December 19, 2022 · by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit
GOLD PRICE CLOSE: DOWN $2.10 at $1788.55
SILVER PRICE CLOSE: DOWN 13 CENTS to $23.00
Access prices: closes : 4: 15 PM
Gold ACCESS CLOSE 1787.25
Silver ACCESS CLOSE: 22.96
Bitcoin morning price:, 17,019 DOWN 0 DOLLARS
Bitcoin: afternoon price: $17,019 DOWN 0 dollars
Platinum price closing $985.70 DOWN $10.55
Palladium price; closing 1677.05 DOWN $51.75
END
Due to the huge rise in the dollar, we must look at gold and silver in currencies other than the dollar to understand where we are heading
I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros/4: 15 PM ACCESS
CANADIAN GOLD: $2439.88 DOWN $12.37 CDN dollars per oz
BRITISH GOLD: 1471.43 DOWN 4.022 pounds per oz
EURO GOLD: 1685,03 DOWN 8,058 euros per oz
EXCHANGE: COMEX
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: DECEMBER 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,790.000000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 12/16/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 12/20/2022
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 81
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 22
661 C JP MORGAN 59
TOTAL: 81 81
MONTH TO DATE: 20,173
COMEX//NOTICES FILED re JPMorgan 59/81
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GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR DEC. CONTRACT: 81 NOTICES FOR 8100 OZ or .2519 TONNES
total notices so far: 20,173 contracts for 2,017,300 oz (62.747 tonnes)
SILVER NOTICES: 44 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 220,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month 3609 for 18,045,000 oz
END
GLD
WITH GOLD DOWN $2.10
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: /////HUGE CHANGES IN GLD INVENTORY:A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.41 TONNES TONNES OUT OF THE GLD
INVENTORY RESTS AT 910.41 TONNES
Silver//SLV
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS
AT THE SLV// :/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV THESE PAST 3 WEEKS! A DEPOSIT OF 1.05 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV
CLOSING INVENTORY: 509.20 MILLION OZ (THIS IS ALSO A CRIME SCENE@!!!!
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 298 CONTRACTS TO 124,031 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR SMALL $0.02 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON FRIDAY. OUR SHORTERS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.02 BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPEC LONGS, AS WE HAD AN HUGE SIZED GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1232 CONTRACTS. AS WELL WE HAD EXCHANGE FOR RISK TRANSFER OF 0 CONTRACTS. WE HAD VERY LITTLE SPEC SHORT COVERINGS OF THEIR SHORTFALL. .WE PROBABLY HAD SMALL SHORT ADDITIONS WITH THE SMALL PRICE RISE OF THE SILVER. // OUR BANKERS CONTINUE TO BE PURCHASERS OF NET COMEX LONGS. BUT THEY ALSO SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT CONTRACTS>>> SOME INCREASE OF NEWBIE SPEC LONGS ADDING TO THEIR POSITIONS CAUSING ADDITIONAL MISERY TO OUR SHORTERS.
WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 23 .24. MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY;S QUEUE. JUMP of 20,000 OZ // V) SMALL SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL —45
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS DEC. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF DEC:
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 15 days, total 8353 contracts: OR 41.765 MILLION OZ PER DAY. (556 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 41.765 MILLION OZ
.
LAST 17 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH: 207.430 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 41.765 MILLION OZ INITIAL( VERY SMALL)
RESULT: WE HAD A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 298 WITH OUR $0.02 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// FRIDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 889 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR MAR AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR DEC OF 23.24 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY:S 20,000 QUEUE. JUMP //NEW STANDING 23.390 MILLION OZ + EFR = 33.890 MILLION OZ. .. WE HAVE AN HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 1232 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 6.160 MILLION OZ.. THE SILVER SHORTS ARE NOW TRAPPED AS THEY ARE HAVING CONSIDERABLE DIFFICULTY IN COVERING THOSE SHORTS.
WE HAD 44 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 220,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 1499 CONTRACTS TO 424,625 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: removed 184 CONTRACTS.
.
THE HUGE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI CAME WITH OUR STRONG LOSS IN PRICE. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR DEC. AT 58.86 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY:S HUGE EFP JUMP TO LONDON of 30 contracts or 3,000 oz//(QUEUE JUMPING = EXERCISING LONDON BASED EFP’S WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MONTH’S END) (EFP is the transfer of contracts immediately to London for potential gold deliveries originating from London). NEW STANDING 63.576 TONNES
YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN PRICE OF $12.45 WITH RESPECT TO FRISDAY’S TRADING
WE HAD A SMALL SIZED LOSS OF 761 OI CONTRACTS (2.367 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 3011 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 424,809
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 761 CONTRACTS WITH 1499 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 738 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 577 CONTRACTS OR 1.795 TONNES.
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (738 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (1499) TOTAL LOSS IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 761 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS // CONTINUED GOOD BANKER ADDITIONS BUT THEY ALSO SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY PAPER SHORT. WE HAD FEW SHORT SPEC ADDITIONS/// // GOOD NEWBIE SPEC ADDITIONS ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DEC. AT 58.86 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S E.F.P. JUMP TO LONDON of 3,000 oz// //NEW STANDING 63.576 TONNES///3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION //.,4) FAIR SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS 5) SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER/
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY
DEC
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF DEC :
33,135 CONTRACTS OR 3,313,500 OZ OR 103.06 TONNES 15 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2209 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 15 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES:103.06 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2021, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 103.06/3550 x 100% TONNES 2.90% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2022
JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)
FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..
MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/
APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)
MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)
JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)
JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH: 409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247,44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 103.06 tonnes Initial//VERY SMALL
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW NON ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF NOV. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF BOTH SILVER AND GOLD (WILL BE SMALL AS SPREADERS DO NOT PAY ATTENTION TO NOVEMBER)
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT HEADING TOWARDS THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV., FOR BOTH GOLD AND SILVER:
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (NOV), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 298 CONTRACTS OI TO 124,031 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO.
EFP ISSUANCE 889 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
MAR 889 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 889 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 298 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 889 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN AN HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 1187 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 5.935 MILLION OZ//
OCCURRED WITH OUR SMALL GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.02….. OUR SPEC SHORTS HAVE NOWHERE TO HIDE!
OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY
1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,
(Peter Schiff,
end
3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,
4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
end
5. Other gold/silver commentaries
6. Commodity commentaries//
7/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
3. ASIAN AFFAIRS
i)MONDAY MORNING//SUNDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 60.74 PTS OR 1.92% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 97.86 OR 0.53% /The Nikkei closed DOWN 289.43 OR 1.05% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.21% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP TO 6.9738//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP TO 6.9726// /Oil UP TO 75.14 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 79.63 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN. ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER
a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 C CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A VERY SMALL SIZED 1499 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 424,625 DESPITE OUR THE GAIN IN PRICE $12.45
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE -ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF DEC… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A SMALL SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 738 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: ;: , . 0 FEB: 738 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:738 CONTRACTS
WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION, EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A SMALL SIZED TOTAL OF 761 CONTRACTS IN THAT 738 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A SMALL SIZED COMEX OI LOSS OF 1,499 CONTRACTS..AND THIS SMALL SIZED LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF GOLD $12.45. WE ARE WITNESSING FEW SPEC SHORTS ADDITIONS TO THEIR SHORTFALL. BANKERS CONTINUE AS NET BUYERS OF COMEX GOLD CONTRACTS AS THEY HAVE BEEN NET LONG FOR THE PAST FEW MONTHS. WE ALSO HAD STRONG NEWBIE SPECS ADDITIONS.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING DEC (63.626)
TONNES),
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL (TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR 591.535 TONNES)
Dec. 63.626 tonnes
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE BY $12.45) //// ( BUT WERE SOMEWHAT SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING SOME SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A STRONG LOSS OF 7577 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES >. WE HAD A FEW NUMBER OF NEW SPEC SHORT ADDITIONS AND SOME SPEC SHORT COVERINGS.. // WE HAVE LOST A TOTAL OI OF 2.367 PAPER TONNES OF TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR DEC. (54.57 TONNES), following our EFP jump of 3,000 oz//new standing lowers to 63.576 tonnes…THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $12.45
WE HAD – 184 CONTRACTS COMEX TRADES REMOVED FROM OPEN INTEREST AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT
NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 761 CONTRACTS OR 76100 OZ OR 2.367 TONNES
Estimated gold volume 82,968// awful//
final gold volumes/yesterday 133,685/ poor
INITIAL STANDINGS FOR DECEMBER 2022 COMEX GOLD //DEC 19
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | 14,371.002 oz brinks manfra includes 192 kilobars . |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | nil oz |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | nil oz |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 81 notice(s) 8100 OZ 0.2519 TONNES |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 267 contracts 26,700 oz 0.8304 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 20,173 notices 2,017,300 62.797 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month | xxx oz |
i)Dealer deposits: 0
total dealer deposit: nil oz
No dealer withdrawals
Customer deposits: 0
customer withdrawals: 2
i) Out of Brinks: 8198.01 oz
ii) Out of Manfra: 6172.892 oz (192 kilobars)
Total withdrawals: 14,371.002 oz
total in tonnes: .446 tonnes
Adjustments: 2 dealer to customer account
a) Delaware; 1598.380 oz
b) Manfra 35,398.250 oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DECEMBER.
For the front month of DECEMBER we have an oi of 348 contracts having LOST 387 contracts
We had 351 contracts served on Friday, so we LOST 30 contracts or an additional 3000 oz will NOT stand for gold at the COMEX. These guys were EFP’d to London as the boys could not find any gold to serve upon.
JANUARY GAINED 38 contracts to stand at 1260
February LOST 2371 contacts to 360,138
We had 81 notice(s) filed today for 81,000 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 81 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 59 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the DEC. /2022. contract month,
we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (20,173 x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of (DEC. 343 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 81 x 100 oz per contract equals 2,0440,000 OZ OR 63.576 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this active month of DEC.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the DEC contract month:
No of notices filed so far (20,173 x 100 oz+ (343 OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (81} x 100 oz} which equals 2,044,000 oz standing OR 63.576 TONNES in this active delivery month of DEC..
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 63.576 TONNES (A POOR STANDING//COMEX RUNNING OUT OF PHYSICAL TO SERVE UPON OUR LONGS.
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
we had one adjustment of 110,631.591 oz Brinks
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 o
total pledged gold: 2,062,155.871 OZ 64,14 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED: 23,282,012,401 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD: 11,678,473.421 OZ (363,249 tonnes)..dropping fast
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 11,603,538,98 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 9,616,318 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 299.10 tonnes//rapidly declining
END
SILVER/COMEX
DEC 19//INITIAL DEC. SILVER CONTRACT
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 63,721100 oz JPMorgan |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | 1,435,797.830 OZ loomis |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | 412,864.840 oz loomis |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 44 CONTRACT(S) (220,000 OZ) |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 1069 contracts (5,345,000 oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 3609 contracts (18,045,000 oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
i) 1 dealer deposit
i) Into Loomis: 1,435,798.830 oz
total dealer deposits: 1,435,798.830 oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: oz
We have 1 deposits into the customer account
i) Into loomis: 412,864.840 oz
Total deposits: 412,864.840 oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 149.622 million oz/299.682 million =49.92% of comex .//dropping fast
Comex withdrawals:1
i) Out of JPMorgan: 63,721.100 oz
Total withdrawals; 63,721.100 oz
adjustments: 1
customer to dealer: Delaware 19,344.352 oz
the silver comex is in stress!
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 35.127 MILLION OZ (declining rapidly).TOTAL REG + ELIG. 299.692MILLION OZ (also declining)
CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR SEPT
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF DEC OI: 1113 CONTRACTS HAVING GAINED 3 CONTRACT(S.)
WE HAD 1 NOTICE FILED ON FRIDAY. SO WE GAINED 4 CONTRACTS OR 20,000 oz
AS AN QUEUE JUMP
JANUARY SAW A LOSS OF 5 CONTRACTS LOWERING TO 1577 CONTACTS.
FEB> GAINED 32 CONTRACTS TO 146 CONTRACTS
March GAINED 235 contracts UP to 108,682 contracts
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 44 for 220,000 oz
Comex volumes// est. volume today 48,474// fair
Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 64,120 contracts ( fair)
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in DEC. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 3609 x 5,000 oz = 18,045,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of DEC(1113) and the number of notices served upon today 44 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the DEC./2022 contract month: 3609 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of DEC (1113 – number of notices served upon today (44) x 500 oz of silver standing for the DEC. contract month equates 23.390 million oz.. Also we have another criminal element to our silver oz standing, the use of Exchange for Risk/ Today an addition of 0 EFR contract transfers which are “Exchange for risk” settlements. I do not want to bore you but needless to say they are not physical transfers so are criminal in nature. There have been 2100 Exchange for Risk contracts settled these past 8 days for 10.500 million oz. Thus total delivery: 33.890 million oz.
the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
Comex volumes:32,326// est. volume today// awful
Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 52,754 contracts ( poor)
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS
DEC 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.10: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD> A BIG WITHDRAWAL OF 3.47 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 910.41 TONNES
DEC 16/WITH GOLD UP $12.45: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.32 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.88 TONNES
DEC 15//WITH GOLD DOWN $31.00: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 911.56 TONNES
DEC 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.20: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.32 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.72 TONNES
DEC 13/WITH GOLD UP $32.75: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.32 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 910.41
DEC 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.60: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.09 TONNES
DEC 9/WITH GOLD UP $8.90//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.09 TONNES
Dec 8/WITH GOLD UP $4.05, OVER THE PAST 3 WEEKS WE LOST 2.04 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.09 TONNES
NOV 14/WITH GOLD UP $7.30: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 910.12 TONNES
NOV 11/WITH GOLD UP $15.25//BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.19 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 911.57 TONNES
NOV 10/WITH GOLD UP $40.75: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.38 TONNES
NOV 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.89 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.38 TONNES
NOV 8/WITH GOLD UP $34.40: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES FROM THE GLD//: INVENTORY RESTS AT 905.49 TONNES
NOV 7/WITH GOLD UP $2.95: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.63 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 906.96. TONNES
NOV 4/WITH GOLD UP $44.45 TO $1673.30: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.48 TONNES FROMTHE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 911.59 TONNES.
NOV 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $18.30 TO $1628.85: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.05 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.07 TONNES
NOV 2/WITH GOLD UP 55 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.12 TONNES.
NOV 1/WITH GOLD UP $9.20 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.02 TONNES FORM THE GLD../INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.57 TONNES
OCT 31/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.00; BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.61 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 922.59. TONNES//
OCT28/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.70 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.19 TONNES FROM THE GLD..///INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.20 TONNES
OCT 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.80: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.39 TONNES
OCT 26/WITH GOLD UP $11.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.39 TONNES
OCT 25/WITH GOLD UP $3.85: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.39 TONNES
OCT 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.80 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.89 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.10 TONNES
OCT 21/WITH GOLD UP $19.10: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.99 TONNES
OCT 20/WITH GOLD UP $2.40: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.08 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 932.73 TONNES
OCT 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $20.65:: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 938.81 TONNES
OCT 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.40: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 939.10 TONNES
OCT 17/WITH GOLD UP $14.55: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.28 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 941.13 TONNES
OCT 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.50 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.31 TONNES
OCT 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.40 TODAY: A DEPOSIT OF 1.16 TONNES INTO THE GLD// CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 945.47 TONNES
OCT 12/WITH GOLD UP $4.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.31 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 910.41 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
DEC 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.05 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.20 MILLION OZ//
DEC 16/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.85 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 508.15 MILLION OZ//
DEC 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 78 CENTS: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF EXACTLY 2.00 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 510.000 MILLION OZ
DEC 14/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.7 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 512.000 MILLION OZ//
DEC 13/WITH SILVER UP 59 CENTS: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 600,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 513.900 MILLION OZ//
DEC 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 33 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.500 MILLION OZ//
DEC 9/WITH SILVER RISING 77 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.2 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.500 MILLION OZ.
DEC 8/WITH SILVER RISING 34 CENTS TODAY: OVER THE PAST 3 WEEKS, WE HAVE GAINED A STRONG: 44.777 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 516.700 MILION OZ.
NOV 14/WITH SILVER UP 41 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.923 MILLION OZ//
NOV 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 553,000 OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.923 MILLION OZ//
NOV 10/WITH SILVER UP 39 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 368,000 OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.476 MILLION OZ//
NOV 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/; A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.821 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.108 MILLION OZ//
NOV 8/WITH SILVER UP 48 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.751 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 475.929 MILLION OZ//
NOV 7/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.678 MILLION OZ//
NOV 4/WITH SILVER UP $1.31 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.972 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.678 MILLION OZ//
NOV 3.WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 566,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.650 MILLION OZ//
NOV 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 92,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.216 MILLION OZ//
NOV 1/WITH SILVER UP 53 CENTS TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 415,000 OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.308 MILLION OZ
OCT 31: WITH SILVER FLAT: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .644 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.723 MILLION OZ//
OCT 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 35 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 276,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.367 MILLION OZ//
OCT 27/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE S: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.579 MILLION OZ FROMTHE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.091 MILLION OZ//
OCT 26/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.013 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.670 MILLION OZ./.
OCT 25/WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.083 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.683 MILLION OZ/
OCT 24/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .553 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.610 MILLION OZ//
OCT 21/WITH SILVER UP 43 CENTS: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF .46 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.163MILLION OZ//
OCT 20/WITH SILVER UP 33 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .921 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.703 MILLION OZ//
OCT 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.105 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.624 MILLION OZ///
OCT 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.658 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.729 MILLION OZ///
OCT 17/WITH SILVER UP 53 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.151 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY REST AT 486.071 MILLION OZ//
OCT 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 77 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.211 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.920 MILLION OZ//
OCT 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 4.513 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.709 MILLION OZ//
CLOSING INVENTORY 509.20 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
1:Peter Schiff
We have outlined this to you over the course of the year
Schiff
COMEX: Silver Registered Ratio Falls To 11.1% – Lowest In 22 Years
MONDAY, DEC 19, 2022 – 12:30 PM
The drainage of silver from Comex vaults since the start of the year has been nothing short of spectacular…
This analysis focuses on gold and silver within the Comex/CME futures exchange. See the article What is the Comex? for more detail. The charts and tables below specifically analyze the physical stock/inventory data at the Comex to show the physical movement of metal into and out of Comex vaults.
Registered = Warrant assigned and can be used for Comex delivery, Eligible = No warrant attached – owner has not made it available for delivery.
Current Trends
Gold
Gold is seeing its first increase in Registered inventory since April. That said, over December, there has been a mild net decrease in metal in Comex vaults of 100k ounces.
Figure: 1 Recent Monthly Stock Change
According to Comex reports, there are over 11M ounces of Gold in the Registered category. If so much metal is readily available for delivery, why are market participants moving metal from Eligible to Registered?
The short answer: there are not 11M ounces standing ready for delivery. Most of it is listed there for optics which was put in place shortly after the stress in the Comex system that occurred back in March 2020 (see Figure 8).
Figure: 2 Recent Monthly Stock Change
Since the start of the December contract, the amount Pledged has been steadily increasing again. Pledged is a subset of Registered but is actually not available for delivery because it has been pledged as collateral. This essentially inflates Registered by the amount shown below. Another tool to make the Registered category look bigger than it is.
Figure: 3 Gold Pledged Holdings
Silver
The supply of silver has been shrinking even more rapidly than gold. The drainage since the start of the year has been nothing short of spectacular. 48.5M ounces have left Registered since Jan 1. That represents more than 50% of the balance of 82M ounces last Dec 31.
After all this stress on the system, the Comex was only able to add a net 300k ounces of metal so far this month.
Figure: 4 Recent Monthly Stock Change
Much of the inflow came at the beginning of the month and has already been leaving since. It’s very likely that by the end of December, the net change in inventory is actually negative.
Figure: 5 Recent Monthly Stock Change
There is another major indication that shows inventory might be much smaller than is reported. As of yesterday, only 77.6% of contracts standing for delivery have actually had their metal delivered. Shorts are on the hook for deciding when to deliver the metal, so why are they dragging their feet? Through the 16th, this is the least amount of metal delivered as a percent of Open Interest on First Notice back to at least Jan 2020.
Figure: 6 Delivery Volume After First Notice
Another odd data point is the number of net new contracts after first position. There have been some months, like last July, where net new contracts are negative throughout the month. However, while this month is still positive, it went up and then reversed back down. This means that there are cash settlements happening way late in the contract.
Again, why? This does not usually happen!
Figure: 7 Cumulative Net New Contracts
Let’s look back at the vaults. The table below summarizes the movement activity over several periods to better demonstrate the magnitude of the current move.
Gold
- Over the last month, gold has seen a net inventory decrease of 2.6%
- This is being driven by 1.2M ounces leaving Eligible vs only 608k ounces being added to Registered
- Since last year, the total amount removed exceeds 10M ounces of gold
Silver
- Silver continues to see Registered supplies fall, with 1.6M ounces being removed over the last 30 days
- Eligible took a beating in the latest week, dropping almost 2M ounces
Palladium/Platinum
Palladium and platinum are much smaller markets but that may be where the market breaks first.
- Palladium saw a light increase as the delivery month got started
- Platinum inventory is down 12.1% over the last month as it prepares for the January delivery month
- It will not take many contracts standing for delivery to fully deplete Platinum from the vaults
Figure: 8 Stock Change Summary
The next table shows the activity by bank/Holder. It details the numbers above to see the movement specific to vaults.
Gold
- The last month has seen net inventories fall across all vaults aside from a negligible increase in Manfra
- Brinks saw supplies fall by 7%
Silver
- Silver has seen some big moves over the last month:
- Manfra increased supplies by 4M ounces or 40%
- Delaware also saw supplies increase 2M ounces or 5%
- JP Morgan was on the other side, losing 3.8M ounces
- INT Delaware saw 264k ounces disappear which was 21%
Figure: 9 Stock Change Detail
Historical Perspective
Zooming out and looking at the inventory for gold and silver shows just how massive the current move has been. The black line shows Registered as a percent of the total. As gold December delivery has started, you can see that Registered quickly moved from 45% to 50% of the total inventory.
As noted above, vault totals are still falling. This move into Registered is coming at the expense of Eligible. If there is still such a massive supply of Registered, why are banks scrambling to add metal back from Eligible?
Figure: 10 Historical Eligible and Registered
Despite silver seeing a net increase in inventory over the month, Registered continues to fall. The silver Registered Ratio reached as low as 11.1% of total inventory on December 7th. This is the lowest the ratio has been since at least January 2000!! The old low was 14.7% back in December 2016. The full history really demonstrates the magnitude of the current move.
Figure: 11 Historical Eligible and Registered
The chart below focuses just on Registered to show the steepness of the current fall. In Feb 2021, Registered surged to as high as 152M ounces. That number now sits around 33M, which is a net fall of 119M ounces (78%).
Figure: 12 Historical Registered
Comex is not the only vault seeing big moves out of silver. Below shows the LBMA holdings of silver. It should be noted that much of the holdings shown below are allocated to ETFs. Regardless, total inventories have fallen every single month since last November. Holdings fell below 1B ounces in June and now sit at 840M ounces as of November.
Figure: 13 LBMA Holdings of Silver
Available supply for potential demand
These falls in inventory have had a major impact on the coverage of Comex against the paper contracts held. There are now 3.6 paper contracts for each ounce of Registered gold within the Comex vaults. This is down from the recent high of 4.5 seen in November.
Figure: 14 Open Interest/Stock Ratio
Coverage in silver is far worse than in gold with nearly 18.3 paper contracts for each ounce of Registered silver. This is down slightly from the recent high when coverage was as thin as 20.4 paper contracts for each physical ounce in mid-November. This means a bit more than 5% of silver open interest would need to stand for delivery to wipe out Comex vaults entirely of Registered.
Figure: 15 Open Interest/Stock Ratio
Wrapping Up
The physical demand for gold and silver has continued unabated for months. This is the first month where the net flows have slowed, which is ironic given the historically strong delivery month of December.
Taking a pure data hat off and putting on a speculator hat… here is what I think:
Inventories are much thinner than the data shows. We have perhaps reached the bottom of metal available for delivery at current prices. This is why silver is seeing so many contracts remain unfulfilled AND why we have also seen a dip in net new contracts this late in the delivery window. There is simply no metal available so it is not being delivered.
Gold is a few months behind silver and is also a deeper market, but the same trends are starting to emerge.
This theory could be put to the test as soon as the end of December. Platinum is facing its major delivery month with very limited supplies available. If someone wanted to stress the Comex system, they could easily stand for delivery in amounts exceeding what’s available.
If I had to bet though, I don’t think the Comex will break on Platinum. What I will be watching is what tricks are used to satisfy demand. It can manifest itself in the data in multiple ways (e.g., cash settlements, a larger dive into close, etc.). Whatever happens, it will likely be a preview of what we can expect in silver and then gold in 2023 and 2024. Stay tuned!
2 Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz//Rickards:
end
LAWRIE WILLIAMS:
3. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries//
I brought this to your attention on Friday as this is a must view of Maguire interviewing London Paul
(GATA)
November spike in BIS gold swaps was an emergency intervention, Maguire says
Submitted by admin on Fri, 2022-12-16 20:38Section: Daily Dispatches
8:30p ET Friday, December 16, 2022
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Speaking on Kinesis Money’s “Live from the Vault” program this week, London bullion trader Andrew Maguire says the Bank for International Settlements’ nearly 100-tonne increase in its gold swap position in November —
— likely was part of an emergency intervention to contain the monetary metal’s sharply rising price.
Nevertheless, Maguire adds, the structure of the gold market is substantially bullish entering the new year.
Maguire’s comments are 42 minutes long and can be viewed at YouTube here:
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org
end
There is now a record central bank gold rush triggered by fears of western sanctions
(Rees/London Telegraph//GATA)
Record central bank gold rush has been triggered by fears of Western sanctions
Submitted by admin on Sun, 2022-12-18 15:54Section: Daily Dispatches
By Tom Rees
The Telegraph, London
Sunday, December 18, 2022
A record central bank gold rush has been triggered by fears of Western sanctions after Russia was made a pariah state in the wake of its invasion of Ukraine, according to the World Gold Council.
Officials in many countries outside the West are rethinking their foreign currency reserves after the sanctions meant Russia’s central bank lost the use of its war chest, hampering its ability to protect the ruble and its banking system
Central banks snapped up more gold in the first nine months of 2022 than all the annual totals since 1967, according to the WGC. Almost 400 tonnes of gold were bought by central banks in the third quarter, quadruple the amount acquired in the same period a year earlier.
John Reade, chief market strategist at the WGC, said: “At the margin, it served to increase the tendency of emerging market central banks to diversify away from the reserve currencies they have in their portfolio, and add to gold.
“It certainly made them think about what international reserves mean, what they should hold, how they should hold them.” …
… For the remainder of the report:
END
Again, we are witnessing a rush to gold
(Reuters)
Australia’s sovereign wealth fund buys gold, commodities as shadow of 1970s looms
Submitted by admin on Mon, 2022-12-19 06:58Section: Daily Dispatches
By Lewis Jackson
Reuters
via WTVB-1590AM
Sunday, December 18, 2022
SYDNEY — Australia’s A$200 billion ($134.28 billion) sovereign wealth fund is increasing exposure to gold, commodities, private equity, and infrastructure as it warns the future will echo the low-growth, high-inflation era of the 1970s.
The Future Fund outlined the changes, which also included widening its currency basket, in a note on Friday that questioned the value of traditional 60-40 portfolios and called for an investing shift to confront a world dealing with war, inflation and climate change.
“In this kind of environment there is a real risk of simultaneous slow growth, high unemployment, and rising prices that has some parallels with the stagflationary period that struck developed markets in the 1970s,” the note said.
Investors large and small are scrambling to adjust portfolios and philosophies undermined by the simultaneous cratering of equity and bond markets.
… For the remainder of the report:
END
GOLD/SILVER
/4. OTHER PHYSICAL SILVER/GOLD COMMENTARIES
A must read
(Egon Von Greyerz)
Von Greyerz: US Double-Speak Will Not Stop Gold’s Imminent Surge
SUNDAY, DEC 18, 2022 – 10:30 AM
Authored by Egon von Greyerz via GoldSwitzerland.com,
Propaganda, lies and censorship are all part of desperate governments actions as the economy disintegrates.
We are today seeing both news and history being rewritten to suit the woke trends that permeate society at every level, be it covid, the number of genders, the Ukraine war or government finances.
I have in many articles covered the explosion of money printing and debt which is an obvious sign that the global financial system is approaching collapse and default . The consequences will be far reaching to every corner of the globe and all parts of society.
See my recent article “In The End The Dollar Goes To Zero And The US Defaults” which outlines the probable course of events in 2023 and afterwards.
Later on in this article, I will look at the consequences in relation to markets and what ordinary people (investors?) can do to prepare themselves.
ORWELL PREDICTED THE FALSIFICATION OF HISTORY 73 YEARS AGO
“Every record has been destroyed or falsified, every book rewritten, every picture has been repainted, every statue and street building has been renamed, every date has been altered. And the process is continuing day by day and minute by minute. History has stopped. Nothing exists except an endless present in which the Party is always right.”― George Orwell, 1984
Let’s just look at government finances. As we are entering the end of an era with deficits and debts running out of control, the truth becomes an inconvenience to governments and must therefore be suppressed or rewritten.
If we just look at the US Doublespeak in regards to the 2021-2 budget deficit, we find that the US Treasury reported on Oct 21 this year:
WASHINGTON, Oct 21 (Reuters) – The U.S. government on Friday reported that its fiscal 2022 budget deficit plunged by half from a year earlier to $1.375 trillion, due to fading COVID-19 relief spending and record revenues fuelled by a hot economy, but student loan forgiveness costs limited the reduction. The U.S. Treasury said the $1.400 trillion reduction in the deficit was still the largest-ever single-year improvement in the U.S. fiscal position as receipts hit a record $4.896 trillion, up $850 billion, or 21% from fiscal 2021.
FANTASTIC!!
What an achievement by the Treasury Secretary Ms Yellen and her team to halve the deficit to only $1.4 trillion!
But let’s look a bit more closely what really happened.
If the deficit was “only” $1.4 trillion we must assume that the Federal Debt also increased by the same amount?
But ALAS, the debt increased by $2.5 trillion to $31T in the same period and not by the assumed $1.4T.
Hmmmm.
So again we can look at the 1984 Orwell quote above “Every record has been destroyed or falsified….”
The deficit wasn’t halved at all. Instead hal
f of it was stated below the line as a budget adjustment. So they can lie about the Budget Deficit but so far they are not lying about the level of the Debt. But that will certainly happen one day too. Remember that the Clinton so called surpluses in the late 1990s were produced with the same type of creative accounting. There were no real surpluses. They were just shuffled below the line since debt continued to grow.
Good old Mark Twain gave us the useful quote about lies and statistics:
So there we have it, 2022 seems more and more like 1984!
AWARDS FOR FAILURE
In this upside down world, warmongers and money printers get prestigious awards.
Zelensky is Time Magazine’s Person of the Year. And Bernanke wins the Nobel Prize in Economics.
In the Ukraine war 100,000 Russian and 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers have died according to the US Chief of Staff Gen. Milley.
Instead of handing out a reward for a war resulting in 200,000 dead soldiers and another 40,000 dead civilians, it would be much more appropriate if the world focused on making peace rather than sending more weapons and more money to perpetuate the war.
“All the war-propaganda, all the screaming and lies and hatred, comes invariably from people who are not fighting.” – George Orwell
Ben Bernanke was Chairman of the Fed from 2006 to 2014. During his period the US Debt doubled from $8.2 trillion to $17.5T, a feat that no head of the Fed had achieved before.
And for that accomplishment the Nobel Prize is awarded.
The fact that the Swedish Riksbank (Central bank) selects the winner makes it easier to understand since they are all Keynesians
2023 AND BEYOND
The clouds look extremely dark for 2023 and beyond.
As I have pointed out above, there is no attempt to reach a peace settlement in Ukraine. Weapons and money are pouring in to keep the war going. And the sanctions forced upon Europe by the US are having a devastating effect for the citizens of most European countries. Energy costs are up 2-3X or more for many consumers and food inflation in Germany for example jumped 21% year on year in November.
In the UK, many ordinary people cannot afford to keep their heating on or to eat properly. And this is before the cold winter sets in.
The situation in Ukraine seems to deteriorate and with Russia and the US involved, as well as China in the periphery, it could easily escalate.
But as I have spelt out numerous times, $300 trillion of global debt and $2 quadrillion of quasi debt in the form of derivatives can only end in currencies going to zero and sovereign borrowers defaulting.
A global sovereign default should be seen as an indisputable fact and it is only a question of how long it takes.
These events are normally a process. As Hemingway said, you go bankrupt “Gradually and then suddenly”.
The beginning can be a slow process and then at some point the shock comes so fast that no one will have time to react.
So no-one must believe that there will be time to get out once the early “gradual” phase starts.
Just to be clear, the gradual phase is here already although the world is in denial. The buy the dip mentality is still prevailing as evidenced by the partial recovery in stock markets.
Few realise that this is it and the next devastating fall in stocks is going to fool practically all investors. The majority will not get out but hope for a correction so they can exit at a higher level. And once the correction comes, they will be bullish again.
Once everyone is back into the market it will fall again. Most of the investors will be fooled most of the time until their portfolio is virtually worthless.
The Western world hasn’t experienced a real bear market since 1929-32. That time it took 25 years for the Dow to recover to the 1929 high.
The generosity of Central banks has made stock investments a one way game since the early 1980s. But now the game is up and few will realise it until they have lost everything.
So the “suddenly” will be like an earthquake seemingly coming out of nowhere. It can come in 2023 or it might take a few years.
NO WARNING
What is certain is that there will be no warning. As I said, we have already had plenty of warnings but gullible investors will not believe them. This is just like the curse of Cassandra. She was given the gift of predicting disastrous events. But her curse was that no one would believe her. I wrote about Cassandra in this article five years ago. In the same article, I also made a timely gold forecast which most investors sadly ignored.
GOLD IN LONG TERM BULL MARKET
Gold has risen strongly in this century although most investors don’t actually realise how strong it has been.
Since the beginning of the 2000s gold has outperformed every major asset class including stock markets. But the move has been in two halves with the first 11 years being spectacular for gold which moved up 7X in dollar terms. Since then a strong dollar has made gold’s performance less spectacular.
But if we look at an annual chart of gold in US dollars it still looks very impressive.
In the 2000s, Gold in Euros has performed as a perfect wealth preservation asset with only one major correction.
This chart is more typical of Gold’s performance in most currencies since it is not affected by a temporarily strong dollar.
Sanctions, energy prices, inflation, industrial production and many more problems in Euroland, make gold a sine qua non (necessity) in order to avoid total wealth destruction.
Both fundamentally and technically gold now looks ready for another major move. The first target is $3,000 on the way to much higher levels. But as I often point out, gold must be measured in ounces or kilos and not in what will be worthless fiat money whether paper or digital.
In February 2019, I forecast that the Maginot line at $1,350 would soon break on the upside. (See chart below) and would be followed by a strong rally. The rally started a few weeks later and gold went up $700 to over $2,000.
We now have another smaller consolidation or a mini Maginot line which is likely to break in the next few weeks. A decisive break of $1900-1950 should do it and lead to a major move.
Confirming this turn is an Aden Sisters 7 year cycle low around December 2022:
Hubert Moolman has pointed out a 23 year cycle that also bottoms this autumn and normally leads to major moves.
Technical forecasts are of course about probabilities and not certainties. But the track record of these forecasters improves the odds substantially.
THE WISDOM OF THE EAST
The East, including Russia, Turkey, India, Thailand, Vietnam and China have all made major purchases of gold in this century whilst the demand from the West has been static.
Total withdrawals from the Shanghai Gold Exchange is a reflection of total gold demand in China. As the chart below shows, the Chinese have bought 23,000 tonnes of gold since 2008. That is around 50% of the gold production during the same period.
Although there are many factors, primarily fundamental but also technical, that point to gold soon making a major move, what is much more important are the massive risks that the world is now facing.
We are on the edge of a precipice potentially leading to catastrophes of a magnitude never experienced before.
No one knows of course how this will play out except for future historians.
As I have stated in many articles the risks are at all levels, geopolitical, economic, financial, social, human etc.
For most of us it will be impossible to protect ourselves against most of the risks.
What is highly likely is that the wealth destruction will be massive and for that physical gold and silver is the best insurance like it has been throughout history.
I am obviously not pretending that precious metals is the total panacea for what is coming. But what is quite certain is that for material survival it is critical to hold.
As I often state, a close circle of family and friends is more important than anything else.
end
end
Another must read
(Claudio Grass)
Gold Is Money: Everything Else Is Credit
SUNDAY, DEC 18, 2022 – 05:30 PM
Authored by Claudio Grass via The Mises Institute,
Throughout the better part of 2022 there has been one question that has consistently, and predictably, popped up in conversations with my friends, clients and readers. Those who know me and are familiar with my ideas are well aware of my position on precious metals and the multiple roles they serve, so I can’t blame them for them for being curious whether I still “stick to my guns” in this era of irrationality in the markets and the economy.
Especially for those not versed in monetary history, which is regrettably the vast majority of the population, it is natural to wonder: “If gold is such a great hedge against inflation, why hasn’t it skyrocketed now that inflation is finally here?”
Well, there are a couple of reasons for that, some more obvious than others. The interest rate hikes that the Fed spearheaded and repeatedly escalated are the most straightforward explanation. At least that’s the answer most mainstream economists and analysts will give you. And it makes sense: If gold pays you no interest for holding it, then why not switch to something that does? This is the mindset of most investors and that weakens demand, which in turn drags the price down. That’s how the theory goes anyway.
If, however, we’re willing to examine the question a little more closely, we might begin by scrutinizing its premises. The question takes for granted that gold has underperformed this year. But has it really? If you’re saving, getting your paycheck and paying your bills in a currency other than the dollar, you’re likely to have a very different view on this issue. In euros, gold is up around 6.6 percent. In yen, it’s up 17.9 percent In Egyptian pounds is up over 45 percent. What this clearly shows us, is that perspective matters.
And for those that can see the bigger picture, that perspective is even clearer: Thinking about the gold price in terms of any fiat currency, not just the USD, is not really helpful. It’s not gold’s value that fluctuates, what fluctuates is the perceived and totally imaginary value of all these useless pieces of paper. After all, as all long-term, responsible precious metals investors know very well, there’s only one important trend and it’s an obvious one, as the chart below shows.
As I mentioned many times, I do not believe that short-term price considerations should play a pivotal role in the decision-making process of investors who hold gold for the right reasons and who understand why they do. What is important, however, is to look beyond the mainstream headlines and to be able to separate the signal from the noise. In our case, for example, one can find a million analyses and forecasts on gold’s outlook, all highlighting superficial dynamics and featuring simplistic arguments. Monetary policy projections are chief among them, and the narrative goes “Since we expect central bankers to do so and so, gold is projected to react in this way.”
Well, instead of trying to divine the intentions of central bankers, to guess what they’ll do and how it might affect the gold market, wouldn’t it make more sense to look at what those central bankers have actually done, rather than what they say? Cause what they did in 2022 speaks volumes: Globally, central banks accumulated gold reserves at a pace unseen since 1967, back when the dollar was still backed by the precious metal.
Consider this for a moment and then recall all their official statements and projections about the economy and how a recession is avoidable, about inflation and how it’s definitely, absolutely under control and about their faith in their own currencies. Feel free to draw your own conclusions about what’s coming.
Looking forward to the next year, it is clear that there are many reasons to be concerned. The conflict in Ukraine shows no signs of abating and all the preexisting problems it seriously aggravated can also be expected to linger, if not get worse. Inflation is set to continue to plague the real economy, no matter how hard government statisticians try to cook the numbers: Even if CPI goes down, real households will continue to feel the pain. There’s an abundance of supportive forces working in favor of gold and the dynamics are so striking that even the big banks couldn’t help but notice. In early December, Saxo Bank put out an “outrageous” price forecast of $3,000/ounce, in its most “extreme” scenario of a worldwide “war economy.”
While price gains will certainly be more than welcome for physical gold investors, the metal’s real value is likely to become apparent too in the months and years to come. As States get increasingly desperate and fail to find a way out of the fiscal, monetary and sociopolitical hole they dug for themselves, they are bound to get more aggressive, as they’ve always been known to do. Threats to financial sovereignty, government power grabs, increased monitoring and control over private assets and savings, are all likely to become more dire. And under these conditions, physical gold really shines, especially when it’s securely and compliantly held outside one’s own jurisdiction, as well as, outside the traditional banking system.
5. Commodity commentaries//IRON ORE
END
6/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
Bankman Fried to be extradited to the USA possibly by today
(zerohedge)
Bankman-Fried Expected To Be Extradited As Soon As Today
MONDAY, DEC 19, 2022 – 10:47 AM
It appears crypto-criminal Sam Bankman-Fried would rather take his chances in the relative ‘luxury’ of an American jail than face another night in Bahamian’s corrections department, as he is expected to accept extradition as soon as this morning.
After being arrested and denied bail by a Bahamas court, the 30-year-old has been held at Fox Hill Prison in Nassau.
The facility has been criticized in international reports for overcrowding and lacking sanitation.
Reports indicate that he shares a cell with five other individuals.
The NY Times reports one former Fox Hill inmate Sean Hall, who was freed from jail last year, said:
“It’s no living situation for no type of living being.”
According to Hall, the width of his cell was less than the span of his stretched arms, and they slept on bare metal bunk beds infested with insects.
Another source acquainted with the situation told the Wall Street Journal that Sam Bankman-Fried’s team had provided meals that matched his dietary requirements, but they were uncertain as of Friday if he had received them.
According to people familiar with the matter, Sam Bankman-Fried is due in a Bahamian court on Monday where he is expected to agree to be extradited to the US to face charges of fraud.
Extradition will pave the way for a protracted legal showdown in the U.S. On Tuesday, the Southern District of New York of the Justice Department unsealed a 13-page criminal indictment.
Bitcoinist reports, that, according to defense attorney Zachary Margulis-Ohnuma, Bankman-Fried would likely be detained at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn upon arriving in the U.S., although some defendants are being kept at jails just outside of New York City owing to congestion at the facility.
end
1. YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS//
MONDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: UP TO 6.9738
OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.9726
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 60.74 PTS OR 1.92%
HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 97.86 OR 0.59%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 289.68 PTS OR 1.05%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 104.22 Euro RISES TO 106.09 UP 30 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.249!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 136.50/JAPANESE YEN COLLAPSING AS WELL AS LONG TERM YIELDS RISING BREAKING THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN: UP-// OFF- SHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. EIGHTY percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.206%***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 4.374%*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 3.298…** DANGEROUS//
3i Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO 4.318//
3j Gold at $1792.55//silver at: 23.17 7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 3 AND 39/100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 68.03//
3m oil into the 75 dollar handle for WTI and 79 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 136.50 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.9329– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9890 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.533% UP 5 BASIS PTS…GETTING DANGEROUS
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.606% UP 7 BASIS PTS//
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18,65…
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: 3.482 % UP 14 BASIS PTS
end
i.b Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:
FIRST, ZEROHEDGE (PRE USA OPENING// MORNING
Futures Rise On China Growth Hopes
MONDAY, DEC 19, 2022 – 08:06 AM
After US stocks were set to start week with modest gains as optimism around an economic recovery in China offset fears that the Fed is pushing the US economy off a recessionary cliff. S&P and Nasdaq futures were both up 0.4% as of 7:45 a.m. ET led by energy and tech shares, after China’s leaders said they will focus on boosting the economy next year, hinting at business-friendly policies, and further support for the property market.
In premarket trading, Tesla gained after Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk polled users on Twitter over whether he should step down as head of the social-media company, with the result so far leaning toward yes. At the same time, Ardelyx slumped after the biotech said that the FDA may need “up to a few more weeks” to finalize its response to the company’s appeal over the complete response letter for its new drug application for its kidney disease therapy XPHOZAH (tenapanor). Here are some other notable premarket movers:
- Tesla shares gain 5.1% in US premarket trading after CEO Elon Musk polled users on Twitter over whether he should step down as head of the social-media company, with the result so far leaning toward yes.
- Moderna gains 4% as Jefferies upgraded the stock to buy from hold, saying it can rebound in 2023 on a return of pipeline opportunities.
- Ardelyx shares drop 13% after the biotech said that the FDA may need “up to a few more weeks” to finalize its response to the company’s appeal over the complete response letter for its new drug application for its kidney disease therapy XPHOZAH.
- Aerojet shares rise 3% after L3Harris Technologies (LHX US) agreed to buy the rocket engine maker in a deal valued at about $4.7 billion. The purchase makes strategic sense, although analysts at Truist said the offer price looks expensive.
- Watch Netflix stock as its price target was raised at Morgan Stanley on the back of currency “swings,” though broker flagged risk that expectations and valuation have run “too far too fast.”
- Vertex Pharmaceuticals stock is downgraded to hold at Jefferies, which says that the company continues to offer a good pipeline, but risk/reward and valuation seem “balanced” following strong gains this year.
- KeyBanc adds to recent upgrades for PerkinElmer moving to overweight from sector weight based on transformational sale of analytical instruments business.
A fourth-quarter rally in the S&P 500 fizzled out as investors grew worried the Fed would keep interest rates higher for longer despite signs of cooling in inflation. Unexpectedly hawkish comments from the European Central Bank added to the pessimism last week, keeping the benchmark index on course for its biggest annual slump since 2008.
Susannah Streeter, senior investment and markets analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, said although stock-index futures were climbing today, sentiment is still expected to be subdued into the year-end. “Concerns that the US will be dragged into recession as the Fed tries to tame the wild horse of inflation are still front and center,” she said.
Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Wilson warned US corporate earnings next year are facing their biggest drop since the global financial crisis as the economy weakens. That could spark a new stock-market low that’s “much worse than what most investors are expecting,” he wrote in a note.
Yet while underlying stock indexes remain on track to end the month lower, some investors are starting to look past fears of an economic recession triggered by higher interest rates, and betting that inflation has peaked allowing the Federal Reserve and other central banks some leeway in tightening policy.
“Markets have begun to price in that inflation will decline, in part due to the action by central banks,” Jacob Vijverberg, multi-asset investment manager at Aegon Asset Management, told clients, pointing to recent below-forecast US inflation figures. This would help riskier assets such as higher yielding fixed income and equities to outperform, he added.
European stocks also gained after a downbeat close to the past week, the Stoxx 600 rising 0.5% led by energy shares which outperformed on Monday as oil advanced following a pledge from China to revive consumption and a plan from the Biden administration to begin refilling US strategic crude reserves. The Stoxx 600 Energy sub-index rose 2.2% as of 8:30 a.m. in London, outpacing all other groups in the regional equity benchmark, which gained 0.5%. Here are the biggest Eureopean movers:
- BP shares rise as much as 3.3%, Shell 3.2% and TotalEnergies 3.4%. European energy shares outperform on Monday as oil advances following a pledge from China to revive consumption and a plan from the Biden administration to begin refilling US strategic crude reserves.
- Suedzucker shares rise as much as 6.4%, adding to last week’s strong gains following the German sugar producer’s guidance increase, with Warburg today upgrading the stock to buy from hold.
- Innate Pharma surged as much as 19% at the open after the French biotech company announced it had expanded its collaboration with Sanofi for natural killer cell therapeutics in oncology.
- Freenet shares rise as much as 4.8% after Deutsche Bank raises the stock to buy from hold, saying the telecom and media firm could be a defensive addition to portfolios in 2023.
- TietoEVRY shares gain as much as 3.5% after Nordea raised its recommendation to buy from hold, saying the break-up case for the firm is “becoming partly de-risked” following the announced disposals of Banking, Connect and Transform businesses.
- Nexi shares advance as much as 5% to lead gains on the FTSE MIB index after the government dropped a proposed measure on a minimum threshold to accept digital payments.
- Fugro shares dropped as much as 30%, the most since 1995, after report on involvement with 2019 dam breach in Brazil that killed 270 people.
- Tokmanni shares fall as much as 6.8%, extending losses into a fourth session, after Nordea cut its recommendation for the shares to hold from buy, noting the company’s “unwillingness to increase prices” hurts its investment case “at least temporarily.”
Asia stocks headed lower for a third day as traders assessed rising infection numbers in China and risks of a regional economic slowdown. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index erased initial gains to fall as much as 0.4%, as health care and industrials dragged on the gauge. Initial optimism for stocks in China and Hong Kong faded amid concerns that Asia’s biggest economy will suffer from a spike in virus cases in Beijing, Shanghai and other major cities. Beijing Covid Death Reports Fuel Concern China Hiding Data Benchmarks also slumped in Japan as the yen strengthened, joining the Philippines and South Korea lower, while India and Singapore advanced. Asian shares could climb more than 9% through 2023, according to strategists surveyed by Bloomberg. But the road may be bumpy as uncertainty remains over the pace of China’s reopening and the outlook for Federal Reserve policy. Moreover, the world’s biggest money managers are set to unload up to $100 billion of stocks in the final few weeks of the year. Still, “modest valuations, light investor positioning and good fundamentals are buffers that should help Asian stocks withstand near-term volatility,” said Zhikai Chen, head of Asian and global emerging market equities at BNP Paribas Asset Management.
The yen strengthens and JGB futures fall on report PM Kishida may add flexibility to BOJ’s 2% inflation goal. Japan’s 5-year yield climbs to 0.145%, highest since 2015. The moves are later pared after Japan’s Matsuno denies plans to revise BOJ accord. Most currency majors grind higher against the dollar; yuan marginally softer. Asian stocks fall for third day, with Japan and China leading the retreat. Hang Seng erases a gain of as much as 1.7%, Shanghai Composite falls 1.5%. S&P futures nudge 0.1% higher, Nasdaq contracts also slightly firmer. Treasury 10-year yield adds three basis points to 3.51%; Australian curve bear steepens after 10-year yield jumps six basis points. WTI crude rises to around $75.20; gold muted near $1,792.
Australia stocks edged lower: the S&P/ASX 200 index fell 0.2% to close at 7,133.90, with real-estate shares leading declines on the gauge. Shares of Star Entertainment slid 18% to become the worst performer on the gauge after the government issued new proposed tax changes that may impact its business. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 0.7% to 11,518.14
Indian stocks rose the most in nearly a month, in contrast to the broader Asian market that traded lower. The S&P BSE Sensex gained 0.8% to 61,806.19, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index also advanced by a similar measure. Benchmark indexes in most other regional economies, including China, Hong Kong and Japan, fell. Broad-based buying in the market lifted overall sentiments, said Osho Krishan, senior analyst, technical and derivative research, Angel One. “Technically, there has been no substantial change in the market outlook as the bulls made a comeback from their support zone and showcased their resilience,” Krishan said. The gains come as demand in India’s large domestic market cushions it from the impact of a slowing global economy. High-frequency indicators show the economic activity has stayed steady in recent months but may slow going forward as resilience wanes. Reliance Industries gave the biggest boost to the index, adding 1.4%.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.5% as the greenback weakened against all of its Group-of-10 peers. Here is how other key pairs did:
- The euro rose by 0.6% to 1.0653, erasing Friday’s loss after ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said half-point increases in borrowing costs will continue as officials try to tame soaring prices. In Germany, the IFO business confidence index rose to 88.6 (estimate 87.5) in December from revised 86.4 in November, according to the IFO Institute
- The pound rose while gilts plunged across the curve with the belly outperforming slightly as money markets added to BOE tightening wagers and traders looked ahead to QE sales starting January
- The yen whipsawed after reports on a potential change to a key agreement between the government and central bank fueled speculation policy makers are moving closer to a hawkish pivot. The BOJ is expected to keep monetary stimulus unchanged Tuesday, yet elevated overnight volatility in the yen reflects risk of a shift in tone when it comes to forward guidance
- Australian dollar climbed amid broad greenback weakness spurred by speculation of a hawkish pivot in Japan. Gains were refreshed on news that Australia’s Foreign Minister Penny Wong will travel to Beijing on Tuesday
In rates, the Treasury curve twist-steepened; the 2-year yield fell 1bp and the 10-year yield rose by around 4bps. US 10-year yields around 3.54%, cheaper by 6bps vs. Friday close with bunds and gilts lagging by additional 1.5bp and 10bp in the sector; long-end led losses widens 2s10s, 5s30s spreads by 3.5bp and 3bp on the day. Dollar issuance slate remains light, with issuance likely concluded now for the year. Treasuries follow more aggressive bear steepening move across gilts, where long-end yield are cheaper by 13bp as traders look ahead to QE sales starting January. This week’s US auctions include $12b 20-year bond reopening Wednesday and $19b 5-year TIPS Thursday. In Europe, Bunds and Italian bonds extend the streak of declines to four, the longest in 6 weeks and money markets added to ECB tightening bets as markets continued to digest last week’s hawkish policy messaging.
In commodities, oil futures rose boosted by Beijing’s pro-growth pledge and a US move to refill strategic crude reserves boosted oil futures, though economic growth fears kept prices on track for a second monthly loss.
Bitcoin is softer on the session, but resides towards the mid-point of relative narrow parameters.
It’s a quiet economic calendar, with just the NAHB Housing Market Index on deck (est. 34, prior 33).
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 futures up 0.4% to 3,894.00
- STOXX Europe 600 up 0.5% to 426.88
- MXAP down 0.2% to 156.07
- MXAPJ little changed at 507.98
- Nikkei down 1.1% to 27,237.64
- Topix down 0.8% to 1,935.41
- Hang Seng Index down 0.5% to 19,352.81
- Shanghai Composite down 1.9% to 3,107.12
- Sensex up 0.7% to 61,781.21
- Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.2% to 7,133.87
- Kospi down 0.3% to 2,352.17
- German 10Y yield little changed at 2.19%
- Euro up 0.6% to $1.0647
- Brent Futures up 1.1% to $79.90/bbl
- Gold spot up 0.2% to $1,796.99
- U.S. Dollar Index down 0.46% to 104.22
Top Overnight News from Bloomberg
- EU member states will on Monday discuss a gas-price cap that’s almost one-third lower than an original proposal as they attempt to break a deadlock over the controversial proposal to contain the impact of a historic energy crisis
- After this winter, the EU will have to refill gas reserves with little to no deliveries from Russia, intensifying competition for tankers of the fuel. Even with more facilities to import liquefied natural gas coming online, the market is expected to remain tight until 2026, when additional production capacity from the US to Qatar becomes available. That means no respite from high prices
- China’s swift abandonment of Covid Zero has seen infections explode, especially in Beijing, which has seen shortages of medicine, overwhelmed hospital staff and deserted streets as residents stay home sick or to avoid the virus. That aligns with what other places experienced as they shifted from eliminating Covid to living with it — except for the lack of officially reported deaths
- China’s top leaders said they will focus on boosting the economy next year, hinting at business-friendly policies, further support for the property market while likely scaling back fiscal stimulus
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
Asia-Pac stocks eventually traded lower across the board following the downbeat performance on Wall Street on Friday. ASX 200 was weighed on by its heavyweight Financials and Healthcare sectors but losses were cushioned by gains in the metals-related names. Nikkei 225 was pressured following weekend reports that Japan’s government is set to revise a 10-year-old joint statement with the BoJ that commits the central bank to achieve its 2% inflation “at the earliest date possible,” while Toshiba Corp shares slid over 5% amid Nikkei reports that its preferred bidder JIP reportedly appears to be mulling a lower valuation for a buyout. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were initially mixed but the former failed to hold onto opening gains whilst the latter overlooked the PBoC injecting fresh funds via 14-day reverse repo for the first time in nearly two months, with sentiment dampened by reports of two COVID-related deaths in mainland China. US equity futures traded flat within tight ranges – the ES March contract remained under 3,900.
Top Asian News
- China reported two new COVID-related deaths in the mainland on December 18th vs zero a day earlier, according to Reuters.
- China’s Shanghai Education Bureau said it is to shut down all in-person classes in kindergartens and childcare centres in the city from December 19th due to COVID-19 infections, according to Reuters.
- Chip maker Renesas Electronics (6723 JT) suspended work at its Beijing plant from Friday for several days due to the spread of COVID-19 in the city, according to Reuters.
- Beijing has removed or adjusted 126 COVID-19 prevention measures, and all factories and construction sites above designated size and commercial buildings in the city have fully resumed work, officials cited by Global Times said Sunday.
- Macau’s government is to cancel COVID risk regulations for mainland China from Tuesday; arrivals from China must have a negative COVID test in the last 72 hours, according to Reuters.
- Hong Kong leader Lee to begin a four-day trip to Beijing on Wednesday, at which he is expected to discuss the reopening of the border with mainland China, via SCMP citing sources.
- Beijing, China is to buy imported COVID medicines to relive pressure on domestic shortages, via Reuters citing an official; customs will speed up the clearance for imported COVID medicines.
- USTR Office has announced a nine-month extension of tariff exclusion on 352 Chinese import product categories, according to Reuters.
- China is to maintain ample liquidity in 2023 to implement proactive fiscal policy, according to state media citing the PBoC Vice Governor.
- China’s Central Economic Work Conference suggested China will focus on stabilising its economy in 2023 and step up policy to ensure key targets are met, according to a statement cited by Reuters.
- PBoC injected CNY 9bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate maintained at 2.00%; injects CNY 76bln via 14-day reverse repos with the rate maintained at 2.15% – for a daily net injection CNY 83bln. according to Reuters.
- Toshiba Corp’s (6502 JT) preferred bidder JIP reportedly appears to be mulling a lower valuation for a buyout, according to Nikkei.
- Japan is reportedly eyeing an initial budget at a record JPY 114tln for FY23, according to Kyodo.
- Australia’s sovereign wealth fund is positioning for inflationary pressures to persist globally and believes that gold and other commodities will offset hindered returns across asset classes, according to Bloomberg.
- South Korean Finance Minister said the economy is slowing more rapidly than expected; economic slowdown is to be at its worst pace in H1 2023, via Reuters.
European bourses have commenced the week on a firmer footing, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.7%, shaking off the softer APAC handover in minimal newsflow. Sectors are firmer ex-Media/Real Estate, featuring outperformance in Energy after Friday’s pressure. Stateside, futures are similarly supported, ES +0.5%, in-tandem with the European tone ahead of a sparse US docket.
Top European News
- UK Chancellor Hunt has commissioned the OBR to prepare an economic & fiscal forecast, to be presented alongside the Spring Budget due 15th March, 2023.
- UK PM Sunak scrapped Liz Truss’ plan to purchase energy from foreign producers, according to Sky News. Elsewhere, Sunak is set to sign off an extension to the government’s energy support package for businesses for up to 12 months.
- Bank of France cut France’s 2023 growth forecast to 0.3% (prev. 0.5%) and cut the 2024 forecast to 1.2% (prev. 1.8%), according to Reuters.
- ECB’s de Guindos says the ECB will keep hiking rates and does not know when they will stop, not planning on altering the 2% mid-term price stability goal.
- ECB’s Simkus is in no doubt that there will be a 50bps hike in February.
- ECB’s Kazimir says rates will not only need to go to restrictive territory but stay there much longer.
FX
- USD has faded despite hawkish weekend Fed rhetoric, with the DXY nearer the lower-end of 10412-83 parameters.
- Action which benefits peers across the board, with marked outperformance in the JPY as USD/JPY gapped lower from the 136.69 close to either side of the figure.
- Antipodeans are the current best performers, with the Kiwi through 0.64 vs USD at best and AUD holding above 0.67.
- EUR is bid but to a slightly lesser extent despite hawkish (as expected) ECB rhetoric and strong German Ifo release while Cable has reclaimed 1.22 convincingly.
- ZAR is the marked outperformer after Ramaphosa secures re-election as ANC leader for the 2024 presidential campaign.
- PBoC sets USD/CNY mid-point at 6.9746 vs exp. 6.9753 (prev. 6.9791)
- South African President Ramaphosa has been re-elected as leader of the governing ANC party.
Fixed Income
- Bunds are facing modest pressure, though are off worst levels which occurred in wake of ECB’s Kazimir which prompted the 10yr German yield to test 2.20%, action which is being felt more keenly in the periphery.
- Gilts are the marked underperformers after last week’s relative resilience, with the UK yield around 3.45%.
- USTs are softer, but comparably more contained and haven’t really threatened a breach of initial early-European parameters.
Commodities
- A choppy but ultimately fairly contained start to the week for the crude benchmarks. Price action throughout the European morning has been two-way in nature and at times without an overt catalyst or driver.
- Currently, WTI & Brent Fed’23 are firmer by around USD 1.00/bbl on the session but are shy of their overnight peaks by around another USD 1.00/bbl, and as such are someway from last week’s respective USD 77.77/bbl and USD 75.26/bbl best levels.
- EU countries are reportedly mulling a gas price cap at levels lower than suggested to date, with the bloc set to meet on Monday in a bid to come to an agreement, according to a document cited by Reuters. Czech Republic proposed a EUR 188/MWh cap on Dutch TTF front-month contract vs the EUR 275/MWh cap originally suggested, according to Reuters.
- Saudi Aramco, Sinopec and SABIC have expanded refining and petrochemical cooperation and expect to start operations by the end of 2025, according to Reuters.
- Algeria is considering exporting its spare power capacity to Europe, according to the Algerian Energy Minister cited by Reuters.
- Uniper (UN01 GY) said the first German LNG terminal is to open in Wilhelmshaven; an annual volume of at least 5bcm of natural gas is expected to be imported, according to Reuters.
- El Paso Natural Gas Co. has lifted the force majeure at its Amarillo compressor station, according to Reuters.
- North Dakota Pipeline Authority said an estimated 200-250k BPD of oil was curtailed on Friday as a result of an extended storm system but anticipated a relatively quick return of production over the next several days, according to Reuters.
- USDA and USTR chiefs said Mexican officials have presented potential amendments to restrictions on genetically modified corn and other biotech products, according to Reuters.
- Indian antitrust agency raided some steel firms for alleged price collusion, according to Reuters sources.
- Peruvian President has urged congress to pass a bill to bring forward general elections amid protests, according to Reuters.
- Spot gold and silver are benefitting from the dented dollar while base metals derive support from the generally positive risk tone and the aforementioned unwinding of restrictions in China, with LME Copper firmer by over 1.0%.
Geopolitics
- Blasts were heard across Ukrainian capital Kyiv early Monday morning, according to a Reuters witness.
- Russian military stationed in Belarus are to conduct tactical exercises, according to Interfax citing the Russian Defence Ministry
- Ukrainian advisor Podolyak says, to European partners, Ukraine will not surrender to or fulfil the demands of Russia; adds, “War ending can only be accelerated by increasing artillery/tanks supply. Even unilaterally…”
- Qatari diplomat said Qatar has been “exclusively criticised and attacked” in the investigation into the European parliament, according to a statement cited by Reuters. Qatari diplomat added that “limiting dialogue and cooperation” on Qatar before the legal process has ended will negatively affect discussions on global energy security and security cooperation.
- North Korea fired two ballistic missiles towards the Korean Peninsula’s east coast on Sunday, according to the South Korean military cited by Reuters. The missiles appeared to have landed outside of Japan’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), according to NHK.
- US State Department said the US is gravely concerned that Iranian authorities are reportedly continuing to kill protesters, according to Reuters.
- Italian Economy Minister urged the EU to give a strong and strategic response to the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), and suggested some Italian companies are considering moving production to the US, according to Reuters.
- Australian PM said Foreign Minister Wong is to travel to Beijing on Tuesday at the invitation of China, according to Reuters.
US Event Calendar
- 10:00: Dec. NAHB Housing Market Index, est. 34, prior 33
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Well, I had Argentina in the research World Cup sweepstake. After hours of studying form, player fatigue, different systems, the climate etc., I skillfully closed my eyes and put my hand in a jar and pulled the winners out. I will try to not let my success change me.
As everyone recovers from a breathtaking final, it’ll be interesting to see whether market activity drops off a cliff this week as we approach Christmas even if there was lots of unfinished business after last week. The market doesn’t believe the Fed, with a pricing disconnect now opening up, and the market is now worried the ECB has upped its level of hawkishness. Outside of the ECB’s Guindos and Simkus speaking today we won’t hear much from these two central banks before Xmas so there is unlikely to be much official follow-through to last week’s meetings. It will therefore be left to quite a full slate of data to move markets in what is likely to be a week low on liquidity.
The US consumer will be a big focus with consumer confidence (Wednesday) and personal income data, along with PCE inflation (both Friday). We’ll also see various housing market and business activity indicators from the US, as well as Japan’s CPI report and PPI numbers from Europe.
Elsewhere, the BoJ will be the last major central bank to make a monetary policy decision this year tomorrow. It could be a bit more interesting than usual as we’ll see below.
In terms of some of the highlights now, we start with US housing. This is obviously a big focus at the moment and today’s NAHB housing index (33 DB forecast vs 33 previously), tomorrow’s housing starts (1.400mn vs. 1.425mn) and building permits (1.500mn vs. 1.512mn), Wednesday’s existing home sales (4.25mn vs. 4.43mn) and Friday’s new home sales (600k vs. 632k) will all be important. The hard data is all expected to slow further from last month.
Probably more important is Friday’s income and consumption report which contains the latest reading on core PCE. Our economists think it should come in at 0.2% mom (vs. 0.2% previously), taking the YoY rate down three-tenths to 4.7%. Normally core PCE is above core CPI but over the next 12 months our economists think that anomalies in healthcare components between the two means that the former will edge above the latter at 3.2% for 2023 Q4/Q4 against 3.1%. Friday also see the final revisions to the University of Michigan consumer sentiment, including the important consumer expectations of inflation.
Other business activity gauges for the US include durable goods orders on Friday, with both headline (DB forecast -3.5% vs +1.1% in October) and core (DB forecast unch vs +0.6%) seen showing signs of weakening by our US economists. Indicators of manufacturing activity from regional Feds are also due throughout the week. These releases will follow an array of downside surprises in activity-related gauges recently, including the fall in industrial production last Thursday.
Over in Europe, we will get PPIs from several countries starting with Germany tomorrow. As a reminder, the latest YoY reading stands at 34.5%, some way off the 45.8% peak reached in August. October’s report also showed the first MoM decrease in producer prices since May 2020 amid falling energy costs.
From central banks, all eyes will be on the BoJ tomorrow and we will also get minutes from their October meeting on Thursday. Our Chief Japan economist previews the meeting and addresses the potential for YCC revision or a policy assessment here.
The yen initially rallied as much as +0.61% this morning after Kyodo News reported on Saturday that Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida was looking to add flexibility around the 2% inflation goal and would discuss it with the next governor after Kuroda’s term ends in April. This follows Bloomberg last week reporting that a policy review is being considered for next year. However, some of the Japanese currency’s early gains today were reversed after a government spokesman denied the report and the Yen (+0.28%) is currently trading at $136.22.
Following the BoJ’s decision, the CPI report for Japan will be released on Thursday. Our Chief Japan economist (full preview here) expects the overall index to reach 3.9% YoY (vs +3.7% in October), the core index excluding fresh food to be up 3.8% (+3.6%), and core-core index excluding fresh food and energy to rise to 2.8% (+2.5%) as food and durable goods continue to be the key drivers of inflation.
Speaking of energy prices, EU energy ministers will meet today to resume talks regarding a natural gas price cap as well as other measures to cope with the energy crisis as winter looms.
Similar to the US, a number of sentiment indicators will be released in Europe. For Germany, they will include the Ifo survey today and the GfK’s consumer confidence reading on Wednesday. Manufacturing and consumer confidence will also be released for Italy on Friday.
Asian stock markets had a negative start to the final full trading week of 2022, tracking Friday’s losses on Wall Street as synchronised interest rate hikes and a hawkish tone from global central banks weigh on sentiment. Rising Covid-19 cases in China, particularly in Beijing, following the abandonment of Covid Zero are also adding to the bearish mood. Chinese equities are retreating with the Shanghai Composite (-1.31%) and the CSI (-1.03%) both in the red. The Nikkei (-1.15%), the KOSPI (-0.60%) and the Hang Seng (-0.45%) are also weak in early trading. In overnight trading, US stock futures are little changed with contracts on the S&P 500 (-0.06%) and the NASDAQ 100 (-0.07%) slightly down after posting two consecutive weekly losses.
In energy markets, oil futures have moved higher in Asian trading hours with Brent oil (+0.94%) trading at $79.81/bbl and WTI futures (+1.00%) at $75.03/bbl after China indicated its intention to revive consumption heading into 2023. Meanwhile, yields on 10Yr USTs are up +2.92 bps, trading at 3.51%.
Looking back at last week, it was a familiar 2022 story in markets since hawkish central bank announcements from the Fed and the ECB sparked a fresh selloff. The decisions themselves were actually in line with expectations, with both hiking by 50bps. But what struck investors was the much more aggressive tone on future rate hikes than the consensus had expected. For instance, the FOMC’s dot plot signalled that rates would be at 5.1% even by end-2023, which was up from 4.6% in the September dot plot. Meanwhile, the ECB said that rates would “still have to rise significantly”, with President Lagarde explicitly pointing to further 50bp moves ahead.
Given those developments, risk assets sold off across the board, with the S&P 500 ending the week -2.08% lower (-1.11% Friday). That was a massive turnaround from earlier in the week, when the index had surged on the back of the US CPI print on Tuesday that surprised to the downside. Indeed, by the close on Friday the S&P 500 was down -6.06% from its intraday peak for the week just after the release. It was a similar story elsewhere too, with the STOXX 600 down -3.28% over the week (-1.20% Friday), and the Nikkei down -1.34% (-1.87% Friday).
In Europe, sovereign bonds saw significant losses in light of the ECB’s rhetoric, and yields on 10yr German bunds rose by +21.9bps (+7.0bps Friday) to 2.14%. The moves at the front-end of the curve were even larger, with the 2yr German yield up +26.5bps (+3.7bps Friday) to a post-2008 high, which came as investors increased their expectations for the ECB terminal rate. For Treasuries there was a rather different reaction however, with 10yr yields ending the week down -9.6bps (+3.6bps Friday). That occurred as investors grew increasingly confident that the Fed would be able to keep long-term inflation in check, with the 10yr breakeven down to a nearly two-year low of 2.13%.
AND NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)
Modestly constructive risk tone after a softer APAC handover – Newsquawk US Market Open
MONDAY, DEC 19, 2022 – 06:47 AM
- European bourses have commenced the week on a firmer footing, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.7%, shaking off the softer APAC handover amid two-way COVID updates.
- Stateside, futures are similarly supported, ES +0.4%, in tandem with the European tone ahead of a sparse US docket
- USD has faded despite hawkish weekend Fed rhetoric, with the DXY nearer the lower-end of 104.12-83 parameters amid marked initial JPY strength
- Bunds are facing modest pressure, though they are off worst levels which occurred in the wake of ECB’s Kazimir, prompting the 10yr German yield to test 2.20%
- Choppy but contained session for crude while Dutch TTF deflates as gas cap discussions approach a potential conclusion
- Fed’s Mester (non-voter) said she expected the Fed to hike more than its median forecast, and the Fed will need to maintain rates for an extended period once hikes are done
- Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian PPI & US NAHB Housing Market Index
View the full premarket movers and news report.
Or why not try Newsquawk’s squawk box free for 7 days?
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- European bourses have commenced the week on a firmer footing, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.7%, shaking off the softer APAC handover in minimal newsflow.
- Sectors are firmer ex-Media/Real Estate, featuring outperformance in Energy after Friday’s pressure.
- Stateside, futures are similarly supported, ES +0.5%, in-tandem with the European tone ahead of a sparse US docket.
- Click here for more detail.
FX
- USD has faded despite hawkish weekend Fed rhetoric, with the DXY nearer the lower-end of 10412-83 parameters.
- Action which benefits peers across the board, with marked outperformance in the JPY as USD/JPY gapped lower from the 136.69 close to either side of the figure.
- Antipodeans are the current best performers, with the Kiwi through 0.64 vs USD at best and AUD holding above 0.67.
- EUR is bid but to a slightly lesser extent despite hawkish (as expected) ECB rhetoric and strong German Ifo release while Cable has reclaimed 1.22 convincingly.
- ZAR is the marked outperformer after Ramaphosa secures re-election as ANC leader for the 2024 presidential campaign.
- PBoC sets USD/CNY mid-point at 6.9746 vs exp. 6.9753 (prev. 6.9791)
- South African President Ramaphosa has been re-elected as leader of the governing ANC party.
- Click here for more detail.
Notable FX Expiries, NY Cut:
- Click here
FIXED INCOME
- Bunds are facing modest pressure, though are off worst levels which occurred in wake of ECB’s Kazimir which prompted the 10yr German yield to test 2.20%, action which is being felt more keenly in the periphery.
- Gilts are the marked underperformers after last week’s relative resilience, with the UK yield around 3.45%.
- USTs are softer, but comparably more contained and haven’t really threatened a breach of initial early-European parameters.
- Click here for more detail.
COMMODITIES
- A choppy but ultimately fairly contained start to the week for the crude benchmarks. Price action throughout the European morning has been two-way in nature and at times without an overt catalyst or driver.
- Currently, WTI & Brent Fed’23 are firmer by around USD 1.00/bbl on the session but are shy of their overnight peaks by around another USD 1.00/bbl, and as such are someway from last week’s respective USD 77.77/bbl and USD 75.26/bbl best levels.
- EU countries are reportedly mulling a gas price cap at levels lower than suggested to date, with the bloc set to meet on Monday in a bid to come to an agreement, according to a document cited by Reuters. Czech Republic proposed a EUR 188/MWh cap on Dutch TTF front-month contract vs the EUR 275/MWh cap originally suggested, according to Reuters.
- Saudi Aramco, Sinopec and SABIC have expanded refining and petrochemical cooperation and expect to start operations by the end of 2025, according to Reuters.
- Algeria is considering exporting its spare power capacity to Europe, according to the Algerian Energy Minister cited by Reuters.
- Uniper (UN01 GY) said the first German LNG terminal is to open in Wilhelmshaven; an annual volume of at least 5bcm of natural gas is expected to be imported, according to Reuters.
- El Paso Natural Gas Co. has lifted the force majeure at its Amarillo compressor station, according to Reuters.
- North Dakota Pipeline Authority said an estimated 200-250k BPD of oil was curtailed on Friday as a result of an extended storm system but anticipated a relatively quick return of production over the next several days, according to Reuters.
- USDA and USTR chiefs said Mexican officials have presented potential amendments to restrictions on genetically modified corn and other biotech products, according to Reuters.
- Indian antitrust agency raided some steel firms for alleged price collusion, according to Reuters sources.
- Peruvian President has urged congress to pass a bill to bring forward general elections amid protests, according to Reuters.
- Spot gold and silver are benefitting from the dented dollar while base metals derive support from the generally positive risk tone and the aforementioned unwinding of restrictions in China, with LME Copper firmer by over 1.0%.
- Click here for more detail.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- UK Chancellor Hunt has commissioned the OBR to prepare an economic & fiscal forecast, to be presented alongside the Spring Budget due 15th March, 2023.
- UK PM Sunak scrapped Liz Truss’ plan to purchase energy from foreign producers, according to Sky News. Elsewhere, Sunak is set to sign off an extension to the government’s energy support package for businesses for up to 12 months.
- Bank of France cut France’s 2023 growth forecast to 0.3% (prev. 0.5%) and cut the 2024 forecast to 1.2% (prev. 1.8%), according to Reuters.
- ECB’s de Guindos says the ECB will keep hiking rates and does not know when they will stop, not planning on altering the 2% mid-term price stability goal.
- ECB’s Simkus is in no doubt that there will be a 50bps hike in February.
- ECB’s Kazimir says rates will not only need to go to restrictive territory but stay there much longer.
NOTABLE DATA
- German Ifo Business Climate New (Dec) 88.6 vs. Exp. 87.4 (Prev. 86.3, Rev. 86.4); Ifo says the likelihood of a recession has reduced with today’s data.
- German Ifo Current Conditions New (Dec) 94.4 vs. Exp. 93.5 (Prev. 93.1, Rev. 93.2); Expectations New (Dec) 83.2 vs. Exp. 82.0 (Prev. 80.0, Rev. 80.2)
- UK CBI Trends – Orders (Dec) -6 vs. Exp. -9.0 (Prev. -5.0).
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- Fed’s Mester (non-voter) said she expected the Fed to hike more than its median forecast, and the Fed will need to maintain rates for an extended period once hikes are done, via Bloomberg TV. Mester sees tentative signs that inflation rises are stabilising, but not calling a peak. Mester said the timing of a Fed rate cut is not tied to a calendar and the Fed will have to keep Funds Rate above 5% next year. Mester sees growth slowing but does not forecast negative activity.
- Tesla (TSLA) CEO Musk, via a Twitter poll, asked if he should step down as the head of Twitter and said he will abide by the results of this poll. The poll currently tilts towards “Yes”; some of the recent weakness in Tesla shares had been attributed to Musk’s split focus across his companies.
GEOPOLITICS
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- Blasts were heard across Ukrainian capital Kyiv early Monday morning, according to a Reuters witness.
- Russian military stationed in Belarus are to conduct tactical exercises, according to Interfax citing the Russian Defence Ministry
- Ukrainian advisor Podolyak says, to European partners, Ukraine will not surrender to or fulfil the demands of Russia; adds, “War ending can only be accelerated by increasing artillery/tanks supply. Even unilaterally…”
OTHER
- Qatari diplomat said Qatar has been “exclusively criticised and attacked” in the investigation into the European parliament, according to a statement cited by Reuters. Qatari diplomat added that “limiting dialogue and cooperation” on Qatar before the legal process has ended will negatively affect discussions on global energy security and security cooperation.
- North Korea fired two ballistic missiles towards the Korean Peninsula’s east coast on Sunday, according to the South Korean military cited by Reuters. The missiles appeared to have landed outside of Japan’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), according to NHK.
- US State Department said the US is gravely concerned that Iranian authorities are reportedly continuing to kill protesters, according to Reuters.
- Italian Economy Minister urged the EU to give a strong and strategic response to the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), and suggested some Italian companies are considering moving production to the US, according to Reuters.
- Australian PM said Foreign Minister Wong is to travel to Beijing on Tuesday at the invitation of China, according to Reuters.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin is softer on the session, but resides towards the mid-point of relative narrow parameters.
APAC TRADE
BOJ
- Japan’s government is set to revise a 10-year-old joint statement with the BoJ that commits the central bank to achieve its 2% inflation “at the earliest date possible”, according to Kyodo. PM Kishida will aim at making the central bank’s 2% inflation target a more flexible goal with room for allowance, Kyodo reported. The new statement could remove the phrase “at the earliest date possible,” or change the language to clarify that the 2% inflation target is a medium- to long-term goal rather than one that needs to be achieved quickly, according to Kyodo. The PM will discuss details on how to revise the statement with a new BoJ governor, who will succeed Kuroda when his term ends in April.
- Japan’s government is to consider revising the joint statement with BoJ signed in 2013 under the new BoJ governor to be appointed next year, according to Reuters sources. Sources added there is no consensus on what changes could be made, and discussions are likely to intensify next month.
- Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Matsuno said there is no truth to the reports that the government is set to change the joint statement signed with the BoJ in 2013, and added that the government hopes to continue working closely with the BoJ, according to Reuters.
- Ex-BoJ Deputy Governor Yamaguchi said the BoJ must stand ready to tweak YCC next year if Japan’s economy can withstand overseas economic risks; one idea would be to raise the 10yr JGB yield target from the current 0%. He said the BoJ must enhance the flexibility of its policy by removing the commitment to keep increasing the pace of money printing until inflation stably exceeds 2%, and does not see merit in changing BoJ’s joint statement with the government now, according to Reuters.
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks eventually traded lower across the board following the downbeat performance on Wall Street on Friday.
- ASX 200 was weighed on by its heavyweight Financials and Healthcare sectors but losses were cushioned by gains in the metals-related names.
- Nikkei 225 was pressured following weekend reports that Japan’s government is set to revise a 10-year-old joint statement with the BoJ that commits the central bank to achieve its 2% inflation “at the earliest date possible,” while Toshiba Corp shares slid over 5% amid Nikkei reports that its preferred bidder JIP reportedly appears to be mulling a lower valuation for a buyout.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were initially mixed but the former failed to hold onto opening gains whilst the latter overlooked the PBoC injecting fresh funds via 14-day reverse repo for the first time in nearly two months, with sentiment dampened by reports of two COVID-related deaths in mainland China.
- US equity futures traded flat within tight ranges – the ES March contract remained under 3,900.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- China reported two new COVID-related deaths in the mainland on December 18th vs zero a day earlier, according to Reuters.
- China’s Shanghai Education Bureau said it is to shut down all in-person classes in kindergartens and childcare centres in the city from December 19th due to COVID-19 infections, according to Reuters.
- Chip maker Renesas Electronics (6723 JT) suspended work at its Beijing plant from Friday for several days due to the spread of COVID-19 in the city, according to Reuters.
- Beijing has removed or adjusted 126 COVID-19 prevention measures, and all factories and construction sites above designated size and commercial buildings in the city have fully resumed work, officials cited by Global Times said Sunday.
- Macau’s government is to cancel COVID risk regulations for mainland China from Tuesday; arrivals from China must have a negative COVID test in the last 72 hours, according to Reuters.
- Hong Kong leader Lee to begin a four-day trip to Beijing on Wednesday, at which he is expected to discuss the reopening of the border with mainland China, via SCMP citing sources.
- Beijing, China is to buy imported COVID medicines to relive pressure on domestic shortages, via Reuters citing an official; customs will speed up the clearance for imported COVID medicines.
- USTR Office has announced a nine-month extension of tariff exclusion on 352 Chinese import product categories, according to Reuters.
- China is to maintain ample liquidity in 2023 to implement proactive fiscal policy, according to state media citing the PBoC Vice Governor.
- China’s Central Economic Work Conference suggested China will focus on stabilising its economy in 2023 and step up policy to ensure key targets are met, according to a statement cited by Reuters.
- PBoC injected CNY 9bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate maintained at 2.00%; injects CNY 76bln via 14-day reverse repos with the rate maintained at 2.15% – for a daily net injection CNY 83bln. according to Reuters.
- Toshiba Corp’s (6502 JT) preferred bidder JIP reportedly appears to be mulling a lower valuation for a buyout, according to Nikkei.
- Japan is reportedly eyeing an initial budget at a record JPY 114tln for FY23, according to Kyodo.
- Australia’s sovereign wealth fund is positioning for inflationary pressures to persist globally and believes that gold and other commodities will offset hindered returns across asset classes, according to Bloomberg.
- South Korean Finance Minister said the economy is slowing more rapidly than expected; economic slowdown is to be at its worst pace in H1 2023, via Reuters.
DATA RECAP
- Chinese Business Confidence Index (Dec) 48.1 (Prev. 51.8); lowest since January 2013, according to World Economics Survey.
- New Zealand Consumer Confidence (Q4) 75.6 (Prev. 87.6)
1.c MONDAY//SUNDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 60.74 PTS OR 1.92% //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 97.86 OR 0.53% /The Nikkei closed DOWN 289.43 OR 1.05% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.21% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP TO 6.9738//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP TO 6.9726// /Oil UP TO 75.14 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 79.63 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN. ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER
2 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/
end
2B JAPAN
/
JAPAN/
END
3c CHINA /
CHINA/
Another good read; Pepe Escobar on Xi and Saudi Arabia and the new Petroyuan
(Pepe Escobar)
Escobar: Xi Of Arabia & The PetroYuan Drive
FRIDAY, DEC 16, 2022 – 11:40 PM
Authored by Pepe Escobar via The Cradle,
Xi Jinping has made an offer difficult for the Arabian Peninsula to ignore: China will be guaranteed buyers of your oil and gas, just pay us in yuan…
It would be so tempting to qualify Chinese President Xi Jinping landing in Riyadh a week ago, welcomed with royal pomp and circumstance, as Xi of Arabia proclaiming the dawn of the petroyuan era.
But it’s more complicated than that. As much as the seismic shift implied by the petroyuan move applies, Chinese diplomacy is way too sophisticated to engage in direct confrontation, especially with a wounded, ferocious Empire. So there’s way more going here than meets the (Eurasian) eye.
Xi of Arabia’s announcement was a prodigy of finesse: it was packaged as the internationalization of the yuan. From now on, Xi said, China will use the yuan for oil trade, through the Shanghai Petroleum and National Gas Exchange, and invited the Persian Gulf monarchies to get on board. Nearly 80 percent of trade in the global oil market continues to be priced in US dollars.
Ostensibly, Xi of Arabia, and his large Chinese delegation of officials and business leaders, met with the leaders of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) to promote increased trade. Beijing promised to “import crude oil in a consistent manner and in large quantities from the GCC.” And the same goes for natural gas.
China has been the largest importer of crude on the planet for five years now – half of it from the Arabian peninsula, and more than a quarter from Saudi Arabia. So it’s no wonder that the prelude for Xi of Arabia’s lavish welcome in Riyadh was a special op-ed expanding the trading scope, and praising increased strategic/commercial partnerships across the GCC, complete with “5G communications, new energy, space and digital economy.”
Foreign Minister Wang Yi doubled down on the “strategic choice” of China and wider Arabia. Over $30 billion in trade deals were duly signed – quite a few significantly connected to China’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects.
And that brings us to the two key connections established by Xi of Arabia: the BRI and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).
The Silk Roads of Arabia
BRI will get a serious boost by Beijing in 2023, with the return of the Belt and Road Forum. The first two bi-annual forums took place in 2017 and 2019. Nothing happened in 2021 because of China’s strict zero-Covid policy, now abandoned for all practical purposes.
The year 2023 is pregnant with meaning as BRI was first launched 10 years ago by Xi, first in Central Asia (Astana) and then Southeast Asia (Jakarta).
BRI not only embodies a complex, multi-track trans-Eurasian trade/connectivity drive but it is the overarching Chinese foreign policy concept at least until the mid-21st century. So the 2023 forum is expected to bring to the forefront a series of new and redesigned projects adapted to a post-Covid and debt-distressed world, and most of all to the loaded Atlanticism vs. Eurasianism geopolitical and geoeconomic sphere.
Also significantly, Xi of Arabia in December followed Xi of Samarkand in September – his first post-Covid overseas trip, for the SCO summit in which Iran officially joined as a full member. China and Iran in 2021 clinched a 25-year strategic partnership deal worth a potential $400 billion in investments. That’s the other node of China’s two-pronged West Asia strategy.
The nine permanent SCO members now represent 40 percent of the world’s population. One of their key decisions in Samarkand was to increase bilateral trade, and overall trade, in their own currencies.
And that further connects us to what has happening in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, in full synchronicity with Riyadh: the meeting of the Supreme Eurasia Economic Council, the policy implementation arm of the Eurasia Economic Union (EAEU).
Russian President Vladimir Putin, in Kyrgyzstan, could not have been more straightforward: “The work has accelerated in the transition to national currencies in mutual settlements… The process of creating a common payment infrastructure and integrating national systems for the transmission of financial information has begun.”
The next Supreme Eurasian Economic Council will take place in Russia in May 2023, ahead of the Belt and Road Forum. Take them together and we have the lineaments of the geoeconomic road map ahead: the drive towards the petroyuan proceeding in parallel to the drive towards a “common paying infrastructure” and most of all, a new alternative currency bypassing the US dollar.
That’s exactly what the head of the EAEU’s macroeconomic policy, Sergey Glazyev, has been designing, side by side with Chinese specialists.
Total Financial War
The move towards the petroyuan will be fraught with immense peril.
In every serious geoeconomic gaming scenario, it’s a given that an enfeebled petrodollar translates as the end of the imperial free lunch in effect for over five decades.
Concisely, in 1971, then-US President Richard “Tricky Dick” Nixon pulled the US from the gold standard; three years later, after the 1973 oil shock, Washington approached the Saudi oil minister, notorious Sheikh Yamani, with the proverbial offer-you-can’t-refuse: we buy your oil in US dollars and in return you buy our Treasury bonds, lots of weapons, and recycle whatever’s left in our banks.
Cue to Washington now suddenly able to dispense helicopter money – backed by nothing – ad infinitum, and the US dollar as the ultimate hegemonic weapon, complete with an array of sanctions over 30 nations who dare to disobey the unilaterally imposed “rules-based international order.”
Impulsively rocking this imperial boat is anathema. So Beijing and the GCC will adopt the petroyuan slowly but surely, and certainly with zero fanfare. The heart of the matter, once again, is their mutual exposure to the Western financial casino.
In the Chinese case, what to do, for instance, with those whopping $1 trillion in US Treasury bonds. In the Saudi case, it’s hard to think about “strategic autonomy” – such as what’s enjoyed by Iran – when the petrodollar is a staple of the Western financial system. The menu of possible imperial reactions includes everything from a soft coup/ regime change to Shock and Awe over Riyadh – followed by regime change.
Yet what the Chinese – and the Russians – are aiming at goes way beyond a Saudi (and Emirati) predicament. Beijing and Moscow have clearly identified how everything – the oil market, global commodities markets – is tied to the role of the US dollar as reserve currency.
And that’s exactly what the EAEU discussions; the SCO discussions; from now on the BRICS+ discussions; and Beijing’s two-pronged strategy across West Asia are focused to undermine.
Beijing and Moscow, within the BRICS framework, and further on within the SCO and the EAEU, have been closely coordinating their strategy since the first sanctions on Russia post-Maidan 2014, and the de facto trade war against China unleashed in 2018.
Now, after the February 2022 Special Military Operation launched by Moscow in Ukraine and NATO has devolved into, for all practical purposes, war against Russia, we have stepped beyond Hybrid War territory and are deep into Total Financial War.
SWIFTly drifting away
The whole Global South absorbed the “lesson” of the collective (institutional) west freezing, as in stealing, the foreign reserves of a G20 member, on top of it a nuclear superpower. If that happened to Russia, it could happen to anyone. There are no “rules” anymore.
Russia since 2014 has been improving its SPFS payment system, in parallel with China’s CIPS, both bypassing the western-led SWIFT banking messaging system, and increasingly used by Central Banks across Central Asia, Iran and India. All across Eurasia, more people are ditching Visa and Mastercard and using UnionPay and/or Mir cards, not to mention Alipay and WeChat Pay, both extremely popular across Southeast Asia.
Of course the petrodollar – and the US dollar, still representing under 60 percent of global foreign exchange reserves – will not ride into oblivion overnight. Xi of Arabia is just the latest chapter in a seismic shift now driven by a select group in the Global South, and not by the former “hyperpower.”
Trading in their own currencies and a new, global alternative currency is right at the top of the priorities of that long list of nations – from South America to Northern Africa and West Asia – eager to join BRICS+ or the SCO, and in quite a few cases, both.
The stakes could not be higher. And it’s all about subjugation or exercising full sovereignty. So let’s leave the last essential words to the foremost diplomat of our troubled times, Russia’s Sergey Lavrov, at the international interparty conference Eurasian Choice as a Basis for Strengthening Sovereignty:
“The main reason for today’s growing tensions is the stubborn striving of the collective West to maintain a historically diminishing domination in the international arena by any means it can… It is impossible to impede the strengthening of the independent centers of economic growth, financial might and political influence. They are emerging on our common continent of Eurasia, in Latin America, the Middle East and Africa.”
All aboard…the Sovereign Train.
END
CHINA/RUSSIA
The USA does not like to see this:
(zerohedge)
China, Russia “Strengthen Cooperation” With Large-Scale Joint Navy Drills
MONDAY, DEC 19, 2022 – 04:40 PM
Russia and China have announced new large-scale joint naval drills to be held this week in the East China Sea at a moment the West has continued to be alarmed that relations between Moscow and Beijing have remained unfazed by the Ukraine war.
The Russian defense ministry (MoD) announced the drills will be held December 21-27, with a purpose to “strengthen cooperation between the two navies to maintain peace and stability in the Asian Pacific region.” There will also be an anti-submarine warfare and missile launch training component to the drills.
“The Russian fleet at the exercise will be represented by [the] Pacific Fleet flagship, the missile cruiser Varyag, the frigate Marshal Shaposhnikov, and [two] corvettes,” the Russian MoD statement continued.
Dubbed the “Maritime Cooperation 2022” exercise, air forces from both countries are also expected to continue patrolling the Sea of Japan and East China Sea, as they’ve been observed doing of late.
The AP reports based on official statements, “The Russian Defense Ministry said the Varyag missile cruiser, the Marshal Shaposhnikov destroyer and two corvettes of Russia’s Pacific Fleet would take part in maneuvers in the East China Sea starting Wednesday.”
“The ministry said the Chinese navy planned to deploy several surface warships and a submarine for the exercise,” AP continues. “Russian and Chinese aircraft will also take part in the drills, according to the ministry.”
Large groupings of warships have been observed en route just ahead of the drills, with a detachment of Russia’s Pacific Fleet having departed the far eastern port of Vladivostok.
As for the Chinese side, Japan’s Defense Ministry previously said it monitored at least nine Chinese navy warships entering the western Pacific in preparation, including the Liaoning aircraft carrier.
“The Liaoning was spotted transiting from the East China Sea to the western Pacific Ocean through the Miyako Strait, between Japan’s Miyako and Okinawa islands, last Friday,” writes South China Morning Post. “It was escorted by the Type 055 destroyer 103 Anshan, Type 052D destroyer Chengdu, Type 054A frigate Zaozhuang, and the Type 901 supply ship Hulunhu.”
The US has sought to pressure Beijing to back off its “no limits” partnership with Moscow (as was declared not long before Russia’s Feb.24 invasion of Ukraine); however, clearly all signals point in the other direction – that China has remained unswayed and is in fact deepening cooperation even on a military level.
END
Robert H on the above topic:
Xi of Arabia and the petroyuan drive
The world is changing in ways not seen since 1945. The decision to kick Russia off Swift and sequester their State Capital holdings derived from the sale of resources ended any concept of a Rules based international order. The fed system previously proved its’ ability and insensitively in high jacking Private Capital taking State Capital theft to a new level.
What we are seeing is shift of financial settlement move away from the USD to alternative currencies with the Yuan as the big winner. China could not have asked for a better clown show than the one in DC who seems incapable of understanding they have blown their hand and are losing the pot. Sadly inept decision making of this show has an impact on everyone affected by the value and velocity of USD in use in settlement of trade. Clearly, if trade is being settled in alternative currencies both velocity and value change becoming much lower. Each day the biggest trade settlement is for energy. Once that is significantly altered the value of USD is forced to decline as its’ requirement is lessened. And because of that lower levels of dollar holdings are required abroad. And this directly affects current money centers like London and Hong Kong etc in dollar based trading. It also challenges the value of many derivatives putting values and counter party settlement capability at risk.
The counter balance to this is interest rates increasing which actually lessens the impact since many international borrowers in USD are forced to roll debt over capitalizing interest not able to be paid making them more captive to a dollar centric world. This is why rates are rising to protect hegemony and the inflation caused by a lower valued dollar. And the fallout is in related currencies trying to hold relative value in relation by also raising rates to escape the reality of currency value that will be lower in the future and to put off the bite of USD dollar borrowings made during the lockdowns, effectively making many nations vassals under the burden of being indentured debtors.
As the dollar is regulated to find new levels of utility and value, everyone dependent on it by location or related currency will have impact in correlation to find equilibrium with this new reality.
https://thecradle.co/Article/Columns/19565
END
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS/UK AFFAIRS//
EUROPE/NATURAL GAS //WEATHER
The European Disaster that found a home
I have several times written about the GAS CRISIS in Europe with little realized concern as politicians spew their balderdash about readiness. It is a lie.
. So let me try one time to be clear! Gas levels in storage are down to 86% and falling rapidly. I have written about the need to have pressure coming in to storage facilities to continue to receive flow. It seems no one understands or cares.
At some point and it will not be 50% flow will cease without alternative injection systems to gas itself. At that point, Europe will freeze. and General Winter will create havoc not seen before. Already various governments expect thousands to die of cold and this number can be quite higher.
Buy woolens and be prepared because no one will do for you. And if you have relatives abroad think about a extended visit.END
END
5.UKRAINE RUSSIA//GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
UKRAINE/RUSSIA//USA/ESTONIA
Russia is not happy with this: USA sends infantry unit to a base just a few miles from Russian border (Kaliningrad)
(zerohedge)
US Sends Infantry Unit To Base Just Miles Away From Russian Border In Estonia
FRIDAY, DEC 16, 2022 – 07:20 PM
Last week the US Embassy in Lithuania announced the Pentagon plans to step up troop deployments in the Baltic states, taking what was previously categorized as “episodic” troop deployments and turning toward a “persistent rotational presence” across the Baltics, including in Estonia – which shares two small stretches of land-border with Russia.
The embassy wrote in an early December press release that “US Ambassador Robert Gilchrist informed Minister of National Defense Arvydas Anušauskas that, as part of the ongoing commitment to its Baltic Allies, the United States will further enhance the continuous and persistent US military presence in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.” This was widely interpreted as a direct response to Russia’s ten-month long assault on nearby Ukraine. Armored military vehicles parade with NATO forces in Estonia a few hundred feet from the Russian border in February 2015. Image: Estonian Armed Forces
In follow-up, on Friday the government of Estonia confirmed that a US infantry company has newly arrived in the country, to take part of joint defense drills and training.
According to the the Friday statement posted to the Estonian defense ministry’s website: “A United States infantry company arrived at Taara base in Võru this week as part of a deployment to train and serve with the 2nd Infantry Brigade of the Estonian Defense Forces.”
It further confirmed that “The U.S. infantry company will be stationed in Võru during its deployment and will participate in joint exercises with the Estonian Defense Forces to enhance interoperability and to demonstrate the flexibility of combat credible forces to respond to threats.”
Crucially, Taara base in Võru is a mere dozens of miles away from the Russian border – merely about a half-hour away by car. Russian state media has complained that US-Estonia troop exercises will be conducted a mere 20 kilometers away from the border.
The US 1st Infantry Division Artillery Commander cited in Estonia’s statement, Colonel Richard Ikena, said American troops are “excited to be in Estonia” and “look forward to working shoulder-to-shoulder, alongside our Allies.”
US Infantry troops along with a HIMARS (long-range missile) platoon will now be conducting drills at a distance from the Russian border that’s similar to the distance between San Diego and Tijuana, Mexico…Map source: Nations Online Project
Additionally, the statement confirmed that the US is deploying long-range missiles in the NATO allied country, to now include M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) deployed by the US right on Russia’s doorstep.
“The United States will also deploy a HIMARS platoon to Estonia, along with the corresponding control equipment and systems, and will cooperate with the Estonian Defense Forces to establish a divisional structure within the framework of NATO,” the US military and Estonian defense ministry confirmed.
Already there have been ratcheting tensions between Moscow and the Baltic states, given that among European nations they have been among the most hawkish in calling for isolating and punishing the Russian government. A heightened US troops deployment along with long-range missiles will certainly escalation these tensions as the war in Ukraine continues to grow more dangerous and unpredictable, especially concerning the potential scenario of direct US-Russia clashes.
END
SERBIA/KOSOVO
War is being sprung on multiple fronts.
Serbia seeks troop deployment in Northern Kosovo
(Dave DeCamp/Antiwar)
Serbia Seeks Troop Deployment In Kosovo, Informs NATO
SATURDAY, DEC 17, 2022 – 07:00 AM
Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,
Serbia has formally asked NATO if it can deploy up to 1,000 troops into northern Kosovo, where Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic says ethnic Serbs are being “terrorized” by the Kosovo government based in Pristina.
Vucic made the request to the commander of NATO forces in Kosovo, known as KFOR. Serbian officials say that a UN resolution that formally ended the Kosovo war allows for the deployment of up to 1,000 Serbian troops into Kosovo, but Vucic still doesn’t expect the request to be granted.Image via OWP
“The request says that a certain number of (Serbian troops), from one hundred to up to 1,000, return to Kosovo,” he said.
Tensions have been high in northern Kosovo since the summer when Pristina tried to implement a policy that would require ethnic Serbs to acquire license plates issued by Kosovo. Serbs in the area don’t recognize the government in Pristina and still use Belgrade-issued documents to cross the border.
Serbia and Kosovo failed to reach a deal in talks back in November, as Pristina wants any agreement to involve recognition from Belgrade. According to RT, Serbs have barricaded border crossings between Serbia and Kosovo to protest the deployment of ethnic Albanian police in the area.
Serbia wants to deploy troops to secure the border crossings and says NATO forces cannot protect the Kosovo Serbs from ethnic Albanians. KFOR previously threatened to intervene if “stability is jeopardized” in northern Kosovo when tensions were high over the summer and would likely take action if Serbia went ahead with the troop deployment.
KFOR has been present in the breakaway former Serbian province of Kosovo since the US and NATO 1999 bombing campaign against Serbia. Kosovo formally declared its independence in 2008, but it’s not recognized by enough countries to have a seat at the UN.
Currently, there are about 3,700 NATO troops deployed under the KFOR mission, including over 600 US troops.
end
From Robert H:
The threat of expanding conflict is rising quickly
I will say this plainly, if you are on the border with Ukraine or near a military base in Poland, get out while you can. There are many moving pieces on the ground now that offer little opportunity to prepare. The same goes for Romania where 90,000 NATO troops are massed. Once they go they will have to go through Moldova onto the Ukraine where no doubt they will be met by missiles and no doubt a US air escalation. And this will lead in quick order to a direct Cuban missile crisis not seen since the Kennedy era. Be certain there is no competent inhabitant in the White House, like Kennedy. There is only many strings being pulled and the script is up to the teleprompter writers.
Russian war materials factories have now gone to a 6 day work week. If they go to a 7 day week schedule 24/7 Europe will be on fire. Current activity is to maintain a battle readiness and equipment capability outside of what is being moved into forward positions for the upcoming campaign to maintain a ready reserve status taking into account losses anticipated in the near future. And this is not old equipment but new equipment. Older missiles and artillery shells are being used up and replaced by modern more deadly armaments.
12/17/22
By WarNews24/7
Translated from Greek
For the first time since the start of the war in Ukraine, Russia has directly accused the US and Poland of attacks against Russian targets deep inside the country.
This is not just escalation but the cause of a Third World War. Moscow now has the right to self-defense and is legitimized to hit, at least, targets in Poland.
Data from intercepted Ukrainian drones confirm the involvement of the US and Poland in preparing attacks on Russia, a source from the Russian security services told TASS.
“Competent services of the Russian Federation analyzed electronic components of the intercepted unmanned aerial vehicles, used by Ukraine for attacks on objects of Russian infrastructure – in particular in Sevastopol, Crimea, Kursk, Belgorod and Voronezh regions, ” the service said.
According to the estimates of experts in Russia, “a number of events confirm the direct involvement of the USA and Poland in the massive military-logistical support of the Kiev regime, in the preparation and implementation of joint terrorist attacks on the ground of the Russian Federation”.
Moscow claims that “the drone avionics and control stations were manufactured by American Spektreworks, a company that performed the initial coordination and control of the drones at Scottsdale Airport in Arizona.”
In addition, the relevant services emphasized that “the final assembly and flight tests of these drones took place on Polish territory, near the Rzeszow airport, which is used by the US and NATO as the main supply hub for the Ukrainian armed forces . “
“The installation of the payload, the flight mission and the launch itself were carried out from Odessa and Krivoy Rog,” claim Russian experts.
Ukrainian drones hit the military airfields Engels-2 (Saratov Region) and Diaghilev (Ryazan Region) on December 6. These strikes were followed by the eighth massive missile attack against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.
Medvedev’s message to Poles, Americans & British
Yesterday’s statements by Medvedev were by no means accidental. Russian Security Council Vice Chairman Dmitry Medvedev outlined legitimate military targets for Russia via his Telegram channel.
According to his statements, legitimate military targets for Russia may include the military-political leadership of the enemy country and the armed forces of other countries that are allies of the enemy country.
Dmitry Medvedev said that during the current conflict with Ukraine, the question of legitimate military targets is interpreted in different ways, but there are “rules of conduct during war, which are rooted in sacred sources.”
Analytically:
“What are considered legitimate military targets today? Under the so-called rules of war, these are:
Any enemy troops (legal and illegal combatants) not formally withdrawn from their armed forces.
All military and auxiliary equipment of the enemy.
Any objects related to military infrastructure, as well as civilian infrastructure that contributes to the achievement of military objectives (bridges, transport stations, roads, energy facilities, factories and workshops, at least partial fulfillment of military orders, etc.).
The military-political leadership of the enemy country.
The armed forces of other countries that officially entered the war, which are allies of the enemy country, and the objects located on their territory, referred to in paragraphs 1-4.
Today, however, there is a basic question: can the hybrid war, which NATO declared de facto in our country, be considered the Alliance’s entry into the war against Russia? Can the supply of a huge amount of weapons to Ukraine be considered an attack on Russia?
And accordingly, the military objectives of the North Atlantic bloc are listed in paragraphs. 1-4 of this note?
The leaders of NATO countries sing with one voice that their countries and the entire bloc are not at war with Russia.
But everyone knows very well that everything is different…”.
end
Pepe Escobar on the state of affairs inside Ukraine
(Pepe Escobar)
Escobar: News From The NATOstan-Imposed Meat Grinder
MONDAY, DEC 19, 2022 – 02:00 AM
Authored by Pepe Escobar,
Somewhere in her private pantheon, Pallas Athena, Goddess of Geopolitics, is immensely enjoying the show.
No one ever lost money capitalizing on the unlimited nonsense spewed out by the collective deer-caught-in-the-headlights also known as Western mainstream media – complete with showering Person of the Year awards on a megalomaniac, cocaine-fueled lousy actor impersonating a warlord.
The non-stop trashy parade of Western military analysts is now “assessing” that the first targets of an incoming, joint Russia-Belarus attack on the 404 black hole formerly known as Ukraine will be Lviv, Lutsk, Rivne, Zhytomyr, and why not throw Kiev in the mix straight out of a second axis.
The Russian General Staff is attentively monitoring all the action and may even follow the advice of such “analysts”.
And then there’s outright panic, as the Ministry of Defense announced that the Strategic Missile Forces have loaded two Yars ICBMs into their intended silos. Cue to widespread shrieks of horror of the “Russia Readies Nuclear Missile Capable Of Striking Deep Into US” variety.
Some facts though never change. Number One is NATO as a figment of the collective West’s – extremely impaired – imagination. If push ever came to shove – as Straussian/neo-con armchair warriors hope and pray – Russia can conveniently defeat the whole of NATO as there is hardly anything “there”.
That, of course, would require a massive Russian mobilization. As it stands, Russia may look feeble in a few quarters as they activated at best 100,000 troops against possibly 1 million Ukrainian troops. It’s as if Moscow was not exactly seduced by the idea of “winning” – which may be the case, in a quite twisted way.
Even now, Moscow has not mobilized enough troops to occupy Ukraine – which, in theory, would be imperative to completely “denazify” the Kiev racket. The operative concept though is “in theory”. Moscow in fact is busy demonstrating a completely new theory – irrespective of the fact that a few exalted souls have been peddling that Putin should be replaced by the FSB’s Alexander Bortnikov.
“There will be nothing left of the enemy”
With its array of hypersonic missiles, Russia can knock out all NATO bridges, ports, airports as well as power stations, oil and natural gas storage, Rotterdam oil and natural gas installations, in a matter of a few hours. All energy production equipment across NATOstan would be destroyed. Europe would be shut off from natural resources. A dazed and confused Empire would be unable to move troops, any troops, to Europe.
And still provocations run unabated. The recent attack by Tu-141 Ukrainian drones against Engels-2 airbase was blamed by Moscow on Kiev – which predictably denied all responsibility. Yet what really mattered was Moscow’s strategic messaging to US/NATO, with Putin flirting with the notion that sooner or later the response may be up a serious notch in case US/NATO weaponry supplied to Kiev is used to strike deep into sensitive Russian Federation territory.
The current Russian doctrine even allows Moscow to respond with nuclear strikes; after all Engels-2 airbase is home to nuclear-capable bombers, prime strategic assets.
The drones were certainly launched by infiltrated agents inside Russian territory. If they had originated from outside Russia, and interpreted as nuclear missiles, that could have triggered the launch against NATOstan of hundreds of Russian nuclear missiles.
Putin himself made it – ominously – quite clear at the Eurasia Economic Council summit in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, a week ago:
“I assure you, after the early warning system receives a signal of a missile attack, hundreds of our missiles are in the air (…) It is impossible to stop them (…) There will be nothing left of the enemy, because it is impossible to intercept a hundred missiles. This, of course, is a deterrent – a serious deterrent.”
Not, of course, to the stupidity-corroded Straussian-neocon gang who are actually running American foreign “policy”.
It’s no wonder reliable Russian intel sources established that the missiles that hit Engels-2 were locally launched, though the Kiev regime desired it to be believed otherwise.
And that turns the whole charade into a Dadaist farce – with a dazed and confused Empire still bound to a maniac in Kiev who still believes that the Ukrainian S-300 that hit Poland came from Russia. Cue to the whole world – and not only Washington – as hostage to a “Person of the Year” maniac with the – virtual – power of provoking a worldwide nuclear war.
Red Napoleon in da house
Meanwhile, on the ground, Russia has gone Deep Operations Strategy, big time. In several spots along the extensive frontline, they attack the points that are most likely to draw out poor Ukrainian reserves hiding in the second line of defense. When reserves come out through barren, muddy lands and terrible roads to the rescue of frontline units, entire battalions are massacred.
Russians never go deep into the third line – where command and control may be located. What’s in play is attrition warfare under Deep Operations Strategy, straight out of the playbook of the legendary “Red Napoleon”, Field Marshall Mikhail Tukhachevsky.
Russia saves soldiers, personnel and equipment. The whole thing works wonders in difficult terrain where vehicles get bogged down in rainy roads. This rinse and repeat tactic, day in day out, for months on end has led to (at least) 400,000 Ukrainian casualties. Call it the epitome of Attritional Warfare.
Historians will relish that the whole scenario resembles the Battle of Agincourt – where wave after wave of French Knights (playing the role of present day Ukrainians, and Polish/NATO mercenaries) kept running uphill against English archers and knights who just stood still and let them come, hitting the second line again and again.
The difference, of course, is that Russians are employing attritional warfare tactics day after day for six months now, while Agincourt was just one battle in a single day. By the time this meat grinder is over an entire generation of Ukrainians and Poles will have gone to meet their maker.
The collective West’s myth of a Ukrainian “victory” against the Russian war of attrition does not even qualify as cosmic delusion. It’s a lousy, lethal joke. The only way out would be to sit down at the negotiating table, now, before the hammer (the next Russian offensive) comes down on the anvil (the existing frontline).
But NATO, of course, as Stultifying Stoltenberg keeps reminding the world, does not do negotiations.
Which, in a sense, may be a blessing, as NATO may end up breaking up in myriad pieces, totally humiliated on the ground despite all its elaborate warmongering plans.
Andrei Martyanov has been peerless tracking the collective West’s complete economic, moral, intellectual – and most of all military – degradation, everything drenched in lies, lousy P.R. twists and “stupefying incompetence across the board.”
All this while Russia prepares “for yet another ‘defeat’, like retaking all of Donbass and then… Who knows what then. A quick win for Russia would be a loss because NATO would still exist. No, Russia has to pace this so as it sucks in NATO into the grinder.”
Somewhere in her private pantheon, Pallas Athena, Goddess of Geopolitics, is immensely enjoying the show. Oh, wait; she’s actually reincarnated, and her name is Maria Zakharova
end
Late in the afternoon:
Kremlin: “US & Russia On The Brink Of A Direct Clash” In Ukraine
MONDAY, DEC 19, 2022 – 03:40 PM
The Kremlin is urgently calling on Washington to avoid further escalation over its support to Ukraine’s military, on the same day that President Vladimir Putin made a rare state visit to neighboring Belarus, amid growing fears that Belarusian armed forces could enter the fighting in Ukraine.
Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said Monday that the United States’ “dangerous and short-sighted policy” has put it “on the brink of a direct clash” with Moscow, according to state media reports.
“It is the US’ desire to maintain American hegemony at all costs… as well as its arrogant unwillingness to engage in a serious dialogue on security guarantees” that led to the current crisis, she continued, in reference to Moscow’s last February pre-invasion appeal for “guarantees” that Ukraine would not enter NATO.
State media described the sharp words as a necessary reaction to US State Department Spokesman Ned Price’s recently placing sole blame on Moscow for the rapid deterioration in US-Russia relations. Price had characterized the current state of relations as “unstable and unpredictable”.
Zakharova continued in the Monday remarks: “After the high-profile fiasco in Afghanistan, America is increasingly drawn into a new conflict, not only supporting the neo-Nazi regime in Kiev financially and with weapons, but also increasing its military presence on the ground.” While not specifying the precise accusation regarding a US “presence on the ground” – this could be a reference to recent widespread reporting that US intelligence has expanded its role in helping the Ukrainians, especially with things like targeting.
“This is a dangerous and short-sighted policy that puts the US and Russia on the brink of a direct clash,” the FM spokesperson said further. “For its part, Moscow urges the Joe Biden administration to soberly assess the situation and not to unleash a spiral of dangerous escalation. We hope that they will hear us in Washington, though there is no reason for optimism so far.”
This month has witnessed multiple bombshell revelations concerning the Pentagon and US intelligence’s deepening role in Ukraine, including the following:
- The White House is mulling the transfer of Patriot missiles to Ukraine.
- The Pentagon is expanding its “on the ground” program of small troop units seeking to monitor and account for US arms transfers.
- Russia is increasingly coming up against US-supplied HIMARS missiles on the battlefield.
- The US has sent an infantry company to Estonia, close to the Russian border for joint drills.
- Calls have grown louder for NATO to “close the skies” over Ukraine, including with the potential transfer of warplanes.
- US intelligence has been assisting Ukrainians with targeting Russian generals.
- The White House has indicated it believes Ukraine’s forces are capable of retaking Crimea, but which would risk a nuclear response.
- Ukraine has increased high-risk attacks inside Russian territory.
Ukraine has also grown bolder in showing off its new American-supplied toys…
All of this and more strongly suggests to two sides are indeed inching toward direct showdown and clash, also as there still appears no appetite for so much as a plan even remotely on the horizon to get Kiev officials to the ceasefire negotiating table with Russia.
As for the ongoing speculation that Belarusian forces could enter the Ukraine conflict in support of Russia, top Russian officials are denying this “option”… for now at least.
end
Robert H to us:.
New weapon to be used
| Sun, Dec 18, 5:14 PM (14 hours ago) |  | ||
| to | |||
The complex of artillery reconnaissance ‘Penicillin’. © Research Institute ‘Vector’
Russian troops have received a fresh batch of ‘Penicillin’ advanced reconnaissance systems, RIA Novosti news agency reported on Saturday, citing a source. The hardware is expected to be deployed in Ukraine.
According to RIA, the Russian Defense Ministry “received another batch of the advanced 1B76 Penicillin acoustic and infrared reconnaissance systems,” adding that the device “effectively detects the positions of the Ukrainian artillery and transmits coordinates for their prompt destruction.”
The time from identification to sending coordinates is 5 seconds .. Ukrainian artillery will be demolished faster than ever .. same goes for rockets and the like .. as I have tried to explain the Ukraine is just another testing ground for equipment to prefect battlefield superiority.. so far Russia has been using dated stockpiles with new systems soon to be unleashed like Penicillin
NATO operators of equipment will die much faster now
end
Ukraine vs Russia
Robert H:
The whole Ukrainian front is collapsing in real time. So called reserves have for weeks been pounded and destroyed along with front line troops. Zelensky is now caught in a trap. The moment he negotiates the truth to Ukrainians will come out and he will be killed. The balderdash of propaganda in the Ukraine is as bad as it is in North Korea. Truth died there long ago.
There are many hands now at risk of enabling and truth being exposed. All the money poured in there is for naught. And consequences for Europe from energy shortages abound.
If there are negotiations, it will be on Russian terms not NATO’s. This fiasco is to far gone and there is no trust left, to talk about. Merkel’s admission shocked many Russians and sealed any notion of a Western orientation as they clearly understand that their existence is threatened by Western interests and there can be no respective relationship worthy of investment. This comes at a time when the whole world economy is entered into a recession. There are no exceptions to major engines of growth from America to India to China as all are in a deflationary state. Demand globally is falling and early reports of skyrocketing inventory levels are being kept quiet for now. The best clue is future falling freight rates which are collapsing.
Things should be different but it is where we are and where we are going with an divided currency world coming into being.
https://warnews247.gr/o-oukranikos-stratos-synthlivetai-sto-ntonbas-proelasi-keravnos-ton-roson-sto-soledar-oi-oukranoi-zitisan-na-egkataleipsoun-tin-poli/
end
Drones pummel Kiev
(zerohedge)
Iran-Made Drones Pummel Ukraine’s Capital, With Over A Dozen Shot Down
WEDNESDAY, DEC 14, 2022 – 10:10 AM
Multiple blasts rocked the Ukrainian capital on Wednesday morning in a predawn raid, sending residents across Kiev into bomb shelters and underground metro stations as air sirens blared. The sirens rang out while the attack occurred for over half an hour as drones hovered under the cover of darkness.
Ukrainian officials said air defense systems were activated against the inbound suicide drones, and claimed to have shot down a total of 13. Mayor Vitali Klitschko identified them as Shahed drones which reportedly targeted the city’s energy infrastructure.
‘Was left guessing’ -journalist Rupar discusses Twitter suspension
Klitschko cited explosions in the central Shevchenkivskyi district, with resulting damage to two administrative buildings, but no casualties have been reported. It was the first significant Russian assault on the capital in days.
Ukrainian air force spokesman Yuriy Ihnat said in the attack aftermath that “The air defenses worked well,” detailing that “Thirteen (drones) were shot down.” President Zelensky in follow-up told his forces: “Well done, I am proud,” in a brief video message hailing the performance of the air defense units.
These attacks are expected to hasten Biden administration decision-making surrounding whether to send Patriot anti-air missile defense systems to the Ukrainians, marking a significant escalation with Russia. However, even if Patriots for Ukraine are approved, it’s likely to take multiple months for them to deploy on the battlefield, given also the Ukrainians would have to be trained on their operation.
Heavy fighting has continued to unfold this week in Bakhmut in Donetsk Oblast.
Meanwhile, the UK is joining US-led efforts to disrupt the Iran to Moscow weapons pipeline amid these ongoing drone assaults on Ukrainian cities.
The UK’s Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) announced Tuesday new sanctions on both Russian and Iranian military commanders. “Intentionally directing attacks against civilians and civilian objects is a serious violation of international humanitarian law. Those responsible must be held to account,” a statement said.
Via Al Jazeera: The latest waves of aerial attacks over the last month have appeared to target primarily the national energy grid as Ukraine heads into a frigid winter…
Foreign Secretary James Cleverly said this was in response to Tehran “striking sordid deals” with Moscow “in a desperate attempt to survive” – detailing further that it is Iranian-manufactured drones continuing to play a “central role” in Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities and energy infrastructure.
end
We are getting closer and closer to a world war
(zerohedge)
Putin Embraced By Lukashenko In Rare State Visit As Fears Mount Belarus Could Join Offensive
MONDAY, DEC 19, 2022 – 08:45 AM
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said the situation in neighboring Ukraine is “escalating” just before receiving a rare in-country visit by his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin. In statements published by the presidential press service, Lukashenko sought to refute rumors and allegations that Moscow is essentially running the country. This as Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu were already in Minsk on Monday just ahead of Putin’s arrival in Minsk.
While still under Western sanctions over Belarus’ role in assisting Russia as a staging ground for the Ukraine invasion, Lukashenko has struck a fiercely defiant tone, saying “I would like to emphasize this feature once again: no one, except us, governs Belarus.” He added: “We must always proceed from the fact that we are a sovereign state and independent.”
On deep ties with Russia as part of the ‘Union State’ Lukashenko said Belarus will “never be enemies” with the country. “This is the state closest to us, the peoples closest to us,” he explained . “I think that as long as we are in power, we will adhere to this trend. If it were otherwise, it would be like in Ukraine.”
The two countries do indeed seem to be signaling escalation in Ukraine, given their militaries launched huge joint drills in Belarus involving tank and infantry maneuvers, and artillery and sniper exercises.
“From the morning until the evening twilight – there is not a single second of silence at the training grounds of Belarus,” the Belarusian defense ministry said in releasing footage.
This has sparked fears in Kiev and among its Western backers that Belarusian forces could directly enter the Ukraine conflict in support of the Russian defense ministry.
Last February, a major Russian military build-up on Belarusian soil ostensibly for “training exercises” turned out to be the precursor to major invasion. While there were conflicting reports at the time that Belarusian ground units had entered Ukraine, this turned out to be premature, as Belarus limited its participation to playing host to Russian forces as a logistics and staging ground of sorts.
All eyes will be on the potential for a huge announcement by Putin and Lukashenko, given the timing of the official trip…
It will mark Putin’s first state visit to Belarus in three years, as The Hill has noted. If Belarus is about to enter the war, it could be the result of several of Moscow’s “red lines” having been cross.
As AFP has reported Monday, Ukraine has once again launched attacks on a border city and region inside Russia proper. “In fighting that has spilled over into Russian regions bordering Ukraine, one person was killed, and others were wounded Sunday in Belgorod following attacks that the local authorities blamed on Kyiv.”
“Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said Ukrainian strikes left around 14,000 people without power in a district of the Belgorod region,” the report indicated.
Another among Moscow’s red lines is the potential for Washington to provide Ukraine with Patriot anti-air defense missiles. The White House is said to be finalizing plans, however, could be stalling the decision especially given the latest maneuvering between Russian and Belarus.
6/GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
Vaccine//Covid issues: Injuries
A must read//setting the record on the power of ivermectin
(Henderson/Brownstone)
Setting The Record Straight On Ivermectin
FRIDAY, DEC 16, 2022 – 11:00 PM
Authored by David Henderson and Charles Hooper via The Brownstone Institute,
The COVID-19 pandemic brought us a panoply of lies and evidence-light declarations that were less intended to inform Americans than to consolidate power and buy time. Among these were Anthony Fauci’s famous shift from arguing against wearing masks, to recommending wearing one, and, finally, to wearing two.
Fauci also tried to convince us that the SARS-CoV-2 virus was not manipulated in a lab even though his inner circle had emailed him about “unusual features” of the virus that looked “potentially engineered.” And, of course, we had “fifteen days to stop the spread,” an evergreen concept that dragged on for two years. Lest readers fault us for forgetting, there was also the “gain of function” controversy, the focused protection battle, school closures, lockdowns, vaccine mandates, and vaccine misrepresentations.
These topics have received much public attention. The one pandemic topic that hasn’t, and is nonetheless important, is the maligned ivermectin. It’s time to set the record straight.
If you’ve followed the news closely over the last two years, you’ve probably heard a few things about ivermectin.
- First, that it’s a veterinary medicine intended for horses and cows.
- Second, that the FDA and other government regulatory agencies recommended against its use for COVID-19.
- Third, that even the inventor and manufacturer of ivermectin, Merck & Co., came out against it.
- Fourth, that one of the largest studies showing that ivermectin worked for COVID-19 was retracted for data fraud.
- And, finally, that the largest and best study of ivermectin, the TOGETHER trial, showed that ivermectin didn’t work.
Let’s consider the evidence.
Ivermectin has a distinguished history, and it may have benefits comparable to those of penicillin. The anti-parasitic’s discovery led to a Nobel Prize and subsequent billions of safe administrations around the world, even among children and pregnant women. “Ivermectin is widely available worldwide, inexpensive, and one of the safest drugs in modern medicine.”
The FDA put out a special warning against using ivermectin for COVID-19. The FDA’s warning, which included language such as, “serious harm,” “hospitalized,” “dangerous,” “very dangerous,” “seizures,” “coma and even death,” and “highly toxic,” might suggest that the FDA was warning against pills laced with poison, not a drug the FDA had already approved as safe. Why did it become dangerous when used for COVID-19? The FDA didn’t say.
Because of the FDA’s rules, if it were to make any statement on ivermectin, it was obliged to attack it. The FDA prohibits the promotion of drugs for unapproved uses. Since fighting SARS-CoV-2 was an unapproved use of ivermectin, the FDA couldn’t have advocated use without obvious hypocrisy. Ivermectin’s discoverer, Merck & Co., had multiple reasons to disparage its own drug.
Merck, too, couldn’t have legally “promoted” ivermectin for COVID-19 without a full FDA approval, something that would have taken years and many millions of dollars. Plus, Merck doesn’t make much money from cheap, generic ivermectin but was hoping to find success with its new, expensive drug, Lagevrio (molnupiravir).
A large study of ivermectin for COVID-19 by Elgazzar et al. was withdrawn over charges of plagiarism and faked data. Many media reports seem fixated on this one dubious study, but it was one of many clinical studies. After the withdrawn studies have been removed from consideration, there are 15 trials that suggest that ivermectin doesn’t work for COVID-19 and 78 that do.
The TOGETHER trial received significant positive press. The New York Times quoted two experts who had seen the results. One stated, “There’s really no sign of any benefit [from ivermectin],” while the other said, “At some point it will become a waste of resources to continue studying an unpromising approach.”
While the Elgazzar paper was quickly dismissed, the TOGETHER trial was acclaimed. It shouldn’t have been. Researchers who have analyzed it have found 31 critical problems (impossible data; extreme conflicts of interest; blinding failure), 22 serious problems (results were delayed six months; conflicting data), and 21 major problems (multiple, conflicting randomization protocols) with it.
While the popular narrative is that the TOGETHER trial showed that ivermectin didn’t work for COVID-19, the actual results belie that conclusion: ivermectin was associated with a 12 percent lower risk of death, a 23 percent lower risk of mechanical ventilation, a 17 percent lower risk of hospitalization, and a 10 percent lower risk of extended ER observation or hospitalization. We have calculated that the probability that ivermectin helped the patients in the TOGETHER trial ranged from 26 percent for the median number of days to clinical recovery to 91 percent for preventing hospitalization. The TOGETHER trial’s results should be reported accurately.
Based on the clinical evidence from the 93 trials that ivermectin reduced mortality by an average of 51 percent, and on the estimated infection fatality rate of COVID-19, about 400 infected Americans aged 60-69 would need to be treated with ivermectin to statistically prevent one death in that group. The total cost of the ivermectin to prevent that one death: $40,000.
(Based on the GoodRx website, a generic prescription for ivermectin is priced at approximately $40. Roughly 2.5 prescriptions would be needed per person to receive the average dose of 150 mg per patient.)
How much is your life worth? We’re betting it’s worth far more than $40,000.
When the next pandemic strikes, by necessity we’ll rely on older drugs because newer ones require years of development. Ivermectin is a repurposed drug that helps, and could have helped so much more. It deserves recognition, not disparagement. What we really need, however, is a way to inoculate ourselves against the lies and misrepresentations of powerful public figures, organizations, and drug companies. Sadly, there are no such vaccines for that contagion.
-END-
The reason for this: lack of immunity after the shots
(zerohedge)
Flu Hospitalizations In England Outstrip COVID Admissions
MONDAY, DEC 19, 2022 – 02:45 AM
More people have been admitted to hospital with influenza than Covid for the first time since the coronavirus pandemic began, according to the latest figures by the UK Health Security Agency.
As Statista’s Anna Fleck details below, the rate of flu hospitalizations hit 6.8 per 100,000 people in the week leading up to December 11, while admissions for Covid patients hit 6.6 per 100,000.
You will find more infographics at Statista
Flu hospitalizations rose 40 percent in that period, up from 3.9 per 100,000 people as of the week ending December 4.
If these admissions continue to rise, they could be on track to surpass the figures recorded in the winter of 2017/18, which killed some 30,000 people, the Telegraph reports.
The over-85s and under-fives are seeing the highest rates of flu hospitalizations, with 23.1 per 100,000 people and 20.7 per 100,000 people, respectively.
While the admissions levels for both infectious diseases are rising as we head into winter, the rate of flu hospitalizations is climbing more steeply.
This surge hits as an already-overburdened NHS faces long waiting lists and a Strep A outbreak. In light of this, experts are calling for people to get a flu shot as soon as possible.
Dr Conall Watson, Consultant Epidemiologist at the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA), explains: “The flu vaccine offers the best protection against severe illness and it’s not too late for everyone eligible to get it. Uptake is particularly low in those aged 2 and 3 so if your child is eligible please take up the offer.”
END
FDA finally has come out and claims that the COVID 19 vaccine is linked to blood clotting. We have highlighted this to you for over two years
(FDA//Stieber)
Pfizer’s COVID-19 Vaccine Linked to Blood Clotting: FDA
Dec 17 2022
A health care worker prepares Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine doses in Portland, Ore., in a file photograph. (Nathan Howard/Getty Images)
0:007:261
Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine has been linked to blood clotting in older individuals, according to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA).
FDA researchers, crunching data from a database of elderly persons in the United States, found that pulmonary embolism—blood clotting in the lungs—met the initial threshold for a statistical signal and continued meeting the criteria after a more in-depth evaluation.
Three other outcomes of interest—a lack of oxygen to the heart, a blood platelet disorder called immune thrombocytopenia, and another type of clotting called intravascular coagulation—initially raised red flags, researchers said. More in-depth evaluations, such as comparisons with populations who received influenza vaccines, showed those three as no longer meeting the statistical threshold for a signal.
Researchers looked at data covering 17.4 million elderly Americans who received a total of 34.6 million vaccine doses between Dec. 10, 2020, and Jan. 16, 2022.
The study was published by the journal Vaccine on Dec. 1.
The FDA said it was not taking any action on the results because they do not prove the vaccines cause any of the four outcomes, and because the findings “are still under investigation and require more robust study.”
Dr. Peter McCullough, chief medical adviser for the Truth for Health Foundation, told The Epoch Times via email that the new paper “corroborates the concerns of doctors that the large uptick in blood clots, progression of atherosclerotic heart disease, and blood disorders is independently associated with COVID-19 vaccination.”
Pfizer did not respond to a request for comment.A pedestrian walks by Pfizer’s New York City headquarters in a file photograph. (Jeenah Moon/Getty Images)
How the Research Was Done
FDA researchers, with assistance from researchers with the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS), analyzed data from the CMS database. They included Medicare Fee-for-Service beneficiaries aged 65 or older who received a vaccine within the timeframe, were enrolled when they were vaccinated, and were enrolled for a “clean window” of time prior to vaccination. The window was 183 days or 365 days, depending on the outcome.
About 25 million people receive the Medicare Fee-for-Service, but only about 17 million were vaccinated during the period of time studied.
Researchers used probability testing to detect an increased risk of one or more of 14 outcomes following vaccination. The goal was to see whether vaccination may increase the risk of adverse outcomes, such as pulmonary embolism, or blood clotting in the lungs. If an outcome met a certain statistical threshold, that meant it could increase the risk.
The initial results of the safety monitoring detected an increased risk of four events, the FDA announced on July 12, 2021. They were the same four outlined in the new paper, which is the first update the agency has given on the matter since its announcement.
As of Jan. 15, 2022, 9,065 cases of a lack of oxygen to the heart—known as acute myocardial infarction—were detected, researchers revealed in the new study. As of the same date, 6,346 cases of pulmonary embolism, 1,064 cases of immune thrombocytopenia, and 263 cases of the coagulation were detected.One of the tables from the new paper.
The primary analysis showed a safety signal for all four outcomes. Researchers tried adjusting the numbers by using different variables. For instance, at one point they adjusted for the variation of background rates, or the rates of each outcome in the general population prior to the pandemic. After certain adjustments—not all—the myocardial infarction, immune thrombocytopenia, and intravascular coagulation ceased being statistically significant.
Pulmonary embolism, though, continued to be statistically significant, the researchers said. Pulmonary embolism is a serious condition that can lead to death.
Limitations of the study included possible false signals and possible missed signals due to factors such as parameters being specified wrongly.
The conditions that didn’t trigger a signal included stroke, heart inflammation, and appendicitis.
The signals were detected only after Pfizer vaccination. Analyses for signals after receipt of the Moderna and Johnson & Johnson vaccines did not show any concerns.
Moderna and Johnson & Johnson did not respond to requests for comment.
Side Effects
All three vaccines have been linked to a number of side effects. Heart inflammation is causally linked to the Moderna and Pfizer shots, experts around the world have confirmed, while Johnson & Johnson’s has been associated with blood clots.
Other conditions, such as pulmonary embolism, have been reported to authorities and described in studies, though some papers have found no increase in risk following vaccination.
Approximately 4,214 reports of post-vaccination pulmonary embolism, including 1,886 reports following receipt of Pfizer’s vaccine, have been reported to the U.S. Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System as of Dec. 9.
As of the same date, 1,434 reports of post-vaccination myocardial infarction, including 736 following receipt of Pfizer’s vaccine; 469 reports of post-vaccination immune thrombocytopenia, including 234 following receipt of Pfizer’s vaccine; and 78 reports of post-vaccination intravascular coagulation, including 42 after receipt of Pfizer’s vaccine, have been reported.
Reports to the system can be made by anybody, but most are lodged by health care workers, studies show. The number of reports are an undercount, according to studies.
The new study states that the FDA “strongly believes the potential benefits of COVID-19 vaccination outweigh the potential risks of COVID-19 infection.” No evidence was cited in support of the belief.
The FDA is set to meet with its vaccine advisory panel in January 2023 about the future of COVID-19 vaccines, as the vaccines have been performing much worse against Omicron and its subvariants.
McCullough told The Epoch Times: “A shortcoming of the CMS surveillance system is that it did not capture prior and subsequent SARS-CoV-2 infection which accentuate the cumulative risk of COVID-19 vaccination. Given the large number of individuals who have been vaccinated, the population attributable fraction of medical problems ascribed to the vaccines is enormous. I have concerns over the future burden to the healthcare system as a consequence of mass indiscriminate COVID-19 vaccination.”
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