HomeJAN 6/POOR USA JOBS REPORTS SENDS PRECIOUS METALS SKYROCKETING: GOLD PRICE...
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JAN 6/POOR USA JOBS REPORTS SENDS PRECIOUS METALS SKYROCKETING: GOLD PRICE ROSE $28.85 TO $1864.40//SILVER ROSE 54 CENTS TO $23.84//PLATINUM IS UP ANOTHER $29.80 TO $1094.00//PALLADIUM IS UP $57.70 TO $1810.70//COVID UPDATES: UPDATES ON BUFFALO BILLS PLAYER CARDIAC ARREST//VACCINE INJURIES UPDATES//VACCINE MANDATE/DR PAUL ALEXANDER UPDATES//UKRAINE VS RUSSIA UPDATES//USA PAYROLLS BEAT EXPECTATIONS BUT HOURLY RATE LOWER THAN EXPECTED: MOST OF THE JOB GAINS WERE PART TIME ADDITIONS NOT FULL TIME//THE ALL IMPORTANT SERVICE ISM REPORT SHOWS THE USA IN CONTINUAL CONTRACTION: THIS IS THE KEY REPORT FOR THE MONTH AS SERVICE IS 70% OF USA GDP//BED BATH AND BEYOND READY TO FILE FOR BANKRUPTCY PROTECTION//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT///
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118 C MACQUARIE FUT 9 435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 2 661 C JP MORGAN 4 732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 10 737 C ADVANTAGE 3 6 800 C MAREX SPEC 3 3
TOTAL: 20 20 MONTH TO DATE: 724
JPM received 0/20 contracts (stopped)
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GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR JAN/2023. CONTRACT: 20 NOTICES FOR 2000 OZ or 0.0622 TONNES
total notices so far: 724 contracts for 72400 oz (2.251 tonnes)
SILVER NOTICES: 2 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 10,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month 812 for 4,060,000 oz
END
GLD
WITH GOLD UP $28.85
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: /////NO CHANGES IN GLD INVENTORY:
INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.77 TONNES
Silver//SLV
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP 54 CENTS
AT THE SLV// :/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF 4.2 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV
CLOSING INVENTORY: 509.65 MILLION OZ (THIS IS ALSO A CRIME SCENE@!!!!
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 2073 CONTRACTS TO 131,136 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR $0.50 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON THURSDAY. OUR SHORTERS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.50 AND WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING SOME SPEC LONGS, AS WE HAD A HUGE LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1473 CONTRACTS. AS WELL WE HAD A ZERO OZ OF AN EXCHANGE FOR RISK TRANSFER ( 0 CONTRACTS). WE HAD SOME SPEC SHORT COVERINGS . WE ALSO HAD STRONG NEW SHORT ADDITIONS WITH THE HUGE FALL IN PRICE OF SILVER. // OUR BANKERS CONTINUE TO BE PURCHASERS OF NET COMEX LONGS. BUT THEY ALSO SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT CONTRACTS>>> MINOR INCREASE OF NEWBIE SPEC LONGS
WE MUST HAVE HAD: A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 4,055. MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE. JUMP OF 10,000 OZ//NEW STANDING 4.160 MILLION OZ // V) HUGE SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/ STRONG EFP ISSUANCE/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL -37
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS JAN. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF JAN:
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 4 days, total 2833 contracts: OR 14.17 MILLION OZ PER DAY. (708 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 14.17 MILLION OZ
.
LAST 17 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH: 207.430 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
JAN 2023/// 14.17 MILLION OZ
RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 2036 WITH OUR $0.26 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// THURSDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 600 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR MAR AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JAN OF 4.055 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 10,000 / //NEW STANDING INCREASES TO 4.160 MILLION OZ + EFR 2.5 MILLION = 6.660 MILLION OZ. .. WE HAVE A HUGE SIZED LOSS OF 1473 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 7.365 MILLION OZ.. THE SILVER SHORTS ARE NOW TRAPPED AS THEY ARE HAVING CONSIDERABLE DIFFICULTY IN COVERING THOSE SHORTS.
WE HAD 2 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 10,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 3923 CONTRACTS TO 453,485 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED 1063 CONTRACTS.
.
THE FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI (3923 CONTRACTS) CAME WITH OUR $17.05 LOSS IN PRICE. WE ALSO HAD A SMALL INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR JAN. AT 2.1710 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 10 CONTRACTS OR 1000 OZ //(QUEUE JUMPING = EXERCISING LONDON BASED EFP’S ) (EFP is the transfer of contracts immediately to London for potential gold deliveries originating from London). NEW STANDING 2.230 TONNES
YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR HUGE $17.07 LOSS IN PRICEWITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S TRADING
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 2291 OI CONTRACTS (7.125 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 6214 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 454,548
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2291 CONTRACTS WITH 3923 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 6214 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2291 CONTRACTS OR 7.125 TONNES.
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (6214 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (3923) TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 2291 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS // CONTINUED GOOD BANKER ADDITIONS BUT THEY ALSO SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY PAPER SHORT. WE HAD CONSIDERABLE SHORT SPEC ADDITIONS/// // FEW NEWBIE SPEC ADDITIONS ,2.) SMALL INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR JAN. AT 2.1710 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 300 OZ /NEW STANDING 2.3919 TONNES///3) SMALL LONG LIQUIDATION //.,4) FAIR SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN 5) STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER/
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY
JAN
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JAN :
10,448 CONTRACTS OR 1,044,800 OZ OR 32.497 TONNES 4 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 12612 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 4 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES:32.497 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2021, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 32.497/3550 x 100% TONNES 0.915% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH: 409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247,44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
JAN 2023: 32.497 TONNES INITIAL
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF FEB. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF BOTH GOLD (
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR BOTH GOLD:
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (NOV), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 2073 CONTRACTS OI TO 131,173 AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO.
EFP ISSUANCE 600 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
MAR 600 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 600 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 2073 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 600 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN A HUGE LOSS OF 1473 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 7.365 MILLION OZ//
OCCURRED DESPITE OUR 50 CENT LOSS IN PRICE ….. OUR SPEC SHORTS HAVE NOWHERE TO HIDE!
4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
end
5. Other gold/silver commentaries
6. Commodity commentaries//CORN
7/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
3. ASIAN AFFAIRS
i)THURSDAY MORNING//WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 2.42 PTS OR0.08% //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 60.53 PTS OR 0.29% /The Nikkei closed UP 153.05 PTS OR 0.29% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.68% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP TO 6.8615//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP TO 6.8695// /Oil DOWN TO 73.35 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 78.37 / Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY GREEN ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER
a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 C CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 3923 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 453,485 WITH OUR STRONG LOSS IN PRICE OF $17.05
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE NON-ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JAN… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 6214 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: ;: , . 0 FEB: 6214 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 6214 CONTRACTS
WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION, EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A FAIR SIZED TOTAL OF 2291 CONTRACTS IN THAT 6214 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A FAIR SIZED COMEX OI LOSS OF 3923 CONTRACTS..AND THIS FAIR SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $17.05. WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE SPEC SHORTS ADDITIONS TO THEIR SHORTFALL WITH LITTLE SPEC SHORT LIQUIDATIONS.. BANKERS CONTINUE AS NET BUYERS OF COMEX GOLD CONTRACTS AS THEY HAVE BEEN NET LONG FOR THE PAST FEW MONTHS. WE ALSO HAD STRONG NEWBIE SPECS ADDITIONS
// WE HAVE A SMALL AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING Jan (2.3919)
TONNES),
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL (TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR 591.535 TONNES)
Dec. 64.541 tonnes
JAN/2023: 2.3919 tonnes
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL $17.05) //// BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A FAIR GAIN OF 2291 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES // WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 7.125 PAPER TONNES OF TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JAN. (2.1710 TONNES) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 1000 oz OR .0311 TONNES…THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR FALL IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $17.05.
WE HAD – 1063 CONTRACTS COMEX TRADES REMOVED FROM OPEN INTEREST AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 2291 CONTRACTS OR 229,100 OZ OR 7.125 TONNES
Estimated gold comex today 212,914// fair//
final gold volumes/yesterday 210,480/ fair
INITIAL STANDINGS FOR JAN 2023 COMEX GOLD //JAN 6//
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
724 notices 72400 2.251 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
xxx oz
i)Dealer deposits: 0
total dealer deposit: nil oz
No dealer withdrawals
Customer deposits: 0
total deposits: nil oz
customer withdrawals: 1
i) Out of JPMorgan: 181,620.981 oz (5649 kilobars)
Total withdrawals: 181,620.981 oz
total in tonnes: 5.649 tonnes
Adjustments:0
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JANUARY.
For the front month of JANUARY we have an oi of 65 contracts having GAINED 7 contracts
We had 10 notices served on Thursday, so we gained 10 contracts or an additional 1000 oz will stand for delivery in this
very non active delivery month of January. (queue jump)
February lost 9722 contacts to 358,810
March gained 70 contracts to stand at 349.
April gained 3817 contracts up to 59,837.
We had 20 notice(s) filed today for 2000 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 4 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 20 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 1 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JAN. /2022. contract month,
we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (724 x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of (JAN. 65 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 20 x 100 oz per contract equals 76,900 OZ OR 2.3919 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this non active month of January.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JAN contract month:
No of notices filed so far (724 x 100 oz+ (65 OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (20} x 100 oz} which equals 76,900 oz standing OR 2.3919 TONNES in this NON active delivery month of JAN..
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 2.3919 TONNES (A POOR STANDING//COMEX RUNNING OUT OF PHYSICAL TO SERVE UPON OUR LONGS.
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED: 22,990.025.490 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD:11,171,497.6431 OZ (347,46 tonnes)..dropping fast
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 11,818,527.847 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 9,135,866 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 284.163 tonnes//rapidly declining
END
SILVER/COMEX
JAN 6/2023//INITIAL JAN. SILVER CONTRACT
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
249,954.802 oz
CNT JPMorgan HSBC Loomis
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
586,073.075 oz JPMorgan
No of oz served today (contracts)
2 CONTRACT(S) (10,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
20 contracts (100,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
812 contracts (4,060,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
i) 0 dealer deposit
total dealer deposits: nil oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: oz
We have 1 deposits into the customer account
i)JPMorgan 586,073.075 oz
Total deposits: 586,073.075 oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 152.772 million oz/300.618 million =50.83% of comex .//dropping fast
Comex withdrawals: 4
i) Out of CNT 41,120.173 oz
ii) Out of jPMorgan: 4946.480 oz
iii) out of HSBC 3-38/180 oz
iv) out of Loomis; 200,849.970 oz
Total withdrawals; 249,954.802 oz
adjustments: 1 dealer to customer
JPmorgan: 15,322.750
the silver comex is in stress!
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 34.386 MILLION OZ (declining rapidly).TOTAL REG + ELIG. 300.618 MILLION OZ
CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR DEC
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF JAN/2023 OI: 22 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 68 CONTRACT(S.). WE HAD 70 NOTICES
FILED ON WEDNESDAY SO WE GAINED 2 CONTRACTS OR 10,000 OZ WERE QUEUE JUMPED BY THE BANKERS TO OBTAIN SOME SILVER OVER HERE.
FEB> GAINED 29 CONTRACTS TO 227 CONTRACTS
March LOST 2941 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 114,589 contracts
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 70 for 350,000 oz
Comex volumes// est. volume today 59,568//good
Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 64,635 contracts ( very good)
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JANUARY. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 812 x 5,000 oz = 4,060,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JAN(22) and the number of notices served upon today 2 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the JAN./2023 contract month: 812 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of JAN (22 – number of notices served upon today (2) x 500 oz of silver standing for the JAN. contract month equates 4.160 million oz + 2.5 MILLION OZ OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK
the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
JAN 6/WITH GOLD UP $28.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.77 TONNES
JAN 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.05 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES FORM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.77 TONNES
JANUARY 4/WITH GOLD UP $32.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.64 TONNES
JAN 3/WITH GOLD UP $20.00 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:STRANGE: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES FORM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.64 TONNES
DEC 30/WITH GOLD UP $.80 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.51 TONNES
DEC 29//WITH GOLD UP $8.35 TODAY:; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.51 TONNES
DEC 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.80 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 5.50 TONNES INTO THE GLD..//INVENTORY REST S AT 918.51 TONNES
DEC 27/WITH GOLD UP $18.15 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.01 TONNES
DEC 23/WITH GOLD UP $19,15 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.88 TONNES/
DEC 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $29.35 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.88 TONNES
DEC 21/WITH GOLD FLAT TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.88 TONNES
DEC 20/WITH GOLD UP $27.05: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.73 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.14 TONNES
DEC 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.10: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD> A BIG WITHDRAWAL OF 3.47 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 910.41 TONNES
DEC 16/WITH GOLD UP $12.45: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.32 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.88 TONNES
DEC 15//WITH GOLD DOWN $31.00: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 911.56 TONNES
DEC 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.20: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.32 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.72 TONNES
DEC 13/WITH GOLD UP $32.75: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.32 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 910.41
DEC 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.60: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.09 TONNES
DEC 9/WITH GOLD UP $8.90//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.09 TONNES
Dec 8/WITH GOLD UP $4.05, OVER THE PAST 3 WEEKS WE LOST 2.04 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.09 TONNES
NOV 14/WITH GOLD UP $7.30: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 910.12 TONNES
NOV 11/WITH GOLD UP $15.25//BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.19 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 911.57 TONNES
NOV 10/WITH GOLD UP $40.75: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.38 TONNES
NOV 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.89 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.38 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 916.77 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
JAN 6/WITH SILVER UP 54 CENTS TODAY;BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 4.20 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.65 MILLION OZ//
JAN 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 50 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.10 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 505.45 MILLION OZ//
JAN 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 26 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.3 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 506.55 MILLION OZ/
JAN 3/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: STRANGE: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.2 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 507.85 MILLION OZ/
DEC 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.050 MILLION OZ
DEC 29/ WITH SILVER UP $0.63 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.050 MILLION OZ
DEC 28//WITH SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.715 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///..INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.050 MILLION OZ
DEC 27/WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/A WITHDRAWAL OF 550,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 507.350 MILLION OZ//
DEC 23/WITH SILVER UP 29 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT507.900 MILLION O//
DEC 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 53 CENTS TODAY;NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 507.90 MILLION OZ//
DEC 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.0 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 507.90 MILLION OZ//
DEC 20/WITH SILVER UP 105 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:: A DEPOSIT OF 700,000 OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.90 MILLION OZ//
DEC 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.05 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.20 MILLION OZ//
DEC 16/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.85 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 508.15 MILLION OZ//
DEC 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 78 CENTS: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF EXACTLY 2.00 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 510.000 MILLION OZ
DEC 14/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.7 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 512.000 MILLION OZ//
DEC 13/WITH SILVER UP 59 CENTS: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 600,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 513.900 MILLION OZ//
DEC 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 33 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.500 MILLION OZ//
DEC 9/WITH SILVER RISING 77 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.2 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.500 MILLION OZ.
DEC 8/WITH SILVER RISING 34 CENTS TODAY: OVER THE PAST 3 WEEKS, WE HAVE GAINED A STRONG: 44.777 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 516.700 MILION OZ.
NOV 14/WITH SILVER UP 41 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.923 MILLION OZ//
NOV 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 553,000 OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.923 MILLION OZ//
NOV 10/WITH SILVER UP 39 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 368,000 OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.476 MILLION OZ//
NOV 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/; A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.821 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.108 MILLION OZ//
CLOSING INVENTORY 509.65 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
1:Peter Schiff
end
2 Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz//Rickards:
The war in Ukraine remains the most important story in the world today.
Don’t believe the incessant U.S. government and media propaganda about Ukraine. Ukraine is not winning the war; they are losing badly.
But wait, hasn’t the news been talking up Ukrainian gains in recent months, while Russia is retreating and being badly beaten? That’s the mainstream, pro-Ukrainian narrative. Here’s the reality:
Most of the Ukrainian gains were against lightly defended positions that the Russians quickly abandoned because they were not worth fighting to defend.
Those Russian troops (really Donbas militias) were ordered to retreat to fortified Russian lines while Ukrainian forces rushing to fill the void were slaughtered by Russian artillery bombardments.
Most people think of war in terms of territory. If you lose territory, it must mean you’re losing the war. But it’s not always that simple.
The Russian Strategy
The Russians will willingly cede territory in order to fight again at a later time under more favorable circumstances. They’ll simply retake it when the terms favor them. They’re not primarily concerned about the territory per se. The primary Russian objective is to grind down and destroy the Ukrainian armed forces.
And if the Ukrainians want to keep hurling themselves against Russian positions in order to recapture land and score a propaganda coup, that’s fine with the Russians. They’ll just grind the attacking forces down with heavy artillery fire (artillery kills far more people in war than bullets or bombs).
And despite Ukrainian government claims, the best intelligence says Russia is presently enjoying an 8–10:1 casualty rate. In other words, Russia is inflicting eight–10 casualties on Ukraine for every casualty it’s suffering.
That kind of ratio isn’t sustainable for Ukraine.
Russia Prepares to Lower the Boom on Ukraine
Meanwhile, Russia has reinforced its positions with 300,000 or more fresh troops (about 30 divisions) who are rested and resupplied. That’s in addition to the number of troops already in Ukraine.
Evidence indicates they’re backed by at least 1,500 tanks, 5,000 armored fighting vehicles, 1,000 rocket artillery systems, hundreds of fixed-wing aircraft and helicopters plus thousands of tactical ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and drones.
At the same time, all indications are that Russia is changing its strategy.
The initial Russian invasion was ill-conceived and took place in a piecemeal fashion. Contrary to mainstream opinion, Putin never intended to conquer Kyiv and occupy Ukraine. The invasion force was far too small to accomplish those objectives.
Also contrary to mainstream opinion, Putin didn’t target Ukraine’s civilian population. He wanted to avoid civilian casualties to the greatest possible extent. Of course some civilian targets were hit, but that’s going to happen in war.
Putin instead believed that the “special military operation” would tell Kyiv and Washington that Russia was serious about enforcing its red lines in Ukraine, that it was willing to use force.
But he thought his show of force would bring them to the negotiating table.
He badly miscalculated.
Rather than bring Kyiv and Washington to the negotiating table, they resolved to aggressively defend Ukraine.
Russia’s ill-prepared forces were pushed back and routed in many instances.
“Russia Means Business This Time”
But now Russia is taking the gloves off. It’s already launched heavy, sustained attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure, including the power grid and energy nodes. Its army is also regrouping and preparing for massive counteroffensives.
It won’t make the same mistakes it made during last February’s ill-planned attacks. Russia means business this time.
It’s not interested in bringing Ukraine to the negotiating table anymore. It’s focused instead on destroying Ukraine’s military forces and imposing a settlement on Kyiv.
A major winter offensive will begin soon, likely when the ground in southern Ukraine is fully frozen (muddy ground will bog down Russian forces). A successful counteroffensive will consolidate Russian control of Donbas (the heartland of Ukrainian industry and natural resources), give Russia control of Zaporizhzhya (the largest nuclear power plant in Europe) and possibly include the conquest of Odessa, the most important Ukrainian Black Sea port.
The cost on the rest of Ukraine from Kyiv to Lviv will be horrendous, including the near-complete degradation of its power-generating capacity, transportation lines and food supplies. U.S. and U.K. weapons supplies won’t mean much because they are too little, too late and the Ukrainians are scarcely trained to use them.
But these prospects make no impact at all on the anti-Russian warhawks, both Democrat and Republican, who are determined to prolong the war at all costs — even if it means fighting Russia to the last Ukrainian.
A Great Deal for the Military-Industrial Complex
It seems that every week or so the U.S. announces a new multibillion-dollar package of aid for Ukraine. These aid packages fall into two categories: Some are simple financial transfers to keep the oligarchs in Ukraine supplied with funds to keep their government going.
Others consist of weapons including drones, anti-missile batteries like the Patriot, long-range artillery and most recently an announcement that the U.S. may supply Ukraine with Bradley Fighting Vehicles, or BFVs.
The total of such Ukraine aid, including the $1.7 trillion budget boondoggle passed by the U.S. Congress two weeks ago, is now approaching $100 billion.
When it comes to weapons, there’s a lot less than meets the eye in terms of helping Ukraine. It appears that Ukraine is getting billions of dollars in equipment, but in fact, Ukraine is getting castoffs from U.S. inventories.
What’s really going on is the U.S. is dumping old or obsolete systems on Ukraine (the original BFV was built in 1981, over forty40 years ago) and then using the appropriations to order new weapons for itself.
Meanwhile, the U.S. will likely send Ukraine an older version of the Patriot air defense system — and only one battery at that, consisting of eight missile launchers. It’s not the game-changer many seem to think it is. The Russians will simply overwhelm the system with numbers, and then take it out. It probably won’t last long whenever it’s deployed, which could be several months from now.
The real winners of these weapons transfers will be U.S. defense contractors like Raytheon, Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman, who are getting the money to build new advanced systems for the U.S.
The real losers will be the Ukrainian people, who will continue to die needlessly in the absence of a negotiated settlement that recognizes the reality on the ground.
How Much Western Military Aid Actually Makes It Into the Field?
To make this racket even more absurd, much of the equipment that does make it to Ukraine is quickly blown up by Russia.
Russia has very good intelligence on the whereabouts of these weapons systems once they reach Ukraine. Using global satellite imaging, laser guidance and a blend of drones and cruise missiles, Putin has had success preventing these weapons from reaching the battlefield or destroying them if they do.
But the U.S. has already spent so much money on Ukraine and committed itself so strongly to a complete Russian defeat, a Russian victory would represent another strategic defeat for the U.S., still smarting from the debacle in Afghanistan.
What remains of U.S. credibility is on the line.
Brinksmanship
What happens if Russia brings Ukraine to the verge of defeat? Will Biden and his strongly anti-Russian administration simply throw up their hands and concede victory to Russia? Based on their maximalist rhetoric and commitment to Ukrainian victory, that appears unlikely.
Biden has shown no signs of relenting and recently said he will supply Ukraine with weapons as long as it takes. On the other hand, Putin will also not back down and seems determined to secure the entire seacoast of Ukraine, including the critical port of Odessa.
The great danger could arise if the U.S. foolishly continues escalation to the bitter end in order to stave off a Ukrainian defeat. I’m not predicting it’ll happen, but things could escalate to the point where tactical nuclear weapons are employed out of desperation. From that point, it’s a short step toward the broader use of strategic nuclear weapons.
Again, I’m not specifically predicting that will happen. But it is a realistic possibility based on the logic of escalation, and we seem to be sleepwalking into a nuclear confrontation unless we wake up.
Will we?
END
A good one: worth repeating!!
Mathew Piepenburg…
2023: The ABCs Of CBDC, The Great Reset(s), & More Centralized Control
If you want to understand modern CBDC, it may be worth considering the context of history, the philosophy of man, the math of debt and the geology of gold.
Broke Countries Do Bad Things
When broken, debt-soaked “developed economies” suffering from years of fantasy money printing to “solve” fatally rising debt levels collide with history-blind and economically-ignorant policy makers, the end result is always the same: Liberty sinks, currencies die and control rises.
This is not sensationalism, but the toxic evolution of economic, political and psychological patterns seen throughout time.
Sadly, our “times” (as well as the global abundance/convergence of weak leadership) are no exception.
Or stated more simply, inept financial and political leadership leads to even more dangerous financial opportunists and tyrannical policies masquerading as efficient solutions.
Nowhere is such will-to-power opportunism and fantasy (i.e., centralized) solutions more exemplified than in the so-called “Great Reset” authored by the head of the World Economic Forum, Klaus Schwab.
Like all opportunists and historical as well as current “types,” Schwab (like the IMF, the BIS, the Fed, the White House, the European or British Parliament etc.) is exploiting a crisis to enhance control while appearing humanitarian and visionary.
We’ve seen this demagogue movie before in Italy, France, Germany, Spain, Yugoslavia, Cuba, China, Russia etc.
In each example (from the 1780’s to the 1960’s to now), leaders who promised miracle solutions to financial disaster brought only centralization and disorder while erecting statues (or book deals and Parisian shopping sprees) to themselves.
Never Let a Good Crisis Go to Waste
And what better crisis to exploit than the bat-made narrative of the Covid pandemic with its case fatality rate of less than 2%?
Post-Covid, it is now patently obvious to anyone who has taken the time to look unemotionally at the science, math and data (including courageous British journalists like Matt Ridely, well-spoken celebrities like Russell Brand, dark horses like Bret Weinstein or the non-political [and hence more honest] scientists convening at Great Barrington) that COVID most likely came from a lab and that the policy reaction of a global shut down and forced vaccine was a moral, scientific, economic and political disaster for the record books.
Despite the fact that history has seen (and stoically survived) far greater per-capita death tolls in the form of cholera, the bubonic plague, small pox, or influenza, our policy makers, with the embarrassingly complicit support of a Pravda-like and politically-influenced main stream media, would have us believe they care so much about you and I. So, they locked us down, went trillions more into debt (and a hidden, second market bailout) for our sake.
In fact, the IMF in 2020 compared the war on Covid to the Second World War and its 85 million deaths.
That’s an insult to history.
As an equally courageous Christine Anderson declared from the European Parliament during the height of the Covid hysteria (mandates, restrictions, masks etc.): Covid politics were not about concern for the masses.
Despite such sober honesty and macabre math, Klaus Schwab, along with just about every other global leader, was taking a more dramatic and opportunistic approach, declaring that, “the Corona Virus pandemic has no parallel in history. It is our defining moment.”
Huh?
What he really meant in this classic Freudian slip was that Covid was his defining moment. Namely, the perfect crisis to exploit global fear and promote his new “Great Reset” vision as the leader of a better tomorrow, akin to Lenin’s losing-war promise/bribe of simple “bread and peace” in 1917…
And what is Schwab’s (and others like him) vision of a better tomorrow?
What is the “Great Reset”?
Like most politically and financially bad ideas (from Quantitative Easing to the Patriot Act), the Great Reset envisioned by Schwab has a seductive title and facade—namely “Stakeholder Capitalism.”
Unlike current shareholder capitalism, his concept of stakeholder capitalism aims to infuse global corporate board seats with a higher percentage of special interest representation (i.e., labor, environmental, social justice etc.).
In the USA, Elizabeth Warren has a similar, and indeed superficially noble, and more inclusive agenda.
China, whose leader-for-life (Xi Jinping) is a Schwab favorite and Davos keynote speaker, takes this autocratic vision one step further by simply inserting governmental agents into every Chinese boardroom.
For many, including myself, one can understand a desire to improve corrupt financial/banking systems and fractured social structures. One can understand more inclusion and less corporate greed.
Toward that end, I don’t think Schwab is a transhumanist creature of a dark global conspiracy to depopulate the world and rule as supreme leader of a one-world government.
I actually feel he believes he can help himself (and others) at the same time.
And as for the current version of capitalism in which central banks like the Fed (and derivative-sick commercial bankslike Credit Suisse) have become THE driving/liquidity force of supply and demand, I’ve written and spoken countless times on my view that true capitalism died long ago.
But what we are being told by folks like Schwab is hardly better; in fact, it’s much worse.
Schwab’s Flawed Premise: Institutional Faith
Like China’s Xi Jinping, Schwab’s Great Reset is based upon the notion that systemic risks like inflation, pandemics and geopolitical as well as economic distortion can be better managed by a global “coordination” of wise centralized and institutional players.
Like Xi, Schwab believes “giant ships survive storms, whereas small boats sink.”
But such faith (and premise) that massive and globally coordinated institutional wisdom is somehow safer and superior to individual freedom ignores the titanic example, of well…the Titanic.
In short: Big ships sink too—and usually with higher casualty rates.
Schwab’s vision of a “coordinated economy” and the redefining of the “social contract” to tackle real or exaggerated (pick your view) crises like climate change or future pandemics is based upon an inherently flawed premise that enlightened yet increasingly CENTRALIZED institutions or even governments (like China?) can save us.
But what folks like Schwab (or for that matter Biden, Trudeau, Macron, Scholz, Johnson and just about every other embarrassing but modern national leader) failed to confess is that not once in the entire history of homo sapiens has a centralized system (fascist, Bolshevik, communist or socialist) ever brought an ounce of sustainable good to the world.
(Though such centralization certainly brought a lot of temporary luxury, wealth and power to folks like Castro, Lenin, Mussolini and Robespierre…)
The simple, tragic yet historically and (psychologically) confirmed reality is this: “Efficient” safety via central planning at the expense of individual freedoms NEVER works.
America’s Brief & Shining Moment
That is why the founding fathers of the greatest constitutional and democratic (yet now failed) experiment in history declared (via Ben Franklin) that “those willing to give up their freedoms for greater security deserve neither.”
For a brief and shining moment in 18th century Philadelphia, a document and vision of individual freedoms and constitutional protections declared the priority of the individual over the “security” of centralized tyranny as the cornerstone of its national vision.
America’s Flawed Premise: Faith in Human Nature?
Perhaps, however, these founding fathers under-estimated the human-all-too-human (nod to Nietzsche) susceptibility to self-interest and a desire for more personal and political control—i.e., the common extroverted psychopathy of most politicians—even those posing under a democratic flag.
That is why the same Ben Franklin casually (though sadly) remarked to a passer-by on the very day of America’s Declaration of Independence that “eventually all democracies die, and usually by suicide.”
This suicide has been gradual but undeniable, marked by such slow-drip turning points toward increasing centralization as exemplified by: 1) the 1913 birth of the Federal (Central) Reserve (against which Thomas Jefferson warned in 1806); 2) the now increasingly obvious and centralized (coup d’état) murder of a sitting president in 1963; 3) the imperialist drift toward false flag wars of expansion (from “remember the Maine” of 1898, the Gulf of Tonkin Resolution in 1964 or the 2003 WMD fiction in Iraq) to 4) the exploitation of cataclysmic crises to slowly eradicate personal liberties in the name of “national security” under such euphemistically-titled legislation like the post-9/11 “Patriot Act.”
In short, given that all systems and experiments, be they liberty-based or centralized, are envisioned and then managed by human systems, the age-old (Hobbes/Locke) debate as to whether humans are intrinsically in a state of war or a state of peace (i.e., good or bad) remains the core dilemma and question.
The Modern Flawed Premise: Faith in Technology
This timeless dilemma, of course, has taken an entirely new course in a smart-phone era of increasing faith in a technological, virtual and even robotic solutions to man’s quest for a better, freer tomorrow.
There are many who believe that we can replace corrupt institutions (from Davos to Brussels, DC to Beijing) with wiser technologies, which can and sometimes do allow a freer and more decentralized flow of information (as evidenced by non-main-stream platforms like this one) and even money (as evidenced by the thirst for decentralized, encrypted currencies like BTC).
Rapidly evolving technologies, for example, allow more people to leave crime-infested (and police defunded) cities for more work-at-home personal freedoms or income and even more personal expression.
As technology advances, many rightly or wrongly believe that civilization will experience more freedoms and hence more of the “happy accidents” (nod to F.A. Hayek) which only freedom-based (rather than centralized) systems allow.
For them, technology offers a “great escape” from the dangers of the “great reset.”
This feels promising at first glance, but it too ignores the human-all-too-human reality that even advanced technologies are still steered by un-advanced humans, as the recent debacle at FTX easily reminds.
In short, like faith in human nature or faith in institutions, faith in technology is no cure all.
Enter CBDC—The Latest Lie from Above
As we now see in the slow yet inevitable evolution of Central Bank Digital Currencies, technology can in fact be used to further diminish rather than enhance human liberties.
It seems that in 2022 and now 2023, everyone is suddenly asking about CBDC. And they should be.
But what is it?
To begin with, CBDC is not a new currency, it’s a new payment system—one that is digital and encrypted rather than paper-based. Instead of dollars, yen, lira and euros, we’ll soon have e-dollars, e-yen, e-liras and e-euros etc.
In short, more crappy fiat money—just in digital form.
Furthermore, CBDCs are not cryptos. Yes, they are digital, encrypted and kept in a ledger, but they do not involve blockchain.
In essence, and much like a Visa or Mastercard service, CBDC involves a similar ledger technology, but in this new and twisted case it’s a controlled (rather than distributed) ledger of encrypted digital currencies managed by central banks.
In this new payment system, we hold digital money accessed by apps on our smart phones with an account directly linked to a central bank with (as the policy makers remind us) far greater speed and less intermediary costs (otherwise typical to credit cards).
All good, right?
Not so fast…
The CBDC Official Narrative: Only Half the Story
Like all dangerous, centralized and controlling ideas, CBDC was snuck in with consoling words during times of crisis.
But CBDC is far more than just an evolving and technological “eureka” moment.
CBDCs were first openly announced by the IMF at the onset of the Covid Crisis, which the IMF used as a convenient pretext to excuse decades of their own and other central-bank-driven (and historically unprecedented) debt sins.
Crises always boost the power of the state, and the Covid crisis boosted the power of the IMF to create new ways to promote bad ideas while centralizing more power. Although ignored by the media in 2020, I immediatelywarned of this in 2020.
Then came the BIS in 2021.
Like the IMF, the BIS telegraphed all the warm and fuzzy good news in a calm little video of CBDC “efficiencies,” “safety,” and “speed.”
The BIS took credit for leading the technological CBDC charge alongside 4 other key central banks (i.e., the Fed, the ECB etc.) and a select handful of 20 other “participants” (i.e., the same disastrous commercial banks who gave us the GFC in 2008) to eliminate certain “pain points and friction” in hitherto inefficient cross border settlements and FX transactions.
Then came Powell.
In the midst of a global inflationary crisis, gyrating markets and an avoidable yet disastrous war in the Ukraine, the Fed stepped in with its own one-sided puff piece as the world was distracted by bigger headlines.
With a calm expression and forked-tongue, Powell causally announced that the US will have a CBDC as the Fed plays a “leading role” in its development.
According to Powell, “the Fed is charged with the safety and efficiency of payment systems,” and that by “embracing innovation,” we good citizens can help the Fed in this historical process as the modern world evolves from telegraph wires and clearing houses to the new “Fed Now Service” driven by CBDC to ensure “safer financial transactions.”
Powell kindly reminds us that distributed ledgers of cryptos are not safe, as their swings in value prove.
Despite admitting that stable coins (directly linked to currencies) are better, he said they too are riddled with risks and thus not nearly as safe as digital currencies under “the same regulatory measures as our banking and financial firms.”
(Apparently, Powell thinks the public has forgotten Bear Stearns, Lehman, AIG, Long Term Capital Management and other “regulated” enterprises of this corrupted ilk…)
Powell closed this blue-pill video by saying that the Fed’s focus with a CBDC is to improve on an already safe system—as a compliment to, not a replacement of cash. He further promised to take into consideration issues of law and privacy, and warmly announced that, “we look forward to hearing your thoughts on this important topic.”
All warm and fuzzy, safe, innovative and democratic, right?
Again: Not so fast.
CBDC’s Other Story: One Big Lie of Many Omissions
There are many obvious yet omitted dangers (and motives) behind CBDC (as lies of omission are the most common symptom of benevolent tyranny).
What neither the IMF, the BIS nor Powell discussed are likely the most honest motives behind CBDC.
1. Kill the Crypto Competition
As I’ve argued almost from the onset of the crypto mania, the success of cryptos would eventually become their ultimate undoing, as the concept of alternative digital currencies outside of the banking system was a direct threat to sovereign power.
If forced to choose a “winner” in a war between the power of a blockchain BTC and a corrupt banking system (tied to the hip of sovereign power), my bet (sadly) was always on the corrupt.
CBDC, in short, is a direct assault on the growing (and in many ways free and admirable) crypto narrative.
2. Debt “Reset:” Impose Negative Rates & Screw the People
As I’ve also argued for years, all debt-soaked regimes need negative rates to climb out of the bottomless debt hole they alone created.
By forcing citizens into a CBDC system, banks like the Fed can “efficiently and quickly” impose negative rates (i.e., where you pay banks to hold your money rather than receive positive interest for your deposits). This already happened in Europe.
Furthermore, given that all major nations are suffering debt to GDP ratios well past the fatal 100% level, with capital to asset levels surpassing the 200:1 mark, it’s now patently obvious in a rising rate and declining tax-revenue environment that nations like the U.S. can’t afford to pay even the interest on their unprecedented debt piles.
In this sickening backdrop, CBDC systems allow indebted nations to better control, and hence steel from, their citizens.
When currencies are “reset” (like Germany in 48), the government can “convert” your old money to the new money while simultaneously (due to a “crisis”) keeping a percentage for themselves as a clever way to pay their debts via digital hold-backs (i.e., theft).
And given that the entire world is over $300T in debt, one can bet that a massive debt restructuring (akin to a global bankruptcy declaration) is inevitable. CBDCs are thus being rolled out beforehand to make this intra-bank and cross border restructuring (theft) more “efficient.”
But that’s just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to controlling citizen money and freedoms.
3. A Cashless Control State
Despite Powell’s words to the contrary (as unreliable as his transitory inflation promise), the longer-term aim and practice of a forced digital currency system is to take cash out of the system.
Under a CBDC regime, citizen money can be digitally monitored, withheld, frozen, taxed, penalized or otherwise controlled should such a citizen (or collection of citizens) challenge or threaten the state—rightfully or wrongly.
I’m thinking of those truckers in Canada…
But as Mussolini himself said: “Fascism is the perfect marriage of corporations and the state.” CBDC is a giant leap in that sadly familiar direction.
In short, financial and personal privacy slowly but surely disappears under a CBDC system, and you can be assured that if the Mad King George had access to CBDC in 1776, folks with poor social credit scores like Ben Franklin, Thomas Jefferson, George Washington or James Madison would have been monitored, frozen and made financially impotent long before they ever had a chance to freely assemble near the Liberty Bell in Philadelphia.
Thus, even if Powell promises legal and privacy rights today, what happens tomorrow when we inevitably (if not already) fall under another mad king?
Stated bluntly, CBDC is not about freedom, individual rights or privacy. It is pure control masquerading as a safer payment system and faster trans-national currency settlements.
But which would you prefer? What is more important– personal liberty or “efficient payment systems”?
Powell said he was “looking forward” to our thoughts. Well, now he has mine.
Frankly: Shame on him.
Gold, CBDC and a Shortage of Easy Answers
Given the case made above that no easy answers to our current global nightmare (political, financial or ethical) can rest solely upon a faith in institutions, individual leaders or even technologies, as each of these “solutions” is vulnerable to the human element of corruption and ignorance—what will save us?
Do I have an answer to these manifold and increasingly troubling signs and times?
I do not.
Gold, of course, can not solve the laundry list of fracturing faiths, economies, politics, societies, currencies, borders and systems making the headlines of each passing day.
That’s a human, or even spiritual question which I will not pretend to answer/solve here.
Nor can I fully predict the precise timing, measures and misuses of CBDC near-term or long term.
Will gold-backed SDR’s come? Will banking systems and credit card systems change immediately or slowly? When will gold free-float? When will derivative markets implode? What will trigger the next banking crisis?
Again: I can’t say or time. No one can.
What I can say, sadly, is that political and monetary corruption, from ancient China to modern DC, or from Roman coins or crappy paper dollars to “advanced” CBDCs is nothing new under the sun.
But gold (sourced from the periodic table rather than a periodic printer) has never been corrupted by the sun’s rays nor man’s mechanizations. It can’t be printed, mouse-clicked or digitalized. Alas: It’s harder for governments and banks to control.
Without exception, physical gold has always been the only form of real money that has survived the death of one system and currency after the next, be they debased by ancient metallurgists, modern money printers or digital cons.
As history continues its sad and desperate pattern of more control, more debasement and more double-speak, I can only place portions of my faith and wealth in the one asset—the only asset—that has always preserved citizen wealth in a world where its leaders have consistently destroyed it (from coins, cash and digital) for thousands and thousands of years.
3. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries//
Your weekend reading material:
Alasdair Macleod..
Alasdair Macleod: The benefits of a savings culture
Submitted by admin on Thu, 2023-01-05 11:55Section: Daily Dispatches
By Alasdair Macleod GoldMoney.Toronto Thursday, January 5, 2023
Savings are a vital component of any successful economy, and the foolishness behind the paradox of thrift is exposed in this article. It has been a huge error for Keynesian policy makers to discourage savings in the interests of temporary boosts to consumerism.
It is probably too late now but encouraging people to save by removing all taxation from savings makes an enormous contribution to reducing price inflation and trade deficits, while enhancing national wealth. This is evidenced empirically and demonstrated by reasoned theory.
Furthermore, there is an error in assuming that there is no alternative to Triffin’s dilemma, which posited that for a nation to produce a meaningful level of reserve currency for external circulation it must run trade deficits. Triffin was describing the problems the United States gave itself under the Bretton Woods agreement, leading to the failure of the London gold pool in the late sixties. It still informs U.S. policy makers today and wrongly leads American commentators to believe that the dollar cannot be toppled from its pre-eminent position.
But Triffin’s dilemma assumes that central banks must accumulate currency reserves. Unless a government has foolishly indebted itself in a foreign currency, there is no need for them to do so. Currency reserves add nothing to a domestic currency’s stability. Gold fulfilled this role successfully, and is likely to do so again in future.
It is a savings ratio of 45% that is at the root of China’s power.
The lack of savings in America and its western alliance is their Achilles’ heel. …
Craig Hemke’s forecast for gold and silver in 2023:
Craig Hemke/Sprott/GATA
Craig Hemke at Sprott Money: A forecast for gold and silver in 2023
Submitted by admin on Thu, 2023-01-05 20:03Section: Daily Dispatches
8p ET Thursday, January 5, 2023
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Writing at Sprott Money, Craig Hemke of the TF Metals Report gives his monetary metals forecast for 2023, predicting that the Federal Reserve will cause an economic recession in the United States by raising interest rates and then revert to “quantitative easing,” sending the metals to record levels.
Hemke’s analysis is headlined “One Step Beyond — A Forecast for Gold and Silver in 2023” and it’s posted at Sprott Money here:
Solar panels plunged in price as supplies have caught up with demand.
Silver is a major component on the panels.
(zerohedge)
Solar Panel Material Price Plunges Amid Glut
FRIDAY, JAN 06, 2023 – 05:45 AM
The price of critical material for solar panels plunged this week as supply has caught up with demand, according to BloombergNEF.
The average cost of the highest grade of polysilicon slid another 20% this week due to oversupplied conditions. This also led to a 1% drop in solar panel prices to the lowest nominal value since May 2021.
According to the China Silicon Industry Association, polysilicon produced in China increased to 96,700 metric tons in December 2022, 7.5% more than in the previous month. New polysilicon manufacturing capacity in China boosted domestic production in 2022 by 66%.
BNEF analysis shows polysilicon prices are in freefall. Now at $24 per kilogram.
The good news is that polysilicon is at the heart of manufacturing solar panels. This could mean panel prices are set to decline further.
5. Commodity commentaries//SAND
This is important: the world is running out of “good” sand..the sand that we use for building stuff
(zerohedge)
As The World Runs Out Of Sand, Chinese ‘Pirates’ Profit, Plunder, & Pillage
Life is a beach, they say, and we’re all just playing in the sand. Soon, though, there might not be any sand left. That’s because the world is running out of it.
Running out of sand, you ask, how can that be? After all, 33 percent of Earth is covered in desert, and many of these deserts have copious amounts of sand (not all of them, though). Yes, that’s true, but desert sand, like sea sand, lacks the compressive strength needed to construct houses, skyscrapers, roads, and bridges. In other words, when it comes to the world of construction, both desert sand and sea sand are utterly useless. This is why there is a race to secure the limited amounts of appropriate sand available.
Scarcity breeds desperation and this desperation is particularly palpable in China. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has deployed “pirates” to raid neighboring countries. In truth, the “pirates” have been plundering and pillaging for years. In recent times, however, they have zeroed in on Taiwan, stripping the island of its valuable deposits.
Now, it’s time to add sand, the most-extracted solid material in existence, to this ever-growing, highly-eclectic list. The importance of sand cannot be emphasized enough. Water is the world’s most-consumed natural resource; sand is the second most. Every construction project relies on using sand—the correct type of sand. By 2030, the construction market is expected to be worth $14.4 trillion; two years ago, it was worth $6.4 trillion. We’ll need more sand, but there might not be enough of it to go around.
Demand for sand is soaring, and this demand will likely increase dramatically over the next three to four decades. This brings us to China, a country with a voracious appetite for construction-friendly sand. In many ways, the appetite should come as little surprise; when it comes to constructing roads, bridges, and buildings, China leads the way. In an effort to satisfy its appetite, the CCP is targeting its neighbor, Taiwan.
A tourist sits facing the Taiwan Strait at the 68-nautical-mile scenic spot, one of mainland China’s closest points to Taiwan, in Pingtan Island, Fujian Province, China, on Aug. 5, 2022. (Aly Song/Reuters)
The targeting started back in 2019. In response to the CCP’s attempt to mine the island dry, Taiwan’s coastguard deployed numerous drones and water cannons to deter the invading sand miners. On that occasion, the miner retreated—but not for long. The Chinese “pirates” returned, focusing on the Taiwan-run Matsu Island, an archipelago consisting of 19 islands.
As Foreign Policy’s Elisabeth Braw reported in July 2022, “China is increasing its dredging of sand in the islands’ waters.” Such “devious activity” works to China’s advantage and leaves Taiwan with “large expenses and maritime degradation.” Susumu Takai, president of the Security Strategy Research Institute of Japan, told Braw that China lacks enough sand to continue its construction projects in various Chinese cities.
The Chinese regime doesn’t consider its activity to be illegal. Why? Because, as most readers are aware, the CCP claims Taiwan is part of China.
The CCP’s sheer greed and lack of respect also extend to other parts of Asia. Last year, as Reuters reported, dredgers were spotted off Cambodia’s Ream naval base. Not coincidentally, the dredgers happened to be operating in the very same area where Beijing happens to be funding construction projects and the development of various port facilities. In June 2022, The Washington Post ran a piece on China’s construction of a secret naval base in Cambodia. Sand, it seems, is not the only reason why China is interested in Cambodia.
Just to reiterate: China isn’t the only country scrambling to secure sand. This is a global crisis that affects the United States just as much as it affects China. Although the Chinese regime is likely to continue pillaging and acting with a high degree of impunity, there is hope for the United States.
According to Stanford geographer and environmental scientist Eric Lambin, the United States needn’t fixate too much on the mining process. “Instead of mining unconsolidated sediment deposits,” Lambin urges the government to focus on the crushing of rocks “or by recycling construction and demolition waste such as concrete or masonry.” This is because crushed rock is often considered a superior option, “thanks to better control over mineralogical composition and shape.” Whether or not Lambin’s advice is heeded remains to be seen.
In the meantime, keep an eye out for China’s sand “pirates,” whose hunger for granular deposits is likely to become even more voracious over the coming years.
END
6/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
END
1. YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS//FRIDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: UP TO 6.8613
OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.8695
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 2.42 PTS OR 0.08%
HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 60.53 PTS 0.29%
2. Nikkei closed UP 153.05 PTS OR 0.59%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL MOSTLY GREEN
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 105.38 Euro FALLS TO 104.94DOWN 27 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.501!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 134.64/JAPANESE YEN RISING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN: UP-// OFF- SHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy the 9 TRILLION YEN’S worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DONW FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.2975%***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 4.321%*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 3.352…** DANGEROUS//
3i Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO 4.420//
3j Gold at $1836.95//silver at: 23.39 7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 3/100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 72.21//
3m oil into the 73 dollar handle for WTI and 78 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 134.64
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.9399–as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9863 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.737% UP 2 BASIS PTS…GETTING DANGEROUS
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.798% UP 0 BASIS PTS//
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18,77…
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: 3.588 % UP 5 BASIS PTS
end
i.b Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:
FIRST, ZEROHEDGE (PRE USA OPENING// MORNING
Futures Flat Ahead Of Closely Watched Jobs Report
FRIDAY, JAN 06, 2023 – 08:02 AM
US equity futures struggled to maintain gains on Friday as traders awaited the December jobs report that will help chart the path forward for Fed monetary tightening. Contracts on the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500 were unchanged at 7:15am ET, erasing earlier gains sparked by a report that China was planning to relax restrictions on developer borrowing, and dial its stringent “three red lines” policy that exacerbated one of the biggest real estate meltdowns in the country’s history. US equities dropped on Thursday as separate data showed the labor market remained strong. European markets were steady as data showed euro-area inflation returned to single digits for the first time since August. Treasury 10-year yields steadied after climbing for the first time this week on Thursday following comments from Fed officials, while a measure of dollar strength climbed for a second day, as the yen fell to levels not seen in a week, after the Bank of Japan unveiled further unscheduled bond buying to control its yield curve.
Among notable movers in premarket trading, Tesla tumbled as the electric-car maker made another round of price cuts on its Model 3 and Y electric vehicles in China. Bed Bath & Beyond dropped after the home furnishings retailer began preparing for a bankruptcy filing, also weighing on shares of other retail trader favorites. Here are other notable premarket movers:
Apple is little changed as Morgan Stanley says the stock could fall further on worries over wilting demand and production snags.
Alvotech & Teva Pharmaceuticals say the U.S. Food and Drug Administration has accepted for review a Biologics License Application for AVT04, Alvotech’s proposed biosimilar to Stelara, which is prescribed to treat a variety of inflammatory conditions. Alvo shares gain 6.4%, Teva rises 0.4% in light trading.
Atai Life Sciences (ATAI) says it may explore steps including strategic partnership options after its Phase 2a trial of PCN-101 (R-ketamine) for treatment-resistant depression missed its primary endpoint. Shares sink 45%.
Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) slumps 13% after the home furnishings retailer began preparing for a bankruptcy filing, also weighing on shares of other retail trader favorites.
CytomX (CTMX) surges 64% as analysts raised their price targets on the biotech after reporting a research collaboration agreement with Moderna, which brokers said demonstrated the strength of CytomX’s platform. Separately, CytomX gave an update on a phase 2 study for its CX-2029 treatment, which brokers said was mixed.
Fate Therapeutics (FATE) tumbles 53% after the biotech company terminated a collaboration deal with Janssen Biotech and said it would discontinue its FT596 product candidate. Several analysts slashed their share price targets, with Cantor Fitzgerald describing Fate’s moves as major setbacks.
Graphite Bio Inc. (GRPH) plunges 50% as it pauses a study of its experimental gene therapy for sickle cell disease after the first patient had a serious adverse event, prompting at least two analysts to downgrade the stock.
Molson Coors (TAP) upgraded to outperform at Cowen with the group seen on a strong footing for 2023, while peer Constellation Brands is cut to market perform on downtrading challenges. TAP gains 1.4% in light trading.
Novocure (NVCR) shares fall 6.4% as Wells Fargo cuts the stock to equal- weight from overweight with its positive thesis on the oncology firm now played out.
Sight Sciences Inc. (SGHT) shares are up 2.8% after Stifel upgraded the medical device company to buy from hold, seeing a positive near-term setup for the stock.
Tesla (TSLA) shares fall 6% as the electric-car maker makes another round of price cuts on its Model 3 and Y electric vehicles in China.
World Wrestling Entertainment (WWE) shares rise 10% after controlling shareholder and former CEO Vince McMahon sought to return to the company and is proposing a possible sale of the business.
Zynex (ZYXI) is upgraded to overweight from neutral at Piper Sandler, which notes strong execution from the medical device maker and sees room for possible multiple expansion. Shares gain 1.5%.
After their worst annual drop since 2008 and a record underperformance against European stocks in the fourth quarter, US equities began the new year with further declines amid signals from the Fed that it remains staunchly hawkish until inflation cools further. The next clue will in today’s December jobs report, with Bloomberg Economics expecting a more subdued increase in employment. Estimates for US nonfarm payroll numbers peg a decline in new jobs added, indicating a cooling in the labor market that would in turn reduce the need for higher interest rates. Median estimate for December nonfarm payrolls change is 202k (vs crowd-sourced whisper number 243k), while average hourly earnings are expected to increase 0.4% vs 0.6% in November. However, private payrolls figures out on Thursday surpassed estimates and a surprise drop in new claims for unemployment benefits underscored a robust jobs market. Our full preview can be found here.
“Investors are still highly sensitive to the direction of monetary policy and this has potential to cause fresh headwinds for valuations,” said Susannah Streeter, senior investment and markets analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown. Any indications of resilience in the labor market or stubborn inflation “are likely to send fresh jitters through stocks,” she said.
The Fed has remained “extremely hawkish” to avoid unintentionally easing financial conditions, said Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at Oanda. “But another strong jobs report today would further justify such a hawkish approach and perhaps send risk assets into a bit of a tailspin as the prospect of a higher terminal rate increases alongside recession risks,” he wrote in a note.
Overnight, Citi strategists led by Robert Buckland cut US shares to underweight on the grounds that earnings expectations are still too optimistic. Meanwhile, the latest EPFR fund flows data showed investors continued to flock to cash and out of equities in the week through Jan. 4. Inflows into money market funds were at $112 billion for the week – the most since April 2020, when the pandemic was spreading globally – as equity fund outflows continued.
Market pricing for US interest rates to peak in June rose to above 5% following comments from Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, who said the central bank still has “much work to do” to tame inflation. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, who is no longer a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee, said rates were approaching a sufficiently restrictive zone and that inflation expectations had retreated, offering investors some optimism.
In Europe, energy and miners outperformed while financial services and autos lag. The Euro Stoxx 50 was steady with FTSE MIB outperforming peers, adding 0.4%. Here are some of the biggest European movers today:
Shell shares gain after the oil and gas group reported higher gas trading in 4Q, though analysts said its update looks “mixed.” Shares rise as much as 1.3%.
Nel shares gain as much as 5.9% in Oslo after agreeing with HH2E for FEED (Front End Engineering and Design) study and Letter of Intent for two 60 MW electrolyser plants.
Small-cap UK stock Nanoco rises a record 69% in London, after the company said it had settled its litigation with Samsung ahead of a trial that was due to start today.
Shares in British shipping company Clarkson rise as much as 9.2%, with Liberum anticipating “strong” 2022 results that will be ahead of current market expectations, including at least £98m profit before tax.
Standard Chartered shares fall as much as 2.8% after analysts said they consider a takeover of the London-listed lender as unlikely given the “deal complexity,” with JPMorgan analyst noting that such a transaction would require “a number of regulatory approvals.”
Sodexo shares lost as much as 3% after the French catering and services group reported fiscal first- quarter revenue that beat the average analyst estimate but left limited upside after the stock rallied close to 50% in 2H 2022.
Rentokil Initial shares drop as much as 5.2% after Exane BNP Paribas initiated coverage with a recommendation of underperform.
Danone shares fall as much as 2.8% after Morgan Stanley makes a number of changes to its order of preference within the sector, including a lower rating on Diageo to equal- weight, Danone to underweight.
Earlier in the session, Asia stocks rose in the first week of trading in 2023 amid optimism over China’s reopening and a potential bottoming out of earnings in the chip sector. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced as much as 0.8% Friday before paring gains to 0.1%, led by South Korea. Samsung’s worst profit fall in more than a decade cemented expectations of capex cuts and a price boost from reduced chip supplies, supporting sentiment for the sector. China’s CSI 300 Index rose for a fifth day while Hong Kong stocks retreated after a recent rally. The nation is set to reopen its borders to international travelers on Sunday. It’s also planning to relax restrictions on developer borrowing, dialing back the stringent “three red lines” policy that exacerbated its real estate meltdown. China’s Consumer Sentiment Rebounds as Economy Reopens: Chart The Asian stock benchmark is on track for its longest winning streak since September 2021. The gains came ahead of the US nonfarm payroll report due later Friday. Private payrolls data released Thursday surpassed estimates, underscoring a robust jobs market. “Even though the US Fed is expected to remain hawkish, the US economy is most likely to be resilient on the back of strong consumption,” said Daniel Yoo, head of global asset allocation at Yuanta Securities Korea. “This is a positive for Asian exporters in the medium to long term.”
Japanese equities erased their morning losses to close higher, as the weakening yen boosted exporting companies. The Topix Index rose 0.4% to 1,875.76 as of market close Tokyo time, while the Nikkei advanced 0.6% to 25,973.85. Sony Group Corp. contributed the most to the Topix Index gain, increasing 2.4% as analysts were positive on announcements at the Consumer Electronics Show on new products including its self-driving electric vehicle with Honda as well as PlayStation sales. Out of 2,162 stocks in the index, 1,273 rose and 768 fell, while 121 were unchanged. “The ADP jobs data exceeded market expectations, with investor worries that the Fed would continue to be hawkish, which strengthened the dollar and weakened the yen slightly in the foreign exchange market,” said Kiyoshi Ishigane chief fund manager at Mitsubishi UFJ Kokusai Asset Management. “The slightly weaker yen has softened the downside from the fall in US stocks.”
In FX, the dollar climbs 0.2% to session high ahead of the jobs report, pulling all G-10 FX lower. The yen was the biggest underperformer, falling to its lowest level against the dollar since Dec. 20, trading at ~134.26 per dollar. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%; for the week, the gauge is up 1.2% in what’s set to be its biggest rally since the week ended Sept. 23.
The Yen extended losses after a Bloomberg report that Bank of Japan officials see little need to rush to make another adjustment to its yield-curve control policy. USD/JPY rose as much as 0.9% to 134.59; The move came as Japan reported that real earnings declined 3.8% in November from a year earlier, the most since May 2014. “Most significant and marginally yen-negative news out of Japan was the weaker-than-expected cash and real earnings data which serves to reinforce the notion that a formal YCC policy change is far from imminent,” said NAB’s Attrill. “We don’t expect one at least until 2H 2023.”
EUR/USD fell as much as 0.2% to 1.0497 before paring part of that drop; Data showed that euro-area inflation returned to single digits for the first time since August. While the headline inflation figure fell to 9.2%, below economists’ 9.5% forecast, a measure that strips out energy and food edged up to a record 5.2%
The Norwegian krone is set to be the biggest loser of the week vs. dollar, down 4.4%, its worst week since April
In rates, this week’s sharp flattening move extends into early US session with long-end yields slightly richer on the day and front-end lagging, guided by wider bull-flattening move seen in the German curve following euro-zone CPI data. US yields are cheaper by up to 2bp across front-end and belly of the curve with 10-year trading around 3.725%, cheaper by 0.5bp vs Thursday’s close and lagging bunds by 3bp in the sector; bunds and UST 10-year yields are little changed, trading within Thursday’s range; comparable gilts yields underperform by about a basis point.
In commodities, oil stabilized after a string of declines that wiped nearly 10% from the price of crude. WTI up 0.8% to below $75. Gold climbed after retreating Thursday from a six-month high reached earlier in the week. Spot gold rose ~$3 to near $1,836/oz. Most base metals trade in the green.
Looking to the day ahead now, and the main data highlight will be the US jobs report for December. Otherwise in the US we’ll get the ISM services index for December and factory orders for November, whilst in Europe there’s the flash Euro Area CPI reading for December, along with German factory orders and retail sales for November. Meanwhile from central banks, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Bostic, Cook, Barkin and George, as well as the ECB’s Centeno and Lane.
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures little changed at 3,825.75
STOXX Europe 600 little changed at 438.97
MXAP little changed at 157.70
MXAPJ little changed at 520.71
Nikkei up 0.6% to 25,973.85
Topix up 0.4% to 1,875.76
Hang Seng Index down 0.3% to 20,991.64
Shanghai Composite little changed at 3,157.64
Sensex down 0.8% to 59,867.28
Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.7% to 7,109.59
Kospi up 1.1% to 2,289.97
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.31%
Euro little changed at $1.0512
Brent Futures little changed at $78.70/bbl
Gold spot up 0.2% to $1,835.99
U.S. Dollar Index up 0.34% to 105.40
Top Overnight News from Bloomberg
China is planning to relax restrictions on developer borrowing, dialing back the stringent “three red lines” policy that exacerbated one of the biggest real-estate meltdowns in the country’s history
The European Central Bank should complete its interest-rate increases “by the summer” and then be prepared to hold for a potentially sustained period to tame inflation that remains too high, Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said
Japanese workers’ real wages fell by the most in eight years, suggesting that there’s still some way to go before the central bank can achieve its wage-growth accompanied price goal. The Bank of Japan resumed additional bond buying operation after a new benchmark bond yield touched its 0.5% ceiling
Japan wants the Group of Seven advanced economies to take a coordinated approach this year aimed at preventing the “economic coercion” that China has applied to some of its trading partners
Mexico’s Finance Ministry nominated Banxico adviser Omar Mejia Castelazo to the central bank’s board, an unexpected choice to replace its most dovish member Gerardo Esquivel
China’s trade restrictions on Australian wine, lobsters and other commodities could be the next to ease amid a warming of diplomatic ties and expectations that Beijing will soon resume imports of coal
The US House adjourned as Kevin McCarthy’s allies tried to strike a deal with members of the group who’ve blocked the California Republican from being elected speaker in a historic 11 rounds of voting
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
Asia-Pac stocks traded mostly with cautious gains despite a negative lead from Wall Street, and ahead of the US labour market data. ASX 200 saw gains across the Metals, Mining and Resources names, but the upside was capped by the Healthcare and Tech sectors. Nikkei 225 briefly topped the 26k level whilst the banking sector underperformed after Thursday’s sectoral outperformance. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were firmer with the former initially bolstered by property names, with source reports from Bloomberg flagging further housing market easing measures, although the earlier gains faded throughout the session.
Top Asian News
BoJ reportedly sees little need to rush major yield adjustments, according to Bloomberg sources
BoJ to conduct emergency bond buying for 5yr and 10yr maturities, according to Reuters.
China could ease “three red lines” property rules in a major shift, according to Bloomberg sources. It will allow some property firms to add more leverage, and it pushes back the grace period for meeting debt targets, whilst deadlines may be extended by at least six months.
PBoC drained a net CNY 1.6tln for the week via OMO – the largest weekly net cash withdrawal on record, according to Reuters.
PBoC injected CNY 2bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate maintained at 2.00%; daily net drain CNY 384bln
Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) Prelim Q4 (KRW): Revenue 70tln (exp. 71tln), Operating Profit 4.3tln (exp. 5.9tln, BBG exp. 6.65tln); Memory chip demand fell more than expected in Q4 amid clients’ concerns on consumer sentiment. Smartphone sales fell in Q4 due to demand weakness from macro issues. Price of memory chips fell continuously in Q4 due to chipmakers’ increased inventory, according to Reuters.
China has released the 10th edition of COVID prevention and control protocols, will further optimise clinical catergorisation and treatment method. Adds positive antigen tests as a diagnostic standard.
Evergrande (3333 HK) to hold a meeting with offshore bondholders on Wednesday, to discuss debt restructuring proposals, via Reuters citing sources.
European bourses are little changed overall but do feature a slim positive skew, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.1%, pre-NFP. US futures are similarly contained with modest divergence around the unchanged mark, ES +0.1%, with attention on the NFP print, subsequent ISM Services PMI and Fed speak thereafter. Tesla (TSLA) to cut Model 3 & Y prices in China, Japan and South Korea according to reports. Subsequent Reuters sources state price cuts outside of China are being done with a view to support plant output. Citi (C) equity updates: cuts US to Underweight, raises continental-Europe to Overweight, raises Australia to Neutral.
Top European News
German Chancellor Scholz to invite the auto industry for talks on Tuesday, to discuss supply chains, mobility and climate.
Lufthansa to Revive Aging A340s Amid Dearth of First Class Seats
UK House Prices May Decline by 8% This Year, Halifax Says
German Factory Orders Plummet as Manufacturers Under Siege
Stellantis May Shut More Plants as Electrification Costs Bite
FX
DXY maintains its recovery momentum ahead of the US agenda with the index up to a 105.52 peak at best.
Though, it has slipped a touch from this in wake of hotter-than-expected core EZ inflation, sending EUR/USD more comfortably above 1.05, though shy of initial best levels.
JPY has taken the brunt of the USD’s resurgence amid reports that the BoJ sees little need for further hasty YCC tweaks, with USD/JPY surpassing 134.50.
More broadly, peers are down across the board vs the USD, though to varying degrees with the overall tone somewhat tentative pre-NFP.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.8912 vs exp. 6.8914 (prev. 6.8926)
Fixed Income
Bunds experienced modest but ultimately fleeting downside in wake of the hot core/super-core EZ inflation print, sending the German benchmark to a 135.74 low.
Albeit, the move pared back in short order with EGBs and USTs lower to the tune of around 10/15 and 5 ticks respectively ahead of the PM agenda.
Australian government cuts FY22/23 bond issuance by AUD 10bln vs original plans, according to reports.
Commodities
Crude benchmarks are firmer, but have been subject to two-way price action throughout the morning which has been directionally in-fitting with but slightly more pronounced than equity action.
Currently, WTI Feb’23 and Brent Mar’23 are posting gains just shy of 1.0% as the upside stalled a touch around USD 0.30/bbl shy of the USD 75/bbl and USD 80/bbl handles respectively.
China Energy has reportedly placed an order for Australian coal – among the first deals since the 2020 unofficial ban, according to Reuters sources.
Spot gold is modestly firmer though is yet to recoup all of the marked downside seen in yesterday’s session, which saw the yellow metal surrender the USD 1850/oz handle.
Geopolitics
US and Japan to hold security talks in Washington on January 11th, according to Bloomberg.
Russian State TV says the ceasefire has come into force along the entire front in Ukraine; in-fitting with the order from President Putin.
Turkish Defence Minister says Greece is carrying out acts of incitement against us, and we did not get a positive response from them regarding the establishment of a dialogue, via AJ Breaking.
US Event Calendar
08:30: Dec. Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, est. 202,000, prior 263,000
Change in Private Payrolls, est. 182,000, prior 221,000
Change in Manufact. Payrolls, est. 8,000, prior 14,000
Unemployment Rate, est. 3.7%, prior 3.7%
Labor Force Participation Rate, est. 62.2%, prior 62.1%
Underemployment Rate, prior 6.7%
Average Weekly Hours All Emplo, est. 34.4, prior 34.4
Average Hourly Earnings MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.6%
Average Hourly Earnings YoY, est. 5.0%, prior 5.1%
10:00: Nov. Factory Orders, est. -1.0%, prior 1.0%
10:00: Nov. Durable Goods Orders, est. -2.1%, prior -2.1%;
Less Transportation, prior 0.2%
Nov. Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, prior -0.1%
Nov. Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, prior 0.2%
Nov. Factory Orders Ex Trans, prior 0.8%
10:00: Dec. ISM Services Index, est. 55.0, prior 56.5
Central Bank Speakers
11:15: Fed’s Cook Takes Part in Panel Discussion on Inflation
11:15: Fed’s Bostic and ECB’s Lane Discuss the Global Economic…
12:15: Fed’s Barkin Speaks on the Economic Outlook
13:00: Fed’s George Discusses the Economic Outlook
15:30: Fed’s Bostic Discusses Lessons From the Pandemic
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Following a strong start to 2023, markets finally fell back yesterday after strong US data and hawkish remarks from Fed officials led investors to price in more rate hikes over the months ahead. The initial catalyst came from the ADP’s report of private payrolls, which showed an unexpectedly strong gain in December of +235k (vs. +150k expected), whilst the previous month was also revised up to +182k (vs. +127k previously). Treasury yields began to rise immediately after that release, which was then followed up by the jobless claims data, which showed that initial claims had fallen to a 3-month low of just 204k in the last week of 2022 (vs. 225k expected). So further evidence pointing to a tight labour market, particularly when you consider the JOLTS report for November from the previous day. Claims likely showed some seasonal distortion but there is little doubting the still strong labour market.
That focus on the labour market will continue today, since we’ll get the US jobs report for December at 13:30 London time. In terms of what to expect, our US economists are looking for nonfarm payrolls to have grown by +175k in December, which should keep the unemployment rate steady at 3.7%. Keep an eye on average hourly earnings growth as well, particularly given the Fed’s focus on wage inflation. Our economists are expecting that to step down to +0.3%, having come in at a 10-month high of +0.6% last month.
In the meantime, these signs of strength in the labour market data led investors to price in a more aggressive path of rate hikes from the Fed yesterday. For instance, the chances they’ll continue hiking by 50bps at the next meeting in February now stand at 44.2% according to futures, which is up from 32% the previous day. And looking further out, the terminal rate priced in for June hit a 6-week high of 5.03% (cycle high 5.146% – Nov 3rd), with the year-end rate for December also up +13.6 bps to 4.67%.
Those views on the future policy path were given added support by the latest speakers from the FOMC. For instance, Kansas City Fed President George said that the Fed should keep rates above 5% into 2024, and Atlanta Fed President Bostic said that inflation was still “way too high”. St. Louis Fed President Bullard last night spoke a little more dovishly when he said that “the policy rate is not yet in a zone that may be considered sufficiently restrictive, but it is getting closer.” In a presentation, Bullard cited the recent FOMC dot plot showing the median projection of 5.1% as being adequately restrictive.
Notwithstanding Bullard, the overall backdrop yesterday meant that the sovereign bond rally so far this year came to a halt, with yields on 10yr Treasuries up by +3.5bps to 3.718%. That was echoed in Europe, where yields on 10yr bunds (+4.4bps), OATs (+4.5bps) and BTPs (+5.4bps) all moved higher on the day as well. The moves were driven by higher real yields, with the US 10yr real yield up +1.0bps to 1.49%, whilst the German 10yr real yield was up +10.4bps. Yields on 10yr USTs are fairly stable in the Asian session as we go to press.
For equities it was a similarly downbeat picture, with the S&P 500 (-1.16%) moving back into negative territory for 2023, with losses for both the NASDAQ (-1.47%) and the Dow Jones (-1.02%) as well. The main exception to that pattern were energy stocks (+1.99%), which were aided by the rebound in oil prices yesterday that saw WTI (+1.14%) back at $73.67/bbl. This morning, oil prices continue to build on their previous gains with Brent futures (+1.02%) trading just below $80/bbl and WTI (+1.06%) at $74.45/bbl. Otherwise it was a poor performance across the board however, and Europe’s STOXX 600 (-0.20%) lost ground for the first time this year, even as it continued its relative outperformance against the US indices with a c.5pp gap opening up in the first few days of the year.
Asian stock markets are generally trading higher this morning, but Chinese related equities have gone from positive to slightly negative as I finish this off. Elsewhere, the Nikkei (+0.42%) and the KOSPI (+0.66%) are losing a bit of momentum after a much more positive first half of the session. Outside of Asia, US stock futures are indicating a positive start with contracts on the S&P 500 (+0.31%) and the NASDAQ 100 (+0.27%) edging higher ahead of the December jobs report, but again off their highs.
Early morning data showed that real wages in Japan (-3.8% y/y) fell by the most in eight years and declined for the eighth consecutive month in November (v/s -2.8% expected). It followed the prior month’s revised drop of -2.9%. At the same time, cash earnings (+0.5% y/y) were also disappointing in November (v/s +1.7% expected) against a downwardly revised +1.4% rise in October. In addition, Japan’s services sector activity remained in expansion territory as the final au Jibun Bank services PMI advanced to 51.1 in December following a reading of 50.3 in November.
For a third straight day, the US House of Representatives was not able to vote in a new speaker. GOP leader Kevin McCarthy was not able to get Republicans to coalesce around him through another 5 ballots yesterday, taking the overall failed ballot count to 11. This is now the most ballots it has taken in order to elect a new Speaker since 1860. McCarthy had reportedly offered the holdouts one of their bigger demands – allowing any single member to bring forward a motion to vote on ousting the speaker, currently it takes half of the chamber. It would still take 50% of the chamber to remove the speaker, but it raises the risks of disorder around important votes. There continues to be a group of 6 or so Republicans who have declared themselves “Never-Kevin”, which complicates matters as the Republican leader can only afford 5 defections. Some McCarthy supporters have acknowledged that this process could extend into the weekend or longer if the party must find a new consensus candidate.
Otherwise on the geopolitical side, yesterday brought an announcement from Russia that there would be an unexpected ceasefire in Ukraine for 36 hours over today and tomorrow. The move coincides with Russian Orthodox Christmas and Putin asked Ukraine to reciprocate, but the request was rejected and Ukrainian presidential aide Mikhailo Podolyak said that Russia “must leave the occupied territories – only then will it have a “temporary truce”.”
Finally on the data side, Italian CPI fell to +12.3% in December on the EU-harmonised measure, which was in line with expectations but down from +12.6% in November. That comes ahead of the flash CPI release for the entire Euro Area today, where economists are widely expecting the year-on-year measure will decline for a second consecutive month.
To the day ahead now, and the main data highlight will be the US jobs report for December. Otherwise in the US we’ll get the ISM services index for December and factory orders for November, whilst in Europe there’s the flash Euro Area CPI reading for December, along with German factory orders and retail sales for November. Meanwhile from central banks, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Bostic, Cook, Barkin and George, as well as the ECB’s Centeno and Lane.
AND NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)
DXY maintains recovery momentum, JPY lower & EGBs/USTs ultimately contained pre-NFP – Newsquawk US Market Open
FRIDAY, JAN 06, 2023 – 06:39 AM
European bourses are little changed overall but do feature a slim positive skew, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.1%, pre-NFP; US futures similarly contained
DXY maintains its recovery momentum ahead of the US agenda with the index up to a 105.52 peak at best, with JPY taking the brunt of this.
EGBs experienced modest but ultimately fleeting downside in wake of hot core/super-core EZ inflation, though the benchmarks are little changed overall pre-NFP
Crude benchmarks are firmer, but have been subject to two-way price action throughout the morning which has been directionally in-fitting with but slightly more pronounced than equity action.
Looking ahead, highlights include US and Canadian Labour Market Reports, US ISM Services PMI, speeches from Fed’s Bostic, Cook, Barkin.
Or why not try Newsquawk’s squawk box free for 7 days?
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
European bourses are little changed overall but do feature a slim positive skew, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.1%, pre-NFP.
US futures are similarly contained with modest divergence around the unchanged mark, ES +0.1%, with attention on the NFP print, subsequent ISM Services PMI and Fed speak thereafter.
Tesla (TSLA) to cut Model 3 & Y prices in China, Japan and South Korea according to reports. Subsequent Reuters sources state price cuts outside of China are being done with a view to support plant output.
Citi (C) equity updates: cuts US to Underweight, raises continental-Europe to Overweight, raises Australia to Neutral.
DXY maintains its recovery momentum ahead of the US agenda with the index up to a 105.52 peak at best.
Though, it has slipped a touch from this in wake of hotter-than-expected core EZ inflation, sending EUR/USD more comfortably above 1.05, though shy of initial best levels.
JPY has taken the brunt of the USD’s resurgence amid reports that the BoJ sees little need for further hasty YCC tweaks, with USD/JPY surpassing 134.50.
More broadly, peers are down across the board vs the USD, though to varying degrees with the overall tone somewhat tentative pre-NFP.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.8912 vs exp. 6.8914 (prev. 6.8926)
Bunds experienced modest but ultimately fleeting downside in wake of the hot core/super-core EZ inflation print, sending the German benchmark to a 135.74 low.
Albeit, the move pared back in short order with EGBs and USTs lower to the tune of around 10/15 and 5 ticks respectively ahead of the PM agenda.
Australian government cuts FY22/23 bond issuance by AUD 10bln vs original plans, according to reports.
Crude benchmarks are firmer, but have been subject to two-way price action throughout the morning which has been directionally in-fitting with but slightly more pronounced than equity action.
Currently, WTI Feb’23 and Brent Mar’23 are posting gains just shy of 1.0% as the upside stalled a touch around USD 0.30/bbl shy of the USD 75/bbl and USD 80/bbl handles respectively.
China Energy has reportedly placed an order for Australian coal – among the first deals since the 2020 unofficial ban, according to Reuters sources.
Spot gold is modestly firmer though is yet to recoup all of the marked downside seen in yesterday’s session, which saw the yellow metal surrender the USD 1850/oz handle.
German Retail Sales MM Real (Nov) 1.1% vs. Exp. 1.0% (Prev. -2.8%); YY Real (Nov) -5.9% (Prev. -5.0%)
German Industrial Orders MM (Nov) -5.3% vs. Exp. -0.5% (Prev. 0.8%, Rev. 0.6%)
UK Halifax House Prices MM (Dec) -1.5% (Prev. -2.3%, Rev. -2.4%)
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
US House voted to adjourn until noon Friday after failing to elect a House Speaker.
A source close to Republican McCarthy confirmed a deal is on the table. It will not be enough to take him over the line, according to Reuters’ Slattery.
Tesla (TSLA) cut prices in China for Model 3 by 13.5% and Model Y by 10%.
US and Japan to hold security talks in Washington on January 11th, according to Bloomberg.
Russian State TV says the ceasefire has come into force along the entire front in Ukraine; in-fitting with the order from President Putin.
Turkish Defence Minister says Greece is carrying out acts of incitement against us, and we did not get a positive response from them regarding the establishment of a dialogue, via AJ Breaking.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin is little changed overall and currently resides towards the lower end of a contained sub-USD 200 range.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks traded mostly with cautious gains despite a negative lead from Wall Street, and ahead of the US labour market data.
ASX 200 saw gains across the Metals, Mining and Resources names, but the upside was capped by the Healthcare and Tech sectors.
Nikkei 225 briefly topped the 26k level whilst the banking sector underperformed after Thursday’s sectoral outperformance.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were firmer with the former initially bolstered by property names, with source reports from Bloomberg flagging further housing market easing measures, although the earlier gains faded throughout the session.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
BoJ reportedly sees little need to rush major yield adjustments, according to Bloomberg sources
BoJ to conduct emergency bond buying for 5yr and 10yr maturities, according to Reuters.
China could ease “three red lines” property rules in a major shift, according to Bloomberg sources. It will allow some property firms to add more leverage, and it pushes back the grace period for meeting debt targets, whilst deadlines may be extended by at least six months.
PBoC drained a net CNY 1.6tln for the week via OMO – the largest weekly net cash withdrawal on record, according to Reuters.
PBoC injected CNY 2bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate maintained at 2.00%; daily net drain CNY 384bln
Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) Prelim Q4 (KRW): Revenue 70tln (exp. 71tln), Operating Profit 4.3tln (exp. 5.9tln, BBG exp. 6.65tln); Memory chip demand fell more than expected in Q4 amid clients’ concerns on consumer sentiment. Smartphone sales fell in Q4 due to demand weakness from macro issues. Price of memory chips fell continuously in Q4 due to chipmakers’ increased inventory, according to Reuters.
China has released the 10th edition of COVID prevention and control protocols, will further optimise clinical catergorisation and treatment method. Adds positive antigen tests as a diagnostic standard.
Evergrande (3333 HK) to hold a meeting with offshore bondholders on Wednesday, to discuss debt restructuring proposals, via Reuters citing sources.
DATA RECAP
Japanese Real Cash Earnings (Nov) -3.8% vs Exp. -2.8%; fastest Y/Y fall since May 2014
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 2.42 PTS OR0.08% //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 60.53 PTS OR 0.29% /The Nikkei closed UP 153.05 PTS OR 0.29% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.68% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP TO 6.8615//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP TO 6.8695// /Oil DOWN TO 73.35 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 78.37 / Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY GREEN ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER
2 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
end
2B JAPAN
Japan
The End Of The Era Of Negative-Yielding Debt…
FRIDAY, JAN 06, 2023 – 06:55 AM
Overnight trading in Japan saw a landmark event pass quietly into the history books.
For the first time since 2014, there are no negative-yielding bonds in the world…
From a peak of $18.4 trillion in December 2020 (and over 4000 bonds with a negative yield), the experiment in financial repression is over… for now…
Will we ever see the 2014-2022 era again?
As Deutsche’s Jim Reid notes, before this point most people would have thought negative-yielding debt was an inconceivable concept.
While there is no value in buying negative yielding debt, especially in a fiat world where inflation will always likely be positive, you can’t rule out central banks having to buy large amounts of debt again in the future.
However, for now this looks set to be the welcome end of an era as some value returns to global fixed income.
end
3c CHINA /
CHINA/USA/TAIWAN
US Sending Delegation To Taiwan For Trade Talks In Move Sure To Anger China
The US is sending a delegation to Taiwan next week for trade talks with Taipei, the Office of the US Trade Representative (USTR) said on Wednesday, in a move sure to anger Beijing.
The US and Taiwan agreed to hold formal trade talks last year, and the first round was held in New York in November. Since Washington and Taiwan don’t have official relations, the negotiations are being held under the auspice of their respective de facto embassies, the American Institute in Taiwan, and the Taipei Economic Cultural Representative Office in the US.
But the US delegation is being led by Terry McCartin, the assistant US trade representative for China affairs, meaning the effort is being carried out by President Biden’s Executive Office. The USTR said the meetings in Taiwan would be attended by officials from several other government agencies.
According to The South China Post, Yang Jen-ni, Taiwan’s deputy trade representative, will lead the Taiwanese delegation, which will include dozens of officials from other departments.
China is against contact between high-level US and Taiwanese government officials as it views such cooperation as the US moving away from the one-China policy. Beijing is especially opposed to high-level US officials visiting Taiwan and typically reacts by launching military drills around the island.
The trade talks are an effort by the US to reduce economic dependence on China, and the overall increase in US contacts with Taiwan is part of the Biden administration’s strategy to counter China’s influence in the region. The USTR has dubbed the trade talks the US-Taiwan Initiative on 21st-Century Trade and said they are intended to “develop concrete ways to deepen the economic and trade relationship.”
The USTR said the talks will focus on multiple areas, including “reaching agreements on trade facilitation, good regulatory practices, strong anti-corruption standards, enhancing trade between our small and medium enterprises, deepening agriculture trade, removing discriminatory barriers to trade, digital trade, robust labor and environmental standards, as well as ways to address distortive practices of state-owned enterprises and non-market policies and practices.”
Another major factor in the talks is the fact that Taiwan is the world’s largest producer of advanced semiconductors, and the Biden administration is trying to entice Taiwanese companies to open more facilities inside the US. The US has targeted China’s chip industry with major sanctions in recent months, which marks a major shift in US trade policy toward the country.
END
CHINA/USA/TAIWAN
USA destroyer enters Taiwan strait which of course angers China greatly.
(zerohedge)
US Destroyer Enters Taiwan Strait As New China FM Argues “World Is Wide Enough” For Both Powers
THURSDAY, JAN 05, 2023 – 10:40 PM
In the latest sign that Washington is not backing down from its ramped-up military support to the democratic island of Taiwan, and at a moment repeat PLA aircraft incursions have continued their intensity, the US Navy has sailed another destroyer through the Taiwan Strait.
The Navy’s 7th Fleet announced Thursday its guided-missile destroyer Chung-Hoon made the passage as part of its commitment to a “free and open Indo-Pacific.”USS Chung-Hoon: US Navy/Wiki Commons
“The Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Chung-Hoon conducted a routine Taiwan Strait transit Jan. 5 (local time) through waters where high-seas freedoms of navigation and overflight apply in accordance with international law,” the Navy’s 7th Fleet Public Affairs office announced.
“Chung-Hoon’s transit through the Taiwan Strait demonstrates the United States’ commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific,” the Navy added.
Last month China’s Foreign Ministry accused the Pentagon of seeking to create new tensions across the Taiwan Strait with its provocative sail-throughs. At the same time the Chinese military has on multiple occasions in recent months breached the Taiwan Strait median line both in the air and at sea – a pattern which grew only after Nancy Pelosi’s provocative August visit to Taipei.
China’s warplane incursions into Taiwan’s air defense zone nearly doubled in 2022 compared to the year before as Newsweek reviews of the numbers:
Chinese military aircraft, mostly fighter jets, were detected in the island’s air defense identification zone, east of the Taiwan Strait median line, on 1,737 occasions in 2022, up from 972 in the previous 12 months, statistics compiled by U.S.-based analysts Gerald Brown and Ben Lewis revealed.
Meanwhile, as we noted earlier this week, Xi’s newly appointed Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang is busy attempting a ‘softening’ and breakthrough in US-China relations.
After taking over the post last Friday, before which he served as the ambassador to the US, he wrote in a new Washington Post op-ed published Wednesday that US-China competition “should not be a zero-sum game,” arguing further that “The world is wide enough for China and the US to both develop and prosper.”
He asserted that “decoupling serves no one’s interest”, but that healthy relations including economic cooperation “will remain an important mission” in his new role as Beijing’s top diplomat, but it remains that “Improving relations takes work by both sides,” he wrote.
Qin called for ‘stability’ in relations, ironically just ahead of next week’s US-Taiwan official trade delegation talks in defiance of China’s condemnations.
As South China Morning Post underscores, the White House is involved: “The trip – a rare visit of US executive branch officials to Taiwan since President Joe Biden took office – will mark the second round of face-to-face talks on the trade initiative and the first held on the island. Washington and Taipei agreed to the talks in June,” the report detailed.
end
CHINA/INDIA/RUSSIA
China and India are buying up as much Russian oil on the cheap as they can
Russia’s crude grades from the Arctic, which used to be sold in Europe before the EU embargo, are now heading East to the two biggest buyers of Russian oil since the invasion of Ukraine—China and India.
Russia’s grades from the Arctic – Arco, Arco/Novy Port, and Varandey – have been selling at deep discounts in China and India as the EU embargo and the G7 price cap have further pushed more Russian crude to customers in Asia that have not joined the Price Cap Coalition, according to trade data and sources cited by Reuters.
“All these Arctic crudes usually go to the EU but now they have to go elsewhere,” a Singapore-based trader told Reuters.
India imported at the end of 2022 its first cargo of Varandey crude from the Timan-Pechora oilfields operated by Lukoil, per sources and vessel-tracking data from Refinitiv.
Before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, India was a small marginal buyer of Russian crude oil. After Western buyers started shunning crude from Russia, India became a top destination for Russian oil exports alongside China.
Russia overtook Iraq to become the single-largest oil supplier to India in November, as Indian refiners raced to stock up on Russian oil ahead of the December 5 price cap and associated bans on transportation services for Russia’s crude.
In China, independent refiners have seen their refining margins jump in recent weeks as they have been able to negotiate steeper discounts for their preferred Russian crude grade, ESPO, even if they buy it above the G7 price cap.
While China hasn’t joined the Price Cap Coalition, the fact that a price cap now exists gives the world’s top crude oil importer, as well as other buyers of Russian crude such as India, more bargaining power to negotiate steep discounts for the Russian crude even outside the price cap mechanism, analysts say.
end
CHINA/ECONOMY
China reverses policy and will ease its three red lines rule to kickstart the world’s largest asset bubble: its real estate
This is extremely inflationary as China will export a considerable its inflation to the west.
(zerohedge)
In Huge Policy Reversal, China Will Ease “Three Red Lines” Rule To Kickstart World’s Biggest Asset Bubble
FRIDAY, JAN 06, 2023 – 02:20 PM
Back in 2020, around the time Xi Jinping decided to burst the Chinese housing bubble, which as a reminder was estimated by Goldman at the time as the world’s single largest asset class (and bubble) at over $62 trillion, larger than both the US equity and bond markets…
… China unveiled the so-called “three red lines” policy, which sought to reduce developers’ leverage, lower risk in the financial sector and make homes more affordable as part of President Xi Jinping’s common prosperity push and practically meant that only companies that have very little debt (which basically meant nobody) were allowed to grow their debt at a max of 15%, and since most Chinese developers were in the 2 or 3 red lines category, it prohibited them from growing debt (a full breakdown of the three criteria is shown below),
The measures, which imposed strict debt and cash-flow targets on real estate firms, choked off liquidity for the highest-leveraged developers, contributing to the avalanche of defaults and construction halts that sparked mortgage boycotts and plunging sales across the nation.
The outcome result was the biggest shock for China’s property sector, which quickly took down giant housing developer Evergrande and numerous of its undercapitalized peers, impoverished countless real estate billionaires (some say this was Xi’s plan all along), sent home prices sliding and hammered household consumption across China’s middle class, whose biggest asset – their home – was no longer appreciating at double digits every year and in fact was contracting for the first time in a decade.
So fast forward to today when just weeks after China’s shocked the world with the speed and magnitude of its “covid-zero” reversal, Beijing – in its pursuit of a powerful, and generously credit funded, economic rebound appears set to unleash the full power of the country’s real estate bubble because as Bloomberg reported overnight, “China is planning to relax restrictions on developer borrowing, dialing back the stringent “three red lines” policy that exacerbated one of the biggest real estate meltdowns in the country’s history.”
According to BBG sources, Beijing would allow “some property firms to add more leverage by easing borrowing caps”, and push back the grace period for meeting debt targets set by the policy. The deadline could be extended by at least six months from the original June 30 date.
Such easing could mark “the most dramatic shift in China’s real estate policy, adding to a clutch of measures issued since November to bolster the battered sector that accounts for about a quarter of the nation’s economy.” Indeed, within the span of just a few weeks, the government has softened its stance for sectors from chips and coal imports to internet platform businesses, underscoring Beijing’s resolve to refocus on economic growth.
“This is a signal from the top regulators in an attempt to help restore market confidence in the real estate sector and create a positive feedback loop between the homebuyers, developers, and the physical market,” said Zerlina Zeng, senior credit analyst at Creditsights Singapore LLC.
The news helped push China’s property index higher by 1.5% and nearly 100% above its late October low when Chinese assets saw a widespread global liquidation amid covid zero fears and Xi’s escalating crackdown on asset markets. Prices for China dollar high-yield notes, a sector dominated by property firms, have reached levels last seen in January 2022 at an average 75 cents on the dollar.
The offshore yuan surpassed its 200-day moving average for the first time since April after the news.
What does this policy reversal mean for China’s property markets, and economy in general? Well, consider that with access to credit markets largely closed since 2020, developers had defaulted on more than 140 bonds in 2022, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Overall, developers missed payments on a combined $50 billion in domestic and global debt based on issuance amount.
All of that is about to go into reverse.
In the meantime, however, China Evergrande Group, once the country’s biggest developer and a poster child for the property crackdown, was labeled a defaulter in December 2021 after it missed payments on several bonds. Others followed suit, including Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. and Sunac China Holdings. The defaults crushed what was once the most active and lucrative high-yield bond market in the world.
Fears of further contagion meantime weakened consumer confidence and roiled global investors who had long assumed the government would bail out the real estate titans. The crisis spooked buyers, driving home sales down by the most in at least two decades, while home prices declined for 15 straight months.
But now, very suddenly and unexpectedly, after almost two years of housing market pain Beijing is changing its stance. Under the new proposal, China will ease restrictions on debt growth for developers depending on how many red lines they meet. According to Bloomberg sources, companies that meet all three thresholds will no longer have borrowing caps and can use letter of guarantees from banks to pay land purchase deposits.
To be sure there had been vocal opposition to China’s credit crackdown: as recently as last month, the head of a leading Chinese think tank had signaled Beijing needed to rethink what he called the mistaken “three red lines.”
“Using such harsh policies toward the sector was a total mistake,” said Yao Yang, dean of the National School of Development at Peking University, in an interview. “We had companies whose business was more or less healthy, but because of the “three red lines,” their business became a problem.”
As Bloomberg also notes, the policy reversal comes on the heels of a slew of directives aimed at reviving the housing sector, which accounts for as much as 70% of household assets in some parts of the country. The recent measures include:
Lower mortgage rates for first-home buyers if newly constructed house prices drop for three consecutive months
A nationwide cap on real estate commissions to boost demand
Allowing private equity funds to raise money for residential property developments
Pledging 200 billion yuan ($29 billion) in special loans to ensure stalled housing projects are delivered
A 16-point plan unveiled in November that ranged from addressing the liquidity crisis to loosening down-payment requirements for homebuyers
Officials have signaled further support. In an interview with Xinhua News Agency, China’s housing minister Ni Hong pledged further efforts to take a “sound approach” to address the risk of “capital chain breaks” among developers, and steer the industry onto a “high-quality development path” in 2023.
The various easing measures have sparked a sharp rally in property stocks and bonds, boosting confidence in the sector as some of the stronger firms like Country Garden Holdings Co. regain access to credit and equity markets to pay debt and resume construction.
That said, the sweeping measures have yet to arrest the slump in China’s housing sector, which has also been slowed by Covid lockdowns and more recently, a surge in virus cases. New home sales dropped 31% in December from a year earlier. Citigroup Inc. analysts including Griffin Chan expect sales to fall another 25% in 2023, as recovery will be constrained by reduced supply, and buyers’ expectations will take time to turn around.
Finally, what China’s reversal means for the rest of the world is that a tidal wave of new credit is about to be unleashed, and as a recent report in Economic Information Daily said, the amount of new credit China issues is likely to reach another record high this year, while interest rates for longer-term loans could decline further. In other words, prepare for a surge in Chinese Total Social Financing as Beijing finally ends its latest experiment with austerity and is finally set to unleash the biggest credit expansion in history.
And yes, it will be inflationary, which means that China – just like Putin before it – is about to control what happens in US capital markets because the last thing the Fed can do is stop hiking just as China is about to go into credit-funded overdrive.
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS/UK AFFAIRS//
GREECE/TURKEY
Turkey becoming belligerent again as they just fired upon a Greece patrol boat.
Turkey wants the Greece-Cyprus–Israel gas find
(zerohedge)
Shots Fired In Tense Greece-Turkey Patrol Boat Ramming Incident
FRIDAY, JAN 06, 2023 – 02:45 AM
Turkish media is confirming a major incident between a Turkish coast guard vessel and a Greek coast guard patrol boat on Thursday, describing that the Greek patrol was harassing Turkish fishing boats before Turkish coast guard authorities intervened. But Athens has countered that it was the Turkish side harassing Greek vessels.
Both sides are saying warning shots were fired and are attributing acts of aggression to the other side: “A Greek coast guard patrol boat’s crew fired warning shots early Thursday to deter a Turkish coast guard vessel that was trying to ram them in the eastern Aegean Sea, authorities in Athens said, as tensions between the two neighbors remain high,” the Associated Press reports.Illustrative: Turkish coast guard patrol boat, via AP
The Greek coast guard statement continued by saying “the crew fired warning shots in a secure sector and the Turkish coast guard vessel withdrew” toward the Turkey’s coast line, indicating the shots were not fired directly toward the opposing vessel, but in the air.
It further said the Turkish side “carried out dangerous maneuvers with the intention of ramming” the Greek vessel. Greece is saying the encounter occurred just off the Greek islet of Farmakonissi, describing that it was 1.5 nautical miles (or 1.7 miles) inside Greece’s territorial waters.
These types of ramming incidents have become more frequent over the past years, despite there being relative quiet throughout much of 2022 in comparison with past years.
However, there’s been persisting threats coming out of both sides, with speculation in Greek media that Erdogan could be planning war, and to take control of Greek territorial waters especially in the Aegean. Cyprus has also condemned frequent incursions into its waters as illegal.Farmakonissi, near the Turkish coast
Both Cyprus and Greece have long condemned what they say is Turkish fishing – as well as oil and gas exploration – inside their Exclusive Economic Zones. Both countries have repeatedly complained to the EU, with France in particular having offered military assistance to better monitor air and maritime incursions by Turkey’s military.
END
5.UKRAINE RUSSIA//MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
RUSSIA/UKRAINE
How low is low in valuing a life?
Robert Hryniak
11:07 AM (2 minutes ago)
to
It did not take Zelensky long, he is now resorted to impressing 14 and 15-year-old boys into military service to be killed on the front lines in the Donbas. After all the lies about real losses are beyond belief. And today, there is no difference in censorship between the Ukraine and North Korea. How can there be any justification for this corrupt regime? And what legacy is created by supporting this?
War is hard enough for adults to experience which is why so many suffer as a result of being in one after the fact. But with Children, They wake up at night dreaming over and over about the horror of those events for the rest of their lives. We have seen this in many a plagued nation from Iran to Vietnam to Africa to South America. In all cases these poor child soldiers suffer a lifetime of grieve. The drama they suffer will haunt them preventing a normal life. And that assumes they live. Their time in trench warfare is very limited when artillery rains. Their ability to cope is too fragile and should be a war crime.
It really seems we have trouble advancing our society on a progressive basis. As it seems forces of ill like the WEF seem to think that child sex with adults is just fine. Well, it is not and nor is the use of Child soldiers. This Azov mentality of making sure each family suffers loss to instill hatred of Russians is nuts. But then again they follow in the footsteps of Germany did with the Hitler Youth and it is no different in the Ukraine where summer camp is forced upon children to learn to hate and fight and kill.
A sad travesty soon to spread in Europe.
END
6/GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
Vaccine//Covid issues: Injuries
More Than 270 Sudden Deaths in US Athletes After Vaccination: Research Letter
By Marina Zhang The Epoch Times, New York Wednesday, January 4, 2023
Two hundred seventy-nine athletes and former athletes in the United States have died from cardiac arrests and other serious issues after taking COVID-19 vaccines, according to data from a recent peer-reviewed letter to the editor.
Authored by structural biologist Panagis Polykretis, and board-certified internist and cardiologist Dr. Peter McCullough, the letter’s cited data found that from 2021 to 2022, at least 1,616 cardiac arrests and other major medical issues have been globally documented in vaccinated athletes, with 1,114 of those being fatal.
The global data also showed that between 2021 to 2022, former and current American athletes made up 279 of the mortalities.
Athletes have a lower chance of cardiac arrest and sudden cardiac death as compared to nonathletes. A 2016 U.S. study calculated that nonathletes, compared to athletes, have a 29 times higher chance of sudden cardiac death.
One of the reasons is because “athletes are screened out for the common causes of sudden death on the playing field,” McCullough told The Epoch Times.
Players are screened for hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, which makes up almost 50 percent of sudden cardiac deaths in athletes, as well as other less common heart abnormalities.
The intensive screening is what makes competitive-level sports safer than everyday sporting activities, McCullough argued.
… Sudden Cardiac Deaths in Athletes Increased After Vaccination
McCullough pointed to a European study that tracked sudden cardiac deaths in European athletes over 38 years from 1966 to 2004. The study reported 1,101 sudden cardiac deaths over the interval, which Polykretis estimated would be around 29 deaths per year.
In the United States, it is estimated that 100 to 150 athletes die every year from sudden death.
The data cited in the letter, however, showed that in 2022 alone, over 190 deaths have been reported in current and former athletes.
This does not include the deaths of athletes with unknown vaccine statuses and those whose names did not make it into the media.
McCullough said looking at the data, “there’s no doubt,” that sudden cardiac deaths have increased following vaccinations.
However, since most of the sudden cardiac deaths in the media are of professional competitive players, McCullough added that collecting data from athletes in colleges, high schools, and other international leagues would give a more comprehensive picture.
He pointed to studies that have shown high myocarditis increases following COVID-19 vaccinations.
Prior to the pandemic, a 2017 study in Finland found that myocarditis rates were 19.5 per million for children 15 years of age and younger. Another 2012 Japanese study on pediatric admissions reported even lower rates of 2.6 cases per million in children aged 1 month to 17.
In the data released by the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) and Prevention in June 2021 (pdf), researchers expected myocarditis rates in vaccinated 12- to 17-year-old males to be 63 cases per million. By the following year, researchers at the CDC noted that myocarditis numbers in young males were exceeding the background rates (pdf).
A study by researchers from Kaiser Permanente (pdf), published in August 2022, estimated myocarditis would be 186 cases out of a million, after a second dose of vaccine in 12- to 17-year-old children. In males, this number was raised to 377 cases out of a million.
However, in prospective studies, one Thai study found that 2.3 percent of children who received two shots of mRNA doses had a heart injury. Another study evaluated 777 health care workers who were boosted and 2.8 percent reported a heart injury.
This means that if the results are extrapolated, around 25,000 people per million could suffer from heart injuries after two or three doses of COVID-19 vaccinations, according to McCullough.
“I’m very concerned,” said McCullough, “This is a public health problem. I think it is incumbent upon individuals to disclose the vaccine status.”
“We see the report of public figures or athletes one after another, dying suddenly, with no explanation. It’s incumbent upon the families, the medical staff, the doctors, and the reporters to disclose the vaccine status. They are investigational vaccines, and they are linked to death in peer-reviewed studies.”
A German autopsy study evaluated 25 people who died unexpectedly within 20 days of being vaccinated. Four of the individuals were found with myocarditis without any other disease signal that may have caused the unexpected death.
The authors concluded that their autopsy studies indicated that deaths were due to cardiac failure, and that myocarditis could be “a potentially lethal complication following mRNA-based anti-SARS-CoV-2 vaccination.”
It should also be noted that myocarditis events have also been reported in unvaccinated COVID-19 patients in 2020, and studies have shown that the virus can cause heart damage. But it is debatable if the heart injuries patients experience are caused by myocarditis or some other reasons.
A study published in April 2022 found that increases in myocarditis and pericarditis are statistically insignificant among unvaccinated individuals after COVID infection. The researchers evaluated around 197,000 unvaccinated patients, and there were 9 and 11 cases of myocarditis and pericarditis, respectively.
A French study that tracked cardiac arrests in athletes pre-pandemic from 2005 to 2018 also found that the rate of cardiac arrests in sports has remained constant, while survivability of these events has increased due to help from bystanders.
-END-
end
GLOBAL ISSUES;//
Samsung Profits Plunge 69% As Global Chip Demand In ‘Full-Fledged Ice Age’
FRIDAY, JAN 06, 2023 – 12:21 PM
The world’s largest memory chipmaker recorded an operating profit decline of 69% for the three months that ended in December — the worst drop in nearly a decade — as the semiconductor supply glut worsens.
Preliminary numbers released by Samsung showed the company’s operating profit declined to 4.3 trillion won ($3.4 billion) last quarter, missing the average analyst estimate of 6.7 trillion won ($5.3 billion). Sales fell to 70 trillion won ($55 billion) in the quarter, down 8.6% over the same period a year ago. The company is expected to publish a full financial statement with net income and updates on divisional performance at the end of the month.
“Amid continued external uncertainties, including a potential global economic downturn, overall earnings decreased sharply quarter on quarter as we saw a significant drop in the memory business results due to lackluster demand and weaker sales of smartphones,” the company said in a statement.
Readers have been well informed about South Korea’s largest company grappling with dismal memory chip demand. We cited the Korea Economic Daily in September that warned about Samsung’s troubles and how the “semiconductor industry has entered a full-fledged ice age.”
“The decline in 4Q demand was greater than expected as customers adjusted inventories in their effort to further tighten finances,” Samsung said in its statement, adding significant price declines in memory chips and slumping smartphone sales were due to “weak demand resulting from prolonged macro issues.”
And those macroeconomic headwinds Samsung might be talking about could be the global economy sliding into recession. Earlier this week, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned about global recession risks on CBS’s ‘Face the Nation.’
South Korea’s exports of memory chips are in a down-cycle, indicating a worsening slump in tech demand critical to global economic growth.
Despite the bad news, though mostly known, shares of Samsung Electronics trading on Korean exchanges rose 1.4% Friday — holding above the 100-day moving average.
Here’s what Wall Street analysts had to say about Samsung (list courtesy of Bloomberg):
CLSA Securities Korea (Sanjeev Rana)
“Shares are rising because really bad numbers from Samsung raise the likelihood of the company taking some action to control memory supply in the form of capex or production cut”
“Samsung has been adamant that it has no plans to cut capex or supply but a fast deterioration in the demand and its deteriorating profitability means that the management might be forced to consider the unthinkable, i.e. memory production cuts”
Other memory chip suppliers from Micron to Kioxia and SK Hynix have already announced reduction in either capex or output; if Samsung joins, it will become clear that the industry supply growth will tighten, leading to a better demand supply balance later this year
Midas International Asset Management (Shin Jin-Ho)
In the past when earnings were bad, the shares began to rebound after Samsung’s comments on output adjustment
So investors are buying on the earnings shock, as expectations for output cut increase after earnings miss
Bullish on Samsung stock price in the short term
Bloomberg Intelligence (Masahiro Wakasugi)
Samsung’s 1Q profit could stay low after its 4Q preliminary results came in 35% below consensus
The NAND chip division may have posted a loss in 4Q due to severe price erosion while DRAM generated profit
Earnings recovery might be slow in 2023 on declining chip prices despite demand recovery in 2Q or 3Q
4 of 25 (16%) of those who “died suddenly” within 20 days of recent vaccination had myocarditis from the vaccination (with other causes of death ruled out); COVID-19 vaccine-induced myocarditis
First, this young man is fighting for his life. We grieve, we support, and pray. We give privacy too. We pray hard that God grants him favor and mercy.
Yet there is nothing wrong with asking questions. Is this COVID-19 vaccine related? Did Damar Hamlin suffer a vaccine induced cardiac arrest? The NFL and family must let the nation and players know especially if he had myocarditis (known), given the risk now to others if indeed this is vaccine linked. This is about saving lives.
Researchers reported (I have covered this paper prior):
“Standardized autopsies were performed on 25 persons who had died unexpectedly and within 20 days after anti-SARS-CoV-2 vaccination. In four patients who received a mRNA vaccination (16%), we identified acute (epi-)myocarditis without detection of another significant disease or health constellation that may have caused an unexpected death”.
How many NFL players, as well as other high elite, high-contact sport athletes have ‘silent’ myocarditis (with myocardial scarring) that could manifest under adrenaline surges, with cardiac arrest?
See here that the NFL worked very closely with the CDC etc. on pushing these COVID gene injections:
Bill Clinton said famously in his election against POTUS George Bush Sr.: “It’s the economy, stupid, it’s the economy!” Dr. Paul Elias Alexander is saying: “It’s the vaccine, stupid, it’s the vaccine!” Check out TWC at: TWC.health (url: https://www.twc.health/en-ca…
Who protects these children and more to die to come? In USA, in Canada, in UK? Who? This COVID mRNA/DNA gene injection has been shown to be harmful & deadly but we can’t talk about it? NO! I will!
A four-year-old in my grandson’s nursery school in upstate NY died “suddenly and unexpectedly,” her obituary said, the day after Christmas. No one is even asking the question of her vaccination status.
Will the Canadian government, PM Trudeau personally get these deaths looked into? Will Doug Ford, the Premier of Ontario, address these atypical age-inappropriate deaths and have them looked into, including vaccine status to see if the COVID vaccine is placing otherwise healthy children at risk? What if indeed the deaths are COVID vaccine induced? Would you not want to know as Canadian parents? US parents? Will someone stand for the children? Will the other Premiers stand up for the children and examine these? What about the 100 Canadian doctors who have died suddenly?
The NFL’s COVID-19 vaccination rate as of January 13 is as follows: Nearly 95% of NFL players are vaccinated; nearly 100% of NFL personnel are vaccinated; DO NOT disregard possible myocarditis
Listen to this succinct interview with sage input from McCullough; recently looked into cardiac arrests in European sports leagues & found that they have significantly gone up since the COVID vaccine
suggest that a hyper-catecholaminergic state is the critical trigger of rare cases of myocarditis due to components from SARS-CoV-2, potentially increasing sudden deaths among elite male athletes
First, I say again, no player should take the field until the NFL and similar sport franchises (especially for high-impact sports) put in immediate policies on screening for cardiac issues, especially myocarditis.
‘The present review aimed to evaluate whether there is a justification to hypothesize that catecholamines in a “hyper-catecholaminergic” state are the key trigger of SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine-induced myocarditis and related outcomes and whether similar risks are also present following COVID-19 infection.
The epidemiological, autopsy, molecular, and physiological findings unanimously and strongly suggest that a hyper-catecholaminergic state is the critical trigger of the rare cases of myocarditis due to components from SARS-CoV-2, potentially increasing sudden deaths among elite male athletes.’
In simple, what this study is saying is that if you had vaccine induced myocarditis (scarring to the myocardium), then with activity that could cause a surge of catecholamines e.g. dopamine, epinephrine (adrenaline) etc. such as physical exertion, contact sports, and even waking from sleep (lifts breathing, heart rate etc.), you could be in medical trouble. In other words, the chemical surge (adrenaline rush) onto a scarred myocarditis damaged heart, can put enough stress on the heart and cause possible cardiac arrest (death).
We are arguing to not rule this out as a possibility in DAMAR Hamlin’s cardiac arrest.
I am hoping that the medical community, that the NFL, that the media will look at this study also as they try to mislead us as to what we saw with regards to Buffalo Bill’s player DAMAR Hamlin and the on field cardiac arrest. As they try to disregard the possible role of the COVID gene injection in causing his cardiac arrest. NFL Player’s association (NFLPA) is critical here in order to protect their clients/players. Hope they are seeing these studies. We know the CDC and drug makers courted and aggressively pushed the NFL etc. to vaccinate its players:
Do you think they will read this study? It has been out for a bit. I don’t. They do not seem to care. I wonder why. Is it pure power, control, or is it really money? What is it? How many more must drop on the field for the media and the medical community to ask the right questions and demand investigations? At the very least assess the real safety profile of these COVID gene injections. How many more must die Dr. Fauci? Consider the best among us, our police, our military, consider how many may be vaccine injured after forced to take this via mandates, under threat of law to simply put bread on the table. Some of us who have questioned all the wrongs in COVID, from response to the vaccine, simply want to know. Should proper surveillance of vaccine injury, autopsies etc. not be done? Why is this vaccine so different?
If one has ‘SILENT’ myocarditis (unknown) & plays contact sports, then sudden cardiac arrest & death is very likely; it is imperative we know if DAMAR had myocarditis undiagnosed & if due to COVID jab
The 2 cases in this case series are very instructive and it is my hope that the medical community reads this paper. Please share this paper with your local doctors.
This paper was shared by Dr. Ramin Oskoui, Washington, Foxhall cardiologist, as he sought to educate us so that the best decisions are made. See my prior substack, this is a critical paper that the NFL and all players must read. I am hoping that medical doctors would read this paper and inform their decision-making. The research and science is out there. If they would care to inform themselves. Do they want to inform themselves?
First, I say again, no player should take the field until the NFL and similar sport franchises (especially for high-impact sports) put in immediate policies on screening for cardiac issues, especially myocarditis. Dr. Oskoui as is Dr. Verma, are strong on the need for screening to protect players (by the league and players themselves given the questions as to the role of the COVID gene injection). Dr. Milhoan recommends that such screening must include Cardiac MRI with Gadolinium (contrast).
‘The second patient is a 22-year-old professional rugby player with no known notable history. During a match, a direct blow to the chest wall was followed by a cardiac arrest. A ventricular fibrillation was cardioverted to pulseless electrical activity. Patient died despite cardiopulmonary resuscitation. An autopsy identified a myocardial sequela of fibrosis with no acute inflammatory re-modelling compatible with a previous myocarditis.’
The COVID-19 “Vaccines” Are Weapons Developed by the U.S. Military
January 5, 2023 7:53 pm
With more of the American public waking up to the fact that the COVID-19 shots are linked to the epidemic of “sudden deaths,” these rushed-to-market emergency use authorized (EUA) “vaccines” are gaining more scrutiny by many in the Alternative Media, and there is now ample evidence that the U.S. Department of Defense has been behind the funding and development of these shots from the beginning. First referred to as the “War Against the Virus” by President Donald Trump in 2020, it is obvious now that this was a planned military operation all along, and the military operation that released federal funding to fast-track these weapons of mass destruction that are called “vaccines,” was also given a military name: Operation Warp Speed. The public was told these COVID “vaccines” were “safe and effective” without qualification even though they were not fully approved. Why was the public not advised that the normal standards of quality, safety and efficacy were not applied to the development and testing of these vaccines? Why was this kept secret? Why are governments around the world planning to make further significant investments in this unsafe vaccine technology? Will these national security arrangements still be in place for future vaccines and other pharmaceutical products? The fate of humanity and all future generations is literally at a critical tipping point.
USDA Grants License for First-ever Vaccine for Bees – Be Careful Where you Source Your Honey & Almonds!
January 5, 2023 10:19 pm
It’s becoming more and more obvious that the U.S. Government’s answers for almost all health issues now are new vaccines. Dalan Animal Health announced this week that the U.S. Department of Agriculture granted them a conditional license for the first-ever vaccine for bees. “Our vaccine is a breakthrough in protecting honeybees,” Dalan CEO Dr. Annette Kleiser said in a statement, suggesting it might “change how we care for insects, impacting food production on a global scale.” California accounts for almost half of all the US honeybee colonies, due to the high demand of the almond industry. Almond plantations in the state’s central valley provide an estimated 80% of the world’s supply, and require up to 30,000 colonies to be shipped there by truck every year during pollination season. The concentration has a downside, as bees can get poisoned by pesticides or catch infections from other swarms, requiring apiaries to destroy millions of insects rather than sending them back. Honey is one of nature’s most perfect and beneficial foods. The documented research on the incredible health benefits of honey is truly astounding. If you type in the search term “honey” in the National Library of Medicine on the NIH Government website, you will get almost 16,000 results from peer-reviewed medical journals. It is the ONLY sweetener on the market that you can purchase that is a complete, whole food, as opposed to granulated sugar which is an extract from either a grass (sugar cane), or from beets (sugar beets). But even before this license by the USDA to allow beekeepers to vaccinate their bees, almost all of the honey sold in North America has been contaminated with the herbicide glyphosate, from RoundUp. My store, Healthy Traditions, is one of the few places one can purchase raw honey that is harvested in the Chilean Andes Mountains and Rain Forests, and tests clean for pesticides and herbicides.
Buffalo Bills Teammate Gives USA Great News: “Damar Hamlin is holding hands with his family and is awake”Buffalo Bills cornerback Kaiir Elam broke his silence to give a hopeful update on teammate Demar Hamlin. Elam said the second-year pro is “awake and showing more signs of improvement.” Elam said on social media: “Our boy is doing better, awake and showing more signs of improvement. Thank you God. Keep the prayers coming please. All love 3!” NFL reporter …READ MORE
