Small Business Optimism Slump Signals Profit Margins Poised To Plunge

Authored by Simon White, Bloomberg macro strategist,

We had the December release for the NFIB index of Small Business Optimism yesterday, with the headline number turning back down after a brief fillip higher.

As the chart below shows, this portends that, after the services ISM slump last week, the manufacturing ISM should keep falling.

The NFIB survey also showed no relief in the compensation component. 

This points to economy-wide profit margins continuing to fall - potentially quite sharply - through the year.