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HomeJAN 9/2023: GOLD CLOSED UP $8.60 TO $1873.00//SILVER HOWEVER FELL 9 CENTS...
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JAN 9/2023: GOLD CLOSED UP $8.60 TO $1873.00//SILVER HOWEVER FELL 9 CENTS TO $23.75//PLATINUM CONTINUES TO GAIN ON PALLADIUM: TODAY PLATINUM UP $25.35 TO $1089.55 WITH PALLADIUM DOWN $30.15 TO $1780.35//COVID UPDATES: COVID CASES IN CHINA WITH HENAN PROVINCE AT A 90% INFECTION RATE (90 MILLION HIT)//IMPORTANT STUDY ON HOW IVERMECTIN DEFEATS THE COVID VIRUS AS WELL AS THE HARM FROM VACCINES//DR PAUL ALEXANDER//VACCINE IMPACT//SLAY NEWS//RUSSIA VS UKRAINE UPDATES//IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES TONIGHT: PEPE ESCOBAR (TWO) AND TOM LUONGO//NEW YORK CITY NURSES GO ON STRIKE CREATING HAVOC FOR THE CITY’S HEALTH CARE//GOLDMAN SACHS TO LAYOFF THOUSANDS//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

Date:

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SORRY FOR BEING LATE: HAD TO TAKE MY WIFE TO THE DENTIST

GOLD PRICE CLOSED: UP $8.60 at $1873,00

SILVER PRICE CLOSED: DOWN $0.09  to $23.75

Access prices: closes : 4: 15 PM

Gold ACCESS CLOSE 1872.80

Silver ACCESS CLOSE: 23.67

Bitcoin morning price:, 17,252 UP 286 DOLLARS   

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $17,234 UP  268  dollars

Platinum price closing  $1089.55 UP $25.35

Palladium price; closing 1789.55 DOWN $30.15

END

Due to the huge rise in the dollar, we must look at gold and silver in currencies other than the dollar to understand where we are heading

I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros/4: 15 PM ACCESS

CANADIAN GOLD: $2508.00 UP $3.10 CDN dollars per oz

BRITISH GOLD: 1537.07 DOWN 6,15 pounds per oz

EURO GOLD: 1744,84 DOWN 7.33  euros per oz

EXCHANGE: COMEX

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JANUARY 2023 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,864.200000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 01/06/2023 DELIVERY DATE: 01/10/2023
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED


118 C MACQUARIE FUT 7
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 1
661 C JP MORGAN 1
661 H JP MORGAN 9
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 1
737 C ADVANTAGE 6 7
800 C MAREX SPEC 3 2
905 C ADM 1


TOTAL: 19 19

JPM received 1/19 contracts  (stopped)

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GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR JAN/2023. CONTRACT:   19 NOTICES FOR 1900  OZ  or  0.0590 TONNES

total notices so far: 743 contracts for 74300 oz (2.311 tonnes)

 

SILVER NOTICES: 3 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 15,000 OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month  815 for 4,075,000  oz



END

GLD

WITH GOLD UP $8.60

INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES FROM THE GLD//

INVENTORY RESTS AT 915/33 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS

AT THE SLV// :/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY: 509.65 MILLION OZ (THIS IS ALSO A CRIME SCENE@!!!!

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE


SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 1405 CONTRACTS TO 132,541 AND CLOSER TO  THE  RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR STRONG  $0.54 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON FRIDAY.  OUR SHORTERS/HFT WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.54 AND WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING SOME SPEC LONGS, AS WE HAD A HUGE GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1651 CONTRACTS. AS WELL WE HAD A ZERO OZ OF AN EXCHANGE FOR RISK TRANSFER ( 0 CONTRACTS).  WE HAD CONSIDERABLE SPEC SHORT COVERINGS .  WE ALSO  HAD ZERO NEW SHORT ADDITIONS WITH THE HUGE GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER. // OUR  BANKERS CONTINUE TO BE PURCHASERS OF NET COMEX LONGS. BUT THEY ALSO SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT CONTRACTS>>> STRONG  INCREASE OF NEWBIE SPEC LONGS 

WE  MUST HAVE HAD: 
A SMALL  ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) AN  INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT  4,055. MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE. JUMP  OF 10,000 OZ//NEW STANDING 4.170 MILLION OZ //  V)   HUGE SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/ SMALL EFP ISSUANCE/

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL  +4

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS JAN. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF JAN: 

TOTAL CONTRACTS for 5 days, total 3083 contracts:   OR 15.42  MILLION OZ PER DAY. (617 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 15.42 MILLION OZ

.

LAST 17 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ 

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE 

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ 

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ 

SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL

OCT.  29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL

NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL

DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL

JAN 2023///   15.42 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1405 WITH OUR STRONG  $0.54 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// FRIDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A SMALL  SIZED EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 250 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR MAR AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JAN OF  4.055 MILLION  OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 10,000 /  //NEW STANDING INCREASES TO 4.170 MILLION OZ + EFR 2.5 MILLION = 6.670 MILLION OZ.  .. WE HAVE A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 1655 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 8.275 MILLION  OZ.. THE SILVER SHORTS ARE NOW TRAPPED AS THEY ARE HAVING CONSIDERABLE DIFFICULTY IN COVERING THOSE SHORTS.

 WE HAD  3  NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR  15,000   OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE  BY A VERY STRONG SIZED 9765  CONTRACTS  TO 463,250 AND CLOSER TO  THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED 702  CONTRACTS.

.

THE STRONG SIZED INCREASE  IN COMEX OI (9765 CONTRACTS) CAME WITH OUR STRONG  $28.85 GAIN IN PRICE. WE ALSO HAD A SMALL INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR JAN. AT 2.1710 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 12 CONTRACTS OR 1200 OZ  //(QUEUE JUMPING = EXERCISING LONDON BASED EFP’S ) (EFP is the transfer of  contracts immediately to London for potential gold deliveries originating from London). NEW STANDING 2.429 TONNES

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR HUGE $28.85 GAIN IN PRICE  WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A GIGANTIC SIZED GAIN OF 13,880 OI CONTRACTS (43.17 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A GOOD SIZED 4115 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 463,250

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A GIGANTIC SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 13,880 CONTRACTS  WITH 9765 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 4115 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 13,880 CONTRACTS OR 43.17 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A GOOD SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (4115 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (9765) TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 13,880 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) COSIDERABLE  SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS  // CONTINUED GOOD BANKER ADDITIONS BUT THEY ALSO SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY PAPER SHORT.  WE  HAD ZERO SHORT SPEC ADDITIONS/// // HUGE  NEWBIE SPEC  ADDITIONS  ,2.) SMALL INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR JAN. AT 2.1710 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 1200 OZ /NEW STANDING 2.429 TONNES///3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION //.,4)   VERY STRONG SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN 5) GOOD ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY

JAN

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JAN :

14,563  CONTRACTS OR 1,456,300 OZ OR 45.29 TONNES 5 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2913 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 5 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES:45.29   TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2021, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  45.29/3550 x 100% TONNES  1,26% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 202

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN).. 

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE// 

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH:  409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247,44 TONNES FINAL// 

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES  FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL

OCT:  177.57  TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

NOV.  223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)

DEC:  185.59 tonnes // FINAL

JAN 2023:    45.29 TONNES INITIAL

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW  ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF FEB. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF BOTH GOLD (

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR BOTH GOLD:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (NOV), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, rose BY A HUGE SIZED 1405 CONTRACTS OI TO  132,541 AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  5 YEARS AGO.  

EFP ISSUANCE 250 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

MAR  250 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 250 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI GAIN  OF 1405  CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 250 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A HUGE GAIN OF 1655 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. 

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 8.275 MILLION OZ//

OCCURRED DESPITE OUR 54 CENT GAIN IN PRICE ….. OUR SPEC SHORTS HAVE NOWHERE TO HIDE!

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

end

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

end

5. Other gold/silver commentaries

6. Commodity commentaries//CORN

7/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)THURSDAY MORNING//WEDNESDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 18.45 PTS OR0.58%   //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 386,70 PTS OR 1.89%     /The Nikkei closed            //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.64%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP TO 6.7806//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP TO 6.7898//    /Oil UP TO 76.41 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 81.15   / Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY GREEN         ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 9765 CONTRACTS UP TO 463,250 WITH OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF $28.85

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON-ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JAN…  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A GOOD  SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 4115 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;: ,  . 0 FEB: 4115 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  4115   CONTRACTS 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A GIGANTIC SIZED  TOTAL OF 13,880 CONTRACTS IN THAT 4115 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A STRONG SIZED  COMEX OI GAIN OF 9765 CONTRACTS..AND  THIS GIGANTIC SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN  IN PRICE OF $28.85. WE ARE WITNESSING  ZERO SPEC SHORTS ADDITIONS TO THEIR SHORTFALL WITH  CONSIDERABLE SPEC SHORT LIQUIDATIONS.. BANKERS CONTINUE  AS NET BUYERS OF COMEX GOLD CONTRACTS AS THEY HAVE BEEN NET LONG FOR THE PAST FEW MONTHS.  WE ALSO HAD STRONG  NEWBIE SPECS ADDITIONS 

// WE HAVE A SMALL AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING Jan  (2.429)

TONNES),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL  YEAR  2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT.  38.1158 TONNES

OCT:  77.390 TONNES/ FINAL

NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL (TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR 591.535 TONNES)

Dec. 64.541 tonnes

JAN/2023: 2.429 tonnes

THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE $28.85)  //// AND WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY  SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A GIGANTIC GAIN OF 13,880 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES  //    WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI  OF 45.356 PAPER TONNES OF TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JAN. (2.1710 TONNES) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 1200 oz  OR .0373 TONNES…THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR RISE IN PRICE  TO THE TUNE OF $28.85.  

WE HAD – 702 CONTRACTS  COMEX TRADES REMOVED FROM OPEN INTEREST AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 13,880 CONTRACTS OR 1,388,000 OZ OR 43.17 TONNES

Estimated gold comex today 244,309// fair//

final gold volumes/yesterday  234,856/  fair

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR  JAN 2023 COMEX GOLD //JAN 9//

GoldOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz
 nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz 109,956.420 oz
JPMorgan
3420 kilobars
 




.

 








 









 
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oznil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
nil  oz
No of oz served (contracts) today19 notice(s)
1900 OZ
0.0591 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)  38 contracts 
  3800 oz
0.11819 TONNES

 
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month 743  notices
74300
2.3110 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this monthxxx oz

i)Dealer deposits: 0

total dealer deposit:  nil oz

No dealer withdrawals

Customer deposits: 0

total deposits: nil oz

 customer withdrawals: 1

i) Out of JPMorgan:  109,956.420 oz (3420 kilobars)

Total withdrawals: 109,956.420 oz

total in tonnes: 3.42  tonnes

Adjustments:0

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JANUARY.

For the front month of JANUARY we have an oi of 57 contracts having LOST 8  contracts

We had 20 notices served on Friday, so we gained 12 contracts or an additional 1200 oz will stand for delivery in this

very non active delivery month of January.  (queue jump) 

February gained  2262  contacts  to 361,072

March gained 170 contracts to stand at 519.

April gained 6303 contracts up to 66,140.

We had 19  notice(s) filed today for 1900 oz 

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and  4  notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to  19  contract(s) of which 0   notices were stopped (received) by  j.P. Morgan dealer and 1  notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JAN. /2022. contract month, 

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (743 x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (JAN. 57 CONTRACTS)  minus the number of notices served upon today  19 x 100 oz per contract equals 78,100 OZ  OR 2.429 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this    non active month of January. 

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JAN contract month:

No of notices filed so far (743 x 100 oz+   (57 OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (19} x 100 oz} which equals 78,100 oz standing OR 2.429 TONNES in this NON  active delivery month of JAN..

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING:  2.3919 TONNES  (A POOR STANDING//COMEX RUNNING OUT OF PHYSICAL TO SERVE UPON OUR LONGS.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

we had one adjustment of 110,631.591 oz Brinks

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 o

total pledged gold:  1,970,762.034 OZ   61.298 tonnes

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED:  22,880,069.080 OZ  

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD:11,171,497.6431 OZ     (347,46 tonnes)..dropping fast

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 11,708,571.427 OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 9,200,735 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 286,18 tonnes//rapidly declining 

END

SILVER/COMEX

JAN 9/2023//INITIAL JAN. SILVER CONTRACT

SilverOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers InventoryNIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory1,190,413.178 oz

Brinks
Manfra



























 










 
Deposits to the Dealer Inventorynil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory7074.218 oz
Delaware














 











 
No of oz served today (contracts)CONTRACT(S)  
 (15,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)19 contracts 
(95,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)815 contracts
 (4,075,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month


i)  0 
dealer deposit

total dealer deposits:  nil   oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals:  oz

We have 1 deposits into the customer account

i)Delaware:  7074.210 oz

Total deposits:  7074.210 oz 

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 152.772 million oz/299.430 million =51.020% of comex .//dropping fast

  Comex withdrawals: 2

i) Out of Brinks  588,963.510 oz

ii) Out of Manfra:  601,449.668 oz

Total withdrawals; 1,190,413.178 oz

adjustments: 2 dealer to customer

Brinks  5065.30 oz

ii) Loomis:  9899.100 oz

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 34.376 MILLION OZ (declining rapidly).TOTAL REG + ELIG. 299.434 MILLION OZ 

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR DEC

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF JAN/2023 OI: 22  CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 0  CONTRACT(S.). WE HAD 2 NOTICES

FILED ON FRIDAY SO  WE GAINED 2 CONTRACTS OR 10,000 OZ WERE  QUEUE JUMPED BY THE BANKERS TO OBTAIN SOME SILVER OVER HERE. 

FEB> GAINED 3 CONTRACTS TO 230 CONTRACTS

March GAINED 231 CONTRACTS UP TO 114,820 contracts

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 30 for  15,000 oz

Comex volumes// est. volume today  59,568//good  

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 64,635 contracts ( very good)

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JANUARY. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 815 x  5,000 oz = 4,075,000 oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JAN(22) and the number of notices served upon today 3 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the JAN./2023 contract month: 815 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of JAN (22 – number of notices served upon today (3) x 500 oz of silver standing for the JAN. contract month equates 4.170 million oz  + 2.5 MILLION OZ OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

Comex volumes:48,685// est. volume today//   fair

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 59,160 contracts ( good)

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS

JAN 9/WITH GOLD UP $ 8.60 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES FROM THE GLD//.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.33 TONNES

JAN 6/WITH GOLD UP $28.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.77 TONNES

JAN 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.05 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES FORM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.77 TONNES

JANUARY 4/WITH GOLD UP $32.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.64 TONNES

JAN 3/WITH GOLD UP $20.00 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:STRANGE: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES FORM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.64 TONNES

DEC 30/WITH GOLD UP $.80 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.51 TONNES

DEC 29//WITH GOLD UP $8.35 TODAY:; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.51 TONNES

DEC 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.80 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 5.50 TONNES INTO THE GLD..//INVENTORY REST S AT 918.51 TONNES

DEC 27/WITH GOLD UP $18.15 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.01 TONNES

DEC 23/WITH GOLD UP $19,15 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.88 TONNES/

DEC 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $29.35 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.88 TONNES

DEC 21/WITH GOLD FLAT TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.88 TONNES

DEC 20/WITH GOLD UP $27.05: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.73 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.14 TONNES

DEC 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.10: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD> A BIG WITHDRAWAL OF 3.47 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 910.41 TONNES

DEC 16/WITH GOLD UP $12.45: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.32 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.88 TONNES

DEC 15//WITH GOLD DOWN $31.00: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 911.56 TONNES

DEC 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.20: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.32 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.72 TONNES

DEC 13/WITH GOLD UP $32.75: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.32 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 910.41

DEC 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.60: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.09 TONNES

DEC 9/WITH GOLD UP $8.90//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.09 TONNES

Dec 8/WITH GOLD UP $4.05, OVER THE PAST 3 WEEKS WE LOST 2.04 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.09 TONNES

NOV 14/WITH GOLD UP $7.30: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 910.12 TONNES

NOV 11/WITH GOLD UP $15.25//BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.19 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 911.57 TONNES

NOV 10/WITH GOLD UP $40.75: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.38 TONNES

NOV 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00:  BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.89 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.38 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 915.33  TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

JAN 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.65 MILLION OZ//

JAN 6/WITH SILVER UP 54 CENTS TODAY;BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 4.20 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.65 MILLION OZ//

JAN 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 50 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.10 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 505.45 MILLION OZ//

JAN 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 26 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.3 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 506.55 MILLION OZ/

JAN 3/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: STRANGE: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.2 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 507.85 MILLION OZ/

DEC 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.050 MILLION OZ

DEC 29/ WITH SILVER UP $0.63 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.050 MILLION OZ

DEC 28//WITH SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.715 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///..INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.050 MILLION OZ

DEC 27/WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/A WITHDRAWAL OF 550,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 507.350 MILLION OZ//

DEC 23/WITH SILVER UP 29 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT507.900 MILLION O//

DEC 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 53 CENTS TODAY;NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 507.90 MILLION OZ//

DEC 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.0 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 507.90 MILLION OZ//

DEC 20/WITH SILVER UP 105 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:: A DEPOSIT OF 700,000 OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.90 MILLION OZ//

DEC 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.05 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.20 MILLION OZ//

DEC 16/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.85 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 508.15 MILLION OZ//

DEC 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 78 CENTS: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF EXACTLY 2.00 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 510.000 MILLION OZ

DEC 14/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.7 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 512.000 MILLION OZ//

DEC 13/WITH SILVER UP 59 CENTS: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 600,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 513.900 MILLION OZ//

DEC 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 33 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.500 MILLION OZ//

DEC 9/WITH SILVER RISING 77 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.2 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.500 MILLION OZ.

DEC 8/WITH SILVER RISING 34 CENTS TODAY: OVER THE PAST 3 WEEKS, WE HAVE GAINED A STRONG: 44.777 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 516.700 MILION OZ.

NOV 14/WITH SILVER UP 41 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.923 MILLION OZ//

NOV 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 553,000 OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.923 MILLION OZ//

NOV 10/WITH SILVER UP 39 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 368,000 OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.476 MILLION OZ//

NOV 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/; A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.821 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.108 MILLION OZ//

CLOSING INVENTORY 509.65 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1:Peter Schiff 

end

2 Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz//Rickards:

James Rickards…

3. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries//

New York Sun: Waiting for Republicans to address the money issue

Submitted by admin on Fri, 2023-01-06 16:08Section: Daily Dispatches

From the New York Sun
Friday, January 6, 2023

https://www.nysun.com/article/waiting-for-mccarthys-gop

The New York Sun favors elevating Kevin McCarthy to be speaker of the House but neither he nor anyone else in the majority has said what we would like to hear. We agree with our columnist Larry Kudlow in the view that Mr. McCarthy would be a good speaker. We’re less confident that the Republican majority in the House is going to address the most important issue before the new Congress: monetary reform.

Our concern is not with the issues on which the GOP congresspersons are wrestling — rules for the caucus and the like. We want to know, say, what rules the Congress is going to insist on for the Federal Reserve as it exercises the monetary powers that under the Constitution are granted to Congress. We realize the House rebels are in an untenable position. Yet what is the answer of the majority to the issues they raise?

These are questions like, say, the debt ceiling, the failures of the Federal Reserve, and inflationary overspending. Why hasn’t the leading candidate for speaker addressed those strategic questions? The Biden economy — inflation, overspending, over-regulation, debt forgiveness — is by far the biggest issue for Americans. This cataract of error is the fruit of the Age of Fiat Money. Yet no one in the Republican Party articulates a strategic vision.

The House rebels fear that the GOP under Mr. McCarthy will follow the advice of the longtime speaker, Sam Rayburn — “to get along, go along” — and take an accommodating posture to President Biden and the Democrats. “The country can’t afford to continue what we’ve always done to get what we’ve always gotten,” says one of the Republican rebels, Rep. Robert Good of Virginia.

The New York Times derides these rebels as “hard-right conservatives” on a “deeply ideological drive” and describes their aim as being “to drastically limit the size, scope, and reach of the federal government,” while also changing “the way Congress works to make it easier to do so.” Sounds about right. The Times complains that the rebels also “have pressed for a balanced federal budget — one that would not permit any deficit spending.”

The Sun is opposed to laws requiring a balanced budget. We are also, though, in the camp that sees federal overspending, such as is exemplified by President Biden and the outgoing Congress, as the principal source of the inflation now engulfing the country. And we see the Federal Reserve as the primary enabler of the use of borrowing that makes it possible for Congress to overspend as it has been doing.

We’d like to see the Republican majority address this strategically.  The GOP won the House because voters wanted something different than what Speaker Pelosi and her left-wing camarilla had to offer. The rebels are asking if Mr. McCarthy intends merely to offer a diluted version of the Democrats’ roadmap — going along with continued budget deficits, a swelling national debt, and a failure to reform or even audit the Federal Reserve.

Mr. McCarthy’s failure to placate the House rebels — whose political idealism could admittedly make it more difficult to pass legislation — suggests to us a missed opportunity. The $1.7 trillion omnibus spending bill passed in the lame-duck session suggests how easily fiscal and economic recklessness can masquerade as bipartisanship, earning praise from Democrats and the liberal press while paving the way for more harmful inflation.

Mr. McCarthy, to his credit, lobbied GOP senators to oppose that measure — to no avail. So if he is serious about taking up the cause of economic freedom, small government, and fiscal rigor, and advocating for the causes cherished by the House rebels, it would behoove him to win them over not with picayune procedural changes but with an agenda in line with their drive to scale back the scope of the government.

end

China extends gold buying with fresh flows to central bank

See article below:

Submitted by admin on Sat, 2023-01-07 11:23Section: Daily Dispatches

By Sing Yee Ong
Bloomberg News
Friday, January 6, 2023

China reported an increase in its gold reserves for a second straight month, topping up holdings again after its first reported purchase in more than three years.

The People’s Bank of China raised its holdings by 30 tons in December, according to data on its website today. This follows November’s addition of 32 tons, and brings the nation’s holdings to a total of 2,010 tons. 

Central bank purchases of bullion hit a record in the third quarter of last year at almost 400 tons, with only a quarter going to publicly identified institutions, according to the World Gold Council’s demand trends report. 

China’s disclosure of its gold buying sheds some light on the identity of these mystery buyers. Market watchers speculate Russia could be another purchaser. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-07/china-extends-gold-buying-with-fresh-flows-to-central-bank

/4.  OTHER PHYSICAL SILVER/GOLD COMMENTARIES

China now openly buys gold recording a 30 tonne purchase in December

(zerohedge)

China Extends Aggressive Gold Buying With Another 30 Tons Purchase In December

SUNDAY, JAN 08, 2023 – 02:00 PM

One week ago, in his latest – and arguably most important note of 2022 – Credit Suisse repo guru Zoltan Pozsar discussed the two key anchors of the Bretton Woods III regime he believes will replace the world in which the dollar is a reserve currency: i) commodity encumbrance (i.e., rehypothecation) and ii) the Petroyuan, and – intertwined in between them – China’s aggressive accumulation of gold.

This was hardly a coincidence: just a few weeks earlier, we learned that for the first time in years, China had bought 32 tons of gold in the month of November, its first official purchase since September 2918 (even as it had unofficially been buying up much more gold over the past three years). We added the following:

Back in March we pointed out that according to JPMorgan, “while the world is short on commodities, China is not given they have started stockpiling commodities since 2019 and currently hold 80% of global copper inventories, 70% of corn, 51% of wheat, 46% of soybeans, 70% of crude oil, and over 20% of global aluminum inventories.” And now, China is aggressively stockpiling every ounce of physical gold it can get its hands on. Almost as if China is actively preparing for war.

And while our conclusion appears spot on, especially in light of Zoltan’s latest just published note which we will discuss shortly, what is just as notable is that for the second month in a row, China reported an increase in its gold reserves topping up holdings again after its first reported purchase in more than three years.

The People’s Bank of China raised its holdings by 30 tons in December, according to data on its website on Saturday. This follows November’s addition of 32 tons, which was the country’s first reported inflow since September 2019. Prior to that, the last previous increase was in October 2016. The recent official purchases bring the nation’s holdings to a total of 2,010 tons.

JAN 9/2023: GOLD CLOSED UP .60 TO 73.00//SILVER HOWEVER FELL 9 CENTS TO .75//PLATINUM CONTINUES TO GAIN ON PALLADIUM:  TODAY PLATINUM UP .35 TO 89.55 WITH PALLADIUM DOWN .15 TO 80.35//COVID UPDATES:  COVID CASES IN CHINA WITH HENAN PROVINCE AT A 90% INFECTION RATE  (90 MILLION HIT)//IMPORTANT STUDY ON HOW IVERMECTIN DEFEATS THE COVID VIRUS AS WELL AS THE HARM FROM VACCINES//DR PAUL ALEXANDER//VACCINE IMPACT//SLAY NEWS//RUSSIA VS UKRAINE UPDATES//IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES TONIGHT: PEPE ESCOBAR (TWO) AND TOM LUONGO//NEW YORK CITY NURSES GO ON STRIKE CREATING HAVOC FOR THE CITY’S HEALTH CARE//GOLDMAN SACHS TO LAYOFF THOUSANDS//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

As reported last month, central bank purchases of bullion hit a record in the third quarter of last year at almost 400 tons, with only a quarter going to publicly identified institutions, according to the World Gold Council’s demand trends report. Since then, China’s disclosure of its gold buying confirms that the identity of the no-longer mystery buyer; and in keeping with Pozsar’s thesis, market watchers speculate that Russia, whose gold holdings are near all time highs…

… could be another purchaser.

Additionally, China’s end-December foreign currency reserves rose $10.2 billion from the previous month, and totaled $3.13 trillion at the end of last month, People’s Bank of China data showed on Saturday. Asian nations have been replenishing their war chests amid waning dollar strength.

With its aggressive December purchases, China was likely once again the biggest buyer of the yellow metal in the open market: according to the World Gold Council, central banks bought a further 50 tonnes on a net basis during the month, a 47% increase from October’s (revised) 34t.1 Of this net total, three central banks accounted for gross buying of 55t, while two largely contributed to gross sales of 5t , showing the strength of demand.

The Central Bank of Türkiye continued to buy gold in November, adding a further 19t to its official (central bank + Treasury) reserves.2 This lifts its YTD net purchases of gold to 123t – the largest reported by any country – and its official gold reserves to 517t (27% of total reserves). The Central Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic added to its gold reserves for the first time this year, buying 3t in November to increase its total gold reserves to 16t (+61% YTD).  

On the sales side, the National Bank of Kazakhstan and the Central Bank of Uzbekistan were the largest sellers. Kazakhstan reduced its gold reserves by around 4t to 380t (-5% YTD), while Uzbekistan’s gold reserves fell by almost 2t to 397t, 10% higher YTD. We have noted previously that it is not uncommon for central banks who purchase gold from domestic sources – as both Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan do – to also be frequent sellers of gold.

The record purchases of gold by central banks has been one of the highlights of the gold market in 2022, having bought a net 673t between Q1 and Q3.  Looking ahead to the full year picture, it’s likely  that central banks accumulated a multi-decade high level of gold in 2022, a number which will be revealed officially in mid-January.

5. Commodity commentaries/

END

6/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC

END

1. YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS//MONDAY MORNING.7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: UP TO  6.7806

OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.7898

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 18.95 PTS OR  0.58%

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 396,70 PTS 1.89%  

2. Nikkei closed  

3. Europe stocks   SO FAR:  ALL MOSTLY GREEN

USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO  103,32 Euro RISES TO 106.91 UP 58 BASIS PTS

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.498!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 132.21/JAPANESE YEN RISING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10  YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   UP-//  OFF- SHORE: UP

3f Japan is to buy INFINITE  TRILLION YEN’S worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt. 

3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.2495%***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield FALLS to 4.264%*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RFALLS TO 3.322…** DANGEROUS//

3i Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO 4.444//

3j Gold at $1875.55//silver at: 23.95  7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 2  AND 41/100        roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 69.70//

3m oil into the 74 dollar handle for WTI and  81 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 132.21

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.9228– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9866 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.587% UP 2 BASIS PTS…GETTING DANGEROUS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.724% UP 3 BASIS PTS//

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18,78…

GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: 3.554 % UP 8 BASIS PTS

end

i.b  Overnight:  Newsquawk and Zero hedge:

 FIRST, ZEROHEDGE (PRE USA OPENING// MORNING

Futures Rise On China Reopening, End Of Tech Crackdown As Asia Enters Bull Market

MONDAY, JAN 09, 2023 – 08:05 AM

Futures extended their Friday post payrolls gain on the back of Chine reopening optimism coupled with speculation that China’s tech crackdown is finally ending – just as we speculated this weekend when reporting on Jack Ma’s ceding control of Ant Financial. S&P futures rose 0.4% as of 7:30 am ET while Nasdaq contracts 100 added 0.5%. And while European stocks were mostly in the green, the bulk of overnight action was in Asia where the Hang Seng Tech Index jumped 3.2% Monday, led by Alibaba Group after a top central bank official said the clampdown on the Internet sector was drawing to a close. The broader market also advanced, with a gauge of Chinese equities listed in Hong Kong rising 2%, helping push the MSCI Asia Index up 20% from its October low, setting it up for a bull market. The dollar weakened to a seven month low and oil rallied.

Among premarket movers, Bed Bath & Beyond shares surged as much as 75%, set to rally after losing nearly half of their value in the previous week on bankruptcy worries amid mounting losses, and ahead of the company’s earnings due Tuesday. Coinbase and Riot Platforms led cryptocurrency-exposed stocks higher in premarket trading as Bitcoin rallied to extend gains for a sixth consecutive session — its longest streak in nearly a year. Lululemon dropped after the athletic apparel maker forecast a weaker gross margin. Here are other notable premarket movers:

  • Oracle is upgraded to overweight from neutral at Piper Sandler as its cloud transformation takes hold. The brokerage also noted that fiscal 2024 might be a watershed year for the software company, where growth in operating profits and earnings per share could accelerate to more than 10%. Oracle shares are up 1.3%.
  • Piper Sandler upgrades Uber to overweight and cuts DoorDash to underweight, recommending a pair-trade between the two as it favors ride-hailing over delivery in 2023. Elsewhere, Jefferies starts DoorDash with an underperform rating, with a buy on Uber. Uber shares rose 2.3%. Dash shares down 4.2%.
  • Ally Financial upgraded to neutral from underweight at Piper Sandler, with headwinds seen as now priced into the stock. Shares rise 1.9%.
  • Credit Suisse says fertilizer prices are on a downward trajectory in a note double-downgrading Mosaic (MOS) to underperform. Shares fall 1.1%.
  • Elf Beauty is downgraded to hold from buy at Jefferies, with broker saying risk-reward is balanced for the cosmetics company against an uncertain macroeconomic backdrop. Shares fall 1.1%.
  • Ipsen shares drop after it agreed to acquire Albireo for $42/share in cash plus a contingent value right (CVR) of $10/share related to the U.S. FDA approval of Bylvay in biliary atresia. Albireo shares soar 93%.
  • Jefferies sees another year of uncertainty ahead for US bank stocks, in a note upgrading its ratings on Truist (TFC) and First Republic (FRC) and downgrading both Signature Bank (SBNY) and Regions Financial (RF). TFC falls 0.09%. FRC rises 1.2%. SBNY shares fall 0.4%. RF falls 1%.
  • KeyBanc trims its natural gas price estimates for 2023 following a relatively mild winter to date and cuts its ratings on Comstock Resources (CRK) and Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD). CRK shares rise 0.8%. PXD rises 1%.
  • There is a strong industry backdrop for Harmonic (HLIT), with greater competition in the broadband service market pushing cable multiple-system operators (MSOs) to invest aggressively, Jefferies writes in note that upgrades the stock to buy. Shares rise 1.8%.
  • Lanvin Group is rated neutral at Citi, which initiated coverage on the stock noting that the luxury fashion group has solid brands but clear evidence of a turnaround is required to merit a buy call. Shares rise 3.5%.

Markets closed last week solidly in the green, encouraged by Friday’s jobs report which showed wage growth slowing, lifting the S&P 500 2.3% to notch its first winning week in over a month. They face another test on Thursday with CPI data that will likely help determine the size of the Federal Reserve’s next interest-rate increase. After the easing in wage inflation, swaps contracts showed investors expect the policy rate to peak at under 5% this cycle, down from 5.06% just before Friday’s jobs report. While traders remain divided about the size of February’s hike, with 32 basis points of tightening priced in, it appears that a quarter-point move is seen as more likely than a half-point increase.

While pressure on the Fed to hike by 50 basis points on Feb. 1 has eased, “policy makers appear to be increasingly frustrated by market-pricing at odds with Fed signaling in terms of both the terminal funds rate and timing of initial rate cut,” BNP Paribas economists led by Carl Riccadonna wrote in a note to clients. “This could tilt their bias toward a more forceful response at the next meeting.”

And while market pessimism is still dominant, analysts at Wells Fargo said Friday’s gains may be more durable than some expect, being “driven by a pro-cyclical post-jobs report reaction — not by risk/short-covering.” This market action “probably creates some positive investor sentiment since long-only’s are making money and short-sellers are faring better than one might expect.”

On the other hand, Morgan Stanley strategists said US equities face much sharper declines than many pessimists expect with the specter of recession likely to compound their biggest annual slump since the global financial crisis. The bank’s equity strategist, Michael Wilson, long one of the most vocal bears on US stocks, said while investors are generally pessimistic about the outlook for economic growth, corporate profit estimates are still too high and the equity risk premium is at its lowest since the run-up to 2008. That suggests the S&P 500 could fall much lower than the 3,500 to 3,600 points the market is currently estimating in the event of a mild recession, he said. At the same time, US stocks have been lagging the rebound in European, Asian and emerging-market peers as American equities trade at a hefty valuation premium.

European markets also started the week amid a generally buoyant mood, as continental bourses opened higher, after posting the best week since March on optimism about China’s reopening, an easing energy crisis and signs of cooling inflation. Europe’s Stoxx 600 Index climbed 0.5%, touching the highest since mid-December with construction, technology and energy leading gains amid optimism over China’s demand for raw materials.  On the data front, euro zone unemployment was unchanged in November at 6.5% as expected. Here are some of Europe’s biggest movers:

  • UCB gains as much as 4.9%, the most in almost 11 months, after the Belgian biopharma company said its 2022 results should come in toward the high end of guidance
  • Geberit shares climb as much as 3.5% after Goldman Sachs raised its recommendation on the Swiss manufacturer to neutral from sell, citing reduced risk related to energy prices
  • BioArctic rises as much as 29% after Eisai and Biogen’s Alzheimer’s drug Leqembi (lecanemab-irmb) received accelerated approval from the FDA. The treatment originates from BioArctic
  • TGS gains as much as 15%, the most intraday since 2020, after a 4Q update that DNB said showed a strong beat on late sales and supportive management comments on order inflow
  • SAES Getters shares surge as much as 36%, the most on record, after SAES Group entered an agreement with Resonetics to sell its Nitinol production business for about $900m in cash
  • AstraZeneca falls after agreeing to buy US biotech CinCor Pharma for as much as $1.8 billion. Analysts say the acquisition is a good fit for the firm’s existing cardiovascular franchise
  • Fresnillo falls as much as 2.5% as RBC Capital Markets downgrades stock to sector perform, as it sees operational momentum widely priced in and expects limited growth in the pipeline
  • Frontier Developments shares fall as much as 42%, its biggest intraday decline on record, after the video-game firm said it no longer expects to meet FY23 consensus expectations
  • Ambea drops as much as 6.9%, the most since Dec. 23, after the Swedish elder care company saw its target price cut at DNB to SEK52 from SEK73 on continued headwinds due to inflation
  • Devolver Digital shares fall as much as 9.5%, dropping to a record low, after downgrading profit expectations for FY22 in a trading update. Goodbody called the update “disappointing.”

Earlier in the session, Asia’s benchmark stock index was on track to enter a bull market, as China’s reopening and a weakening dollar lure investors back to the region. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed as much as 1.9% on Monday, taking its advance from an Oct. 24 low to more than 20%. The Asian benchmark is up 3.7% so far in 2023, beating the S&P 500 Index by about two percentage points. That’s after they both slumped about 19% last year, their worst performance since 2008.

Gauges in Hong Kong, Taiwan and South Korea led gains in the session, while Japan was closed for a holiday. Strategists have predicted a better year for Asian equities after a dismal 2022, especially as stocks in China, which carry the second-highest weighting in the regional gauge after Japan, turned a corner in November following the nation’s shift away from stringent virus curbs. The bull market milestone comes after the MSCI Asia gauge tumbled nearly 40% from a peak in early 2021. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is on track to enter a bull market after surging more than 20% from its October low, boosted by Chinese stocks after the nation pivoted on its Covid strategy and offered more policy support for the economy.  

“The rally has been fast and furious, so it is only natural to expect some profit-taking,” said Charu Chanana, senior strategist at Saxo Capital Markets Pte. “There are also some risks to keep a tap on, such as BOJ’s hawkish shift and company earnings. But that being said, there is still room for Asian markets to outperform global peers in 2023.”

Australian stocks climbed for a fourth day as miners advanced. The S&P/ASX 200 index rose 0.6% to close at 7,151.30, capping four consecutive days of advances. The winning streak is the benchmark’s longest since Nov. 25. The gauge followed Wall Street shares higher after US economic data boosted optimism for slower Fed rate hikes. Miners and energy shares contributed the most to the Australian index’s move. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index rose 0.2% to 11,646.45.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell to its lowest level since June as the dollar weakened against all of its Group-of-10 peers apart from the yen. It pared the drop in European hours. NOK, NZD are best performers among G10’s.

  • The euro pared gains after rising to $1.07. Bunds and Italian bonds underperformed Treasuries, with the largest losses seen in the belly of curves, while money markets added to peak ECB rate wagers. Focus is also on the EU’s first bond sales of the year
  • The pound advanced, while gilts bear flattened. Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill comments are due later
  • Norway’s krone and the Australian dollar led G-10 gains, with the latter climbing to $0.6947, its highest level in more than four months, supported by China’s reopening. AUD curve bull steepens with 3-year yield ~13bps lower
  • Turkey’s lira weakened as investors weighed President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s signal that general elections will be held in early May, a month earlier than scheduled

In rates, Treasuries were pressured lower with losses led by long-end, continuing Friday’s post-payrolls steepening move amid wave of block trades. US yields are higher by as much as 4bp at long-end, steepening 5s30s, 2s10s spreads by around 2bp; 10-year around 3.595%, cheaper by 3.5bp on day but outperforming bunds in the sector by ~2.5bp.  Treasuries took their cue from wider bear-steepening move across core European rates following first EU bond sales of the year. Another heavy IG credit issuance slate is expected this week, which also includes December CPI data Thursday and Fed Chair Powell appearance Tuesday.  

In commodities, crude futures advanced, pushing Brent up almost 3.5% to trade near $81.11. Spot gold rises roughly $8 to trade near $1,873/oz while base metals are in the green.

In crypto, Bitcoin is firmer and has managed to surpass and gain a more convincing foothold above USD 17k, after fleeting breaches of the figure in recent sessions, with the 16th Dec USD 17524 peak into play

The only event on today’s quiet calendar is the consumer credit print at 3pm ET. There are two Fed speakers on deck as well, Bostic and Daly, speaking shortly after noon.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.4% to 3,932.00
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.5% to 446.56
  • MXAP up 1.7% to 161.51
  • MXAPJ up 2.4% to 535.12
  • Nikkei up 0.6% to 25,973.85
  • Topix up 0.4% to 1,875.76
  • Hang Seng Index up 1.9% to 21,388.34
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.6% to 3,176.08
  • Sensex up 1.4% to 60,752.44
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.6% to 7,151.33
  • Kospi up 2.6% to 2,350.19
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 2.27%
  • Euro up 0.3% to $1.0677
  • Brent Futures up 3.0% to $80.90/bbl
  • Brent Futures up 3.0% to $80.89/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.4% to $1,873.06
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.27% to 103.60

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Central banks aren’t giving up their inflation fight yet with the peak in interest rates still to come in most economies, but pauses will come at some point in 2023 — and perhaps even pivots
  • The ECB predicts wage growth — a key indicator of where inflation is headed — will be “very strong” in the coming quarters, strengthening the case for more interest-rate hikes, the institution said Monday in an article to be published in its Economic Bulletin
  • UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is set for talks with the union leaders directing the wave of strikes that have hobbled the UK since the start of the year, as the threat of more widespread action hangs over the country
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin’s plans to squeeze Europe by weaponizing energy look to be fizzling at least for now. Mild weather, a wider array of suppliers and efforts to reduce demand are helping, with gas reserves still nearly full and prices tumbling to pre- war levels
  • The SNB expects an annual loss of about 132 billion francs ($143 billion), more than five times the previous record, it said Monday in preliminary results. The largest part of this, 131 billion francs, stems from collapsed valuations of its large pile of holdings in foreign currencies, accrued as a result of decade-long purchases to weaken the franc
  • A ship has been refloated after running aground in the Suez Canal and briefly disrupting traffic in the waterway that’s vital for global trade
  • Brazil’s capital was recovering early Monday from an insurrection by thousands of supporters of ex-President Jair Bolsonaro who stormed the country’s top government institutions, leaving a trail of destruction and testing the leadership of Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva just a week after he took office
  • Chinese officials are considering a record quota for special local government bonds this year and widening the budget deficit target as they ramp up support for the world’s second- largest economy, according to people familiar with the matter
  • Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said careful explanation and communication with markets would be part of consideration on monetary policy, when asked about possible future changes in the Bank of Japan’s ultra-loose policy

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pac stocks gained with the MSCI Asia Pacific index on course to enter a bull market as the region took impetus from last Friday’s rally on Wall St. ASX 200 was led higher by strength in the commodity-related sectors and with sentiment also helped by China’s border reopening which JPMorgan predicts could boost Australia’s economy by nearly one percentage point over the next two years, although gains are capped following disappointing building approvals data. KOSPI outperformed with the index and shares in LG Electronics unfazed by the Co.’s softer preliminary Q4 earnings. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were supported after China’s border reopening over the weekend added to the hopes of an economic recovery and with Alibaba shares spearheading the advances in Hong Kong after Jack Ma ceded control of affiliate Ant Group.

Top Asian News

  • Chinese President Xi Jinping stressed the importance of remaining committed to advancing reform, exploring new ground and carrying forward the fighting spirit, in a bid to modernize the work of judicial, procuratorial, and public security organs, according to China Economic Net.
  • PBoC official Guo Shuqing said China’s growth will return to a normal path as China provides further support to households and companies to help recover following the end of the zero-Covid policy, according to People’s Daily.
  • Tens of thousands of travellers began to fly in and out of mainland China on Sunday following the removal of nearly all of China’s border restrictions, according to WSJ.
  • China’s health security administration said talks to include Pfizer’s (PFE) Paxlovid in the drug list for basic state health insurance failed due to the Co.’s high quotation for the antiviral medicine, according to Reuters.
  • Six Chinese cities set GDP targets for this year ranging from 5.5%-7.0%, according to Securities Daily.
  • Japanese PM Kishida said they must choose a successor to BoJ Governor Kuroda best suited for the post at the time when Kuroda’s term ends in April and must discuss with the next BoJ Governor the relationship between the government’s and BoJ’s policies. Kishida added that the government and BoJ must work closely together and each should play their own roles in achieving sustained price stability, while he noted that the government is ready to respond flexibly using reserves when asked if further steps could be taken to soften the blow on households from rising prices, according to Reuters.
  • China reportedly considering a record special debt quota and a wider budget deficit, via Bloomberg; considering a deficit ratio of circa. 3% for the year. New special bond quota of up to CNY 3.8tln.

European bourses are firmer across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.3%, as the constructive APAC tone continues amid a limited European docket. Sectors are primarily in the green, with defensive names lagging somewhat in-fitting with the risk tone.
US futures are in the green, ES +0.4%, in-fitting with the above sentiment ahead of Fed speak and a NY Fed Consumer Expectations survey. Apple’s (AAPL) iPhone exports from India have doubled to a record USD 2.5bln, via Bloomberg.

Top European News

  • BoE’s Mann said energy price caps could be lifting inflation in other sectors by boosting consumer spending and noted it is unclear what would happen to inflation when caps are removed, according to Bloomberg.
  • UK PM Sunak said inflation is not guaranteed to decline this year and that the government will need to be disciplined to ensure inflation is brought down, according to Reuters. In other news, PM Sunak said he was willing to discuss pay increases for nurses in an effort to end strikes as ministers prepare to meet union leaders on Monday, according to FT.
  • Czech Central Bank Governor Michl said they expect a significant drop in inflation from spring and are ready to raise rates further if the baseline scenario of a decline in inflation does not materialise, while he added that policy will be strict until inflation begins declining, according to Reuters.

FX

  • DXY continues to slip below the 104.00 mark between 103.860-420 parameters towards key technical support and its December low (103.380).
  • Action which is benefitting peers across the board ex-JPY, which is suffering amid the easing in USTs/EGBs and a Japanese holiday, with USD/JPY above 132.50.
  • Antipodeans are the current outperformers with AUD surpassing 0.69 and Kiwi eclipsing 0.64 vs USD, before waning slightly.
  • EUR/USD hit, but failed to breach, 1.07 while Cable is off best but still above 1.21 in a 1.2089-1.2174 range.
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.8265 vs exp. 6.8276 (prev. 6.8912)

Fixed Income

  • EGBs under pressure and continuing to retreat from Friday’s best, with Bunds down by nearly 100 ticks and Gilts similarly dented though managing to retain 102.00 at present
  • USTs are similarly softer, though have largely been consolidating towards the APAC trough given the absence of Japanese participants ahead of Fed speak and NY survey, with yields modestly firmer across the curve.

Commodities

  • Crude benchmarks are bid this morning, with WTI Feb and Brent Mar posting upside in excess of 3.0% or USD 2.0/bbl respectively.
  • Action has been driven by China’s ongoing reopening and fresh geopolitical headlines, alongside other crude-specific developments (see below).
  • Qatar set February marine crude OSP at Oman/Dubai plus USD 0.75/bbl and land crude OSP at Oman/Dubai plus USD 2.10/bbl. In relevant news, Qatar Energy is to sign Ras Laffan Petrochemicals Complex agreements with the project to cost USD 6bln and it created a JV with Chevron Phillips Chemicals of which it owns 70% and Chevron (CVX) owns 30%, according to Reuters.
  • Iraq’s Oil Minister said the Karbala oil refinery will begin commercial production in mid-March, according to Reuters.
  • US DoE rejected the initial batch of bids from oil companies to resupply a small amount of oil to the SPR in February, according to Reuters.
  • Colonial Pipeline said repairs at the Witt Booster Station were completed and Line 3 returned to normal operations as of 17:51 EST on Sunday, according to Reuters.
  • China has issued a second batch of 2023 crude oil import quotas to independent refiners totalling 111.82mln/T, via Reuters citing sources.
  • Iraq February Basrah medium crude OSP to Asia -USD 1.40/bbl vs Oman/Dubai average, via Somo; to Europe at -USD 8.95/bbl vs Dated Brent.
  • Spot gold is fairly contained around the mid-point of USD 1864-1880/oz parameters, with the yellow metal deriving some upside from the DXY struggling to attain a positive foothold; next resistance mark is USD 1885/oz from the 9th of May.

Geopolitics

  • Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukrainian forces were repelling Russian attacks on Bakhmut in eastern Donbas and were holding position in nearby Soledar under very difficult conditions, according to Reuters.
  • Russia’s Defence Ministry said it struck a building in eastern Ukraine which killed more than 600 Ukrainian troops in retaliation for Ukraine’s deadly strike against a Russian barracks, although Ukrainian officials denied there were any casualties and said the strike by Russia only damaged civilian infrastructure, according to Reuters and ITV.
  • Russia and Belarus will conduct joint air force drills on January 16th-February 1st, according to the Belarusian Defence Ministry cited by Reuters.
  • Russian Kremlin has rejected suggestions from Ukraine that Russian official Kozak is sounding out officials in Europe about a potential peace deal.
  • Swedish PM Kristersson said they have fulfilled commitments made to Turkey at the Madrid summit but noted that Turkey is demanding concessions that Stockholm cannot give to approve its application to join NATO, according to FT.
  • China’s military said it carried out combat drills around Taiwan on Sunday, while Taiwan’s Defence Ministry stated 28 Chinese aircraft crossed the Taiwan Strait median line and entered the air defence zone in the past 24 hours. Furthermore, Taiwan’s presidential office said it condemns China’s recent military drills around Taiwan and that Taiwan’s position is very clear whereby it will not escalate conflict nor provoke disputes but added that it will firmly defend its sovereignty and national security, according to Reuters.

Crypto

  • Bitcoin is firmer and has managed to surpass and gain a more convincing foothold above USD 17k, after fleeting breaches of the figure in recent sessions, with the 16th Dec USD 17524 peak into play. Bafin warns of Godfather malware attack on banking/crypto apps.

US Event Calendar

  • 15:00: Nov. Consumer Credit, est. $25b, prior $27.1b

Central bank Speakers

  • 12:30: Fed’s Bostic Takes Part in Moderated Discussion
  • 12:30: Fed’s Daly Interviewed in WSJ Live event

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

I hope your Sunday was more peaceful than mine. I played my first round of golf since back surgery (don’t tell my consultant) and got stuck at the golf course afterwards as there was a big police search with helicopters over the area I walk home across. My wife and kids were out in the garden at the time and had to rush in as the copter nearly landed in the adjoining field. So at least they knew I wasn’t making up being delayed. Had it not been pouring with rain I would have had time for another 9 by the time I could make it home via a huge detour. To be fair for me there are worst places to be stuck but it was a touch concerning.

That capped the end of a week where if you thought 2023 might start calmer than 2022 then you may have wanted to think again as there was plenty to debate and plenty of big swings in markets and data. In fact, after weak European headline inflation last week and a bad miss for the US Services ISM on Friday it was the best week for 10yr German bunds (-35.8bps) since data on Bloomberg starts around reunification in 1990. This week the main highlights are a speech from Powell in Sweden tomorrow morning, US and China CPI on Thursday, and Q4 US earnings season starting in earnest with 3 big financials on Friday.

Before we go through things in more detail it’s worth recapping Friday’s US data which resulted in a major shift lower in yields. Payrolls were firm as expected with the headline at +223k and unemployment unexpectedly falling a tenth to 3.5%, the lowest since Neil Armstrong first walked on the moon. As our US economists discuss here though, there were signs of slowing growth in the report with, for example, hours worked (34.3hrs vs. 34.4hrs) and average hourly earnings (+0.3% vs. +0.4%) declining. These factors led US yields lower after the report but the Services ISM dropping from 56.5 to 49.6 was a bit of shocker, especially when the consensus was at 55. There’s a chance the exceptionally cold weather could have artificially depressed the survey but the associated commentary wasn’t great and new orders fells 10.8 points to 45.2 which outside the pandemic is the lowest since the GFC and levels only previously associated with recessions. 2 and 10yr yields fell -21bps and -16bps on the day but around 15-16bps of both moves came after the ISM which shows its impact. Ironically the S&P 500 climbed +2.28% on the day but c.1.75% of this was after this shocker of a print showing that the influence of rates on equities outweighed the economic concerns. Such an equity move couldn’t possibly last if this ISM print heralded in a stream of recessionary data. It can only last if the data suggests an environment weak enough to merit the Fed pausing soon with the economy managing a soft landing. Remarkably European PMIs now stand near a record high relative to the US which is part of the reason for preferring European credit given it still trades wide to the US.

A fuller review of the week for assets (a significant one to start the year) can be found at the end as usual. Let’s move on to this week now and start with the US CPI print for December on Thursday which will be the pivotal data point in January. In terms of the MoM rate, the headline CPI is expected at -0.15% at DB (consensus 0.0% vs. +0.10% previously) with core CPI expected at +0.22% at DB (+0.3% consensus vs. +0.20% previously). In terms of YoY, headline is expected to drop from 7.1% to 6.3% at DB (6.5% consensus) with core falling from 6% to 5.6% (5.7% consensus).

Another inflation-related data point will come from the University of Michigan survey on Friday, where the gauge of consumer inflation expectations will be in focus. Other US data releases will include consumer credit (DB forecast +$30.5B vs +$27.1 in October) today and the NFIB small business optimism index on Tuesday.

Central bank speakers will also be in the spotlight with appearances from Fed Chair Powell and BoE Governor Bailey at the Riksbank’s International Symposium on Central Bank Independence tomorrow. We will also hear from a number of other Fed and ECB speakers throughout the week (see day by day calendar for the list).

In Europe, key data releases will include industrial production and trade data in Germany, France and the Eurozone. Over in the UK, all eyes will be on the monthly GDP report for November on Friday. Elsewhere, retail sales (Wednesday) figures will be published in Italy along with the unemployment rate (today) for November. Over in China, the CPI and the PPI on Thursday will be the standout.

Turning to earnings now and some of the largest American banks including JPMorgan, Citi and BofA will kick off the earnings season on Friday. We will also hear from BlackRock and UnitedHealth that day. The day before all eyes will be on results from TSMC as concerns over supply-demand dynamics and US-China tensions continue to weigh on the sector, with the Philadelphia semiconductor index down -35% in 2022.

Asian equity markets are continuing their buoyant start to the year overnight and carried on where Wall Street left off it on Friday night. As I type, the KOSPI (+2.33%) is the strongest performer across the region with the Hang Seng (+1.60%), the CSI (+0.67%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.54%) also edging higher amid receding risk-off sentiment after Hong Kong and China resumed quarantine-free travel over the weekend thereby marking the end of the Covid Zero policy. Elsewhere, markets in Japan are closed for a holiday. Futures on the S&P 500 (+0.36%), the NASDAQ 100 (+0.54%) and the DAX (+0.75%) are trading higher as well. Crude oil prices are also higher with Brent futures (+1.18%) at $79.50/bbl and WTI (+1.25%) at $74.69/bbl as we go to print.

Early morning data showed that Australia’s building approvals (-9.0% m/m) dropped further in November compared to a downwardly revised -5.6% decline in October.

In the US, the House Republican leadership standoff came to an end over the weekend after Republican Kevin McCarthy was elected as speaker after 14 failed attempts following days of gruelling negotiations.

Recapping last week now, and markets put in a strong start to 2023 as signs of economic weakness and declining inflationary pressures raised hopes that central banks wouldn’t be as aggressive as feared on hiking rates. In particular, the aforementioned ISM services index on Friday created a major bond and equity rally to end the week. However ominously it means December was the first month since May 2020 that both the ISM US services and manufacturing components were in contractionary territory.

On the back of ISM and payrolls, investors immediately moved to price in a less aggressive pace of rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. For instance, futures pricing for the end-2023 rate came down by -10.3bps over the week (-19.0bps on Friday) to 4.48%. That was a big catalyst for risk assets, with the S&P 500 surging +2.28% on Friday, which brought the index back into positive territory for the week at +1.45%. It also led to a massive decline in Treasury yields, with the 10yr down -31.7bps over the week (-16.0bps Friday) to 3.558%.

Over in Europe there was a similarly optimistic picture, aided by the news on Friday from the flash Euro Area CPI release. That showed headline inflation falling to +9.2% in December (vs. +9.5% expected), although core inflation did hit a record high of +5.2%. This backdrop meant equities and bonds surged across the continent, with the STOXX 600 up +4.60% (+1.16% Friday) to mark its strongest weekly performance since March. At the same time, 10yr bund yields fell -35.8bps (-10.5bps Friday), marking their largest weekly decline in records going back to German reunification in 1990.

Let’s see what week 2 of 2023 brings

AND NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)

Risk sentiment supported as China’s reopening continues, Fed speak/NY Fed survey due – Newsquawk US Market Open

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MONDAY, JAN 09, 2023 – 06:45 AM

  • European bourses are firmer across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.3%, as the constructive APAC tone from China’s reopening leads
  • US futures are in the green, ES +0.4%, in-fitting with the above sentiment ahead of Fed speak and a NY Fed Consumer Expectations survey
  • DXY continues to slip below the 104.00 mark between 103.860-420 parameters towards key technical support and its December low (103.380)
  • Action which is benefitting peers across the board ex-JPY, which is suffering amid the easing in USTs/EGBs and a Japanese holiday, with USD/JPY above 132.50
  • EGBs under pressure and continuing to retreat from Friday’s best, with Bunds down by nearly 100 ticks and Gilts similarly dented though managing to retain 102.00 at present
  • Crude benchmarks are bid this morning, with WTI Feb and Brent Mar posting upside in excess of 3.0% or USD 2.0/bbl respectively; given China’s reopening and geopolitical developments
  • Looking ahead highlights include speeches from Fed’s Bostic, Daly, BoE’s Pill & NY Fed Consumer Expectations survey.

View the full premarket movers and news report. 

Or why not try Newsquawk’s squawk box free for 7 days?

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

  • European bourses are firmer across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.3%, as the constructive APAC tone continues amid a limited European docket.
  • Sectors are primarily in the green, with defensive names lagging somewhat in-fitting with the risk tone.
  • US futures are in the green, ES +0.4%, in-fitting with the above sentiment ahead of Fed speak and a NY Fed Consumer Expectations survey
  • Apple’s (AAPL) iPhone exports from India have doubled to a record USD 2.5bln, via Bloomberg.
  • Click here for more detail.

FX

  • DXY continues to slip below the 104.00 mark between 103.860-420 parameters towards key technical support and its December low (103.380).
  • Action which is benefitting peers across the board ex-JPY, which is suffering amid the easing in USTs/EGBs and a Japanese holiday, with USD/JPY above 132.50.
  • Antipodeans are the current outperformers with AUD surpassing 0.69 and Kiwi eclipsing 0.64 vs USD, before waning slightly.
  • EUR/USD hit, but failed to breach, 1.07 while Cable is off best but still above 1.21 in a 1.2089-1.2174 range.
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.8265 vs exp. 6.8276 (prev. 6.8912)
  • Click here for more detail.

FIXED INCOME

  • EGBs under pressure and continuing to retreat from Friday’s best, with Bunds down by nearly 100 ticks and Gilts similarly dented though managing to retain 102.00 at present
  • USTs are similarly softer, though have largely been consolidating towards the APAC trough given the absence of Japanese participants ahead of Fed speak and NY survey, with yields modestly firmer across the curve.
  • Click here for more detail.

COMMODITIES

  • Crude benchmarks are bid this morning, with WTI Feb and Brent Mar posting upside in excess of 3.0% or USD 2.0/bbl respectively.
  • Action has been driven by China’s ongoing reopening and fresh geopolitical headlines, alongside other crude-specific developments (see below).
  • Qatar set February marine crude OSP at Oman/Dubai plus USD 0.75/bbl and land crude OSP at Oman/Dubai plus USD 2.10/bbl. In relevant news, Qatar Energy is to sign Ras Laffan Petrochemicals Complex agreements with the project to cost USD 6bln and it created a JV with Chevron Phillips Chemicals of which it owns 70% and Chevron (CVX) owns 30%, according to Reuters.
  • Iraq’s Oil Minister said the Karbala oil refinery will begin commercial production in mid-March, according to Reuters.
  • US DoE rejected the initial batch of bids from oil companies to resupply a small amount of oil to the SPR in February, according to Reuters.
  • Colonial Pipeline said repairs at the Witt Booster Station were completed and Line 3 returned to normal operations as of 17:51 EST on Sunday, according to Reuters.
  • China has issued a second batch of 2023 crude oil import quotas to independent refiners totalling 111.82mln/T, via Reuters citing sources.
  • Iraq February Basrah medium crude OSP to Asia -USD 1.40/bbl vs Oman/Dubai average, via Somo; to Europe at -USD 8.95/bbl vs Dated Brent.
  • Spot gold is fairly contained around the mid-point of USD 1864-1880/oz parameters, with the yellow metal deriving some upside from the DXY struggling to attain a positive foothold; next resistance mark is USD 1885/oz from the 9th of May.
  • Click here for more detail.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

  • BoE’s Mann said energy price caps could be lifting inflation in other sectors by boosting consumer spending and noted it is unclear what would happen to inflation when caps are removed, according to Bloomberg.
  • UK PM Sunak said inflation is not guaranteed to decline this year and that the government will need to be disciplined to ensure inflation is brought down, according to Reuters. In other news, PM Sunak said he was willing to discuss pay increases for nurses in an effort to end strikes as ministers prepare to meet union leaders on Monday, according to FT.
  • Czech Central Bank Governor Michl said they expect a significant drop in inflation from spring and are ready to raise rates further if the baseline scenario of a decline in inflation does not materialise, while he added that policy will be strict until inflation begins declining, according to Reuters.
  • Supporters of former Brazilian president Bolsonaro invaded ministry buildings, Congress and the Presidential Palace in Brasilia, while the Brasilia Governor said all security forces have been deployed and the US Embassy in Brazil warned US citizens to avoid the central Brasilia area until further notice. Furthermore, President Lula declared a federal security intervention in Brasilia until January 31st and security forces later took back Brazil’s Congress, Supreme Court and Presidential Palace, according to Reuters and GloboNews.
  • South Africa’s Eskom said it will implement stage 3 electricity cuts from 05:00-16:00 local time and stage 4 cuts during 16:00-05:00 daily until further notice, according to Reuters.

NOTABLE DATA

  • German Industrial Output MM (Nov) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. -0.1%, Rev. -0.4%)
  • EU Sentix Index (Jan) -17.5 vs. Exp. -18.0 (Prev. -21.0)
  • EU Unemployment Rate (Nov) 6.5% vs. Exp. 6.5% (Prev. 6.5%)

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

  • White House said it is not considering going around Congress to raise the debt ceiling and that Congress will have to raise the debt limit without conditions, according to Reuters.
  • US House of Representatives voted to elect Kevin McCarthy as House Speaker after a 15th ballot, while President Biden congratulated McCarthy and said that he is prepared to work with Republicans when he can, according to Reuters.
  • cargo vessel has run aground in the Suez Canal, via AP citing Leth (service firm), unclear as to what extent traffic is affected; tugs are currently trying to refloat the vessel. Subsequently, Suez Canal Chairman says the grounding of M/V Glory has not affected waterway traffic and Leth says 19 vessels are backed up in the Suez Canal due to the M/V Glory grounding. M/V GLORY has been refloated by the Suez Canal Authority tugs, via Leth Agency; “21 vessels going southbound will commence/resume their transits. Only minor delays expected.”
  • Click here for the US Early Morning note.

GEOPOLITICS

  • Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukrainian forces were repelling Russian attacks on Bakhmut in eastern Donbas and were holding position in nearby Soledar under very difficult conditions, according to Reuters.
  • Russia’s Defence Ministry said it struck a building in eastern Ukraine which killed more than 600 Ukrainian troops in retaliation for Ukraine’s deadly strike against a Russian barracks, although Ukrainian officials denied there were any casualties and said the strike by Russia only damaged civilian infrastructure, according to Reuters and ITV.
  • Russia and Belarus will conduct joint air force drills on January 16th-February 1st, according to the Belarusian Defence Ministry cited by Reuters.
  • Russian Kremlin has rejected suggestions from Ukraine that Russian official Kozak is sounding out officials in Europe about a potential peace deal.
  • Swedish PM Kristersson said they have fulfilled commitments made to Turkey at the Madrid summit but noted that Turkey is demanding concessions that Stockholm cannot give to approve its application to join NATO, according to FT.
  • China’s military said it carried out combat drills around Taiwan on Sunday, while Taiwan’s Defence Ministry stated 28 Chinese aircraft crossed the Taiwan Strait median line and entered the air defence zone in the past 24 hours. Furthermore, Taiwan’s presidential office said it condemns China’s recent military drills around Taiwan and that Taiwan’s position is very clear whereby it will not escalate conflict nor provoke disputes but added that it will firmly defend its sovereignty and national security, according to Reuters.

CRYPTO

  • Bitcoin is firmer and has managed to surpass and gain a more convincing foothold above USD 17k, after fleeting breaches of the figure in recent sessions, with the 16th Dec USD 17524 peak into play.
  • Bafin warns of Godfather malware attack on banking/crypto apps.

APAC TRADE

  • APAC stocks gained with the MSCI Asia Pacific index on course to enter a bull market as the region took impetus from last Friday’s rally on Wall St.
  • ASX 200 was led higher by strength in the commodity-related sectors and with sentiment also helped by China’s border reopening which JPMorgan predicts could boost Australia’s economy by nearly one percentage point over the next two years, although gains are capped following disappointing building approvals data.
  • KOSPI outperformed with the index and shares in LG Electronics unfazed by the Co.’s softer preliminary Q4 earnings.
  • Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were supported after China’s border reopening over the weekend added to the hopes of an economic recovery and with Alibaba shares spearheading the advances in Hong Kong after Jack Ma ceded control of affiliate Ant Group.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

  • Chinese President Xi Jinping stressed the importance of remaining committed to advancing reform, exploring new ground and carrying forward the fighting spirit, in a bid to modernize the work of judicial, procuratorial, and public security organs, according to China Economic Net.
  • PBoC official Guo Shuqing said China’s growth will return to a normal path as China provides further support to households and companies to help recover following the end of the zero-Covid policy, according to People’s Daily.
  • Tens of thousands of travellers began to fly in and out of mainland China on Sunday following the removal of nearly all of China’s border restrictions, according to WSJ.
  • China’s health security administration said talks to include Pfizer’s (PFE) Paxlovid in the drug list for basic state health insurance failed due to the Co.’s high quotation for the antiviral medicine, according to Reuters.
  • Six Chinese cities set GDP targets for this year ranging from 5.5%-7.0%, according to Securities Daily.
  • Japanese PM Kishida said they must choose a successor to BoJ Governor Kuroda best suited for the post at the time when Kuroda’s term ends in April and must discuss with the next BoJ Governor the relationship between the government’s and BoJ’s policies. Kishida added that the government and BoJ must work closely together and each should play their own roles in achieving sustained price stability, while he noted that the government is ready to respond flexibly using reserves when asked if further steps could be taken to soften the blow on households from rising prices, according to Reuters.
  • China reportedly considering a record special debt quota and a wider budget deficit, via Bloomberg; considering a deficit ratio of circa. 3% for the year. New special bond quota of up to CNY 3.8tln.

DATA RECAP

  • Australian Building Approvals (Nov) -9.0% vs. Exp. -1.0% (Prev. -6.0%, Rev. -5.6%)

1.c MONDAY/  SUNDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 18.45 PTS OR0.58%   //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 386,70 PTS OR 1.89%     /The Nikkei closed            //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.64%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP TO 6.7806//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP TO 6.7898//    /Oil UP TO 76.41 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 81.15   / Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY GREEN         ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER

2 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/

///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

end

2B JAPAN

Japan

end

3c CHINA /

CHINA/RUSSIA/BRI

a must read…

Why BRI is back with a bang in 2023

Robert HryniakJan 6, 2023, 7:16 PM (14 hours ago)
to

Well this is hard to explain to a mindless ship of fools who are out played and out classed by realities of finance and economics and geopolitics. Every nation seeks economic growth to enrich the nation and its’ inhabitants. This has been the cause of many a migration over centuries of people and capital followed by resources. Every day people understand you work, your earn, you prosper. Work more and produce more and wealth comes to increase both standing and lifestyle. It is no different for nations who harness their inhabitants to trade to increase national wealth. While silliness of debt spending imagining that debt is wealth only lasts as long as the fiction is bought. Just anyone who lived on credit beyond their means to face a day of reckoning.

China is in reality decoupling itself from Europe and North America looking to replace the trade volumes leaving the West to choke on nonsensical policies and while denying thievery from this new Eurasian growth. The West is  at a  loss as to understanding what this means with respect to no Central bank games or false credit based banking to rape growth. While America may have a so called 23 trillion dollar economy; it pares down quickly when you remove the financial part to what is really made and sold in physical goods. And thus reduces both  influence and requirement of a model that is unwelcoming.

The current fiasco of Ukraine becoming a a travesty is not lost on this new formation of nations growing their prosperity. And one can easily see that there is little if any room for USD in bilateral trade that is Yuan centric. Military belligerence is seeing its’ end as Russia faces off American aggression. The big losers are the innocent people who die or suffer in the crosshairs of hegemony and failed policies of deadbeat Neocons. The prospect of the Ukraine or any other incoming participant being able to repay the debt dollars wasted, is zero. Even Iraq has symbolically charged Trump with charges that mean little but do tell a tale of refusal to roll over. And it really puts a lid on dreams of Dinar glory.

If ever there was a time for America to rebuild it is now. Because without a restarted and remade model the hegemony of America is doomed to decline carrying the rest of the West with it. And yes, delusional Klaus at the WEF is not welcomed with foolishness of socialist idealism. Perhaps adaptable to a shrinking Europe or Western culture, however even there it is doomed to fail for it does not account for human nature. The thoughts that people will give up their wealth and be happy is delusional as the idea that giving up cars as a means of transport makes sense in nations where travel is a must. A return to simple village life of centuries ago is simply not possible, unless the West chooses to go back a hundred and fifty years to the time of horses. And one supposes horse farts are climate changing so foot traffic and like will not work. The truth is whether or not one wishes to understand and accept what is happening, it is moving without a care. Globalism is dead on arrival in Eurasia and those companies are not prepared to accept what is occurring will leave themselves to face declines as Western Standards of living decline.

It is a brave new world for embracement, if one wants to seek growth and change attitudes.

https://thecradle.co/Article/Columns/20037//

PEPE ESCOBAR

Escobar: Why BRI Is Back With A Bang In 2023

SUNDAY, JAN 08, 2023 – 08:30 PM

Authored by Pepe Escobar via The Cradle,

As Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative enters its 10th year, a strong Sino-Russian geostrategic partnership has revitalized the BRI across the Global South…

The year 2022 ended with a Zoom call to end all Zoom calls: Presidents Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping discussing all aspects of the Russia-China strategic partnership in an exclusive video call.

Putin told Xi how “Russia and China managed to ensure record high growth rates of mutual trade,” meaning “we will be able to reach our target of $200 billion by 2024 ahead of schedule.”

On their coordination to “form a just world order based on international law,” Putin emphasized how “we share the same views on the causes, course, and logic of the ongoing transformation of the global geopolitical landscape.”

Facing “unprecedented pressure and provocations from the west,” Putin noted how Russia-China are not only defending their own interests “but also all those who stand for a truly democratic world order and the right of countries to freely determine their own destiny.”

Earlier, Xi had announced that Beijing will hold the 3rd Belt and Road Forum in 2023. This has been confirmed, off the record, by diplomatic sources. The forum was initially designed to be bi-annual, first held in 2017 and then 2019. 2021 didn’t happen because of Covid-19.

The return of the forum signals not only a renewed drive but an extremely significant landmark as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), launched in Astana and then Jakarta in 2013, will be celebrating its 10th anniversary.

BRI version 2.0

That set the tone for 2023 across the whole geopolitical and geoeconomic spectrum. In parallel to its geoconomic breadth and reach, BRI has been conceived as China’s overarching foreign policy concept up to the mid-century. Now it’s time to tweak things. BRI 2.0 projects, along its several connectivity corridors, are bound to be re-dimensioned to adapt to the post-Covid environment, the reverberations of the war in Ukraine, and a deeply debt-distressed world.

Map of BRI (Photo Credit: The Cradle)

And then there’s the interlocking of the connectivity drive via BRI with the connectivity drive via the International North South Transportation Corridor (INTSC), whose main players are Russia, Iran and India.

Expanding on the geoeconomic drive of the Russia-China partnership as discussed by Putin and Xi, the fact that Russia, China, Iran and India are developing interlocking trade partnerships should establish that BRICS members Russia, India and China, plus Iran as one of the upcoming members of the expanded BRICS+, are the ‘Quad’ that really matter across Eurasia.

The new Politburo Standing Committee in Beijing, which are totally aligned with Xi’s priorities, will be keenly focused on solidifying concentric spheres of geoeconomic influence across the Global South.

How China plays ‘strategic ambiguity’

This has nothing to do with balance of power, which is a western concept that additionally does not connect with China’s five millennia of history. Neither is this another inflection of “unity of the center” – the geopolitical representation according to which no nation is able to threaten the center, China, as long as it is able to maintain order.

These cultural factors that in the past may have prevented China from accepting an alliance under the concept of parity have now vanished when it comes to the Russia-China strategic partnership.

Back in February 2022, days before the events that led to Russia’s Special Military Operation (SMO) in Ukraine, Putin and Xi, in person, had announced that their partnership had “no limits” – even if they hold different approaches on how Moscow should deal with a Kiev lethally instrumentalized by the west to threaten Russia.

In a nutshell: Beijing will not “abandon” Moscow because of Ukraine – as much as it will not openly show support. The Chinese are playing their very own subtle interpretation of what Russians define as  “strategic ambiguity.”

Connectivity in West Asia

In West Asia, BRI projects will advance especially fast in Iran, as part of the 25-year deal signed between Beijing and Tehran and the definitive demise of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) – or Iran nuclear deal – which will translate into no European investment in the Iranian economy.

Iran is not only a BRI partner but also a full-fledged Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) member. It has clinched a free trade agreement with the Eurasia Economic Union (EAEU), which consists of post-Soviet states Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan.

And Iran is, today, arguably the key interconnector of the INSTC, opening up the Indian Ocean and beyond, interconnecting not only with Russia and India but also China, Southeast Asia, and even, potentially, Europe – assuming the EU leadership will one day see which way the wind is blowing.

Map of INSTC (Photo Credit: The Cradle)

So here we have heavily US-sanctioned Iran profiting simultaneously from BRI, INSTC and the EAEU free trade deal. The three critical BRICS members – India, China, Russia – will be particularly interested in the development of the trans-Iranian transit corridor – which happens to be the shortest route between most of the EU and South and Southeast Asia, and will provide faster, cheaper transportation.

Add to this the groundbreaking planned Russia-Transcaucasia-Iran electric power corridor, which could become the definitive connectivity link capable of smashing the antagonism between Azerbaijan and Armenia.

In the Arab world, Xi has already rearranged the chessboard. Xi’s December trip to Saudi Arabia should be the diplomatic blueprint on how to rapidly establish a post-modern quid pro quo between two ancient, proud civilizations to facilitate a New Silk Road revival.

Rise of the Petro-yuan

Beijing may have lost huge export markets within the collective west – so a replacement was needed. The Arab leaders who lined up in Riyadh to meet Xi saw ten thousand sharpened (western) knives suddenly approaching and calculated it was time to strike a new balance.

That means, among other things, that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman (MbS) has adopted a more multipolar agenda: no more weaponizing of Salafi-Jihadism across Eurasia, and a door wide open to the Russia-China strategic partnership. Hubris strikes hard at the heart of the Hegemon.

Credit Suisse strategist Zoltan Pozsar, in two striking successive newsletters, titled War and Commodity Encumbrance (December 27) and War and Currency Statecraft (December 29), pointed out the writing on the wall.

Pozsar fully understood what Xi meant when he said China is “ready to work with the GCC” to set up a “new paradigm of all-dimensional energy cooperation” within a timeline of “three to five years.”

China will continue to import a lot of crude, long-term, from GCC nations, and way more Liquified Natural Gas (LNG). Beijing will “strengthen our cooperation in the upstream sector, engineering services, as well as [downstream] storage, transportation, and refinery. The Shanghai Petroleum and Natural Gas Exchange platform will be fully utilized for RMB settlement in oil and gas trade…and we could start currency swap cooperation.”

Pozsar summed it all up, thus: “GCC oil flowing East + renminbi invoicing = the dawn of the petroyuan.”

And not only that. In parallel, the BRI gets a renewed drive, because the previous model – oil for weapons – will be replaced with oil for sustainable development (construction of factories, new job opportunities).

And that’s how BRI meets MbS’s Vision 2030.

Apart from Michael Hudson, Poszar may be the only western economic analyst who understands the global shift in power: “The multipolar world order,” he says,” is being built not by G7 heads of state but by the ‘G7 of the East’ (the BRICS heads of state), which is a G5 really.” Because of the move toward an expanded BRICS+, he took the liberty to round up the number.

And the rising global powers know how to balance their relations too. In West Asia, China is playing slightly different strands of the same BRI trade/connectivity strategy, one for Iran and another for the Persian Gulf monarchies.

China’s Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with Iran is a 25-year deal under which China invests $400 billion into Iran’s economy in exchange for a steady supply of Iranian oil at a steep discount. While at his summit with the GCC, Xi emphasized “investments in downstream petrochemical projects, manufacturing, and infrastructure” in exchange for paying for energy in yuan.

How to play the New Great Game

BRI 2.0 was also already on a roll during a series of Southeast Asian summits in November. When Xi met with Thai Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha at the APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation) Summit in Bangkok, they pledged to finally connect the up-and-running China-Laos high-speed railway to the Thai railway system. This is a 600km-long project, linking Bangkok to Nong Khai on the border with Laos, to be completed by 2028.

And in an extra BRI push, Beijing and Bangkok agreed to coordinate the development of China’s Shenzhen-Zhuhai-Hong Kong Greater Bay Area and the Yangtze River Delta with Thailand’s Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC).

In the long run, China essentially aims to replicate in West Asia its strategy across Southeast Asia. Beijing trades more with the ASEAN than with either Europe or the US. The ongoing, painful slow motion crash of the collective west may ruffle a few feathers in a civilization that has seen, from afar, the rise and fall of Greeks, Romans, Parthians, Arabs, Ottomans, Spanish, Dutch, British. The Hegemon after all is just the latest in a long list.

In practical terms, BRI 2.0 projects will now be subjected to more scrutiny: This will be the end of impractical proposals and sunk costs, with lifelines extended to an array of debt-distressed nations. BRI will be placed at the heart of BRICS+ expansion – building on a consultation panel in May 2022 attended by foreign ministers and representatives from South America, Africa and Asia that showed, in practice, the global range of possible candidate countries.

Implications for the Global South

Xi’s fresh mandate from the 20th Communist Party Congress has signaled the irreversible institutionalization of BRI, which happens to be his signature policy. The Global South is fast drawing serious conclusions, especially in contrast with the glaring politicization of the G20 that was visible at its November summit in Bali.

So Poszar is a rare gem: a western analyst who understands that the BRICS are the new G5 that matter, and that they’re leading the road towards BRICS+. He also gets that the Quad that really matters is the three main BRICS-plus-Iran.

Acute supply chain decoupling, the crescendo of western hysteria over Beijing’s position on the war in Ukraine, and serious setbacks on Chinese investments in the west all play on the development of BRI 2.0. Beijing will be focusing simultaneously on several nodes of the Global South, especially neighbors in ASEAN and across Eurasia.

Think, for instance, the Beijing-funded Jakarta-Bandung high-speed railway, Southeast Asia’s first: a BRI project opening this year as Indonesia hosts the rotating ASEAN chairmanship. China is also building the East Coast Rail Link in Malaysia and has renewed negotiations with the Philippines for three railway projects.

Then there are the superposed interconnections. The EAEU will clinch a free trade zone deal with Thailand. On the sidelines of the epic return of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva to power in Brazil, this past Sunday, officials of Iran and Saudi Arabia met amid smiles to discuss – what else – BRICS+. Excellent choice of venue: Brazil is regarded by virtually every geopolitical player as prime neutral territory.

From Beijing’s point of view, the stakes could not be higher, as the drive behind BRI 2.0 across the Global South is not to allow China to be dependent on western markets. Evidence of this is in its combined approach towards Iran and the Arab world.

China losing both US and EU market demand, simultaneously, may end up being just a bump in the (multipolar) road, even as the crash of the collective west may seem suspiciously timed to take China down.

The year 2023 will proceed with China playing the New Great Game deep inside, crafting a globalization 2.0 that is institutionally supported by a network encompassing BRI, BRICS+, the SCO, and with the help of its Russian strategic partner, the EAEU and OPEC+ too. No wonder the usual suspects are dazed and confused

END

CHINA/USA/RUSSIA/GLOBE

same topic as above:

Alex Kimani/Oil Price.com

Why We Shouldn’t Underestimate China’s Petro-Yuan Ambitions

FRIDAY, JAN 06, 2023 – 08:20 PM

Authored by Alex Kimani via OilPrice.com,

  • Credit Suisse’s Zoltan Pozsar: the de-dollarization of the global oil industry is in full swing–even if we can’t see the final end game from here.
  • Some 40% of proven oil reserves belonging to OPEC+ members is owned by Russia, Iran and Venezuela–all of whom are selling to China at major discounts.
  • Chinese President Xi Jinping has pledged to ramp up efforts to promote the use of the yuan in energy deals.

The de-dollarization of the global oil industry is in a treacherous mission creep phase. Things like this don’t happen quickly, but determinedly and gradually, not exactly fitting into today’s media headline game that only considers instant developments. But it is happening and the tide will not be turned based on current and near and medium-term geopolitical developments.  Credit Suisse’s Zoltan Pozsar recently warned clients, in essence, that the de-dollarization of the global oil industry is in full swing–even if we can’t see the final end game from here. 

And it’s all about China, of course. Pozsar does the OPEC math for us. 

Some 40% of proven oil reserves belonging to OPEC+ members is owned by Russia, Iran and Venezuela–all of whom are selling to China at major discounts, and all of whom are on board with Beijing’s petro-yuan plan. 

The countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)–most notably Saudi Arabia and the UAE–account for another 40% of proven oil reserves, and they are increasingly cozying up to China. 

The remaining 20% is also accessible to China, and China is already the largest importer of crude in the world. 

What it all means is that de-dollarization is marching to the beat of a fairly steady drum. In terms of global trade, the yuan accounts for around 2.7% of settlements, while the dollar accounts for 41%. These are the numbers that prompt the new trend of instant gratification to suggest this is not an imminent threat to the dollar. They are wrong. The biggest threats take a significant amount of time to develop. From here on out, the pace will pick up momentum. 

China and the GCC

As Oilprice.com reported earlier in December, Chinese President Xi Jinping has pledged to ramp up efforts to promote the use of the yuan in energy deals, suggesting at a summit in the Saudi capital that the GCC countries should make full use of the Shanghai Petroleum and Natural Gas Exchange to carry out its trade settlements in yuan. 

The year we just exited should be considered the year in which the petro-yuan really took hold, as China forges a path of increasingly oil and gas purchases from places that are petro-yuan friendly. Russia’s war on Ukraine and the Western sanctions response has only acted as a further catalyst. 

In a note to clients carried by the Irish Times, Pozsar warns: “China wants to rewrite the rules of the global energy market”, and it will do it by first removing the dollar from the orbit of the Bric countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China) that have been affected by the “weaponization” of dollar foreign exchange reserves meant to punish Russia and keep Putin from filling his wartime coffers. 

What’s happened here is a window of enormous opportunity for Beijing, which has now told the Gulf countries that they are absolutely guaranteed buyers for oil and gas, for payment in yuan, with Xi promising to “import crude oil [and natural gas] in a consistent manner and in large quantities from the GCC”.

Xi’s trip to Saudi Arabia in early December was precisely about the yuan. This was the defining moment for the petro-yuan. It was an invitation, and it was well-received. China and Saudi Arabia signed over $30 billion in trade deals during the visit. That’s $30 billion in leverage that will only help further promote the petro-yuan plan. 

More than 25% of China’s crude imports come from Saudi Arabia, and it seems inevitable that the GCC will gradually adopt the petro-yuan, even if there will be a lot of roadblocks along the way due to their exposure to Western financing. 

What Western minds are banking on–quite literally–is the fact that China alone has $1T in U.S. Treasury bonds. And as for the Saudis, they are truly tied to the Western financial system and the petrodollar. De-pegging the riyal from the dollar, though it has been discussed very quietly (only from a purely research perspective), would be a rather dramatic shock for the Kingdom–one the Crown Prince won’t likely be willing to risk for a very long time. But he will actively discuss oil deals with China in yuan

The Chinese goal is much more patient than any Western mind can fathom. It’s about slowly chipping away at the dollar’s throne in oil and commodities markets, and as the reserve currency of choice. That is what Brics and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is all about. 

And with every geopolitical upset on the level of Russia-Ukraine, and with every tightening of the sanctions screws by the West, Beijing gets a little further with its petro-yuan goals. 

There won’t be any announcement. There won’t be any loud noise. It will happen gradually. It will happen very slowly. And the West will struggle to find its footing when a new global energy order emerges in the longer-term future. 

.

end

CHINA/TAIWAN

China responds to large scale exercises off Taiwan

(zerohedge)

China Responds To US Warship Presence With Large-Scale Exercises Off Taiwan

MONDAY, JAN 09, 2023 – 08:40 AM

China is intensifying its military presence near Taiwan coming days after the US sailed a warship through the Taiwan Strait for the first time in 2023 last week.

The USS Chung-Hoon made the provocative passage on Thursday, and three days later on Sunday China sent 28 warplanes across the median line of the Taiwan Strait. The Chinese PLA military has been semi-regularly breaching the median line by air and sea ever since Nancy Pelosi’s provocative visit to Taiwan back in August.Image: Xinhua

end

CHINA/COVID

Get a load of this:

From Robert H to us

Almost 90 pct of China’s third most populous province infected with COVID-19 | Al Arabiya English

https://english.alarabiya.net/coronavirus/2023/01/09/Almost-90-pct-of-China-s-third-most-populous-province-infected-with-COVID-19

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS/UK AFFAIRS//

UK/GLOBE

A  good one!

Kit Knightly/Off Guardian.org

How Global Strikes Play Right Into The Great Reset’s Hands

SUNDAY, JAN 08, 2023 – 08:10 AM

Authored by Kit Knightly via Off-Guardian.org,

For the past few months strikes have wrought havoc with the UK’s national infrastructure, and will likely continue to do so well into 2023.

The run-up to Christmas saw postal strikes for the UK’s Royal Mail service.

Throughout the second half of 2022, transport strikes were routine. There’s one happening today that has effectively shut down all train journeys.

There’s a possibility of a teachers’ strike later this month, that would see kids sent home from school. Nurses went on strike in December, and will likely do so again this month

It’s not just the UK either. Strikes in several sectors took place all across Western Europe in December and into early January so far.

New York’s nurses are ready to go on strike next week, and Minnesota nurses only narrowly avoided a strike last month.

It was only Joe Biden’s presidential overreach that prevented a nation-wide rail workers’ strike just before Christmas.

A google trends search for the terms “strike” or “industrial action” have seen surging interest worldwide in the last few months. An admittedly crude measure, but certainly not meaningless.

Strikes are suddenly becoming a high profile global phenomenon.

Given the economic hardships currently being imposed this is not surprising of course.

Corporations price fix and cut costs at every turn, and wages have stagnated for decades while profits soar. No wonder workers and their representatives are trying to redress this balance in any way they can.

But in the New Normal world, what does that mean? And is it possible this perfectly just cause is being manipulated into furthering the great reset agenda?

After all the Union model has a clear disadvantage in the current situation:

It is built on the underlying assumption that bosses want their workers to work.

But post-scamdemic is this any longer reliably the case?

For almost three years we have seen the vast majority of the corporate-political structure dedicated to stopping workers from working.

Covid and “lockdowns” have demonstrated that the establishment wants to:

  • Stop people travelling
  • Stop people working
  • Breakdown healthcare and medical services
  • Cripple supply chains
  • Increase the cost of living
  • Generally ruin the economy

Governments around the world have shown us they want stagnation, disruption and misery.

However just the cause, it’s also true that strikes further almost all of these goals.

And of course they can easily be created by leveraging workers through inflation & price hikes into taking industrial action just to preserve a living wage.

There’s also the handy bonus of shifting the blame at the same time. Just as the appalling state of the economy was blamed on the war in Ukraine in 2022, it will be blamed on striking unions in 2023.

Another reason for repeating the mantra: “the system is broken, we need a new way of doing things.”

…and then, of course, comes another step toward the Great Reset.

What that specifically means in this instance is not yet clear, although some kind of Universal Basic Income system seems likely (it’s in the zeitgeist right now, as we predicted in our This Year in the New Normal post).

Maybe more “public” ownership of utilities, or perhaps new legislation for a state-backed employment mandate where the unemployed are given digital busywork to do from home, like a cyber work camp.

In the UK at least we won’t know for sure until we have a Labour government installed to “save the day”.

Other “resets” could include higher “benefits” that accompany some kind of agreement to not unionise and never go on strike. A proto-social credit system.

It might be sold as “the end of the need to strike”, and everyone will celebrate the new law that makes striking illegal, while anyone who points out the further reduction of our rights will be called old-fashioned and, of course, a “conspiracy theorist”.

“We don’t need strikes with the new way of doing things, and people that want to go on strike will ruin it for everyone else,” could so easily be the line touted by all the usual suspects.

That’s just speculation, of course. One possible future.

Other knock-on effects could play a role in the GR as well.

For example, if corporations are “forced” to increase their pay rates, they will naturally increase their prices to preserve profit margins – meaning strikes can be directly parlayed into exacerbating the cost of living crisis, even as they are called a “victory” for working people.

Or maybe nursing strikes will mean we “lose control of the Covid situation”, and have to endure a new wave of masks and lockdowns.

We can’t be sure what the exact next steps will be, but we can be aware of the high likelihood this current wave of “worker unrest” is being manipulated to further the aims of the globalist narrative-makers, that the government-corporate-union trifecta will guarantee strikes continue, and that it’s playing an important part in shaping our new normal future.

END

5.UKRAINE RUSSIA//MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

TURKEY/RUSSIA/ISRAEL/IRAN/USA

Our resident expert in European/Asian affairs explains Turkey’s position of pivoting towards Russia. This is a must read!!

Tom Luongo

Turkey’s Erdogan Flips Syria On Its Head

SUNDAY, JAN 08, 2023 – 07:00 AM

Authored by Tom Luongo via Gold, Goats, ‘n Guns blog,

While we are all, rightfully, worried about what’s going on in Ukraine, those sneaky Russians are shoring up their situation on the south shores of the Black Sea and Eastern Mediterranean. 

As reported last week the meeting between Russia, Turkiye, and Syria took place between their Defense Ministers where they all described the talks as ‘constructive’ towards solving multiple outstanding issues like refugees and the backing of radicals.

This meeting was put in motion by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as the Moscow Times article notes:

In November, Erdogan said a meeting with Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad was a possibility, after cutting diplomatic ties with Damascus throughout the 11-year conflict.

In mid-December, he indicated that he could meet with Assad after the two countries’ defense and foreign ministers meet.

“We want to take a step as Syria, Turkey and Russia,” [emphasis mine] he said at the time.

The issues discussed are especially important for Erdogan as the protracted war is sapping his popularity at home in the face of an ongoing pull out of western capital from Turkey that has seen the lira go through what can only be described as a hyperinflation since 2018.

With elections on the horizon and Erdogan’s position tenuous for the first time in his political career, moves need to be made now to improve things. Allowing the millions of Syrian refugees the opportunity to go home would be a big win for Erdogan politically.

This is also a good use of Sergei Shoigu, the Russian Defense Minister, since he’s not in charge of the operation in Ukraine and hasn’t been since October, with good reason.

Shoigu, I’m sure, has been preparing for this meeting for months, laying the groundwork for talks between Turkiye and Syria that are long overdue.

As Alex Mercouris pointed out in a recent Duran video, Turkiye’s president Erdogan set three steps for a resolution of the conflict between it and Syria.  This meeting of the Defense Ministers is the 2nd of them. 

The Foreign Ministers are now clear to meet.  Presumably, after that, Erdogan and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad will meet with the Russians as negotiator to hammer out an official end to Turkiye’s involvement in the Syrian War which began more than a decade ago.

Without Turkiye’s involvement in Syria, the Neocons’ goal of strangling Russia on gas imports to Europe never happens. This was the main impetus behind the Syrian War in the first place. To get him on board, Erdogan had to be bribed with a massive land grab, which he’s tried to accomplish.

But when he didn’t do enough to start a war with Russia in November 2015 after Turkiye supposedly shot down a Russian SU-24, he was rewarded with a coup attempt against him led by the CIA and US military out of the Incerlik airbase, by all accounts.

He was saved, apparently, by an early warning from Putin and ferried out to Iran to issue his counter-attack orders to the Turkish military on the night of the coup attempt.

This was the beginning of the end of Turkiye’s relationship with NATO and the US. 

The road between Turkey and Russia to this point has been incredibly rocky. Putin has been exceedingly patient with Erdogan over a dozen issues, his back-pedaling and, at times, double-dealing.

But the reality is that, like him or not, every year since Russia’s move into Syria Erdogan has acted in his interest, creating leverage on the ground by taking territory in Syria, making outrageous claims against the Eastern Mediterranean, while playing the West and Russia against each other on NATO expansion, refugee policy, and his support of Azerbaijan and Ukraine.

I’ve even come to the conclusion that his repeated violations of Greek airspace, something that no one else does in the world and the Greeks are well within their rights to stop with force, is likely part of his whole “Crazy Sultan” schtick to keep people on edge.

As I’ve said many times Erdogan plays both sides, dropping a white or black stone on the Geopolitical Go board when it suits his agenda.

And his agenda today is nearly complete; an independent yet still pivotal Turkiye.  

So, against that backdrop his making nice with Syria is a bombshell that the West shouldn’t be surprised about since Erdogan has been throwing wrenches into their works since the beginning of the Ukraine War in February.

But the timing of this is the most inconvenient for the US/UK neocons who are clearly ramping up a 2023 regime change operation against Putin in Russia.  

When you put it all together — Erdogan facing stiff opposition in the polls, hyperinflation, unrest at home, and an election later this year — ending the war in Syria had to be tops on his to-do list for 2023.

It won’t come without consequences. And while he’s tried to play ‘possum on his real intentions for years, is anyone really surprised that he’s making this move now?

At some point everyone runs out of room to maneuver and you have to not only choose your side, but announce it to everyone and take the reaction to it.

So, John Bolton’s mustache is all aquiver over this and he wants Turkiye booted from NATO. Clearly this is because Erdogan is blocking Sweden and Finland’s accession which apparently is more important to Bolton than maintaining supply routes to US troops trapped in Syria and Iraq should Erdogan expel the US from Incerlik in response.

Con Coughlin at The Telegraph has come to this same conclusion in a screed that reads like a prelude to another attempt to get rid of this agitator in Ankara.

Turkey’s decision to press ahead with the Russian purchase [S-400’s] has not only put it on a collision course with Washington, which is threatening to scrap the F-35 deal at the end of the month; it also shows Ankara’s utter contempt for the Nato alliance, an attitude that key European member states such as Britain must demonstrate they are no longer able to tolerate.

His conclusion, Turkiye’s contempt for NATO, which I can’t really argue with, is grounds for its dismissal from the alliance.

But, as I said, this kind of reaction is exactly what Erdogan needs from the West, who have treated him and Turkiye as a fifth wheel for a long time. The neocons can frame his antics however they like but have they really thought through what happens after that?

Knowing the neocon mindset, I don’t think they have. They are so focused on Russia and convinced of the outcome of their war against it that they can just kick one of the largest armies in the world to the curb with immense geostrategic importance in the crotch and it won’t matter.

Without Turkiye’s backing in Idlib, the rebels there won’t survive in the long run.  Erdogan will ratchet up his attacks on the SDF Kurds in the east backed by the US. This leaves Israel in a more tenuous position as well, surviving really only on Russia’s continued good graces.

Because the recent reports of US troops coming under intense missile attacks in Deir Ezzor where they are protecting the stealing of Syrian oil are a signpost that both Syria and Iran have had their shackles taken off by Putin in confronting the US in Syria.

In light of Angela Merkel’s admission of the Minsk Accords being a ruse to arm Ukraine, I don’t think you need further proof that Putin now has his legal ducks in a row to take the fight directly to the US, knowing that conflict is inevitable.

Think of it this way.  Before Merkel’s admission, the West was able to credibly compose the narrative that Putin unjustly invaded Ukraine. Guys like Con Coughlin still calling Russia ‘a rogue state’ is ridiculous when the pretense of diplomacy is gone. You can’t put that genie back in the bottle and still declare Russia’s move into Ukraine on 2/24/2022 was wholly unprovoked.

With a viable Minsk document in place it gave Putin’s new ‘allies’ a public reason to point to when stabbing him in the back if Russia faltered on the battlefield or their proxies like Syria.

Now, with that narrative blown up — not for the normies, but for the Heads of State of the Global South — Putin is justified to no longer play footsie with the US through proxies. 

There is no reason to not cross redlines that were always there as olive branches to form the basis of future diplomatic efforts. The current crop of morons and psychopaths leading the West with their prep school antics are irredeemable in the eyes of not just the Russians, but also now the Turks, Iranians, Chinese, Pakistanis, etc.

There are consequences to bragging on Twitter like Michael McFaul that as an ambassador he openly lied, or worse former Sec. of State Mike Pompeo making it effectively State Dept. policy to lie because that was his training at the CIA.

Need more proof? Putin just sold Iran dozens of SU-35s.  This was another implicit redline to placate the US he just crossed, casually I might add.  As long as Iran had a joke of an air force Putin could maintain at least the pretense that he was listening to the US.

But, now all of that is out the window.

Iran is selling Russia drones to wipe out the Ukrainian army and Russia is sending Iran SU-35s to end the threat of Israel doing any more long-range bombing runs in Iran.

The old stalemates are gone.

Given everything that’s happening is it any wonder that the newly-resurrected Bibi Netanyahu in Israel has stepped up the bombings of the Damascus Airport, apparently now shutting it down?  Are we surprised that he is really saber-rattling against Iran?

But at the same time his new defense minister is having second doubts about supporting Ukraine. How do the British neocons square that position with Russia being the rogue state here?

The point is that Putin had to hold out hope for diplomacy and not cross a line until the US/EU came clean with their lying and duplicity.

It had to be public before he could do this, otherwise the fragile coalition he’s formed to combat the West could collapse.

In this respect, Merkel did him a favor.  She also did Davos the favor of framing the US for all the troubles now.

Now he’s crossing them all and Erdogan is following along.

I get why the neocons are pissed, but they have no one to blame but themselves for being sucked into a war with unreliable European partners, who have a very different agenda.

Remember, also, Erdogan’s very troubled relationship with Merkel over the migrant issues and EU accession.  The EU dangled that in front of him for years while he threatened to flood Europe with more migrants.  

That standoff broke down a couple of years ago and now Erdogan has to allow the Syrians and the Lebanese a path to going home, if only to unburden the Turkish economy and social fabric.

So, Erdogan has always known who Merkel really was.  She’s exactly as Mercouris has described her in the past, someone juggling all of these balls with the intent of maintaining the status quo.  That status quo was buying time for the Davos agenda to mature.  That’s all it was.

I’ve always maintained that Putin and his staff utilize parallel-aggression to counter the neocons’ implacable commitment to being on offense.  They push in one theater, he pushes in another equally.

And what’s interesting here is that at some point the whole ‘Putin is the aggressor’ narrative will collapse in normie space when the stakes get high enough because the people of the West aren’t committed to why Ukraine or Syria is our fight.

These deals were never really sealed.  

It means that Syria will shoot down an Israeli F-16 at some point and Israel will have to take it.  Or it will provoke Bibi to do something so rash that no one will be able to spin it in his favor.

Davos is hanging Israel out to dry at the UN, driving the Neocons to the point of alcoholism.

Either way, what Putin has done here, with Erdogan’s help, is turn the entire power dynamic of aggression on its head.  

Now, the Russians can allow Syria and Iran to ‘defend themselves’ while keeping his hands mostly clean there.

Now the real ‘bluff calling’ phase of this situation begins.  

Now, we’ll see how long “Biden” will keep troops in Syria, stealing oil and enforcing sanctions that Turkiye will make redundant in a few weeks?

Expect regime change operations in Turkiye this fall.  Expect stepped-up Israeli aggression against both Syria and Iran until such time as Iran’s IRGC air force is strong enough to defend itself.

The timer is ticking on all of the conflicts in this region: Syria, Iraq, Yemen.  

And the key to it all was always getting Erdogan to flip them all on their heads by helping expose the mendacity of this generation of ‘leaders’ in the West.

end

EUROPE/USA/UKRAINE/RUSSIA

Tom Luongo’s predictions for 2023:

(Tom Luongo)

Luongo On 2023: Biden Impeached, Riyal De-Pegged, & Fed Terminal Rate Closer To 7%

SUNDAY, JAN 08, 2023 – 11:30 AM

Authored by Tom Luongo via Gold, Goats, ‘n Guns blog,

Consider this, Consider this the hint of the century
Consider this, the slip, that dropped me to my knees, failed.
What if all these fantasies come flailing around?
And now, I’ve said…. too much

– R.E.M. – Losing My Religion

I probably should have codified these before the turn of the new year but I didn’t even think of doing one of these lists until someone mentioned it on Twitter a few days ago.

So, here it goes.  

My predictions for 2023 and all center around the big theme of 2023, the loss of confidence in the world we’ve always known.

In other words 2023 will embody the phrase we use down here in the South, “Losing my Religion.”

1)  Inflation will return with a vengeance. 

What we’ve experienced so far came from the big commodity pump-and-dump post-COVID.  Commodities went through a massive run as more money chased broken supply chains in 2020-21. Then in 2022 the inevitable bust happened, but left us with commodity prices across the board at levels which used to be resistance on the long-term price charts which has now become support.

The next round of commodity-based cost-push inflation will mix dangerously with the growing realization that we can’t avoid things breaking.  There will be no ‘soft landing.’ The hard landing may not happen in 2023, but the set up for it will certainly take place. 

Cost-push will mix with Loss of Institutional Confidence to light the fire of real inflation versus tangible assets in a way we haven’t seen since the late-1970’s.  We should see a return to increasing YoY CPI levels beginning in Q2 after the baseline effects are past and China’s reopening keeps a bid under commodities.

January will not set the tone for commodities in 2023, but more likely be a ‘false move’ overcorrecting against the primary trend, which is clearly higher.

2) The Fed’s terminal rate is closer to 7% than the ~5% the markets are handicapping.

The Fed hiked by 50 bps in Dec.  The markets are signaling 25 bps on Feb. 1st.  I think it will be another 50.  In fact, my base case now is four 50 bp hikes followed by four 25’s by December for a terminal rate of 7% by this time next year.  

Even I was surprised by the violence of Powell’s hawkishness in 2022.  He did what I wanted him to do, be aggressive and attack the source of Davos’ power, the leveraged offshore dollar markets.  He forced out into the open the unsustainability of a weaker dollar based on the clown show on Capitol Hill being worse than the real collapsing governments across Europe.

Powell’s plan has worked so far, forcing everyone to climb the wall of worry that The Fed Put is dead. That so many refuse to accept this is why markets this January, like last January, are completely mispriced. Until this is accepted, Powell will use every excuse to keep raising rates as fast as he can to ‘finish the job.’

Today’s job’s number and unemployment rate support this. Revised Q3 2022 GDP at +2.6% is another. The market keeps wanting to believe in a 5.25% to 5.50% terminal rate for this move. But if I’m right about #1 and structural inflation returns in Q2, the Fed will not slow down until we reach near parity with, of all people, the Bank of Russia.

Rising inflation makes this prediction a slam dunk

3) The Euro will collapse to $0.80 or lower

The ECB is trapped.  It can’t accept higher rates but it can’t afford for the euro to collapse either.  A falling euro means energy input costs skyrocket in real terms.  While a zombie banking system and Sovereigns in debt to someone else’s eyeballs (e.g. $1.1+ trillion in TARGET2 liabilities) see budgets blow out with higher debt servicing costs.

ECB Chair Christine Lagarde bought herself some time in 2022 with the TPI — Transmission Protection Instrument — and some big moves to subvert the UK government, putting Brexit on the ropes.  She’s behind the inflation curve worse than Powell is.  But she can’t attract capital today without big rate moves, Powell’s beat her to that punch.

Ultimately, Lagarde will protect credit spreads while letting the euro go.

The EU still believes it can bolt on more problems like the UK and now Croatia (#20 in the euro-zone) to stave off the collapse of the euro by expanding its reach. We ended 2022 with the euro ‘painting the tape’ at $1.07. It’s already given us a preview of the volatility we should expect in this first week of trading.

The Eurocrats in Brussels still believe in the EU’s inevitability, not because it is true, because they have to. The EU is a religion to the political class of Europe and its Davos paymasters.  They, like real communists, see this period as the end-state of capitalism and that the dialectic is true.  History was written, as it were.

They are wrong.  And the beginning of the end of the European Union starts in 2023 with another 20% to 25% collapse of the euro.

4) The War in Ukraine Will Continue Dangerously

The West is suffering under many illusions about what’s going on in Russia and, by extension, its war in Ukraine.  The UK/US neocons believe, like the EU, that history is already written about Russia’s future –balkanization and collapse.

All pressure that the West places on Russia only exacerbates their demographic time bomb.  China’s as well.  And in that sense this is the race they are running.  Can they grind up enough Russians to ensure that even if Russia wins the war in Ukraine the West wins because the long-sought breakup of the USSR/Tsarist Empire will be achieved.

For this reason neither the UK/US Neocons nor Davos believe having a reverse gear vis a vis Russia is the right play.  This is their strategic vision, regardless of the costs to the West itself.

For Russia there is no other play for them but to continue increasing the costs on the West.  The longer the war goes on the deeper divisions within the EU get.  Those divisions then drive even more animosity within the Eurocracy towards the Brits and the Yanks, who some feel are taking advantage of the situation.

When as ardent an Eurocrat as Guy Ver Hofstadt is now frothing at the mouth about the costs of sanctions, you know the Mafiosi in Brussels are getting nervous. They are beginning to crack under the strain of this war of financial and political attrition Russia is so good at playing against its European partners.

Even though I’ve argued strenuously that the EU leadership walked into Ukraine with its eyes open, the 2nd tier of the Eurocracy did not.  And those are the ones having cold feet now and who the Russians are hoping will drive a pivot from Davos off Ukraine.  

At the same time, expect Putin to keep opening up new fronts for the US/UK to deal with, see my next point.

The UK/US Neocons’ only play, then, on the battlefield then is further escalation to the brink of a nuclear exchange, which these insane people think they can win.

The other option is assassinating Putin in the hopes that Russia goes mad, nukes someone and that justifies the unthinkable.

Either way we’re inching way too close to midnight for my tastes.

5) The US Will Leave Syria in 2023

The recent meeting between Russian, Syrian and Turkish Defense Ministers paves the way for a similar upcoming meeting between the three countries’ Foreign Ministers.  

Once that happens, Syrian President Assad and Turkish President Erdogan will presumably sit down with Russian President Putin and end Turkiye’s involvement in Syria.  This will hang their pet jihadists in Idlib out to dry and leave the US forces there heavily exposed. 

We’re already seeing them come under rocket fire though you’d never hear about this in the Western press.  I went over this in grave detail in a recent post.

By making the deals with Erdogan over becoming the new “Gas Hub” into Europe, Putin has effectively done to the US and UK what they always try to do to Russia, open up another front to distract it from the main problem, i.e. Ukraine.

Now Syria becomes the 2nd battleground for the US to decide if it will defend or will it suffer another ignominious retreat like Afghanistan?  

6) De-Dollarization Will Accelerate / USDX Will Rise.

Along with the collapse of the euro, the US dollar will lose more ground in the global payment system for international commodities and trade.  

These two dynamics will create a very weird moment where the USDX — the US Dollar Index — will rise but the US dollar will be under sincere pressure vs. gold, commodities, and other rising emerging/developed market currencies.

The USDX is heavily weighted towards the euro and the British pound but the Chinese yuan is not represented at all.  So, from one perspective the US dollar could be in a bull market but from another be in a bear market.

The one thing holding gold back has been its lack of bull market versus the dollar. It’s not a ‘secular’ bull market in gold until it’s rising versus all currencies. Even if the USDX does nothing but hold its ground in 2023 versus the rest of its fiat competition, a rally in gold will still be fed by people the world over ‘losing their religion’ with respect to the dollar.

That said, that fall in faith will likely not outpace the fall in faith of the “Fed Put.” I expect the ‘religion’ of the Fed Put is still stronger than the dollar itself which should put upward pressure on the US dollar overall. Because, let’s not forget that overseas US dollar synthetic short positions, known as US dollar-denominated debt, are still pretty biblical in size, keeping a strong bid under the dollar globally even as its position as a reserve and trade settlement currency erodes.

Because of all of these competing forces — inflation, de-dollarization, war, etc. — the last US dollar bull market for the foreseeable future should be on tap in 2023.  For how long? It’s a good question, I can’t answer.  

But I do know that it’s tied to #7 and to the Fed’s need to keep raising rates…

7) Saudi Arabia will de-peg the Riyal 

In fact, I also expect the Hong Kong Dollar peg to fall, but maybe not in 2023.  It depends on the strength and rate of internationalization of the Chinese yuan this year.

Oil prices are going higher once China’s economy is past the Omicron 2.0 wave crashing over it right now. The Saudis have been tendered the offer by China’s Xi to begin weaning itself off the US dollar.  Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman seems agreeable to this.  

When (not if) the Saudis put their first oil tender up for bid in Shanghai, that will signal the end of the currency peg that created the petrodollar.  It will be a subtle thing that will gain steam over time, just like Russia and China diversifying their holdings into each other’s debt and currencies has taken years to develop.

So, the petrodollar will continue to die by a thousand cuts.  The Saudis will lead OPEC+ out of the US dollar arena, validating both China’s onshore futures markets while also moving a significant amount of the gold trade away from London to Hong Kong.

By hedging their oil profits in gold on China’s international exchange they strengthen both the onshore (CNY) and offshore (CNH) yuan markets and laying the foundation for a much different financial future, including one where the Hong Kong dollar either floats or re-pegs itself to the yuan, likely the former.

8) Oil will Open 2023 Near the Yearly Low

The fundamentals for oil are truly bullish.  China ending Zero-COVID just after the EU put its idiotic price cap on seaborne Russian oil was a strategic move to subvert “Biden’s” wish to refill the now nearly depleted US Strategic Petroleum Reserve at or below $70 per barrel.  

He may get that from domestic producers for a while.  But Brent ended 2022 at $86 and a little downside momentum may be in place with early US dollar strength, but then fundamentals easily overcome this.

“Biden” will not refill the SPR at $70 per barrel now that China just blew up the entire “deflation through higher rates” narrative.  The US economy has held up better to the Fed than expected.  Even Q3 GDP wasn’t uniquely terrible. The jobs report and low unemployment rate, while possibly artifacts of a changing labor market, still give us signals that the US economy isn’t as bad as many want it to be at 4.5% Fed Funds Rate to validate their place in the commentariat.

Europe is getting a small reprieve with the extremely mild winter so far, pushing energy prices down, especially natural gas, for now.

The global recession talk is vastly overblown until something fundamentally breaks. Anyone looking at the end of the year book squaring in things like the Reverse Repo balance (+$300b in one week) is overthinking the problem. The banks are allowed to tailor their reserves to present whatever quarterly numbers they want. It’s been going on since the Bernanke Era.

As such, I see a kind of perfect storm for oil here.  Russia will pull production off the market and shift exports from St. Petersburg (Urals grade) to Kosmino, near Vladivostok (ESPO grade), nabbing higher prices in the long run.

Arab OPEC can’t hit its production quotas as it is and China’s reopening its entire economy.

The Davos demanded ESG investment protocols have the oil industry anywhere from $600b to $1trillion underinvested in exploration and production and that number is rising.

Increased demand, tight supply, low replenishment investment and WAR.  Even a moron or Joe Biden can see that $70 per barrel Brent is out of the question for any significant period of time.

9) Dow Jones 40,000+

As we enter 2023 the Dow Jones Industrials sit right around 33,000.  It was a tumultuous 2022. After hitting a new all-time high a year ago at 36952.53 it was all downhill for most equity indices.

The stronger USD fueled a lot of capital reorganization, interest rates were finally forced higher by the Fed and incessant talk of recession kept everyone selling first and asking questions later.

But in this ‘pivot-obsessed,’ low pain environment, relief rally after relief rally was snuffed out until finally in Q4 the Dow made everyone stand up and take a little notice as to what was happening… flight to quality into tangible assets with deep liquidity pools.

The Dow lost 8.7% in 2022.  The S&P 500?  15.8%.  The NASDAQ?  27.7%

For all of the bitching gold bugs did in 2022, gold was up 1.6% 

If we begin to move into the next stage of stagflation (#1) then the Dow will continue to outperform the broader US equity markets as well as major foreign equity markets.

2022 Foreign Performance:

  • German DAX in 2022: -9.2%
  • Euro Stoxxx 50: -7.2%
  • FTSE 100: 1.2%

Are those indexes sustainable given the economic outlook for Europe and the ECB following the Fed up the rate curve lest everyone ‘lose their religion’ in it? Or will the still weakly expanding US economy look more tasty to global investors and the hopeless Brits look insanely overvalued?

If we have another year like we did in 2022 where high inflation outpacing nominal growth drives tangible asset investment we should see an outperformance from the US vs. Europe as the currencies collapse and the ECB’s tools prove inadequate. Emerging Markets, depending on their proximity to China and the US may have banner years, especially those that underperformed in 2022.

10) Biden is Impeached

This looks like the long-shot of 2023, but I think we are very close to the moment where Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) goes one step further than Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) and not only leaves the Democrats but flips to the GOP, giving them the outright majority in the Senate (50-49-1)

Even though Kevin McCarthy didn’t lose his bid for re-election as House Speaker, which has turned CSPAN into must-see TV these past few days, the fight itself is indicative of serious change coming to Capitol Hill.

This is the essence of the ‘counter-revolution’ in the US I wrote about a few weeks ago.

The soft underbelly for Biden at this point is FTX and divulsions of the US Gov’t’s censorship activities on Twitter.  All of these things, along with corruption in Ukraine, can easily be tied back to Biden.  

The majority of people are so black-pilled at this point that they believe nothing will ever change on Capitol Hill.  But the first rule of good investing is remembering that the majority is almost always wrong.

And it is the sudden realization of their real power by a critical mass of people that alter the landscape literally overnight. So, while it looks like Matt Gaetz (R-FL) and Lauren Boebert (R-CO) tilted at windmills against a terminally corrupt Uniparty, they are simply fanning the smoldering embers of long-thought-dead principles on Capitol Hill.

This was the subject of my latest podcast with Bill Fawell, the state of the revolution in the US. {N.B. Bill and I discussed his Cycle of Revolutions in Episode #110 last summer}

And when you read the rules deal that McCarthy signed to get elected, this is a recipe for the weakest Speaker from a Uniparty perspective we’ve had in decades. It’s a win. A small win but a win nonetheless.

Since the mid-terms, this transition period has exposed yet even more malfeasance by GOP leadership and the natives are more than restless.  They are angry.  There is no appetite for what the GOPe is selling (out) anymore.  

The façade of the two-party system is over. 

The 2024 election cycle begins in a few months and the mood of the country will tell you which of those up for re-election that will happily cross party lines to save their skins.

It still leaves open the idea of Donald Trump swooping in after McCarthy tries to betray this deal. Matt Gaetz told you the plan when he nominated Trump from the floor.

Embedded in the deal crafted are sincere nods to exactly the kind of signals to fiscal conservatism – halting the budget at FY 2022 levels, balanced budget in 10 years, 3/5ths vote on tax increases, etc. — that I’ve argued is needed to back up Powell and the Fed’s monetary tightening.

Congress has a bigger wall of worry to climb to regain its credibility than the Fed does, but this is a good first step. It’s the step the world wants as well.

Whether it will hold together or not is absolutely up for grabs. But more weakening of the Uniparty in the coming weeks sets the stage for getting rid of Biden and the rest of the vandals on Capitol Hill.

There are a ton of ‘manilla envelopes’ being passed out right now. There is a lot of arm-twisting and overt threats happening. The Davos Mafiosi on The Hill will call in every marker.  We will see a lot of surprising behavior from unlikely sources in 2023.  The energy is there for something big and the incentives are lining up.

Sacrificing “Biden” on this altar may be a small price to pay.

In closing I want you to remember that few of America’s “enemies” want the US to collapse in a disorderly manner, not even China.  

Davos is the only one with that agenda in mind because it fuels their megalomania.

The strident anti-US commentariat is a curious mix at this point of shills for foreign powers, egoists who can’t bare to be wrong, and anti-capitalist ideologues talking their book.  The thoughtful are few and far between and I fear they’ve been gaslit into making huge analytic errors about what’s really going on.

But when you think through what’s happening right now, everyone wants a rational, less arrogant US to settle down, accept a smaller piece of the future pie, and get back to business.  Our criticisms leveled at both Europe and the US is their colonial behavior and their imperial attitude.  

So many will ‘lose their religions’ in 2023 that the changes which come will blindside people, including me.  Honestly, looking at this list, I think many of these predictions err on the side of caution.

That’s the core issue driving all of these trends and my predictions stem from it.

*  *  *

end

‘We Are Facing The Entire NATO In Ukraine’: Kremlin Says, As UK Mulls Battle Tanks

MONDAY, JAN 09, 2023 – 10:00 AM

Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolay Patrushev has issued ultra-provocative words claiming that it’s not fundamentally Ukraine that Russia is at war with, but that the Russian military is facing all of NATO inside Ukraine.

“The events in Ukraine aren’t a clash between Moscow and Kiev. It’s a military confrontation of NATO, first of all the US and Britain, with Russia. Fearing a direct engagement, NATO instructors push Ukrainian men to certain death,” he said in a fresh interview with state-owned newspaper aif.ru.Challenger 2 battle tank, file

Patrushev continued by describing Russia’s military as geared toward seeking to “free its regions from occupation and must put an end to the West’s bloody experiment to destroy the fraternal people of Ukraine.”

We are not at war with Ukraine because we can’t have hatred for ordinary Ukrainians by default,” he stressed. He then presented Russian and Ukrainian heritage and closely bound up together, according to state media

“Get this: the Ukrainian language is one of the official languages in Crimea. Ukrainian cultural centers, Ukrainian folk song and dance groups continue to exist in many cities. A considerable number of people in the south of the Far East regard Ukrainian culture as their own, given a large proportion of migrants from the times of Stolypin,” he said, referring to Pyotr Stolypin, a prime minister of the Russian Empire in the early 1900s, who oversaw a resettlement policy.

“The sooner the people of Ukraine realize that the West is using them to wage a war on Russia, the more lives will be saved,” Patrushev added. “Many have realized that long ago, but they are afraid to say that publicly out of fear of reprisals. It’s not a part of the West’s plans to save someone’s life to the detriment of its enrichment and other ambitions. Even so, the Americans, the British and other Europeans often create an illusion that they protect civilization from barbarians.”

He then referenced the ongoing Western backed attempts of Kiev to make Russian language and culture illegal, which directly impacts millions in the region: “all this story with Ukraine was engineered by Washington to rehearse the technologies of dividing a people that’s one and sow discord,” he said.

Meanwhile, there’s a growing move among leading NATO countries to begin transferring Western tanks and troop carriers to the Ukrainian battlefield. Starting last week, France began leading the way, resulting in a fierce response from the Kremlin…

But following this warning that a “red line” has been crossed, the Biden administration approved sending Bradley Fighting Vehicles, and now Britain is the next to be mulling tanks for Ukrainian forces, as Sky News reports Monday:

The UK is considering supplying Ukraine with British tanks for the first time to fight Russia’s invading forces, Sky News understands.

Discussions have been taking place “for a few weeks” about delivering a number of the British Army’s Challenger 2 main battle tank to the Ukrainian armed forces, a Western source with knowledge of the conversations said.

A Ukrainian official was cited in the report as saying that the UK sending tanks would in turn “encourage others to give tanks.” President Zelensky during his December in-person address to US Congress mentioned that his country is in dire need of tanks, and he’s specifically multiple times asked Washington for M1 Abrams tanks.

The US has still remained reluctant, however, largely on fears that to much heavy weaponry too fast would lead to direct NATO-Russia confrontation, ostensibly at least.

But based on the words of Russian Security Council Secretary Patrushev, it seems Russia increasingly sees military confrontation with NATO as already happening. After all, the massive loss of Russian troops in the Makiivka barracks attack was reportedly accomplished with US-supplied HIMARS missile systems.

RUSSIA/UKRAINE

Russian revenge for Makeevka: Strike “on air” on French TV – 100 dead Ukrainians and NATO advisers – 8 HIMARS & RM-70 systems destroyed! – WarNews247

Robert Hryniak9:52 AM (2 hours ago)
to

In war two can play. There is no question that Western targeting was in play to kill Russians. And while a fair target in war, it is an escalation by direct involvement that carries a response,
There is a rapidly changing attitude in Russia that will bring a more terrifying barrage of missiles, artillery and bombs shortly. And all Western or foreign players will be targeted without exception now. Soon you will hear of Missiles like Hermes with a 100 kilometer range that are Mach4 and truck carried. And yes Russia has many thousands to support infantry advance. And while the West reworks old Soviet era missile systems to carry missiles like Sea Sparrows ( dated ) Russian is and has been building modern day weapons. Many of which are yet to be used but have been built up in inventories.
With a rumored new call up of Reservists of 500,000 Russia will gear to fight on scale not seen since WWII. In Russia recruitment of new recruits has been put off until age 21. This reflects ample reservists available.

END

Soledar falls into Russian hands: Russian Blitzkrieg destroyed Ukrainian defenses – Ukrainians retreat en masse – Thousands trapped in mines – WarNews247

Robert Hryniak

11:54 AM (54 minutes ago)toThis is from the morning of the 6th.
New reports will come tomorrow after the break … Ukrainians who engaged found themselves confronted by Donbas fighters and Wagner forces and not regular Russians .. if those trapped in the mines do not surrender it is possible they will be entombed with cementhttps://warnews247.gr/ektakto-ypo-rosiko-elegcho-to-soledar-rosiko-blitzkrieg-dielyse-tis-oukranikes-amynes-ypochoroun-mazika-oi-oukranoi-chiliades-egklovismenoi-sta-orycheia/

END

RUSSIA/UKRAINE/SUNDAY

Russian Military Says “Retaliation” Strike Killed Over 600 Ukrainian Soldiers

SUNDAY, JAN 08, 2023 – 01:00 PM

The Russian military says it has conducted a major strike on Ukrainian forces in retaliation for the New Year attack on a Russian barracks in Makiivka, Donetsk which marked one of the single deadliest days for Russian forces, and which set off a firestorm of criticism against the top chain of command.

Russia’s Defense Ministry (MoD) said Sunday that it eliminated over 600 Ukrainian troops in a “retaliation operation” in direct response to the “criminal attack” of a week ago. The MoD identified that the operation was conducted against the Ukrainian-held city of Kramatorsk in the Donbass. Photos are emerging from the site, but Ukrainian media is denying Moscow’s claims of hundreds killed.

Russia says it targeted temporary barracks where Ukrainian troops were congregated, just as Ukraine’s army had done the week before in the deadly Makiivka attack.”As a result of a massive missile attack on these temporary housing areas of the Ukrainian military’s units, more than 600 Ukrainian servicemen were killed,” the defense ministry said.

Further, state media describes as follows

Over the past 24 hours, the Russian military has managed to uncover and confirm the location of Ukrainian troops in Kramatorsk in the DPR, the statement read. This data revealed that dormitory No.28 in the city was hosting more than 700 Kiev soldiers, with 600 more staying in dormitory No.47.

While there’s been no confirmation of these high casualty numbers, photographs of a large building which suffered significant damage have been circulating, and the Russian MoD claim is spreading widely in international headlines.

The tit-for-tat alleged mass casualty strike came just hours after the end of Russia’s unilateral 36-hour Christmas ceasefire. Ukraine had rejected the Putin declared temporary truce as but a “trap” and “cynical ploy” while vowing not be observe it.

The Ukrainian government, as well as a handful of Western journalists on the ground and pro-Ukraine media outlets, are disputing that there were any large-scale casualties from strikes on Kramatorsk

Last week’s Makiivka barracks attack may have been Russia’s single biggest loss of the war and was reportedly carried out by the Ukrainians using US-supplied HIMARS missile systems. Moscow’s official death toll is 89 servicemembers killed, but some pro-Russian military bloggers are saying the true number is likely in the hundreds. Kiev advanced that over 300 were killed in the strike. 

It triggered rare internal Kremlin criticism of top Russian command, given hundreds of Russian conscripts were not well protected, and given there appeared widespread use of cell phones and open-source communications on the make-shift base which allowed the Ukrainians to pin-point the location. Officially, Russian commanders are blaming the troops for not observing protocols regarding cell phone usage and unapproved communication restrictions.

This is the reality faced

Robert HryniakAttachments11:48 AM (2 hours ago)
to

Years ago now, i wrote a longer musing about the impossibility of the Euro lasting, and longing for a digital currency( think WEF controlling IMF coinage). Given the naive effort to keep the parade running with non existent interest while collapsing Pension fund returns, nit accepting consequences. The truth is Europe cannot sustain debt based spending. Frankly, no nation can without a corresponding export based production to counter the expenditure. It is no different with a business. As you can debt finance if growth is faster than the cost of money. And China is a good example of a nation that debt financed until the day growth could no longer outrun the cost. Today, china out of necessity seeks Eurasian hegemony to counter a declining Western consumption to avoid collapse of its’ own economy. While the West led by fools and shackled by thievery and waste seeks hegemony to stave off collapse by war. War that has no industrial capacity to back up the front line fight nor the technology to win a conventional confrontation. And it is debatable if there is a winner in a nuclear one.
While this picture is hard to accept; it is reality. It is why also the need stark need to rebuild America as the Leader of the West is the one and only chance the West has to avoid fading into oblivion as so many other cultures and empires have in the past. One only needs to look to history to understand as painful as it maybe. And the war criminals and thieves have to go before it is too late to change. This is another man on the moon moment for the West, if it is still up for it. Rebuild America and then rebuild Europe, there is no other way.
So when we see headlines of Ukraine and it’s travesty, it is scarification pawn in a game of hegemony. Zelensky sold out long ago his soul and the Ukrainians for money. Poland is next to be scarified as i have told you. And the current hype of weapons and equipment being sent to the Ukraine to build the 10th army group is meaningless. It is obsolete equipment which will have no bearing on the outcome of defeat. It is no match for current modern Russian armor in serial production 6 days a week.  Meanwhile the meat grinder will finish off the Ukrainians in the Donbas before this new cannon fodder is ready.
I have repeated warned that for all the talk about removing Putin ( not without many sins) is foolish because he is a moderate and not a hard liner as so many behind him who want to escalate fast and now. Frigates with unstoppable Zircons flying at Mach 9+ are deadly. Soon between Zircon equipped frigates and Subs the oceans will be closed off to carrier fleets as a defense of Russia. So yes, we are watching Europe being sacrificed to build industrial capacity in America since Europe cannot remain a manufacturing base with the high cost of energy. Do not believe me, just do the math yourself. Sadly, this is only a stopgap at best because to compete in tomorrow’s world a new reignite of industry is need by innovation to rebuild industrial capacity that has a place and need tomorrow  midst what China, India and Russia are doing.
And in case of Money, Stupidity not common sense blew the status of Swift ushering in alternatives not just in trade settlement but in actual currency. So as i keep writing watch for the new BRIC mechanism coming soon. Racketeering of the Dollar and thievery and money laundering is short lived in this changing world. The question who is still left or capable of this change because the answer will define the future of the West.

One attachment • Scanned by Gmail

ISRAEL

Very interesting!!

the Cradle

Israeli Army Says It Will Not Take Orders From Extremist Security Minister

FRIDAY, JAN 06, 2023 – 10:20 PM

Via The Cradle,

A special report by Israeli TV Channel 12 revealed that outgoing Israeli army Chief of Staff (CoS) Aviv Kochavi informed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of his decision not to follow orders issued by his coalition ministers. Kochavi’s words were in reference to ministers Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir, who have been granted extended power by Netanyahu under the coalition deal to influence the Israeli army’s chain of command.

The outgoing CoS elaborated in his recent phone call with Netanyahu that he will only answer to Minister of Defense Yoav Galant and will resist orders from elsewhere. Kochavi will oppose Smotrich and Ben-Gvir’s commands and ensure they will not be implemented.Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and outgoing Israeli army Chief of Staff Aviv Kochavi on 15 January 2019. AFP via Getty Images

This situation is expected to create a lot of confusion since Smotrich has been given a role within the Ministry of Defense as a minister who oversees the government’s activities in the occupied territories.

As a result, the leader of the Religious Zionist Party is now in a position to appoint generals to lead the civil-military agency in the West Bank and manage civil issues in Israeli settlements.

This jurisdiction conflicts with the tradition that stipulates that the major general in charge of the Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories (COGAT) is appointed by the minister of defense after being vetted by the army CoS.

Additionally, Netanyahu’s coalition agreement with Ben-Gvir expands his role as Minister of National Security and Police, and puts him in charge of the border police, stripping the Ministry of Defense of its command.

Such a decision would create two leaderships to the Israeli forces in the West Bank, as the border police currently operates jointly with the Israeli army under the command of the CoS.

In light of this development, Kochavi told Netanyahu that he would not allow a dual chain of command due to the repercussions it could cause, and is ready to order the withdrawal of the border police in its entirety.

“If control of the Border Police is transferred out of the IDF’s command in Judea and Samaria, and out of the command of the blue [national] police [inside Israel], we will deploy soldiers and reservists [rather than the Border Police],” Kochavi was quoted by Channel 12.

Kochavi is set to retire on 16 January and will be replaced by his deputy Major General Herzi Halevi.

His concern is echoed by legacy officers in the Israeli army and thousands of other soldiers, including about 1,197 former Israeli air force officers who sent a letter to the Israeli supreme court on 26 December against the new government.

The air force officers considered it a threat that would “destroy Israel’s democracy,” and end the “co-existence of the Israeli community.”

We are on a very slippery slope of the politicization process of civil-military relations or the military, generally speaking,” said the former Director-General of Israel’s Ministry of Strategic Affairs, Kobi Michael.

end

Another important piece from Pepe Escobar

(Pepe Escobar)

Escobar: How General Soleimani Kick-Started The Multipolar World

MONDAY, JAN 09, 2023 – 02:00 AM

Authored by Pepe Escobar,

The consensus among future historians will be inevitable: the 2020s started with a diabolic murder.            

Baghdad airport, January 3, 2020, 00:52 a.m. local time. The assassination of Gen.QassemSoleimani, commander of the Quds Force of the Islamic RevolutionGuards Corps (IRGC), alongside Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, deputy commander of Iraq’s Hashd al-Sha’abi, by laser-guided AGM-114 Hellfire missiles launched from two MQ-9 Reaper drones, was, in fact, murder as an act of war.

This act of war set the tone for the new decade and inspired my book Raging Twenties: Great Power Politics Meets Techno-Feudalism, published in early 2021. 

The drone strikes at Baghdad airport, directly approved by the pop entertainer/entrepreneur then ruling the Hegemon, Donald Trump, constituted an imperial act engineered as a stark provocation, capable of engendering an Iranian reaction that would then be countered by, “self-defense”, packaged as “deterrence”.

The proverbial narrative barrage spun to saturation, ruled it as a “targeted killing”: a pre-emptive op squashing Gen. Soleimani’s alleged planning of “imminent attacks” against US diplomats and troops.No evidence whatsoever was provided to support the claim.

Everyone not only along the Axis of Resistance – Tehran, Baghdad, Damascus, Hezbollah – but across the Global South had been aware of how Gen. Soleimani led the fight against Daesh in Iraq from 2014 to 2015, and how he had been instrumental in retaking Tikrit in 2015. 

This was his real role – a true warrior of the war on terror, not the war of terror. For the Empire, to admit his aura glowed even across – vassalized – lands of Sunni Islam was anathema. 

It was up to then-Iraqi Prime MinisterAdil Abdul-Mahdi, in front of Parliament in Baghdad, to offer the definitive context: Gen. Soleimani, on a diplomatic mission, had boarded a regular Cham Wings Airbus A320 flight from Damascus to Baghdad. He was involved in complex negotiations between Tehran and Riyadh, with the Iraqi Prime Minister as a mediator, and all that at the request of President Trump.

So the imperial machine – following trademark, decades-long mockery of international law – assassinated a de-facto diplomatic envoy.

In fact two, because al-Muhandis exhibited the same leadership qualities as Gen. Soleimani, actively promoting synergy between the battlefield and diplomacy, and was considered absolutely irreplaceable as a key political articulator in Iraq.  

Gen. Soleimani’s assassination had been “encouraged” since 2007 by a toxic mixture of Straussian neo-cons and neoliberal-cons -supremely ignorant of Southwest Asia’s history, culture, and politics – in tandem with the Israeli and Saudi lobbies in Washington.

Trump, blissfully ignorant of international relations and foreign policy matters, could not possibly understand The Big Picture and its dire ramifications when he had only Israeli-firsters of the Jared“of Arabia” Kushner kind whispering in his ear.  

The King is now Naked

But then everything went downhill.

Tehran’s direct response to Gen.Soleimani’s assassination, in fact quite restrained considering the circumstances, was carefully measured to not unleash unrestrained imperial “deterrence”.

It took the form of a series of precision missile strikes on the American-controlled Ain al-Assad air base in Iraq. The Pentagon, crucially, received an advance warning.

And it was precisely that measured response that turned out to be the game-changer.

Tehran’s message made it graphically clear – for the whole Global South to see – that the days of imperial impunity were over.

Any exceptionalist with a working brain would not fail to get the message: we can hit your assets anywhere in the Persian Gulf – and beyond, at the time of our choosing.

So this was the first instance in which Gen Soleimani, even after leaving his mortal coil, contributed to the birth of the multipolar world.

Those precision missile strikes on the Ain al-Assad base told the story of a mid-ranked power, enfeebled by decades of sanctions, and facing a massive economic/financial crisis, responding to a unilateral attack by targeting imperial assets that are part of the sprawling 800-plus Empire of Bases.

Historically, that was a global first –unheard of since the end of WWII.

And that was clearly interpreted across Southwest Asia – as well as vast swathes of the Global South – for what it was: The King is now   Naked.

Surveying the shifting chessboard

Three years after the actual murder, we may now see several other instances of Gen. Soleimani paving the way toward multipolarity.

There was a regime change at the Hegemon – with Trumpism being replaced by a toxic neoliberal-con cabal, infiltrated by Straussian neo-cons, remote-controlling a senile warmongering entity barely qualified to read a teleprompter.

This cabal’s foreign policy turned out to be supremely paranoid, antagonizing not only the Islamic Republic but also the Russia-China strategic partnership.

These three actors happen to be the three top vectors in the ongoing process of Eurasia integration.      

Gen Soleimani may have foreseen, ahead of anyone else except Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei, that the JCPOA – or Iran nuclear deal – was definitely six feet under,  as the recent farce these past few months in Vienna made it clear. 

So he could have possibly foreseen that with a new administration under President EbrahimRaisi, Tehran would finally abandon any hope of being “accepted” by the collective West and wholeheartedly embrace its Eurasian destiny. 

Years before the assassination, Gen. Soleimanihad already envisaged a “normalization” between the Israeli regime and Persian Gulf monarchies.

At the same time he was also very much aware of the Arab League 2002 position – shared, among others, by Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon: a “normalization” cannot even begin to be discussed without an independent – and viable – Palestinian state under 1967 borders with East Jerusalem as capital.

Gen. Soleimani did see the Big Picture all across West Asia, from Cairo to Tehran and from the Bosphorus to the Bab-al-Mandeb. He certainly foresaw the inevitable “normalization” of Syria in the Arab world – and even with Turkey, now a work in progress.

He arguably had imprinted in his brain the possible timeline followed by the Empire of Chaos to completely ditch Afghanistan – though certainly not the extent of the humiliating retreat – and how that would reconfigure all bets from West Asia to Central Asia.

What he certainly didn’t know was that the Empire left Afghanistan to concentrate all its Divide and Rule/strategy of chaos bets on Ukraine, in a lethal proxy war against Russia. 

It’s easy to see Gen.Soleimani foreseeing Abu Dhabi’s Mohammad bin Zayed (MbZ), MbS’s mentor, placing his bets simultaneously on an Israel-Emirates free trade deal and a détente with Iran.

He could have been part of the diplomatic team when MbZ’ssecurity advisor Sheikh Tahnoonmet with President Raisi in Tehran over a year ago, even discussing the war in Yemen.

He could also have foreseen what took place this past weekend in Brasilia, on the sidelines of the dramatic return of Lula to the Brazilian presidency: Saudi and Iranian officials, in neutral territory, discussing their possible détente.  

As the whole chessboard across West Asia is being reconfigured at breakneck speed, perhaps the only developmentGen.Soleimani would not have foreseen is the petro-yuan displacing the petrodollar “in the space of three to five years”, as suggested by Chinese President Xi Jinping in his recent landmark summit with the GCC. 

I have a dream

The profound reverence towards Gen. Soleimani expressed by every layer of Iranian society – from the grassroots to the leadership – has certainly translated into honoring his life’s work by finding Iran’s deserved place in multipolarity. 

Iran is now solidified as one of the key nodes of the New Silk Roads in Southwest Asia. The Iran-China strategic partnership, boosted by Tehran’s accession to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO)in 2002, is as strong geoeconomically and geopolitically as the interlocking partnerships with two other BRICS members, Russia and India. In 2023, Iran is set to become a member of BRICS+.

In parallel, the Iran/Russia/China triad will be deeply involved in the reconstruction of Syria – complete with BRI projects ranging from the Iran-Iraq-Syria-Eastern Mediterranean railway to, in the near future, the Iran-Iraq-Syria gas pipeline, arguably the key factor that provoked the American proxy war against Damascus.

Soleimaniis today revered at the Imam Reza shrine in Mashhad, at the al-Aqsa mosque in Palestine, at the dazzling late baroque Duomo in Ragusa in southeast Sicily, at a stupa high in the Himalayas, or a mural in a street in Caracas.

All across the Global South, there’s a feeling in the air: the new world being born – hopefully, more equal and fair – was somehow dreamed of by the victim of the murder that unleashed the Raging Twenties.

6/GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

Vaccine//Covid issues: Injuries

A must read..

the explanation as to how Ivermectin works against COVID




Ivermectin’s Mechanism Against COVID Described

A health worker shows a box containing a bottle of ivermectin in Cali, Colombia, on July 21, 2020. (Luis Robayo/AFP via Getty Images)

Researching our book—The Courage to Face COVID-19: Preventing Hospitalization and Death While Battling the Bio-Pharmaceutical Complex—was often a distressing and maddening experience. The systematic lying about hydroxychloroquine to suppress its use in the outpatient setting was infuriating. However, for me, the most upsetting stories were about people who died in hospital after being systematically denied ivermectin. The sheer brutality of hospital chiefs and their attorneys, who fought tooth and nail against the administration of ivermectin to dying patients, must surely be the most morally repugnant story in modern medical history.

As we document in our book, Drs. Pierre Kory, Paul Marik, and Tess Lawrie were on the front line of fighting for ivermectin in the hospital setting. Drs. Jean-Jacques and Juliana Cepelowicz Rajter published their seminal (ICON) study in the October 12, 2020 edition of the CHEST journal of pulmonary medicine. The investigative journalists, Michael Capuzzo and Mary Beth Pfeiffer, did a splendid job of covering this story in real time. All of the above are heroic figures of great intellectual and moral discernment to whom we should all be grateful.

Many patients who were fortunate enough to prevail in court and receive ivermectin enjoyed an astonishing improvement of their condition within 24 hours of receiving their first dose—a recovery that struck family members as miraculous.

In listening to their stories, I often asked myself: “How on earth could this substance (macrocyclic lactone)—derived from a bacteria (Streptomyces avermectinius) found in a soil sample on a golf course in Japan—possibly work such miracles?” Truly these testimonies struck me as the most wondrous stories I’d ever heard, and I occasionally asked myself if the recoveries observed were a fluke or the result of some other unknown factors.

To be sure, we already knew from in vitro and from prior studies that ivermectin had demonstrated potent anti-viral activity, but the precise cause of action was unknown. Now, thanks to a study recently published by a research team at MEPHI, Aix-Marseille Université, we have a highly plausible description of ivermectin’s mechanism of action against the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein.

In order to understand this mechanism, the reader must first understand that the SARS-CoV-2 Spike Protein Induces Hemagglutination—i.e., a reaction that causes clumping of red blood cells. A glycoprotein on the viral surface, namely hemagglutinin, interacts with red blood cells, leading to the clumping of red blood cells and the formation of a lattice.

As the Aix-Marseille team documents in their study: IVERMECTIN blocked HEMAGGLUTINATION when added to RED BLOOD CELLS prior to spike protein and reversed HEMAGGLUTINATION when added afterward.

By reversing the clumping of red blood cells, ivermectin enabled the dying patient’s proper respiratory function to return, thereby generating his or her astonishing recovery.

If the Aix-Marsaille team’s findings are correct—and we have no reason to doubt that they are—they provide the final validation and vindication of the dying patients and their families who literally begged for the wonder drug.

SHAME on the hospital administrators and their thuggish attorneys who denied the countless dying wishes. SHAME on the federal health officials who propagated the LIE that Ivermectin was merely a “horse de-wormer.” SHAME on the useful idiot media pundits such as CNN broadcasters and Late-Night Comedy hosts who flooded the zone with this foul lie.

Reposted from the author’s Substack

Views expressed in this article are the opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times. Epoch Health welcomes professional discussion and friendly debate. To submit an opinion piece, please follow these guidelines and submit through our form here.

John Leake

John Leake studied history and philosophy with Roger Scruton at Boston University. He then went to Vienna, Austria on a graduate school scholarship and ended up living in the city for over a decade, working as a freelance writer and translator. He is a true crime writer with a lifelong interest in medical history and forensic medicine.

Dr. Peter A. McCullough

Dr. McCullough is a practicing internist, cardiologist, epidemiologist managing the cardiovascular complications of both the viral infection and the injuries developing after the COVID-19 vaccine in Dallas TX, USA. He has dozens of peer-reviewed publications on the infection, multiple US and State Senate testimonies, and has commented extensively on the medical response to the COVID-19 crisis in TheHill, America Out Loud, NewsMax, and on FOX NEWS Channel.

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Steve Kirsch

special thanks to Robert H for sending this to us:

This Sunday, the Israeli Ministry of Health will admit the COVID vaccine is way more dangerous than they told everyone. DO NOT MISS THIS

Robert Hryniak6:55 AM (38 minutes ago)
to

Trust in government directions on vaccines is over. 

Israel Confirmed Vaxx Harm:


Steve Kirsch provides proof that the Israeli government found serious safety problems with the COVID vaccines back in June 2022, then deliberately covered them up to the detriment of their own people.

Executive Summary
The Israeli Ministry of Health (MoH) was informed by their own hand-selected outside expert group headed by Prof. Mati Berkowitz that the COVID vaccines are not as safe as the MoH had been claiming to the Israeli people. It was just the opposite: instead of mild, short term events, the events were serious and long-lasting… Instead of admitting their mistake, the MoH covered it up by issuing a report that distorted the expert report.

The Key Facts

The Israeli health authority knew the vaccines were harming people: the side effects of the vaccine are neither mild nor short term. In fact, in 65% of the neurological cases that mentioned duration, the symptoms are all on-going.

They also established causality: the side effects were caused by the vaccine. This is something no one else had been able to establish before.

They don’t know how serious the harm is because they only looked at the data for the top five categories. Cardiovascular was #6. So they have only looked at a fraction of the data.

The researchers do not know the prevalence of these serious side effects because they were just provided with the numerator, not the denominator (similar to VAERS).

The Israeli authorities deliberately covered up the safety issues and hid it from the world, issuing a false report essentially saying “there is nothing new to see here folks, move along.”

The only good news in all of this is that Israel protected Palestinians from getting this very unsafe vaccine. That was very humane of the Israelis.

The Israeli people aren’t stupid. They have figured out the vaccines are “unsafe and ineffective”and are no longer complying with government directives to be vaccinated. Just 2.4% of the Israeli population is “in compliance” as of Sept 2, 2022.https://stevekirsch.substack.com/p/this-sunday-the-israeli-ministry

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David Stockman on our failed public health crisis;

(David Stockman)

David Stockman On The Flawed Strategy For A So-Called Public Health Crisis

FRIDAY, JAN 06, 2023 – 06:20 PM

Authored by David Stockman via InternationalMan.com,

The undisputed fact is that the CDC changed rules for causation on death certificates in March 2020, so now we have no idea whatsoever whether the 1.05 million deaths reported to date were deaths because OF Covid or just incidentally were departures from this mortal world WITH Covid. The extensive well-documented cases of hospital DOAs (deaths on arrival) from heart attacks, gunshot wounds, strangulation or motorcycle accidents, which had tested positive before the fatal event or by postmortem, are proof enough.

More importantly, what we do know is that not even the power-drunk apparatchiks at the CDC and other wings of the Federal public health apparatus found a way to change the total mortality counts from all causes.

That’s the smoking gun unless you consider the year 2003 to have been an unbearable year of extraordinary death and societal misery in America. To wit, the age-adjusted death rate from all causes in America during 2020 was actually 1.8% lower than it had been in 2003 and nearly 11% lower than it had been during what has heretofore been understood to be the benign year of 1990!

To be sure, there was a slight elevation of the all-causes mortality rate in 2020 relative to the immediately preceding years. That’s because the Covid did disproportionately and in some ghoulish sense harvest the immunologically vulnerable elderly and co-morbid slightly ahead of the Grim Reaper’s ordinary schedule.

And far worse, there were also extraordinary deaths in 2020 among the less Covid vulnerable population owing to hospitals that were in government ordered turmoil; and also to an undeniable rise in human malfunction among the frightened, isolated, home-bound quarantined, which resulted in a swelling of homicides, suicides and a record level of deaths from drug overdoses (94,000).

Still, the common sense line of sight across this 30-year chart below tells you 1000 times more than the context-free case and death counts which scrolled across America’s TV and computer screens day-in-and-day-out.

It tells you there was no deadly plague; there was no extraordinary public health crisis; and that the Grim Reaper was not stalking the highways and byways of America.

Compared to the pre-Covid norm recorded in 2019, the age-adjusted risk of death in America during 2020 went up from 0.71% to 0.84%. In humanitarian terms, that’s unfortunate but it does not even remotely bespeak a mortal threat to societal function and survival and therefore a justification for the sweeping control measures and suspensions of both liberty and common sense that actually happened.

This fundamental mortality fact—the “science” in bolded letters if there is such a thing—totally invalidates the core notion behind the Fauci policy that was sprung upon our deer-in-the-headlights president stumbling around the Oval Office in early March 2020.

In a word, the abo


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GLOBAL ISSUES;//

PAUL ALEXANDER

BOOM BOOM! Dr. Mike Yeadon hammers it home again! This is for you Damar, for you & all who have taken these fraud COVID gene injections & no