HomeJAN 10//GOLD CLOSED UP $1.00 TO $1874.00//SILVER CLOSED DOWN 21 CENTS AS...
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JAN 10//GOLD CLOSED UP $1.00 TO $1874.00//SILVER CLOSED DOWN 21 CENTS AS THE BANKERS ARE DESPERATELY TRYING TO MAINTAIN THEIR SHACKLES ON THESE TWO KEY PRECIOUS METALS//PLATINUM IS DOWN $8.40 TO $1081.15/PALLADIUM IS DOWN ANOTHER $13.20 TO $1776.35 AND THUS THE RATIO OF PRICE ON PLATINUM/PALLADIUM CONTINUES TO RISE//COVID UPDATES: DR PAUL ALEXANDER: MUST READS TODAY/VACCINE IMPACT/SLAY NEWS//MORE ON GOTTLIEB’S CENSORSHIP ON THE PFIZER VACCINE//MUST READS: TED BUTLER AND EGON VON GREYERZ//USA DATA: CREDIT CARD DEBT HITS ALL TIME HIGHS//INTERESTING CLASSIFIED DOCUMENTS FOUND IN BIDEN’S PENNSYLVANIA SANCTUARY (THESE DOCUMENTS WERE FROM HIS TENURE AS VICE PRESIDENT AND HE CANNOT DECLASSIFY THEM)//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//
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118 C MACQUARIE FUT 3 435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 1 661 C JP MORGAN 7 732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 1 737 C ADVANTAGE 7 4 800 C MAREX SPEC 2 880 C CITIGROUP 5
TOTAL: 15 15
JPM received 1/19 contracts (stopped)
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GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR JAN/2023. CONTRACT: 15 NOTICES FOR 1500 OZ or 0.0466 TONNES
total notices so far: 758 contracts for 75800 oz (2.3576 tonnes)
SILVER NOTICES: 1 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 5,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month 816 for 4,080,000 oz
END
GLD
WITH GOLD UP $1.00
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:
INVENTORY RESTS AT 915/33 TONNES
Silver//SLV
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS
AT THE SLV// :/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV
CLOSING INVENTORY: 509.65 MILLION OZ (THIS IS ALSO A CRIME SCENE@!!!!
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 352 CONTRACTS TO 132,893 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR $0.09 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON MONDAY. FOR THE PAST WEEK, OUR BANKERS HAVE RETURNED TO BEING NET SHORT AND THUS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.09 BUT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPEC LONGS, AS WE HAD A GOOD GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 475 CONTRACTS. AS WELL WE HAD A ZERO OZ OF AN EXCHANGE FOR RISK TRANSFER ( 0 CONTRACTS). WE HAVE FINISHED WITH OUR SPEC SHORTS AS THEY COVERED WITH THE RISE IN PRICE . WE HAVE NOW RETURNED TO OUR USUAL AND CUSTOMARY: BANKERS SHORT AND SPECS LONG SCENARIO.
WE MUST HAVE HAD: A SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 4,055. MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE. JUMP OF 5,000 OZ//NEW STANDING 4.175 MILLION OZ // V) GOOD SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/ SMALL EFP ISSUANCE/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL –50
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS JAN. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF JAN:
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 6 days, total 3133 contracts: OR 15.665 MILLION OZ PER DAY. (522 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 15.665 MILLION OZ
.
LAST 17 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH: 207.430 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
JAN 2023/// 15.665 MILLION OZ
RESULT: WE HAD A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 352 DESPITE OUR $0.09 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// MONDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 50 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR MAR AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JAN OF 4.055 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 5,000 / //NEW STANDING INCREASES TO 4.150 MILLION OZ + EFR 2.5 MILLION = 6.675 MILLION OZ. .. WE HAVE A GOOD SIZED GAIN OF 402OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 2.01 MILLION OZ.. THE SILVER SHORTS HAVE BEEN HURT BADLY WITH SILVER’S RISE.
WE HAD 1 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 5,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A VERY STRONG SIZED 13,102 CONTRACTS TO 476,332 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED 629 CONTRACTS.
.
THE STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI (13,102 CONTRACTS) CAME WITH OUR STRONG $8.60 GAIN IN PRICE. WE ALSO HAD A SMALL INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR JAN. AT 2.1710 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 25 CONTRACTS OR 2500 OZ //(QUEUE JUMPING = EXERCISING LONDON BASED EFP’S ) (EFP is the transfer of contracts immediately to London for potential gold deliveries originating from London). NEW STANDING 2.5069 TONNES
YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR HUGE $8.60 GAIN IN PRICEWITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING
WE HAD A GIGANTIC SIZED GAIN OF 14,876 OI CONTRACTS (46.277 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 1774 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 476,352
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A GIGANTIC SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 14,876 CONTRACTS WITH 13,102 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 1774 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 14,876 CONTRACTS OR 46.27 TONNES.
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (1774 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (13,102) TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 14,876 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR NORMAL FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING SHORT AND SPECULATORS GOING LONG ,2.) SMALL INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR JAN. AT 2.1710 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2500 OZ /NEW STANDING 2.5069 TONNES///3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION //.,4) VERY STRONG SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER/
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY
JAN
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JAN :
16,337 CONTRACTS OR 1,633,700 OZ OR 48,227 TONNES 6 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2722 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 6 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES:48.227 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2021, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 48.227/3550 x 100% TONNES 1,35% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH: 409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247,44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
JAN 2023: 48.227 TONNES INITIAL
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF FEB. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF BOTH GOLD (
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR BOTH GOLD:
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (NOV), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 352 CONTRACTS OI TO 132,893 AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO.
EFP ISSUANCE 50 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
MAR 50 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 50 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 352 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 50 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN A GOOD GAIN OF 402 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 2.01 MILLION OZ//
OCCURRED DESPITE OUR 9 CENT LOSS IN PRICE ….. OUR SPEC SHORTS HAVE NOWHERE TO HIDE!
4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
end
5. Other gold/silver commentaries
6. Commodity commentaries//CORN
7/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
3. ASIAN AFFAIRS
i)TUESDAY MORNING//MONDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 6.58 PTS OR0.21% //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 56.85 PTS OR 0.27% /The Nikkei closed UP 201/71 PTS OR .78% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.26% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN TO 6.7814//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN TO 6.7979// /Oil DOWN TO 75.02 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 79.88 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 C CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 13,102 CONTRACTS UP TO 476,352 WITH OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF $8.60
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE NON-ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JAN… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 1774 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: ;: , . 0 FEB: 1774 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1774 CONTRACTS
WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION, EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A GIGANTIC SIZED TOTAL OF 14,876 CONTRACTS IN THAT 1774 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A STRONG SIZED COMEX OI GAIN OF 13,102 CONTRACTS..AND THIS GIGANTIC SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $8.60. WE ARE NOW WITNESSING THE BANKERS GOING NET SHORT AND THE SPECS GOING NET LONG AS THEIR FOLLY INTO SHORTING HAS ENDED.
// WE HAVE A SMALL AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING Jan (2.5069)
TONNES),
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL (TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR 591.535 TONNES)
Dec. 64.541 tonnes
JAN/2023: 2.5069 tonnes
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE $8.60) //// AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A GIGANTIC GAIN OF 14,876 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES // WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 48.227 PAPER TONNES OF TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JAN. (2.1710 TONNES) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2500 oz OR .0777 TONNES…THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR RISE IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $8.60.
WE HAD – 629 CONTRACTS COMEX TRADES REMOVED FROM OPEN INTEREST AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 14,876 CONTRACTS OR 1,487,600 OZ OR 46.277 TONNES
Estimated gold comex today 210,618// fair//
final gold volumes/yesterday 265,660/ fair
INITIAL STANDINGS FOR JAN 2023 COMEX GOLD //JAN 10//
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
758 notices 75800 2.3576 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
xxx oz
i)Dealer deposits: 0
total dealer deposit: nil oz
No dealer withdrawals
Customer deposits: 1
i)Into Brinks: 883.065 oz
total deposits: 883,065 oz
customer withdrawals: 1
i) Out of Malca: 883.065 oz)
Total withdrawals: 883.065 oz
total in tonnes: 0.027467 tonnes
Adjustments:0
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JANUARY.
For the front month of JANUARY we have an oi of 63 contracts having GAINED 6 contracts
We had 19 notices served on Monday, so we gained 25 contracts or an additional 2500 oz will stand for delivery in this
very non active delivery month of January. (queue jump)
February lost 20,189 contacts to 340,883
March gained 29 contracts to stand at 548.
April gained 30,066 contracts up to 96,206.
We had 19 notice(s) filed today for 1900 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 15 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 7 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JAN. /2022. contract month,
we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (758 x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of (JAN. 63 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 15 x 100 oz per contract equals 80,600 OZ OR 2.5069 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this non active month of January.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JAN contract month:
No of notices filed so far (758 x 100 oz+ (63 OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (15} x 100 oz} which equals 80,600 oz standing OR 2.5069 TONNES in this NON active delivery month of JAN..
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 2.5069 TONNES (A POOR STANDING//COMEX RUNNING OUT OF PHYSICAL TO SERVE UPON OUR LONGS.
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JANUARY. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 816 x 5,000 oz = 4,080,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JAN(20) and the number of notices served upon today 1 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the JAN./2023 contract month: 816 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of JAN (20 – number of notices served upon today (1) x 500 oz of silver standing for the JAN. contract month equates 4.150 million oz + 2.5 MILLION OZ OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK
the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
JAN 10/WITH GOLD UP $1.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.33 TONNES
JAN 9/WITH GOLD UP $ 8.60 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES FROM THE GLD//.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.33 TONNES
JAN 6/WITH GOLD UP $28.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.77 TONNES
JAN 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.05 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES FORM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.77 TONNES
JANUARY 4/WITH GOLD UP $32.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.64 TONNES
JAN 3/WITH GOLD UP $20.00 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:STRANGE: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES FORM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.64 TONNES
DEC 30/WITH GOLD UP $.80 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.51 TONNES
DEC 29//WITH GOLD UP $8.35 TODAY:; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.51 TONNES
DEC 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.80 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 5.50 TONNES INTO THE GLD..//INVENTORY REST S AT 918.51 TONNES
DEC 27/WITH GOLD UP $18.15 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.01 TONNES
DEC 23/WITH GOLD UP $19,15 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.88 TONNES/
DEC 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $29.35 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.88 TONNES
DEC 21/WITH GOLD FLAT TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.88 TONNES
DEC 20/WITH GOLD UP $27.05: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.73 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.14 TONNES
DEC 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.10: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD> A BIG WITHDRAWAL OF 3.47 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 910.41 TONNES
DEC 16/WITH GOLD UP $12.45: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.32 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.88 TONNES
DEC 15//WITH GOLD DOWN $31.00: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 911.56 TONNES
DEC 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.20: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.32 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.72 TONNES
DEC 13/WITH GOLD UP $32.75: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.32 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 910.41
DEC 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.60: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.09 TONNES
DEC 9/WITH GOLD UP $8.90//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.09 TONNES
Dec 8/WITH GOLD UP $4.05, OVER THE PAST 3 WEEKS WE LOST 2.04 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.09 TONNES
NOV 14/WITH GOLD UP $7.30: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 910.12 TONNES
NOV 11/WITH GOLD UP $15.25//BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.19 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 911.57 TONNES
NOV 10/WITH GOLD UP $40.75: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.38 TONNES
NOV 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.89 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.38 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 915.33 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
JAN 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.65 MILLION OZ
JAN 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.65 MILLION OZ//
JAN 6/WITH SILVER UP 54 CENTS TODAY;BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 4.20 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.65 MILLION OZ//
JAN 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 50 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.10 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 505.45 MILLION OZ//
JAN 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 26 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.3 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 506.55 MILLION OZ/
JAN 3/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: STRANGE: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.2 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 507.85 MILLION OZ/
DEC 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.050 MILLION OZ
DEC 29/ WITH SILVER UP $0.63 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.050 MILLION OZ
DEC 28//WITH SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.715 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///..INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.050 MILLION OZ
DEC 27/WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/A WITHDRAWAL OF 550,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 507.350 MILLION OZ//
DEC 23/WITH SILVER UP 29 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT507.900 MILLION O//
DEC 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 53 CENTS TODAY;NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 507.90 MILLION OZ//
DEC 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.0 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 507.90 MILLION OZ//
DEC 20/WITH SILVER UP 105 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:: A DEPOSIT OF 700,000 OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.90 MILLION OZ//
DEC 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.05 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.20 MILLION OZ//
DEC 16/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.85 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 508.15 MILLION OZ//
DEC 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 78 CENTS: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF EXACTLY 2.00 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 510.000 MILLION OZ
DEC 14/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.7 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 512.000 MILLION OZ//
DEC 13/WITH SILVER UP 59 CENTS: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 600,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 513.900 MILLION OZ//
DEC 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 33 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.500 MILLION OZ//
DEC 9/WITH SILVER RISING 77 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.2 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.500 MILLION OZ.
DEC 8/WITH SILVER RISING 34 CENTS TODAY: OVER THE PAST 3 WEEKS, WE HAVE GAINED A STRONG: 44.777 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 516.700 MILION OZ.
NOV 14/WITH SILVER UP 41 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.923 MILLION OZ//
NOV 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 553,000 OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.923 MILLION OZ//
NOV 10/WITH SILVER UP 39 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 368,000 OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.476 MILLION OZ//
NOV 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/; A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.821 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.108 MILLION OZ//
CLOSING INVENTORY 509.65 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
1:Peter Schiff
“The Fed Should Be Irrelevant” – Peter Schiff Warns It’s “Not How Capitalism Is Supposed To Work”
Peter Schiff, chief economist and global strategist of Euro Pacific Asset Management, is famous for his bearish takes. A falling stock market, a deep recession, and a sovereign debt crisis were among his predictions in the past.
As the first trading week in January came to a close, The Epoch Times sat down with Schiff to get his outlook for the new year. According to the libertarian economist, the outlook is grim and driven by two factors: inflation and the Federal Reserve.
“The last couple of times the Fed was able to orchestrate a pivot, it did it when inflation was 2 percent or less,” he told The Epoch Times. “Pivot” refers to the moment when the Federal Reserve stops hiking interest rates and begins cutting them again, historically done in response to severe financial stress.
Since the mid-1980s, monetary-easing cycles have been in low-inflation environments. With the Consumer Price Index (CPI) still above 7 percent, what happens if the Fed pivots now?
”They are throwing gasoline on the fire,” Schiff warned.
“High inflation gets even higher, and in that environment, I don’t see financial assets as a group doing well.”
“I think bonds get killed.”
In addition, Schiff sees companies with high price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios that do not turn a profit—typically referred to as growth stocks—will not be able to keep up with inflation, given their lack of pricing power.
“That’s important in an inflationary environment. You have to be able to raise your prices without destroying your sales.”
This could spell bad news for many unprofitable tech companies that rely on advertising revenue, because many advertisers will likely slash marketing budgets in the coming recession, Schiff said. Investors may shift their focus to less flashy companies with a steady revenue stream.
“If money is losing value much faster than 2 percent a year, you don’t want to wait 10–20 years to get your money,” he said.
“It’s not companies that are promising earnings in the future. It’s companies that have earnings right now.”
Like Warren Buffett, Schiff considers himself a value investor, meaning he invests in companies with a proven track record of profitability and a robust customer base. High inflation will wear down the consumers’ discretionary income, making it difficult for many businesses to maintain revenue.
“If your customers are spending a lot more money on food, on energy, on insurance, on rent, on taxes, and they have nothing left over, then it doesn’t even matter if you cut your prices. You don’t have any customers.”
Schiff laid the blame for the economic doom to come at the doorstep of the Federal Reserve. By distorting financial markets and the value of money, “the Federal Reserve has turned the market into a casino,” he said.
“It’s really helped undermine the productivity of the American economy, which is one of the reasons we have huge trade deficits.”
Many investors and wealth managers today structure their investment theses around trying to predict the Fed’s monetary policy. According to Schiff, this undermines the purpose of a stock market, which is to provide companies with much needed capital.
“The Fed should be irrelevant. Nobody should be making investment decisions based on the Fed. Right now, the Fed is the only thing anybody cares about. ‘Are they going to raise rates? By how much?’”
“Everything is riding on the decision of a few guys sitting in a room in Washington, D.C. That’s not how capitalism is supposed to work.”
Schiff questioned the sanity of such a system. “They decide the price of money. They decide the quantity of money. Why?”
“That makes no more sense than putting together a bureau to decide the price of oil, or the price of milk, or the price of bread … That’s what the Soviet Union used to do, and it was a disaster.”
2 Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz//Rickards:
OMINOUS MILITARY and FINANCIAL NUCLEAR THREATS COULD ERUPT IN 2023
Egon von Greyerz January 10, 2023
The world is today confronted with two nuclear threats of a proportion never previously seen in history. These threats are facing us at a time when the world economy is about to turn and decline precipitously not just for years but probably decades.
The obvious nuclear threat is the war between the US and Russia which currently is playing out in Ukraine.
The other nuclear threat is the financial weapons of mass destruction in the form of debt and derivatives amounting to probably US$ 2.5 quadrillion.
If we are lucky, the geopolitical event can be avoided but I doubt that the explosion/implosion of the Western financial timebomb can be stopped.
More about these risks later in the article.
There is also a summary of my market views for 2023 and onwards at the end of the article.
CURIOSITY AND RISK
With a business life of over 52 years in banking, commerce and investments, I am fortunate to still learn every day and learning is really the joy of life. But the more you learn, the more you realise how little you really know.
Being a constant and curious learner means that life is never dull.
As Einstein said:
“The important thing is not to stop questioning.
Curiosity has its own reason for existing.”
There has been another important constancy in my life which is understanding and protecting RISK.
I learnt early on in my commercial life that it is critical to identify risk and endeavour to protect the downside. If you can achieve that, the upside normally takes care of itself.
Sometimes the risk is so clear that you want to stand on the barricades and shout. But sadly most investors are driven by greed and seldom see when markets become high risk.
The end of the 1980s was such an obvious period, especially in the property market. Stocks crashed in 1987 but if you are not leveraged, stock crashes normally don’t wipe you out. But in commercial property the leverage can kill a lot of investors and sadly did in the early 1990s.
The end of the 1990s was another period of very high risk in the tech sector. I was involved with a tech business in the UK and told the founder in late 1999 that we must sell the business for cash. This was the time when tech businesses were valued at 10x sales. Virtually none of them made a profit. So we managed to sell the business in 2000. We actually got shares as payment but were allowed to sell them immediately which we did. Thereafter the Nasdaq crashed by 80% and many businesses went bankrupt.
At those particular moments of extreme overvaluation, you do not have to be clever in order to get out and take profit. Super profits should always be realised when the valuation of businesses doesn’t make sense and the prospects don’t look good.
RISK OF MAJOR ESCALATION OF WAR
So let’s get back to the massive risks that are hanging over the world currently.
In my estimation this is not a war between Russia and Ukraine but between the US and Russia. Russia found it unacceptable that the Minsk agreement of 2014 was not kept to. Instead, the bombing of the Donbas area continued, allegedly encouraged by the US. As Ukraine intensified the bombing, Russia invaded in Feb 2022.
I won’t go into the details here of who is at fault etc. But what is clear is that the US Neocons have a major interest for this war to escalate. For them Ukraine is just a pawn and the real enemy is Russia. Why would the US otherwise lead the initiative to sanction Russia and send weapons and money to Ukraine but send no peace keepers to Russia?
Let us just remind ourselves that ordinary people never want war. The American people doesn’t want war, nor do the Russians or Ukrainians. It is without fail always the leaders who want war. And in most countries, even in the so called democratic USA, the leaders have total power when it comes to starting a war.
Most of Europe is heavily dependent on Russian oil and gas. Still Europe is shooting itself in the foot by agreeing to the sanctions initiated by the US. The consequences are disastrous for Europe and especially Germany which was the economic engine of Europe. Germany is now finished as an economic power. Time will prove this.
The global economic downturn started before the Ukrainian war but the situation has now severely deteriorated with the European economy weakening rapidly. Still, Europe is digging its own grave by sending more weapons and more money to Ukraine much of which being reported to end up in the wrong hands.
The Ukrainian leader Zelensky is skillfully inciting the West to escalate the war in order to achieve total NATO involvement.
The risk of a major escalation of the war is considerable. Russia’s main aim is for the Minsk agreement to be honoured whilst the US Neocons want to weaken Russia in a direct conflict. Major wars are often triggered by a minor event or a false flag.
The Neocons know that a defeat for the US in this conflict would be the end of the US dollar, hegemony and economy. At the same time, Russia is determined not to lose the war, whatever it takes. This is the kind of background that has a high risk of ending badly.
THE CONSEQUENCES ARE UNTHINKABLE
Since there is not a single Statesman in the West, dark forces behind the scenes are pulling the strings. This makes the situation particularly dangerous.
The risk of a nuclear war in such a situation is incalculable but still very real.
There are 13,000 nuclear warheads in the world and less than a handful of these would wipe out most of the West and a dozen, a major part of the world.
Let’s hope that the West comes to its senses. If not, the consequences are unthinkable.
FINANCIAL WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION
The other nuclear cloud which is financial will fortunately not end the world if it detonates but inflict a major global setback that could last many years, maybe decades.
This can be illustrated in a number of pictures so let us look at two self explanatory graphs.
The first one shows how global debt has grown 75X from $4 trillion to $300T since Nixon closed the gold window in 1971.
The graph also shows that the world could reach debt levels of maybe $3 quadrillion by 2030. That sounds like a sensational figure but the explanation is simple. Derivatives were around $1.4 quadrillion over 10 years ago as reported by the Bank of International Settlement (BIS) in Basel. But with some hocus-pocus they reduced the figure to $600 trillion to make it look better cosmetically. The BIS decided just to take just one side of a contract as the outstanding risk. But we all know, it is the gross risk that counts. When a counterparty fails, gross risk remains gross. So as far as I am concerned, the old base figure was still $1.4Q.
Since then derivatives have grown exponentially. Major amounts of debt are now created in the derivatives market rather then in the cash market. Also, the shadow banking system of hedge funds, insurance companies and other financial business are also major issuers of derivatives. Many of these transactions are not in the BIS figures. Thus I believe it is realistic to assume that the derivatives market has grown at least in line with debt but probably a lot faster in the last 10+ years. So the gross figure is easily in excess of $2 quadrillion today.
When the debt crisis starts in earnest which could be today or in the next 2-3 years, major defaults in derivatives will become debt as central banks print money on an unprecedented scale in a futile attempt to save the financial system. This is how debt can grow to $3Q by 2030 as the graph illustrates.
US GDP GROWTH IS ILLUSORY
The second graph shows that the US, the world’s biggest economy, is living on both borrowed time and money.
In 1970 total US debt was 1.5X GDP. Today is is 3.6X. This means that in order to achieve a nominal growth in GDP, debt had to grow 2.5X as fast as GDP.
The conclusion is simple. Without credit and printed money there would be no real GDP growth. So the growth of the US economy is an illusion manufactured by bankers and led by the private Federal Reserve Bank. As the graph above shows, GDP can only grow if debt grows at an exponential rate.
The gap between debt and GDP growth is clearly unsustainable. Still with hysterical money printing in the next few years, in an attempt to save the US financial system, the gap is likely to widen even further before it is eroded.
There is only one way for the gap to narrow which is an implosion of the debt through default, both sovereign and private. Such an implosion will also lead to all assets inflated by the debt – including bonds, stocks and property – also imploding.
Temporarily the US has achieved this illusory wealth but sadly the time is now coming when the Piper must be paid.
END
3. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries//
Finally mining shares are showing their leverage to the price of gold
(Brien Lundin0
Brien Lundin: As gold rises, mining shares are showing leverage to the price
Submitted by admin on Mon, 2023-01-09 13:13Section: Daily Dispatches
By Brien Lundin Gold Newsletter / Golden Opportunities Metairie, Louisiana Monday, January 9, 2023
In a Golden Opportunities letter last week, I resorted to my oft-used “Happy New Year” headline to highlight yet another early-year gold rally.
As I noted in that issue, gold often bottoms in mid-December and continues to rally well into a new year.
It doesn’t always happen that way, of course, but this year it has played out largely to script. The big difference this year is that gold didn’t decline into December but bottomed in early November.
In fact, gold is up fully $200 since the lows in early November. This is a great thing but, as I also noted last week, you wouldn’t know it from the dour outlooks being professed by gold bugs in every corner of the internet.
Moreover, many of these gold watchers are bemoaning the fact that, even if gold has been climbing, the gold stocks have refused to respond.
Why Jan believes that gold will finally rise into a bull market
(Jan Nieuwenjuijs//Koos Jansen)
Jan Nieuwenhuijs: Zoltan Pozsar, the four prices of money, and the coming gold bull market
Submitted by admin on Mon, 2023-01-09 17:23Section: Daily Dispatches
By Jan Nieuwenhuijs Gainsville Coins, Lutz, Florida Monday, January 9, 2023
Over the past 100 years there has been a correlation between major equity bear markets, adjustments in one of the four “prices of money,” and gold bull markets. If we let history be our guide, the current equity bear market is signaling a new gold bull market, supported by changes in the price of money.
One of the more intriguing financial analysts of our times is Zoltan Pozsar, managing director and global head of short-term interest rate strategy at Credit Suisse. In his writings in the past months, one of the things that caught my attention was his framework for multiple prices of money.
Remarkably, when I looked up big historical changes in the price of the U.S. dollar, they usually succeeded equity bear markets and introduced gold bull markets.
Because equities are in a bear market as we speak, we can expect a gold bull market in the years ahead, enabled by the Federal Reserve changing the price of money.
First let’s see how changes in the price of the dollar have caused gold bull markets in the past 100 years. Then we will add the stock market. …
Submitted by admin on Mon, 2023-01-09 19:38Section: Daily Dispatches
By Ted Butler Monday, January 9, 2023
For the first holiday-shortened trading week of the new year, gold turned in a very strong performance, ending higher by $40 (2.2%) while a late-day rally yesterday only resulted in silver narrowing its losses for the week to 18 cents (-0.7%).
As a result of silver’s extreme relative underperformance, the silver/gold price ratio widened out by just over two full points to 78 to 1.
As far as trying to explain the surge in gold prices and silver’s failure to keep up over these past few days, let’s start with the obvious — namely, no one was selling long-term physical silver to convert to gold.
Gold and silver prices are set by manipulative paper positioning on the Comex, so look no further for explanations. As I have warned of late, we must gird ourselves for deliberate manipulative smackdowns, such as seen this week in silver (complete with middle-of-the-night non-economic price stabs to the downside). …
(Special note – I hadn’t planned to publish this article to subscribers I sent as part of my twice-weekly subscription service ($34.95 per month), but a most trusted advisor, Jim Cook from Investment Rarities, Inc., strongly suggested I do so. Since Cook has never failed to provide solid advice for more than 20 years, I can’t cast his advice aside).
For the first holiday-shortened trading week of the New Year, gold turned in a very strong performance, ending higher by $40 (2.2%), while a late day rally yesterday only resulted in silver narrowing its losses for the week to 18 cents (-0.7%). As a result of silver’s extreme relative underperformance, the silver/gold price ratio widened out by just over two full points to 78 to 1.
As far as trying to explain the surge in gold prices and silver’s failure to keep up over these past few days, let’s start with the obvious, namely, no one was selling long-tern physical silver to convert to gold. Gold and silver prices are set by manipulative paper positioning on the COMEX, so look no further for explanations. As I have warned of late, we must gird ourselves for deliberate manipulative smack downs, such as seen this week in silver (complete with middle-of-the-night non-economic price stabs to the downside).
However, this takes nothing away from the surge in gold prices, where the recent changes in COMEX market structure and the still-extraordinary developments in the Bank Participation report, now including yesterday’s new release for positions held through Jan 3, still point to a “sea change” in the positioning of the banks. The fact is that the positioning on the COMEX was more bullish in gold than in silver.
Importantly, even though gold closed at six-month price highs on first day of trading of the new year and the cutoff day for yesterday’s COT and Bank Participation reports, the deterioration (managed money buying and commercial selling) feared failed to materialize and, essentially, didn’t exist at all in silver. Gold is now higher by $250 from the lows of early November and another $200 from here will put us at all-time highs and it’s still my impression that many don’t trust the current move higher (climbing a wall of worry). Same with silver. That’s music to a contrarian’s ears.
Let me run through the usual weekly format before turning attention to yesterday’s COT and Bank Participation reports. I did get an email from a subscriber shortly after the reports were published who asked, not about the details of the Bank Participation report, which he knew I would cover today, but just to give him a “thumbs up” or “thumbs down” on whether the report coincided with my recent conclusion of a serious and highly encouraging change in bank shorting. My answer to Greg was “thumbs up”.
The turnover or physical movement of metal either brought into or removed from the COMEX-approved silver warehouses snapped back sharply from last week’s subdued movement, despite this being another 4-day work week. This week, some 7.8 million oz were physically moved and total COMEX silver warehouse holdings rose by 1.6 million oz to 300.6 million oz. Holdings in the JPMorgan COMEX warehouse rose by a much-sharper 3.4 million oz to 152.8 million oz.
I know I have devoted much time discussing the extraordinary physical movement of silver in the COMEX warehouses, both recently and over the past near 12 years, but I also know this is an issue not widely appreciated. Truth be told, I count that as a personal failure of me not being able to communicate an issue that I have come to believe is every bit as important as to whether the big banks step aside in adding aggressively to short positions should this rally continue.
One thing that I believe is near universally-accepted by most proponents of silver is that when the physical shortage reaches the point where its existence can no longer be hidden or managed, that will be the point at which prices can no longer be contained by manipulative paper positioning on the COMEX, as has occurred for 40 years. It has recently occurred to me that the extraordinarily large COMEX silver warehouse inventory turnover – a phenomenon that exists in no other commodity – is the purest sign possible that the physical shortage is very close at hand and it frustrates the heck out of me that I have been unable to convey that.
My dear departed friend and silver mentor, Izzy Friedman, always referred to this point as the “moment of true”, as the certainty of too low of a price not causing a physical shortage at some point was impossible. Yet, aside from that basic truth, there was little to go on as indicating how close we might be to that moment. The start of the highly unusual physical movement of silver into and out from the COMEX warehouses began close to 12 years ago, almost precisely at the time Izzy no longer followed silver, so I have been left to ponder the meaning of the physical movement without the benefit of my mentor’s wisdom and input.
That said, let me state it this way – I believe the extraordinary physical turnover in the COMEX silver warehouses is the surest possible sign anyone could ever get in advance that the physical shortage is close at hand. I know that it has been 12 years since this physical movement began, so who the heck am I to suggest it is signaling we are close to the point where the silver shortage will soon be highly visible and unmanageable? I’d answer that, taken together with all the extraordinary developments over this time, from JPMorgan accumulating a billion oz silver and 30 million oz (maybe more) gold physical position, to then settling with the DOJ and double crossing its fellow big COMEX shorts, to more things than I can recite here. It’s the totality of the issues.
I would point out that it has been nearly three months where total COMEX silver warehouse inventories, after declining sharply over the two prior years (by as much as 100 million oz), have now hovered around the 300 million oz level. Yet, the turnover persists. Without getting too deep into the weeds, this suggests to me that we may be actually at the point where only new stuff brought in can satisfy new demands for physical silver – and where the silver in the warehouses are owned by those not interested in selling. Yes, this is very speculative on my part and it could easily turn out we’re not as close as I suggest. But would anyone prefer I hide my thoughts and only after the physical silver shortage becomes highly visible, then say it was on my mind?
The flows of physical metal continued to be steady in the gold ETFs, and this week, flows of physical metal into SLV, the big silver ETF, turned positive, to the tune of 1.5 million oz, as a result of last night’s near 3 million oz deposit. Even if the deposit was designed to reduce the short position , as I suspect, it won’t be reflected in Wednesday’s new short report, but I won’t be able to discuss it until the next weekly review (since the report comes out late that day). Should there be a sharp increase in the short position on SLV, I do plan to complain anew to the SEC and BlackRock.
Turning to yesterday’s reports, let me deal with the Commitments of Traders (COT) report first. Since gold did close at its highest price point in six months on the cutoff on heavy trading volume (silver surged initially that day, but sold off pretty sharply into the close), it was not unreasonable to fear significant deterioration. Fortunately, that did not turn out to be the case.
In COMEX gold futures, the commercials increased their total net short position by 6200 contracts to 160,000 contracts. While this is the largest total commercial short position in six months, it still does not look excessive. There’s no way gold could rise more than $200 without market structure deterioration, much like there’s no way to make an omelet without cracking some eggs. Moreover, the changes by commercial categories weren’t alarming.
The 4 biggest commercial shorts added 2700 new shorts to a short position now at 130,324 contracts (13 million oz), and the next largest 5 thru 8 shorts added 800 more shorts, bringing the big 8 short position to 211,215 contracts (21.1 million oz). The raptors (the smaller commercials apart from the big 8) sold off 2700 long contracts, reducing their net long position to 51,200 contracts – still a very large net long position.
On the buy side of gold, the managed money traders were net buyers of 3704 contracts, consisting of the purchase of 2157 new longs and the buyback and covering of 1547 shorts. Given the price action, the managed money buying was quite muted and adds to my previous point of how unloved or disbelieved in the rally in gold has been so far. The net managed money long position is now 54,581 contracts (109,140 longs versus 54,559 shorts), up from the net short position of a few months back, but nowhere near close to the dangerously-large net long positions of the past.
I’m starting to think, if the former big COMEX commercial shorts (the banks) are as devious as I believe them to be and they continue to refrain from adding aggressively to short positions, aside from continued raptor long liquidation, that the big managed money longs may wind up missing a major portion of a big gold rally.
Explaining the difference between what the commercial sold and the managed money traders bought was some net buying by the other large reporting traders and the smaller non-reporting traders – but keep in mind that there wasn’t significant positioning in this report.
In COMEX silver futures, the commercials increased their total net short position by a scant 1300 contracts, to 44,200 contracts. Actually, there was no new shorting, as the raptors sold off 1300 longs, in reducing their net long position to 22,100 contracts. The 4 big silver shorts bought back 100 shorts and held 44,085 shorts (220 million oz), while the big 5 thru 8 added 100 shorts, leaving the big 8 short position unchanged at 66,259 contracts (331 million oz). In this case, watching paint dry was good.
The managed money traders in silver actually sold 1039 net contracts, consisting of the purchase of 1907 new longs and the new short sale of 2946 contracts. The net managed money long position contracted a bit to 27,777 contracts (46,929 longs versus 19,152 shorts) – always good news. Both the other large reporting traders and smaller non-reporting traders were net buyers, mostly via short covering.
Turning to the new Bank Participation report, this month’s report featured a reversal of sorts from the prior report, in that the relative lack of bank selling was more pronounced in silver, whereas it was in gold in the prior report. From Dec 6 to Jan 3, while the total commercial net short position in gold increased by roughly 30,000 contracts, the banks in the BPR only accounted for 13,000 contracts of the selling, with non-banks (a variety of swap dealers), accounted for the balance of 17,000 contracts. A s a reminder, the price of gold rose about $80 over this time.
Looking back from the BPR as of Nov 1, the total commercial net short position in gold increased by 85,000 contracts to Jan 3, as gold prices rose by $200, and the portion of total commercial selling by banks was 30,000 contracts, compared to non-bank commercial selling of 55,000 contracts. This is about the smallest bank selling in memory.
Thus, the “thumbs up” as far as my tentative conclusion of a sea change in bank shorting. Of course, I suppose the banks could come onto the short side at higher prices, so nothing is written in stone at this point. But let me run through silver first, before I offer yet another speculative conclusion worthy of the Twilight Zone.
From Dec 6 to Jan 3, the total commercial net short position in COMEX silver increased by 12,000 contracts, as prices rose more than $2. Yet, the banks accounted for less than 2000 contracts of that selling. From Nov 1 to Jan 3, the total commercial short position in COMEX silver increased by 34,000 contracts on a rally of more than $5. Yet the banks only accounted for little more than 10,000 contracts of the selling, with non-bank commercials (swap dealers) making up the vast bulk of commercial selling. Unusual, to say the least, and to this point, very much in sticking to my sea change premise.
Having acknowledged that all of this could be but a brief respite from the 40-year COMEX price manipulation, should the banks return to the short side in an aggressive manner, let me lay out a very different scenario that might border on fantasy to many. Here, I have to repeat that when I look at silver (and gold), I consider absolutely none of the things that many put into their mix – things like inflation, interest rates, the economy, the stock market, the real estate market, the fate of the ongoing horrific war in Ukraine or the political circus I can’t seem to escape.
Don’t take me wrong, all these things are important to me (and everyone else) to some degree as a citizen and fellow traveler of this journey we’re all on. But even if I, or anyone could predict the course of inflation, interest rates, etc., over the next year or so, when it comes to silver and gold, none of these things matter in the least. One doesn’t have to look further than the record changes in inflation and interest rates this year compared to flat gold and silver performance. I’ve spent too much of my life learning all these things don’t amount to squat in making any difference to the price of silver and gold. The only thing that matters is the state of the COMEX price manipulation; as in, does it continue or not.
I’ve laid out the critical factor of will the big commercials add aggressively to short positions on rallies too many times (and being wrong in guessing that they won’t), so that I don’t need to explain why I’m so excited about the recent evidence in the COT and Bank Participation reports that the banks have been hanging back in adding shorts to this point. I further believe they may have very good reason for hanging back. I think it’s directly connected to incredible physical turnover in the COMEX silver warehouses, despite my inability to convey convincingly my argument.
I believe the decades of silver price suppression (nowhere near as evident in gold or any other commodity) has achieved one of the strongest dictates of the law of supply and demand, namely, in any consumable commodity, any prolonged and artificial price suppression must eventually end in a physical shortage or the inability of current supply to satisfy current demand. This is more sacrosanct and immutable than any of the teachings of the world’s great religions. The problem in silver, as opposed to any other commodity, is that enormous stockpiles of metal accumulated over time; so much so that it was impossible to know in advance how much silver could come to market before existing available inventories could no longer supplement current production. Let’s face it – it’s quite difficult to predict the exact timing of a seminal event occurring for the very first time.
That’s the real message of the unprecedented physical turnover in the COMEX silver warehouses – it has persisted and intensified precisely as the ability to draw from existing inventories has been steadily depleted. No one would argue that when the precise moment of truth arrives and no more significant physical quantities are available at current prices – no known force in the world (except perhaps JPMorgan) – will be capable of providing physical silver – no government or commercial entity. And while JPM may be capable of forestalling the physical crunch by sacrificing its masterfully-acquired physical hoard, that’s about as far from how it normally rolls, as is possible.
Since those in charge of running the ongoing massive physical turnover in the COMEX silver warehouses are precisely the very same banks on the COMEX which have come to be leery of adding new short positions as aggressively as in the past and since these guys don’t need me to explain to them how critical the physical situation in silver has become, there would appear to another connection hard to deny. Certainly, those in charge of the physical silver turnover in the COMEX warehouses know as well as anyone that once the silver shortage suddenly hits with a force intensified by a 40-year violation of the law of supply and demand, there will be little anyone can do to prevent a price explosion of the ages.
Perhaps the most singular spectacular achievement of the 12-year intense physical movement in the COMEX silver warehouses is that it has succeeded in keeping the world’s industrial silver users and fabricators fully-supplied in this just-in-time world. The minute the on-time silver deliveries hit a snag, some users, in seeking to avert future delivery delays, will move to order extra or stockpile silver. This will set off a chain reaction. The miracle is that it hasn’t happened to this point. Some may argue that it means it will never happen, but as supply chain difficulties have developed in a wide variety of various items over the past couple of years, it seems to guarantee a silver supply snag at some point – the difference being that any such “minor” snag in silver should rapidly escalate into a man against man free for all.
The only thing these banks, including JPMorgan, can possibly do when the physical silver storm hits is to batten down the hatches, with everyone seeking shelter, as trying to vanquish a physical shortage 40 years in the making is simply not possible. And that, my friends, is what I think is behind the sudden reluctance of the banks which have always been most comfortable on the short side, to be as heavily short as they have in the past. This is also very much in keeping with the massive positioning changes of the past year and just about everything important over the decades.
Look, I’m not trying to be a wise-guy with all the answers who will also be able to pinpoint accurately the precise moment of liftoff. As always, I’m just trying to make sense out of verifiable public data. At the same time, it’s high-time someone stands up to admit that the unprecedented physical turnover in the COMEX silver warehouses is so unusual that ignoring it is no longer a legitimate option if one professes to have an interest in silver.
Ted Butler
January 7, 2023
4. Other gold/silver commentaries
A good one: why China is hoarding gold. A must read!!
(zerohedge)
‘A Sanctions-Evasion War-Chest Ahead Of Taiwan Invasion’ – Why Is China Hording Gold Again?
MONDAY, JAN 09, 2023 – 03:45 PM
A month ago, we confirmed the identity of the “mystery” gold-buyer who had been suddenly hording the precious metal in recent months.
Specifically, we identified China as the hidden whale buying the barbarous relic when all around them are decrying it’s inflation-hedging help, remarking at the time that for China, the need to find an alternative to dollars, which dominate its reserves, has rarely been greater.
Tensions with the US have been high since measures taken against its semiconductor firms, while Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has demonstrated Washington’s willingness to sanction central bank reserves. In other words, now that the US has shown it is ready to weaponize the dollar, any USD reserves held by the Fed, Western banks or any other counterparty, could and will be promptly confiscated if China does something unpalatable… like invading Taiwan. Which is why China is desperately seeking money without counterparty risk. Here it has just two choices: crypto or gold. For now, it has picked the latter.
Today, commodities strategists at TD Securities agree that the gold whale could be the Chinese official sector.
“The rally in gold prices over the past two months has defied analyst expectations for continued weakness, including TD Securities. Yet, we see little evidence that the rise in gold prices is associated with a changing macro narrative. Given the bearish macro backdrop, speculative interest in gold has remained exceptionally lackluster as the world barrels towards a recession,” senior commodity strategist Daniel Ghali writes.
“Armed with a flows-based approach, we present strong evidence that behemoth Chinese and official sector purchases may have single-handedly catalyzed a $150/oz mispricing in gold markets,” he adds.
Chinese traders have been the only directly observable underlying buyers. Our tracking of the top ten participants in Shanghai highlights a notable increase in net length from this cohort, equivalent to 100 tonnes in notional gold since December 20th. This was primarily driven by more than 16k SHFE lots of new longs acquired over this timeframe, continuing the trend of notable rise in Shanghai gold length since early November. The pace of gold purchases from Shanghai traders has yet to show any sign of slowing as traders’ net length approaches last-twelve-month highs.
Further, signs of Chinese interest in gold are also apparent in the yellow metal’s microstructure. Chinese gold premiums remain extremely elevated by historical standards, which points to strong underlying demand for the yellow metal.
While premiums are below the extreme levels seen over the summer of 2022, when Mainland gold supply was constrained by lackluster quotas, their recent strength is rather a symptom of outstanding demand.
In turn, rather than viewing gold’s resilience as a function of a changing macroeconomic narrative, Chinese demand at a massive scale is likely the main culprit behind the strong price action that has defied analyst and trader views over past months. This helps to explain the disconnect between gold and real rates, in favor of a tighter relationship with currencies.
However, Ghali notes that “what is less clear is what has driven these massive purchases.”
The TD Securities’ strategist has a few ideas:
Reserve Currency Ambitions: A contingent of market participants has suggested that gold is gaining market share as a reserve asset. After all, USD valuations have moved to extremes following the build-up in USD cash and associated stagflation hedges. European data surprises are surging with growth expectations on the rise as extremely mild weather helped the region fare with the ongoing energy shock, at the same time as a fast-paced Chinese reopening bolsters rest-of-world growth — factors which are all in support of a cyclical peak in USD value. Most importantly, however, is the rise in perceived sanctions risks associated with USD reserves held in the East, following the introduction of Western sanctions on Russia this year; these have likely bolstered official purchases. This is consistent with official purchases announced by Turkey, Qatar and other nations. Market participants have pointed to the rapprochement between China and Gulf nations to support the thesis that demand for USD reserves is indeed declining. President Xi attended the very first China-Arab States Summit in history, seen as an echo to FDR’s meeting with King Abdul Aziz Ibn Saud in 1945 which cemented a new paradigm amounting to US security guarantees exchanged for oil sold in US dollars. Today, US incentives to provide security are likely to decline over the coming decade along with Western oil demand, whereas China’s growing demand for energy is likely to solidify trade with GCC nations over this timeframe. President Xi also spoke of a new paradigm — one of all-dimensional energy cooperation, which will entirely rely on RMB settlement for oil and gas trade over the next five years. While the long-term resilience of this thesis is difficult to rank in the present, this narrative is certainly consistent with price action associated with a steep accumulation of gold in support of the renminbi.
Hedging Sanctions: We previously discussed the rise in perceived sanctions risks associated with USD reserves held in the East, following the introduction of Western sanctions on Russia this year. A less likely scenario worth considering is whether a steep increase in gold reserves could be associated with the building of a sanction-evasion war chest tied to China’s geopolitical ambitions. Tensions between China and Taiwan have come to a boil over the past year with a heightened sense of fear of a military confrontation since the war in Ukraine. In turn, some market participants could plausibly fear that the steep accumulation of gold is preceding a military confrontation, but there is little concrete evidence to support this. Further, one could argue that this is inconsistent with an apparent détente with the West, highlighted by the recent lifting of China’s embargo on Australian coal and a notable shift in China’s foreign policy communications.
Chinese Reopening Demand: Our tracking of Shanghai gold positioning appears to loosely correlate with the frequency of Chinese reopening-themed news stories. Official sector purchases, however, are likely to have correlated more closely. After China’s widespread Q2 lockdowns had depressed jewellery, bar and coin demand, it is plausible that the comeback in sales observed during Q3 has gathered steam amid robust pent-up demand. While this is less appealing than a grandiose narrative about a change in geopolitical regimes, it is also consistent with the sharp recovery in gold demand observed with urban Indian consumers over the past year and with price action associated with a surge in Chinese demand. However, this thesis would clearly be more transient and would likely imply that gold prices are subject to a steep consolidation once Chinese pent-up demand is satiated and reverts to normality. This scenario would increase risks of a consolidation towards $1700/oz or below, given gold’s steep overvaluation relative to its recent historical relationship with real rates.
Restocking for Chinese New Year: Similarly, Chinese New Year has tended to seasonally buoy gold prices. Several market participants anticipate this trend, and it’s plausible that large pent-up demand for gold associated with Chinese New Year celebrations are tied to the end of Zero-Covid. Over the past five years, gold prices have rallied from November to year-end in every single instance, averaging a 3.25% gain. The exceptional 10.7% gain in gold prices observed in this time horizon for 2022 could plausibly be tied to extremely elevated demand tied to these celebrations. Unfortunately, we find little concrete evidence to support this view. Nonetheless, this scenario would also likely be associated with a sharp slump in demand as Chinese New Year approaches.
Lacking additional data, we don’t find sufficient evidence at this time to bolster our conviction on what has driven Chinese purchases. The massive demand impulse from the official sector certainly fits with China’s reserve currency ambitions and with the accumulation of a sanctions war chest, but the latter appears inconsistent with an apparent détente in foreign policy.
While central bank buying rarely drives sustainable gold rallies, it can provide an important pillar of support when prices fall. The precious metal has been under pressure this year from the Federal Reserve’s aggressive monetary tightening, though it has held up relatively well against moves in the dollar and Treasury yields.
“As deglobalisation accelerates, the non-G-10 nations are expected to ‘re-commoditize’ and ramp up gold holdings,” said Nicky Shiels, head of strategy at MKS PAMP SA.
Finally, as Zoltan Pozsar wrote most recently here (and in a must-read note last month), the role of gold may be changing as first Russia, then other countries (China) seek to force out the petrodollar and replace it with petrogold, a move which would finally lead to substantial price upside for the yellow metal which has gone nowhere in the past 2 years.
Remember Zoltan’s portfolio advice: Commodities should include three types of gold: yellow, black, and white. Yellow gold is gold bars. Black gold is oil. White gold is lithium for EVs.
5. Commodity commentaries/COAL
China finally eases its ban on Australian coal imports. The fight begin two years ago after China spread the COVID 19 around the world
(zerohedge)
China Eases Ban On Australian Coal Imports, But Impact Will Be Mostly Symbolic
MONDAY, JAN 09, 2023 – 10:00 PM
China has allowed several large coal importers to resume purchases of Australian coal, easing an unofficial ban that has lasted more than two years, as Beijing looks to strengthen energy security after ditching the zero Covid policy.
China enacted an unofficial ban on Australian coal in October 2020 after Australia backed a call for an international inquiry into the way China handled the initial COVID outbreak in early 2020. China’s decision to allow four big importers to restart imports of coal from Australia is a sign of a thawing in relations between the two nations and sparked hope that trade between the two could return to normal.
As OilPrice notes, last week China’s National Development and Reform Commission discussed the idea to allow four large Chinese coal importers to make new purchases of Australian coal this year. These are China Baowu Steel Group Corp, China Datang Corporation, China Huaneng Group Co, and China Energy Investment Corporation.
China Energy Investment Corp has already placed an order for purchasing coal from Australia, and the first cargo could load as early as this month, according to Reuters. Moreover, the surge in Covid cases after the end of the restrictions has resulted in lower coal supply from China’s key coal-producing centers Shanxi and Inner Mongolia, traders told Reuters.
At the same time, Reuters also notes that China’s decision to allow imports of Australian coal after more than two years of an unofficial ban is one of those moves where the symbolic importance outweighs the practical impact. The partial easing of the ban will see three utilities and a major steelmaker given permission to resume imports from Australia, which used to be the second-biggest supplier to China prior to the curbs being imposed in mid-2020.
As Reuters adds, while there is likely to be some interest among Chinese buyers for cargoes from Australia, the likelihood of a return to prior levels of trade is limited as regional and global market dynamics have shifted substantially.
That doesn’t mean the move is without significance, but the impact is likely to be more about improving ties between China and Australia, which became strained when Canberra called for an investigation into the origins of the coronavirus pandemic, resulting in China banning imports of several goods from Australia, including barley, wine and lobsters.
The partial easing of the ban will see three utilities and a major steelmaker given permission to resume imports from Australia, which used to be the second-biggest supplier to China prior to the curbs being imposed in mid-2020.
That said, there are several reasons why Australian coal won’t once again become a major factor in China, the world’s largest importer of the fuel used mainly for power generation or to make steel.
The first, and most important, is that Australian coal will struggle to compete on price in China, especially thermal grades used to make electricity.
Prior to the ban in July 2020, China was importing in the region of 3.5 to 4.3 million tonnes of thermal coal from Australia, with the 2020 peak coming in at 4.26 million in April of that year, according to data compiled by commodity analysts Kpler.
For that month, it gave Australia a market share of 21% of China’s total thermal coal imports, well behind the leader Indonesia, which had a share of 69%.
While the numbers did move around somewhat on a monthly basis, the April 2020 data is representative of the broader trend in China’s imports of thermal coal, namely Indonesia dominated and Australia was a distant second.
Once the informal ban came into effect, Australia’s share of China’s imports dropped to zero by early 2021.
It’s also the case that China’s overall imports slumped in the months after the ban was imposed, but they started to recover from November 2020 onwards and by June 2021 thermal coal arrivals were exceeding 2020 levels.
What effectively happened is that Russian cargoes replaced Australian, with seaborne thermal coal imports from China’s northern neighbour reaching 3.37 million tonnes by June 2021, having been just 1.07 million in April 2020, the peak month for imports from Australia that year.
China’s imports of Russian thermal coal have remained solid, with some seasonal variations, since then and were 2.96 million tonnes in December, according to Kpler.
The question is whether Australian coal miners can compete on price with Russian thermal supplies, and the answer is probably not. Chinese utilities previously imported lower grade Australian thermal coal, so the closest match is the 5,500 kilocalories per kg (kcal/kg) assessment by commodity price reporting agency Argus. This was pegged at $132 a tonne in the week to Jan. 6, which is roughly similar to Russian thermal coal at the eastern port of Nakhodka, which was assessed by McCloskey at $130.
However, the freight rate strongly favours Russian supplies given the shorter distance to reach Chinese ports.
There is also more than price to consider.
Australian coal miners, as well as the region’s traders, shippers and bankers, will be wary of going back into the Chinese market, having been burnt by the unofficial ban back in 2020. This means they are likely to be willing to sell again to China, but will also be more demanding in terms of price and guarantees. They may also be reluctant to divert coal away from the buyers they gained after the Chinese ban, especially those in places like India and Vietnam.
In short, it will likely take some time to rebuild trust and trading relationships. Add in a likely price disadvantage and it’s hard to see Australian thermal coal charging back into China.
Where there is more scope is in metallurgical, or coking, coal, where Australian cargoes are likely to be more price competitive against those from Russia and the United States. Australia used to be China’s top supplier of imported seaborne coking coal, with imports peaking at 6.84 million tonnes in June 2020, for a market share of 94%. Russia was a distant second in June 2020, supplying just 409,916 tonnes, according to Kpler.
The unofficial ban on Australia coal saw China’s imports of seaborne coking coal plunge, and unlike thermal coal they have not recovered and were just 2.14 million tonnes in December 2022, or just under 30% of June 2020 levels. China has been forced to import more coking coal overland from neighbouring Mongolia and has also boosted domestic output to make up for the shortfall.
While Australian coking coal is likely to be more pricey than that from Mongolia, it can also be delivered to coastal steel mills more easily. Australian supplies may also be more costly than those from Russia, but Russia has limited capacity to supply more volumes, which means Chinese buyers may be willing to purchase Australian supplies to ensure security of supply.
But it may take some time for Australian coking coal to return to China in meaningful volumes for much the same reasons as thermal coal, a lack of trust, the need to rebuild trading relationships and a reluctance to cut off other buyers.
* * *
With demand for winter heating rising, China now looks to avoid another coal crunch. China has put more emphasis on energy security since the autumn of 2021 when power shortages crippled its industry. In 2022, China said it would continue to maximize the use of coal in the coming years as it caters to its energy security, despite pledges to contribute to global efforts to reduce emissions.
In recent months, China has significantly boosted its coal production, following government orders. China’s daily coal production hit a record high in November 2022 as demand for heating jumped, beating the previous record set in September 2022.
END
6/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
Coinbase fires 20% of its workforce and warns of dark times in the crypto field
(zerohedge)
Coinbase Fires 20% Of Workforce; CEO Warns Of “Dark Times” In Crypto
TUESDAY, JAN 10, 2023 – 09:22 AM
Coinbase is reducing its workforce again amid a collapse in its stock price, turmoil in crypto land, and broader macroeconomic headwinds.
The cryptocurrency exchange will cut approximately 20% of its workforce, or about 950 jobs, in a second round of layoffs in less than one year. Coinbase had 4,700 employees at the end of September and had already slashed its headcount by 18% in June last year.
“Therefore, I’ve made the difficult decision to reduce our operating expense(1) by about 25% Q/Q, which includes letting go of about 950 people(2). All impacted team members will be informed by today,” CEO Brian Armstrong wrote in a letter to employees.
Armstrong explained the company will be “shutting down several projects where we have a lower probability of success.” He said those teams have already had their access to internal systems stripped and will be contacted by the company today.
Affected team members will receive an email to their personal account in the next hour with more information, and an invitation to meet with an HRBP and senior leader. Coinbase system access has already been removed. I realize this last step feels sudden and harsh, but I believe it’s the only prudent choice given our responsibility to protect customer information.
He added that the firings weren’t due to job performance but based on economic turmoil in the broader economy and the crypto space.
To those of you who will be leaving, please know that this is not a reflection of your work or contributions to Coinbase. I believe we have an incredible team, and all of you have been important members of that. Instead, it’s a reflection of the current economic climate and crypto market.
He continued:
Progress doesn’t always happen in a straight line, and sometimes it can feel like we’re taking two steps forward and one step back. But just like we saw with the internet, the most important companies not only survive but thrive during down markets by being rigorous with cost management, and continuing to build innovative products.
Armstrong considers the current environment “dark times.” He warned last June:
We appear to be entering a recession after a 10+ year economic boom. A recession could lead to another crypto winter, and could last for an extended period.
Coinbase shares in premarket trading are down nearly 3%. Since the IPO in the spring of 2021, shares have plunged 89%.
As for Bitcoin, it’s down nearly 75% since peaking at around $67.7k in late 2021.
* * *
Here’s Armstrong’s full letter to employees:
Team,
In 2022, the crypto market trended downwards along with the broader macroeconomy. We also saw the fallout from unscrupulous actors in the industry, and there could still be further contagion.
Coinbase is well capitalized, and crypto isn’t going anywhere. In fact, I believe recent events will ultimately end up benefiting Coinbase greatly (a large competitor failing, emerging regulatory clarity, etc.), and they validate our long term strategy. But it will take time for these changes to come to fruition and we need to make sure we have the appropriate operational efficiency to weather downturns in the crypto market, and capture opportunities that may emerge.
Therefore, I’ve made the difficult decision to reduce our operating expense(1) by about 25% Q/Q, which includes letting go of about 950 people(2). All impacted team members will be informed by today.
I’d like to explain how we got here, what it will mean for those impacted, and how we’ll move forward. I also want to be clear that, while some of the factors that have brought us to this point are beyond our control, accountability rests with me as the CEO. We also reduced headcount last year as the market started to correct, and in hindsight, we could have cut further at that time.
How we got here
Every year we do our annual planning process where we run different scenarios for revenue: bull, base, and bear. The crypto industry is difficult to predict, but it’s important to have planning in place that ensures we can succeed as a business in multiple potential outcomes. Over the last decade, Coinbase has made it through multiple bear markets using this process. This is the first time we’ve seen a crypto cycle coincide with a broader economic downturn, but otherwise it is similar.
As we examined our 2023 scenarios, it became clear that we would need to reduce expenses to increase our chances of doing well in every scenario. While it is always painful to part ways with our fellow colleagues, there was no way to reduce our expenses significantly enough, without considering changes to headcount.
As part of a headcount reduction like this, we will be shutting down several projects where we have a lower probability of success. Affected teams will receive communication on this today. Our other projects will continue to operate as normal, just with fewer people on the team. We will share more detail publicly on our expense outlook in a public 8-K filing today and on our Q4 earnings call in February.
Affected team members and transition support
Affected team members will receive an email to their personal account in the next hour with more information, and an invitation to meet with an HRBP and senior leader. Coinbase system access has already been removed. I realize this last step feels sudden and harsh, but I believe it’s the only prudent choice given our responsibility to protect customer information.
To those of you who will be leaving, please know that this is not a reflection of your work or contributions to Coinbase. I believe we have an incredible team, and all of you have been important members of that. Instead, it’s a reflection of the current economic climate and crypto market.
We will be providing a comprehensive package to support you through this transition. For those of you in the US, this includes a minimum of 14 weeks base pay (2 additional weeks per year worked), health insurance, and other benefits. We are also providing extra transition support for impacted employees on a work visa. Those of you outside the US will receive similar support in line with the employment laws of your country.
We’re also giving everyone access to our Talent Hub to help connect you with your next career opportunity. Coinbase employees are among the most talented in the world, and I’m certain that your skills and experience will stand out, even in a challenging job market.
Moving forward
To everyone we’re losing, I want to sincerely thank you for everything you’ve done here. You’ve played a huge role in making crypto more trusted and easy to use, and our customers and the world are better for it.
To everyone who is staying, I know this is a challenging day. This latest downturn has caused plenty of fear and anxiety. Thank you for your resilience. Our mission is more important than ever, and these changes will ensure we build an enduring company during this period.
This is also a moment where I’d like us to focus on our startup culture, and remember what it feels like to have small, nimble teams that are able to get more done. As Coinbase grew so quickly in 2021, we all felt the coordination headwind that caused us to move more slowly. Over the past ten years, we, along with most tech companies, became too focused on growing headcount as a metric for success. Especially in this economic environment, it’s important to shift our focus to operational efficiency.
Despite everything we’ve been through as a company and an industry, I’m still optimistic about our future and the future of crypto. Progress doesn’t always happen in a straight line, and sometimes it can feel like we’re taking two steps forward and one step back. But just like we saw with the internet, the most important companies not only survive but thrive during down markets by being rigorous with cost management, and continuing to build innovative products.
Dark times also weed out bad companies, as we’re seeing right now. But those of us who believe in crypto will keep building great products and increasing economic freedom in the world. Better days are ahead, and when they arrive, we’ll be ready. Thank you for everything you’ve done to get us this far, and everything you will do to carry us forward.
Brian
END
Genesis is another crooked operation and will go down just like FTX
(Wright/CoinTelegraph)
“No Path Forward” – Gemini’s Winklevoss Blasts DCG’s Silbert Over “Carefully Crafted Campaign Of Lies”
Recursive trades between Grayscale trust and the Three Arrows Capital hedge fund allegedly inflated assets and fees, according to open letter from the Gemini president
Cameron Winklevoss, co-founder of the cryptocurrency exchange Gemini, has penned an open letter to the board of Digital Currency Group, or DCG, saying CEO Barry Silbert was “unfit” to run the company.
In a Jan 10. letter, Winklevoss claimed Silbert and Genesis Global Capital — a subsidiary of DCG — had defrauded more than 340,000 users who were a part of Gemini’s Earn program.
The letter followed a Jan. 2 appeal on Twitter to Silbert directly, in which the Gemini co-founder said Genesis owed Gemini $900 million, accusing the CEO of hiding “behind lawyers, investment bankers, and process.”
According to Winklevoss, Genesis lent more than $2.3 billion to Three Arrows Capital, a move which ultimately left the crypto firm with a loss of $1.2 billion once the hedge fund failed in June 2022.
In the letter Cameron Winklevoss explains, in detail, his accusations about Silbert’s actions using recursive trades between Grayscale Trust and Three Arrows Capital to inflate assets and fees…
How did we get here? Greed.
As a standalone business, it’s inconceivable that Genesis would have lent so much money to 3AC given the low quality of the collateral that 3AC posted. Genesis made these loans because it was one piece of a much larger scheme designed to enrich the greater DCG enterprise. More specifically, Genesis was willing to recklessly lend to 3AC because 3AC was using the money for the kamikaze Grayscale net asset value (NAV) trade – a recursive trade that ballooned the AUM of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (ticker: GBTC) and, as a consequence, the fees earned by its sponsor, Grayscale Investments, LLC (Grayscale), a wholly owned subsidiary of DCG.
Genesis booked these interactions with 3AC as bona fide, collateralized loans. It is becoming clear, however, that this was not the case at all. In reality, 3AC was acting as a mere conduit for Genesis, allowing it to enter into what were effectively swap transactions of bitcoin for GBTC shares with the Grayscale Trust. In this transaction, Genesis was betting that shares would be worth more than bitcoin in the future. The 3AC “loan” was the bitcoin leg of the swap and the 3AC “collateral” was the GBTC leg of the swap. 3AC was a mule shuttling the assets between the parties, and as a result Genesis ended up owning massive risk.
Up until 2021, Genesis won this zero-sum trade because the GBTC shares were worth more than bitcoin. Starting in 2021, however, Genesis lost this trade because the shares were worth less than bitcoin. Normally, all things being equal, the gains and losses would cancel each other out. There is no free lunch. In other words, Genesis would participate in both the wins and losses. Astonishingly, however, it appears that Genesis never participated in the wins because it apparently always ceded them – the GBTC share premium – to 3AC. This meant that Genesis only participated in the losses, turning what would otherwise have been a zero-sum trade into a negative-sum trade. Crazy town.
Disturbingly, not only did Genesis not close out 3AC’s position when the NAV trade inverted (something any rational, independently operated business would have done), it continued to lend to 3AC on attractive terms and accept GBTC as collateral. For Grayscale, this had the desired effect of keeping GBTC shares from being sold into the market, which would have depressed the share price and further widened the discount to NAV. But for Genesis, this had the undesired effect of keeping its risk position open and allowing it to grow.
Why would Genesis enter into a toxic risk position where the best it could do was not lose money? Things only begin to make sense when you realize that the bitcoin this swap was stuffing into the Grayscale Trust like a Thanksgiving turkey is stuck there forever. It can never be redeemed (or at least until Grayscale, in its sole discretion, decides to implement a redemption program allowing GBTC shares to be converted back into bitcoin). As a result, Barry was comfortable with Genesis loading up more and more on this toxic trade because it was a gambit to feed the Grayscale Trust — Barry’s financial Hotel California that would print money for the DCG universe in perpetuity. The end would justify the means.
Original Accounting Fraud.
Instead of booking these swaps as the risky derivatives that they were, Genesis hid them by mischaracterizing the first and last legs of these swaps transactions as collateralized loans on its balance sheet. This made the Genesis balance sheet appear healthier than it actually was, fraudulently inducing lenders to continue making loans.
In June 2022, the music stopped. 3AC collapsed, laying bare the poisonous fruits of this radioactive trade.
Instead of stepping up to solve this self-created problem, and despite having earned more than a billion dollars in fees — all at the expense of Genesis lenders — Barry refused to take responsibility. Instead, he resorted to committing fraud to protect his ill-gotten gains.
He claimed Silbert, DCG, and Genesis orchestrated “a carefully crafted campaign of lies” starting in July 2022 in an effort to show DCG had injected the funds into Genesis.
“There is no path forward as long as Barry Silbert remains CEO of DCG,” said Winklevoss.
“He has proven himself unfit to run DCG and unwilling and unable to find a resolution with creditors that is both fair and reasonable. As a result, Gemini, acting on behalf of 340,000 Earn users, requests that the Board remove Barry Silbert as CEO.”
1. YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS//TUESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 6.7814
OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.7979
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 6.58 PTS OR 0.21%
HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 56.88 PTS 0.27%
2. Nikkei closed UP 201.71 PTS OR .78%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL RED
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 103,12 Euro FALLS TO 1.0726 DOWN 6 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.500!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 132.21/JAPANESE YEN RISING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN: DOWN-// OFF- SHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN’S worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.279%***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield FALLS to 4.238%*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 3.322…** DANGEROUS//
3i Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO 4.438//
3j Gold at $1871.95//silver at: 23.48 7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 21/100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 69.49//
3m oil into the 75 dollar handle for WTI and 79 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 132.21
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.9224–as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9894 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.567% UP 5 BASIS PTS…GETTING DANGEROUS
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.678% UP 3 BASIS PTS//
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18,78…
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: 3.5975 % UP 7 BASIS PTS
end
i.b Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:
FIRST, ZEROHEDGE (PRE USA OPENING// MORNING
Futures Slump Ahead Of Powell Speech
TUESDAY, JAN 10, 2023 – 08:08 AM
US futures dropped as investors waited to see whether Fed Chair Jerome Powell will differentiate himself from hawkish comments made by two policy makers on Monday when he speaks later at an event in Sweden at 9am ET. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures dropped to session lows around 7:15am ET after trading little changed for much of the overnight session. Traders are also reluctant to take strong directional bets before US inflation data is published on Thursday and visibility clears up on the trajectory of interest rates. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was near session after trading earlier in a tight range, while the rest of the currencies in the Group of 10 were mixed. Treasuries also broke out above a range, hitting session highs around 3.57% around the time stocks stumbled. Oil rose with gold and Bitcoin rallying for a seventh-straight day.
Among US premarket movers, Virgin Orbit slumped as much as 27%, putting the stock on track for its biggest drop since June 2022, after the failure of a rocket that Richard Branson’s satellite company launched from a Boeing 747. Among winners, Oak Street Health rose 33% after Bloomberg reported that drugstore operator CVS is exploring an acquisition of the primary care provider, in a deal which could exceed $10 billion, including debt. Shares in Frontline, listed both in the US and Norway, surged as much as 20% in Oslo after the shipping giant controlled by billionaire John Fredriksen walked away from its plans to acquire Belgium’s Euronav, which dropped 21% on the news. Bed Bath & Beyond shares also jumped as much as 20%, poised to continue its rebound from the previous session, ahead of its earnings report and after the troubled home furnishings retailer saw its long-term rating upgraded at S&P. Here are some other notable premarket movers:
Boeing stock slides 2.7% as Morgan Stanley downgraded its rating on the planemaker to equal-weight from overweight, saying the stock is now approaching fair value following recent outperformance.
Frontline (FRO US) shares surge 22% after the company said it wouldn’t make a voluntary conditional exchange offer for all outstanding shares of the oil tanker operator Euronav. The decision not to proceed follows opposition from Belgium’s Saverys family – a major holder in Euronav.
Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY US) shares jump 20%, poised to continue their rebound from the previous session before its earnings report. The troubled home furnishings retailer also saw its long-term rating upgraded at S&P.
HP Enterprise shares were down 1.9% after Barclays downgraded them to equal-weight, taking a cautious view on IT hardware stocks in 2023 given a challenging macro backdrop. The broker also cut NetApp (NTAP US) and upgraded Keysight (KEYS US) shares.
Barclays expects a difficult 1H for US software stocks as estimates still look too high, even if valuation levels are “interesting.” The broker upgrades DoubleVerify (DV US) and Confluent (CFLT US), cuts Dynatrace (DT US).
RBC anticipates a challenging start for US software stocks in 2023, which will eventually give way to “green shoots” of optimism. The broker outlines its top picks in the sector and cuts Box (BOX US) to underperform.
Watch Chemours (CC US) after the stock was cut to sector perform from outperform at RBC on expectations that a challenging fourth quarter for the chemicals firm will feed into the first half of 2023.
Keep an eye on PPG Industries (PPG US) as it was cut to sector perform from outperform at RBC with limited upside seen for the paint-maker’s stock amid expectations that volumes will come under pressure.
Sentiment was dented on Monday, as a 1.4% gain in the S&P was fully reversed, after the San Francisco and Atlanta Fed presidents poured cold water on hopes that monetary tightening would soon ease off by calling for interest rates to rise above 5% and staying there, a scenario strategists believe would be negative for stock markets. It’s also what they have been saying for months, but the market is always happy to keep pricing in the same flashing red headline as if it was new.
“Sentiment is torn between the fear of missing out good news on inflation and, by opposite, angsts the Fed will be stubborn in its fight against inflation which reinforces the risk of a recession,” said Sarah Thirion, a Paris-based strategist at TP ICAP Europe. Fears about Covid in China and the trend of corporate guidance which will be unveiled during the next earnings season are also weighing on stocks, Thirion said.
“The same pattern keeps emerging, with investors clinging onto any data which appears to show the economy is cooling off, only to see their hopes dashed by policymakers who clearly believe the inflation-busting job is far from over,” said Susannah Streeter, senior investment and markets analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.
Thursday’s US inflation report, which will come out almost a week after the latest jobs data showed wage growth has decelerated, will be among the last such readings Fed policy makers will see before their Jan. 31-Feb. 1 gathering.
European stock markets, which have outperformed Wall Street since September, were also in a cautious mood with the Stoxx 600 down 0.6% after hitting an eight-month high yesterday. Retailers, industrials and miners are the worst performing sectors. Here are some of the most notable European movers:
Orsted gains as much as 4.1% after being named among preferred picks in the renewables space by both Morgan Stanley and Exane.
Card Factory jumps as much as 9.4% after raising full-year pretax profit guidance in a trading update. Liberum said the greetings-card retailer delivered another “impressive” update.
Plus500 gains as much as 3% after giving an update for the year-end, with Liberum saying the trading platform saw an “excellent” performance in FY22.
AO World rises as much as 18% after raising guidance for FY adjusted Ebitda. Jefferies says the update shows that efforts to cut costs and improve margins are working.
European staffing stocks drop following a warning from UK recruiter Robert Walters and with Dutch peer Randstad downgraded by Degroof
Euronav slumps 21% after Frontline said it won’t make a voluntary conditional exchange offer for all outstanding shares of the oil tanker operator.
Husqvarna falls as much as 4.6%, the most since Dec. 15, after Danske Bank cut its recommendation to hold from buy, expecting a “challenging” first half of 2023.
Kahoot shares fall as much as 18%, the most since November, after the company published below-forecast fourth- quarter preliminary adjusted Ebitda on weak macro conditions.
Games Workshop falls as much as 6.9% after reporting 1H results that Jefferies said contained highs and lows, highlighting the challenges flagged by management.
Optimism for the region is rising with economists at Goldman Sachs no longer predicting a euro-zone recession after the economy proved more resilient at the end of 2022, natural gas prices fell sharply and China abandoned Covid-19 restrictions earlier than anticipated. GDP is now expected to increase 0.6% this year, compared with an earlier forecast for a contraction of 0.1%. Economists led by Jari Stehn warn in a report to clients of weak growth during the winter given the energy crisis, and say headline inflation will ease faster than thought, to about 3.25% by end-2023. As reported previously, BofA CIO Michael Hartnett said a new era may have started with the ratio of the S&P 500 index to the Stoxx Europe 600 breaking its 100-week moving average, a support that has held strong for more than a decade.
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks declined as Chinese equities halted their rally, which had pushed a key regional benchmark to a bull market, amid profit-taking and renewed caution on the Fed’s rate-hike path. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 0.3% as of 4:17 pm in Singapore, dragged lower by Alibaba and Ping An Insurance. Trading volume was about 4% lower than the three-month average, according to data complied by Bloomberg. Tuesday’s breather comes as Asia’s benchmark index a day earlier entered bull territory, driven by China’s reopening and a weakening dollar that lured investors back to the region after facing a downward spiral for much of 2022. Benchmarks in Hong Kong posted moderate losses while stock gauges in India, Singapore and Indonesia dropped more than 1%. Indonesian stocks were on track to enter a technical correction as investors looked to cash out from one of Asia’s hottest markets for 2022.
Japanese equities climbed as traders returned from a holiday; as investors assessed the impact of China’s reopening and US job data that showed slower-than-expected average wage growth. The Topix Index rose 0.3% to 1,880.88 as of the market close in Tokyo, while the Nikkei advanced 0.8% to 26,175.56. Daikin Industries Ltd. contributed the most to the Topix Index gain, increasing 5.3%. Out of 2,162 stocks in the index, 1,092 rose and 953 fell, while 117 were unchanged. “Japanese stocks benefited from the belief that the Fed’s next rate hike will be more moderate,” said Tomo Kinoshita, a global market strategist at Invesco Asset Management. “China’s reopening has a positive impact on Japanese stocks, and inbound demand will resume once regulations around Chinese tourists are eased.”
“After the sharp rally, Asian markets could see a bout of profit taking amid headwinds from tighter financial conditions and no respite in Fed rate-hike outlook,” said Nitin Chanduka, a strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence. Two Fed officials said the central bank will likely need to raise interest rates above 5% before pausing and holding for some time. Still, the recent rally in Chinese equities may have more legs as consumption-driven firms drive the reopening rebound further and China shifts its focus to economic growth. Investors expect a strong 2023 for both Chinese stocks and the yuan as Asia’s largest economy bucks the global trend of weakening expansion. Morgan Stanley turned even more bullish on the market, raising price targets further and expecting China to top global equity-market performance in 2023. “We remain of the view that Asian investors should use this volatility in 1Q23 as an opportunity to raise exposure,” said Chetan Seth, an Asia equity strategist at Nomura Holdings.
Australian stocks nudged lower after Fed speakers dampened risk sentiment. The S&P/ASX 200 index fell 0.3% to close at 7,131.00 as investors assessed hawkish commentary from Fed officials. The retreat halted the benchmark’s four-day run of gains. Miners and banks were the biggest drags on Tuesday. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index rose 0.2% to 11,665.26
Stocks in India resumed a decline after bellwether Tata Consultancy’s quarterly earnings showed increasing caution over technology spending amid an uncertain economic outlook. The S&P BSE Sensex fell 1% to 60,115.48 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index declined by an equal measure. Both the gauges are close to extending their losses from peak levels last month to 5% as investors resort to profit-taking at the start of the earnings season. Sixteen of BSE Ltd.’s 20 sector sub-gauges declined, led by telecom companies, while Reliance Industries was the biggest drag on the Sensex, plunging 1.5%. Tata Consultancy Services closed 1% lower after its net income for the fiscal third quarter trailed estimates. Foreign investors have been sellers of local shares this month, taking out about $602 million through Jan. 6 after $167m of outflows in December.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Index jumped near session highs after the greenback initially slipped against most of its Group-of-10 peers. The dollar finds itself at a make-or-break technical moment, with its two-year rally under threat as key US inflation data looms.
The euro rose to a daily high of around $1.0750 in European session. The euro hit fresh cycle highs Monday and options pricing is coming to reflect a more constructive outlook in the short-term. Bunds and Italian bonds dropped, underperforming Treasuries
The Canadian dollar was steady. USD/CAD’s downward path is being refueled in the options space as traders position for an extended period of US dollar weakness
The Australian dollar was the worst G-10 performer. Sovereign bonds inched up
The yen was steady at 131.80 per dollar. Tokyo’s inflation outpaced forecasts to hit 4% for the first time since 1982, suggesting the underlying price trend is stronger than expected by economists, a factor that could further fuel speculation the Bank of Japan will adjust policy again
In rates, Treasuries ease lower, following wider losses across core European rates amid supply pressures and ahead of a Riksbank conference on central bank independence where ECB’s Schnabel, BOE Governor Bailey and Fed Chair Powell are all scheduled to speak. US 10-year yield around 3.56%, cheaper by 3bp on the day with bunds and gilts lagging by additional 2.5bp and 2bp; long-end Treasuries outperformance flattens 5s30s by 1.5bp vs Monday’s close. Front-end and intermediates lead slight losses in Treasuries, flattening 5s30s spread. After Powell appearance, the year’s first auction cycle begins at 1pm ET with $40bn in 3-year new issue, followed by $32b 10-year, $18b 30-year reopenings on Wednesday and Thursday. European bonds are also in the red with Bund futures underperforming their UK counterparts. The Gilt curve bear steepens with 2s10s widening 2.1bps.
In commodities, crude futures reversed an earlier drop to trade higher. WTI Has added 0.5% to trade near $75.00. Spot gold rises roughly $5 to trade near $1,877/oz.
Bitcoin is support above the USD 17k mark, holding towards the top-end of USD 17133-17294 parameters.
Looking to the day ahea, at 9 a.m., Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak at an event hosted by the Swedish central bank. Other speakers include BoE Governor Bailey, BoJ Governor Kuroda, BoC Governor Macklem, and the ECB’s Schnabel, De Cos, and Knot. An hour later, we’ll get the latest data on wholesale inventories. At 10:30 a.m., President Joe Biden will meet Canada’s Justin Trudeau, while Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen meets Canadian Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland at 1:30 p.m. The US will sell $40 billion 3-year notes at 1 p.m.
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures down 0.5% to 3,896
STOXX Europe 600 down 0.7% to 445.05
MXAP little changed at 161.72
MXAPJ down 0.3% to 534.27
Nikkei up 0.8% to 26,175.56
Topix up 0.3% to 1,880.88
Hang Seng Index down 0.3% to 21,331.46
Shanghai Composite down 0.2% to 3,169.51
Sensex down 1.1% to 60,097.38
Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.3% to 7,131.00
Kospi little changed at 2,351.31
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.27%
Euro up 0.2% to $1.0751
Brent Futures up 0.1% to $79.73/bbl
Brent Futures up 0.1% to $79.74/bbl
Gold spot up 0.3% to $1,876.70
U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 103.06
Top Overnight News from Bloomberg
Cost pressures in corporate Germany appear to be easing, with fewer companies planning price increases during the coming months. Price expectations for the whole economy fell to 40.3 points in December from 46.2 points the previous month, according to a survey by the Ifo Institute published Tuesday
Back in October equities and bonds were breaking from their normal settings to move together far more tightly than at almost any stage in history. Since then, the ties have only become tighter, as the prospects of an end to Fed rate hikes helps to drive gains for both Treasury futures and S&P 500 contracts
East European nations started 2023 with a flurry of dollar issuance, putting the region on track for a record year as it rediscovers the foreign-debt market beyond its traditional euro-denominated sales
Deflationary pressure in China worsened in the fourth quarter as the economy slumped, with price-growth likely to be subdued even when the economy rebounds later this year, according to China Beige Book International
Egypt’s urban inflation accelerated at its fastest pace in five years as several rounds of currency devaluation filtered through to consumers
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks traded mostly lower as the risk appetite in the region stalled following a similar handover from Wall St where the major indices failed to sustain early gains despite a further dovish Fed repricing. ASX 200 was lacklustre amid weakness in industrials and mining stocks, although price action was rangebound amid the lack of any major fresh drivers. Nikkei 225 outperformed as it played catch-up to Monday’s advances on return from the extended weekend but with upside capped as participants also reflected on weak Household Spending and firm Tokyo CPI data releases. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were indecisive as the border reopening euphoria faded and despite reports that China will cut VAT for small businesses, while the PBoC also continued to drain liquidity.
Top Asian News
Chinese state media noted that the COVID-19 wave is past its peak in many parts of China.
China’s embassy in South Korea stopped issuing short-term visas for Korean citizens visiting China and said it will adjust policy subject to the lifting of South Korea’s discriminatory entry restrictions against China, according to Reuters. Subsequently, the embassies in Japan took the same step.
China’s State Planner publishes registration rules for mid- & long-term foreign borrowings by companies, aimed at promoting orderly offshore financing.
PBoC is to increase financial support for domestic demand and the supply system, to guide the balance sheets of high-quality real estate enterprises back to a safe range, ensure steady and orderly property financing.
European bourses are underpressure, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.5%, in a continuation of the tepid APAC tone amid minimal newsflow. US futures are similarly contained and are diverging slightly around the unchanged mark pre-Powell. Amazon (AMZN) intends to close three UK warehouses (will impact 1,200 jobs), according to the PA.
Top European News
ECB’s Schnabel says greening monetary policy requires structural changes to our monetary policy framework rather than adjustments to our reaction function. Preliminary inflation data for December point to a persistent build-up of underlying price pressures even as energy price inflation has started to subside. Interest rates will still have to rise significantly at a steady pace to reach levels that are sufficiently restrictive.
Adyen, Nexi to Be Hit by Weaker Card Spending, Barclays Says
Teneo Is Said to Near Deal to Buy British PR Firm Tulchan
RBC Sees Good Growth For European Luxury and Premium Brands
Uniper Says CEO and COO to Resign After Government Takeover
FX
Dollar is trying to regroup ahead of Fed Chair Powell, but DXY is heavy on the 103.000 handle and mixed vs majors.
Kiwi marginally outperforming as Aussie retreats with Yuan after some Chinese officials warn about 2-way volatility in 2023.
AUD/NZD cross reverses towards 1.0800 from 1.0860+, USD/CNH bounces from 6.7585 to almost 6.8000.
Euro consolidates on a 1.0700 handle vs Buck, but Pound runs into resistance pips from 1.2200
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.7611 vs exp. 6.7613 (prev. 6.8265)
Fixed Income
Bonds retreat further from peaks in consolidation and consideration of heavy conventional and syndicated issuance.
Bunds sub-137.00 and very close to Monday’s base, Gilts mostly under 102.00 and T-note below par within a 114-19+/11 range.
Focus on Central Bank speakers at a Riksbank symposium where ECB’s Schnabel has already been hawkish.
Saudi Arabia has begun marketing a three-part USD bond, via Bloomberg.
Commodities
Crude benchmarks spent much of the European morning little changed, but have recently broken out of and eclipsed initial parameters, with upside of circa. USD 0.50/bbl as such.
Barclays remains constructive on the space reiterating its Brent 2023 forecast of USD 98/bbl; writing there is the potential for USD 15-25/bbl of downside if the slump in global manufacturing worsens..
Goldman Sachs cut its Summer 2023 TTF price forecast by EUR 80 to EUR 100/MWh, citing exceptionally warm realised and forecast weather, as well as strong energy conservation.
Iraq’s December crude production was unchanged from November at 4.43mln BPD; in-line with its OPEC+ quota.
Large Chinese nickel producer Tsingshan is in talks with struggling Chinese copper plants regarding processing its material which could double Chinese refined nickel output this year, according to Mining.com.
LME says further work will be required to prepare and communicate to the market a detailed implementation plan re. the Oliver Wydman review.
Spot gold and silver are diverging a touch and remain in close proximity to the unchanged mark in similarly narrow ranges, base metals are generally contained though the negative APAC bias remains in play.
Geopolitics
US Pentagon is mulling sending Stryker armoured vehicles to Ukraine in an upcoming aid package, according to people familiar with the matter cited by Politico.
UK is willing to send battle tanks to Ukraine with PM Sunak supportive of Challenger II supply that could provide Ukrainian President Zelensky with a ‘knockout punch’, according to The Telegraph.
Russian Defence Minister Shoigu says Moscow will develop its nuclear triad and be the main guarantee of Russian sovereignty, according to Interfax.
Crypto
Bitcoin is support above the USD 17k mark, holding towards the top-end of USD 17133-17294 parameters.
US Event Calendar
06:00: Dec. SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM, 89.8; est. 91.5, prior 91.9
10:00: Nov. Wholesale Trade Sales MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.4%
10:00: Nov. Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 1.0%, prior 1.0%
Central Bank Speakers
05:10: Bailey, Schnabel, Macklem Speak in Stockholm
09:00: Powell Discusses Central Bank Independence at Riksbank Event
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Markets looked set to start the week off with a positive start across the globe yesterday until the last hurdle as the S&P 500 slipped around 1.5% from the European close to end -0.07%. The narrative explaining the reversal centred around more hawkish Fed speak but short-end markets didn’t move at all over this period so one has to be cautious on the reasons for the dip.
For the record though, Atlanta Fed President Bostic indicated that the Fed was committed to raising interest rates into a “5-5.25% range” and then holding there through 2024 in order to stamp down on excess demand in the economy. The length of time and the implication that rate cuts were not imminent seems to have been what the market grabbed on to, and this mirrors the comments from the FOMC minutes earlier this month, which indicated the Fed’s concern over a “pause” being mistaken by the market as a “pivot”. Bostic also was in favour of slowing rate hikes to 25bps in February if the inflation print on Thursday showed consumer prices cooling after the payrolls data last Friday showed slowing wage growth. Separately, San Francisco Fed President Daly said that she expected the fed funds rate to reach above 5% but that the final level is dependent on incoming inflation data, while highlighting how core services ex-housing has been a persistent source of pricing pressures. Neither Fed presidents are voting members this year, but offer a window into the FOMC’s thinking but as we said, Fed pricing was also little changed after these comments.
Those remarks come ahead of Fed Chair Powell today, who’ll be speaking at an event on central bank independence at 14:00 London time. It’s uncertain whether the topic in question will lead to an in-depth policy discussion, but if we do get any, a key question will be whether he entertains the prospect of a further downshift in the pace of rate hikes to 25bps. That’s currently the base case in markets, but clearly the CPI release on Thursday will be an influence on this and to future FOMC meetings too.
Most of the US session was more about pricing in less Fed hikes over the coming months with the 10yr yield down -2.59bps to 3.532% (fairly flat in Asia this morning). Investors also continued to downgrade their expectations for further hikes from the Fed, with the year-end rate at just 4.44%, down -4.2bps on the day. Those moves were given a further boost by data from the New York Fed, whose data on inflation expectations showed that 1yr expectations fell to a 17-month low in December of 5.0%. That said, the news wasn’t quite as positive when it came to longer time horizons, with 3yr expectations remaining at 3.0%, and 5yr expectations ticking up a tenth to 2.4%.
Even though US equities gave up gains, Tech stocks outperformed with yields lower, with both the NASDAQ (+0.63%) and particularly the FANG+ index (+2.41%) holding on to larger gains. Tesla (+5.9%) was the best performing member of the large-cap index and reduced its YTD losses to -2.77%. And back in Europe, the STOXX 600 (+0.88%) continued to move higher, bringing its 2023 YTD gains to +5.52%, and marking out European equities as one of the top 2023 performers so far.
However, one area that struggled yesterday were European sovereigns, with yields on 10yr bunds (+1.8bps) and OATs (+1.1bps) both rising, even if both had come off their earlier session highs. That followed data showing that Euro Area unemployment remained at a record low of 6.5% in November, which points to a historically tight labour market that could lead to further wage and hence inflationary pressures. Gilts were one of the biggest underperformers, with the 10yr yield up +5.4bps on the day amidst a speech from BoE chief economist Pill. In his remarks, he said that “the distinctive context that prevails in the UK… creates the potential for inflation to prove more persistent”.
In terms of currencies, the US Dollar index (-0.85%) weakened to its lowest level since early June, which brings its declines to almost -10% (-9.73%) since its peak in late-September, back when the UK mini-budget turmoil was at its height and global markets were selling off more broadly. This decline in the dollar very much leans into our strategists’ latest FX blueprint, where they write that various forces such as a reversal in the European energy shock and the economic reopening in China have bearish implications for the dollar with a target of $1.15 by year-end (current $1.07). You can read their full piece here.
That dollar weakness went hand-in-hand with noticeably tighter CDS spreads for most of the day, hitting levels we haven’t seen in months. For instance in Europe, the iTraxx Crossover tightened -8.4bps to 417bps, meaning it’s now more than -250bps beneath its own peak in late-September and the tightest since April. Meanwhile in the US, the CDX HY spread was down -10bps to 438bps at one point, its tightest level since August, before the late turn in risk assets saw CDX HY spreads wider (+1.9bps) on the day. A reminder that we revised our already bullish Euro Q1 credit spreads forecasts tighter over the weekend. See the piece here.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning with the Hang Seng (-0.34%), the Shanghai Composite (-0.18%) and the CSI (-0.10%) lower whilst the KOSPI (+0.31%) and Nikkei (+0.76%) are edging higher with the latter reopening following a public holiday. DM stock futures are pricing in a weaker start with contracts on the S&P 500 (-0.28%), NASDAQ 100 (-0.35%) and the DAX (-0.85%) all trading in the red.
Early morning data showed broadening signs of inflationary pressures in Japan after Tokyo’s core consumer prices advanced +4.0% y/y in December – the fastest pace in four decades and beating market expectations of a +3.8% gain and against a +3.6% increase last month. With the core inflation figure staying above the BOJ’s 2% price target for the seventh consecutive month, it further heightens the possibility of an additional rise in the nationwide CPI.
There wasn’t much in the way of other data yesterday, although German industrial production grew by +0.2% in November (vs. +0.3% expected), and the previous month’s decline was revised to show a larger -0.4% contraction (vs. -0.1% previously).
To the day ahead now, and there are an array of central bank speakers including Fed Chair Powell, BoE Governor Bailey, BoJ Governor Kuroda, BoC Governor Macklem, and the ECB’s Schnabel, De Cos, and Knot. Otherwise, data releases include French industrial production for November, and in the US there’s the NFIB’s small business optimism index for December.
AND NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)
Tepid APAC tone continues with fresh drivers somewhat limited pre-Powell – Newsquawk US Market Open
TUESDAY, JAN 10, 2023 – 06:32 AM
European bourses are under pressure, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.5%, in a continuation of the tepid APAC tone amid minimal newsflow.
Goldman Sachs lifts its 2023 EZ GDP forecast to 0.6% (prev. -0.1%), no longer expects a euro-area recession.
US futures are similarly contained and are diverging slightly around the unchanged mark pre-Powell; newsquawk primer available.
Dollar is trying to regroup ahead of Fed Chair Powell, but DXY is heavy on the 103.000 handle and mixed vs majors.
Bonds retreat further from peaks in consolidation and consideration of heavy conventional and syndicated issuance.
Crude benchmarks spent much of the European morning little changed, but have recently broken out of and eclipsed initial parameters, with upside of circa. USD 0.50/bbl as such.
Looking ahead, highlights include a speech from Fed’s Powell & supply from the US.
Crude benchmarks spent much of the European morning little changed, but have recently broken out of and eclipsed initial parameters, with upside of circa. USD 0.50/bbl as such.
Barclays remains constructive on the space reiterating its Brent 2023 forecast of USD 98/bbl; writing there is the potential for USD 15-25/bbl of downside if the slump in global manufacturing worsens..
Goldman Sachs cut its Summer 2023 TTF price forecast by EUR 80 to EUR 100/MWh, citing exceptionally warm realised and forecast weather, as well as strong energy conservation.
Iraq’s December crude production was unchanged from November at 4.43mln BPD; in-line with its OPEC+ quota.
Large Chinese nickel producer Tsingshan is in talks with struggling Chinese copper plants regarding processing its material which could double Chinese refined nickel output this year, according to Mining.com.
LME says further work will be required to prepare and communicate to the market a detailed implementation plan re. the Oliver Wydman review.
Spot gold and silver are diverging a touch and remain in close proximity to the unchanged mark in similarly narrow ranges, base metals are generally contained though the negative APAC bias remains in play.
Goldman Sachs lifts its 2023 EZ GDP forecast to 0.6% (prev. -0.1%), no longer expects a euro-area recession.
ECB’s Schnabel says greening monetary policy requires structural changes to our monetary policy framework rather than adjustments to our reaction function. Preliminary inflation data for December point to a persistent build-up of underlying price pressures even as energy price inflation has started to subside. Interest rates will still have to rise significantly at a steady pace to reach levels that are sufficiently restrictive.
WHO Emergency Committee to meet re. COVID on January 27th.
NOTABLE DATA
US NFIB Business Optimism Index (Dec) 89.8 (Prev. 91.9)
UK BRC Retail Sales Like-For-Like YY (Dec) 6.5% (Prev. 4.1%); Total Sales YY (Dec) 6.9% (Prev. 4.2%)
Barclaycard UK December consumer spending rose 4.4% Y/Y.
Norwegian Consumer Price Index MM (Dec) 0.1% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. -0.2%); YY (Dec) 5.9% vs. Exp. 6.1% (Prev. 6.5%)
Norwegian Core Inflation MM (Dec) 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. -0.1%); YY (Dec) 5.8% vs. Exp. 5.7% (Prev. 5.7%)
US Pentagon is mulling sending Stryker armoured vehicles to Ukraine in an upcoming aid package, according to people familiar with the matter cited by Politico.
UK is willing to send battle tanks to Ukraine with PM Sunak supportive of Challenger II supply that could provide Ukrainian President Zelensky with a ‘knockout punch’, according to The Telegraph.
Russian Defence Minister Shoigu says Moscow will develop its nuclear triad and be the main guarantee of Russian sovereignty, according to Interfax.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin is support above the USD 17k mark, holding towards the top-end of USD 17133-17294 parameters.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks traded mostly lower as the risk appetite in the region stalled following a similar handover from Wall St where the major indices failed to sustain early gains despite a further dovish Fed repricing.
ASX 200 was lacklustre amid weakness in industrials and mining stocks, although price action was rangebound amid the lack of any major fresh drivers.
Nikkei 225 outperformed as it played catch-up to Monday’s advances on return from the extended weekend but with upside capped as participants also reflected on weak Household Spending and firm Tokyo CPI data releases.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were indecisive as the border reopening euphoria faded and despite reports that China will cut VAT for small businesses, while the PBoC also continued to drain liquidity.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
Chinese state media noted that the COVID-19 wave is past its peak in many parts of China.
China’s embassy in South Korea stopped issuing short-term visas for Korean citizens visiting China and said it will adjust policy subject to the lifting of South Korea’s discriminatory entry restrictions against China, according to Reuters. Subsequently, the embassies in Japan took the same step.
China’s State Planner publishes registration rules for mid- & long-term foreign borrowings by companies, aimed at promoting orderly offshore financing.
PBoC is to increase financial support for domestic demand and the supply system, to guide the balance sheets of high-quality real estate enterprises back to a safe range, ensure steady and orderly property financing.
DATA RECAP
Tokyo CPI YY (Dec) 4.0% vs. Exp. 4.0% (Prev. 3.8%)
Tokyo CPI Ex. Fresh Food YY (Dec) 4.0% vs. Exp. 3.8% (Prev. 3.6%); Ex. Fresh Food & Energy YY (Dec) 2.7% vs. Exp. 2.7% (Prev. 2.5%)
Japanese All Household Spending MM (Nov) -0.9% vs. Exp. -0.5% (Prev. 1.1%); YY (Nov) -1.2% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. 1.2%)
1.c TUESDAY/ MONDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 6.58 PTS OR0.21% //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 56.85 PTS OR 0.27% /The Nikkei closed UP 201/71 PTS OR .78% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.26% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN TO 6.7814//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN TO 6.7979// /Oil DOWN TO 75.02 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 79.88 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
2 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
end
2B JAPAN
Japan
end
3c CHINA /
CHINA/RUSSIA/BRI
END
CHINA/USA/RUSSIA/GLOBE
.
end
CHINA/TAIWAN
end
CHINA/COVID
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS/UK AFFAIRS//
SWEDEN/TURKEY/NATO
This is nuts: Turkey must be thrown out of NATO despite INCIRLIK
(/Smith/NakedCapitalism)
Sweden Won’t Meet Turkey Demands To Win Its Vote On NATO Membership
Ooh, things are getting to be fun! Nothing like watching geopolitical jousting out in the open. Here, we have the US (and NATO) attempting to push around Türkiye, a country that holds far too many cards to meekly accept Western dictates. The immediate contratemps that has just heated up is Türkiye’s threat to block Sweden’s bid to join NATO, which any NATO member can bar. Türkiye demanded that Sweden stop supporting what Türkiye deems to be Kurdish terrorists and made specific requests, including extraditions. It seemed highly unlikely that Sweden would be willing to accede to all of Türkiye’s demands, and Sweden just said so:
Conventional wisdom is that Türkiye will eventually knuckle under and will waive Finland and Sweden in. It would be too monstrously embarrassing and would worsen rifts in the bloc otherwise. But Türkiye will need some sort of bribe to go along. And is has to be visible for the sake of Erdogan depicting that he go something in return for his partial climbdown on his Kurdish terrorist position. But what might that sweetener be?
If you were to read only, say, the likes of the Economist, you’d have the strong impression that Türkiye was a vassal state that doesn’t know its place.
After a period of intensive negotiations, Jens Stoltenberg, Nato’s secretary general, said on Tuesday evening: “I am pleased to announce that we now have an agreement that paves the way for Finland and Sweden to join Nato.”
“Turkey, Finland and Sweden have signed a memorandum that addresses Turkey’s concerns, including around arms exports and the fight against terrorism,” he added….
[Swedish Prime Minister Magdelena] Andersson said she had shown the Turkish leader changes in Sweden’s terrorism legislation set to come into force next month.
“And of course, we will continue our fight against terrorism and as Nato members also do so with closer cooperation with Turkey,” the Swedish premier said.
NATO and EU leaders acted as if everything was settled. But voting on accepting the application and voting to approve membership are two different matters. Türkiye and Hungary have not yet approved the Sweden/Finland ascension (Hungary’s is allegedly because its Parliament hasn’t gotten to it yet, but some commentators contend pro-Russian officials are throwing sand in the gears).
Erdogan held back Türkiye’s approval for Sweden because he wanted to see performance on Sweden’s commitments. One of Edogan’s asks that Sweden agreed to, which at the time struck me as something Sweden either would or could not deliver on, was the extradition of specific individuals. From EUObserver:
Turkey has demanded Sweden extradite 33 Kurdish separatists and people linked to “FETÖ” — Ankara’s name for followers of Fethullah Gülen, a US-based Muslim leader, whom Erdoğan blames for organising a failed coup in 2016.
Sweden has so far extradited two.
In fact, Sweden had signaled that it was unlikely to comply much if at all with the extradition part of the deal. Again from EUObserver:
The agreement to secure Türkiye’s vote for Sweden blew up over the attempt to extradite a publisher who is part of Fethullah Gülen and Erdogan sees as an important figure in the coup attempt against him.From Associated Press:
Sweden’s top court on Monday rejected an extradition request for a man wanted by Turkey, saying the Scandinavian country does not criminalize the act he is accused of committing.
In a statement, the Swedish Supreme Court said there were “obstacles to extradition because it is a matter of so-called political crimes, i.e. crimes that are directed against the state and that are political in nature.”
The court in Stockholm said there was “a risk of persecution based on the person’s political views” if he were returned to Turkey.
The court did not name the man who was the subject of Turkey’s request. Swedish news agency TT identified him as Bulent Kenes and said the Turkish government wants him in connection with a 2016 coup attempt.
Erdogan has made clear that Kenes was a priority. Again from Associated Press:
Erdogan singled Kenes out last month during a joint news conference with the Swedish prime minister in Ankara.
“There is one member of the (Gulen) terrorist organization in Sweden, whose name I will give: Bulent Kenes,” Erdogan said. “For example, the deportation of this terrorist to Turkey is of great importance to us, and we of course want Sweden to act with more sensitivity (on the issue).”
Turkish authorities have expanded the list of people, the majority of them political dissidents, whose extradition is demanded from Sweden, increasing the number from 33 to 42, Turkish Minute reported, citing Radio Sweden.
Sweden and Finland broke with decades of military non-alignment and applied to join NATO in response to Russia’s February invasion of Ukraine. Turkey and Hungary are the only NATO members yet to ratify the Nordic neighbors’ applications.
Turkey has accused Finland and Sweden, in particular, of providing a safe haven for outlawed Kurdish groups it deems “terrorists” as well as some political dissidents and has refrained from ratifying their NATO bids despite an agreement in Madrid in June.
According to Radio Sweden, the Turkish government’s list of people whose extradition is demanded from Sweden includes 16 alleged members of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), 12 people with alleged links to the faith-based Gülen movement and seven people from leftist groups in addition to seven people who are accused of such crimes as smuggling.
However, Sweden said it is done with catering to Türkiye to get its NATO vote. From the Financial Times:
Sweden has said Turkey is demanding concessions that Stockholm cannot give to approve its application to join Nato as the prime minister insisted the country had done all it could to meet Ankara’s concerns.
Ulf Kristersson, the new centre-right leader, on Sunday threw down the gauntlet to Turkey in the clearest indication yet from Stockholm that it could do no more to help persuade Turkey to drop its opposition to Sweden and neighbouring Finland joining the western military alliance.
“Turkey confirms that we have done what we said we would do. But they also say that they want things that we can’t and won’t give them. So the decision is now with Turkey,” Kristersson told a Swedish defence conference.
[Foreign Minister Mevlut] Cavusoglu said Turkey appreciated Sweden’s steps so far. “However, there is no concrete development regarding the extradition of terrorism-related criminals and the freezing of their assets,” he said….
“If Sweden wants to be a NATO ally, we have to see concrete cooperation. The negotiations are carried out in a positive atmosphere, but the denial of extradition of Kenes has intoxicated this atmosphere,” Cavusoglu said at the press meet.
In other words, Türkiye clearly reminded Sweden that it had not delivered on its commitments. Türkiye reminded Sweden that it needed to follow through to get Türkiye’s NATO vote. But Sweden is now trying to present Türkiye as somehow having come around to Sweden’s position.
Where is the counter-offer? At a minimum, it sure looks like 23 people were good candidates for extradition. Using a high-profile single case as a basis for dropping the entire matter looks like bad faith. After all, 2/3 of the attempts so far had succeeded.
This is a very long winded introduction to a key point, that Türkiye has tons of leverage and therefore has and will continue to play the Collective West off against the rest of the world. The only way that stops would be if NATO manages to do an own goal on the order of the anti-Russia economic sanctions and gets Türkiye to hike out of NATO. There’s no process for removing a NATO member2 Türkiye very very much likes the advantage it gets against Russia by being in NATO, so it is extremely unlikely that Türkiye would depart of its own accord.
So Türkiye in NATO looks increasingly like those old pre-nup marriages, where both parties really would like to be done with each other but can’t afford to get divorced.3 Türkiye’s assets include:
The Dardanelles
Second biggest NATO army, and the biggest in the European theater:
Incirlik Air Base. This is the airbase the US uses for Middle Eastern operations. And reflecting Türkiye’s position, it’s not run on normal US-as-occupier airbase lines. From MilitaryBases.com:
The base is in Turkey, which means that it is operated by both the US and the Turkish governments, unlike other co-bases. Most other military installations are operated by the US government, but under the regulation of the hosting government.
Incirlik has held (as of 2016) and may still hold as many as 50 hydrogen warheads.
Things started to go very pear shaped with the US after the 2016 coup attempt. Aljazeera gives a very good overview. Erdogan is very unhappy that the US has refused to extradite Fethullah Gulen. While Türkiye apparently has not come up with strong enough evidence of Gulen’s personal involvement, it’s not hard to see that a Muslim cleric in the normally not very Muslim-friendly US having a very lavish compound would generate suspicion back home.
This is far from a complete list of dust-ups since then:
Calls in 2016 for Türkiye to be expelled from NATO due to its ouster of Gulen allies (mind you, the purge had started in 2013 but intensified greatly after the coup attempt)
Türkiye ordering Russian S-400 air-defense systems, now twice, leading the US to cancel F-35 sales to Türkiye.4 That might seem like a gift except Türkiye is listed as a funder of the program, which at a minimum means having invested in factories to make some parts. Note that Türkiye signed the deal in 2017. The US cut Türkiye out of the F-35 program the month after Türkiye accepted the first delivery, in 2019. The Trump Administration imposed additional sanctions on Türkiye in December 2020.
The afore-alluded-to 2019 fury when Türkiye launched Operation Spring, against Kurdish (as in American-backed) forces in Syria. Erdogan poured gas on the fire by threatening to stop barring Syrian refugees from entering Europe if he wasn’t allowed to have his way.
Türkiye making some of the right noises about Russia’s conflict in Ukraine but still maintaining and even expanding relations with Russia. Ankara has been explicit: Ukraine and Russia are neighbors and it intends to stay on good terms with both. Türkiye did supply Ukraine with much-touted Bayrakter drones….that wound up big time underperforming. And as we’ll flesh out a bit more below, the Collective West regards Türkiye as not doing its part to support the war against Russia.
However, Türkiye entered into a big economic deal with Russia. The West has tried to block some elements, such as Türkiye banks accepting the Mir card. Türkiye and Russia expect to have work-arounds in place by summer 2023.
The West also can’t be happy at the prospect of Syria and Türkiye teaming up, with Russia helping to broker the deal, to go against “terrorists” which will include pretty much all of the US cat’s paws.
On the Türkiye side, I suspect but can’t prove that one of the reasons for its tart opposition to the Sweden/Finland membership offers was that it was not consulted in advance.
Today, Conor Gallagher provides an important, long-form treatment of a development that Türkiye regards in and of itself as a huge betrayal: the US working with Greece to place missiles on Aegean islands that by treaty were pledged to stay unarmed. The US rationale is that Türkiye has not been an aggressive enough NATO operative, for instance, in its refusal to let warships enter the Black Sea, and more generally, declining to operate as a US/NATO hub in the war, so it is using Greece to get at Moscow. But Türkiye has repeatedly complained that it is also in Greek crosshairs, and Conor and other analysts believe the US moves are meant to punish pressure Türkiye.
Erdogan has reacted in his typical very impolitic manner, leading to further harrumphing that his words prove he’s not a fit member of civilized society. From the Express in mid-December:
Speaking during a town hall meeting with youths in the northern Turkish city of Samsun on Saturday, Erdogan said Turkey had begun making its own short-range ballistic missiles called Tayfun, which, he said, was “frightening the Greeks.”
”(The Greeks) say ‘It can hit Athens’,” said Erdogan, whose comments were aired late Sunday.
He added: “Of course it will. If you don’t stay calm, if you try to buy things from the United States and other places (to arm) the islands, a country like Turkey … has to do something.”
Let’s return to the headline issue: will this Türkiye threat over Sweden just prove to be a show of bluster, as most of the press has been treating it (as well as NATO itself, which has been inviting Sweden and Finland to meetings and extending other privileges normally afforded only to members)? In light of all of the above, that may not be such a safe bet.
Türkiye, interestingly like India, has been trying to navigated a geopolitically independent, self-interested course. But India is not a key member of a US dominated security alliance.
It is hard to calibrate Türkiye messaging compared to its intent. If Türkiye regards the arming of Greece as a serious security threat, which seems likely, it is logical to assume that Türkiye will continue to withhold its approval of Sweden and Finland until the US winds that program back at least to a degree. It’s a clear leverage point on a matter to which the West has hopelessly committed itself.5
However, the US has likely convinced itself that using Greece to mount a joint threat against Russia and Türkiye is strategically necessary. And since it is becoming hard to paper over that the Ukraine war is not going well (witness, for instance the recent Washington Post op-ed by Condoleeza Rice and Robert Gates, Time is not on Ukraine’s side), the US is likely to engage in displacement: since it isn’t getting what it wants in Ukraine, it is going to make damned sure it gets what it wants elsewhere. That means NATO expansion among other things. The odds appear high that the US would regard Türkiye as intransigent and at a time when it feels it can’t afford even an optical setback, as in further delay in getting the Nordic nations in NATO. But instead of giving Türkiye a sweetener, the US and NATO have been big on sticks. So I would expect things to get worse before they get better on this front. And they may not get better.
END
SWITZERLAND//SNB
The SNB lost 143 billion dollars last year
(zerohedge)
Massive Hedge Fund, Also Known As Swiss National Bank, Suffers Colossal $143 Billion Loss In 2022
TUESDAY, JAN 10, 2023 – 06:55 AM
The last time we looked at the massive money-printing (literally) hedge fund that also moonlights as the Swiss National Bank, we were stunned to learn that its US equity holdings had exploded to a record $177 billion at the end of Q1 2022, orders of magnitude more than the mere $27 billion it held as recently as 2014.
Since then things haven’t gone exactly as planned for the massive asset gatherer, and the value of its US equity longs has tumbled by almost $50 billion from the record high in Q1 to $139.8 billion as of Q3, a two year low… and a huge loss despite the fact that all the SNB has to do is print some more Swiss Francs, sell them for dollars and then simply buy some more stonks to plug whatever P&L holes it has.
But while we wait for the SNB’s year-end 13F which should be published in about a month’s time, we already know the damage suffered by the Swiss hedge fund in 2021 and it is staggering: on Monday, the SNB reported an annual loss of 132 billion Swiss francs, or $143 billion, for fiscal 2022, the biggest loss in its 115-year history as falling stock and fixed-income markets hit the value of its share and bond portfolio. The recent drop in the US Dollar also did not help.
Monday’s provisional figure, which marked a reverse from a 26 billion franc profit in 2021, was far bigger than the previous record loss of 23 billion francs chalked up in 2015, and according to Reuters, it is equivalent to slightly more than the annual GDP of Morocco.
According to the bank, the bulk of the loss, or 131 billion francs, was from its foreign currency positions – a broad term used to describe the more than 800 billion francs in stocks and bonds the SNB bought during a long campaign to weaken the Swiss franc. Indicatively, the amount is also almost precisely the same as the GDP of Switzerland.
The losses accelerated as global stock and bond markets tumbled in unison – 2022 was the first year in over a century when both stock and bond market suffered double digit losses – as central banks around the world, including the SNB, hiked interest rates to combat inflation. Meanwhile, the strong Swiss franc – which rose above parity against the euro in July – also led to exchange rate-related losses.
And while the SNB lost money in pretty much everything there was one solitary asset class that generated a profit (take a wild guess which one): that’s right, the SNB’s gold holdings which stood at 1,040 tonnes at the end of 2021, gained 400 million francs in value during 2022.
The 2022 loss meant the central bank will not make its usual payout to the Swiss central and regional governments, it said. Last year the SNB paid out 6 billion francs. In fact, if the SNB followed similar accounting rules and logic as any other bank, it would have been wiped out with a loss that obliterated all of its equity capital. But in the magical world of seigniorage, where central banks are assumed to be able to print – again, literally – their way out of everything, the bank never loses and the SNB will continue its merry existence as if nothing happened.
Still, the loss is unlikely to have an impact on SNB policy. It hiked interest rates three times in 2022 as Chairman Thomas Jordan moved to stem high Swiss inflation, analysts said.
“The SNB’s colossal losses will not change its monetary policy at all,” said Karsten Junius, an economist at J.Safra Sarasin. “The high reputation of the SNB helps that it doesn’t have to change anything.”
Well, it may have a record loss that’s bigger than the GDP of most medium-sized countries, but at least it has its “high reputation” earned courtesy of years of laborious and exhausting… money printing. And yes, because we live in a kangaroo world in which there are never any adverse consequences for colossal central bank stupidity, the SNB’s monetary policy will most certainly not change at all.
end
GERMANY/UKRAINIANS
How long can Germany keep this up?
Robert Hryniak
12:45 PM (52 minutes ago)
to
There are up to 1 million Ukrainians coming to Germany, and they are alowed to stay and get money from German government.
Until November 2021, 85 000 people from Ukraine came to Berlin as refugees, only a thousand Ukrainians in Berlin are working. Germany has no place for more refugees. There are lots of Ukrainian men among the refugees as well. Lots of Roma people are coming as Ukrainian refugees but in reality they are from the Balkans. Also thousands of black people come from Ukraine as refugees calling themselves ”students”.
EU is paying for the transportation of wounded soldiers to German hospitals. Treatment of Ukrainian soldiers is paid by the German health insurance. As long as these Neocon parties are in power, German will send more weapons, even for 20 years. It is a vassal of America. Disagree, then ask yourself why how and why Jake Sullivan demands that Italy send its’ best air defense systems for free to Ukraine? Not that it will change anything but it is better than the Patriot system.
Can there be government change in the US? Maybe the USA loses the interest to fight war in Ukraine. The conflict in Ukraine is possible to solve only in diplomatic way. Ukraine needs to start diplomatic initiative, not just for itself but for Europe too. And the fools who lend money will take a write down. As for the Ukraine the population has been reduced to 18-20 million now. It will never recover.
5.UKRAINE RUSSIA//MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
TURKEY/RUSSIA//SYRIA/USA/UAE
This is bothering the uSA to no end: Erdogan hints at a Assad meeting amid Moscow reconciliation talks. Tom Luongo discussed this very topic with us yesterday
(the Cradle)
US Alarmed As Erdogan Hints At Assad Meeting Amid Moscow Reconciliation Talks
During a speech in Ankara last Thursday, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan hinted that a meeting with his Syrian counterpart Bashar al-Assad may soon take place, “as part of efforts for peace.” He added that a tripartite meeting between the foreign ministers of Turkiye, Russia and Syria is scheduled to be held in the near future for the first time since 2011.
Erdogan said, “As Russia-Turkey-Syria, we have launched a process through the meeting of our intelligence chiefs and defense ministers in Moscow. Then, God willing, we will bring our foreign ministers together trilaterally. Then, depending on the developments, we will come together as leaders.”Via Reuters
The upcoming meeting aims to enhance communication after Russian-sponsored talks between the Turkish and Syrian defense ministers were held in Moscow on 28 December. The meeting was the highest-level of official meetings between Ankara and Damascus since the start of the Syrian war.
In a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin on 5 January, Erdogan called on the Syrian government to ‘take the steps to achieve a tangible solution concerning the case of Syria.”
The US sis seeking to establish a middle ground between Ankara and the SDF in order to prevent Turkish-Syrian reconciliation.
The Syrian-Turkish rapprochement via declared Russian mediation was paralleled by Emirati-Syrian rapprochement – the latest of which was a “brotherly” meeting aimed at strengthening cooperation and restoring historical relations between Assad and Foreign Minister of the UAE Abdallah bin Zayed Al-Nahyan, according to SANA.
Saudi newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat reported that the UAE seeks “to join Russia in sponsoring Syrian-Turkish relations at a high level,” noting that the Emirati foreign minister’s visit to Damascus sought to arrange Turkiye’s participation in the tripartite meeting of Syrian-Turkish-Russian foreign ministers, making it a quadripartite meeting.
The meeting is meant to pave the way for a presidential meeting between Erdogan and Assad in the presence of Putin. Reportedly, the UAE has offered to host this summit, with a possibility of a high-level UAE official being present at the meeting if it will be held in Moscow.
Asharq Al-Awsat added that Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu plans to visit Washington on 16-17 January to brief US officials on the developments of Turkish-Syrian normalization, his meeting with Syrian Foreign Minister Faysal Mikdad, and the “roadmap” sponsored by Moscow in the context of security, military, political and economic fields – as agreed upon by the defense ministers as well as the intelligence chiefs in Syria, Turkiye and Russia over the past weeks.
As Turkey has been launching successive operations against Kurdish groups both on the Turkish-Syrian border as well as within Syria itself under ‘Operation Claw Sword,’ a Western official informed Asharq Al-Awsat that a high-ranking US official will be visiting Ankara in the coming hours as part of efforts to mediate between Turkiye and the SDF in northeastern Syria.
Ankara has demanded that Moscow and Washington commit to the implementation of the bilateral military agreements signed at the end of 2019. The agreements stipulate the withdrawal of the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to beyond 30 kilometers from the Turkish border, and from the areas of Manbij and Tal Rifaat, in addition to the withdrawal of all heavy weaponry.
The SDF says that it has fulfilled its obligations, and will not withdraw its police force – known as the Asayish – nor dismantle its local councils, despite Turkiye’s insistence on dissolving all Kurdish military and civil institutions in the area.
Meanwhile, Cavusoglu told media on 29 December that Ankara is willing to withdraw from the territory it occupies in northern Syria and hand it over to Damascus in the event that “political stability” is reached – after cooperation in “neutralizing ISIS members, the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and the YPG.”
The Saudi newspaper’s report stated that US mediation seeks to reach a “compromise” between the Kurdish groups and Ankara without a new Turkish incursion taking place ahead of the Turkish presidential and parliamentary elections in mid-2023. This mediation seems to be an attempt at circumventing the imminent Syrian-Turkish reconciliation.
Another official source disclosed that Ankara was “uncomfortable with the leaks following the meeting of the Syrian, Turkish and Russian defense ministers in Moscow, and that it had agreed to a full withdrawal.” However, the source confirmed that, “it is true that Ankara and Damascus consider the PKK a common threat, and will work against any separatist agenda, because it is an existential threat to both countries,” adding that the two countries will “work to open the Aleppo-Latakia Highway.”
Following the UAE’s visit to Damascus, which came after the US called on its allies and international partners to refrain from normalizing ties with Syria, Asharq Al-Awsat quoted an official as saying that the US has been the only western country to issue a statement against normalization, and is working alongside Paris, Berlin, and London to assume a united stance against normalization with Syria.
Communication is currently underway for a meeting between the representatives of Paris, Berlin, London, and Washington and UN Special Envoy for Syria Geir Pederson in Geneva on 23 January. This meeting will take place before Pedersen’s visit to Damascus to meet with the Syrian foreign minister to “confirm the position against normalization, and support the provision of funding for electricity projects within the timeline of early recovery,” stipulated by a resolution for international aid that will be extended before 10 January.
Asharq Al-Awsat said that the UAE has proposed to contribute to the funding of economic and electrical projects in Syria – within the confines of the Caesar Act.
Simultaneously, Jordan, who was the first to open high-level channels of communication with Damascus, is leading efforts alongside other Arab countries to reach a “united Arab position that defines Arab demands in order to make normalization possible.”
The newspaper quoted another western official as saying that Jordan is calling for coordination to put pressure on Damascus to provide political and geopolitical steps for the coming phase in southern Syria, as Amman confirmed that there has been an increase in the smuggling of Captagon, weapons and ammunition across the Syrian border following the start of the normalization process. Additionally, Amman has said that the Iranian presence in southern Syria near the Jordanian border has not diminished, and that there has been an expansion of ISIS activity in the area, according to the official.
Syria’s Arab League membership was suspended in November of 2011 following the start of the Syrian war, and it has been excluded ever since.
end
RUSSIA/UKRAINE
Ukrainian dominoes fall: Russians sweep Soledar and enter Blagodatnoye, Paraskovievka – Seversk-Bakhmut-Slaviansk communications cut off – WarNews247
Robert Hryniak
10:32 AM (3 hours ago)
to
The reality is that the Russian meat grinder is slowly advancing with a combined Integration of artillery, robotics, drones and common weaponry deployment. This is what modern war is about. IT IS NOT what Ukrainians have trained for. Nor is it a killing field by superior NATO weaponry against a sandaled ill equipped opponent, like in Afghanistan ( which America lost). Rather this is a conflict with what is a peer or superior opponent with advantages in all manner of equipment. It is actually a painful event because the outcome can be forecast with stark clarity.
So why does anyone expect anything more or less than defeat on the battlefield? In the past i have written about how both sides are using the fighting to develop newer systems to gain advantage/ the key differences are in the fact that Russia is and has developed counter measures to the equipment being sent faster than any new advances by the West, who lacks a war time production capacity. Therefore, new targeting systems like “Penicillin” ( picks up HIMAR and the like within 2 minutes with a targeting solution sent to artillery batteries) are deadly and effective. It helps the Ukies sold a HIMAR system to the Russians for $100,000 so they could take it apart and study it. And now that South Korea has sent its’ artillery shells, Pakistani comes up next for delivery to Ukraine of another 159 containers of shells by boat. Does anyone not understand that it will be a Russian decision as to whether these containers make to front lines as a calculation of how many need to die? Surely, Russia can destroy such supply at will.
While there may be a winter campaign by the Russians, one might opinion, better to let NATO and America to come forth to be gutted in old style war tactics that do not work on a modern battlefield. This is lost cause regardless, that will only kill many more soldiers and civilians in days to come. And continue to exhaust Europe through ongoing sanctions.
And while one wonders about the wisdom of projected hegemony failing in real time. The fact that American borders go undefended against a gang war occurring in Mexico is really crazy. What few people know is that the Chinese military has taken over part of the Mexican drug business and is pushing its’ production into America and Canada fighting with local Mexican gangs. Chinese military guard these production facilities. One would think this would be more pressing a American priority than trying to fight a proxy war with Russia that America cannot win. What can occur as it is now that Ukraine gets exhausted with Poland stepping up to be the next sacrifice on the altar of collapsing hegemony.
Protests galore in the west as Iran executes a 22 year old karate champion. They are set to execute more young men arrested in protests. The west should pull their diplomats
(zerohedge)
Iran To Execute More Young Men Arrested In Protests As West Weighs Diplomatic Expulsions
MONDAY, JAN 09, 2023 – 07:20 PM
Since the start of the September ‘anti-hijab’ protests triggered by the death in police custody of Mahsa Aimini, Iran has launched a major crackdown which has included the arrests of many thousands, but more recently has involved unprecedented protest-related executions.
Four Iranian citizens have been executed so far for what state authorities have dubbed ‘terrorist’ acts. There are widespread reports that two more detainees are about to be executed at a prison in the suburbs of Tehran, after hasty trials.
Family members of one of the men, 22-year-old Mohammad Ghobadlou, have reportedly joined protests outside the prison. He along with the other prisoner, Mohammad Boroughani, were reportedly transferred to solitary confinement which has sparked fears of their imminent execution, given this is typical treatment of death row inmates just prior to execution.
This comes after two men were executed only two days ago on Saturday, with The New York Times describing that they were hanged:
Iran on Saturday hanged two men, a 22-year-old national karate champion and a 39-year-old poultry worker, who participated in antigovernment demonstrations and whose executions were condemned as a ploy by the government to use violence and sow fear to crush the protests.
The men, Mohammad Mehdi Karami, the karate champion, and Sayed Mohammad Hosseini, the factory worker, were hanged at dawn on Saturday in the city of Karaj near the capital, Tehran, after hasty trials on charges that they participated in the killing of a member of the Basij paramilitary group in November, according to the judiciary.
Various Western countries have reportedly summoned the respective Iranian ambassadors in their capitals, demanding explanation. For example, France condemned the “appalling” Saturday executions and ongoing severe crackdown on ‘anti-hijab’ protesters.
Human rights groups have called it “open murder” and claimed that inmates are not receiving fair trials and face trumped-up charges. Iran’s foreign ministry has remain staunchly entrenched in defending the nation’s judicial process: “Remarks of self-styled defenders of human rights are replete with racist thoughts,” a statement posted to the foreign ministry’s website said.
Meanwhile, some countries like Canada are going so far as to mull expelling Iranian diplomats, saying that Islamic Republic ambassadors don’t truly represent their people. There have been growing calls in Germany to do the same.
Detained Iranian demonstrators have continued to receive harsh sentences, including years in prison, sometimes for what the rest of the world would deem mere exercise of free speech. But this has not yet served to stamp out the protests, but has in many cases only enraged people in the streets.
Why Do Vaccinated People Represent Most COVID-19 Deaths Right Now?
In Sept. 2021, President Joe Biden declared a “pandemic of the unvaccinated,” and blamed this on the roughly 80 million Americans who failed to get the COVID-19 shot.
However, by 2022, vaccinated people made up the majority of the population, with about 79 percent of adults having completed at least their initial shots.
The most recent Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) data now find the majority of adults dying of COVID-19 are vaccinated or boosted.
60 Percent of COVID-Related Deaths Among the Vaccinated
An alarming trend has become apparent: Vaccinated and boosted individuals account for a sharply increasing proportion of deaths from COVID-19.
Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF) showed in an analysis posted on the Peterson-KFF Health System Tracker, that about 4 in 10 COVID-related deaths were among the vaccinated or boosted by January 2022.
The most recent analysis of CDC data by KFF finds 6 out of 10 COVID-related deaths from April to August 2022 were among people with some level of vaccination.
According to KFF, this is due to a variety of factors relating to how many people were vaccinated earlier in the pandemic when the shots were first made available.
When the vaccines were first rolled out, people who received their initial series of injections represented only a small share of total deaths, because they were such a small number compared to the unvaccinated majority.
But that share was expected to rise as vaccinated people represented a growing share of the U.S. population. Ultimately, if everyone in the United States was vaccinated, then vaccinated people would represent 100 percent of COVID-19 deaths. The same would be observed among those who received a booster dose.
This is because some people who are up to date with vaccines will still get COVID-19, incidents which are considered “breakthrough infections.” As the CDC states, COVID-19 vaccination is effective at preventing severe illness and death, but the shots are not perfect.
Vaccine Benefit Has Become Marginal
The rising share of the vaccinated population is only one factor and doesn’t seem to explain all the increased deaths among vaccinated people over the last year.
KFF concluded that vaccination rates have only grown slightly during this time, yet the number of vaccinated people dying rose more steeply.
Another possible reason we’re seeing increased deaths among the vaccinated is that even in 2021, one study showed vaccine effectiveness waned significantly over time for all adults.
“The data is suggesting that at this point, with the vast majority of the population having had contact with either the infection or the vaccine, the effects of the vaccine are marginal,” Dr. Jacob Teitelbaum, an expert in long COVID and post-viral chronic fatigue syndrome and fibromyalgia, told The Epoch Times.
An Israeli study found vaccine efficacy dropped to the same as three doses just months afterward, while research funded by Moderna found their COVID vaccine’s effectiveness actually became negative over time.
Is Modern Medicine Causing More Harm Than Good?
The updated (bivalent) booster shots became widely available in September 2022, and uptake of those vaccinations has been slow throughout the country.
Dr. Robert G. Lahita, director of the Institute for Autoimmune and Rheumatic Disease at Saint Joseph Health, said the new booster is a tough sell because people are sick of vaccinations.
“People were told that the vaccine would prevent infection and it did not,” he continued. “The man in the street sees only his family and friends sick over and over again and they have all been vaccinated, so he says ‘what’s the point?’”
Teitelbaum also pointed out the possible limitations of modern medicine.
He said there are four areas where modern medicine has clearly been of benefit: antibiotics, acute surgical care, correctly used vaccines (smallpox, tetanus), and public hygiene.
“For many of the others, it’s often a toss-up whether our modern medical system causes more harm than good,” he said. Regardless, Lahita noted that turning our population—and especially our children—into “pincushions for more and more vaccines” isn’t the best idea.
“What I have found in my 50 years in medicine is that, as people take more and more boosters of the same vaccine, I see greater toxicity,” he noted.
An example of this would be the hepatitis B vaccine, where receiving more than two doses was associated with a number of cases in which Teitelbaum observed patients develop chronic fatigue syndrome.
Teitelbaum considers the two initial COVID-vaccine doses reasonable for people over 50 or who have diabetes, cancer, or other severe illnesses, or for children with leukemia or other severe diseases. However, he thinks it’s a mistake to give the vaccine to healthy children because their risk of death from infection is so low and the risks of the vaccines are still unknown.
Optimizing Your Immunity
Experts still have no idea why some people, vaccinated or not, have more severe COVID infections.
Lahita said this might be due to factors like genetics and a person’s overall lifestyle.
For example, obesity is associated with impaired immune function, as is type 2 diabetes. Both conditions are common in the United States and are lifestyle-related.
More severe COVID infections may also involve factors like someone’s individual gut microbiome, his or her environment, or particular immunogenetics (genetic basis of our immune response), said Lahita.
The recent COVID-19 outbreak in China also raises concerns.
China’s current COVID-19 outbreak is led by the Omicron subvariants BA.5.2 and BF.7, the World Health Organization (WHO) said on Jan. 4, 2023. Chinese data also show no new coronavirus variant has yet been identified, while also underrepresenting how many people have died in the rapidly spreading outbreak.
According to the most recent data, nearly 90 percent of the Chinese mainland population has been fully vaccinated.
“The Chinese outbreaks are worrisome,” explained Lahita, “because the virus tends to upregulate and mutate in large infected groups.” This could bring about a new spike in COVID-19 infections worldwide, as new variants appear—against which we’ll have no naturally acquired or vaccine-induced protection.
“I expect a new and possibly lethal variant for the near future,” Lahita warned.
Teitelbaum emphasized the importance of optimizing our immunity. He said this could easily be done by:
Sleeping a full eight hours every night, as sleep deprivation is a powerful way to suppress immunity.
Staying hydrated, but not with sugary drinks, which can suppress immunity.
Several key nutrients, especially zinc and vitamin D, are critical for dramatically improving immunity and outcomes in infections in general, especially in COVID-19.
“Personally, during COVID outbreaks (or when I had the infection), I take a mix of elderberry along with these nutrients,” said Teitelbaum.
George Citroner is a health reporter for The Epoch Times.
END
This Censorious Pfizer Board Member Was A Major Influence On Lockdowns
The latest of the Twitter Files is reported by Alex Berenson, who was granted access to messaging systems from the times before Elon Musk took over. His first round of reporting concerns the role of Scott Gottlieb, who is a perfect example of an influencer who is technically outside of government but might as well be a powerful official within it.
Gottlieb’s main gig now is as a senior fellow of the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, DC, but he also serves as a board member of Pfizer. Before joining AEI and Pfizer, he headed the Food and Drug Administration under Trump from 2017 to 2019. Before that, he was at Health and Human Services as a member of its Federal Health IT Policy Committee from 2013 to 2017.
You probably know him from TV because he has been a ubiquitous presence since the beginning of the pandemic lockdowns, defending the government’s actions and pushing the vaccines from the company whose board he serves.
In August 2021, he wrote Twitter to complain about a tweet from his successor at the FDA, Brett Giroir. Giroir wrote to report the results of a study in Israel that clearly demonstrated what most anyone could have known even without the study: natural immunity is superior to vaccinated immunity.
Gottlieb complained that the tweet is “corrosive” and might “go viral.” Twitter acted by slapping a “misleading” tag on the tweet, one that still remains to this day.
Here is the email.
Now, one might observe that Gottlieb is merely a private person and that it was certainly his right to object to anyone’s opinions. Maybe that’s true, except that he served Pfizer at the time and his company enjoyed billions in subsidies to make its product which not only gained a patent but benefitted from product-liability protection that is conventional with such vaccines. In addition, the product was only distributed thanks to an Emergency Use Authorization that bypassed the usual federal standards.
That aside, he had been massively influential on lockdown policies from the very beginning, urging the Trump administration to be as extreme as possible in its attack on civil liberties and freedoms.
We know this because Jared Kushner’s book reports every detail. He led the effort to present the guidelines for lockdowns that occurred on March 16, 2022, and he did it with the help of two tech executives he tapped to hang around the White House. Kushner reports:
As we dealt with the shortage of cotton swabs and other supplies, we faced another problem: the need to develop public health guidelines. Given that people across the country were confused and concerned, Birx and Fauci had been discussing the need for a unified set of federal standards to help Americans understand what they should do to keep themselves safe and slow the spread of the virus. They insisted that these guidelines would help prevent hospitals from becoming overwhelmed. Despite all the talk over the past week, no one had taken steps to produce a document. When Nat Turner flagged the issue, I asked him to coordinate with Derek Lyons to produce a draft and encouraged him to call Dr. Scott Gottlieb, the former head of the FDA and a renowned public health expert. I had been trying to persuade Gottlieb to come back into government for a short-term stint to help us better organize our response and support our effort to develop a vaccine.
When we called Gottlieb, he was grateful that we were preparing guidelines. “They should go a little bit further than you are comfortable with,” he said. “When you feel like you are doing more than you should, that is a sign that you are doing them right.”
So here we have a former government official now working as a board member for one of the companies chosen to produce and distribute vaccines who was directly involved and hugely influential in crafting a policy for the Trump administration that ended up not only dooming the Trump presidency but setting the entire country on the course to recession and a public health crisis. Still Pfizer benefited, obviously.
Sure enough, he got his way and the Trump administration issued the draconian guidance: “bars, restaurants, food courts, gyms, and other indoor and outdoor venues where groups of people congregate should be closed.”
And why call out Gottlieb alone when many thousands of serious scientists and medical professionals would have strongly advised against locking down?
This is why what Berenson reports here is so significant. Gottlieb was anxious not only to lock down the entire country but also to censor any report on what used to be common-sense observations about natural immunity, even when it comes from credentialed experts and cites peer-reviewed studies.
After his lockdown advocacy, and before his intervention to pull down a tweet celebrating natural immunity, but only after the vaccine came to market, he took to the pages of the Wall Street Journal to say that the CDC had gone too far, especially with its enforcement of social distancing: “The reliance on a flu model caused public-health authorities to underestimate and overestimate Covid in important ways.”
