GOLD: $1312.00 UP $1.40 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Silver:   $15.68 DOWN 4 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Closing access prices:

Gold :  1306.30

 

silver: $15.57

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

For comex gold and silver:

FEBRUARY

 

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  FEB CONTRACT: 16 NOTICE(S) FOR 1600 OZ (0.049 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  9225 NOTICES FOR 922500 OZ  (28.693 TONNES)

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR FEBRUARY

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 

0 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR nil  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 535 for 2,675,000

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE $3657:DOWN $9

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $3658 down $29.

 

end

 

XXXX

JPMorgan or Goldman Sachs are taking a huge issuance (stopping) of gold at the comex.

today 9/16

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: FEBRUARY 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,309.200000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 02/12/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 02/14/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 1
661 C JP MORGAN 2
661 H JP MORGAN 7
737 C ADVANTAGE 16 5
880 H CITIGROUP 1
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 16 16
MONTH TO DATE: 9,225

 

 

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

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In silver, the total OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 2720 CONTRACTS FROM 215,205 UP TO 217,925 WITH YESTERDAY’S 3 CENT GAIN  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. TODAY WE ARRIVED CLOSER TO  AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WE NOW HAVE JUST LESS THAN 22 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER. AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:

1219 EFP’S FOR MARCH,  0 FOR APRIL, FOR MAY, 600 FOR DECEMBER AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE: OF 1819 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 1819 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 1819 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 9.095 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 3 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST SIX MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

AND NOW 2.680 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF FEBRUARY: 8295 CONTRACTS (FOR 9 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 8295 CONTRACTS) OR 41.475 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 921 CONTRACTS OR 4.608 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF FEB:  41.475 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 5.92% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:           258.94    MILLION OZ. (CORRECTED)

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ.

 

 

RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 2720 DESPITE THE 3 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX //YESTERDAY..THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD  STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1819 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

TODAY WE GAINED A STRONG SIZED: 4539 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

i.e 1819 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 2720 OI COMEX CONTRACTSAND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 3 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER  AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $15.72 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE HAD A GIGANTIC AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.095 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 157% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT FEBRUARY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 0 NOTICE(S) FOR nil OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND NOW FEB 2019:  2.680 MILLION OZ/
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT).

 

IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A TINY SIZED 87 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 476,083 WITH THE RISE IN THE COMEX GOLD PRICE/(A GAIN IN PRICE OF $2.20//YESTERDAY’S TRADING).

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A FAIR  SIZED 1819 CONTRACTS:

 

MARCH HAD AN ISSUANCE OF 0 CONTACTS  APRIL 1819 CONTRACTS, DECEMBER: 0 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 476,083. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE AN A FAIR SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1732 CONTRACTS: 87 OI CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 1819 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN: 1732 CONTRACTS OR 173,200 OZ = 5.387 TONNES. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A GAIN IN THE PRICE OF GOLD/ YESTERDAY TO THE TUNE OF $2.20.

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY, WE HAD 4052 EFP’S ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY : 44,731 CONTRACTS OR 4,473,100 OZ  OR 139.13 TONNES (9 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 4970 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE GOOD SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 9 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 139.13 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 139.13/2550 x 100% TONNES = 5.45% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN DECEMBER ALONE.***

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     659.28  TONNES  (CORRECTED)

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

 

Result: A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 87 DESPITE THE GAIN IN PRICING ($2.20) THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY) //.WE ALSO HAD A FAIR SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 1819 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 1819 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD A FAIR GAIN OF 1732 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

1819 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 87 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 5.387 TONNES). ..AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND OCCURRED WITH THE GAIN OF $2.20 IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX

 

 

we had:  16 notice(s) filed upon for 1600 oz of gold at the comex.

 

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

WITH GOLD UP $1.40 TODAY

 

THE CROOKS CONTINUE WITH THEIR ATTACK ON THE GLD

 

THEY WITHDREW ANOTHER:  2.23 TONNES OF GOLD AND THAT WILL BE USED TO RAID GOLD/

 

 

 

/GLD INVENTORY   798.89 TONNES

Inventory rests tonight: 798.89 tonnes.

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

 

SLV/

WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS  IN PRICE  TODAY:

 

ANOTHER ATTACK ON THE SLV:  A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV

A WITHDRAWAL OF 938,000 OZ AND THIS PAPER SILVER WITHDRAWAL WAS USED IN THE RAID THIS AFTERNOON.

 

 

 

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 306.935 MILLION OZ.

 

 

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 2720 CONTRACTS from 215,205 UP TO 217,925  AND MOVING CLOSER TO THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..

 

.

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 

1219 CONTRACTS FOR MARCH. 0 CONTRACTS FOR MAY., 600 FOR DECEMBER AND  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1819 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 2720 CONTRACTS TO THE 1819 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A STRONG GAIN  OF 4539  OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS.  THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 22.69 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 6.065 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ  STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY..AND NOW 2.680 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY.

 

 

RESULT: A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 3 CENT PRICING GAIN THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY.BUT WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 1819 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 49.17 POINTS OR 1.84% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 280.27 POINTS OR 1.34%  /The Nikkei closed UP 531.94 POINTS OR 2.61%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.14%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.7646 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil UP to 53.47 dollars per barrel for WTI and 62.94 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN //.

 ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 6.7646 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7723: / TRADE TALKS NOW ON/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

 

 

 

3A/NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

 

 

i)North Korea//USA

 

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

 

 

 

3 C/  CHINA

 

 

i) CHINA/USA

markets brighten with world that Xi would unexpectedly join the talk with Mnuchin and Lighthizer in Beijing.

( zerohedge)

ii)then:

China becomes furious as they accuse the USA of fabricating threats aimed at Huawei and other telecom companies

how on earth can the USA have a deal with China?

(courtesy zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

 

i)SPAIN

 

Gridlock in Spain as the budget is rejected.  New elections are expected as Spanish conservatives and pro independence Catalonians rejected the latest budget.

( zerohedge)

ii) EU
We have been bringing you details on Europe’s slow demise.  Industrial production is crapping out especially from Germany, the leader of European exports.  Generally speaking, if Germany had the “mark” instead of the Euro it would be in far worse shape as for at least the last decade it has enjoyed the use of a lower valued currency to help it in its trade.  The higher value of Euro destroyed the economies of the “club med” boys.
a must read…
( zerohedge)
iii)GERMANY
Politically Germany is in a mess as the new CDU leader totally rebukes Merkel on her disastrous immigration policy
The next election will not produce the coalition needed to carry this export nation
( Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

iv)Spain/Santander

 
Santander bank in Spain refuses to call its CoCo bonds which will infuriate shareholders as it sets up possible huge dilution if global condition continue to deteriorate as to what we are witnessing right now
( Bill Blain)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)Iran

You do not see this often:  a suicide attack inside Iran kills 20 Iranian revolutionary guards plus 20 wounded

( zerohedge)

ii)Iran/USA

This is interesting:  the New York times report on a leak that we have a secret American program at sabotaging Iranian missiles with faulty components. Sounds like the Israeli’s gave a helping hand in this one.

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

 

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

The Baltic Dry index is such a good indicator of global economic conditions.  it is simply the rate at which dry goods (not oil) is transported by ship.  When economic conditions are good, rates are higher.  It has now totally collapsed and it is now ear its worst on record at an unbelievable low of 598.

(courtesy zerohedge)

7. OIL ISSUES

 

 

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

i)VENEZUELA/USA

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)To all shareholders of major mining companies:  please write to them and ask what they are doing about price suppression
( Chris Powell/GATA)

ii)Again Maduro calls for the return of his 80 tonnes of gold form the Bank of England.  The problem is this gold is gone…leased out

( Agence France-Press/GATA))

iii)Turkish refiner is now willing to defy sanctions and process Venezuelan gold form mining operations

(courtesy Ahval News Gibralter/GATA)

iv)Venezuela hopes to create a non dollar trading bloc.  It is too late for Venezuela

(Reuters/GATA)

 

v)Italy’s Salvini threw an atom bomb at the ECB/EU by stating that people of Italy should have the gold and not the Bank of Italy. Salvini is smart and he is probably aware that the gold receivable at the Bank of Italy is worth nothing.  He wishes to jump queue and get whatever gold he can get.

( Ronan Manly/Bullionstar)

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)

 

 

MARKET TRADING

ii)Market data/

a)This is not what the Fed was looking for:  USA consumer price growth is the slowest since Sept 2016/ Powell wants a pickup in CPI past his hedonistic 2.0%

( zerohedge)

b)Graham Summers explains beautifully the pickle the uSA is in.  Powell reversed course suddenly and by doing this something sinister is hiding underneath the hood.

A good read..

(courtesy Graham Summers/Phoenix Research Capital)

 

 

 

 

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

Important:  TBAC notes that the uSA will need to bring in more financing dollars as its deficits rise. The Fed then warns that the dollar might not retain its dominance and this is something that we have been pointing out to you on several occasions.  The uSA dollar percentage of global reserves has dropped from 70% in 1999 to 63% today

 

( zerohedge)

 

iv)SWAMP STORIES

 

 

E)SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT

 

end

 

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN FELL BY AN TINY SIZED 87 CONTRACTS UP TO A LEVEL OF 476,083 WITH THE GAIN IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($2.20) IN YESTERDAY’S COMEX TRADING).FOR THREE YEARS STRAIGHT WE HAVE NOTICED THAT ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AND EFP’S NOTICES EXPONENTIALLY INCREASE AS WELL AS WE WITNESS THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST COLLAPSE. ONCE WE GET TO FIRST DAY NOTICE, THEN THE OPEN INTEREST RISES., THE REASON FOR THE COLLAPSE IN OPEN INTEREST IS THE FORCED LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS.

 

 

WE ARE NOW IN THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JANUARY..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED COMEX TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 1819 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

FOR MARCH:  0. FOR APRIL 1819, FOR DECEMBER: 0 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  1819 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:  1732 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 1819 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A SMALL SIZED 622 COMEX CONTRACTS.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:1732 contracts OR 173,200  OZ OR 5.387 TONNES.

 

We are now in the active contract month of FEBRUARY and here the open interest stands at 548 contracts, and thus undergoing a loss of 115 contracts.  We had 73 contracts stand for delivery yesterday so we LOST A CONSIDERABLE 42 contracts or 4200 additional oz will NOT stand for delivery in this very active delivery month of February as they morphed into London based forwards as well as accepting a sizable fiat bonus. The comex is out of gold!@!

 

 

 

The next non active delivery month after February is  March and here we lost 107 contracts to stand at 1563.  After March, the next big delivery month is April and here the OI FELL by 23 contracts up to 338,620 contracts.

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAD 16 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR 1600 OZ. (0.0497 tonnes)

 

 

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 2720  CONTRACTS FROM 215,205 UP TO 217.925(AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  (THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S OI COMEX GAIN  OCCURRED WITH A 3 CENT GAIN IN PRICING.

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEBRUARY AND THE  AMOUNT OF OPEN INTEREST READY TO STAND IS  1 CONTRACT, HAVING LOST 2 CONTRACTS FROM YESTERDAY.  WE HAD 0 NOTICES FILED YESTERDAY SO WE LOST 2 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 10,000 OZ WILL NOT STAND FOR DELIVERY IN THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEBRUARY.

 

.

 

 

 

THE NEXT NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH AFTER FEBRUARY IS THE VERY BIG AND ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH AND HERE THE OI FELL BY 4599 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 117,750 CONTRACTS. AFTER MARCH, APRIL REMAINS AT 57 CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 0 CONTRACTS.  AFTER APRIL, THE NEXT BIG ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IS MAY AND HERE THE OI ADVANCED BY 5055 CONTRACTS UP TO 62,594 CONTRACTS.

 

 

 

 

ON A NET BASIS WE GAINED 4539 SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AS WE OBTAINED A 2720 CONTRACT GAIN AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 1819 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  4539 CONTRACTS...AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A 3 CENT GAIN IN PRICING// YESTERDAY

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 0 notice(s) filed for nil OZ for the FEB, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY:  144,295 CONTRACTS

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  162,104  contracts

comex gold volumes are getting extremely low as players just do not want to play in this casino.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  FEB/GOLD

FEB 13 /2019.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
321.50
oz
Scotia
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

 

 

nil

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
16 notice(s)
 1600 OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
532 contracts
(53200 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
9225 notices
922,500 OZ
28.693 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entries:

 

 

total dealer deposits: NIL oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

We had 1 kilobar entries

 

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

 

total gold deposits: nil oz

we had 1 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

i) Out of Scotia: 321.50 oz  (10 kilobars)

 

 

total gold withdrawing from the customer;  321.50 oz

we had 0  adjustments…

FOR THE FEB 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 16 contract(s) of which 7 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 2 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the FEBRUARY/2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (9225) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of FEB. (548 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (16 x 100 oz per contract) equals 975,700 OZ OR 30.348 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this active month of FEBRUARY

 

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the FEB/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (9225 x 100 oz)  + {548)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (16 x 100 oz )which equals 975,700 oz standing OR 30.348 TONNES in this active delivery month of FEBRUARY.

WE LOST 42 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 4200 OZ WILL NOT STAND AT THE COMEX AS THEY MORPHED INTO A LONDON BASED FORWARD AS WELL AS ACCEPTING A FIAT BONUS. THE COMEX MUST BE VOID OF GOLD./

 

 

 

 

 

THERE ARE ONLY 23.13 TONNES OF REGISTERED COMEX GOLD AVAILABLE FOR DELIVERY AGAINST 30.348 TONNES STANDING FOR FEBRUARY

OF WHICH 28.693 TONNES OF GOLD HAVE ALREADY BEEN SERVED UPON SO FAR THIS MONTH.

 

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  743,812.931 oz or   23.13 tonnes
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,221,512.995 oz 255.72 tonnes

FOR COMPARISON FEBRUARY 2019 TO THE  FEBRUARY 2018 COMEX GOLD CONTRACT MONTH

 

 

 

ON FEB 1.2018: 20.07 TONNES OF GOLD STOOD FOR DELIVERY, BUT BY THE END OF MONTH ONLY 8.55 TONNES EVENTUALLY STOOD AS THE REST MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS.

IN THE LAST 28 MONTHS 99 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE NOV DELIVERY MONTH

FEB INITIAL standings/SILVER

FEB 13 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
75,697.380  oz
CNT

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
299,324.910
oz
Brinks
No of oz served today (contracts)
0
CONTRACT(S)
nil OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
1 contracts
5,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 535 contracts

(2,675,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil  oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

we had  1 deposits into the customer account

 

i) Into JPMorgan: nil  oz

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 150.26 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.61% of all official comex silver. (150.26 million/296 million)

 

i) Into Brinks:  299,324.910 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today: 299,324.910   oz

 

we had 1 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

i) Out of  CNT: 75,697.380 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals: 75,697.380    oz

 

we had 2 adjustment..and both of these are probable settlements;

i) Out of CNT:  813,896.684 oz was adjusted out of the dealer and this landed into the customer account of CNT

ii) Out of Brinks;  14,607.87 oz was adjusted out of the dealer and this landed into the customer account of Brinks

 

 

 

 

 

total dealer silver:  87.807 million

total dealer + customer silver:  296.956 million oz

 

 

 

 

The total number of notices filed today for the FEBRUARY 2019. contract month is represented by 0 contract(s) FOR  nil  oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in FEB., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 535 x 5,000 oz = 2,675,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of FEB. (1) and the number of notices served upon today (0x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the FEBRUARY/2019 contract month: 535(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of FEB( 1) -number of notices served upon today (0)x 5000 oz equals 2,680,000 oz of silver standing for the FEBRUARY contract month.  This is a strong number of oz standing for an off delivery month.

WE LOST 2 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 10,000 OZ WILL NOT STAND AT THE COMEX AS THESE GUYS MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AND ALSO THEY ACCEPTED A FIAT BONUS FOR THEIR EFFORTS..

FOR COMPARISON SILVER COMEX CONTRACT MONTH  FEB 2018 VS FEB 2019

 

 

 

 

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FEB 1/2018 CONTRACT MONTH WE HAD 670,000 OZ STAND FOR DELIVERY.  AT THE MONTH’S CONCLUSION WE HAD 2.035 MILLION OZ STAND AS WE WITNESSED QUEUE JUMPING ON A REGULAR BASIS AT THE SILVER COMEX.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

TODAY’S SILVER VOLUME:  77,158 CONTRACTS

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 70,194 CONTRACTS… 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 70,194 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 350 million OZ  50.1% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -3.63% (FEB 13/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -.64% to NAV (FEB 13 /2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -3.63%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 13.27/TRADING 12.82/DISCOUNT 3.41

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

FEB 13:/WITH GOLD UP $1.40 TODAY: ANOTHER PAPER RAID BY OUR CROOKED BANKERS AS THEY WITHDREW ANOTHER 2.23 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. INVENTORY RESTS AT 798.89 TONNES

FEB 12: WITH GOLD UP $2.20 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 802.12 TONNES

FEB 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.25 TODAY: ANOTHER PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES OF GOLD AND THIS GOLD WAS USED TO WHACK OUR PRECIOUS METAL TODAY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 802.12 TONNES

FEB 8/WITH GOLD UP $4.00/THE CROOKS WITHDREW ANOTHER HUGE 6.59 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD AND THIS GOLD WAS USED TO CONTAIN THE PRICE OF GOLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 803.29 TONNES

FEB 7/WITH GOLD UP 35 CENTS/ANOTHER PAPER GOLD WITHDRAWAL OF 2.06 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 809.76 TONNES

FEB 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.85 TODAY: A STRONG PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.37 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 811.82 TONNES

FEB 5/WITH GOLD UP $.30 TODAY: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 4.11 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 813.29 TONNES

FEB 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.65: TWO TRANSACTIONS: i)A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 8.37 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD WAS REMOVED FROM THE GLD AND THEN ii) a A STRONG DEPOSIT OF 2.00 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 817.40 TONNES

FEB 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 823.87 TONNES

JAN 31/WITH GOLD UP $9.80 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 823.87 TONNES

JAN 30/WITH GOLD UP $.65: A HUGE HUGE MONSTROUS ADDITION OF 8.23 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD ENTERED THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 823.87..SO FAR IN JANUARY: 28.56 TONNES HAVE BEEN ADDED

JAN 29/WITH GOLD UP $6.15/A HUGE ADDITION OF 5.88 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 815.64 TONNES

JAN 28/WITH GOLD UP $5.30 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 809.76 TONNES

JAN 25/WITH GOLD UP $17.90: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 809.76 TONNES

jAN 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.70?: NO CHANGES AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 809.76 TONNES

JAN 23/WITH GOLD UP 50 CENTS: NO CHANGES AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 809.76 TONNES

JAN 22/WITH GOLD UP A TINY $.85 A MASSIVE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 12.06 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE FRAUDULENT GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 809.76 TONNES

JAN 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.65: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 797.71

JAN 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.10: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 797.71

JAN 16/WITH GOLD UP $5.40 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 797.71

JAN 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.65: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 797.71 TONNES

JAN 14/WITH GOLD UP $1.60/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 797.71 TONNES

JAN 11/WITH GOLD UP $2.30 TODAY ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES OF GOLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 797.71 TONNES

JAN 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.00/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 799.18 TONNES

JAN 9/WITH SILVER UP $6.00/ TWO TRANSACTIONS: a) A TINY WITHDRAWAL OF .25 TONNES TO PAY FOR FEES ETC b) A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.65 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY./INVENTORY RESTS AT 799.18 TONNES

JAN 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.70 TODAY, A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES AND THIS GOLD WAS USED IN THE RAID/INVENTORY RESTS AT 796.78 TONNES

JAN 7/WITH GOLD UP $4.45 TODAY: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.94 TONNES OF GOLD ENTERED THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 798.25 TONNES

JAN 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.65 TODAY; NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 795.31 TONNES

JAN 3/2019/WITH GOLD UP $10.65 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 795.31 TONNES

JAN 2.2019/WITH GOLD UP $3.35 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 7.64 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 795.31 TONNES

DEC 31/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.20 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 787.67 TONNES

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

FEB 13/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 798.89 tonnes

*IN LAST 545 TRADING DAYS: 135.16 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 445 TRADING DAYS: A NET 24.83 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

FEB 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 938,000 OZ FROM THE SLV./INVENTORY RESTS AT 306.935 MILLION OZ/

FEB 12 WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY:  NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT TH SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 307.873 MILLION OZ/

FEB 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY:A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY; A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.126 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 307.873 MILLION OZ/

FEB 8/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS: ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 657,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.999  MILLION OZ/

FEB 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 1 CENT TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.656 MILLION OZ/

FEB 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY; A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 938,000  OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.656 MILLION OZ/

FEB 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS; NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 310.594 MILLION OZ.

FEB 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 129,000 OZ TO PAY FOR FEES/.INVENTORY RESTS AT 310.594 MILLION OZ/

FEB 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY  RESTS AT 310.723 MILLION OZ/

JAN 31/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER BIG DEPOSIT OF 1.126 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 310.723 MILLION OZ/

JAN 30/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 938,000 INTO THE SLV INVENTORY./INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.597 MILLION OZ.

JAN 29/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY/A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.408 MILLION OZ  IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.659 MILLION OZ/

JAN 28/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 307.251 MILLION OZ/

JAN 25/WITH SILVER UP 40 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 307.251 MILLION OZ/

JAN 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY

JAN 23/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS: A HUGE LOSS OF 938,000 FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 307.251 MILLION OZ/

JAN 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.179 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/SLV IS A FRAUDULENT VEHICLE/INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.189 MILLION OZ/

JAN 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY/NO DOUBT THE MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF PAPER SILVER WAS USED IN THE RAID TODAY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 307.110

JAN 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY:ANOTHER BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.895 MILLION OZ./INVENTORY RESTS AT 307.110 MILLION OZ/

JAN 16/WITH SILVER FLAT TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV

A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.158 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.005 MILLION OZ/

JAN 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 469,000 OZ FROM ITS INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 313.163 MILLION OZ/

JAN 14/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 313.632 MILLION OZ/

JAN 11/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 313.632 MILLION OZ/

JAN 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 313.632 MILLION OZ/

JAN 9/WITH SILVER  UP 4 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.126 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY LOWERS TO 313.632 MILLION OZ/???

JAN 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.758 MILLION OZ

JAN 7/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.347 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.758 MILLION OZ/

JAN 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.105 MILLION OZ

JAN 3/2019/WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS A SMALL CHANGE TODAY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 118,000 OZ TO PAY FOR FEES:  INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.105 MILLION OZ/

JAN 2/2019/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.233 MILLION OZ/

DEC 31/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.233 MILLION OZ/

 

 

FEB 13/2019:

 

Inventory 306.935 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

THE RISE IN LIBOR IS CREATING A SCARCITY OF DOLLARS BECAUSE FOREIGN EXCHANGE SWAPS (COSTS) ARE SIMPLY PROHIBITIVE

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.22/ and libor 6 month duration 2.74

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .52

 

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.55%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.92

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.37

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

end
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

Gold Prices In Pounds and Euros Gain More as Economic Growth Falters in the UK and EU

– Gold prices in pounds and euros as economic growth falters in UK and EU
– Euro & pound gold tests multi year resistance; likely to surpass due to strong demand  
– Improved risk appetite sees stocks rise which may be hampering stronger gains for gold
– Investors concerns regarding trade wars, Brexit, Italexit, the economic outlook and looser monetary policies is seeing robust demand for gold bullion 

Gold in GBP – 10 Years

Gold prices broke over €1,160 (EUR) and £1,020 (GBP) per ounce mark yesterday following more poor economic data out of the EU and the UK.  The British pound has again come under selling pressure due to Brexit uncertainty and the very poor UK economic data has made matters worse. 

The UK economy plunged into reverse in December, with a broad based slump in economic output which completed the weakest year for growth since 2012. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said gross domestic product (GDP) contracted by 0.4% from the previous month, driven by a fall in spending on the high street over the key festive shopping period.

Yesterday, gold denominated in euros climbed to the highest since early May, 2017, at €1,164.65 euros per ounce. Numbers from EU countries have consistently disappointed and the Euro-area growth forecast is for it to slow to just above 1% this year. The EU and the UK are two of a growing number of “weak links” in the global economy.

UK and Irish demand for gold remains robust due to the political and economic uncertainty across Europe. Uncertainty regarding Brexit, Italy and the outlook for the EU is fueling demand.

In dollars, gold rose to its highest since late April after the Fed kept interest rates steady. The likelihood of looser monetary policies by the Fed and other central banks in the coming months will support gold and should lead to higher prices.

 

 

News and Commentary

Gold firms as dollar eases on U.S.-China trade hopes (Reuters.com)

Gold settles higher with dollar’s win streak in jeopardy (MarketWatch.com)

Lawmakers reach tentative deal to avert shutdown (Reuters.com)

IMF warns of global economic ‘storm’ as growth undershoots (RTE.ie)

Russia may eliminate gold tax to boost investment (RT.com)

Deutsche Bank to pay C$5.5 million to settle Canadian gold and silver market-rigging cases (SotosClassActions.com)

Canadian class action against gold and silver market rigging continues against other banks (Gata.org)

Gold’s role is likely to increase as cash fades (Gold.org)

Governments saved the rich and screwed the young (DAvidMCWilliams.ie)

Only a higher gold price can finance the necessary environmental remediation (Gata.org)

We’re Overdue For A Sell-Everything/No-Fed-Rescue Recession (SeekingAlpha.com)

Central banks are buying the most gold since the end of World War II — here’s why | (BusinessInsider.com)

Listen on iTunes,Blubrry & SoundCloud  & watch on YouTube above

Gold Prices (LBMA PM)

12 Feb: USD 1,311.60, GBP 1021.21 & EUR 1,163.00 per ounce
11 Feb: USD 1,306.40, GBP 1014.81 & EUR 1,157.08 per ounce
08 Feb: USD 1,311.10, GBP 1012.04 & EUR 1,156.65 per ounce
07 Feb: USD 1,310.00, GBP 1009.49 & EUR 1,154.11 per ounce
06 Feb: USD 1,313.35, GBP 1013.51 & EUR 1,152.86 per ounce
05 Feb: USD 1,314.00, GBP 1009.15 & EUR 1,150.67 per ounce
04 Feb: USD 1,311.00, GBP 1004.36 & EUR 1,145.55 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

12 Feb: USD 15.81, GBP 12.30 & EUR 14.01 per ounce
11 Feb: USD 15.70, GBP 12.16 & EUR 13.88 per ounce
08 Feb: USD 15.78, GBP 12.18 & EUR 13.92 per ounce
07 Feb: USD 15.71, GBP 12.20 & EUR 13.87 per ounce
06 Feb: USD 15.73, GBP 12.15 & EUR 13.82 per ounce
05 Feb: USD 15.86, GBP 12.19 & EUR 13.89 per ounce
04 Feb: USD 15.74, GBP 12.05 & EUR 13.75 per ounce

Recent Market Updates

– Irish Investors Storing Their Gold Bullion In Ireland
– Large Gold Bullion Shipment Moves From London to Dublin Gold Vaults As Brexit Concerns Deepen
– Store Gold Bullion In Safest Ways – Learning from Tragic Venezuela Today
– The Vital Importance of Gold As A Strategic Asset In 2019
– ITALEXIT: Italy’s Debt Crisis Will “Rock EU To Its Foundations” – Banking Crisis and Euro Exit Are Likely
– “Right” Trump and “Left” Ocasio-Cortez Will Join Forces And Debase The Dollar
– 7 Financial Truths In An Uncertain 2019
– Central Banks Buy More Gold In 2018 Than Any Year Since 1967
– Gold Breaks Out of Range After Dovish Fed – Further 1% Gain to $1,321/oz
– U.S.-China War May Be “Just A Shot Away”
– Buy Bitcoin or Gold? Bitcoin Buyers Investing In Gold In 2019
– Gold Consolidates Above $1,300 After 1.2% Gain Last Week
– Gold Bullion Will Protect From Politicians, Brexit and Increasing Market Volatility In 2019

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director
GATA STORIES AS IT RELATES TO PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER
To all shareholders of major mining companies:  please write to them and ask what they are doing about price suppression
(courtesy Chris Powell/GATA)

Ask your mining companies what they’re doing about price suppression

 Section: 

1:27p ET Tuesday, February 12, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

GATA’s old friend B.L. has forwarded the text of an excellent letter he has e-mailed to a monetary metals mining company in which he long has been invested, asking whether the company will ever respond to the growing number of disclosures of manipulation of the gold and silver markets.

The letter easily could be adapted by any monetary metals mining company investor for e-mailing to company executives or the company’s investor relations officer. So an edited version of it is appended.

If you are invested in a gold or silver mining company, please consider prodding it to confront the price-suppression issue. The failure of the industry to defend itself is a decisive factor in favor of price suppression, along with the complicity of mainstream financial news organizations.

If you do send such a letter, please let your secretary/treasurer know if you get a reply or don’t get one. Maybe together we can begin to hold this timid industry to account.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Dear ——–:

I am a longtime investor in your company, holding XXXX‎ shares of common stock. Who wouldn’t stand by a debt-free North American miner with steady production, proven reserves, and a willingness to grow?

Even so, I have had to persevere through an agonizing seven-year drop in the company’s share price, which is only 20 percent of what it was a few years ago. I’m certain of the cause: relentless manipulation of precious metals prices and official disinformation by grossly-indebted Western nations like my own.

So I would appreciate hearing your thoughts about this recent Canadian court settlement, which promises similar cases to come:

http://www.gata.org/node/18860

Specifically, what can a healthy, growth-oriented firm like ours do to help the mining industry break the bonds of government control so that a genuinely free market can re-emerge and thrive?

Sincerely,

XXXXXXX

END

end

Again Maduro calls for the return of his 80 tonnes of gold form the Bank of England.  The problem is this gold is gone…leased out

(courtesy Agence France-Press/GATA))

Maduro calls for return of Venezuela’s gold from Bank of England

 Section: 

From Agence France-Presse, Paris
via Yahoo News, Sunnyvale, California
Tuesday, February 12, 2019

CARACAS, Venezuela — Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has called on Britain to return “more than 80 tons of gold” reserves deposited in London instead of sending humanitarian aid, in an interview with the BBC.

Venezuela is in the midst of an economic crisis as millions of people face shortages of basic necessities such as food and medicines.

But Maduro refuses to allow in aid sent by the United States to alleviate the crisis.

… 

The socialist leader told the BBC, according to a transcript made public today, that his country may have gold reserves weighing 80 tons or more deposited at the Bank of England.

Maduro, who faces a challenge to his authority back home from opposition leader Juan Guaido, said the gold is “legally Venezuela’s — it belongs to the Central Bank of Venezuela.”

Maduro says the US has frozen $10 billion in Venezuelan accounts through its sanctions. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/maduro-calls-return-venezuelas-uk-deposited-g…

* * *

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16

END

Turkish refiner is now willing to defy sanctions and process Venezuelan gold form mining operations

(courtesy Ahval News Gibralter/GATA)

Maduro ally Erdogan says Turkish town will process Venezuelan gold

 Section: 

From Ahval News, Gibraltar
Tuesday, February 12, 2019

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Turkey will make a small Anatolian town the centre for processing Venezuelan gold in what appeared to be a further challenge to U.S. policy toward the government of President Nicolas Maduro.

“We will take Corum’s gold trade to the next level,” Erdogan, a close political ally of the embattled Maduro, told a large crowd of supporters in the town in televised comments today. Corum lies some 600 kilometres east of Istanbul. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://ahvalnews.com/turkey-venezuela/maduro-ally-erdogan-says-turkish-…

END

Venezuela hopes to create a non dollar trading bloc.  It is too late for Venezuela

(Reuters/GATA)

Venezuela hopes to create non-dollar trading bloc

 Section: 

By Nidhi Verma and Promit Mukherjee
Reuters
Tuesday, February 12, 2019

NEW DELHI, India — Venezuela hopes to create a trade bloc consisting of China, India, and Russia to help the South American country settle oil payments in currencies other than the dollar, its oil minister said today.

The strife-torn country is looking for alternative payment methods to keep oil flowing to India, a crucial export market, especially after the United States imposed sanctions curbing the OPEC member’s crude exports to the United States.

“We all can build one economy and that economy does not necessarily have to be within the dollar economy,” Manuel Quevedo said, referring to China, Russia, and India. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-india-oil-venezuela/venezuela-hopes-t…

END

Italy’s Salvini threw an atom bomb at the ECB/EU by stating that people of Italy should have the gold and not the Bank of Italy. Salvini is smart and he is probably aware that the gold receivable at the Bank of Italy is worth nothing.  He wishes to jump queue and get whatever gold he can get.

(courtesy Ronan Manly/Bullionstar)

Ronan Manly: Italy’s gold enters the political fray, but who really owns it?

 Section: 

9:15p ET Tuesday, February 12, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

If the government of Italy wants to claim ownership of the national gold reserve now controlled by the country’s central bank, or even to sell some of it, Bullion Star gold researcher Ronan Manly writes today, the government should inquire into how much of the gold, if any, actually exists and where it resides, since no one from Italy seems to have seen it in a long time.

Manly’s commentary is headlined “Italy’s Gold Enters the Political Fray, But Who Really Owns It?” and it’s posted at Bullion Star here:

https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/ronan-manly/italys-gold-enters-the-pol…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

You cannot change centuries of culture:  Indian brides want gold and not rupees

(Reuters/GATA)

Indian brides still want gold, not rupees

 Section: 

By Krishna N. Das
Reuters
Thursday, February 7, 2019

NEW DELHI, India — An Indian state will give gold worth about $530 to every bride from a poor family, the latest budget giveaway ahead of a general election that must be held by May.

The northeastern state of Assam is run by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which is facing a battle for re-election because of low farm incomes and a lack of jobs that have turned off some of those who backed it in the last polls, in 2014. …

The tea-growing state’s finance minister, Himanta Biswa Sarma, allocated 3 billion rupees ($42 million) for the next fiscal year, from April 1, for the gold program. That would buy 875 kilograms of gold, enough for about 80,000 brides.

“A customary ritual that has been part of Assamese society for centuries is to gift a set of gold ornaments to one’s daughter as a blessing as she leaves her father’s home to start a new life,” Sarma said in his budget speech on Wednesday.

He said the program should stop families falling into debt to pay for daughters’ weddings. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-india-election-handouts/as-good-as-go…

end




iii) Other Physical stories
As I pointed out to you during the past few days, Salvini is a very smart cookie and he understands gold.  He has no intention of selling any gold…
Dennis Gartman:

“GOLD RESERVES AMONGST THE SIX LARGEST GOLD HOLDING COUNTRIES: Given the “concerns” raised by the Italians in recent days we thought this “Chart”… courtesy of US Global Investors… is worthy of including here this morning. Note Italy’s position as #3; also note how large is gold’s position as a % of total reserves for China and Russia.

Finally concerning gold we begin by noting that the concerns raised by the comments from Mr. Salvini, the Deputy Prime Minister of Italy and the leader of The League… the former Lega Nord… who said that it is his intention to shutter in the central bank there and to take control of the Bank’s gold reserves thus raising fears that the government might sell those reserves into the global gold market have been “put to bed’ with The League issuing a statement today that it has absolutely no intention of selling even “a gram” of its gold. Those fears kept gold from rising yesterday even as the EUR strengthened and normally an increase in the latter has, for the past year or more, been perfectly coextensive with an increase in gold’s price. Hence, we suspect that as this news is disseminated gold will find a bid… in dollar and in EUR terms. Certainly it should.”

and

and now Reuters:

Italy govt won’t sell “a gram” of gold reserves-League lawmaker

ROME, Feb 13 (Reuters) – The Italian government has no intention to sell the Bank of Italy’s gold reserves to plug budget holes, a prominent lawmaker of the ruling League party said on Wednesday.

“We do not want to sell a gram (of gold),” Claudio Borghi, chairman of the Budget Commission in the Lower house and League’s economics spokesman said in a interview with state-owned television RAI.

The League has drafted a law proposal which would eventually allow the government to sell the country’s gold reserves through a change to the constitution.

Borghi has already tabled a bill intended to establish that the gold is the property of the state rather than of the Bank of Italy, a point which is disputed in Italy.

-END-

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

 

Your early WEDNESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED/ LAST AT: 6.7646/

 

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.7723   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 49.17 POINTS OR 1.84% /

 

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 326.26 POINTS OR 1.16%

 

 

2. Nikkei closed  UP 280.27 POINTS OR 1.34%

 

 

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED GREEN 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/USA dollar index FALLS TO 96.84/Euro RISES TO 1.1304

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO. –.01/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 110.42/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 53.47 and Brent: 62.94

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE  UP   /OFF- SHORE:UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO +.13%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 2.80% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 1.23%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 2.67: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 3.91

3k Gold at $1309.80 silver at:15.68   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 10/100 in roubles/dollar) 65.76

3m oil into the 53 dollar handle for WTI and 62 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 110.76 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 1.0059 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1371 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to +0.13%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.69% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 3.02%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.2530

 

 

S&P To Open Above 200DMA For First Time Since December On Trade Talk Euphoria

Global markets and US equity futures are higher for the third day in a row, driven by the familiar, binary trade talk “optimism on, optimism off” news cycle…

with optimism prevailing after President Trump signaled a more conciliatory signal toward China that he could let a March 1 deadline for a trade agreement with China “slide” if both sides are near an agreement, fueling hopes of a breakthrough in the trade war when talks get underway later in the week.  As Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer prepared for talks in Beijing on Thursday and Friday to hammer out a trade deal, markets cheered the signal that there could be an extension to a tariff truce.

“Markets have interpreted the fragments of information emanating from the trade talks positively, with risk assets starting to recoup recent losses,” said Nema Ramkhelawan-Bhana, an economist at FirstRand Bank Ltd. in Johannesburg. “Let’s hope that the positivity imbued in risk assets is not based on false optimism, especially as concerns over slowing global growth continue to mount.”

Optimism got a further boost following a SCMP report that China’s president Xi is expected to join trade talks with the US delegation in Beijing in a sign of further good will, if little else. Bulls also felt empowered following apparent progress over border wall funding negotiations, which have decreased the probability of a government shutdown this Friday.

“There’s still a level of uncertainty there but at least the rhetoric does not show he is digging his heels in, so the market has quite rightly taken it as a positive,” said Justin Onuekwusi, fund manager at Legal & General Investment Management. “But of course the key thing is he can change his mind.”

As a result, it’s an almost uniform sea of green this morning, a deja vu repeat of yesterday, and the trend will likely continue until Trump tweets something “provocative”, or until – once again – trade talks conclude with nothing definitive being decided.

Predictably, Asian stocks rose, the MSCI index of emerging-market equities headed for a one-week, and China’s blue-chip CSI 300 rose around 2% to a four-month high overnight, with IT shares leading gains. The Shanghai Composite surged 1.8%, the most in five weeks.

European stocks followed Asia higher, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index climbing for a third day as companies including beer maker Heineken and chemicals producer Akzo Nobel delivered upbeat earnings, while futures on the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow Jones rose. Of note: the S&P is expected to open above a key resistance line, its 200 Day Moving Average, for the first time since the start of December.

Optimism over China-US trade talks continues to be supportive for the yuan, said Ken Cheung, senior Asian FX strategist at Mizuho Bank. While analysts see an agreement on no additional tariffs sending the yuan on a sustained rally, they have also sounded caution that the Chinese currency could weaken to 7 per U.S. dollar in the event of a breakdown in the ongoing trade talks.

Emerging market stocks, which were hurt last year by a strong dollar, climbed 0.4 percent. BAML on Tuesday said investors saw emerging markets as the “most crowded” trade, for the first time ever.

As investors went back into risky assets they sold safe-haven government bonds, driving yields up. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield hit a one-week high at 2.700 percent before fading lower while the curve was largely unchanged. Spanish 5-year bond yields hit a two-week high in early trading ahead of a possible snap election call. Ongoing buoyant risk sentiment and relatively solid 3-yr and 7-yr auctions lifted BTP futures, with Italy/Germany 10-yr spread tightening for a third straight day to ~268bps.

The Federal Reserve will chart plans to stop letting its bond holdings roll off “at coming meetings,” Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said on Tuesday, signaling another major policy shift for the Fed after pausing interest rate hikes.

Mester’s comments follow on quite clearly from what Powell said at the recent press conference, which was already quite a dovish shift which the market wasn’t expecting,” said Mohammed Kazmi, portfolio manager at UBP in Geneva. “Everyone wants to catch this rally because they know at some point it will fade, there will have to be some sort of adjustment later this year because this is pretty much as dovish as [the Fed] can get without moving to a rate cut which would only come in a recession scenario,” he added.

The January CPI report in the US due this afternoon is the data highlight of the week. The consensus expects a +0.2% mom core reading although base effects are expected to result in a small pullback in the annual rate to +2.1% yoy. That said, the seasonal revisions this week resulted in a slightly lower January 2018 reading which therefore makes for a lower hurdle to keeping the year-on-year rate near recent levels. DB economists highlight that the December print was boosted by outsized gains in a few specific categories so it wouldn’t be a great surprise to see some payback. Another interesting point is that January prints have tended to be higher than in other months, suggesting some residual seasonality. Over the past five years, January prints have averaged about 5bps higher than the prints in the other months of the year, though the recent methodological revisions are supposed to reduce this discrepancy by around half. So a bit more uncertainty than usual in the numbers today.

In FX, the dollar reversed its Asia-session decline on further signs of easing in U.S.-China trade tensions, while the New Zealand dollar and the Swedish krona rallied as policy makers sounded less dovish than expected. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index advanced as early London flows send the euro to day lows, while the pound steadies after dipping on softer U.K. inflation. The euro edged lower, reversing an earlier gain, after a report showed industrial production across the 19-nation region is falling at the fastest pace since the financial crisis.

Sweden’s krona gained after the Riksbank dropped its currency-intervention mandate. The British pound was steady after U.K. inflation fell below the Bank of England’s 2 percent target for the first time in two years.  New Zealand’s dollar rallied after the central bank played down talk of an interest-rate cut; kiwi gains as much as 1.7% and New Zealand bonds slump after central bank Governor Adrian Orr said the odds for a rate cut haven’t increased, defying speculation it would follow the Fed and RBA in turning more dovish.  Leveraged and macro funds scrambled to cover kiwi shorts as spot surged through buy-stops above 0.6780, traders said.

Elsewhere, oil added to its rebound from a two-week low after Saudi Arabia pledged to deepen output cuts. WTI (+1.2%) and Brent (+1.5%) are holding onto most of yesterday’s Saudi-induced gains with prices underpinned after the API crude inventories printed an unexpected drawdown (-0.998mln vs. Exp. +2.700mln). The session also saw the release of the IEA monthly report which deviated slightly from the EIA STEO published yesterday. The IEA maintained 2019 global oil demand (compared to EIA’s modest downgrade), whilst raising non-OPEC supply growth (in-fitting with the OPEC and EIA reports) and cutting OPEC crude demand. Little sustained reaction was seen across the energy benchmarks post-release. On a more optimistic note, Goldman Sachs continues to expect further upside for Brent crude prices, citing resilient demand growth topping low expectations, as well as large OPEC supply cuts. Finally, traders will be eyeing the release of the weekly DoE’s later today with focus on US production, as usual.

Gold prices are marginally firmer on the day as the pullback in the DXY’s yearly highs helped the yellow metal nurse some of the prior day’s losses. Furthermore, CFTC data show that money managers have cut their bullish gold bets over 6k net long positions to just under 44k.

Expected data include mortgage applications and inflation. Dish, Hilton, AIG, and Cisco are among companies reporting earnings

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 2,749.00
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.3% to 363.93
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.3% to 363.93
  • German 10Y yield fell 0.7 bps to 0.125%
  • Euro down 0.01% to $1.1325
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 5.5 bps to 2.484%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 0.9 bps to 1.248%
  • German 10Y yield fell 0.7 bps to 0.125%
  • Euro down 0.01% to $1.1325
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 5.5 bps to 2.484%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 0.9 bps to 1.248%
  • Brent futures up 1.4% to $63.32/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.2% to $1,312.93
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.1% to 96.79

Top Overnight Headlines from BBG

  • U.S. President Donald Trump is eyeing a path to avoid another government shutdown where he would reluctantly accept the congressional border-security deal and attempt to tap other funds for his wall with Mexico, said a person who talked to the president Tuesday and asked not to be identified
  • U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May and the EU are heading for a high-stakes, last-minute gamble that will decide whether the U.K. leaves the bloc with or without a deal, people familiar with both sides said; However, May’s strategy may face a renewed threat in Britain’s parliament. The Conservative pro-Brexit European Research Group is still deciding whether to abstain or vote against the government’s motion Thursday, the BBC said
  • The Federal Reserve’s dovish shift is beginning to diminish the dollar’s appeal for currency speculators. A Citigroup Inc. index has dropped below zero for the first time since March 2018, indicating currency funds are holding net short positions on the U.S. currency
  • Euro-area industrial production fell more than twice as much as forecast in December, raising further questions over the state of the bloc’s economy. The 0.9% month-on-month drop — more than twice the 0.4% forecast — was driven by declines in capital and non-durable consumer goods production

Asian equity markets traded mostly higher with global sentiment underpinned as US government shutdown fears abated and amid increasing hopes for a US-China trade breakthrough after the senior US delegation arrived in Beijing ahead of schedule. Furthermore, US President Trump has also kept the door open for an extension to the March 1st tariff deadline if a deal was close. ASX 200 (-0.3%) and Nikkei 225 (+1.4%) gained from the open although the former was later dragged lower by weakness in financials and as focus turned to earnings, while a weaker currency continued to fuel the dominance of the Japanese benchmark. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (+1.2%) and Shanghai Comp. (+1.8%) were positive with participants encouraged by the early arrival of US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and US Representative Lighthizer to Beijing which some suggested signalled a willingness to reach a deal, while source reports later noted that Chinese President Xi is scheduled to meet with the US delegation on Friday. Finally, 10yr JGBs traded choppy in which they initially tracked the downside in T-notes and with demand dampened by the risk appetite, although prices then recovered as investors returned from the Tokyo break despite mixed 5yr auction results.

Top Asian News

  • China’s Yuan Nears a Critical Juncture as Trade Talks Loom
  • Pig Farmers Are Big Winners in China’s Silicon Valley
  • Greenland Is Said to Buy China Minsheng’s Prime Shanghai Land

Major European indices are broadly in the green [Euro Stoxx 50 +0.2%], albeit off highs, as risk-appetite seen at the open somewhat waned ahead of US-China trade talks in Beijing. The materials sector remain the outperformer, while other sectors are predominantly in the green, although there is some slight underperformance in utility names. At the top of the Stoxx 600 are Ingenico (+9.2%) who beat on their FY revenue, with the Co. targeting organic growth of 4-6% for 2019. Alongside Swedish Match (+7.1%) after their Q4 sales increased. Heineken (+5.1%) are also higher after their earnings beat on estimates, alongside their shipments of their flagship brand increasing by their fastest pace in over 10 years by +7.7% Elsewhere, Wirecard (-2.9%) are once again in the red, following investors being notified of a class action lawsuit against the Co. and certain officers. Separately, at the bottom of the Stoxx 600 are ABN Amro (-7.2%) after the Co. missed on their Q4 profit; Clariant (-3.0%) are also lower following earnings.

Top European News

  • U.K. Inflation Below BOE Target for First Time Since 2017
  • Riksbank Commits to Rate-Hike Plan and Backs Off Currency Lever
  • Italy’s Government Under a Hail of Criticism in EU Parliament
  • Santander CoCos Rebound as Investors Swallow Call Disappointment

In FX, the NZD has descended from overnight highs, but remains well ahead of its major rivals in wake of a less dovish than anticipated RNBZ policy statement. Although the Bank retained the option to raise or lower rates and rolled out its OCR hike projection to 2021, Governor Orr refrained from cutting the odds of an ease despite recent disappointing data (like the Q4 jobs report) as many were expecting. Hence, the revised guidance sparked a short squeeze and scramble for cover that lifted Nzd/Usd up to around 0.6850 from circa 0.6730 at one stage, and well in excess of break-even pricing via options ahead of the event. Aud/Nzd recoiled to 1.0400 vs just shy of 1.0545, even though Aud/Usd also rebounded further from recent lows to 0.7135 or so at best amidst heightened hopes of a breakthrough in US-China trade negotiations and on the US Government funding front. Back to the Kiwi, 0.6850+ vs the Usd is still proving tough to overcome given Fib and MA resistance nearby.

  • SEK, NOK – The Swedish Krona has also strengthened on CB factors, as the Riksbank maintained that the next tightening move is likely to come in H2 this year given very little change in the outlook for domestic growth and inflation since its last policy gathering in December (when the repo rate was lifted), even though external risks may be more pronounced. Eur/Sek has extended its retreat from 10.5000+ levels to fill reported bids at 10.4400, but not much further, while Eur/Nok has also continued to decline and is currently just above 9.7600 vs 9.8000+, with the Norwegian Crown deriving more momentum from another rise in oil prices.
  • GBP – Conversely, the Pound remains hampered by Brexit-related issues with Cable fading again to sub-1.2900 levels and hardly helped by softer than expected UK inflation data. Note also, 1.2928 represents the 30 DMA and capped recovery gains made largely due to relative Greenback weakness, or a deeper pull-back from recent highs to be more precise (DXY down to 96.621 earlier vs 97.200 at yesterday’s new 2019 peak).
  • JPY – In contrast to the overall trend, Usd/Jpy has edged up again to register a fresh ytd high around 110.75, as firmer US Treasury yields and the ongoing improvement in risk appetite overrides all else. However, the headline pair still faces big offers at 111.00 where option and exporter interest await.

In commodities, WTI (+1.2%) and Brent (+1.5%) are holding onto most of yesterday’s Saudi-induced gains with prices underpinned after the API crude inventories printed an unexpected drawdown (-0.998mln vs. Exp. +2.700mln). The session also saw the release of the IEA monthly report which deviated slightly from the EIA STEO published yesterday. The IEA maintained 2019 global oil demand (compared to EIA’s modest downgrade), whilst raising non-OPEC supply growth (in-fitting with the OPEC and EIA reports) and cutting OPEC crude demand. Little sustained reaction was seen across the energy benchmarks post-release. On a more optimistic note, Goldman Sachs continues to expect further upside for Brent crude prices, citing resilient demand growth topping low expectations, as well as large OPEC supply cuts. Finally, traders will be eyeing the release of the weekly DoE’s later today with focus on US production, as usual. Elsewhere, gold (Unch) prices are marginally firmer on the day as the pullback in the DXY’s yearly highs helped the yellow metal nurse some of the prior day’s losses. Furthermore, CFTC data show that money managers have cut their bullish gold bets over 6k net long positions to just under 44k. This roll-back in gold-bulls comes amid as US President Trump downplayed the threat of a second government shutdown alongside hopes of positive US-Sino trade developments with Chinese President Xi reportedly to meet with key members of the US trade delegation on Friday. Meanwhile gains for copper remain limited amid weakness in Dalian iron ore prices following its recent rally.

Looking at the day ahead, the big focus is the January CPI report while later we’ll get the December monthly budget statement. The Riksbank meeting is also due today (no change in policy expected) while the scheduled central bank speakers are the ECB’s Lane and Visco, and the Fed’s Mester, Bostic and Harker.

US Event Calendar

  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -2.5%
  • 8:30am: US CPI MoM, est. 0.1%, prior -0.1%; CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%
  • 8:30am: US CPI YoY, est. 1.5%, prior 1.9%; CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 2.1%, prior 2.2%
  • 8:30am: Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY, prior 1.18%; Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY, prior 1.1%
  • 2pm: Monthly Budget Statement, est. $11.0b deficit, prior $204.9b deficit

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Back from the Middle East today and the highlight was a big meeting in Saudi where 25 very important clients from one institution sat me in a room, stared me out in silence with the head then opening proceedings by saying “so we read your research, but the question we really want the answer to is as follows. How do you think Game of Thrones will end?” As I always try to have a view I gave what I think is the answer. In case you don’t want spoilers from my imagination I’ll spare you here but email me if you want to know my view.

In my absence it hasn’t taken much for risk assets to go back into full blown rally mode again as the prospect of an averted government shutdown and dovish comments from Trump on trade helped the S&P 500 climb +1.28% yesterday and close at the highest since 3 December. There were similar moves for the DOW (+1.49%) and NASDAQ (+1.46%) while prior to that the STOXX 600 also climbed +0.46% and continuing to reverse some of last week’s losses. HY credit spreads in the US also rallied -8bps while conversely rates were weaker with 10y Treasuries yields +3.4bps and Bunds weakening +1.2bps. Meanwhile the USD finally brought to an end an 8-day winning run, weakening -0.36% with EM FX (+0.46%) a main beneficiary of that. WTI Oil (+1.30%) helped the latter on the back of comments from the Saudi Arabian Energy Minister who suggested the nation had pledged to make further production cuts.

As mentioned, the trade headlines certainly helped, as President Trump said that he could allow the March 1 tariff deadline to “slide” if “we’re close to a deal.” US negotiators are having high-level meetings with Chinese officials in Beijing this week, and flexibility on the deadline would reduce the pressure for an immediate breakthrough. Any delay to higher tariffs would be positive for markets, so the news was greeted by an equity rally, with cyclical and trade-dependent stocks outperforming. Caterpillar (+2.89%), Boeing (+1.68%), and 3M paced the gains (+2.79%). Just on those trade headlines, overnight the South China Morning Post reported (citing sources) that China’s President Xi Jinping “is scheduled to meet” key members of the US trade talks delegation, including US trade representative Robert Lighthizer and US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, in Beijing on Friday after lower level talks already planned tomorrow for the US delegation. If true, we could get some additional colour on trade talks post this meeting and an indication of whether the US will actually let the March 1 deadline slide.

Just on the shutdown, Trump still hasn’t actually confirmed whether he will support the bipartisan congressional agreement before the Friday night deadline. The proposal must be written into legislation and pass both chambers of Congress before it gets sent to the President’s desk for his approval or veto. After a cabinet meeting yesterday, President Trump said that “I can’t say I’m thrilled” with the deal but that “I don’t think you’re going to see a shutdown.” So there is still an element of uncertainty.

So that should be one of the next hurdles for markets to navigate however in the meantime they’ll get a chance to temporarily divert away from politics today with the January CPI report in the US due this afternoon being the data highlight of the week. The consensus expects a +0.2% mom core reading although base effects are expected to result in a small pullback in the annual rate to +2.1% yoy. That said, the seasonal revisions this week resulted in a slightly lower January 2018 reading which therefore makes for a lower hurdle to keeping the year-on-year rate near recent levels. Our US economists also highlight that the December print was boosted by outsized gains in a few specific categories so it wouldn’t be a great surprise to see some payback. Another interesting point our colleagues make is that January prints have tended to be higher than in other months, suggesting some residual seasonality. Over the past five years, January prints have averaged about 5bps higher than the prints in the other months of the year, though the recent methodological revisions are supposed to reduce this discrepancy by around half. So a bit more uncertainty than usual in the numbers today.

This morning in Asia markets are largely following Wall Street’s lead with the Nikkei (+1.41%), Hang Seng (+0.80%), Shanghai Comp (+0.94%) and Kospi (+0.41%) all up benefitting from the positive spin on trade headlines. China’s onshore yuan is also up +0.27%. In the meantime, the New Zealand dollar is up as much as +1.71% along with 10y sovereign yields (+7.2bps) as the central bank pushed out its forecast for an interest-rate increase to early 2021 thereby paring investors dovish bets who were looking for signs of a policy easing later this year. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are up +0.30% with the contracts again reaching the 200 day moving average levels post early December. In terms of overnight data releases, Japan’s January PPI stood at -0.6% mom (vs. -0.2% mom expected).

In other news, the latest on Brexit is that PM May has given herself a bit more wiggle room (as flagged over the weekend), committing to presenting another neutral motion in two weeks time after confirming that she needed “more time” to secure changes yesterday. That assumes a likely vote on February 27th. For now tomorrow’s debate and vote on amendments is still going ahead however we still don’t know what the amendments will be. The closely-watched Cooper-Boles amendment will be deferred until the vote later this month. Last night ITV News reported – citing overheard bar conversation of UK PM May’s chief negotiator Oliver Robbins – that PM May is planning to wait until the last moment before putting her Brexit deal to a vote in Parliament and will then ask law makers to choose between her blueprint and a potentially very long delay to Brexit. Before this Sterling (+0.33%) pared back early losses by the end of play last night although the FTSE 100 (+0.06%) underperformed the majority of other equity markets.

Over at the ECB, there appeared to be a change in stance from Klaas Knot (who was previously seen as a hawk) in an interview with the FT. The tone of the interview suggested a more neutral stance, no longer urging exit in 2019 and instead adopting a “wait and see attitude”. Weidmann, another hawk, also spoke and said that the current economic weakness is “a bit more protracted” than previously thought. So two hawkish members of the Governing Council shifting to a more neutral stance as the race for Draghi’s successor heats up. Speaking of new officials, Philip Lane, the newly designated ECB Chief Economist, spoke for the first time in his new capacity yesterday. He gave a pretty standard assessment of the European economy, saying that domestic demand “remains pretty strong” and that he’ll take a “measured” approach to assessing incoming data. Nothing to rock the boat from him.

Fed Chair Powell also declined to offer any surprises in comments yesterday. He said that “data at the national level show a strong economy” and officials “don’t feel the probability of recession is at all elevated.” He further added that there should be high priority focus on increasing labour force participation and “it is one we consider in our policies.” Nevertheless, he reiterated that rate hikes affect the economy with a long lag, providing justification for the apparent pause in the Fed’s hiking cycle. In the meantime, Fed’s Mester (non-voter) gave an upbeat assessment of the US economy mostly reiterating her comments from last week and added that even though she likes the Fed’s strategy of providing dot plot, the Fed officials “have to do a better job” at conveying the level of uncertainty around those projections. Interestingly, her comments follow those from her peer Bullard (voter) last week wherein he said that the Fed’s dot plot needs a rethink by saying, “I think it has become too prescriptive about the interest rate path. It builds in too much expectation that that is a baseline path from which we have a high bar to deviate. That I think is causing the committee problems. I think it caused us problems in December.” So interesting to see a debate developing around Fed’s dot plots and one to watch for. Mester also said that she has seen no evidence to prove that the central bank’s gradual unwind of its balance sheet was to blame for financial market volatility in the fourth quarter.

Over in Spain, the parliament is set for a key budget vote today. The governing coalition headed by the centre-left Socialist party controls only around 25% of the body’s seats, but needs a majority to pass its spending plan, and therefore needs votes from smaller parties. In particular, some smaller, Catalan parties are likely to vote against the measure, and government sources have indicated that the Socialists will call snap elections if the vote fails. The date for the national election would reportedly be April 14 or 28. Despite the elevated uncertainty, 10-year Spanish bond yields are around one-year lows at 1.24% and their spread to Bunds are right in the middle of their recent range at 111bps.

As for the data that was out yesterday, in the US the January NFIB small business optimism reading pulled back 3.2pts to 101.2 compared to expectations for a much more modest decline to 103.0. That’s now the lowest reading since November 2016. Meanwhile the now somewhat outdated JOLTS report for December saw openings up to 7.34m from an upwardly revised 7.17m in the month prior. So, consistent with a continuation of a robust labour market.

To the day ahead now where the early focus this morning is on the UK with the January inflation data dump. That includes CPI, PPI and RPI with the consensus running at +1.9% yoy for core CPI and unchanged relative to December. Our economists do however expect the core reading to slide a tenth to +1.8% reflecting some softness in food inflation and clothing and transport prices. Also due in the UK is the January house price index while later this morning we’re due to get the December industrial production report for the Euro Area (-0.4% mom expected). In the US this afternoon the big focus is the aforementioned January CPI report while later we’ll get the December monthly budget statement. The Riksbank meeting is also due today (no change in policy expected) while the scheduled central bank speakers are the ECB’s Lane and Visco, and the Fed’s Mester, Bostic and Harker.

 

 

 

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 49.17 POINTS OR 1.84% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 280.27 POINTS OR 1.34%  /The Nikkei closed UP 531.94 POINTS OR 2.61%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.14%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.7646 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil UP to 53.47 dollars per barrel for WTI and 62.94 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN //.

 ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 6.7646 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7723: / TRADE TALKS NOW ON/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

 

 

 

 

i)North Korea//USA

 

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

 

3 C CHINA

markets brighten with world that Xi would unexpectedly join the talk with Mnuchin and Lighthizer in Beijing.

(courtesy zerohedge)

President Xi Unexpectedly Joins Trade Talks With Mnuchin, Lighthizer

Two weeks after President Trump sent a spasm of enthusiasm through US markets by meeting with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He in Washington during the last round of trade negotiations, President Xi is reportedly set to return the favor this week by meeting with a delegation led by Trade Rep Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, according to South China Morning Post.

One unnamed source who spoke with the SCMP said the meeting with Xi will happen Friday, another source said it would happen at a “Chinese cuisine” restaurant somewhere in Beijing, though they added that the exact day had not yet been set. Talks involving Mnuchin and Lighthizer are expected to begin Thursday.

Xi

As the SCMP pointed out, a meeting with Xi would be a “sign of goodwill” intended to indicate that China is serious about making a deal. At this point, it’s likely the talks will need to be extended past the US’s “hard” March 1 deadline, though President Trump has said he’d rather not push back the deadline. Administration officials have told reporters that the administration is hoping to delay the talks while signaling to China that these deadlines can’t keep being pushed back indefinitely.

Trump said Tuesday that he could see himself “letting that slide for a little while…but generally speaking, I’m not inclined to do that.” Mnuchin said he was looking for “productive meetings” with Chinese officials.

Minutes

Wall Street analysts have said the best outcome for markets, at this point, would be an extension, because it would be difficult for the world’s two biggest economies to resolve their trade disputes by the deadline, given the challenge of US demands for structural reform in China to address issues of intellectual property protection, forced technology transfers and state subsidies.

end

then:

China becomes furious as they accuse the USA of fabricating threats aimed at Huawei and other telecom companies

how on earth can the USA have a deal with China?

(courtesy zerohedge)

Furious China Accuses US Of Fabricating Threats, Slams Huawei Boycott As “Hypocritical And Immoral”

The U.S. (and other countries, ahem Canada) have not presented any conclusive evidence that Chinese telecom giant Huawei threatens their national security and are merely stirring fears out of self-interest, a Chinese government spokeswoman said on Wednesday.

According to Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying, Huawei’s critics are conjuring up threats and misusing state power to “suppress the legitimate development rights and interests of Chinese enterprises” and are “using political means to intervene in the economy.”

Hua continued his slam of the US saying that “all countries should deal with relevant matters in an objective, comprehensive, rational, and correct manner, rather than fabricating excuses of all kinds for one’s own pursuit of interest at the cost of others, which is quite hypocritical, immoral, and unfair.”

Needless to say, Hua’s comments – coming just as US trade negotiators are in Beijing with president Xi unexpectedly set to join the discussions – at a daily briefing were “some of the sharpest yet” in the growing feud over Washington’s drive to convince other nations to shut Huawei out of their markets due to national security concerns, Reuters reported.

Huawei – the world’s biggest supplier of network gear used by phone and internet companies and the leaders in 5G technology – insists that it is independent and poses no threat to the security of others, but has long been seen by some as a front for spying by the Chinese military or security services. It’s also why the United States, Australia, Japan and some other governments have imposed curbs on use of Huawei technology, including smart phones.

US warnings about the risks of Chinese telecom technology come as governments are choosing providers for the rollout of 5G wireless internet, where Huawei is among the global leaders.

Escalating the growing boycott of Chinese telecom, on Tuesday in Poland, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo repeated a warning that the United States may be forced to scale back certain operations in Europe and elsewhere if countries continue to do business with Huawei. Pompeo said the U.S. had strong concerns about Huawei’s motives in Europe, especially in NATO and European Union member states, as well as its business practices.

“We’ve made known the risks that are associated with that, risks to private information of citizens of the country, risks that comes from having that technology installed in network systems,” he said.

The US has argued that under Chinese security laws companies such as Huawei or ZTE could be compelled to hand over data or access to Chinese intelligence. However, Hua responded that such concerns were based on provisions of China’s national intelligence law that differ little from similar legislation in other countries.

“It is an international practice to maintain national security with legislation and to require organizations and individuals to cooperate with national intelligence work,” Hua said.

And, in the angriest retort to Washington yet, Hua accused the US of creating “conspiracy theories” backed by nothing but hearsay, and that lacking solid evidence, the U.S. “keeps making up crimes and churning out various threat theories.”

“We believe that this is very hypocritical, unfair and immoral,” she said. All nations, Hua said, have an obligation to “abide by the market principle of free and fair competition and truly safeguard the market environment of fairness, justice and non-discrimination.

 

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

 

/SPAIN

Gridlock in Spain as the budget is rejected.  New elections are expected as Spanish conservatives and pro independence Catalonians rejected the latest budget.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Spanish Stocks Slide, Yields Climb, As Budget Rejected; New Elections Expected

In a widely expected but still potentially destabilizing development, Spanish conservatives and pro-independence Catalonians voted to back a slate of amendments to a government budget on Wednesday by a wide margin of 191 votes out of 350, defeating the funding bill, and setting the stage for Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez to call for new elections.

Sanchez

An election would be Spain’s third general election in less than four years, following the vote that led to the formation of Sanchez’s fragile socialist-led minority government last year. Bloomberg reported that Sanchez might wait until his cabinet meeting on Friday to call for the elections, which would most likely be set for April 28, according to local media reports.

Sanchez relied on support from Basque and Catalan nationalists to seize power from Mariano Rajoy’s conservatives in a no-confidence vote last year, per the Guardian.

The prime minister is expected to convene his cabinet later on Wednesday, when the new vote is expected to be called.

The IBEX edged lower after the bill was defeated, as political uncertainty weighed on Spanish stocks. Meanwhile, the 10-year risk premium over German debt widened by more than 100 basis points.

IBEX

Sanchez only has 84 socialist lawmakers in the chamber, making passing any legislation a challenge. And with leaders of the Catalonian separatist movement going on trial this week in Madrid, Catalonian lawmakers are hesitant to be seen backing the government.

In a sign that the unique form of gridlock ushered in by the Catalonian separatist movement might not be broken any time soon, the socialists are leading in the polls. But with the Catalonians opposing everything and everyone, it’s unlikely that the winning will be able to claim the majority needed to pass legislation.

Socialists

Sanchez took power last year after ousting former conservative Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy in a no-confidence vote spurred by a corruption scandal. And though his party is still leading in the polls, the most likely outcome, according to BBG, would be that a coalition of center-right parties could form a government. While the socialists are ahead in opinion polls, which show them on around 30% of voting intentions, but the two main right-leaning parties together poll at more than 30%.

end

GERMANY
Politically Germany is in a mess as the new CDU leader totally rebukes Merkel on her disastrous immigration policy
The next election will not produce the coalition needed to carry this export nation
(courtesy Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

Germany’s Political Mess: CDU Leader Rebukes Merkel On Immigration

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, the CDU’s new leader, makes pointed comments about learning from Angela Merkel’s mistake.

Immigration Clarity

The Financial Times reports Germany’s CDU Toughens Line On Immigration.

We have made it clear that we will do everything we can to ensure that 2015 [when nearly 1 million refugees entered Germany] won’t ever be repeated,” Ms Kramp-Karrenbauer said on Monday.

“We must make clear that we have learnt our lesson.”

That pointed blast was right at Chancellor Merkel. It’s not often a party leader rebukes a head of state from the same political party.

European politicians provided all kinds of clarity today. For a discussion of Brexit clarity, please see Clarification Toilet Paper.

Natural Alliance

As I have pointed out, the natural alliance in German politics would be CDU/CSU (Union) plus AfD. But that is out of the question given the other political parties equate AfD with Nazis.

Germany’s Political Mess

Grand, It Ain’t

The current “grand” coalition would not survive another election. The Greens have overtaken SPD.

As the German Polls stand now, it would take a three-way coalition to reach a majority.

Yet, the other parties rule out a coalition with AfD. Meanwhile, the Greens are in favor of more immigration.

Thus, there is no possible majority coalition that makes any sense in Germany.

Meanwhile, AfD, is the leading opposition. This dear Merkel, is what happens when you do stupid things.

end
Spain/Santander
 
Santander bank in Spain refuses to call its CoCo bonds which will infuriate shareholders as it sets up possible huge dilution if global condition continue to deteriorate as to what we are witnessing right now
(courtesy Bill Blain)

Blain: “Santander Slides Into A Circle Of Hell Previously Reserved For Deutsche Bank”

Blain’s Morning Porridge, submitted by Bill Blain

 

Its officially: “Take a Pop at Banco Santander Day”!

Yesterday Banco Santander didn’t make an anticipated call an old Euro 1.5 bln Tier 1 Contingent Capital issue. They’ve cited an “obligation to assess the economics and balance the interests of all investors” – which translates as shareholders first. As I’ve said before this week: at Santander you’re either a Botin or a Botone. (As Spanish banking proverb meaning you’re either part of the Botin family or nothing more than a mere servitor like a butler..)

Santander’s call was optional, but not calling it creates potential reputational damage for the bank – according to a slew of press stories this morning. Some say it puts them into a particular Circle of Hell (not the same one as Boris Johnson, Dodgy Davis and Farrage) of bad banks, previously reserved for Deutsche Bank.

I remember that day well.. Back in 2008 Deutsche Bank – then a leading European investment bank, was batting in the big leagues against the Americans, was the place everyone wanted to work for, to be banked by, and to own – decided the deteriorating financial situation meant they would not make the expected call on a Lower Tier 2 capital deal. The market was gob-smacked. They did it again in 2013 – missing a call on a Tier 1 deal, and further peeving investors. Deutsche Bank’s reputation took a massive spanking – I’d argue its current travails and loss of premier status stems from these events.

Back in 2008 I’d warned clients holding the Deutsche deal the call might not be made because of the extraordinary market circumstances, but that was because I was then already very old and remembered what happened during the great perp bond crash of 1986 when investors made the similar mistake of thinking banks were honourable, virtuous and would call their capital issues and not allow them to become perpetual debt. (I believe much of the callable subordinated debt that funded bank capital at Libor plus 25 issued in the mid 1980s are still around (and largely held by Japanese investors.)

Germans don’t do Financial PR particularly well.

The Spanish? Probably less so – but they don’t care. They don’t pretend to want to hug their debt investors. Their DNA is simple: make decisions based on the brutal pragmatic facts and assume the market has no long-term memory. Investors who found themselves holders of the bond, and expected them to call, made a very stupid schoolboy error – assuming Santander would a make a call when it made little economic sense to do so.

Most banks do care about their reputations and would have made the call – if you held Santander and expected it to call, then you didn’t understand the phsycology of the bank you were holding. Your mistake, not theirs.

Santander is not stupid. It proved itself good at acquisitions, and a nimble little dancer when it dodged the ABN/RBS disaster in 2008, by dumping its Italian acquisition while everyone else was looking elsewhere. Now it’s showing pragmatic credentials.

It’s cheaper for Santander to not make the call. The non-called deal currently yields 6.25% but will switch to a lower floating rate around 5.50% after the call expires. That means it’s costing them less than refinancing – the bank did a new $1.5 bln dollar deal at 7.5% last week.

Back when I was a Financial Institutions Group banker I once had the Spanish beat. I’d traipse down to see the Spanish banks to win bond mandates from them – and the conversation basically went: “How much are you (the banker) willing to pay us for the privilege of leading a bond issue for our bank.” The idea banks could actually make money  in fees from financing them was heresy. They treat investors with pretty much the same regard – caveat emptor. Which is entirely proper…

Does Santander’s failure to call put another nail in the AT1 CoCo market? You have to remember that CoCos and AT1 have been a stumbling solution to bank capital since the 2008 crisis. Regulators were furious they’d had to step in and bail out banks by injecting equity – debt holders largely weren’t touched. Because the banks didn’t go bust, losses were confined to equity.

So, the regulators they came up with a curious solution that turned the debt subordination ladder on its head. From then on debt investors would take the first losses by being bailed in if the bank faced a capital crisis! That was a truly bizarre moment – it meant debt investors took all the downside in a crisis, but received none of the upside. Yet, investors love them – taking the view higher coupons more than compensate these risks. Its now a $350 bln market.

A few years ago I wrote a note on AT1/CoCo bonds calling them “Demodium spawned bastard offspring of demented regulators and deranged banks”. Whatever, they yield enough to be investible.

Now that Santander has set a precedent, some pundits think all banks will follow suite, and not call their AT1 deals – triggering a likely sell off across the sector. Yet this morning the market is higher – Why? Because investors are being more selective, and looking for bargains in the names they think care more about keeping investors happy. Even Santander’s recent US$ AT1 is higher!

end
We have been bringing you details on Europe’s slow demise.  Industrial production is crapping out especially from Germany, the leader of European exports.  Generally speaking, if Germany had the “mark” instead of the Euro it would be in far worse shape as for at least the last decade it has enjoyed the use of a lower valued currency to help it in its trade.  The higher value of Euro destroyed the economies of the “club med” boys.
a must read…
(courtesy zerohedge)

“Things Are Deteriorating Quite Fast”: Europe Emerges As World’s “Weakest Link”

Last week, when looking at the latest regional Industrial Production figures out of European nations, we made a simple observation: while GDP has yet to confirm, Europe is now in a recession.

zerohedge@zerohedge

Europe is in a recession

And according to Bloomberg, just a few days later, Europe has indeed emerged as the world’s weakest link, and perhaps more so than the outcome of the US-China trade war, “it is Europe that increasingly looks like the biggest threat to global growth.”

As evidence, Bloomberg cites the same data that we highlighted last week, namely that industrial production across the 19-nation euro area is “falling at the fastest pace since the financial crisis, and deteriorating demand is evident as the region finds itself squeezed between international and domestic drags.” According to Wednesday data, industrial output for the Euro area slumped 0.9% in December from November, double the forecast, while the annual decline was the steepest since 2009.

That leaves Europe’s GDP at risk of barely reaching 1% in 2019, a sharp slowdown from 2018, with even continental powerhouse Germany in trouble. That, of course, is a polite way of saying that Europe is on the verge of a recession, if not already in one – as we claimed previously – and as seen in the following chart showing the recent series of disappointments in European economic data relative to expectations.

Making matters worse, Europe is sliding into contraction at the worst possible time: just as the ECB has ended its QE, although the silver lining is that any speculation for a rate hike by Mario Draghi have been permanently crushed, and like in the US, the only question now is when will QE return.

As a result, the Bloomberg euro index is near its lowest since mid-2017 and European stocks have never been cheaper relative to bonds in terms of yield gap. And investors are not happy.

“The concern I have right now is in Europe,” said Salman Ahmed, chief investment strategist at Lombard Odier. “Its clear China is going through a slowdown, but there’s also a strong amount of stimulus in the pipeline. However, in Europe, things are deteriorating quite fast.”

While Europe is no stranger to sluggish growth, the extent and suddenness of the latest bout of weakness is different, as unlike previous episodes, it reflects that the slowdown is hitting the core of the region.

As Bloomberg notes, while the likes of Greece were at the root of past sluggishness, this time Germany’s prospects are crumbling after a protracted slump in manufacturing. Household spending has also ground to a halt in France, which is beset by the Yellow Vest protests.

“Together those two countries account for about half the euro-area economy”, and any coordinated contraction in the two assures a Eurozone recession, best summarized by the following quote from Ludovic Subran, deputy chief economist at Allianz.: If France stops consuming and Germany stops producing you have a major problem in the euro zone.”

It’s not just the economy, however, as Europe’s demons that were previously stuffed under the rug, are once again starting to re-emerged: Italian bond yields, after a torrid burst of buying in the past few months, have once again started to creep higher amid doubts over fiscal management, the health of banks is questionable and Brexit remains unresolved. Yesterday’s decision by Santander not to call a contingent convertible note only adds to the woes plaguing Europe’s banks. Oh, and just one more observation: Deutsche Bank. Nuff said.

And speaking of the devil, Deutsche Bank’s chief economist David Folkerts-Landau said this month that “downside risks have risen sharply in Europe” (he did not discuss his employer’s key role therein).

As for the reasons behind Europe’s collapsing economy, they have been widely discussed previously, and revolve mostly around China’s economic slowdown, with automakers such as Fiat citing weaker demand in the world’s second-largest economy. That’s filtering through to other companies, “with Brussels-based Umicore saying last week that profit will be held back by the global automotive slowdown.”

Even companies reporting resilience in China are wary. L’Oreal chief Jean-Paul Agon said this month the economic backdrop will remain “volatile and unpredictable,” though the French cosmetics giant also posted forecast-beating sales helped by the “dynamism of Chinese consumers.”

All of this is known; what is not known is what Europe can or will do if its slowdown fails to reverse: “If it does get worse, there’s a question over how authorities could respond, and the European Central Bank has little left in the tank.”

Yet another unprecedented central bank intervention may still be needed. According to Bloomberg, Germany’s downside may be limited by “record-low unemployment along with modest fiscal stimulus. And Bloomberg Economics research suggests that spillovers from Germany to other euro nations is usually containable. That’s partly because it has a different structure and its shocks are country-specific.”

Unless, of course, this time is different, with it is because even with a slumping Euro, Germany’s export powerhouse is unable to capitalize on this export subsidy.

Meanwhile, like Deutsche Bank, Goldman recently downgraded its near-term euro-area expectations, although it remains optimistic on the longer-term outlook, and sees an improvement later this year, thanks to a boost from lower oil prices and fiscal policy. ABN Amro economist Aline Schuling shares the view: “The domestic economy is quite resilient. You could very well have a negative first quarter and a weakish second, but after that it should pick up again. I don’t expect a deep or prolonged recession.”

Which is bad news for traders, now that the world is back in a global race to the rates bottom, because the deeper and more prolonged the recession, the more assured yet another major intervention by the ECB.

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Iran

You do not see this often:  a suicide attack inside Iran kills 20 Iranian revolutionary guards plus 20 wounded

(courtesy zerohedge)

Suicide Attack On Iranian Revolutionary Guard Bus Leaves Over 20 Dead

Iranian state media reports a massive suicide bombing has ripped through an Iranian Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) transport bus in the country’s southeast on Wednesday, leaving at least 20 dead and over 20 wounded. The death toll is likely to climb higher as more information is revealed. State-run FARS News Agency’s live reports have identified up to 30 dead in the aftermath.

A handout picture released by Iran’s Fars news agency shows the bus that was reportedly blown up, via AFP/Fars News

The attack follows a similar incident last September, wherein ISIS claimed responsibility for a mass shooting at a military parade which left 29 dead. The last known suicide bombing inside Iran was in 2017, making Wednesday’s bombing a rare and devastating event, especially considering it reportedly targeted elite IRGC personnel.

According to early AP and Reuters reports, IRGC troops were aboard a bus when it exploded:

The suicide bomber struck a bus transporting IRGC members on the road between the cities of Zahedan and Khash in Sistan-Baluchistan Province, a volatile area near the border with Pakistan where militant groups and drug smugglers frequently operate, Fars reported.

No further details about the attack were immediately available.

FARS was quick to release footage from the blast site, which appears be along a remote desert highway, suggesting a high level of planning for the attack:

Embedded video

Joyce Karam

✔@Joyce_Karam

FARS News Agency releases first Video from site of terrorist attack in reportedly killing at least 20 IRGC personnel (this says 30 total killed) :

Though it’s not immediately clear who’s behind the bombing, ISIS-linked groups have been behind prior attacks, including the June 7, 2017 attack on the parliament building in Tehran, as well as the important Shia religious site of the Mausoleum of Ruhollah Khomeini.

A total of 17 civilians were dead and 43 wounded as a result of the 2017 terrorist incident, which Iranian authorities blamed on both ISIS and Saudi Arabia.

In an update on Wednesday, Iran’s Press TV has identified a Pakinstani-linked Sunni group as claiming responsibility. The report also notes a suicide bomber detonated a car by ramming it into the bus:

The IRGC’s Qods Headquarters said in a statement that an explosive-laden car rammed into the bus, which was taking the personnel back to their homes.

The so-called Jaish ul-Adl terrorist group reportedly claimed responsibility for the bombing.

The terrorist outfit was formed in 2012 by members of the Pakistan-based Jundallah, another terror group dismantled by Iranian intelligence forces in 2010 after its ringleader Abdolmalek Rigi was executed.

Iranian border guards have repeatedly come under attacks by terror outfits active on the Pakistani soil.

The video posted by Fars showed blood and debris on the highway at the site of the attack, but few other details have been given.

In the past Tehran’s leadership has pointed to state sponsors behind such terror attacks, including Saudi Arabia and Pakistan.

 

 

end

Iran/USA

This is interesting:  the New York times report on a leak that we have a secret American program at sabotaging Iranian missiles with faulty components. Sounds like the Israeli’s gave a helping hand in this one.

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

Clandestine US Program To Sabatage Iranian Missiles, Rockets Revealed In Leak To NYT

Thanks to another felonious leak of classified information to the New York Times, we now know that the Trump administration has accelerated a secret American program aimed at sabotaging Iran’s missiles and rockets by sabotaging their supply chain with faulty components, “according to current and former administration officials.”

President Hassan Rouhani of Iran in 2017 in Tehran at an exhibition of the country’s achievements in space technology.

The success of the effort is unknown, however the Times suggests that Iran’s two recent satellite launch failures “within minutes” may be due to the previously undisclosed program.

Those two rocket failures — one that Iran announced on Jan. 15 and the other, an unacknowledged attempt, on Feb. 5 — were part of a pattern over the past 11 years. In that time, 67 percent of Iranian orbital launches have failed, an astonishingly high number compared to a 5 percent failure rate worldwide for similar space launches.

The setbacks have not deterred Iran. This week, President Hassan Rouhani singled out Tehran’s missile fleets as he vowed to “continue our path and our military power.” –New York Times

The United States has accused Iran of using their space program as a guise to develop ballistic missiles powerful enough to travel between continents. Hours after Iran’s failed January launch, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said that Iran’s satellite launchers contain technology which is “virtually identical and interchangeable with those used in ballistic missiles.”

Leading a meeting of 65 nations this week in Warsaw alongside Vice President Mike Pence, Pompeo sought to encourage Middle East stability – including “by expanding economic sanctions against Iran,” according to the Times, which adds that the meeting was “largely an appeal to European allies who, while continuing to oppose President Trump’s decision to abandon the 2015 nuclear accord with Iran, also agree that the missile tests must stop.”

Iran launched a Simorgh, a satellite-carrying rocket, in July 2017. Photo: Iranian Defense Ministry, via Associated Press

Following the launch failures, the Times reached out to over a half-dozen current and former government officials who have participated in the sabotage program for more than a decade.

“The covert actions against Iran’s missile and rocket program are being taken through countries and companies that supply Tehran’s aerospace operations,” writes the Times.

The officials described a far-reaching effort, created under President George W. Bush, to slip faulty parts and materials into Iran’s aerospace supply chains. The program was active early in the Obama administration, but had eased by 2017, when Mr. Pompeo took over as the director of the C.I.A. and injected it with new resources.

Tehran is already suspicious. Even before Mr. Trump withdrew last May from the nuclear accord, Brig. Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh, the head of Iran’s missile program, accused American and allied intelligence agencies of turning their campaigns of “infiltration and sabotage” to Iran’s missile complex from its atomic infrastructure. –New York Times

Brig. Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh, the head of Iran’s missile program, has said that Iran’s pursuit of missiles will never stop “under any circumstances.”

“They want to repeat their nuclear sabotage in the missile area,” Hajizadeh told Iranian state television in 2016, adding that the Islamic Republic’s missile program will never stop “under any circumstances.”

Government officials asked the Times to withhold some details of the program – mostly involving the identities of various suppliers to the Iranian program since their effort is ongoing. And based on the recent launch failures, it appears that this effort has intensified.

Speaking from the Pentagon in January during the unveiling of a new missile defense strategy, President Trump knocked Iran’s failed launch, which – had it succeeded, would have given Tehran “critical information” which could be used to “pursue intercontinental ballistic missile capability, and a capability, actually, of reaching the United States.”

“We’re not going to have that happen,” said Trump.

Iran’s enemies

Iran’s quest for powerful missiles began in the 1980s when Saddam Hussein shot waves of missiles from Iraq into Iranian cities, killing hundreds of civilians. Iran fired back using Soviet-designed missiles acquired from North Korea, Syria and Libya.

No Dong (Shahab-3) missile at a 2000 military parade in Tehran

By the end of the 1980s, Iran was importing the “No Dong” missile from North Korea – which it renamed the Shahab-3 (or “Shooting Star-3) – capable of sending warheads up to 800 miles; enough to hit Israel. The No Dong’s seven-foot-long engine has become the first-stage propulsion unit for the majority of Iran’s long-range missiles and for all of its space launchers, writes The Times.

Following the 2003 US-led Iraq war, Western powers beefed up their efforts to thwart Iran’s missile and nuclear ambitions.

By 2006, the United Nations Security Council demanded that Iran stop enriching uranium, a main fuel of nuclear weapons. Iran’s refusal prompted the imposition of sanctions that banned the import of parts, materials and technologies for manufacturing nuclear fuel — and for building missiles. –New York Times

Two covert programs targeting Iran were launched during the Bush administration; one was focused on nuclear materials, and the other on the Islamic Republic’s missile program.

It did not take much, according to officials from both the Bush and Obama administrations. Flight disruption could take no more than a small design change in a critical valve, a modest alteration in an engine part or guidance system, or a contaminated alloy for making launcher fins, crucial for aerodynamic stability.

American military officials urged Congress to put more money into programs they obliquely hailed in open testimony as “left of launch” techniques — so called because they rely on sabotaging launchers before they are fired. –New York Times

In 2010, meanwhile, a sophisticated malicious computer virus known as Stuxnet – thought to be a jointly built American / Israeli cyber-weapon, targeted Iranian centrifuge systems, causing them to tear themselves apart.

Thanks to UN sanctions on Iran, Tehran has been forced to rely increasingly on black markets and shadowy middlemen – which have been compromised by the CIA – resulting in the faulty components being slipped into the supply chain.

Under President Obama, faulty parts were provided not only for missiles, but also satellite launch components.

According to the Times, however, some rocket specialists have challenged the notion that the sabotage of Iran’s missile program also affected their space program, as “whatever overlap exists is too small to be significant.”

Despite Iran dismantling its centrifuges under the 2015 nuclear agreement, and shipping 97% of its nuclear fuel to Russia, the Islamic Republic has reportedly ramped up its missile and space program. This is where Pompeo and the CIA stepped in, immediately focusing on the supply chain for rockets and missiles.

He had graduated from West Point with a degree in mechanical engineering and founded, with classmates, Thayer Aerospace, named for a famous superintendent of the military academy. The company made parts for Boeing, Lockheed and Raytheon. Mr. Pompeo understood what happens when aerospace parts are produced with less than extreme precision. From 2011 to 2017, he served in Congress, including on the House Intelligence Committee.

When he got to the C.I.A., he pressed to reinvigorate the sabotage program. It was, a former official said, an obvious target. –New York Times

The clandestine effort to “seed” Iran’s aerospace program with faulty components can take years – while knowing whether said components were actually used in the construction of rockets and missiles is virtually impossible.

In one instance, the United States got lucky: “A short-range Iranian-made missile landed in Baghdad’s Green Zone, but failed to detonate. When experts pulled it apart, they found one of the American-sabotaged parts inside, according to a former senior official.”

Complicating efforts to assess the sabotage program is Iran’s size and proximity. Around twice the size of Texas, missile components typically fall into its own territory – unlike North Korea, whose missile launches are relatively easy to monitor given its proximity to American bases, fleets, radars and allies.

With Iran, the evidence is not so easy.

At least once, an Iranian rocket exploded on the launchpad, leaving damage so extensive that satellites passing overhead could make out blast scars, burned wreckage and a blackened rocket transporter. Iranian officials kept silent on that disaster, in 2012. –New York Times

According to sky monitors, Iran’s latest failures have been easy to track. The country has failed to successfully test their latest generation satellite launcher – a much more powerful, nine-story-tall rocket known as Signorgh which left the ground intact but suffered a failure in its third stage.

Sometimes life does not go as expected,” said Iran’s minister of telecommunications, Mohammad Javad Azari Jahromi.

And sometimes that’s because the United States slipped faulty components into your rockets, according to the New York Times.

 

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

The Baltic Dry index is such a good indicator of global economic conditions.  it is simply the rate at which dry goods (not oil) is transported by ship.  When economic conditions are good, rates are higher.  It has now totally collapsed and it is now ear its worst on record at an unbelievable low of 598.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Why S&P Bulls Should Worry As The Baltic Dry Collapse Nears Worst On Record

As we noted recently, despite global stock markets soaring, global freight indices have been more-than-seasonally weak so far in 2019 with the Baltic Dry Index in particular crashing.

The Baltic Dry Index represents the cost of renting an ocean-going container ship to move goods from, say, Chinese factories to the Port of Los Angeles. The more stuff being made and sold, the higher the demand for such ships, and thus the higher the price to rent one. And vice versa.

This is definitely one of the vice versa times. After rising to robust levels in mid-2018 the Baltic Dry Index has since collapsed…

 

This is just shy of the worst start to a year on record (since at least 1984)…

 

As The Wall Street Journal recenjtly noted, Free-Falling Freight Rates Spell Trouble For Shipping

Dry bulk shipowners face a long period of uncertainty as spot prices collapse and China shipments shrink.

A slowing global economy, coupled with weak demand from China over the Lunar New Year and from Brazil after Vale SA’s iron ore disaster, is dragging shipping rates to near record lows, and few in the industry expect things to improve any time soon.

Brokers in Singapore and London said capesize vessels, the largest ships that move bulk commodities like iron ore, coal and aluminum, were chartered in the spot market for as low as $8,200 a day on Thursday, a $500 decline from Wednesday. Break-even costs for carriers can be as high as $15,000 a day, and daily rates in the capesize market hovered above $20,000 last year.

“Everyone is looking for a catalyst to push the market up, but it’s not there,” said a Singapore broker.

The Baltic Dry Index, which tracks the cost of moving bulk commodities and is considered a leading indicator of global trade, is down more than 50% since the start of the year.

“A long slowdown in the Chinese economy will hurt commodity demand and send shipping rates sharply lower,” Bloomberg Intelligence industry analyst Rahul Kapoor said.

And that is why equity market “believers” should be worried. US equities have soared despite earnings expectations plunging…

And given the leading nature of The Baltic Dry Index (you can’t sell what you haven’t shipped into inventory), the message for US equities is ominous – perhaps fun-durr-mentals will matter once again?

Worse still, as John Rubino previously concludedthe trade war isn’t just a piece of political theater for the US. We really do need factories to come back home if we want to avoid a populist and/or socialist revolution. And next generation manufacturing tech like 3D printers will in any event move production closer to end users, lowering the need for at least some of today’s shipping.

It’s possible, in other words, that the whole free trade/mobile capital/cheap labor/long supply chain Age of Globalization, with its assumption of unlimited rich-country demand and plentiful cheap energy for transport was just an artifact of a very specific time. It was so cheap and easy to move things around that building toys or TVs wherever labor was cheapest and shipping them to wherever the money resided made financial sense.

That might not be a permanent state of affairs, and if it’s not, those giant ships won’t be the only stranded capital out there.

end

7  OIL ISSUES

 

end

8. EMERGING MARKETS

Venezuela/USA

 

end

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1304 DOWN .0029 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES GREEN 

 

 

 

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 110.76  UP .228 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2909    UP   0.0018  (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED

USA/CAN 1.3242 UP .0012 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS MONDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE by 15 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1293/ Last night Shanghai composite closed UP 49.17 POINTS OR 1.84%/

 

 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 326.26  POINTS OR 1.16% 

 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN .14%  /EUROPEAN BOURSES GREEN

 

 

 

 

 

 

The NIKKEI: this WEDNESDAY morning CLOSED UP 280.27  POINTS OR 1.34% 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

1/EUROPE OPENED GREEN

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 80.27 POINTS OR 1.34%

 

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 49.17 POINTS OR 1.84% 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.13%

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 280.27 POINTS OR 1.34%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1308.90

silver:$15.66

Early WEDNESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.69% !!! UP 1 IN POINTS from TUESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

 

The 30 yr bond yield 3.02 UP 0  IN BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 96.84 UP 13 CENT(S) from  TUESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers WEDNESDAY MORNING

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And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS \12: 00 PM

 

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.59% DOWN 5     in basis point(s) yield from TUESDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.01%  UP 0   BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

 

 

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.23% DOWN 1   IN basis point yield from TUESDAY

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.78 DOWN 6     POINTS in basis point yield from MONDAY/

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 155 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS UP TO +.12%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.66% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A MASSIVE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY

Closing currency crosses for WEDNESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1285 DOWN   .0049 or 49 basis points

 

 

USA/Japan: 110.83 UP  0.312 OR 31 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2862 DOWN.0028( POUND DOWN 28  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 6 basis points to 1.3236

 

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The USA/Yuan,CNY closed HOLIDAY AT 6.7606    0N SHORE

 

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.7793(  YUAN DOWN)

TURKISH LIRA:  5.2818

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.01%

 

 

 

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield UP 1 IN basis points from TUESDAY at 2.69 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.02 UP 0  in basis points on the day /

THE RISE IN BOTH THE 10 YR AND THE 30 YR ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR VALUATIONS

Your closing USA dollar index, 97.00 UP 30 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for WEDNESDAY: 12:00 PM 

London: CLOSED UP 58,47 OR 0.82%

German Dax : UP 52.11 POINTS OR 0.47%

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 22,28 POINTS OR  0.44%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 3.00 POINTS OR  0.03%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 184,62 POINTS OR 0.93%

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 54.11 1:00 pm;

Brent Oil: 63.46 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   ROUBLE CROSS:    65.87  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.01 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE LOWER BY 1 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD LOWERS TO +.12 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  53.97

 

 

BRENT :  63.61

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 2.70..

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.03

 

 

 

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS:  1.1266 ( DOWN 68    BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:110.99 UP.0482 (YEN DOWN 48   BASIS POINTS/..

 

.

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 97.16 UP 45 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA:1.2847  DOWN 43 POINTS FROM YESTERDAY

the Turkish lira close: 5.2818

the Russian rouble 65.52   down .65 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( DOWN 65 BASIS POINTS)

 

Canadian dollar:  1.3256 DOWN 26 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  6.7604  (ONSHORE)/CLOSED FOR THE WEEK

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 6.7850  (OFFSHORE)

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,0.12%

 

The Dow closed UP 116.97 POINTS OR 0.46%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 5.76 POINTS OR 0.08%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  15.35 CLOSED DOWN .08 

 

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.692%  

 

 

FROM 2.688

 

 

 

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY/WEEKLY SUMMARY/FOLLOWED BY TODAY

“Something Changed” – Stocks Buck 2019 Trend With Late-Day Dump

“Back to the future”…

 

Chinese stocks extended their epic run overnight…

 

Italian stocks are leading in Europe…

 

US equities drifted higher overnight, surged at the cash open, dumped on Marco Rubio’s tweet about taxing buybacks, then ramped back to the highs – because, well… just because…. and then faded as Trump asked Congress for more funding in the border bill…

 

Nasdaq futures plunged into the red late in the day after Trump funding headlines…

 

Notably – The Dow made a lower high on its post-European close surge before fading fast…

 

Once again the short-squeeze is invoked (5th day in a row)…

 

And once again it was all buybacks supporting the bid…

 

The S&P 500 opened (and closed) above its 200DMA for the first time since early December…

 

Before we leave stocks, we note that something changed today (and yesterday) with a late-day weakness we have not seen all year…

 

Treasury yields rose for the 3rd day in a row – led by the belly of the curve…

 

Debt Ceiling anxiety is starting to appear in the T-Bill curve...The slight dislocation aligns with Wall Street strategists’ very early forecasts as to when the Treasury could exhaust its extraordinary measures.

 

After rallying for 8 straight days, the dollar dipped yesterday… but that was all forgotten today as the dollar soared back to new highs…

 

The dollar strength weighed on PMs and copper but oil prices surged despite inventory builds…

 

Finally, we note that the initial Plunge Protection Team surge in global central bank balance sheets has now faded, leaving stocks on their own… for now…

With a gaping spread to reality…

It can’t happen again right?

end

 

 

MARKET TRADING

Stocks Tumble Into European Close, Erase Overnight Gains

No immediate catalyst (headline or technical level) jumps out, but as the European close loomed, US equities tumbled, erasing the opening ramp and overnight gains…

“Sell the news” on a border/shutdown deal?

 

END

 

ii)Market data/

This is not what the Fed was looking for:  USA consumer price growth is the slowest since Sept 2016/ Powell wants a pickup in CPI past his hedonistic 2.0%

(courtesy zerohedge)

US Consumer Price Growth Slowest Since Sept 2016 As Gas Prices Plummet

While headline and core CPI slowed in December, the print was still boosted by outsized gains in a few specific categories so it wouldn’t be a great surprise to see some payback in January (and expectations were for a slowdown).

But – that did not work out – headline and core CPI YoY growth topped expectations (+1.6% vs +1.5% exp and +2.2% vs +2.1% exp respectively)…

However, headline CPI YoY slowed to its weakest since September 2016.

As Bloomberg reports, the CPI report had a few quirks, including a 1.1 percent rise in apparel prices that was the biggest in almost a year. Apparel prices reflected outsize gains in footwear, which had the biggest increase since 1988, and women’s clothing.

The report showed new car prices rose 0.2 percent from the prior month for the first increase since July. Used car prices were up 0.1 percent after declining in December.

Energy prices also had an outsize impact on the headline number with a 3.1 percent monthly drop that was the most in almost three years. Gasoline prices fell 5.5 percent from the prior month and were down 10.1 percent from a year earlier.

Another silver lining in the inflation slowdown is the drop in the growth of rent costs to its slowest since Jan 2015…

Notably, Deutsche Bank points out that January prints have tended to be higher than in other months, suggesting some residual seasonality. Over the past five years, January prints have averaged about 5bps higher than the prints in the other months of the year, though the recent methodological revisions are supposed to reduce this discrepancy by around half.

Of course, this adds to the goldilocks narrative – as Powell signaled at his last press conference in late January that rates are unlikely to rise until inflation accelerates.

“I would want to see a need for further rate increases, and for me, a big part of that would be inflation,” he said. “It wouldn’t be the only thing, but it would certainly be important.”

So, forget collapsing earnings expectations and slumping global growth – weak US inflation means The Fed has an excuse to stay on the sidelines so BTFD!

end

Graham Summers explains beautifully the pickle the uSA is in.  Powell reversed course suddenly and by doing this something sinister is hiding underneath the hood.

A good read..

(courtesy Graham Summers/Phoenix Research Capital)

Buying Stocks Today Is Like Buying Stocks Based on the Bear Stearns Deal

Mark your calendars… January 30 2019, marks the day that Jerome Powell threw in the towel and became a stock market promoter just like Janet Yellen and Ben Bernanke before him.

It will also likely mark the day that the Fed began to lose any credibility in terms of monetary policy.

For those of you who missed it, that day the Fed failed to raise interest rates.

This means the Fed believes that with unemployment supposedly at 3.9% and GDP growth at 3.7%… the US economy could not handle a 0.25% interest rate hike to 2.75%

On top of this, the Fed also indicated that it might NOT hike rates again in 2019 AND that it is prepared to adjust its balance sheet normalization or Quantitative Tightening (QT) program if necessary.

This is the single biggest reversal in Fed history.

The Fed went from promising four rates hikes in 2019 and leaving its QT program on autopilot to pushing for NO rate hikes and suggesting that it would “adjust” its QT program if needed. All in the space of a SINGLE QUARTER (3 months).

And unfortunately for those who bought into stocks based on this… it’s going to fail.

The reality is that barring the announcement of a NEW Quantitative Easing (QE) program, the Fed will fail to stop the coming market carnage. Stopping rate hikes and expressing flexibility in terms of QT is VERY different from actually CUTTING rates and HALTING QT.

Remember, the Fed is STILL draining $50 billion in liquidity from the system every month regardless of its verbal interventions. That problem has NOT been fixed.

Also, and this is the REALLY big issue… The reason the Fed is so openly switching to dovish is because something REALLY BAD is unfolding in the financial system.

It’s not as though the Fed simply went from hawkish to dovish on a whim. Fed officials have clearly realized what I was talking about as far back as June 2018… namely that its rate hikes and QT were going to trigger a crisis.

That process is already underway, stocks have taken out their bull market trendline just as they did in 2000 and 2008. It’s now just a matter of time before the crisis hits.

GPC212193real.png

Those investors who are buying stocks today based on the Fed’s decision to cave on normlization, are much like those who bought in early 2008 based on the Bear Stearns deal. It looks smart at first… right until the market realizes that the reason the Fed did this was because something HORRIBLE is coming down the pike.

A Crash is coming…

END

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

Important:  TBAC notes that the uSA will need to bring in more financing dollars as its deficits rise. The Fed then warns that the dollar might not retain its dominance and this is something that we have been pointing out to you on several occasions.  The uSA dollar percentage of global reserves has dropped from 70% in 1999 to 63% today

 

(courtesy zerohedge)

Fed Warns Dollar “Might Not Retain Its Dominance Forever”

When the TBAC published the minutes to its quarterly refunding decision two weeks ago, the most interesting part of the discussion was the “unique challenges” faced by the Treasury over the medium term, especially the possibility of significant financing gap over next 10 years amounting to over $12 trillion and the potential need for more domestic investor participation if foreign reserve growth slows.

Here, among other things (which potentially include the Green New Deal, with its $6+ trillion cost) the TBAC cautioned that the Treasury’s financing needs are expected to increase significantly even without factoring in recession possibilities over the next decade. The TBAC warned that deficits to the tune of $1-$1.5trn a year, and cumulatively over $12trn, over the next decade, are coming and will have to be funded in the bond market. Meanwhile, the CBO stubbornly refuses to forecast a recession during the next decade, instead projecting a steady 1.5-2% real GDP growth over the next 10y. While the TBAC did not take a position on this laughable assumption, it warned that deficits typically rise 2-5% of GDP in recessionswhich would translate to additional deficits of $0.5-1trn at current GDP levels, and warns that “these borrowing needs have to financed in the context of already high global dollar debt exposure.”

 

But the bigger problem is that in the context of soaring deficit funding needs, the TBAC is also increasingly worried that “foreign investors already hold significant dollar debt” which is why the US will have to increasingly rely on domestic savings to fund its future budget deficits.

And here the TBAC made a surprising, tongue-in-cheek observation, namely that reserve managers have been very gradually increasing allocation to other currencies, and that the USD share of FX reserves has steadily come down from 72% in 2000 to 62% now even though the “USD is still the dominant reserve currency.”

Still. As in for the foreseeable future, but not that much longer.

Needless to say commenting (or joking) even sarcastically about the reserve status of the dollar, is generally frowned upon in very polite company because if enough people start “joking” about it, it just might become a self-fulfilling prophecy. It won’t be the first time, just ask any of the countries below which all enjoyed reserve currency status for decades… and could print their way out of all trouble until one day, poof: “it’s gone.”

We bring up all of this again, because yesterday in a blog post on the NY Fed “Liberty Street Economics” website, the researchers of the US central bank doubled-down on the snide observations made by the TBAC when they “addressed the potential implications for the United States if the dollar’s global role changed” and we quote, noted that “the currency might not retain its dominance forever.”

But why now? Because just like Mnuchin’s calls to banks to comfort the public that they have sufficient liquidity sparked questions why is Mnuchin suddenly concerned about bank liquidity, so the recent focus on the viability of the dollar’s reserve status, first by the Treasury Department’s smartest Wall Street advisors, and now – by the Federal Reserve itself – is… a little troubling.

In any case, this is how the authors set the stage:

This post checks the status of the dollar, considering whether any erosion in the dollar’s international standing has occurred. The evidence to date is that the dollar remains the world’s dominant currency by broad margins. Alternatives have not gained extensive traction, albeit this does not rule out potential future pressures.

So nothing to worry about? Well, not really.

First, the good news: as the blog writes, since the global financial crisis, “central banks have accumulated official reserves more extensively to self-insure against dollar-funding market disruptions.”

Indeed, many foreign investors and central banks are major holders of U.S. Treasuries, as these represent deep and liquid dollar investments. (See the next chart.) The dollar is the principal anchor currency for about 65 percent of countries with fixed or managed exchange rate arrangements. These countries account for approximately 75 percent of world output.

Some more good news: the dominant role of the dollar as a unit of exchange and as a transactions and settlement currency is illustrated by its continued broad use in 88 percent of foreign exchange transaction volumes and at least 40 percent of the invoicing of imports of countries other than the United States. Sixty-two percent of international debt securities issuance, 49 percent of all debt securities issuance, and 48 percent of all cross-border bank claims are dollar-based. Roughly half of the $1.6 trillion of dollar banknotes in circulation are held overseas, fluctuating with economic and political uncertainty in foreign countries. In payments systems, roughly half of the $5 trillion of transactions settled daily through the CLS system are denominated in dollars, according to 2018:H1 data.

So far so good: and yet some clouds are forming on the horizon, as the following observation details:

The dollar share in official global reserves has gradually declined, falling from as high as 70 percent in 1999 to about 63 percent at the end of 2017with early gains for the euro and later gains for a broader group of currencies. The accumulation of dollar reserves accelerated and then stabilized at higher levels after the global financial crisis as countries sought to amass cushions against U.S. dollar liquidity shocks. Some accumulation of other currencies in portfolios occurred in recent years as countries looked to improve portfolio returns in the low interest rate environment.

This brings us back to an observations made by the TBAC at the end of January, according to which global FX reserves growth has stalled and global trade, as a share of world GDP, appears to have peaked, while China is now running a flat current account with the rest of the world, something we discussed extensively in “A Tectonic Shift In China’s Economy Has Largely Gone Unnoticed By Investors.

As a result of these transformations, there has been an even lower official foreign demand for USTs, which has been evident in lower foreign bids at 2-5y Treasury auctions compared to longer tenor auctions. Furthermore, foreign holdings of marketable Treasuries, as % of outstanding, have declined meaningfully from the pre-crisis peak (from 55% in March 2009 to 41% currently)

And while the TBAC admits that Treasuries look far less attractive on a FX hedged basis, something we also discussed recently, which is likely contributing to this decline in foreign demand, the TBAC believes “the decline might be more secular in nature.”

In its conclusion, the NY Fed econ team tries to take the TBAC’s somewhat alarmist conclusion and nuance it, noting that “while the dollar’s international status may have declined in some pockets, overall it remains dominant.” Nevertheless, it concedes that “recent trends bear watching” warning that “as history suggests a currency’s dominant status is not immutable” and just in case repeating its warning that “the [US Dollar] might not retain its dominance forever.

Sadly the Fed did not specify just what actions taken by, well, It would be necessary and sufficient to finally end the dollar’s exorbitant privilege, after which any and all discussions about Magic Money Tree theories or who would fund various Green New Deals would promptly end as the “Venezuela alternative” would be all too clear.

end
A huge commentary:  for the 12 month trailing, treasury receipts have turned negative and this generally means recession.  Also the budget deficit seems heading for 1.1 trillion dollars to 1.2 trillion dollars. Personal income taxes are lower as is corporate taxes..and the stock market is booming?/?
(courtesy zerohedge)

Recession Alert: Treasury Receipts Turn Negative For The First Time Since The Trump Election

On the surface, today’s monthly budget statement showed some good news: in December the US Treasury brought in total receipts of $313 billion (and $771 billion for the fiscal year to date), versus outlays of only $326 billion (and $1.09 trillion for fiscal 2019), resulting in a deficit of $14 billion, modestly worse than the $11 billion deficit expected (and better than 2017’s December deficit of $23 billion). The not so good news is that for the fiscal year through Dec.31, the total US budget deficit was $319 billion, 40% greater than the $227 billion deficit for the prior year, and set to keep rising this year to $1.1 trillion.

However, a more concerning data point emerges when looking at the annual change in the rolling 12 month total. It is here that we find that for the LTM period ended Dec 31, total government receipts were $3.33 trillion. This number was 0.4% lower than the $3.344 trillion reported one year ago.

Why is this important? Because as the chart below shows, every time since at least 1970 when government receipts have turned negative on an annual basis, the US was on the cusp of, or already in, a recession. Indicatively, the last time government receipts turned negative was just after the Trump presidential victory, which however managed a dead cat bounce in the subsequent two years, before again turning negative at the end of 2018. The time prior to that that receipts turned negative: July of 2008.

The “peak receipts” of the US government are visible in the next chart, which show that after several years of relatively flat government receipts, the new trendline is increasingly lower.

And while one could argue that the collapse in receipts is due to a 19% plunge in corporate income tax in the current fiscal year compared to last, which is indeed the case, it is just as concerning that Individual Income Taxes also posted a decline, dropping 3% to $372.8BN for the current fiscal year from $386.4BN in the prior period. The offset: an increase in Social Insurance and retirement receipts, higher excise taxes, and of course, a 90% surge in customs duties to $18 billion as a result of the ongoing trade war with China (ironically, if Trump ends the trade war with China soon, this biggest increase in government receipts will promptly go away, further exacerbating the US fiscal picture).

This also begs the question what are real corporate earnings? While we hear that EPS are rising, it appears that at least for IRS purposes, corporate America is already in a corporate recession.

It is also worth noting that while receipts are now declining, government outlays are rampaging higher, with the US government spending $1.09 trillion in the current fiscal year, almost $100 billion higher than the $994 billion spent in fiscal 2018.

Finally, as we showed in the top chart, virtually every time when cumulative 12 month governmental receipts dipped into the red, the US economy suffered a recession, with just two exceptions in the past 50 years, the last being just after the Trump election. Can the president defy history twice in a row and avoid an economic contraction with receipts dipping negative for a second time in his administration?

 END
Is this a sign of a healthy economy? Rats galore and open drug use etc
(courtesy Michael Snyder)

Rats, Public Defecation, & Open Drug Use: Our Major Western Cities Are Becoming Uninhabitable Hellholes

Authored by Michael Snyder via The End of The American Dream blog,

Almost everyone that goes out to visit one of our major cities on the west coast has a similar reaction. 

Those that must live among the escalating decay are often numb to it, but most of those that are just in town for a visit are absolutely shocked by all of the trash, human defecation, crime and public drug use that they encounter.  Once upon a time, our beautiful western cities were the envy of the rest of the world, but now they serve as shining examples of America’s accelerating decline.  The worst parts of our major western cities literally look like post-apocalyptic wastelands, and the hordes of zombified homeless people that live in those areas are too drugged-out to care.  The ironic thing is that these cities are not poor.  In fact, San Francisco and Seattle are among the wealthiest cities in the entire nation.  So if things are falling apart this dramatically now, how bad will things get when economic conditions really start to deteriorate?

Let’s start our discussion by looking at the rat epidemic in Los Angeles.  Thanks to extremely poor public sanitation, rats are breeding like mad, and at this point they have even conquered Los Angeles City Hall

Officials at Los Angeles’ City Hall are considering ripping all of the building’s carpets up, as rats and fleas are said to be running riot in its halls.

A motion was filed by Council President Herb Wesson on Wednesday to enact the much needed makeover amid a typhus outbreak in the downtown area.

Wesson said a city employee had contracted the deadly bacterial disease at work, and now he’s urging officials to investigate the ‘scope’ of the long-running pest problem at the council building.

People from all over the world are drawn to Los Angeles because of what they have seen on television, but it is truly a filthy, filthy place.  The number of homeless has been rising about 20 percent a year, public drug use is seemingly everywhere, and there are mountains of trash all over the place.  Needless to say, rats thrive in such an environment, and the epic battle that one L.A. journalist is having with rats was recently featured in the L.A. Times

Eastside, Westside, north and south, they’re everywhere. If you’re a rat, the California housing crisis has not hit you yet and it never will.

At our house, it sounded like the rats were having relay races in the ceiling, and they don’t wear sneakers. Your eyes blink and your leg twitches as you drift off to sleep knowing that if the plague comes back, you are living at ground zero.

In our garden, they devoured entire heads of lettuce. They destroyed my squash just before it was ripe and ready to eat. They stole my tomatoes, cilantro and Anaheim chili peppers. Were they bottling their own salsa?

But let’s not be too hard on Los Angeles, because the same things that are going on there are happening in major cities all over the western portion of the country.

For example, a massive rat infestation recently forced authorities to close a shockingly filthy homeless encampment under a bridge in Salem, Oregon

Amid the trash, human despair and anguish, one weeping woman prepared to leave the most recent place she knows as home without any real inkling of where she’ll go next.

Terry Balow, an outreach worker with the Salvation Army, has been here for the darker moments of living life under a bridge — anger, mental illness, drug use and human frustration boiling over at times everywhere one looks.

Yet it was a rat infestation and concern about human health that prompted the city of Salem to move the campers out.

“It just grew and grew and got worse,” Balow said. “It’s badder than people can imagine.”

Yes, there have always been homeless encampments in this country, but in modern times we have never faced anything on the scale that we are facing now.

More than half a million Americans are homeless right now, and that number continues to grow.  And as it grows, communities will increasingly be forced to make some tough decisions.

I am quite eager to talk about San Francisco, but before we get to the City by the Bay, let’s take note of something that just happened in Denver.

If you are into public defecation, you will be very happy to learn that Denver just made it legal

First, the obvious: The Denver City Council has voted unanimously to decriminalize a number of offenses, including defecating in public. Also, urinating in public. Camping on public or private land without permission. Panhandling. And lying across public rights-of-way, such as sidewalks.

Democrat Mayor Michael Hancock and city officials explained the new ordinances are designed to protect immigrants — legal and the other kind — from “unintended consequences.” These consequences were fines and longer jail terms, as has been customary in most places for violating the behavioral norms of civilized American society.

If only America’s founders could see us now.

They would be so proud.

Speaking of public defecation, San Francisco has become world famous for the piles of human poop that constantly litter their streets.  During one seven day stretch last summer, a total of 16,000 official complaints were submitted to the city about human feces.

Blessed with such beautiful natural surroundings and so much wealth, San Francisco should be a great place to visit, but that definitely is not the case.

When reporter John Stossel recently visited San Francisco, he was stunned by what he found

San Francisco is a pretty good place to “hang out with a sign.” People are rarely arrested for vagrancy, aggressive panhandling or going to the bathroom in front of people’s homes. In 2015, there were 60,491 complaints to police, but only 125 people were arrested.

Public drug use is generally ignored. One woman told us, “It’s nasty seeing people shoot up — right in front of you. Police don’t do anything about it! They’ll get somebody for drinking a beer but walk right past people using needles.”

In San Francisco they actually give out free syringes to drug addicts, and it is being reported that they handed out a total of 5.8 million free syringes in 2018.

That is a lot of syringes.

They also try to get the syringes back in order to prevent the spread of disease, but that hasn’t been too successful

There’s just one problem – well, more than one – despite spending an extra $1.8 million last year in an effort to retrieve needles, the San Francisco Chronicle reports that the department handed out about 2 million more syringes than it got back… many of which are now washing around the streets of one of the richest cities in America (along with the feces of their users).

And with so much public drug use going on, it should be no surprise that crime is completely and totally out of control.  Here is more from John Stossel

Each day in San Francisco, an average of 85 cars are broken into.

“Inside Edition” ran a test to see how long stereo equipment would last in a parked car. Their test car was quickly broken into. Then the camera crew discovered that their own car had been busted into as well.

It has been said that “as goes California, so goes the country”, and if this is where the rest of the nation is headed then we are in serious trouble.

When Bill Blain recently visited San Francisco, he was so horrified by what he encountered that he felt he must write about it

I hope my American hosts will forgive me for raising this, but the squalor we saw in The City was frightful. San Francisco has always been one of favourite US cities, but the degree of homelessness, mental illness and drug abuse we saw on this trip was truly shocking. Walking round SF on a Sunday Morning and we saw sights we couldn’t believe. This must be one of the richest cities in the world – home to 4 of the 10 richest people on the planet according to Wiki. I asked friends about it, and they shrugged it off.. “The City has always attracted the homeless because of the mild weather,”.. “It’s a drug thing”.. “its too difficult”… “you get used to it..”

Well, I didn’t.

I found it quite shocking the number of folk sleeping rough on the sidewalks, the smell of weed and drug impedimenta everywhere, the filth, mental illness and degradation on view just a few meters from the financial centre driving Silicon Valley. It’s a city where the destitute seem to have become invisible to the Uber hailing elites. We found ourselves hopping on one of the beautiful F-Route Trolley Buses to find nearly every seat occupied by someone lugging around their worldly possessions around in a plastic bag. It was desperately sad.

San Francisco has a new mayor, and they are going to spend millions upon millions of dollars to try to clean up the streets.

But it won’t be easy to turn things around, because more drug users and homeless people are moving into the city every single day

And San Francisco is generous. It offers street people food stamps, free shelter, train tickets and $70 a month in cash.

“They’re always offering resources,” one man dressed as Santa told us. “San Francisco’s just a good place to hang out.”

So, every week, new people arrive.

We like to think that we are setting a positive example to the rest of the world, but the truth is that they are laughing at us.

America is in an advanced state of decay, and it is getting worse with each passing year.

If we keep doing the same things we will keep getting the same results, and right now there are no signs that the overall direction of this nation will change any time soon.

.

iv)SWAMP STORIES

For those of you who thought that the collusion case will end things, guess again:the Democrats are set to launch a vast new Russia probe and money laundering scheme via Deutsche bank.  We highlighted to you  a few months back that this was possible and I guess we were right

(courtesy zerohedge)

After Collusion Case Collapses, House Dems Set To Launch “Vast” Russia Probe 2.0

Barely a day has passed since Richard Burr signaled that the Senate Intelligence Committee’s investigation into allegations of collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia had turned up nothing substantive – and certainly not a “contract signed in blood” declaring “hey Vlad, we’re going to collude”.

And already, more details are leaking out about the Democrats’ plans to launch a wide ranging investigation that not only will re-litigate the collusion narrative, but will also reportedly focus on allegations of money laundering and other financial improprieties.

Trump

Mueller is just the beginning. House Democrats plan a vast probe of President Trump and Russia — with a heavy focus on money laundering — that will include multiple committees and dramatic public hearings, and could last into 2020.

Here’s more from Axios:

The state of play: The aggressive plans were outlined yesterday by a Democratic member of Congress at a roundtable for Washington reporters. The member said Congress plans interviews with new witnesses, and may go back to earlier witnesses who “stonewalled” under the Republican majority.

Why it matters: The reporters, many of them steeped in the special counsel’s investigation, came away realizing that House Dems don’t plan to depend on Robert Mueller for the last word on interference in the 2016 election.

Instead, Dems will use their new subpoena power to produce a voluminous exposé of their own.

The investigation will involve multiple committees, and by all accounts be far more critical than the House probe that ended last year.

At least three committees are already involved: The House Intelligence Committee is taking the lead, coordinating with House Financial Services on money-laundering questions and with House Foreign Affairs on Russia.

Democrats are considering ways to uncover what was said in a Trump private meeting with Putin, “whether that’s subpoenaing the notes or subpoenaing the interpreter or other steps.”

On the issue of Trump family finances, the president said he’s “not in a position to draw red lines.”

“I am concerned that he may have drawn a red line that the Department of Justice may be observing.”

“If we didn’t look at his business…we wouldn’t know what we know now about his efforts to pursue what may have been the most lucrative deal of his life, the Trump Tower in Moscow – something the special counsel’s office has said stood to earn the family hundreds of millions of dollars.”

“Now, most of his stuff isn’t building anymore: It’s licensing, and it doesn’t make that kind of money. So, this would have been huge.”

“[T]he fact that the president says now: ‘Well, it’s not illegal and I might have lost the election. Why should I miss out, basically, on all that money?’ He may very well take the same position now: ‘I might not be re-elected, and so why shouldn’t I…still pursue it?'”

Of course, none of this should come as a surprise: Maxine Waters and Adam Schiff (who are two prime candidates for the source of the latest round of leaks) have made no secret of their plans to subpoena Deutsche Bank to learn more about its lending relationship with the president. And as Dems prepare to let the subpoeanas fly, we imagine we’ll be learning more in the near future.

END

Follow the dots and you can then see why the uSA government is nothing but swampland

(special thanks to Robert H for sending this

Wow – The Ultimate Dot Connector…A Shocker
Comey, Clinton, Rosenstein, Mueller And…

2-12-19
ALL DOTS CONNECTED…

Let’s follow the trail…..  Everyone needs to read this. Slowly, and patiently, because it’s very important…..
Here’s what it looks like when all the pieces are sewn together. It smells like conspiracy and treason.

From 2001 to 2005 there was an ongoing investigation into the Clinton Foundation.

A Grand Jury had been impaneled.

Governments from around the world had donated to the “Charity”.

Yet, from 2001 to 2003 none of those “Donations” to the Clinton Foundation were declared.

Hmmm, now you would think that an honest investigator would be able to figure this out.

Guess who took over this investigation in 2002?

Bet you can’t guess.

None other than James Comey.

Now, that’s interesting, isn’t it?

Guess who was transferred in to the Internal Revenue Service to run the Tax Exemption Branch of the IRS?

Your friend and mine, Lois “Be on The Look Out” (BOLO) Lerner.

Now, that’s interesting, isn’t it?

It gets better, well not really, but this is all just a series of strange coincidences, right?

Guess who ran the Tax Division inside the Department of Injustice from 2001 to 2005?

No other than the Assistant Attorney General of the United States, Rod Rosenstein.

Now, that’s interesting, isn’t it?

Guess who was the Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation during this time frame?

I know, it’s a miracle, just a coincidence, just an anomaly in statistics and chances, but it was Robert Mueller.

What do all four casting characters have in common?

They all were briefed and/or were front line investigators into the Clinton Foundation Investigation.

Now that’s just a coincidence, right?

Ok, lets chalk the last one up to mere chance.

Let’s fast forward to 2009…..

James Comey leaves the Justice Department to go and cash-in at Lockheed Martin.

Hillary Clinton is running the State Department, on her own personal email server, by the way.

The Uranium One “issue” comes to the attention of Hillary.

Like all good public servants do, you know – looking out for America’s best interest, she decides to support the decision and approve the sale of 20% of US Uranium to no other than, the Russians.

Now, you would think that this is a fairly straight-up deal, except that it wasn’t: The People got absolutely nothing out of it.

However, prior to the sales approval, no other than Bill Clinton goes to Moscow, gets paid 500K for a one hour speech, then meets with Vladimir Putin at his home for a few hours.

Ok, no big deal right?

Well, not so fast: the FBI had a mole inside the money laundering and bribery scheme.

Guess who was the FBI Director during this time?

Yep, Robert Mueller.

He even delivered a Uranium Sample to Moscow in 2009.

Guess who was handling that case within the Justice Department out of the US Attorney’s Office in Maryland?

No other than, Rod Rosenstein.

Guess what happened to the informant?

The Department of Justice placed a GAG order on him and threatened to lock him up if he spoke out about it.

How does 20% of the most strategic asset of the United States of America end up in Russian hands when the FBI has an informant, a mole, providing inside information to the FBI on the criminal enterprise?

Guess what happened soon after the sale was approved?

~145 million dollars in “donations” made their way into the Clinton Foundation from entities directly connected to the Uranium One deal.

Guess who was still at the Internal Revenue Service working the Charitable Division?

No other than, Lois Lerner.

Ok, that’s all just another series of coincidences.  Nothing to see here, right?

Let’s fast forward to 2015.

Due to a series of tragic events in Benghazi and after the 9 “investigations” the House, Senate and at State Department, Trey Gowdy who was running the 10th investigation as Chairman of the Select Committee on Benghazi discovers that The Hillary ran the State Department on an unclassified, unauthorized, outlaw personal email server.

He also discovered that none of those emails had been turned over when she departed her “Public Service” as Secretary of State which was required by law.

He also discovered that there was Top Secret information contained within her personally archived email. ( Let’s not forget  – at least 10 CIA spies in china were killed by the Chinese because of the leaks, and god knows what else occurred )

Sparing you the State Departments cover up, the nostrums they floated, the delay tactics that were employed and the outright lies that were spewed forth from the necks of the Kerry State Department, we shall leave it with this….. they did everything humanly possible to cover for Hillary.

Now this is amazing:  guess who became FBI Director in 2013?

Guess who secured 17 no-bid contracts for his employer (Lockheed Martin) with the State Department and was rewarded with a six million dollar thank you present when he departed his employer?

No other than James Comey.

Amazing how all those no-bids just went right through at State, huh?

Now he is the FBI Director in charge of the “Clinton Email Investigation” after of course his FBI Investigates the Lois Lerner “Matter” at the Internal Revenue Service and exonerates her.

Nope… couldn’t find any crimes there.

Can you guess what happened next?

In April 2016, James Comey drafts an exoneration letter of Hillary Rodham Clinton, meanwhile the DOJ is handing out immunity deals like candy.

They didn’t even convene a Grand Jury.

Like a lightning bolt of statistical impossibility, like a miracle from God himself, like the true “Gangsta” Comey is, James steps out into the cameras of an awaiting press conference on July the 5th of 2016, and exonerates The Hillary from any wrongdoing.

Can you see the pattern?

It goes on and on, Rosenstein becomes Asst. Attorney General, Comey gets fired based upon a letter by Rosenstein, Comey leaks government information to the press, Mueller is assigned to the Russian Investigation sham by Rosenstein to provide cover for decades of malfeasance within the FBI and DOJ and the story continues.

FISA Abuse, political espionage… pick a crime, any crime, chances are….. this group and a few others did it.

All the same players.

All compromised and conflicted.

All working fervently to NOT go to jail themselves.

All connected in one way or another to the Clintons.

They are like battery acid, they corrode and corrupt everything they touch.

How many lives have these two destroyed?

As of this writing, the Clinton Foundation, in its 20+ years of operation of being the largest International Charity Fraud in the history of mankind, has never been audited by the Internal Revenue Service.

Let us not forget that Comey’s brother works for DLA Piper, the law firm that does the Clinton Foundation’s taxes.

And see, the person that is the common denominator to all the crimes above and still doing her evil escape legal maneuvers at the top of the 3 Letter USA Agencies?   Yep, that would be Hillary R. Clinton!

WHO IS LISA BARSOOMIAN?

Let’s learn a little about Mrs. Lisa H. Barsoomian’s background.

Lisa H. Barsoomian, a US Attorney that graduated from Georgetown Law, is a protege of James Comey and Robert Mueller.

Barsoomian, with her boss R. Craig Lawrence, represented Bill Clinton in 1998.

Lawrence also represented:

Robert Mueller three times;

James Comey five times;

Barack Obama 45 times;

Kathleen Sebelius 56 times;

Bill Clinton 40 times; and

Hillary Clinton 17 times.

Between 1998 and 2017, Barsoomian herself represented the FBI at least five times.

You may be saying to yourself, OK, who cares? Who cares about the work history of this Barsoomian woman?

Apparently someone does, because someone out there cares so much that they’ve “purged” all Barsoomian court documents for her Clinton representation in Hamburg vs. Clinton in 1998 and its appeal in 1999 from the DC District and Appeals Court dockets (?).

Someone out there cares so much that the internet has been “purged” of all information pertaining to Barsoomian.

Historically, this indicates that the individual is a protected CIA operative. Additionally, Lisa Barsoomian has specialized in opposing Freedom of Information Act requests on behalf of the intelligence community. And, although Barsoomian has been involved in hundreds of cases representing the DC Office of the US Attorney, her email address is Lisa Barsoomian at NIH gov. The NIH stands for National Institutes of Health.

This is a tactic routinely used by the CIA to protect an operative by using another government organization to shield their activities.

It’s a cover, so big deal, right? I mean what does one more attorney with ties to the US intelligence community really matter?

It deals with Trump and his recent tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminum imports, the border wall, DACA, everything coming out of California, the Uni-party unrelenting opposition to President Trump, the Clapper leaks, the Comey leaks, Attorney General Jeff Sessions recusal and subsequent 14 month nap with occasional forays into the marijuana legalization mix … and last but not least Mueller’s never-ending investigation into collusion between the Trump team and the Russians.

Why does Barsoomian, CIA operative, merit any mention?

BECAUSE…

She is Assistant Attorney General Rod Rosenstein’s WIFE…That’s why!!

GET THIS INFORMATION OUT TO EVERYONE YOU CAN.

Jaw dropping, shocking and extremely sad that this info has never been exposed-

DO YOUR PART IN PLASTERING THIS INFORMATION EVERYWHERE … it’s bullet proof and cannot be blown off by leftists … and will convince many not paying attention that we have a soft coup happening now..

 

SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT
and special thanks to Chris Powell of GATA for sending this down for us:

Trump Said to Be Undecided on Congress’s Tentative Border Accord

The tentative pact reached Monday night provides $1.375 billion for 55 new miles of border fencing in Texas’s Rio Grande Valley area… That’s far short of the $5.7 billion Trump wants for a wall. But the agreement also rejects limits Democrats sought on detentions of immigrants apprehended in the U.S…

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-12/tentative-border-deal-in-congress-leaves-shutdown-up-to-trump

@politico: Trump said he’s “not happy” about the border deal Congress reached, but added that he’s happy about “where we’re going.” “We’re building in the face of tremendous obstruction and tremendous opposition from a small group of people…”

The ‘deal’ is the usual capitulation by Establishment Republicans.  If we were Trump, we’d take the deal and then sent the Army to build the entire border barrier in the near future.

@IngrahamAngle: Trump is not only fighting Democrats, he’s also fighting the Republicans on immigration. This is a cram-though and pushed by mostly Never Trump crowd.

@AnnCoulter: Trump talks a good game on the border wall but it’s increasingly clear he’s afraid to fight for it.  Call this his “Yellow New Deal.”

Poll: Voters View Border Security as “Vital” to National Security, Rate on Par With North Korea

59% say border security is a “vital national security interest for the United States,” while just 33% disagree…  https://www.peoplespunditdaily.com/polls/2019/02/12/voters-view-border-security-vital-national-security-rate-on-par-with-north-korea/

Freedom Caucus leader @RepMarkMeadows: This conference agreement is hardly a serious attempt to secure our border or stop the flow of illegal immigration. It kicks the can down the road yet again, failing to address the critical priorities outlined by Border Patrol Chiefs.

Rep. Jim Jordan @Jim_Jordan: While the President was giving a great speech in El Paso, Congress was putting together a bad deal on immigration.

OAN’s @RyanGirdusky: Is Trump aware that Jared Kushner has regularly been meeting with the Koch Brothers’ people about getting through an amnesty and expanding legal immigration?

State of Texas Considers Building Its Own Border Wall

Two members of the Texas House of Representatives are preparing a bill that would provide $2.5 billion to fund a border wall. The proposal would take the money from Texas’ “Rainy Day Fund.”…

https://www.breitbart.com/border/2019/02/12/state-of-texas-considers-building-its-own-border-wall/

Despite the uncertainty surrounding the border ‘deal’, ESHs and stocks surged.  Obviously, expiration upward bias is the reason for the robust rally.  The flimsy ‘deal’ presented the usual suspects with the cover, or the excuse, to orchestrate the usual expiry manipulation.

A second rally thrust appeared just after the beginning of the second hour of trading on this story:

Fed to finalize plans to end balance sheet runoff ‘at coming meetings’: Mester

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-mester/fed-to-finalize-plans-to-end-balance-sheet-runoff-at-coming-meetings-mester-idUSKCN1Q12TY

Early last night @realDonaldTrump: Was just presented the concept and parameters of the Border Security Deal by hard working Senator Richard Shelby.  Looking over all aspects knowing that this will be hooked up with lots of money from other sources…. Will be getting almost $23 BILLION for Border Security[NB: not necessary for a ‘wall’] Regardless of Wall money, it is being built as we speak!

Former Trump lawyer slams Mueller probe, maintains president will be cleared: ‘Knock it off and get it done’ – “I know exactly what [Mueller] has,” Dowd said. “I know exactly what every witness said, what every document said. I know exactly what he asked. And I know what the conclusion or the result is,” he said…

    Dowd said that at one point after Comey appeared before Congress, he wrote to Rosenstein to ask for the Justice Department to investigate whether the former FBI director lied in his testimony.  “He blew me off,” Dowd said. “That’s not leadership. That’s not accountability. … We did it in writing. We did it politely. We did it confidentially. And he just blew us off. So, I lost all respect for Rod Rosenstein.”

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-lawyer-slams-mueller-probe-maintains-president-cleared/story?id=60967234

 

Dowd claims that on March 5, 2018 Mueller told him that Trump “did not have any exposure, that he was a witness subject” but due to political and MSM pressure, he perpetrated the charade.

Full transcript: https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/transcript-trump-attorney-john-dowds-interview-abc-news/story?id=61008948

 

Perhaps this is why Dowd left Trump’s legal team on March 8, 2019.


Senate leader McConnell (R-KY) is forcing the Senate to vote on AOC’s whacky New Green Deal.  Mitch admitted that he wants Senators on the record (for 2020) as to their support for such socialism.

 

I’ve noted with great interest the Green New Deal, and we’re going to be voting on that in the Senate, give everybody an opportunity to go on record and see how they feel about the Green New Deal,” McConnell said…   https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-climate-greennewdeal-idUSKCN1Q12EM

 

Ladies and gentlemen, the MSM’s favorite 2020 presidential candidate, Kamala Harris!

 

Kamala Harris’ weed-toking college playlist goes up in smoke

Sen. Kamala Harris got rapped for getting her rap eras mixed up when she told radio interviewers that she listened to Snoop Dogg and Tupac Shakur while smoking pot in college — even though she graduated in 1986, years before they hit the scene

https://nypost.com/2019/02/12/kamala-harris-weed-toking-college-playlist-goes-up-in-smoke/

 

[Dem prez candidate] Cory Booker: ‘This Planet Simply Can’t Sustain’ People Eating Meat

Democrat 2020 hopeful is vegan because eating eggs ‘didn’t align with my spirit’

   Booker, who said his vegan “journey” began in 1992 when he became a vegetarian after reading Gandhi’s biography, wants to make the “existing model” of the food industry “obsolete.”…

https://freebeacon.com/politics/cory-booker-this-planet-simply-cant-sustain-people-eating-meat/

 

-END-

I WILL SEE YOU THURSDAY NIGHT
HARVEY