GOLD: $1224.20 DOWN  $3.30 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSINGS)

Silver:   $14.44 DOWN 15 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Closing access prices:

Gold :  1223.75

 

silver: $14.43

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

For comex gold and silver:

NOV

 

 

 

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  NOV CONTRACT:1 NOTICE(S) FOR 100

Total number of notices filed so far for NOV:  193  for 19300 OZ  (0.6003 TONNES)

 

 

 

 

 

FOR NOVEMBER

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

275 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR

1,375,000 OZ/

Total number of notices filed so far this month: 1363 for 6,815,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE  $6538: down  $43

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $6508  down 71 

 

end

 

XXXX

 

China is controlling the gold market

WE WILL NOT PROVIDE LONDON FIXES AS THEY ARE NOT ACCURATE AS TO WHAT IS GOING ON AT THE SAME TIME FRAME.

Let us have a look at the data for today

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In silver, the total OPEN INTEREST  ROSE BY  936 CONTRACTS FROM 213566 UP TO  214,502  WITH YESTERDAY’S 8 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. TODAY WE  CLOSER TO  AUGUST’S RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY(WELL OVER 30 MILLION OZ AT THE COMEX FOR JULY , 6 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST AND NOW JUST LESS THAN 31 MILLION OZ STANDING IN SEPTEMBER. AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:

EFP’S FOR NOV.  3309 EFP’S FOR DECEMBER AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE: OF 3309 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 3309 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 1749 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 16.545 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 8 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR THE JUNE/2018 COMEX DELIVERY MONTH. (5.420 MILLION OZ);  30.370 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR DELIVERY IN JULY, FOR AUGUST: 6.065 MILLION OZ AND  39.505 MILLION  OZ STANDING  IN SEPT.  2,520,000 OZ STANDING IN OCTOBER. AND NOW SO FAR A HUGE 6,830,000 OZ STANDING FOR NOVEMBER

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF NOV: 

14,647 CONTRACTS (FOR 6 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 14647 CONTRACTS) OR 73.24 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 2441 CONTRACTS OR 12.205 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF NOV:  73.24 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 10.46% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2018 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:           2,502.96    MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR JAN 2018:                                              236.879     MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR FEB 2018:                                               244.95       MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MARCH 2018:                                        236.67       MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR APRIL 2018:                                           385.75        MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MAY 2018:                                             210.05        MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR JUNE 2018:                                           345.43         MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR JULY 2018:                                            172.84          MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR AUGUST 2018:                                      205.23          MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR SEPTEMBER 2018:                                 167,05          MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR OCTOBER 2018:                                     224.875        MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1177 WITH THE 8 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX //YESTERDAY. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 3309 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

TODAY WE GAINED A HUMONGOUS SIZED: 4245 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

i.e 3309 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 936  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THUS GOOD  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 8 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER  AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $14.59 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE HAD A GIGANTIC AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY IN THE BIG JULY DELIVERY MONTH OF SLIGHTLY OVER 30 MILLION OZ, IN AUGUST ANOTHER BIG 6.065 MILLION OZ IN A NON ACTIVE MONTH  IN SEPTEMBER A FINAL MONSTROUS 39.505 MILLION OZ OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY, WITH HUGE DELIVERIES OF OVER 2 MILLION OZ IN OCTOBER (A NON DELIVERY MONTH) AND NOW  6.830 MILLION OZ IN NOVEMBER….... NOBODY IS PAYING ATTENTION TO THE HUGE NUMBER OF PHYSICAL OUNCES STANDING FOR SILVER THESE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS.

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.072 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 153% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT AUGUST MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 275 NOTICE(S) FOR 1,375,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  AN INITIAL HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz AND NOW NOV AT 6.830 MILLION OZ.
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT).

IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A GOOD  SIZED 1450 CONTRACTS UP TO 496,361 DESPITE THE GAIN IN THE COMEX GOLD PRICE/YESTERDAY’S TRADING (A GAIN IN PRICE OF $2.60).THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A  STRONG SIZED 5364 CONTRACTS: ALWAYS, ON THE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE IN ANY ACTIVE MONTH WHETHER GOLD OR SILVER THE OI COLLAPSES.  IT IS HERE THAT THE MIGRANTS RECEIVE THEIR FIAT BONUS FOR ENGAGING IN THIS EXERCISE. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING EFP ISSUANCE FOR TODAY:

 

NOVEMBER HAD EFP’S ISSUED AND, DECEMBER HAD AN ISSUANCE OF 5364 CONTACTS  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 496.361. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED RISE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 6814 CONTRACTS:  1450 OI CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 5364 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN: 6814 CONTRACTS OR 681,400 OZ = 21.19 TONNES. AND ALL OF THIS STRONG DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A SMALL RISE IN THE PRICE OF GOLD/ YESTERDAY TO THE TUNE OF $2.60???.

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY, WE HAD 9874 EFP’S ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF NOV : 42,879 CONTRACTS OR 4,287,900 OZ OR 133.37 TONNES (6 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 7146 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 6 TRADING DAY IN  TONNES: 133.37 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2017, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 133.37/2550 x 100% TONNES =  5.23% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN JULY ALONE.***

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2018 TO DATE:     6,343.23  TONNES   *SURPASSED ANNUAL PROD’N

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR JANUARY 2018:           653.22  TONNES (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR FEBRUARY 2018:         649.45 TONNES  (20 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MARCH 2018:             741.89 TONNES  (22 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR APRIL 2018:                 713.84 TONNES  (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MAY 2018:                   693.80 TONNES ( 22 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR JUNE 2018                      650.71 TONNES  (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR JULY 2018                       605.5 TONNES     (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR AUG. 2018                      488.54  TONNES  (23 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR SEPT 2018                       470.64 TONNES   (19 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR OCT. 2018                        543.92 TONNES  (23 TRADING DAYS)

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

Result: A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 1450 WITH THE GAIN IN PRICING ($2.60) THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY) //.WE ALSO HAD A GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 5364 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 5364 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD A STRONG RISE OF 6814 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

5364 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 1465 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (in tonnes, the GAIN in total oi equates to 21.19 TONNES). ..AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A GAIN OF $2.60 IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX????.

 

 

we had: 1 notice(s) filed upon for 100 oz of gold at the comex.

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

WITH GOLD DOWN $3.30 TODAY: / 

 

A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD

 

A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/GLD INVENTORY   755.23 TONNES

Inventory rests tonight: 755.23 tonnes.

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

WITH SILVER DOWN 15  CENTS TODAY

 

A SMALL CHANGES  AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 281,000

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.724 MILLION OZ.

 

NOTE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GLD AND SLV: THE CROOKS CAN RAID GOLD BECAUSE THEY DO HAVE SOME PHYSICAL.  THEY DO NOT RAID SILVER PROBABLY BECAUSE THERE IS NO REAL SILVER INVENTORIES BEHIND THEM

 

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY 956 CONTRACTS from 213,566 UP TO 214,502  AND MOVING A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..

 

.

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

i) 0 EFP’s for November… and

 

3309 CONTRACTS FOR DECEMBER AND  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 3309 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 936 CONTRACTS TO THE 3309 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A STRONG  NET GAIN OF 4245 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS.  THUS IN OUNCES, THE  GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 21.23 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 6.065 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER., AND NOW 6.83 MILLION OZ STANDING IN NOVEMBER.

 

 

RESULT: A GOOD INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 8 CENT PRICING GAIN THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY.BUT WE ALSO HAD ANOTHER STRONG SIZED 3309 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 5.71 POINTS OR 0.22% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 80.03 POINTS OR 0.31% //The Nikkei closed UP 401.12 OR 1.82%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.57%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.9320 AS POBC RESUMES  ITS HUGE DEVALUATION  /DELEGATION COMING TO THE USA TO SEE TRUMP IN NOVEMBER /Oil UP to 61.91 dollars per barrel for WTI and 72.17 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//.  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED WELL DOWN AT 6.9320 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED WELL DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9266: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS RESUMES// TRADE TALKS NOW ON   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING SLIGHTLY WEAKER  AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

i

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3A/NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

i)North Korea/South Korea/USA/

 

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

Japanese machine order collapse by a huge 18.3% month over month and this is an early gauge of future capital spending.  This comes on the heel of poor domestic and household spending last night.  This should cause the GDP level to finally fall in the negative category.

( zerohedge)

3 C/  CHINA

Trouble ahead in China as we are now witnessing the first bank run in the city of Zigong on the Bank of Zigong.  It seems that shareholders of a shell company absconded with over 5.7 billion dollars and one person has been arrested.  This caused a major bank run as depositors rushed to remove their money from the bank. Also another key shareholder of the bank is also in trouble loaded up to its gills in debt.  This could be the big signal for future bank runs and also the removal of yuan from citizens bank accounts as these funds seek shelter in foreign lands

a must read…

( zerohedge)

 

 

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)italy

Italian yields rise 6 basis points to 3.40% and within spitting distance of the spread btw. German bunds and Italian bunds at 2.94%.  At 3.00% differential banks in Italy begin to fail.  The problem is their budget and so growth. Brussels rejects their budget because it would widen to 2.9% next year and then over 3% which is a no no.

a must read…

( zerohedge)

ii)Jeffrey Snider delves into the manufacturing giants for Europe, Germany and Italy which both together represent 44% of output.  Germany is slowing down, while Italy’s growth lowered to zero percent.  All of Europe has a negative PMI.  This is a global warning and no doubt Europe’s economic demise.  The tightening effects started in 2008 is now beginning to show its ugly head in Europe.
(Jeffrey Snider/Alhambra Partners

iii)UK

Our resident expert on the Brexit is Mish Shedlock.  He lists 4 possible outcomes and it is probably better than there is no deal but many mini deals.

a must read…

( Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

This is a huge shift:  UAE after 6 years is contemplating reopening its embassy in Damascus and this flies in the face of the USA.  If this happens UAE can supply vital financing needs to Syria which in turn weakens the influence of the USA in the region

( zerohedge)

 

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

 

 

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)

 

 

MARKET TRADING

 

 

ii)Market data/FOMC RESULTS

The Fed signals that its rate hike trajectory is unphased by market volatility and they will gradually raise rates much to the anger of Trump

( zerohedge)

 

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

a)Brandon Smith is one smart cookie.  He outlines how the economy will collapse and how the deep state will blame the conservative Republicans for the failure.  He outlines 5 major problems in the USA economy.

a must read…

( Brandon Smith.Alt-Market.com)

b)Katherine Lackey of USA today describes that Yellowstone’s super volcano is not the biggest threat there but the risk of a huge earthquake

( Katherine Lackey/USAToday)

c)the following is important but a little difficult to understand.  The important point is the rolling off of the Fed balance sheet is creating a shortage of dollars…something that we have indicated to you in the past few weeks. The scarcity of dollars is creating havoc for our emerging nations who are in great need of funds.  Also the banking excess reserves are needed because of new regulatory rules.  This should cause short term interest rates to rise faster than originally thought especially when the USA needs 1.9 trillion because of its deficit
a must read…
( zerohedge)

d)this is going to get quite ugly as we now know the mystery man in the meeting that started at 1MDB Malaysian scandal.  The mystery man in the meeting was none other that former CEO of Goldman and now its current chairman.  Already we have one conviction, Tim Lessner.  This no doubt will spread to the entire company…it may bring them down.

( zerohedge)

e)As expected Trump proposes to end asylum for illegal immigrants ahead of the caravans arriving

( zerohedge)

iv)SWAMP STORIES

a)It begins:  Maxine Waters vows to examine Trump ties to Deutsche bank

(courtesy zerohedge)

b)The White House finally pulls CNN’s Jim Acosta’s Media credentials.

( zerohedge)

c)Trump declares war on the Democrats if they pursue investigations

(courtesy zerohedge)

d)It begins:  Nadler vows immediate legislation in response to the shooting spree last night in which 13 people died in the Bar-Grill in Sherman Oaks California( zerohedge)

e)Mueller has now begun to write his “final report’ on the Trump-Russia collusion case amid the Dept of Justice shakeup. The democrats are going nuts on this

( zerohedge)

f)It certainly did not take long:  Democrats demand the preservation of all materials related to Mueller and Jeff Sessions just like Hillary’s removal of 33,000 emails.
(courtesy zerohedge)

 

E)SWAMP STORIES/THE KING REPORT

Let us head over to the comex:

 

The total gold comex open interest ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 1450 CONTRACTS UP to an OI level 496,361 WITH THE RISE IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($2.60 IN YESTERDAY’S COMEX TRADING). FOR TWO YEARS STRAIGHT WE HAVE NOTICED THAT ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AND EFP’S NOTICES EXPONENTIALLY INCREASE AS WELL AS WE WITNESS THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST COLLAPSE. ONCE WE GET TO FIRST DAY NOTICE, THEN THE OPEN INTEREST RISES AND AGAIN THEY DID NOT DISAPPOINT US.

 

 

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED COMEX TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 5364 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

NOV: 0 EFP’S AND DECEMBER:  5364 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  5364 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:  6814 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 5364 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A GOOD 1450 COMEX CONTRACTS.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 6,814 contracts OR 681,400 OZ OR 21.19 TONNES.

 

We are now in the non active contract month of November. For the November contract month, we have 6 notices standing so we lost 2 contracts. We had 2 notices served upon yesterday

 

we lost 0 contracts or an additional NIL oz of gold will stand for gold at the comex and these guys refused to  morphed into London based forwards as well as negate receiving a fiat bonus for the trouble.

 

 

 

 

 

The next delivery month after November is the very big December contract month and here the OI FELL by 5521 contracts  to 339,872 contracts.  January saw a  RISE TO 2674 FOR A GAIN OF 738 CONTRACTS.  February gained 5701 contracts to stand at 100,906 contracts.

 

 

 

 

WE HAD 1 NOTICES FILED AT THE COMEX FOR 100 OZ.

 

 

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total silver OI ROSE BY 936 CONTRACTS FROM 213,566 UP TO 214,502 (AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  (THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S GOOD  OI COMEX GAIN  OCCURRED WITH A 8 CENT GAIN IN PRICING.

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOVEMBER AND, WE WERE  INFORMED THAT WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED 3309 EFP CONTRACTS:  FOR NOVEMBER:  0 CONTRACTS AND FOR …

 

FOR DECEMBER: 3309 CONTRACTS AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS.  THESE EFPS WERE ISSUED TO COMEX LONGS WHO RECEIVED A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  THE TOTAL EFP’S ISSUED: 3309.  ON A NET BASIS WE GAINED 4245 SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AS WE OBTAINED A  936 CONTRACT GAIN AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 3309 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:   4245 CONTRACTS...AND ALL OF THIS GOOD DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A 8 CENT GAIN IN PRICING// YESTERDAY??

 

 

 

 

We are now in the non active delivery month of NOVEMBER and here we now have 278 notices  standing for a gain of 1 contacts.  We had 3 notices served upon yesterday so we gained another 4 contracts or an additional 20,000 oz will  stand for delivery as these longs refused to  morph into London based forwards as well as not accepting a fiat bonus for their efforts. QUEUE JUMPING DID RETURN TO THE COMEX ARENA AS THIS PHENOMENON  (IN SILVER) HAS BEEN THE NAME OF THE GAME FOR OVER 19 MONTHS.

 

 

 

After November, we have a December contract and here we lost 3007 contracts down to 146.063.  January saw a loss of 1 contracts DOWN to 990 contracts.   March, the next big delivery month after December saw a gain of 2885 contracts  up to 54,535.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We had 275 notice(s) filed for 1375,000 OZ for the NOV, 2018 COMEX contract for silver

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX

 

PRELIMINARY COMEX VOLUME FOR TODAY: 246.374 contracts,

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  290,993  contracts..

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  NOV/GOLD

NOV 8-/2018.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
 nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

 

 

nil

 

oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
1 notice(s)
 100 OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
5 contracts
(500 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
193 notices
19300 OZ
0.6003 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entry:

 

total gold entering dealer:  0 oz

total gold withdrawing from the dealer;  0 oz

 

we had 0 kilobar transaction/
we had 0 withdrawal out of the customer account:
total customer withdrawals:  nil oz
we had 0 customer deposit
total customer deposits nil oz
we had 0  adjustment..
i

FOR THE NOV 2018 CONTRACT MONTH)

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 1 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the NOV/2018. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (193) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV. (6 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (1 x 100 oz per contract) equals 19,700 OZ OR 0.6127 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this non active month of NOV

 

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the NOV/2018 contract month:

No of notices served (193 x 100 oz)  + {6)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (1x 100 oz )which equals 19700 oz standing OR 0.6127 TONNES in this NON active delivery month of NOVEMBER.

WE LOST 1 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 100 WILL NOT  STAND AT THE COMEX AS THESE LONGS MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AS WELL AS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS. QUEUE JUMPING IN GOLD TOOK A LITTLE HIATUS BUT WILL RETURN AS THE DEALERS TRY AND PUT OUT FIRES ELSEWHERE.

 

 

 

 

 

THERE ARE ONLY 4.2969 TONNES OF REGISTERED COMEX GOLD AVAILABLE FOR DELIVERY AGAINST 0.6127 TONNES STANDING FOR NOVEMBER  

 

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  138,146.468 oz or   4.2969 tonnes
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,013,936.429 oz 259.26 tonnes
 I BELIEVE THAT THIS IS THE LOWEST REGISTERED GOLD READING IN THE COMEX HISTORY..AS WELL AS THE LONGEST WE HAVE SEEN THE REGISTERED COLUMN AT 5 TONNES OR LESS.

IN THE LAST 27 MONTHS 107 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN: THERE IS NO GOLD AT THE COMEX..AS THE CROOKS SEEMS TO BE FORCING LONGS TO TAKE DELIVERY OF LONDON FORWARDS AND NOT TAKE POSSESSION OF ANY GOLD AT THE COMEX/

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE NOV DELIVERY MONTH

NOV INITIAL standings/SILVER

NOV 82018
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 191,723.588 oz
CNT
Malca

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
1,361,289.600
oz
CNT
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
1,871,253.588
oz
Scotia
CNT
No of oz served today (contracts)
275
CONTRACT(S)
1,375,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
3 contracts
(15,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 1363 contracts

(6815,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

lots of activity in the silver vaults today.

 

we had 1 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

i) Into CNT:  1,361,289.600 oz

 

 

total dealer deposits: 1,361,2899.600 oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

we had 2 deposits into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan: nil oz

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 151.4 million oz of  total silver inventory or 51.94% of all official comex silver. (151.4 million/291.4 million)

ii)Into  Scotia:  819,813.140 oz

iii) Into CNT: 1051,440.670 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  1,871,253.810 oz

we had 1 withdrawals from the customer account;

 

i) Out of CNT:  191,723.588 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals: 191,723.588  oz

 

we had 0 adjustments

 

 

 

 

 

 

total dealer silver:  87.335 million

total dealer + customer silver:  294.499  million oz

The total number of notices filed today for the NOV 2018. contract month is represented by 275 contract(s) FOR 1,375,000 oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in NOV., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1363 x 5,000 oz = 6,815,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV. (278) and the number of notices served upon today (275 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the NOV/2018 contract month: 1363(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of NOV( 278) -number of notices served upon today (275)x 5000 oz equals 6,830,000 oz of silver standing for the NOV contract month.  This is a gigantic number of oz standing for an off delivery month. Somebody is after a large supply of physical silver. We GAINED 4 contracts or an additional 20,000 will  stand at the comex as these longs accepted a London based forwards as well as receiving the right for a fiat bonus. QUEUE JUMPING IN SILVER RETURNED IN EARNEST TODAY

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

ESTIMATED VOLUME FOR TODAY: 97,806 CONTRACTS  … 

 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 101,303 CONTRACTS….

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 101,303 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 506 million OZ  OR 72.35% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -5.37% (NOV 6/2018)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -2.00% to NAV (NOV 6/2018 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -5.37%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 12.46/TRADING 11.86/DISCOUNT 4.83

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

NOV 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.30: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 755.23 TONNES

NOV 7/WITH GOLD UP $2.60″ NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 756.70 TONNES

NOV 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.80 A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF .58 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 756.70 TONES

NOV 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.05 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.77 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.29 TONNES

NOV 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.05: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.76 TONNES FROM THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.06 TONNES

NOV 1/: 2 TRANSACTIONS:WITH GOLD UP $23.85,A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF .80 TONNES OF GOLD TO PAY FOR FEES, INSURANCE AND STORAGE: INVENTORY AT THE GLD RESTS AT 754.06 TONNES THEN A DEPOSIT OF 6.76 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 760.82

OCT 31: WITH GOLD DOWN $11.35: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RE3STS AT 754.94 TONNES

OCT 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 5.30 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 754.94 TONNES

OCTOBER 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.75 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 749.64 TONNES

OCTOBER 26/WITH GOLD UP $3.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 749.64 TONNES

OCT 25/WITH GOLD UP $1.15: A DEPOSIT OF 1.76 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 749.64 TONNES. FROM ITS LOW POINT AT THE BEGINNING OF OCTOBER THE GLD HAS ADDED.19.47 TONNES OF GOLD

OCT 23/WITH GOLD UP $11.85 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 747.88 TONNES

Oct 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.90 TODAY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.97 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 745.82

AND THEN: A DEPOSIT OF 2.06 TONNES SUCH THAT THE FINAL RESTING INVENTORY IS 747.88 TONNES

OCT 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.70 : NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 748.76 TONNES

OCT 18/WITH GOLD UP $2.80/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RSTS AT 748.76 TONNES

OCT 16/WITH GOLD UP BY ONLY $1.00/WE HAD ANOTHER 4.12 TONNES OF GOLD ADDED TO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 748.76 TONNES

OCT 15/WITH GOLD UP $8.45/ANOTHER 5.65 TONNES OF GOLD WAS ADDED TO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 744.64 TONNES

OCT 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.35/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 738.99 TONNES

OCT 11/WITH GOLD UP $35.20 TODAY: A HUGE PAPER GOLD INVENTORY GAIN OF 8.82 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 738.99 TONNES

OCT 10/WITH GOLD UP $2.65 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 730.17 TONNES

OCT 9/WITH GOLD UP $2.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 730.17

OCT 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $18.60 NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 730.17TONNES

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

NOV 8.2018/ Inventory rests tonight at 755.23 tonnes

*IN LAST 493 TRADING DAYS: 179.92 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 393 TRADING DAYS: A NET 19.62 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN REMOVED FROM GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

NOV 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 281,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.724 MILLION OZ.

NOV 7: WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.005 MILLION OZ/

NOV 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.005 MILLION OZ/

NOV 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.315 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.005 MILLION OZ/

NOV 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 143,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 327.320 MILLION OZ/

NOV 1/WITH SILVER UP 54 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SLV” A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.033 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV. /INVENTORY RESTS AT 327.463 MILLION OZ.

OCT 31/WITH SILVER DOWN  18 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 328.496 MILLION OZ/

OCT 30/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 328.496 MILLION OZ

OCTOBER 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS NO  A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.879 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 328.496 MILLION OZ.

OCTOBER 26/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 330.375 MILLION OZ

OCT 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS: ANOTHER HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.315 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 330.375 MILLION OZ/

OCT 23/WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS/A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.819 MILLION OZ /INVENTORY RESTS AT 331.690 MILLION OZ.

OCT 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS: A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 470,000/INVENTORY RESTS AT 334.509 MILLION OZ/

OCT 19/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INV. RESTS AT 334.039 MILLION OZ

OCT 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.127  MILLION /RESTS AT 334.039 MILLION OZ/

OCT 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ/

OCT 15/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ/

OCT 12/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ/

OCT 11/WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ/

OCT 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ/

OCT 9/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ

OCT 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 33 CENTS, A GOOD SIZE WITHDRAWAL OF 563,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ.

 

 

NOV 8/2018:

 

Inventory 325.724 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

HUGE JUMP IN LIBOR RATES TODAY./

 

 

THE RISE IN LIBOR IS CREATING A SCARCITY OF DOLLARS BECAUSE FOREIGN EXCHANGE SWAPS (COSTS) ARE SIMPLY PROHIBITIVE

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.43/ and libor 6 month duration 2.84

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .51

 

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.67%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 3.13

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.46

end

 

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

end
i) GOLDCORE BLOG

Gold ETFs See S

 

 

ii) GATA stories
We are continually seeing nations by passing the uSA dollar using their own currencies.  Today we see South Korea and Iran agreeing to switch national currencies in a trade exchange.  This is occurring despite USA sanctions
(courtesy RT.GATA)

Dumping the dollar, Iran and South Korea agree to cross-currency trade

 Section: 

From Russia Today, Moscow
Wednesday, November 7, 2018

South Korea and Iran have agreed to switch to national currencies in trade exchanges as the sides aim to strengthen relations despite the U.S. sanctions on Tehran.

The agreement is of great importance to both countries, Yonhap News Agency reported, explaining that the deal indicated Korea’s concerns about relations with Iran.

… 

The countries also agreed to make payments and settle their financial and banking accounts using the South Korean national currency, the won. That will allow South Korean and Iranian companies to continue their extensive exchanges in various fields.

The volume of bilateral trade surpassed the $12-billion benchmark last year, according to Iran’s ambassador to Seoul Saeid Badamchi Shabestari, who told Press TV that the Iranian and Korean economies complement one another. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.rt.com/business/443354-iran-south-korea-currencies-dollar/


* * *

end


iii) Other Physical stories

Bank of England Refusing Venezuelan Request to Bank of England Disallowing Venezuelan Request to Return $550 Mln in Gold – Report

Earlier, Caracas indicated that it was looking to repatriate some 14 tons of gold bars back from the UK out of concern that the bullion may be affected by harsh US sanctions against the Latin American country.

The Bank of England is refusing to release Venezuela’s gold bars, worth about $550 million or £420 million, back to Caracas, with British officials understood to have referred to “standard” anti-money laundering measures, The Times reports, citing unnamed sources.

“There are concerns that Mr. [Nicolas] Maduro may seize the gold, which is owned by the state, and sell it for personal gain,” the newspaper explains.

On Tuesday, two informed sources told Reuters that the Venezuelan government has been trying to move its gold from Bank of England vaults back to Venezuela for nearly two months, with the shipment thought to be held up over difficulties in obtaining insurance.

Gold Rush Home: Venezuela Wants $550 Mln Bullion Reserves Back From UK – Reports

Washington imposed new restrictions against Venezuela last week targetingthe country’s gold exports, accusing the Maduro government of “looting” Venezuela’s stocks of the precious metals amid the country’s economic crisis. The sanctions, which target US individuals and companies trading in Venezuelan gold, was announced by US National Security Advisor John Bolton last week, with Bolton also branding Caracas a member of a “troika of tyranny” along with Cuba and Nicaragua.

Venezuela has made a concerted effort to become a major gold exporter, and is engaged in certifying some 32 gold fields, and building 54 processing plants in a bid to become what Maduro said would be “the second largest gold reserve on Earth.”

The Venezuelan government has made an effort to reduce dependence on US-led or controlled financial institutions and instruments, including the dollar, and committed last month to trading in euros, yuan and “other convertible currencies” amid US restrictions.

In recent years, Venezuela has faced an acute economic crisis accompanied by hyperinflation, the devaluation of its currency, the bolivar, and goods shortages in shops, with the crisis caused by crippling US restrictions as well as mismanagement on the part of state oil company PDSVA. Winning a second term in office in May 2018, Maduro promised to make economic recovery one of the government’s top priorities. Amid the difficult situation facing his country, Maduro has repeatedly accused the US and Colombia of plotting to overthrow the Venezuelan government in an invasion or coup.

https://sputniknews.com/world/201811071069596712-uk- refuses-return-o

end

Ted Butler on the conviction of trader Edmonds for manipulation of gold/silver

A Crack in the Dike?

Theodore Butler | November 8, 2018 – 9:31am

Tuesday’s announcement by the Department of Justice of a guilty plea by a former trader of JPMorgan for systemic “spoofing” and price manipulation of gold, silver, platinum and palladium traded on the COMEX and NYMEX futures exchanges (owned by the CME Group) sure seemed like a very big deal to me for a number of reasons. The infractions occurred from 2009 to 2015 and the trader admitted to engaging in a conspiracy to commit market manipulation on hundreds of occasions, with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Please take the time to read this, as it is remarkably plainspoken.

https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/former-precious-metals- trader-pleads-guilty-commodities-fraud-and-spoofing- conspiracy

First, let me get some personal feelings out of the way. I’ve received a number of comments to the effect of how this vindicates my long held belief that JPMorgan is the silver (and gold) crook of crooks. The truth is that I don’t consider it vindication (yet), but I will confess to a feeling of relief upon reading the complaint, as I believe it greatly reduces the chances of JPMorgan suing me for openly calling them the crooks that they are. To be sure, my fear of being sued was never really a personal fear, but how it might affect my wife and family. Correctly or incorrectly, I feel a great burden has been lifted.

That aside, the announcement by the DOJ was remarkable in many ways, not the least of which is that this is a criminal case which involves jail time and not a civil case which only involves monetary fines. Also, the announcement makes clear that this is very much an ongoing investigation and it’s hard to see how there won’t be further fall out for JPMorgan, since it’s obvious the guilty trader was doing what others were doing at the bank. It’s also hard for me to see how a trader involved in systemic criminal market activity in coordination with other traders at the bank doesn’t equate to systemic criminal activity by the bank itself. Notable, of course, is that of all the blizzard of spoofing and short term price manipulation cases brought recently in silver and gold, this is the first to zero in on traders at JPMorgan.

I am struck by the DOJ’s announcement not mentioning the CFTC, although I may be reading too much into that. Interestingly, the guilty plea covers the time the CFTC had a supposed formal investigation in place into a silver market manipulation as a result of the concentrated short position of JPMorgan revealed in the August 2008 Bank Participation Report; a five year investigation that went nowhere. There’s no question in my mind that the CFTC handles JPMorgan with kid gloves as a result of some type of free get out of jail card emanating from the Bear Stearns takeover of March 2008. The DOJ, much to its credit, doesn’t appear to be part of any such arrangement. That’s not to say that the CFTC won’t be involved as the DOJ pursues this case, just that it’s odd at this point that this is an exclusive DOJ production.

Spoofing is the blatantly manipulative practice of entering large orders and immediately cancelling those orders with the sole intent of artificially moving prices. As far as market crimes go, spoofing is obvious and lacking in any possible redeeming features, much like the mugging of old ladies. It’s a testament to the CFTC’s and CME Group’s complete regulatory ineptitude that spoofing has existed for as long as it has. With that in mind, let me point out what the DOJ’s guilty criminal plea doesn’t involve.

As much as the guilty plea points the finger at JPMorgan’s inherent corruption in its precious metals dealings, unfortunately, it only scratches the surface. Spoofing and other short term illegal trading tricks are only tools used to enable the real price manipulation that is occurring in full view. The real manipulation is the ongoing fraud of prices being set by paper positioning on the COMEX and elsewhere between the nitwit managed money traders and the corrupt commercials, led by JPMorgan. It is nothing short of infuriating that the regulators – and I include the Department of Justice here – can’t or won’t see that spoofing, as bad as it is, is only an enabling tool to a much larger crime.

Spoofing does artificially move prices in the very short term and should have been banned outright many years ago; but to stop at spoofing is to miss the real crime. Spoofing isn’t responsible for the long term suppression of prices that has absolutely devastated precious metal investors and mining companies. But spoofing has been an integral tool in inducing the managed money technical fund traders to buy and sell because it gives the commercials the ability to rig prices up or down through the moving averages that dictate the technical funds’ behavior. That’s evident in the observation that the vast majority of spoofing cases involve traders for the banks. As dumb as I believe the technical funds may be, they’re not dumb enough to spoof and set off phony moving average penetrations to induce themselves into buying or selling.

The ability to spoof prices through moving averages and get the technical funds to buy and sell on command is a key ingredient by which JPMorgan has never suffered a loss in trading COMEX silver and gold. I think I know why the CFTC won’t touch this, but I believe that the only reason for the Justice Department not seeing it is because they don’t know enough to look at it. Similarly, I don’t believe that the DOJ knows that JPMorgan has accumulated massive amounts of physical silver and gold. (I will try to inform them again).

The real manipulation involves the crooks at JPMorgan acquiring 800 million ounces of physical silver and 20 million ounces of physical gold at prices made artificially low by JPMorgan maneuvering the managed money traders into and out from positions on the COMEX. Yes, JPMorgan used spoofing as indicated in the plea deal to accomplish the maneuvering, but to leave it at spoofing is a gross miscarriage of justice. It’s like the police pulling over a serial killer and letting him go after citing him for a few traffic violations.

All it would take for the DOJ to see the real market manipulation is to step back a bit and consider things in a slightly different perspective. Yes, by all means continue to go after the spoofers, but try to consider that spoofing is only a tool that enables a much deeper price manipulation run by JPMorgan. As much as I am trying to not to get my hopes up that the DOJ might stumble upon the real crime in silver and gold, I do confess to sensing a slight crack in the dike. Coupled with other things, like JPMorgan having now accumulated more physical silver and gold than I could ever have imagined a few short years ago and the incredible physical movement in and out of the COMEX-approved silver warehouses, it’s hard for me to see how there won’t be a resolution of the ongoing price manipulation in the immediate future.

Ted Butler
November 8, 2018
www.butlerresearch.com

________________________________________________________________________

 

 

 

Your early THURSDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED DOWN TO 6.9320/HUGE DEVALUATION FOR THE PAST FOUR WEEKS RESUMES/CHINESE COMING TO USA FOR TRADE TALKS IN NOVEMBER NOW ON //OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.9266   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 5.71 POINTS OR 0,22%

. HANG SANG CLOSED UP 80.03 POINTS OR 0.31%

 

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 401.12 POINTS OR 0.31%

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL MIXED

 

 

 

/USA dollar index RISES TO 96.22/Euro FALLS TO 1.1419

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. +.12/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 113.21/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 61.91 and Brent: 72.17

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen DOWN/ CHINESE YUAN:   ON SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE:  DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO +.46%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 3.39% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 1.60%

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 4.31

3k Gold at $1224.75 silver at:14.53   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 18/100 in roubles/dollar) 66.42

3m oil into the 61 dollar handle for WTI and 72 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 113.65DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 1.0025 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1448 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to +0.46%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 3.22% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 3.42%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.4233

Us Stock Futures Slide, Dollar Rises As Fed Looms

Yesterday’s torrid US market “melt-up”, which was the strongest post-midterm rally since 1982 after an election whose outcome was supposedly “priced in”, has faded with futures dipping 0.4% as traders shift their attention to today’s FOMC decision.

Even with the US taking a breather, world stocks enjoyed the eighth straight session of gains in their longest winning streak of the year on Thursday, as strong trade data from China kept the momentum from the previous day’s U.S. rally rolling.

European shares initially jumped to a one-month high, though they have since pared most of their earlier gains despite solid results from Siemens, SocGen and Commerzbank and Sodexho which eased concerns about slowing corporate earnings in Europe. Asia and Wall Street had set similar milestones overnight. Japan’s Topix jumped 1.7% and shares in Hong Kong and South Korea also posted solid gains.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng advanced 0.3 percent while the Shanghai Composite dipped 0.2 percent, unable to hold on to gains from stronger-than-expected October Chinese exports data. Australian stocks rose 0.5 percent too, South Korea’s KOSPI added 0.7% and Japan’s Nikkei surged 1.8 percent, which was almost as much as Wall Street’s 2 percent leap.

Earlier in the day, China reported that exports growth picked up modestly to 15.6% yoy in October, and imports growth also accelerated to 21.4% yoy in October. Both readings are above consensus. However, in sequential terms, exports slowed to 1.2% mom sa non-annualized, from a strong gain of 3.4% in September.

The dollar rebounded from two and a half week lows after three days of declines, while Italian bond yields jumped after the European Union warned the nation’s budget deficit will move dangerously close to the economic bloc’s limit of 3%.

Donald Trump’s loss of the House of Representatives in the midterms reduced the chance of another tax cut. That in turn had analysts and money managers breathing a sigh of relief that the U.S. economy wouldn’t ultimately overheat and force the Fed to keep jacking up borrowing costs.

“We think we are close to the end of the appreciation of the dollar,” said fund manager Amundi’s Didier Borowski, who expects the Fed to pause its hiking cycle next year as the economy starts to slow. “Usually we see a year-end rally (in stocks)” he added.

The bond market there was plenty of activity too, with the 10-year Treasury note yield rising to 3.24%, its highest since Oct. 9, before dipping a couple of basis points lower. Italian government bond yields were up to five basis points higher in early trade following key economic projections from the European Commission which warned the country’s 2019 deficit will be much higher than suggested by Rome.

It pushed Italy’s bond spread over higher-rated Germany out to 290 basis points and Mizuho rates strategist Peter Chatwell warned of a possible further sell-off if Rome’s populist coalition government thumbs its nose at Brussels again. “In our model, it doesn’t move fair value much from 300 bps (over Germany) but scary headlines are likely to cause a widening,” he added.

While the resignation of Attorney General Jeff Sessions prompted much media attention on Wednesday, it had no impact on markets, where the attention now shifts to Thursday’s Federal Reserve decision. Investors will be looking for any signals on the pace of policy tightening into 2019.

In currencies, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index whipsawed amid thin volumes ahead of the Fed rate decision. The euro swung between gains and losses as it traded in a narrow range; Sweden’s krona rallied to a three-month high against the euro after the Riksbank reasserted its tightening plans in a parliament hearing, while also benefiting from a continued strong demand for global equities. Norway’s krone and Canadian dollar were also supported by equities and by stabilizing oil prices. The Aussie got a boost from stronger-than-forecast Chinese trade data; the kiwi reversed gains as the greenback gained traction after the London open; it earlier rose as the central bank held rates and removed an explicit reference to a rate cut in its policy statement. The yen weakened as a rally in Japanese stocks damped haven demand.

In commodities, WTI inched up 0.6 percent to $62.03 a barrel after falling to an eight-month low of $61.20 on Wednesday. Oil prices struggled after surging U.S. crude output hit another record and domestic inventories rose more than expected.

Expected economic events include U.S. Federal Reserve rate decision and jobless-claims data. Bombardier, Hydro One, and Disney are among companies reporting earnings

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.4% to 2,805.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.5% to 368.09
  • MXAP up 0.9% to 154.46
  • MXAPJ up 0.5% to 493.73
  • Nikkei up 1.8% to 22,486.92
  • Topix up 1.7% to 1,681.25
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.3% to 26,227.72
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.2% to 2,635.63
  • Sensex up 0.7% to 35,237.68
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.5% to 5,928.24
  • Kospi up 0.7% to 2,092.63
  • German 10Y yield rose 1.3 bps to 0.46%
  • Euro down 0.08% to $1.1417
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 5.9 bps to 2.967%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 1.9 bps to 1.621%
  • Brent futures up 0.8% to $72.67/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.3% to $1,223.05
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.3% to 96.25

Top Overnight News

  • U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May has begun briefing her Cabinet on the text of the almost-complete Brexit deal, as her negotiators seek to finalize the last outstanding issue in Brussels
  • U.S. Special Counsel Robert Mueller could challenge the appointment of Matt Whitaker as acting attorney general by saying that his predecessor, Jeff Sessions, didn’t leave voluntarily but was forced out by the president, a former federal prosecutor said
  • After weeks of accusing Rome of too- optimistic assumptions about the effect of its spending plans, the EU said Thursday that economic growth next year will be weaker than the government targets, and the nation’s budget will move dangerously close to the EU limit of 3 percent
  • The $20 billion that Japanese funds pumped into American sovereign debt in September, the most in more than two years, signals that the debate many of them have been having about currency hedging may be over. Even with 10-year Treasuries offering yields of more than 3 percent, hedging would have eliminated the gains, according to calculations by Bloomberg
  • European central banks are putting their dollar reserves to work in Japan, lured by attractive premiums paid by currency hedgers; U.K. and French investors have been the top two buyers of Japanese short-term debt in the first three quarters of the year, according to data from the Ministry of Finance
  • The ECB will review how its 2.6 trillion-euro ($3 trillion) bond-buying program is divided among euro-zone nations. Bloomberg Economics calculates that the changes could mean purchases of Italian bonds drop by 750 million euros next year, with those of Germany climbing by 1 billion euros

Major European indices are mixed (Eurostoxx 50 -0.2%) after beginning the session in the green, the SMI (+0.4%) is leading the gains, while Italy’s FTSE MIB (-0.5%) lags its peers. Similarly, after starting the session in the green major sectors are now somewhat mixed. underperformance is being seen in the consumer discretionary sector while financial names are outperforming as the sector is buoyed by SocGen (+2.8%) and Commerzbank (+6.0%) post-earnings. In terms of individual movers, Prosiebensat (-16.0%) are at the bottom of the Stoxx 600 after a miss on their earnings, while UniCredit (-2.0%) are also lower following pessimistic earnings due to write-downs for Turkey not being factored into estimates.

Top European News

  • Commerzbank Gets Boost From Retail Unit as Zielke Adds Clients
  • Siemens Raises Dividend as Health, Software Mask Power Loss
  • U.K. May Revive Belgian Truck Ferry Route to Ease Brexit Snags
  • Two Years of Pound Pain May Be Over With $1.50 On Brexit Deal

Asian stocks were mostly higher as they took impetus from the post-election rally seen on Wall St where all majors gained at least 2% and the DJIA notched more than a 500-point gain as investors ploughed back into stocks after the US mid-terms results conformed to the broad consensus. ASX 200 (+0.5%) and Nikkei 225 (+1.9%) were both firmer from the get-go with tech the outperformer in Australia after a similar strong showing of the sector in US, while the Japanese benchmark ignored the largest drop on record for Machine Orders and was boosted by a weaker currency. Shanghai Comp. (-0.1%) and Hang Seng (+0.9%) initially benefitted from the heightened global risk appetite with the latter underpinned by a decline in money market rates after the PBoC’s bill sale in Hong Kong the prior day, while participants also digested the latest trade data from China in which Trade Balance slightly missed but Exports and Imports both topped estimates. Finally, 10yr JGBs initially tracked the downside in USTs as the rampant tone in equities weighed on safe-havens but with losses stemmed following firmer demand at today’s enhanced liquidity auction for 2yr-20yr JGBs.

Top Asian News

  • Nike, LVMH Back Up China’s Piracy Efforts in Contrast to Trump
  • Takeda Offers Euro Denominated Bonds to Help Fund Shire Deal
  • APA Plunges Most Since 2008 as Australia Blocks CK Pipeline Bid
  • Treasuries Above 3% May Be Altering Japan Funds’ Math on Hedging

In currencies, the DXY index is holding relatively firm above the 96.000 handle within a fairly confined range awaiting the Fed and confirmation that it remains on course to deliver a 4th and final 25 bp hike in December. However, the Dollar is not ahead across the board vs G10 counterparts as it continues to struggle in wake of the mid-term/midweek wobble, and certain currency rivals glean support from independent factors. SEK/NOK/AUD/CAD – All outperforming, albeit to varying degrees and not necessarily for obvious or intuitive reasons. The Scandi crowns have hawkish Central Bank vibes and mainly strong economic/fiscal fundamentals, as Eur/Sek tests 10.2600 bids/support having breached a key tech level above 10.3000 and Eur/Nok revisits 9.5000 with added fuel from a rebound in oil prices, albeit from fairly deep lows. Meanwhile, the drew some encouragement from upbeat Chinese imports and exports overnight to edge a fraction closer to 0.7300 and the Loonie heads into Canadian housing data back above 1.3100, also with the aid of recovering crude. GBP/CHF/EUR – Yet more conflicting Brexit reports for the Pound to contend with and keeping Cable choppy within 1.3090-1.3150 parameters, but Eur/Gbp softer around 0.8700 in wake of news that UK PM May is heading back to Brussels for more talks and suggestions via the Austrian press citing EC sources that a deal could be reached as early as Monday. The Franc is back below parity and single currency also whippy amidst latest EU-Italian divergence on Rome’s 2019 budget projections and assumptions about deficit developments – Eur/Usd between 1.1410-45, and also eyeing decent option expiry related interest from 1.1415-25 (1.3 BN).

In commodities, WTI (+0.5%) and Brent (+0.6%) are both higher following yesterday’s sell-off as China’s October crude imports reached a record high of 9.61mln BPD, a 32% Y/Y increase, hence watering down concerns that a slowdown in their economy may lead to a glut in the oil market. Upside in oil prices are capped amid yesterday’s EIA data which showed a record production of 11.6mln barrels of US crude. Gold (-0.2%) prices have eased as the dollar rebounded from post-midterms lows ahead of the FOMC meeting later today. Elsewhere, Chinese aluminium exports fell 3.6% from September’s level, as sliding domestic production meant there was less available metal for overseas markets. Furthermore, copper underperforms today after China’s imports of the red metal falling by 18.7%, signalling lower demand.

Looking at the day ahead, highlight is the Fed meeting. Prior to that the data releases this morning include September trade balance readings in Germany and France and also the European Commission’s latest economic forecasts update. In the US we’re only due to get the latest weekly initial jobless claims print. Also worth flagging today are scheduled comments from ECB President Draghi in Dublin at 3.20pm GMT.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 213,000, prior 214,000; Continuing Claims, est. 1.63m, prior 1.63m
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, prior 60.3
  • 2pm: FOMC Rate Decision

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

On the year-end rally, markets perfectly adhered to the usual post-midterms playbook yesterday as equities soared on Election Day +1. The NASDAQ (+2.64%) led the way with the NYSE FANG index also soaring +2.92% (Amazon +6.87%), closely followed by the S&P 500 (+2.12%) and DOW (+2.13%). The S&P 500 also went above its 200-day moving average for the first time since October 19th and has now retraced over 50% of the -9.88% decline the index took from the end of September into October 29th – the recent lows for the index. It’s also seen four >+1% moves in the last seven sessions. Volatility has certainly also fallen in recent weeks with the VIX yesterday falling -3.55pts (the biggest % fall since February) to 16.36 and its lowest since October 9th. That intraday high of 28.84 back on October 11th feels a while back now.

After a wide-ranging press conference where he dangled the prospect of bipartisan deals, President Trump accepted the resignation of Attorney General Jeff Sessions. His chief of staff Matthew Whitaker, who has called the Mueller investigation a “witch hunt,” will now take over oversight of the probe. This is a potential source of volatility moving forward, but vol and equity markets ignored the news amid yesterday’s euphoric rally.

Elsewhere, Europe also had a decent day yesterday too with the STOXX 600 rising +1.06% and European Banks +1.52% with Spanish lenders leading the way following a reversal of the mortgage tax verdict where banks were at risk of billions of euros of costs. Spanish banks were off the early highs of +5.81% to close +2.43%, as the Spanish PM suggested he regretted the reversal and would publish a decree to make the banks pay the tax going forward. Separately, the ECB nominated Andrea Enria (from Italy) to succeed Daniele Nouy as head of the central bank’s supervisory operations. The pick should clear the way for Bank of Ireland Governor Philip Lane to be appointed as successor to Peter Praet on the ECB’s Executive Board as Chief Economist. Lane is a pragmatist, so there should not be a major change to policy, though at the margin he may favour more macroprudential policies to limit financial excesses rather than interest rates, making him slightly more dovish on rates than otherwise.

Less one-way traffic was the move for oil yesterday. Following headlines out of Bloomberg suggesting that OPEC and allies were discussing production cuts for next year, Brent and WTI jumped as much as +2.40% and +2.45% from the early day lows before bearish supply data saw the oil complex give up all of those gains before closing -0.08% and -0.87% Brent and WTI respectively. On the potential cuts, remember that it was only back in June that we had the agreement among OPEC and major producers to boost output. Bloomberg quoted delegates as saying that the OPEC and allies coalition are likely to discuss the possibility of a cut this Sunday in Abu Dhabi.

As for other markets yesterday, well the other side of the midterm result was a weaker greenback (USD index -0.33%), and a flatter US curve. Ten-year yields closed +0.8bps higher after testing those seven-year highs just over 24 hours ago while 30-year yields fell -0.6bps. Two-year yields on the other hand were +2.9bps higher meaning the 2s10s curve flattened 2.1bps and the most in a month. The midterm results also helped the MSCI EM index to rise +0.57% while in FX the South African rand paced gains (+1.48%), however the Mexican peso fell -0.73%, possibly due to renewed concerns that the incoming Democratic House majority could delay or defeat the new USMCA deal, which has been negotiated to replace NAFTA.

Markets overnight have taken their cue from Wall Street with broad based gains across much of Asia. Leading the way is Japan where the Nikkei and Topix are +1.92% and +1.81% respectively, while the Kospi (+1.64%), Hang Seng (+0.96%) and Shanghai Comp (+0.61%) are also higher. The most notable overnight release has come in China where the October trade stats are out. Exports in both USD (+15.6% yoy vs. +11.7% expected) and CNY terms (+20.1% yoy vs. +14.2% expected) have risen faster than expected, resulting in a small widening of the trade surplus. One suggestion might be a front loading of shipments ahead of the implementation of higher tariffs in January.

So, with another political hurdle successfully dealt with its back to the more routine for markets with a Fed meeting to look forward to this evening. As a reminder this meeting doesn’t include a post-meeting press conference and is therefore unlikely to be a hugely exciting affair. Indeed the overriding consensus, both amongst economists and also in markets, is for no hike.

Our economists believe that the only “drama” about the statement will be around alterations to the Committee’s description of recent economic developments. They note that the statement can continue to see the pace of economic growth and job gains as strong, and can acknowledge that the unemployment rate has declined further. Household spending has continued to grow strongly as noted previously, but business investment has softened in recent months. The statement may make note of this, perhaps by using a phrase along the lines of: “Recent data suggest that growth of business fixed investment moderated from its strong first half pace.” Inflation will still be seen as remaining near 2%, with inflation expectations little changed on average despite recent declines in market-based measures. An acknowledgement of recent tightening in financial conditions is unlikely. Outside of the statement, there will be some focus on whether or not the Fed make another “technical adjustment” by reducing the IOER by 5bps, to ensure that the fed funds rate continues to trade within its target range. Our team think this will be deferred until December when they can again raise the IOER by 20bps, though the exact timing is not especially significant in terms of monetary policy. As such we’d expect a strong signal in today’s minutes.

Staying with politics and the daily Brexit update, there was a lot more noise yesterday but still little substance on the key question: the Northern Ireland border. According to Bloomberg, Prime Minister May has shared the draft text of the UK’s withdrawal package, though has not included the section of the deal covering the Irish border. Officials from the EU, including Commission President Tusk and Irish PM Varadkar signalled that a deal may near, but the details are still being negotiated and are accordingly unclear. Despite the lack of true news, the pound continued its recent grind higher, gaining +0.21% to $1.313 (which is where its hovering around this morning), and our strategists expect a full deal to be announced next week, at which point the UK political reaction will be key.

To the day ahead now, where the highlight is almost certain to be the aforementioned Fed meeting this evening. Prior to that the data releases this morning include September trade balance readings in Germany and France and also the European Commission’s latest economic forecasts update. In the US we’re only due to get the latest weekly initial jobless claims print. Also worth flagging today are scheduled comments from ECB President Draghi in Dublin at 3.20pm GMT.

 

 

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 5.71 POINTS OR 0.22% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 80.03 POINTS OR 0.31% //The Nikkei closed UP 401.12 OR 1.82%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.57%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.9320 AS POBC RESUMES  ITS HUGE DEVALUATION  /DELEGATION COMING TO THE USA TO SEE TRUMP IN NOVEMBER /Oil UP to 61.91 dollars per barrel for WTI and 72.17 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//.  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED WELL DOWN AT 6.9320 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED WELL DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9266: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS RESUMES// TRADE TALKS NOW ON   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING SLIGHTLY WEAKER  AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

 

North Korea/South Korea/USA/China

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

Japanese machine order collapse by a huge 18.3% month over month and this is an early gauge of future capital spending.  This comes on the heel of poor domestic and household spending last night.  This should cause the GDP level to finally fall in the negative category.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Japanese Machine Orders Crash Most On Record As

BoJ Member Admits “Can’t Solve Structural Problems”

Just two days ago we exposed the abject failure of Abenomics as even allowing for distortions from the natural disasters which hit Japan, the machinery orders data will only embolden the BOJ to stay the course.

September Japanese Core Machine Orders crashed 18.3% MoM (more than double the 9% drop expected and considerably worse than the impact of the tsunami). That is the greatest monthly collapse in orders ever and led to machine orders collapsing 7% YoY (when expectations were for a 7.7% rise YoY)…

Worse still, historically, core machine orders are an early indicator of future capital spending, and exclude volatile orders for ships and orders from electrical power companies’

It comes on the back of the negative print for real cash earnings and the slide in household spending earlier this week. And all this before the sales-tax hike planned for next year.

The utterly dismal data adds to signs that gross domestic product may have contracted slightly in the third quarter…

And just in case you’re holding your breath for some “terrible news is great news” reaction from The Bank of Japan’s inglorious bag of tricks – “Wasurete kudasai”…

As one member of BoJ sheepishly admitted tonight: Monetary policy can’t solve structural problems.”

I bet the gravely indebted, aging population of Japan wishes he figured that out about 20 or 30 years ago!! Persistent easing is not going away... and if we were betting people, we’d suspect ‘helicopter money‘ is coming, after another BoJ member proclaimed:

closer policy coordination with the government seems needed.”

 
END

3 C CHINA

Trouble ahead in China as we are now witnessing the first bank run in the city of Zigong on the Bank of Zigong.  It seems that shareholders of a shell company absconded with over 5.7 billion dollars and one person has been arrested.  This caused a major bank run as depositors rushed to remove their money from the bank. Also another key shareholder of the bank is also in trouble loaded up to its gills in debt.  This could be the big signal for future bank runs and also the removal of yuan from citizens bank accounts as these funds seek shelter in foreign lands

a must read…

(courtesy zerohedge)

Bank Run In Southwestern Chinese City Could Signal “Impending

Financial Crisis” 

Ever since China’s shadow banking sector peaked two years ago, one of Beijing’s biggest financial and social stability concerns was of widespread, out-of-control bank runs which if left unchecked, could cripple China’s massive, $35+ trillion financial sector, and which prompted the authorities to launch an aggressive deleveraging campaign targeting China’s shadow banks.

And while China has had its close encounters with the occasional bank jog, it always succeeded in intercepting them just in time, or threatening a crackdown if such “behavior” persisted; as a result financial stability was preserved.

That may be about to change: in what the Epoch Times warns could be the “sign of an impending financial crisis”, a small local bank in the southwestern Chinese city of Zigong just suffered a bank run.

Shareholders of Bank of Zigong in Sichuan Province absconded with 40 billion yuan ($5.78 billion), through loans issued to shell companies that they had created, according to a Nov. 2 post in a Chinese social-media account, and a report by Da Zhong, a state-run news website. The loans were long overdue, resulting in huge losses for the bank.

Even though the post was deleted within 20 minutes by internet censors, the news spread like wildfire and scores of bank customers rushed to dozens of bank branches in Zigong City to retrieve their deposits, while long lines of people could be seen from photos of the scene and uploaded by netizens.

Photos uploaded onto social media of the customer lines at Bank of Zigong branches in Sichuan Province. The last photo is a customer’s queue ticket for customer service 

Shortly after, the Zigong City branch of the national bank regulator, China Banking Regulatory Commission, sent out an emergency notice seeking to calm customers. The notice indicated that the Bank of Zigong, which was founded in 2001 and has 32 branches in the city of 1.2 million people, is running normally and has sufficient cash flow for reserve funds.

While the local police also announced the arrest of the person who spread the “online rumors”, that didn’t stop customers from rushing to the bank. Though the rumors were unconfirmed, the resulting bank run by panicked customers could spell serious trouble. As more customers try to withdraw funds, Bank of Zigong may eventually default.

That would have broader repercussions for the Chinese economy, as the Bank of Zigong exemplifies a common situation in many regions across China. Like many economic hubs in China, municipal authorities in Zigong have borrowed large sums from the Bank of Zigong to finance local infrastructure projects. The bank explicitly explains on its website that the institution supports initiatives by the city’s Communist Party committee and government authorities such as building projects, city redevelopment, state-owned enterprises reform, and more, according to the Epoch Times.

Zigong City, as with many other municipal governments, has set up local investment firms as a popular option to borrow money. But that has led to enormous debt that governments couldn’t repay. The Chinese regime recently published rules that allow these investment firms to file for bankruptcy if they don’t have the funds to repay their debts—highlighting the severity of the situation.

Economists – at least those outside of China – have warned that when the city investment firms go bankrupt, the domino effect on banks that loaned money to them, as well as the private individuals and companies that invested in them, would be detrimental.

“When city investment firms have no way to repay their debts, the Bank of Zigong will be in a crisis,” said Zhao Pei, a current affairs commentator at NTD Television, part of the Epoch Media Group.

More ominously, Twitter user Cao Ji, a former professor in Shanghai, who now does academic research in Taiwan said that if there is a bank run at the Bank of Zigong, this means a financial crisis in China will begin from these local small banks.”

Meanwhile, there are also clues that what was said in the initial social-media post that sparked panic may be true. The post listed three companies as the bank’s majority shareholders: a real estate company; a conglomerate with portfolios in residential development, commercial real estate, and manufacturing equipment; and China Western Power, a firm that manufactures and distributes boilers.

China Finance Information, a financial data portal, released a public announcement stating that after China Western Power invested in Bank of Zigong, it became the bank’s largest shareholder, with a 20% stake.

However, according to an Oct. 8 report by the Changjiang Times newspaper, China Western Power is currently in financial distress, due to – what else – high levels of debt. As of the end of June, the company’s debt-to-asset ratio reached 77.52%, an increase of 10% from the end of 2015. The company also needs to repay 1.01 billion yuan (about $146 million) in loans by year’s end, and may be unable to meet its obligations.

The company’s shares have continually fallen since May, and such financial straits would match the claims in the initial social-media post.

There has been no additional information on whether the bank run involving the Bank of Zigong has been successfully halted, however as we noted just yesterday in “China’s Middle Class Is Again Desperate To Move Its Money Out Of The Country“, incidents such as this one demonstrate just how brittle China’s banking system truly is, if the mere speculation of capital or liquidity insufficiency is able to prompt a vicious bank run. And while the large, state-owned banks are sufficiently capitalized, the risk is that either any of the remaining shadow banking institutions or small, undercapitalized regional banks are swept away before the government can respond, resulting in a mass financial crisis.

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

italy

Italian yields rise 6 basis points to 3.40% and within spitting distance of the spread btw. German bunds and Italian bunds at 2.94%.  At 3.00% differential banks in Italy begin to fail.  The problem is their budget and so growth. Brussels rejects their budget because it would widen to 2.9% next year and then over 3% which is a no no.

a must read…

(courtesy zerohedge)

Italian Bond Yields Jump After EU Projects Debt Limit

Breach

Italy’s bond yields jumped and the euro dropped after the EU said the country’s deficit assumptions would breach its 3.0% limit by 2020.

In a report released as part of its overview of the European economy, the EU warned Rome’s growth estimates were too optimistic and that the deficit would widen to 2.9% next yearfar above the government’s 2.4% target. The deficit would then rise above the bloc’s 3% limit in 2020.

The report marks the latest shot in the ongoing standoff between Brussels and Rome over Italy’s expansionary budget. While Italy’s government says it needs to support an economy that’s underperformed the euro area for years, the EU and investors are worried what it will do to the country’s mountain of debt, the second largest as a percentage of GDP in Europe after Greece.

In the report, the European Commission forecasts:

  • GDP growth of 1.2% next year, well below the government’s target of 1.5%
  • The decline in GDP has implications for the budget deficit, which is now seen widening to 2.9% next year and 3.1% the following year.
  • The government’s targeted 2.4% deficit for 2019 was flatly rejected by the commission.

The EU said the growth outlook is subject to “high uncertainty amid intensified downside risks,” including a further jump in government borrowing costs. Italy’s ongoing deficit standoff has already sent Italian bond yields to a four-year highs.

Given the “fiscal deterioration” and risks to growth, the EU also warned Italy’s large debt-to-GDP ratio won’t decline through 2020, refuting Italy’s optimistic predictions of a decline in debt/GDP.

“We need to get closer together, but we need to respect the rules,” Moscovici told reporters in Brussels. “We would like Italy to remain what it is — a major country within the euro zone. There’s no future for Italy outside the euro zone.”

The commission also warned about the impact of higher debt-financing costs on lenders, singling out Italy as one of the “high-debt euro area countries” where “disruptive sovereign-bank loops could also re-emerge in case of doubts about the quality and sustainability of public finances.” As Bloomberg notes, “while the EU’s forecast language is gloomy, the reality may turn out to be worse.”

“Even the EU forecasts themselves look too optimistic,” said Lorenzo Codogno, visiting professor at London School of Economics and a former chief economist at the Italian finance ministry. “The impact of higher borrowing costs on the banks’ loan rates is set to limit economic growth even further.”

The EU wants Rome’s budget plans revised, but the government is refusing to yield. Finance Minister Giovanni Tria signaled this week that the government is not ready to budge on its controversial budget even as his euro-area counterparts called on Italy to prepare revised spending plans.

To keep negotiations alive, Tria told reporters after a Monday meeting in Brussels that the government will pursue a dialogue with the Commission. In setting the Nov. 13 deadline for a resubmitted budget, the commission said the original plan constituted a clear deviation from EU rules. Tria will meet on Friday in Rome with Portugal’s Mario Centeno, the head of the Eurogroup of finance ministers.

After the release of the report, yields on Italian bonds extended an increase this week, rising above 3.40% on Thursday morning,  with the spread over those on their German peers climbing five basis points to 294 basis points.

“The sentiment is obviously negative for Italian bonds,” said Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, head of fixed-income research at Danske Bank A/S. “Things are of course heating up ahead of the deadline on Tuesday.”

Still, it was not all bad news: further disagreement with Italy is already “widely expected” by the market and there is still scope for improvement in sentiment toward the nation’s bonds, according to Mizuho International Plc. “We’re not expecting much of a sell-off in BTPs beyond a short term ‘knee-jerk’ reaction,” wrote strategists Peter Chatwell and Antoine Bouvet in a note to clients. They recommended buying five-year bonds versus their two- and eight-year peers.

end
Jeffrey Snider delves into the manufacturing giants for Europe, Germany and Italy which both together represent 44% of output.  Germany is slowing down, while Italy’s growth lowered to zero percent.  All of Europe has a negative PMI.  This is a global warning and no doubt Europe’s economic demise.  The tightening effects started in 2008 is now beginning to show its ugly head in Europe.
(Jeffrey Snider/Alhambra Partners

Europe’s Economic Demise Is A Global Warning:

“Tightening Conditions Are Already Causing

Disruptions”

Authored by Jeffrey Snider via Alhambra Investment Partners,

Harmful Modern Myths & Legends

Loreley Rock near Sankt Goarshausen sits at a narrow curve on the Rhine River in Germany. The shape of the bluff produces a faint echo in the wind, supposedly the last whispers of a beautiful maiden who threw herself from it in despair once spurned by her paramour. She was transformed into a siren, legend says, a tantalizing wail which cries out and lures fishermen and tradesmen on the great river to their death.

While it makes a great story for local conversation, this part of the Rhine is now treacherous for far different reasons. Drought in middle Europe has caused water levels to drop, in places like near Loreley Rock making the river unnavigable.Nearly all freight coming from the lowlands passes through here on its way to Germany’s industrial heartland.

In more ancient times, it would have been a catastrophe. In modern times, it is an inconvenience, an economic inefficiency of the kind that strikes anywhere in the world with regularity. Rather than by boat, material and goods are being diverted to railroads and highways.

Still, there are going to be costs. According to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy this will mean German GDP in Q3 2018 contracted by 0.3%Together with disruption in Germany’s automobile industry because of its slow reaction to the worldwide harmonized light-duty vehicles test procedure, the engine of Europe is experiencing a transitory blip.

Eurostat has already put together a flash estimate for the Euro Area’s GDP in Q3. Presumably these include something for Germany, even though that specific country’s statistics bureau, Destatis, won’t release its figures until midmonth. The Continental numbers are already alarming.

No matter, claims Keil. There are excuses already handy for anyone thinking Europe’s economic boom is fizzling (or has fizzled). We are back to Economists’ infatuation with weather and climate. It was a common enough thing several years ago, particularly 2015, when sudden snowstorms, or wet weather, were blamed for “unexpected” weakness. In this case, apparently, drought works just as well in that role.

While we don’t know exactly what Germany’s GDP will come in at, Italian officials have provided theirs. Germany and Italy together accounted for 44% of Europe’s total output in Q2 2018, the group’s first and third largest individual economies. In Q3, Italian real GDP growth was basically zero (+0.021%, Q/Q).

This, too, isn’t supposed to be concerning. Italian GDP has grown for 15 straight quarters including the near miss in that last one. This is what matters, they say, along with the withered Rhine. In other words, the economy must be doing just fine despite all these things.

Mario Draghi indicated last month that he saw transitory factors in these places, too. Among them:

But [Draghi] attributed some of the weakness to one-time factors, such as the introduction of new European Union emissions standards that proved tougher than expected for auto manufacturers to meet. Deliveries slumped because the carmakers had trouble getting regulators to approve new models for sale.

Sure, but none of that would explain Italy nor Europe’s sudden deceleration in 2018 where acceleration was supposed to be. And it doesn’t in any way account for the either Italy or Germany the past ten years.

Germany has fared far better than Italy in the post-crisis era but if that’s the best Europe’s economy can do then the whole place is in deep trouble.

This, ultimately, is what matters more about 2018 and more so 2019. The European economy Germany included has never recovered from 2008. It is this one fact that explains everything. While it’s easy to blame drought, emissions, or even the poor woman of Loreley Rock, those are all just legends being told so people can feel better about very real dangers.

These are growing, not one-off. I wrote a few weeks ago:

The one thing the globally synchronized growth narrative had going for it was sentiment. It often had that in surplus. But therein lies a major drawback; are people happy because things are getting better, or do they believe things are getting better because “everyone” says so? There’s a difference and it’s a big one.

IHS Markit reported yesterday that its Composite PMI for the Eurozone in October fell to the lowest level in two years.

Both the manufacturing and service sectors recorded slower rates of growth during October. Following on from September, manufacturing registered the weaker increase in output, posting its lowest growth in nearly four years…The downturn in overall activity growth was linked to a weaker gain in incoming new business. October’s survey data showed new work rising at a modest pace that was the slowest since September 2016.

Markit’s Chief Economist Chris Williamson didn’t mention the Rhine, emissions, nor mythical stories, but I bet he wished he could have. Instead, Williamson to his credit zeroes in on the real issues:

An export-led slowdown, linked to growing trade tensions and tariffs, has been exacerbated by rising political uncertainty, growing risk aversion and tightening financial conditions.

In fact, those prior factors (trade tensions, rising political uncertainty, growing risk aversion) all trace back to the last one (tightening financial conditions). It sure does in Italy where the Italian economy is not just at risk of shrinking, but shrinking some more. The political situation for the boot is a product of the economy being decimated by 2008 and afterward, the lack of upside for all the continuous downside.

Now that it may be back again, at best it portends uncertainty as Williamson acknowledges. Uncertainty is a killer for an economy in a precarious state.

And that’s the one thing Mario Draghi cannot concede; ever. He has, like his counterparts elsewhere around the world, thrown everything on this one. This globally synchronized growth was supposed to be the happy ending that fixes most if not all these lingering, festering economic, political, and social sore spots. A real recovery would do that, not be uniformly bothered by emissions regulations.

Unfortunately, the direction toward which Europe is now heading suggests this, like the others, just isn’t going to be a real recovery. The European economy is a global warning that “tightening financial conditions” are already causing very real economic disruption. It has been quite expected.

We’ve seen the upside and it is minimal, way less than what is required. Denial won’t help; in fact, it will continue to sow mistrust and incivility. Mario Draghi, as Jay Powell, they are our modern sirens.

end

UK

Our resident expert on the Brexit is Mish Shedlock.  He lists 4 possible outcomes and it is probably better than there is no deal but many mini deals.

a must read…

(courtesy Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

Time’s Running Out For A Brexit Deal (And That’s A

Good Thing)

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

There is still no Brexit deal and if there isn’t one soon, the world will not end…

At 11 PM local time on March 29 2019, the UK is scheduled to leave the bloc. A deal is still not in place.

Preparing for a No-Deal Brexit

Eurointelligence has an interesting take called Preparing for a No-Deal Brexit Between Friends

The truth is there are simply no newsworthy Brexit developments. The reason is that, as of now, there is still no majority for a deal.

So let us focus instead on smaller pieces of the puzzle that might become relevant later.

One of those was a small item in the Financial Times from the Hauts-de-France region in Northern France, whose president is demanding a constructive attitude by the EU in the case of a no-deal Brexit. Expect to hear more of this as we approach the Brexit deadline. If the EU plays it tough to the bitter end, not only Hauts-de-France will be clobbered along with the UK.

The EU could in theory turn a no-deal exit into a de-facto blockade of the UK. But a far more likely scenario would be a no-deal Brexit accompanied by a multitude of mini-deals to keep goods and people flowing for a short transitional period (not to be confused with the 21-month transitional period now under discussion in the Brexit negotiations).

The simple reason is that this would be in the best interest of the regions of northern France, Belgium, the Netherlands and parts of Germany, all of which are very keen to keep the disturbance to their economies to a minimum.

The FT has interviewed the president of Hauts-de-France, who wants a no-deal transition until the French and UK governments have a border infrastructure in place to guarantee orderly flows. He has calculated that an extra clearance time of just two minutes per truck would produce vast queues on both sides of the channel.

The trucks, companies and factories that will be blocked will be those of the north of France, the whole of France and Germany.”

The Cards

As I stated all along the EU does not hold all the cards.

If anything, the UK has stronger cards because the UK is Germany’s biggest export partner.

Now, even France is showing concerns. Solidarity was a big bluff all along by the EU.

Moreover, the longer the delays in reaching a deal, the more likely there is no deal.

Why?

Because of all the preparations both sides must make for a no-deal scenario. The more preparations that are in place, the less scary a no-deal Brexit becomes.

There still may be a deal, but it would take a concerted and foolish effort by Theresa May.

The best scenario is a series of mini-deals.

According to Eurointelligence, Philip Hammond reiterated yesterday that the UK would pay its exit bill, or parts of it, even in case of a no-deal. This is a sign of the willingness to agree if needed a no-deal type of deal.

Four Options

  1. Pay part of the Brexit Bill and get significant concessions from the EU in a series of mini-deals.
  2. Pay none of the Brexit Bill, close fishing right, etc, and keep the money with repercussions.
  3. Cave in further to EU demands in return for some kludge on Ireland.
  4. Prolong the agony

I did not list another vote because it’s not going to happen.

It is unclear if either the EU or the Tories would accept number four. An attempt by May to enter a prolonged Brexit period could bring down her government. And prolonging the agony still does not solve the Irish border problem.

For the most part, Theresa May has done number three, but it still has not solved the Irish problem because the EU hasn’t budged.

Other than to ignore the Irish border, which I propose in the even of no carve-out, there is no realistic solution.

John Crace

✔@JohnJCrace

Last month Theresa May said we were 95% agreed on a Brexit deal. Today she said we have made significant progress in the last few weeks and have agreed 95% of a Brexit deal. Help me…

Adam Bienkov

✔@AdamBienkov

Theresa May’s Cabinet met for almost three hours this morning to discuss Brexit. Not a single decision was made.

Theresa May wants a deal.

She would be better off with a hard Brexit and a series of mini-deals now that Germany and France are finally scared of the consequences.

*  *  *

And finally, if you wondered how we got here… Daniel Hannan perfectly enunciates it here..

.

end

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

SYRIA/UAE

This is a huge shift:  UAE after 6 years is contemplating reopening its embassy in Damascus and this flies in the face of the USA.  If this happens UAE can supply vital financing needs to Syria which in turn weakens the influence of the USA in the region

(courtesy zerohedge)

In Huge Shift, UAE To Reopen Embassy In Damascus

As Gulf Rapprochement With Assad Likely

Regional Middle East media have been circulating early reports that the United Arab Emirates is preparing to re-open its embassy in Damascus after six years of closure, which is to kickstart a new regional shift. This comes as Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries are reportedly strongly considering the restoration of diplomatic ties with the Assad government after all GCC states had closed their Syrian embassies in 2012.

The significance of this is huge, coming after seven years of war driven by an official policy of Syrian regime change by these very GCC governments, foremost among them Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar. Restoration of ties also means countries like the UAE could be major sources of financing reconstruction projects at a key moment when the United States is attempting to block all aid that could benefit the Syrian government.

Damascus, Syria. via ReutersAccording to Al Masdar News Abu Dhabi has “ordered full maintenance works to its Syrian embassy to be ready for opening within the next two weeks.” 

Such a speedy turn around signals the UAE is ready to acknowledge Assad as the legitimate leader of Syria after emerging victorious as the international proxy war continues to wind down, and likely with other Gulf states to follow.

Prominent Syria analyst Joshua Landis noted this week there’s currently a monumental realignment underway as regional powers hasten to restore ties with Damascus:

Bahrain, Kuwait, Egypt and Jordan are reopening relations with the Syrian government. This suggests that they are not fighting “Sunnis,” but extremists that they seem to consider common enemies. No longer Sunni vs Shia – but Conservative vs Radical. Or Governments vs insurgents.

The rationale for this is also tied up in regional rivalries and the continuing fallout of the internal GCC schism, which has pitted Saudi Arabia and the UAE against Qatar.

UAE Embassy in Damascus, SyriaAmong the first to report the news is an expert who goes by the name Ehsani and writes for the influential analysis blog, Syria Comment — he’s obtained rare insider commentary from senior Syrian government sources concerning the historic shift and potential restoration of relations with GCC countries.

Ehsani presented his analysis based on insider sources as follows

* * *

Syria, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia are on the cusp of forming a new regional alliance to defeat the ideology and expansion of the Muslim Brotherhood long championed and supported by Qatar and Turkey.

This important shift comes on the back of intense and comprehensive meetings that took place recently in Abu Dhabi. The common objective of the parties is to stabilize Syria and ensure the return of the secular state that existed prior to 2011.

View image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on Twitter

EHSANI2@EHSANI22

SIGNIFICANT: #SYRIA #UAE #SAUDI ARE ON CUSP OF FORMING A NEW REGIONAL ALLIANCE TO DEFEAT THE IDEOLOGY AND EXPANSION OF THE MOSLEM BROTHERHOOD LONG CHAMPIONED AND SUPPORTED BY #QATAR #TURKEY

EXPECT REOPENING OF UAE EMBASSY IN DAMASCUS TO KICK START THE NEW REGIONAL SHIFT

There is no doubt that this new shift will create a challenge for Damascus when it comes to its relations with its long ally Iran. At the same time, this shift will also be a perfect opportunity for Damascus to prove its independence when it comes to foreign policy.

The thinking in Gulf capital revolves around the idea that a stronger and more stable Syria is the best way to slow and reverse the expansion of Iran in the region. After all, Tehran’s influence was seen as to have grown as the Syrian state got weaker since 2011.

Meanwhile the Trump administration has launched its most concerted effort yet to pressure the Saudis to end the conflict in Yemen. Both Mattis and Pompeo in recent days have said “the time has come to halt more than three years of conflict”.

Once the war on Yemen subsides and soon comes to a halt following US pressure, this is likely to have positive impact on the region and will add traction to this UAE/Saudi/Syrian rapprochement. The money that is now wasted on this war can be better spent stabilizing Syria.

end

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

 

7  OIL ISSUES

8. EMERGING MARKETS

INDIA

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:00

Euro/USA 1.1419 DOWN .0013 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES ALL MIXED

 

 

 

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 113.65  UP 0.084  (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL

GBP/USA 1.3114 UP   0.0012  (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED

USA/CAN 1.3093  DOWN .0024 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS TUESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL by 13 basis point, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1419; / Last night Shanghai composite CLOSED DOWN 5.71 POINTS OR 0.22%

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 80.03 POINTS OR 0.31% 

 

 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP  0.57% /EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL MIXED

 

 

 

The NIKKEI: this TUESDAY morning CLOSED UP 401.12 POINTS OR 1.82%

 

 

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

1/EUROPE OPENED  MIXED

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 80.03 POINTS OR 0.31% 

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 5.71POINTS OR 0.22%

 

 

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.57%

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 401.12 POINTS OR 1.82%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1224.80.

silver:$14.53

Early THURSDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 3.22% !!! DOWN 2 IN POINTS from TUESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

The 30 yr bond yield 3.42 DOWN 2  IN BASIS POINTS from WEDNESDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 96.22 UP 23  CENT(S) from TUESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers THURSDAY MORNING

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And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

 

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.95% UP 2    in basis point(s) yield from WEDNESDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.12%  DOWN 0  BASIS POINTS from WEDNESDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/EXTREMELY VOLATILE YESTERDAY…

 

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.61% UP 1 IN basis point yield from WEDNESDAY

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.40 up 7   POINTS in basis point yield from WEDNESDAY/

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 179 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES UP TO +.45%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.95% DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM.

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY

Closing currency crosses for THURSDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1419 DOWN .0013 or 13 basis points

 

 

USA/Japan: 113.82 UP .244 OR 24 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3113 UP .0003( POUND UP 3 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 3 basis points to 1.3113

 

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This afternoon, the Euro was FELL BY 13 BASIS POINTS  to trade at 1.1419

The Yen FELL to 113.82 for a LOSS of 24 Basis points as NIRP is STILL a big failure for the Japanese central bank/HELICOPTER MONEY IS NOW DELAYED/BANK OF JAPAN NOW WORRIED AS AS THEY ARE RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY AS BOND YIELDS RISE

The POUND LOST 18 basis points, trading at 1.3109/

The Canadian dollar LOST 3 basis points to 1.3113

 

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY closed DOWN AT 6.9345-  ON SHORE  (YUAN DOWN)

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.9325(  YUAN DOWN)

TURKISH LIRA:  5.4525

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.12%

 

 

 

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield UP 3 IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at 3.22 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.42 UP 3 in basis points on the day /

THE RISE IN BOTH THE 10 YR AND THE 30 YR ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR VALUATIONS

Your closing USA dollar index, 96.27 UP 27 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for THURSDAY: 4:00 PM 

London: CLOSED UP 18.30 POINTS OR 0.26%

German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 59.93 POINTS  OR 0.52%
Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 13.48 POINTS OR 0.26%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 1.90 POINTS OR 0.02%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP:  111.80 POINTS OR 0,57%/

 

 

WTI Oil price; 61.10 1:00 pm;

Brent Oil: 71.42 1:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   ROUBLE CROSS:    66.59  THE CROSS HIGHER BY .36 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE LOWER by 36 BASIS PTS)

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA:  5.4525 PER ONE USA DOLLAR.

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES +.45 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM:60.64

 

BRENT:70.74

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.24%.. VERY deadly….

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.44%/. VERY .deadly…

 

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS: 1.1364 ( DOWN 68 BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:114.08 UP .509 (YEN DOWN 51 BASIS POINTS/ .

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 96.67 up 67 cent(s)/

The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.3064 DOWN 63 POINTS FROM YESTERDAY

the Turkish lira close: 5.4582

the Russian rouble:  66.74 DOWN 0.70 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( DOWN 70 BASIS POINTS)

 

Canadian dollar: 1.3155 DOWN 38 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) : 6.9345  (ONSHORE)

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH):  6.9376 (OFFSHORE)

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,0.45%

 

The Dow closed  UP 10.92 POINTS OR 0.04%

NASDAQ closed DOWN 139.87  points or 0.53% 4.00 PM EST


VOLATILITY INDEX:  16.72  CLOSED UP  0.36

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.6011%  .LIBOR  RATES ARE RISING/big jump today

 

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY

 

Crude Carnage Continues As Fed Sparks Dollar Pop, Stock Drop

Hawk ‘Flawless Victory’ today…

 

For the second day in a row, the afternoon session in China saw notable selling and no rescue…

 

An early pop in Europe faded quickly leaving DAX unchanged on the week… (Spanish stocks are outperforming)

 

US Stocks, Gold, and bonds ended lower (in price) post-Fed, USD higher…

Stocks were all lower post-Fed, even with the panic-bid into the close…

 

And US equities tried their best to rally after the open but it all fell apart after The Fed’s hawkish statement…

 

US equity markets bounce stalled at crucial technical levels (S&P 100DMA, Nasdaq 200DMA, Dow 50DMA)

 

After 5 straight days of short-squeezing higher, “Most Shorted” stocks ended red today…

 

VIX term structure shifted back into inversion today as stocks sank…

 

Energy stocks sank today – as you’d expect – finally starting to catch on the to collapse in crude…fun-durr-mentals

 

Yesterday’s exciting surge in FANG stocks stalled rather notably today…

 

Treasury yields were higher on the day (though the 30Y outperformed, ending unchanged) pushing higher after The Fed…

 

The yield curve flattened notably…

 

Either bond yields go lower or cyclicals are set to soar…

 

The USD Index was heading higher into the Fed statement and extending its gains notably after…

 

And as the dollar rallied, yuan slumped…

 

And EM FX plunged…

 

Dollar strength also weighed on cryptos…

 

Crude and Copper lead the commodity carnage this week and PMs faded too as the dollar jerked higher…

 

WTI Crude down 9 days in a row into a bear market, down 21.25% from Oct highs to 7-month lows(a Hawkish Fed and OPEC-break-up chatter did not help)…

 

In 33 years of futures contract trading, it has never been down 10 in a row…

 

Inflation Breakevens continue to decouple from crude’s collapse…

 

Finally, we leave you with this bigger picture chart…

As Bloomberg’s Ye Xie notes, as of June, the ratio stood at 45%, the highest since the dot.com bubble at the turn of the century. It suggests that the annual return for the next decade is close to zero (0.7% to be precise, based on the regression). In other words, the stock market would deliver negative returns after adjusting for expected inflation.

 

market trading

 

market data/FOMC RESULTS

The Fed signals that its rate hike trajectory is unphased by market volatility and they will gradually raise rates much to the anger of Trump

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

‘Hawkish’ FOMC Signals Rate-Hike-Trajectory Unphased By Market Volatility

Amid expectations of a nothingburger FOMC statement, The Fed delivered, leaving rates unchanged and signaling “further gradual rate increases ahead.”

However, they did note, as Goldman expected, a slight downgrade on business investment to “moderated from its rapid pace earlier in the year,” but positively noted that household spending “has continued to grow strongly.”

Inflation expectations remained “little changed, on balance,” as inflation remains near 2% target as risks to the outlook still “appear roughly balanced.”

Finally, there were no mentions of recent market volatility, changes to communications policy, the appropriate size of a normalized balance sheet, technical issues related to interest on excess reserves (no change to IOER) or the extent to which the fed funds rate may need to overshoot neutral in the current cycle. In other words, largely a neutral statement which due to its lack of any overt or unexpected dovish references is being seen as slightly hawkish and pushing the dollar higher.

*  *  *

Gold was the best-performer since The Fed hiked rates in September and stocks the worst…

And although most economists forecast ‘zero’ chance of a rate-hike today, Fed Funds imply a modest 13% chance the Fed would surprise – they didn’t.

Most eyes were on the statement looking for any cracks in the hawkish incessant rate-hike-trajectory put forward by Jay Powell as the market remains convinced The Fed is wrong…

Financial Conditions have tightened dramatically since the September rate-hike… in fact the biggest tightening of conditions since the first hike in Dec 2015…

Before today’s statement, markets implied around a 78% chance of a Dec rate-hike (and a conditional-on-December-hike 47% chance of a hike in March), after the statement, that barely moved after the statement.

*  *  *

Here is what Goldman was expecting – very little change to the statement…

Full redline of FOMC Statement:

President Trump will not be happy…

 

 

USA ECONOMIC STORIES OF INTEREST

Brandon Smith is one smart cookie.  He outlines how the economy will collapse and how the deep state will blame the conservative Republicans for the failure.  He outlines 5 major problems in the USA economy.

a must read…

(courtesy Brandon Smith.Alt-Market.com)

The Economy Does Not Care Who Won The Midterm Elections

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.com,

Over the past few weeks I received numerous requests from readers to publish my predictions on the outcome of the midterm elections, but I did not do so for a couple of reasons. First and foremost, I view the election process very differently from many people. I do not see it as legitimate in the slightest, therefore my predictions of the past have been based not on voter turnouts, polls or any other such nonsense.  Elections are molded events, framed under the false pretense that the Left/Right paradigm in politics is real. As far as the upper echelons of politics are concerned, the paradigm is completely theatrical.

To be sure, the average American does lean either “left” or “right” on the political spectrum. Such divisions are a natural part of social discourse. However, political theater is designed in most cases to drive citizens away from centrally shared principles of freedom and equal opportunity (not equal outcome) and push them to the far ends of the spectrum toward extremism and zealotry. And to be clear, there is no “good” form of zealotry.

Zealots are not self-aware, and they never subject their own positions to scrutiny. They operate on pure assumption that they are divinely correct in everything they do, and anyone who disagrees with them, even in the slightest, is an enemy that must be destroyed by any means necessary. Zealotry is the root of human atrocity. Zealots are a tidal wave of war and genocide. They are a cancer on the soul of mankind.

Certain groups of people within the establishment, namely globalists that desire total centralized control of every aspect of economy and society, prefer that the public remain as radicalized and divided as possible. For them, zealotry is an asset.

To pursue this goal, they purchase allegiance from politicians through various means, including financial favors, media favors and campaign contributions. There are very few people left in politics that are not part of “the club.” Both Democrat and Republican leaders are essentially on the same side — the globalist side. They attack each other with rhetoric, but when it comes down to actual policy and action, they are all very similar.

The outcome of elections is therefore erroneous in the long term. Their only purpose is to manipulate public psychology to a certain reactionary end game.

When I predicted the election of Donald Trump in 2016 many months before voting commenced, I did so based on which election outcome better served the interests of globalists. I concluded with the highest certainty that Donald Trump would “win” based on the same premise that drove me to predict the success of the Brexit vote in the U.K.; that premise being that the globalists would allow “populists” (conservatives) to gain an illusory foothold on political power, only to then collapse the global economy on their heads and blame them for the disaster.

At the time it was unclear whether Trump would play along with the globalist narrative of conservatives as “selfish bumbling villains.” Today, with his consistent relationships with banking elites and globalist think-tank members, it is obvious that Trump intends to play the role he has been given. Trump’s policy actions the past two years indicate that he is following a model very similar to the one Republican President Herbert Hoover used just before the crash of 1929. Trump was a perfect choice for the globalists.

So, the question I had to ask in terms of the midterm elections is, what outcome best serves globalist interests this time? The only conclusion I could come to in this instance was — it didn’t matter who wins the midterms. The globalists will get their economic crash regardless and conservatives will still be blamed.

The ultimate outcome turned out to be mixed, with Democrats taking the House and Republicans holding the Senate.  The assertion in the mainstream being that this will result in “political gridlock”.  In terms of stock markets, the reaction is not surprisingly euphoric, as it has been not long after almost every election event.  But there are many that assume this is a euphoria that will last.  This is a very short-term view of the situation that ignores economic reality.

It is certainly possible that equities will sustain a  jump on the news of a Republican win, but I see this as a very limited event, lasting perhaps one or two weeks. In the long run as December approaches, stocks and every other sector of the economy will continue accelerated declines seen in October.

Here are the facts:

New home sales, an indicator highly valued by mainstream economists, has been in decline for the past year, hitting two-year lows in September.

This has come as a surprise to many mainstream analysts because the story thus far has been that the U.S. is in advanced recovery which should continue the supposed rejuvenation of the housing market. Alternative economists will give you the real story on home sales, though.

The housing “boom” hailed in the mainstream over the past few years was a farce driven primarily by corporate behemoths like Blackstone.  Companies buying up distressed properties across the U.S. using cheap loans and bailouts through the Federal Reserve and turning them into rentals hardly constitutes a “recovery” in housing.

Regular homebuyers have also enjoyed artificially low mortgage rates for many years. But now, mortgage costs are spiking as the Fed raises interest rates, and corporate debt is becoming more expensive, making it less profitable for companies to continue vacuuming up properties.  Add to this the fact that the Fed is now dumping Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) from its balance sheet. These are the same securities that constituted a “toxic” influence that led to the mortgage and derivatives bubble. It is hard to say exactly what the effects will be as they add to existing ARM-style mortgages and derivatives already on the market, but I suspect the result will be destabilizing.

Auto sales, another fundamental indicator used in the mainstream as a signal for economic health, is also failing recently. U.S. auto sales plunged in September from 11 percent to 25 percent depending on the company and make of vehicle. While the mainstream media argues this massive year-over-year decline was due to destructive hurricanes in 2017 creating overt demand, the truth is that the average monthly payment on new vehicles has rocketed to over $525 and interest rates rise due to the Federal Reserve.

Car sales, new and used, have thrived in recent years in most part because of artificially low rates and ARM-like loans to people who cannot afford them. Much like the mortgage bubble in 2008, the auto bubble is set to implode as car payments become too expensive for the average buyer and defaults increase.

The US budget deficit climbed to six year highs under Donald Trump’s watch in 2018 as fiscal spending skyrockets.  Conservatives hoping for budget responsibility and reduced government spending are given a rude awakening once again, as Republicans and Democrats and Trump ALL seek bigger government.  This is hardly gridlock.  In fact, there has been resounding unity in Washington for ever increasing power, and ever increasing costs.

The trade deficit, which was supposed to decline aggressively in the face of Trump’s trade war, has actually climbed to record highs with China (among other nations).  I have heard claims that the outcome of the midterms will force Trump to end the trade war because he is no longer receiving backing from the Federal Reserve or Congress.  The trade war will not stop.  It provides perfect cover for central banks as they continue to remove artificial support from the overall economy.

Perhaps the biggest factor in economic decline in the U.S. will be corporate debt, as mentioned earlier. Corporate debt has jumped to record highs not seen since 2008, with debt-to-cash levels in 2017 hitting lows of 12 percent. Meaning, on average for every $1 of cash a company has in reserve it owes $8 in debt.

How is all this debt being generated? It’s all about stock buybacks. In 2018, U.S. corporations increased spending on stock buybacks by 48%, while only increasing spending on development by 19%. Meaning, corporations are spending far more capital, and borrowing far more money, just to keep their stock prices artificially propped up than they are spending money to invest in future growth.

For almost a decade stock markets have been dependent on two pillars: near zero interest rates and asset purchases by the Fed. Stock buybacks are reliant on low rates and the corporate ability to borrow essentially free money, which they then cycle into equities to buy up shares, reducing the amount of existing shares on the market and thereby increasing the value of the remaining shares through a form of legal manipulation.

But as the Fed raises rates and stops acting as the buyer of last resort, corporate borrowing becomes more expensive and buybacks will decline. In fact, the last half of 2018 shows a marked drop in announced buybacks, as the apparent peak in July fades.  As December approaches, the Fed is set to match interest rates with their official inflation rate, or the “neutral rate”.  This is something that has not been done for decades.

I believe stock buybacks will falter at this time, as the cost of the exorbitant debt needed to continue propping up stocks will become too high.

In 2016, globalists needed a “conservative” president to sit in the Oval Office as the Federal Reserve pulled the plug on artificial economic life support by raising interest rates into the greatest corporate debt crisis since 2008. At this point, that program seems to be in full swing.

The midterms are now over, but it is important to understand that where economic consequences are concerned, the result would have been the same no matter who came out on top. It makes sense for the globalists to desire a dominant Republican party, for when they crash markets the blame would fall entirely on the heads of conservatives. On the other hand, it also makes sense for globalists to introduce a Democratic takeover of Congress, for they can continue to push citizens to further political extremes as the Left blames the Right for the financial crisis while the Right blames the Left for political interference.

In the meantime, the banking elites can simply blame the extreme political divide, wait until the crash runs its course and then sweep in after the dust settles to admonish the “capitalist structure,” barbaric nationalism, populism, etc. They will shake their fingers at all of us as if we should be ashamed and then offer their own solution to the disaster, which will surely include even more centralization and more power for the banking class.

The Fed will continue to raise rates and cut assets.  The trade war will escalate. The housing market will continue to falter, auto markets will implode, and corporate debt will become a millstone on the neck of stock markets.

Economic function and repair are far beyond the scope of any political body to fix when the dysfunction reaches the point we are at today. To believe otherwise is foolhardy.  To believe that the political elites actually want to fix the economy is even more foolhardy. The answer is not replacing one set of political puppets with another set of political puppets, but for regular people to begin localizing their own production and trade — to decouple from dependency on the existing system and start their own system. Only through this, and the removal of the globalist tumor from its position of power and influence, will anything ever change for the better.

*  *  *

If you would like to support the publishing of articles like the one you have just read, visit our donations page here.  We greatly appreciate your patronage

END

Katherine Lackey of USA today describes that Yellowstone’s super volcano is not the biggest threat there but the risk of a huge earthquake

(courtesy Katherine Lackey/USAToday)

Forget The ‘Supervolcano’, This Is Yellowstone’s

Greatest Geological Threat

Authored by Katherine Lackey via USAToday.com,

While a potential eruption of the supervolcano that lies beneath this iconic park may garner more alarming headlines, the more likely hazard is a major earthquake…

https://uw-media.usatoday.com/embed/video/1044227002?placement=snow-embed

While concerns about a potential eruption of the supervolcano beneath this iconic park may garner the most alarming headlines, a more likely hazard in the coming decades is a large earthquake.

“The biggest concern we have for Yellowstone is not with the volcano, it’s with earthquakes,” said Michael Poland, scientist-in-charge at the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory, a consortium of eight organizations led by the U.S. Geological Survey.

“This is an underappreciated hazard in the Yellowstone area. There can and there will be in the future magnitude-7 earthquakes.”

On average, Yellowstone experiences 1,500 to 2,500 earthquakes a year, most of them so small they can’t be felt. But large quakes can – and have – occurred in the not-too-distant past.

On Aug. 17, 1959, a magnitude-7.3 earthquake rocked the park, killing 28 people when a landslide  roared through a campground. More than 80 million tons of rock fell, blocking a river and forming a lake, aptly named Earthquake Lake, that remains today.

Debris from a landslide blocks part of a road in Gibbon Canyon in Yellowstone National Park after a magnitude-7.3 earthquake struck the area on Aug. 17, 1959. (Photo: NPS file photo)

At the time, the quake was the second-largest in the lower 48 states in that century. It remains the largest historical earthquake in the Intermountain West, a region between the Rocky Mountains to the east and the Cascade Range and Sierra Nevada to the west.

Compared with even a minor eruption of Yellowstone’s super-volcano, the threat of an earthquake on a similar scale happening again is more likely.

“That’s something that happens on a human life scale,” Poland said. But unlike a volcano, large earthquakes don’t show warning signs.

“We can say where they are likely to occur, but we can’t say when.”

The hazards posed by a large quake today would be greater than what happened nearly 60 years ago due to a higher influx of visitors, especially in the summer. More than 4 million people visit Yellowstone every year, with peak visitation in July and August.

“It would be a lot worse today with more people in the area,” said Jamie Farrell, a geology professor at the University of Utah.

Yellowstone sits in a rural area with few roads. If one road goes out, it creates a huge detour, Farrell points out. If two roads become impassable, sometimes you can’t even get there by car.

“The good thing is that Yellowstone is one of the best seismically monitored regions in the world,” he said.

Boulders are seen on a road near Gibbon Falls in Yellowstone National Park after a magnitude-7.3 earthquake struck the area on Aug. 17, 1959. (Photo: NPS file photo)

More than 40 seismic stations with the University of Utah continuously record the Earth’s movements in and around the Yellowstone region and report back to the National Park Service.

“We can’t predict them, but by looking at past data, these earthquakes tend to cluster in areas,” Farrell said.

“Given what’s happened in the past, we can give a probability of having an earthquake over the next X amount of time.”

Minor earthquakes rattle the park pretty much every day. But visitors wouldn’t know it: The quakes are so small, they’re picked up only on seismographs.

Scientists watch those quake swarms diligently, keeping a close eye on the timing, location and depth. “We’re well aware there is a potential, because it’s a dynamic system, that we might want to actually move people away from an area or close an area,” said Jeff Hungerford, the park’s geologist.

The Yellowstone system has two main contributors to its earthquakes: the volcanic system, which puts stress on the crust, and the tectonic system, which is represented here by an area of active stretching of the crust from east to west. 

The earthquakes also play an important role in helping keepgeysers like Old Faithful rumbling.

“We need this seismicity to keep these beautiful features alive because they clean the throat of many of our geysers and pools,” Hungerford said.

In addition to a major quake causing landslides and damaging or collapsing buildings and bridges, there’s another hazard: It could trigger a hydrothermal explosion, a mixture of hot water, mud and rocks that could injure people if they happened to be nearby.

As for a large earthquake triggering a volcanic eruption: While that is possible, a lot of things would need to be in play. The 1959 quake, for example, didn’t trigger a volcanic eruption.

“In order for a large earthquake to trigger a volcanic eruption, you probably already need to have an eruption almost ready to happen,” Farrell said.

Regardless, Farrell said visitors shouldn’t be on high alert for a geological event of any sort.

“We like to talk about these big, grandiose things happening like big earthquakes or large volcanic eruptions, but those are highly unlikely events,” he said.

“You’re in much more danger driving to Yellowstone than you would be by any of these things happening while you’re there.”

end

It begins:  Nadler vows immediate legislation in response to the shooting spree last night in which 13 people died in the Bar-Grill in Sherman Oaks California

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

Democrat Nadler Vows “Immediate” Legislation In

Response To Gun Violence

Confirming the new Democrat-controlled House will press for major changes in US gun laws, following the latest mass shooting which took place overnight in Thousand Oaks, California, which left at least 13 people, including the shooter, dead, the incoming House Judiciary Committee Chairman, Democrat Jerry Nadler said on twitter that he will immediately “get to work on legislation that includes universal background checks to respond to the scourge of gun violence.”

He also said described the shooting as “senseless and preventable.”

(((Rep. Nadler)))

✔@RepJerryNadler

We must find a way to stop the senseless, and many times preventable killings that are robbing our country of innocent lives. In the new Congress, we will immediately get to work on legislation that includes universal background checks to respond to the scourge of gun violence.

CNN

✔@CNN

“This guy just came out of nowhere and came out with a gun and shot people”: https://cnn.it/2Du3xCO

What we know about the Thousand Oaks shooting:

– At least 12 dead, including sheriff’s deputy

– Suspected gunman also dead

– Multiple injured

Updates: https://cnn.it/2QtJDL2

View image on Twitter

The incoming Democratic Judiciary Committee chair will be busy: in addition to taking on the Republicans on gun legislation, Nadler will also be the man in charge of any investigation into Kavanaugh.

According to the Federalist, [Nadler and a friend] discussed two routes for investigating new Supreme Court Justice Kavanaugh. The first is to go after the FBI for how they handled the investigation into unsubstantiated claims he sexually assaulted women. “They didn’t even do a half-ass job,” he said. “They didn’t interview 30 witnesses who said ‘Interview me! I’ve got a lot to say!’” he said, while mimicking people waving their hands to be called on.

His other plan is to go after Kavanaugh because “there’s a real indication that Kavanaugh committed perjury.” He claimed that The Atlantic published an article about the allegations of a third woman. Then he claimed that when Kavanaugh was “asked at a committee hearing under oath when he first heard of the subject, he said, ‘When I’d heard of the Atlantic article.’ But there is an email chain apparently dating from well before that from him about ‘How can we deal with this?’” Nadler told the caller…

“The worst-case scenario — or best case depending on your point of view — you prove he committed perjury, about a terrible subject and the Judicial Conference recommends you impeach him. So the president appoints someone just as bad.”

One thing is certain: with Democrats planning all out war against Trump and a tsunami of legal challenges for decisions taken over the past two years, Nadler – whose name may not be known by most – soon will be.

end
the following is important but a little difficult to understand.  The important point is the rolling off of the Fed balance sheet is creating a shortage of dollars…something that we have indicated to you in the past few weeks. The scarcity of dollars is creating havoc for our emerging nations who are in great need of funds.  Also the banking excess reserves are needed because of new regulatory rules.  This should cause short term interest rates to rise faster than originally thought especially when the USA needs 1.9 trillion because of its deficit
a must read…
(courtesy zerohedge)

“It Will Be Quite Ugly” As Fed Ignores Looming $4 Trillion “Big Policy Mistake”

Last week we reported that after some $34 billion in Treasury and MBS maturities on October 31, the Fed’s balance sheet had shrunk the most ever in one month since the start of the Fed’s quantitative tightening, as the Fed’s holdings of Treasurys, MBS and other assets declined to “just” $4.14 trillion, down 7% from their all time highs of $4.5 trillion one year ago.

And it is this decline that is now spooking Wall Street, with a Bloomberg report citing Fixed-income traders who are “telling the Federal Reserve that it might end up making a big policy mistake.”

While most pundits have been concerned about the Fed ongoing rate hikes and resulting tightening in financial conditions, as the Fed’s balance sheet unwind has picked up, “unexpected knock-on effects” have emerged in overnight lending markets such as IOER, Fed Funds and, of course LIBOR –which just hit a new decade high – where demand for short-term cash has been on the rise again after a sharp spike earlier in the year.

The argument is that the Fed’s balance sheet shrinkage is increasingly threatening financial stability, resulting in quotes such as this one from TD Securities rates strategist Priya Misra: “The Fed is in denial. If the Fed continues to let its balance-sheet runoff continue, then reserves will begin to become scarce.

They will become even more scarce if the Fed continues unwinding its balance sheet at the current “cruise control” speed of $50BN per month. If the Fed maintains the current pace through the end of next year, its assets would fall to about $3.7 trillion from $4.1 trillion today (and a high of $4.5 trillion), resulting in even more distortions in overnight funding markets.

Which, taken on its face, is bizarre: while the Fed’s excess reserves with banks currently amount to just over $1.7 trillion, this number was just $50 billion, give or take, before the crisis.

So, as Bloomberg wirtes, it’s curious to think that at current balance-sheet levels, “the U.S. banking system could be facing a problem of not having enough cash.”

Still, there is a reason why even with trillions in reserves parked at the Fed, banks are finding themselves liquidity-constrained and it has to do with regulation. as Bloomberg explains, the argument essentially goes like this:

post-crisis rules enacted to curb risk-taking, like Dodd-Frank and Basel III, have prompted banks to use much of those same reserves — upwards of $2 trillion worth — to meet the more stringent requirements. It’s those forces that are, in effect, creating the scarcity of reserves that has banks — mainly the smaller ones at this point — scrambling for short-term dollar funding. Since the Fed started shrinking its assets, reserves have fallen by more than a half-trillion dollars, according to Fed data from Barclays.

In other words, it’s not so much the market, as regulatory requirements that are behind what is the latest funding squeeze:

“The current backdrop is one that is dominated by the regulatory landscape,” said Jonathan Cohn, the head of interest-rate trading strategy at Credit Suisse. He estimates excess high-quality liquid assets (which include reserves) at the eight U.S. globally systemically important banks have fallen by more than 15 percent since the Fed began its unwind. “Banks are in a decent position right now, but over time this will begin to weigh” on them.

One place where this argument can be seen in real time is the market for fed funds, where a rising level of stress has been observed in the past year, and specifically the IOER, or interest on excess reserves rate, which together with the Fed’s Reverse Repo Rate on the bottom, defines the corridor in which the Fed Funds rate is expected to move.

The issue is that since the start of 2018, the Fed Funds rate has drifted ever higher to the top of this range and is effectively on top of the IOER. In response, in June, the Fed tweaked IOER so that it is now slightly below the upper target. (Before, IOER and the upper band were the one and the same.) The change emerged after domestic banks doubled their share of daily demand for fed funds in the second quarter from the start of the year, according to Bank of America.

And, as noted above, since the start of the Fed’s QT, “the effective rate has started to creep higher. Last month, it even bumped up against IOER for the first time since 2009 and the rates have been in line with one another almost every day for the past couple of weeks.”

While some have linked the drift to the Fed’s balance sheet unwind and resulting reserve scarcity, the Fed disagrees.

Minutes from the Fed’s September meeting showed that officials saw new T-bill sales, rising yields and higher repo rates as the catalyst for the recent upswing. Simon Potter, head of the markets group at the New York Fed, was more emphatic, saying the rise in the fed funds rate “is not a sufficient condition for reserve scarcity.”

That said, there has been a slight shift in Potter’s language in recent months, stating in August that he sees “no evidence that we are at, or close to” reserve scarcity, and a few weeks later that he “[doesn’t] believe we’ve reached” that point. Whether this implicitly suggests we’re now potentially close to a kink point in the demand curve for reserves is undoubtedly a core uncertainty for Treasury markets.

It is also why analysts predict another tweak to IOER either this month or next, which is when traders project the Fed will raise its target rate even as many increasingly expect the Fed to soon stop shrinking its balance sheet. TD’s Misra estimates it will by December 2019, though she wouldn’t be surprised if the runoff ended sooner.

BMO’s Ian Lyngen, head of US rates, echoes this view, although he warns that any move to “taper the tapering”, or end the quantitative tightening program, would result in even more rate hikes which will become the “last tightening tool”:

We’re increasingly hearing chatter that the Fed’s balance sheet runoff could end as early as next year – a risk the market isn’t focused on at this stage. In the event that such a shift is the function of funding stresses in the very front end of the market as reserves are drained, it would be accompanied by increased conviction on the part of the Fed to hike rates – effectively the last tightening tool.

Meanwhile, as the Fed refuses to address what to many bond traders has become the potential catalyst for a “$4 trillion policy mistake”, Michael Cloherty, head of U.S. rate strategy at RBC Capital Markets, is worried.

He says the biggest risk is the Fed turns a blind eye to the pressures on bank reserves and triggers huge swings in short-term rates with its balance-sheet runoff.

“At some point, all of the reserves outstanding will be locked up by all the people who need it” to meet all the regulatory mandates, which may lead to a “scramble” for short-term cash, Cloherty said. “If the Fed keeps shrinking its balance sheet until it sees signs of stress, the question will be, “How ugly is that stress?’ I think it will be quite ugly.”

Perhaps he is right, but the bigger question is how did regulators get things so wrong that some $1.7 trillion more in bank reserves than existed before the financial crisis is now grounds for concerns about a potential liquidity scramble, and the next logical question: how long before the Fed is forced to think not only about ending quantitative tightening, but launch the next round of quantitative easing?

end

this is going to get quite ugly as we now know the mystery man in the meeting that started at 1MDB Malaysian scandal.  The mystery man in the meeting was none other that former CEO of Goldman and now its current chairman.  Already we have one conviction, Tim Lessner.  This no doubt will spread to the entire company…it may bring them down.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Blankfein Was “Mystery” Goldman Exec Present During 1MDB Meeting Noted By DOJ

Last week, the DOJ filed the first round of criminal charges related to the massive international fraud that was the 1MDB scandal.

US prosecutors alleged that more than $4.5 billion was embezzled from the sovereign wealth fund, which was set up by the government of disgraced former Prime Minister Najib Razak, eventually leading the ransacked government fund to a default on nearly $2 billion of local currency bonds, briefly denting the value of the Malaysian ringgit. Holders of those bonds are still working on a restructuring deal with the fund.

Meanwhile, former Goldman Sachs Southeast Asia Chief Tim Leissner has pleaded guilty to fraud charges and is expected to cooperate with authorities against other more-senior officials at the bank. One of his fellow bankers, Roger Ng, was arrested by Malaysian police and is expected to be extradited to the US, although as we reported this morning, Ng is fighting said extradition (for a full breakdown of the latest events, see this post).

What was perhaps even more curious about the DOJ complaint, was the reference of a “senior Goldman official” who was instrumental and involved in Goldman’s establishing of close ties with both 1MDB and the Razak government, ties which would eventually allow Goldman to issue $6 billion in three issue in bonds underwritten by Goldman which netted $600 million in fees for the bank.

And, as we added over the weekend, all of this is happening at a terrible time for Goldman” which recently underwent a leadership transition, with longtime former CEO Lloyd Blankfein handing the reins to John Solomon, who is best known for moonlighting as a DJ.

And as the breadth of the scandal – and the likelihood that the bank’s most senior employees may have looked the other way (though, to be sure, Blankfein has repeatedly denied having any knowledge of Goldman’s role) – becomes increasingly apparent, the timing of Blankfein’s exit is looking more and more suspect.

And now we now know why, because it now appears that our veiled reference that Blankfein may have been the unnamed senior Goldman official, was in fact accurate.

In a new report, Bloomberg writes that years before Goldman Sachs arranged bond deals now at the heart of globe-spanning corruption probes, “the firm’s then-CEO Lloyd Blankfein personally helped forge ties with Malaysia and its new sovereign wealth fund.”

But much more importantly, Blankfein was the unidentified “mystery” high-ranking Goldman Sachs executive referenced in U.S. court documents who attended a 2009 meeting with the former Malaysian prime minister, Bloomberg’s sources said. And what’s worse, the meeting was arranged with the help of men who are now tied to the subsequent plundering of the 1MDB fund, according to U.S. court documents unsealed last week.

The meeting at the Four Seasons hotel in New York was set up and attended by two key figures in the 1MDB scandal, Malaysian businessman Jho Low and former Goldman partner Tim Leissner, one person with direct knowledge of the matter said, asking not to be identified as the information isn’t public.

It was this high level gathering – which was also attended by then Goldman CEO Blankfein – that laid the groundwork for a relationship that would prove extremely profitable for the investment bank.

While a Goldman spokesman refused to comment to Bloomberg on Blankfein’s behalf, the bank has repeatedly said it knew nothing about any corruption, and simply believed proceeds of debt sales it underwrote “were for development projects” and then threw Leissner under the bus, accusing the former Goldman partner of withholding information from the firm.

In addition to Goldman, the meeting was also attended by the now infamous Jho Low, then a largely unknown banker whose meteoric rise had managed to cultivate relationships with senior Malaysian government officials, including then-Prime Minister Najib Razak. And while Low’s lavish spending habits were New York tabloid fodder around the time of the meeting, Bloomberg adds that starting about two months before the meeting, Leissner and another Goldman banker began a years-long effort to bring Low aboard as a client, a request that compliance workers at the firm consistently denied.

Was it Blankfein’s involvement that eventually greenlighted the bank’s lucrative relationship with 1MDB and Malaysia? The DOJ is reportedly looking into precisely this. That said, there’s no indication that Blankfein was aware of the internal assessments of Low, or knew the identities of all the people present at the meeting.

The documents filed by an FBI agent in June said that evidence supports Low was present at the meeting. The agenda for the November 2009 meeting was mapped out by Low and included a “debrief” with Najib and the “1MDB boys” after Goldman executives had left, the documents show.

At the same time, the meeting offered Blankfein a chance to speak with Najib in his first year as prime minister, and Najib’s visit to New York included meetings with other business leaders and U.S. investors. A month after the gathering, Malaysia’s securities commission announced that Goldman Sachs would set up fund management and corporate finance advisory operations in the nation.

Fast forward to last week when the U.S. accused Low of teaming up with the Goldman bankers to pilfer money from 1MDB, and more importantly, Leissner pleaded guilty to conspiring to launder money and violating the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act by paying bribes. Furthermore, Goldman’s earnings from the deals have also become a sore point with the new Malaysian government, which hopes to recoup some of the money.

As for the former Goldman CEO, as noted above, Blankfein who recently retired as the bank’s chief executive but still serves as chairman, said at a conference in New York last week that he’s not aware of senior managers missing red flags in the 1MDB dealings. Instead, he said, the matter was an issue of a few employees dodging bank controls and lying about it.

Of course, it would be naive to think that Leissner was able to pull enough strings on his own, not just at the bank, but also across the US state department, to allow billions in illicit funds to flow across US borders. As for Blankfein, if the DOJ is indeed looking at the bank CEO, then perhaps it should also look at the State Department, and the Secretary of State who presided at the time many of these alleged fraudulent schemes took place.

END
As expected Trump proposes to end asylum for illegal immigrants ahead of the caravans arriving
(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump Proposes Ending Asylum For Illegal Immigrants

As was widely expected following his promises to stop crowds of illegal migrants from entering the US, President Trump on Thursday signed an order to end asylum for illegal immigrants before the caravans arrive. The order, which is expected to elicit howls of outrage from the left, will almost certainly be met with a court challenge, according to a Bloomberg report.

The Trump administration said it would prohibit people who illegally cross the U.S. border with Mexico from claiming asylum, as the president seeks to choke off migration from Latin America, Bloomberg News reports.

The change to asylum procedures was published Thursday by the Justice Department. President Donald Trump has blamed U.S. asylum rules for luring thousands of migrants a year from Central American countries. The new rule is almost certain to be challenged in courts.

According to an NBC News report published early Thursday afternoon, senior Trump administration officials expect to be sued over the “draconian” immigration order. But with Brett Kavanaugh cementing a conservative majority on the court, the administration expects that it will prevail, as even the pre-Kavanaugh split court allowed the administration some wiggle room to implement its controversial travel ban. However, some worry that Neil Gorsuch could throw a wrench in the works by opposing the proposal, as he appeared to have reservations about supporting another restrictive immigration ruling during arguments on another case earlier in the term, per the New York Times.

Immigration

In the days before Tuesday’s midterm, Trump ordered thousands of national guard troops to the US-Mexico border to offer “support” for border patrol agents and another wave of national guard troops who had been dispatched to the border earlier in the year.

 

SWAMP STORIES

It begins:  Maxine Waters vows to examine Trump ties to Deutsche bank

(courtesy zerohedge)

It Begins: Maxine Waters Vows To Examine Trump Ties To Deutsche Bank

Rep. Maxine Waters (D-CA) told Bloomberg Television on Wednesday that she will investigate President Trump’s ties to Deutsche Bank if she is elected chair of the House Financial Services Committee.

Be the Child Defender@twitsanon

Of all the investigations I’m most interested in Rep Maxine Waters’ statement that she’ll investigate Deutsche Bank for laundering Russian money. Deutsche Bank also the source for a lot of Trump’s money pool despite high risk.

President Trump’s relationship with Deutsche Bank has long been in Waters’ crosshairs – as the 80-year-old Congresswoman has made repeated calls on the German financial institution to provide documents concerning any ties that Trump might have to Russia. As the ranking minority leader on the House Financial Services Committee she has thus far only been able to sabre-rattle, however she will now be able to subpoena records connected to a President whose impeachment she has repeatedly promised constituents since his election in 2016.

Waters also told Bloomberg that she would also investigate changes made at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau under the direction of acting director Mick Mulvaney, as well as Wells Fargo – which she has urged the Federal Reserve to come down hard on in the wake of several scandals.

The CFPB has not faced much Congressional oversight since Mick Mulvaney, President Trump’s budget director and acting director of the CFPB, took over. Trump has nominated Kathy Kraninger, who worked under Mulvaney in the Office of Management and Budget, to be the next permanent director of the Bureau. If she is confirmed, which is likely since Republicans currently have a majority in the Senate and extended their gains in Tuesday’s election, any moves she and the Bureau make will likely come under increased scrutiny of Waters’ committee. –Chicago Sun Times

Waters has other plans as well:

But Waters does have a list of policy priorities; she told CNBC in July that if she became committee chair, she would address affordable housing and the conservatorship of the two government-sponsored enterprises — Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. She also pledged to “undo that harm” that Trump-cabinet member Mick Mulvaney has done at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, the agency created in the aftermath of the crisis that was tasked with policing financial services products.

Speaking to MSNBC on Tuesday, Waters also expressed strong thoughts on banking regulation and lashed out at Republicans for using the last two years to enact revisions to the post-crisis Dodd-Frank financial regulatory framework. -Yahoo!

For everything that we have tried to do to bring about some fairness and justice for these financial services companies and etcetera, we have absolutely been fought against by Republicans,” said Waters.

In a pre-midterm note, JPMorgan Chase predicted “There will be more oversight and subpoena with committees headed by Democrats.”

Virus-free. www.avast.com
Attachments area

Preview YouTube video Maxine Waters On The Historic Midterm Elections | All In | MSNBC

END

The White House finally pulls CNN’s Jim Acosta’s Media credentials.

(courtesy zerohedge)

White House Pulls CNN’s Jim Acosta’s Media

Credentials

Following the disturbing behavior in this morning’s White House press conference, when a journalist from CNN refused to hand his mic back to a White House aide…

White House spokesperson Sarah Sanders announced that CNN’s Jim Acosta has had his media credentials pulled:

“President Trump believes in a free press and expects and welcomes tough questions of him and his Administration. We will, however, never tolerate a reporter placing his hands on a young woman just trying to do her job as a White House intern… 

This conduct is absolutely unacceptable. It is also completely disrespectful to the reporter’s colleagues not to allow them an opportunity to ask a question. President Trump has given the press more access than any President in history. “

Sanders continued:

“Contrary to CNN’s assertions there is no greater demonstration of the President’s support for a free press than the event he held today.

Only they would attack the President for not supporting a free press in the midst of him taking 68 questions from 35 different reporters over the course of 1.5 hours including several from the reporter in question. 

The fact that CNN is proud of the way their employee behaved is not only disgusting, it‘s an example of their outrageous disregard for everyone, including young women, who work in this Administration.

As a result of today’s incident, the White House is suspending the hard pass of the reporter involved until further notice.”

And Acosta has just confirmed it via tweet…

“I’ve just been denied entrance to the WH. Secret Service just informed me I cannot enter the WH grounds for my 8pm hit”

Shortly after the press briefing debacle, Rawstory reports that CNN President Jeff Zucker attempted to rally the network’s reporters…

“I want you to know that we have your backs,” Zucker said a memo to employees that was obtained by The Hollywood Reporter.

“That this organization believes fiercely in the protections granted to us by the First Amendment, and we will defend them, and you, vigorously, every time.”

Although not even CNN probably expected this level of escalation. Which is why we wonder, how long before a) the rest of the press corps boycotts the White House briefings, and b) the hashtag #BringBackAcosta starts trending?

END

Trump declares war on the Democrats if they pursue investigations

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

“Two Can Play That Game” – Trump Threatens “War

Posture” If Dems Pursue Investigations

As Democrats prepare to take control of the House on Jan. 2, President Trump has a message for his political opponents who are feeling emboldened by their soon-to-be acquired subpoena power: If Dems try to use their subpoena power to launch Congressional investigations into his tax returns or Russia ties, the Trump Administration won’t cooperate with them on matters of policy.

During a raucous Wednesday press conference (the same press conference where he berated two CNN reporters), Trump again threatenedDemocrats with partisan gridlock if they try to probe him or his administration. Trump said that, since before he announced he would run, Democrats have been bombarding him with “investigation fatigue” – as he phrased it. He then threatened to adopt a “war posture” if Democrats try and come after his tax returns, or launch another investigation into his Russian ties.

Trump

He then made clear that, if they pursue an investigation, Republicans in the Senate would launch an investigation of their own into leaks of classified information by Democrats, including former FBI Director James Comey.

“They can play that game but we can play it better,” Trump promised.

He also suggested that if Democrats want to work with the administration on policy priorities like infrastructure, they should drop any plans for further investigations. Otherwise, Trump said, they should expect two years of partisan gridlock.

“They want to do things. I keep hearing about investigations – fatigue. From almost the time I announced I was going to run, they’ve been giving us this investigation fatigue. We have a thing called the United States Senate – and a lot of questionable things were done. Leaks of classified information. All you’re going to do is end up with a back-and-forth-and-back-and-forth and all of a sudden two years will go by and you won’t have done a thing.”

In a brief respite from his typically antagonistic tone toward Democrats, Trump reversed course minutes later and praised Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi over her calls for bipartisanship Tuesday night, adding that Pelosi “loves this country.” He even sarcastically offered to push Republicans to vote for her as speaker if progressive Dems make good on their campaign threats not to vote for her.

“We actually have a great relationship,” Trump said of Pelosi. “I give her a great deal of credit for what she’s done and what she’s accomplished.”

[…]

Pelosi “loves this country, and she’s a very smart woman,” Trump said, adding that he had “a very warm conversation” with her on Tuesday.

Asked how he would respond to Democratic demands that he release his tax returns, Trump repeated an oft-used line about waiting for audits to be completed.

TRT World Now

✔@TRTWorldNow

Trump warns Democrats against using their new power to investigate him after Republicans increased their seats in the Senate #Midterms2018 http://trtworld.com/americas/midterm-election-a-big-day-for-republicans-trump-21464 

In a press briefing given shortly after the president’s, Pelosi sounded undeterred, clearly stating that Democrats have investigation plans ready.

“We have a constitutional responsibility to have oversight,” Pelosi said. “This doesn’t mean we go looking for a fight.” She added that she hopes the administration will respond to requests for information voluntarily, but regarding a possible inquiry into the policy of separating families at the border, she said: “If that requires a subpoena, so be it.”

Trump used a similarly defiant tone in a tweet posted earlier on Wednesday, where he warned Democrats against “wasting Taxpayer Money” on House investigations.

Donald J. Trump

✔@realDonaldTrump

If the Democrats think they are going to waste Taxpayer Money investigating us at the House level, then we will likewise be forced to consider investigating them for all of the leaks of Classified Information, and much else, at the Senate level. Two can play that game!

But given Democrats’ eagerness to take full advantage of their subpoena power, it appears the era of bipartisan “love” that Trump had promised after Tuesday night’s election might be over before it even began.

END

Mueller has now begun to write his “final report’ on the Trump-Russia collusion case amid the Dept of Justice shakeup. The democrats are going nuts on this

(courtesy zerohedge)

Mueller Has Begun Writing “Final Report” On Trump-

Russia Amid DOJ Shakeup

One day after Attorney General Jeff Sessions was announced out at the Department of Justice, CNN reports that special counsel Robert Mueller’s team has “begun writing its final report,” according to “multiple sources.”

According to CNN, “all signs point to an investigation that is winding down.”

Rumors over Mueller’s final report comes as Democrats go into full panic mode over the appointment of Matt Whitaker – Sessions’ former right-hand man, as interim Attorney General. Whitaker will take over the Russia investigation from Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein, who signed off on a FISA surveillance warrant application and subsequent renewals for former Trump campaign aide Carter Page.

Democrats have raised concerns over how Whitaker will handle the Russia investigation, with Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) demanding Whitaker recuse himself over previous comments about the special counsel, after he said that if Mueller investigates the Trump family finances beyond anything to do with Russia, “that goes beyond the scope of the special counsel.

Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) also called for Whitaker’s recusal, stating that “Deputy Attorney General Rosenstein should be allowed to continue to oversee the investigation, unhindered.”

In a Wednesday tweet, Pelosi said: “Given his record of threats to undermine & weaken the Russia investigation, Matthew Whitaker should recuse himself from any involvement in Mueller’s investigation. Congress must take immediate action to protect the rule of law and integrity of the investigation.”

Nancy Pelosi

✔@NancyPelosi

It is impossible to read Attorney General Sessions’ firing as anything other than another blatant attempt by @realDonaldTrump to undermine & end Special Counsel Mueller’s investigation.

Nancy Pelosi

✔@NancyPelosi

Given his record of threats to undermine & weaken the Russia investigation, Matthew Whitaker should recuse himself from any involvement in Mueller’s investigation. Congress must take immediate action to protect the rule of law and integrity of the investigation. #FollowTheFacts

Stone faced

Meanwhile, questions remain over what Mueller intends to do with longtime Trump adviser Roger Stone, who has been at the center of the latest arc of the “Russiagate” saga.

As recently as a month ago, Mueller asked Trump’s lawyers to produce call and visitor logs related to Stone from Trump Tower in New York, according to a source briefed on the matter. The request at this late stage of the investigation came as something of a surprise to lawyers involved, given that the Mueller team has been focused for months on Stone and his activities before the 2016 election.

Among the questions Mueller has asked the President to provide written responses on are queries about Stone and his communications with then-candidate Trump, according to a source briefed on the matter. –CNN

Stone associate Andrew Miller, meanwhile, has questioned Mueller’s authority to lead the Russia probe – as a federal appeals court considers his request to challenge the constitutionality of Mueller’s role. Miller was held in contempt after losing his bid to block a grand jury subpoena from the special counsel, however that ruling is on hold pending the outcome of the US Court of Appeals for the DC Circuit.

Two District Court judges in Washington — one nominated by a Democrat, the other by Trump — have upheld the constitutionality of Mueller’s appointment in recent rulings. The hearing Thursday, however, is the first time an appeals court panel, made up of Judges Karen LeCraft Henderson, Judith W. Rogers and Sri Srinivasan, will review the special counsel’s authority. –WaPo

According to court filings, Miller’s legal team says that Mueller was named special counsel in violation of the Appointments Clause of the Constitution since he has broad prosecutorial authority and a lack of supervision and control over this conduct,” according to The Post.

Mueller has not provided any timeline for when he intends to complete his investigation, though we imagine “2024” would be about right, should Trump win the 2020 election.

The heat is on

Regardless of what happens to Mueller, Tuesday’s midterm election result flipping control of the House back to the Democrats means they will have the ability to expand investigations into Trump, his businesses and his associates.

On Wednesday, Rep. Maxine Waters (D-CA) told Bloomberg Television that she will investigate President Trump’s ties to Deutsche Bank if she is elected chair of the House Financial Services Committee.

Meanwhile, Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA), who will lead the House Intelligence Committee, told the Los Angeles Timeson Monday that he will revive the investigation into so-called “Russian collusion” – vowing to go after Trump’s personal business interests.

The president has sought to keep that off limits, but if that’s the leverage Russians pose that’s a real threat to our country,” said Schiff.

Schiff insisted in March that there was “more than circumstantial evidence” connecting Trump to Russia, however despite the best efforts of the US-UK-Australian intelligence community and the DOJ/FBI’s multi-year counterintelligence “sting” and now probe, no such evidence has emerged.

end

 

SWAMP STORIES COURTESY OF THE KING REPORT

and special thanks to Chris Powell of GATA for sending this down to us:

Democrat Joe Manchin retained his senate seat for West Virginia because he voted for Kavanaugh.  If the GOP picks up 5+ Senate seats, don’t be surprised if he switches to the GOP.
Maryland Governor Larry Hogan (GOP) defeated Democrat Ben Jealous. Hogan is the first Republican governor to win reelection in Maryland since 1954.
European bourses opened higher on Tuesday; but the gains disappeared quickly.  Technology and retail stocks led the retreat.  The decline in Europe pushed ESZs from an overnight high of 2746.50 just before Europe opened to a low of 2729.75 at 5:12 ET.
US stocks opened lower but quickly jumped higher.  Reports that there was higher GOP turnout and lower Democrat turnout than usual in morning voting was probably the rally catalyst.
@AP_Politics: There were reports across the U.S. about long lines and malfunctioning machines at polling places from coast-to-coast, especially in Georgia, where some voters reported waiting up to 3 hours to vote. More coveragehttps://t.co/idkCKq3EXY
After the early rally, stocks went inert until a moderate decline appeared in the early afternoon.  The decline lasted only thirty minutes.  ESZs and stocks then rallied sharply into the close.
@CNBC: Bob Pisani has a problem with the consensus on the election and the markets: “For the last two years, stocks have risen because Washington was not gridlocked. But now we’re expected to believe stocks will go up because it is gridlocked.”https://t.co/E0Twz0L2Co
@realDonaldTrump: There’s only been 5 times in the last 105 years that an incumbent President has won seats in the Senate in the off year election… The Republicans are unbelievably lucky to have him and I’m just awed at how well they’ve done… Incredible, he’s got the entire media against him, attacking him every day, and he pulls out these enormous wins.” Ben Stein…
 
@EmeraldRobinson: Odd features of the blue wave: Dems were wiped out in FL. Races Obama stumped for were lost. Races Trump stumped for were won. GOP house incumbents who were Nevertrump lost their seats… [DJT called out some losers (Love, Roskam, Faso, and Comstock) by name on Wednesday.]
 
Preliminary election data shows big-city suburban women voted in a much higher percentage than suburban men.  This is a characteristic of midterm elections – and now, Never Trumpers.
 
On Wednesday, DJT also noted that there was a historic amount (44) of GOP retirements in the House.
 
GOP voters abandoned Never Trumpers and RINOs (AKA ‘Moderate Republicans’).  Paul Ryan consistently undermined Trump and regularly criticized the President.  Similar GOP leadership elements will be purged; conservatives and Trumpers will ascend.
 
Loss of U.S. House leaves Republicans more tied to Trump than ever
Many Republicans who lost their seats were moderates from suburban-heavy districts who tried to keep some distance from Trump and his rhetoric, but lost anyway. That leaves a shrunken core dominated by conservatives from rural areas whose constituents overwhelmingly support Trump…
 
House GOP fight begins: Jordan challenges McCarthy
“Have we replaced ObamaCare yet? Have we secured the border yet? Have we reformed welfare yet? No,” he said. Jordan went on to slam current GOP leadership in the House, saying they were not willing to engage in debate with Democrats…
 
@ProfMJCleveland: Serious question for conservatives:  Had Republicans held the House what legislation would they have passed of significance? [Ryan & Co. stifled DJT, except for tax cuts.]
 
@Peoples_Pundit: The infamous “thumbs down” moment [on repealing ObamaCare] absolutely devastated GOP enthusiasm. Tracked in the 80s post-2016 and crumbled afterward… the infamous “thumbs down” moment broke apart the indy coalition that powered GOP wins in D+ Not Enough electorates.  That coalition + Trumplicans + Base = D+Who Cares?   But you cannot break a 7-year promise [McCain most public betrayal vote] and not expect them to be pissed. Democrats took the issue.
 
Mitch McConnell on Wednesday obliquely acknowledged that the GOP’s failure to reform ObamaCare (McCain’s betrayal) was a factor in the GOP losing the House.
 
@FoxNews: @senatemajldr: “There are serious problems with ObamaCare, and I think we’re going to have to obviously now try to address that on a bipartisan basis.”
 
McConnell says infrastructure, healthcare on 2019 U.S. Senate agenda
McConnell said senators would likely tackle Obamacare fixes and prescription drug prices, but that changes to Medicare and Social Security were unlikely…
 
If we were the GOP/DJT, the ObamaCare reform bill would contain tort reform.  This is necessary to lower healthcare costs and it would put Dems at odds with a core constituency – trial lawyers.
 
With the larger Senate majority, Trump will not need the two or three squishy GOP senators that he had to coddle to get his cabinet and judicial nominees confirmed.
 
Democrat socialists and leftists did well, which means the party’s move to the left will continue.
 
Except for some type of infrastructure and drug price legislation, Democrats in the House will stifle Trump’s agenda.  There will be fiscal gridlock. However, Trump gained another scapegoat, besides the Fed, for any economic weakness. 
 
What Gridlock Means for the US Economy: Goldman Sachs Explains
Healthcare was listed as a top issue for more voters than any other in exit polling, with 42% listing it as the top issue. The Democratic-majority House is likely to pass drug pricing legislation, but it could be blocked in the Senate. That said, with President Trump also publicly supportive of drug pricing changes, Senate Republicans could come under pressure to reach a compromise on the issue…
 
Trump will keep proposing legislation that Dems will ignore.  This will help Trump in 2020.  DJT is already setting up Pelosi as a 2020 foil.
 
@realDonaldTrump: In all fairness, Nancy Pelosi deserves to be chosen Speaker of the House by the Democrats. If they give her a hard time, perhaps we will add some Republican votes. She has earned this great honor! [85 Democrat House candidates pledged to NOT vote for Pelosi as Speaker of the House.]
 
This was the retribution election for Democrats.  Dems seethed for two years with bottled up outrage and hate.  They planned for vengeance at this midterm election since the night that Trump won.  It’s unlikely that a critical mass of Democrats will possess that intensity and emotion in 2020. 
 
House Dems now have a problem.  For two years, DJT hate drove many of their core constituents.  Dems said that if they regain control of the House they would impeach DJT.  This was the major inducement to get Dem voters to the polls for the Midterms.  If Democrats do not impeach DJT, a chunk of their core voters will be very upset.  If Dems impeach Trump, it will help him in 2020.
 
@Peoples_Pundit: There are at least a dozen seats Democrats would legally challenge to a recount if it was them who lost by those margins. [It won’t take much to flip the House to the GOP in 2020.]
 
@realDonaldTrump: If the Democrats think they are going to waste Taxpayer Money investigating us at the House level, then we will likewise be forced to consider investigating them for all of the leaks of Classified Information, and much else, at the Senate level. Two can play that game!
 
Big losers: Schumer’s Kavanaugh gambit, celebrity endorsers (Oprah, Swift, et al), Fox and pollsters.
 
Critics Question Fox News Calling House for Democrats with California Polls Still Open
 
@TheLastRefuge2: Current Fox News VP of political content, Bill Sammon, wrote a book including how to influence elections… It was Sammon who constructed Megyn Kelly’s questions to Trump (2015 debate) and Sammon who makes every decision about tonight. [Look up his bio]
 
USA/Today: Fox’s Sean Hannity absent from election coverage after appearing at rally with Trump
 
@kerpen: In case you missed it, the craziest thing that happened last night is that Menendez [Senator, D-NJ] celebrated his re-election with Juror #8, who was the 1 to acquit in the initial 11-1 vote to convict him of a false statements felony.
 
Deutsche Bank’s Trump Ties Will Get Scrutiny, Maxine Waters Says
end
It certainly did not take long:  Democrats demand the preservation of all materials related to Mueller and Jeff Sessions just like Hillary’s removal of 33,000 emails.
(courtesy zerohedge)

Democrats Demand “Preservation Of All Materials” Related To Mueller & Sessions

That didn’t take long…

Just 24 hours after retaking control of Congress in the Midterms,  ABC News  is reporting that four senior members – House Judiciary Committee Ranking Member Jerrold Nadler (D-NY), Intelligence Committee Ranking Member Adam Schiff (D-CA), Oversight and Government Reform Committee Ranking Member Elijah Cummings (D-MD), and Senate Judiciary Committee Ranking Member Dianne Feinstein – sent letters to top Administration officials demanding the preservation of all documents and materials relevant to the work of the Office of the Special Counsel or the firing of Attorney General Jeff Sessions.

In their letters, the Members wrote:

“Committees of the United States Congress are conducting investigations parallel to those of the Special Counsel’s office, and preservation of records is critical to ensure that we are able to do our work without interference or delay.

Committees will also be investigating Attorney General Sessions’ departure. We therefore ask that you immediately provide us with all orders, notices, and guidance regarding preservation of information related to these matters and investigations.”

The letters were sent to numerous Trump administration officials including the White House Counsel Pat Cipollone, FBI Director Chris Wray, Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats, CIA Director Gina Haspel, Deputy U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York Robert Khuzami, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, NSA Director Paul Nakasone, IRS Commissioner Charles Rettig, and Acting Attorney General Matt Whitaker.

While it is clear, judging from this request and extensive list, that Democrats intend to lift every stone in search of an obstruction of justice impeachment smoking gun, Progressive strategist Delvone Michael on Thursday said that House Democrats first move upon taking back the House shouldn’t be impeachment, saying likely Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) should strive to implement a more “measured” agenda.

“As far as investigations go, she should be extremely measured – I don’t think impeachment should be the first thing that comes – I know the mob wants that but some adults have to be adults in the room,” Michael, a senior political strategist at Working Families, told Hill.TV co-hosts Krystal Ball and Buck Sexton on “Rising.”

We suspect they will not listen, as Bret Stephens noted earlier.

I HOPE TO SEE YOU ON FRIDAY IF ALL GOES WELL