify controversial text messages, documents related to Russia probe

Trump to declassify controversial text messages, documents related to Russia probe
© Anna Moneymaker
President Trump has ordered the declassification of a series of highly sensitive documents related to the Russia investigation, the White House announced Monday.
Under the order, classified portions of a surveillance application for former Trump campaign adviser Carter Page and “all text messages relating to the Russia investigation” from former FBI Director James Comey and several other top federal officials could become public.
White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders said the decision was made “at the request of a number of committees of Congress, and for reasons of transparency.”
The move will please conservatives in Congress who have been clamoring for the documents’ release, saying it will back up their argument that the Russia investigation has been tainted by political bias.
But it is likely to ratchet up tensions with law enforcement officials and Democrats who believe such a move is an example of improper interference in an ongoing investigation.
end
Trump slaps tariffs on 200 billion of China imports and they will add another $267 billion dollars if China retaliates.  China did retaliate (above) so what will Trump’s next move be:
(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump Slaps Tariffs On $200BN In China Imports; Will Add Another $267BN If China Retaliates

With traders waiting with bated breath for hours, moments ago the White House announced that it has imposed tariffs on approximately $200 billion worth of imports from China, effective September 24.

The tariffs will start at 10% until the end of the year, but in an unexpected twist, are set to rise to 25% on January 1, 2019, in what is worse case scenario than what the market had been pricing in, namely a 10% rate indefinitely.

Trump also warns that if China takes any retaliatory action “against US farmers or other industries”, the US will immediately pursue “phase three”, and impose an additional $267 billion in tariffs on Chinese imports.

The statement notes that while the US has given China “every opportunity to treat us more fairly”, so far China “has been unwilling to change its practices.”

Trump concludes by saying that it is his duty “to protect the interests of working men and women, farmers, ranchers, businesses, and our country itself. My Administration will not remain idle when those interests are under attack. China has had many opportunities to fully address our concerns. Once again, I urge China’s leaders to take swift action to end their country’s unfair trade practices.”

Separately, the USTR announced that it has removed about 300 product categories from the tariff list and has cut some subsets of products, but the total value remains “approximately $200 billion”, and – as we showed earlier – a substantial portion of the imports targeted this time are consumer goods, which means that the pain to the US household bottom line is about to get real.

Meanwhile, these are the states that will be most impacted by the new tariffs (chart via Bloomberg):

Full statement below:

And text:

Today, following seven weeks of public notice, hearings, and extensive opportunities for comment, I directed the United States Trade Representative (USTR) to proceed with placing additional tariffs on roughly $200 billion of imports from China. The tariffs will take effect on September 24, 2018 and be set at a level of 10 percent until the end of the year. On January 1 the tariffs will rise to 25 percent. Further, if China takes retaliatory action against our fanners or other industries, we will immediately pursue phase three, which is tariffs on approximately $267 billion of additional imports.

We are taking this action today as a result of the Section 301 process that the USTR has been leading for more than 12 months. After a thorough study, the USTR concluded that China is engaged in numerous unfair policies and practices relating to United States technology and intellectual property — such as forcing United States companies to transfer technology to Chinese counterparts. These practices plainly constitute a grave threat to the long-term health and prosperity of the United States economy.

For months, we have urged China to change these unfair practices, and give fair and reciprocal treatment to American companies. We have been very clear about the type of changes that need to be made, and we have given China every opportunity to treat us more fairly. But, so far, China has been unwilling to change its practices. To counter China’s unfair practices, on June 15, I announced that the United States would impose tariffs of 25 percent on $50 billion worth of Chinese imports. China, however, still refuses to change its practices — and indeed recently imposed new tariffs in an effort to hurt the United States economy.

As President, it is my duty to protect the interests of working men and women, farmers, ranchers, businesses, and our country itself. My Administration will not remain idle when those interests are under attack. China has had many opportunities to fully address our concerns. Once again, I urge China’s leaders to take swift action to end their country’s unfair trade practices. Hopefully, this trade situation will be resolved, in the end, by myself and President Xi of China, for whom I have great respect and affection.

In response to the news, US equity futures dropped…

… as did the Chinese yuan.

And now we wait China’s response which may well be greater than the $60BN in tariffs on US goods that it warned previously it would retaliate with automatically.

end

 

Both Kavanaugh and Ford will testify on Monday

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

Kavanaugh And Accuser Will Both Testify Publicly On Monday

Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh and the woman accusing him of sexual crimes will both testify next Monday over her accusation that he sexually assaulted her while they were teenagers in high school.

Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-UT), a member of the Judiciary Committee, confirmed that the public hearing will happen on Monday, September 24. It is unclear whether the vote to confirm Kavanaugh has been delayed, or if the vote will still occur and the testimony will happen anyway. We assume the former.

Kavanaugh’s accuser, Christine Blasey Ford, has a hazy recollection of the incident, admitting she doesn’t specifically remember the year it happened, where the incident occurred, whose house it was, how she got there, and whether Kavanaugh and a witness (who denies the account) were already upstairs when she went up, and how she got home that night.

The announcement of next Monday’s testimonies comes after several closed door meetings by Republican members of the panel, with Chairman Chuck Grassley (R-IA) saying: “As I said earlier, anyone who comes forward as Dr. Ford has done deserves to be heard. My staff has reached out to Dr. Ford to hear her account, and they held a follow-up call with Judge Kavanaugh this afternoon. Unfortunately, committee Democrats have refused to join us in this effort.  However, to provide ample transparency, we will hold a public hearing Monday to give these recent allegations a full airing.

As The Hill notes, Monday’s hearing is sure to be a total circus:

The public hearing will spark a media frenzy around Capitol Hill, where the allegations against have Kavanaugh drawn to the Anita Hill hearings, in which a former colleague of Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas testified about allegations of sexual harassment. Thomas was confirmed despite Hill’s testimony, which was carried live on television at the time.

The White House said on Monday that Kavanaugh is ready to testify as soon as Tuesday if the Senate asks him to. –The Hill

“Judge Kavanaugh looks forward to a hearing where he can clear his name of this false allegation. He stands ready to testify tomorrow if the Senate is ready to hear him,” said White House spokesman Raj Shah.

Earlier Monday President Trump said he is open to hearing Ford’s account, and that if there’s a delay, so be it.

“I want the American people to be happy because they’re getting somebody that is great. I want him to go in at the absolute highest level. And I think to do that you have to go through this. If it takes a little delay it’ll take a little delay … I’m sure it will work out very well,” said Trump.

CSPAN

✔@cspan

President Trump comments on Judge Brett Kavanaugh nomination to #SCOTUS.

Q: “Has he offered to withdraw?”

President Trump: “Next question. What a ridiculous question.”

One might want to patronize their local Costco for a joke-sized bag of popcorn. Next Monday is sure to be entertaining to say the least.

end

SWAMP STORIES

What is no doubt a completely fabricated story, Kavanaugh will never get a fair hearing:  the Federalist

(courtesy zerohedge/Federalist)

Kavanaugh Will Never Get A Fair Hearing: The Federalist

Thanks to an unprovable allegation of sexual assault, Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh will “never get a fair hearing,” According to The Federalist‘s David Harsanyi, who writes: “If you’re a man, a single uncorroborated account that dates back to 1982 is all your political critics need to accuse you of attempted rape,” adding “There is also no possible outcome in which Democrats will concede Kavanaugh’s innocence, or even concede that we can’t really know what transpired on that night 36 years ago.”

No matter how many hearings held, and no matter how many of Kavanaugh’s classmates and ex-girlfriends go on record to attest to his good character, and despite the fact that most sexual predators have a pattern of bad behavior – it does not matter. Kavanaugh is now forever tainted with nebulous allegations from a woman with a shaky story.

Kavanaugh’s accuser, Christine Blasey Ford, has a hazy recollection of the incident, admitting she doesn’t specifically remember the year it happened, where the incident occurred, whose house it was, how she got there, and whether Kavanaugh and a witness (who denies the account) were already upstairs when she went up, and how she got home that night.

And as The Federalist writes: “Whether Ford’s accusation is true or not, Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein orchestrated the leak and subsequent release of Ford’s letter, not merely to sink Kavanaugh and level accusations in a way that would make it difficult for the judge to defend himself, but also to try and delay Republican efforts to confirm any nominee until after the midterms.”

In short, a judge who by all accounts has been a model citizen – whose family was left in tears during vitriolic confirmation hearings, is nothing more than a disposable pawn to Democratic legislators.

Erica Werner

✔@ericawerner

McConnell speaking on Dr. Blasey’s accusation: “Through no fault of hers, Senate Democrats chose to play politics and keep it secret … they sat on this information for nearly 7 weeks … until they leaked it to the press.”

Erica Werner

✔@ericawerner

McConnell: “This alleged incident is completely at variance with his entire life history.”

Kavanaugh’s family during contentious confirmation hearingsAlso highly suspect and somehow glossed over by a politicized media, the timing of this allegation: 

There’s no other explanation for the timing of leaked letter. The senator claims the allegations are “extremely serious and bear heavily on Judge Kavanaugh’s character.” Yet, according to reports, Democrats were in possession of Ford’s letter for months and sat on itFeinstein personally met with Kavanaugh and didn’t bring up this “extremely serious” charge of sexual assault. Why not? She could have asked him about the allegations while keeping the accuser’s name confidential. Democrats submitted over a thousand questions to Kavanaugh on the record, and not one of them were about whether he had ever engaged in any “extremely serious” behavior. Feinstein also had Kavanaugh sitting in front of her, under oath, during public Senate hearings, and never asked him about his alleged behavior. –The Federalist

Meanwhile, if Democrats are successful in sinking Kavanaugh’s nomination – forcing him to withdraw, or successfully delaying his confirmation until after midterms – when Democrats are expected to wrestle Congressional control from GOP hands, it will damage the credibility of any Trump-nominated Supreme Court justice going forward.

Catch-22

As Harsanyi notes, the Republicans are now in a catch-22 situation; if they refuse to entertain the 11th hour accusations – they will be accused of ignoring sexual assault. If they do hold hearings – which are scheduled for Monday, they will be accused of attacking a survivor of sexual assault.

Republicans will never be able to ask Ford anything useful, because they’re mostly white men, and white men are, I’m told, perfunctorily racist and misogynist. If Republicans bring up the fact that Ford’s allegation wasn’t reported or relayed to anyone for more than 30 years — until Kavanaugh’s name emerged as a possible Supreme Court justice — they will be accused of attacking a woman. If they point out that her therapist’s notes, the ones that Ford claims prove her charge, in some ways contradict what she is now saying, they will be portrayed as a bunch of men attacking a sexual assault survivor. When they point out that polygraph tests are unreliable and inadmissible in courts,they will be accused of berating a victim. –The Federalist

In other words, this is a no-win situation for Republicans, orchestrated by the Democrat

end

The declassification order will expose the FBI’s insurance policy orchestrated by Strzok and Page and others trying to bring the Trump White HOuse down

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

Trump Declassification Order Will Expose FBI’s “Insurance Policy” From Strzok-Page Text: Nunes

President Trump’s order to declassify a broad swath of DOJ/FBI documents related to the Russia investigation will expose the infamous “insurance policy” referred to in an August 15, 2016 text between former FBI employees Peter Strzok and Lisa Page, according to House Intelligence Committee Chairman Devin Nunes (R-CA). 

I want to believe the path you threw out for consideration in Andy’s office – that there’s no way he gets elected – but I’m afraid we can’t take the risk. It’s like an insurance policy in the unlikely event you die before you’re 40,” reads the text message in question – used by many in Trump’s camp to bolster claims that the Russia investigation is “rigged witch hunt.”

Speaking with Fox News‘s Laura Ingraham, Nunes said that declassification will provide exculpatory evidence, including a dozen or so 302 witness interview forms from DOJ official Bruce Ohr which may shed light on his significant relationship with former MI6 spy Christopher Steele and “many other rotten apples.” 

“A lot of people think that the insurance policy was getting the FISA warrant on [former Trump campaign aide] Carter Page,” Nunes told Ingraham, adding “We actually believe it was more explicit than that.”

Watch:

Fox News

✔@FoxNews

Rep. @DevinNunes on @POTUS‘ order to declassify FISA documents: “This is going to be a great day for the American people.” @IngrahamAngle http://fxn.ws/2OALmgZ

White House Press Secretary Sarah Sanders said Trump had ordered the documents released by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) and the Justice Department “[a]t the request of a number of committees of Congress, and for reasons of transparency.” –Fox News

Adam Schiff (D-CA), ranking Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee, called Trump’s decision to release the documents “a clear abuse of power.”   (Harvey: he is scared out of his mind what these will reveal)

“[Trump] has decided to intervene in a pending law enforcement investigation by ordering the selective release of materials he believes are helpful to his defense team and thinks will advance a false narrative,” Schiff said. “With respect to some of these materials, I have been previously informed by the FBI and Justice Department that they would consider their release a red line that must not be crossed as they may compromise sources and methods.

“This is evidently of no consequence to a President who cares about nothing about the country and everything about his narrow self-interest,” Schiff added.

Adam Schiff

✔@RepAdamSchiff

President Trump has intervened again in a pending investigation by ordering the selective disclosure of classified materials he believes to be helpful to his defense. The DOJ and FBI have previously informed me that release of some of this information would cross a “red line.”

Trump also ordered the DOJ to release text messages from several key players in the Trump-Russia investigation, “without redaction,” of former FBI Director James Comey, his deputy Andrew McCabe, now-fired special agent Peter Strzok, former FBI attorney Lisa Page and twice-demoted DOJ official Bruce Ohr.

Jim Acosta

✔@Acosta

WH: Trump has “directed the Department of Justice (including the FBI) to publicly release all text messages relating to the Russia investigation, without redaction, of James Comey, Andrew McCabe, Peter Strzok, Lisa Page, and Bruce Ohr.”

A spokesman from the Justice Department told Fox News that the DOJ and FBI “are already working with the Director of National Intelligence to comply with the President’s order,” while ODNI spokesperson Kellie Wade told the network: “As requested by the White House, the ODNI is working expeditiously with our interagency partners to conduct a declassification review of the documents the President has identified for declassification.

end

FROM THE KING REPORT: (and a special thank you to Chris Powell of GATA for sending this to us)
@ShannonBream:  SenGrassley confirms he has invited Dr. Ford and Judge Kavanaugh to testify at a public hearing Monday 10am.  “Unfortunately, committee Democrats have refused to join us in this effort.
 
If Democrats don’t appear at the hearing next Monday, the accuser is unlikely to appear.
 
Robert Mueller Delays Flynn Sentencing, yet again, until after the Election – November 28th
 
Ex-US ambassador to the USSR (1987-1991), Jack Matlock, doesn’t think Putin has full control of Russia.  He believes that crime groups independently do as they please and might be responsible for assassinations and poisonings.   https://twitter.com/27khv/status/1038197678453207040/photo/1
 

 

END

WE WILL SEE YOU ON THURSDAY NIGHT.

I WILL NOT DO A COMMENTARY FOR WEDNESDAY.  HOWEVER I WILL TRY AND INCORPORATE TWO DAYS WORTH OF COMEX DATA ON THURSDAY

ALL THE BEST

 

 

HARVEY