Jan 13 · by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit
GOLD PRICE CLOSED: UP $22.90 at $1918.60
SILVER PRICE CLOSED: UP $0.46 to $24.27
Access prices: closes : 4: 15 PM
Gold ACCESS CLOSE 1918.90
Silver ACCESS CLOSE: 24.24
Bitcoin morning price:, 18,838 DOWN 19 DOLLARS
Bitcoin: afternoon price: $19,398 UP 541 dollars
Platinum price closing $1067.50 DOWN $5.45
Palladium price; closing 1790.85 DOWN $3.15
Due to the huge rise in the dollar, we must look at gold and silver in currencies other than the dollar to understand where we are heading
I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros/4: 15 PM ACCESS
CANADIAN GOLD: $2569.98 UP $31.00 CDN dollars per oz
BRITISH GOLD: 1568.90 UP 15.26 pounds per oz
EURO GOLD: 1771,96 UP 24.15 euros per oz
CONTRACT: JANUARY 2023 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,895.500000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 01/12/2023 DELIVERY DATE: 01/17/2023
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
118 C MACQUARIE FUT 1
363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 8
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 4
661 C JP MORGAN 86 17
737 C ADVANTAGE 13
880 H CITIGROUP 95
905 C ADM 3 1
TOTAL: 114 114
JPMorgan stopped 86/114
Click here if you wish to send a donation. I sincerely appreciate it as this site takes a lot of preparation.
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR JAN/2023. CONTRACT: 114 NOTICES FOR 11400 OZ or .3545 TONNES
total notices so far: 2143 contracts for 214300 oz (6.6656 tonnes)
SILVER NOTICES: 16 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 80,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month 836 for 4,180,000 oz
WITH GOLD UP $22.90
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: STRANGE A WITHDRAWAL OF OF 0.29 TONNES FROM THE GLD//
INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.14 TONNES
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP 46 CENTS
AT THE SLV// :/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// STRANGE:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.5 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV
CLOSING INVENTORY: 506.200 MILLION OZ (THIS IS ALSO A CRIME SCENE@!!!!
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 474 CONTRACTS TO 129,761 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR $0.44 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON THURSDAY. FOR THE PAST WEEK, OUR BANKERS HAVE RETURNED TO BEING NET SHORT AND THUS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.44 AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPEC LONGS, AS WE HAD A VERY STRONG GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1004 CONTRACTS. AS WELL, WE HAD ZERO EXCHANGE FOR RISK TRANSFER ( 0 CONTRACTS) AS THE TOTAL ISSUED SO FAR THIS MONTH TOTAL 3.75 MILLION OZ. WE HAVE FINISHED WITH OUR SPECS BEING SHORT AS THEY COVERED WITH THE RISE IN PRICE . WE HAVE NOW RETURNED TO OUR USUAL AND CUSTOMARY SCENARIO: BANKERS SHORT AND SPECS LONG .AND AS USUAL OUR SPECS GOT BEATEN UP AGAIN.
WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 4,055. MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE. JUMP OF 85,000 OZ//NEW STANDING 4.255 MILLION OZ + 3.75 MILLION OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK// V) STRONG SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/ FAIR EFP ISSUANCE/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL –130
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS JAN. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF JAN:
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 9 days, total 4508 contracts: OR 22.540 MILLION OZ PER DAY. (500 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 22.54 MILLION OZ
LAST 17 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH: 207.430 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
JAN 2023/// 22.54 MILLION OZ
RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 474 WITH OUR $0.44 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// THURSDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A FAIR SIZED EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 400 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR MAR AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JAN OF 4.055 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 85,000 OZ. JUMP / //NEW STANDING DECREASES TO 4.255 MILLION OZ + EFR 3.75 MILLION = 8.005 MILLION OZ. .. WE HAVE A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 874 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 4.370 MILLION OZ.. THE SILVER SHORTS HAVE BEEN HURT BADLY WITH SILVER’S RISE LATELY.
WE HAD 16 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 80,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 3155 CONTRACTS TO 488,147 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED 1390 CONTRACTS.
THE FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI (1846 CONTRACTS) CAME WITH OUR $20.55 GAIN IN PRICE. WE ALSO HAD A SMALL INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR JAN. AT 2.1710 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 39 CONTRACTS OR 3900 OZ //(QUEUE JUMPING = EXERCISING LONDON BASED EFP’S ) (EFP is the transfer of contracts immediately to London for potential gold deliveries originating from London). NEW STANDING 6.7153 TONNES
YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $20.55 GAIN IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S TRADING
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 5791 OI CONTRACTS (18.01 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 2636 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 486,838
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 5791 CONTRACTS WITH 3155 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 2636 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 5791 CONTRACTS OR 18.01 TONNES.
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (2636 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (1846) TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 5791 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR NORMAL FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING SHORT AND SPECULATORS GOING LONG ,2.) SMALL INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR JAN. AT 2.1710 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 3900 OZ /NEW STANDING 6.7153 TONNES///3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION //4) FAIR SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER/
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JAN :
24,303 CONTRACTS OR 2,430,300 OZ OR 75,59 TONNES 9 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2700 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 9 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES:75.59 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2021, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 75.59/3550 x 100% TONNES 2.14% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023
JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)
FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..
MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/
APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)
MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)
JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)
JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH: 409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247,44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
JAN 2023: 75.59 TONNES INITIAL
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF FEB. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF BOTH GOLD (
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR BOTH GOLD:
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (NOV), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 474 CONTRACTS OI TO 129,761 AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO.
EFP ISSUANCE 400 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
MAR 400 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 400 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 604 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 400 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN A HUGE GAIN OF 874 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 4.370 MILLION OZ//
OCCURRED DESPITE OUR 44 CENT GAIN IN PRICE ….. OUR SPEC SHORTS HAVE NOWHERE TO HIDE!
OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY
1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,
3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,
4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
5. Other gold/silver commentaries
6. Commodity commentaries//CORN
3. ASIAN AFFAIRS
i)FRIDAY MORNING//THURSDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 31.86 PTS OR 1.01% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 224.56 PTS OR 1.04% /The Nikkei closed DOWN 330.30 PTS OR 1.25% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.67% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP TO 6.7259//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP TO 6.7354// /Oil UP TO 78.30 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 83.99 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER
a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
3 C CHINA
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
7. OIL ISSUES
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 1846 CONTRACTS UP TO 486,838 WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $20.55
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE NON-ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JAN… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 2636 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: ;: , . 0 FEB: 2636 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2636 CONTRACTS
WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION, EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A STRONG SIZED TOTAL OF 4482 CONTRACTS IN THAT 2636 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A FAIR SIZED COMEX OI GAIN OF 1846 CONTRACTS..AND THIS STRONG SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $20.55. WE ARE NOW WITNESSING THE BANKERS GOING NET SHORT AND THE SPECS GOING NET LONG AS THEIR FOLLY INTO SHORTING HAS ENDED.
// WE HAVE A SMALL AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING Jan (6.7153)
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL (TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR 591.535 TONNES)
Dec. 64.541 tonnes
JAN/2023: 6.7153 tonnes
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE $20.55) //// AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A STRONG GAIN OF 4482 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES // WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 13.941 PAPER TONNES OF TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JAN. (2.1710 TONNES) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 3700 oz OR 0.0218 TONNES…THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR RISE IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $20.55.
WE HAD – 1309 CONTRACTS COMEX TRADES REMOVED FROM OPEN INTEREST AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 4482 CONTRACTS OR 448,200 OZ OR 13.941 TONNES
Estimated gold comex today 275,777//fair//
final gold volumes/yesterday 340,288///good
INITIAL STANDINGS FOR JAN 2023 COMEX GOLD //JAN 13//
|Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz|
|Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz|| 219,587.731 oz|
includes 5000 kilobars
|Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz||nil oz|
|Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz|
|No of oz served (contracts) today||114 notice(s)|
|No of oz to be served (notices)|| 16 contracts |
|Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month|| 2143 notices|
|Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month||NIL oz|
|Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month||xxx oz|
i)Dealer deposits: 0
total dealer deposit: nil oz
No dealer withdrawals
Customer deposits: 0
total deposits: nil oz
customer withdrawals: 3
Brinks : 50,830.371 oz
JPMorgan: 160,755.000 oz (5000 kilobars)
JPMorgan enhanced: 8002.00
Total withdrawals: 64.302 oz
total 219,687.731 oz
total in tonnes: 6.83 tonnes
Adjustments:1 dealer to customer
i) Out of JPMorgan 14,053.346 oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JANUARY.
For the front month of JANUARY we have an oi of 130 contracts having lost 1110 contracts
We had 1149 notices served on Thursday, so we gained 39 contracts or an additional 3900 oz will stand for delivery in this
very non active delivery month of January. (queue jump)
February lost 22,203 contacts to 271,590
March gained 63 contracts to stand at 794.
April gained 20,573 contracts up to 164,989.
We had 114 notice(s) filed today for 11400 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 86 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 114 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 17 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JAN. /2022. contract month,
we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (2143 x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of (JAN.130 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 114 x 100 oz per contract equals 215,900 OZ OR 6.7153 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this non active month of January.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JAN contract month:
No of notices filed so far (2143 x 100 oz+ (3155 OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (114} x 100 oz} which equals 215,900 oz standing OR 6.7153 TONNES in this NON active delivery month of JAN..
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 6.7153 TONNES (A GOOD STANDING FOR METAL//COMEX RUNNING OUT OF PHYSICAL TO SERVE UPON OUR LONGS.
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
we had one adjustment of 110,631.591 oz Brinks
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 o
total pledged gold: 1,956,708.688 OZ 60.861 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED: 22,781,209.077 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD: 11,077,098.948 OZ (344,54 tonnes)..dropping fast
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 11,704,110.129 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 9,120,390 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 283,68 tonnes//rapidly declining
JAN 13/2023//INITIAL JAN. SILVER CONTRACT
|Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory||NIL oz|
|Withdrawals from Customer Inventory||581,231/800 oz|
|Deposits to the Dealer Inventory||nil OZ|
|Deposits to the Customer Inventory||8984.800 oz|
|No of oz served today (contracts)||16 CONTRACT(S) |
|No of oz to be served (notices)||15 contracts |
|Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)||836 contracts|
|Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month||NIL oz|
|Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month|
i) 0 dealer deposit
total dealer deposits: nil oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: oz
We have 1 deposits into the customer account
i)Into Delaware: 8984.800 oz
Total deposits: 8984.800 oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 151.997 million oz/295.559 million =51.32% of comex .//dropping fast
Comex withdrawals: 1
i) Out of JPMorgan: 581,231.800 oz
Total withdrawals; 581,231.800 oz
the silver comex is in stress!
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 33.195 MILLION OZ (declining rapidly).TOTAL REG + ELIG. 295.559 MILLION OZ
CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JAN
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF JAN/2023 OI: 31 CONTRACTS HAVING GAINED 13 CONTRACT(S.). WE HAD 4 NOTICES
FILED ON WEDNESDAY SO WE GAINED 17 CONTRACT(S) OR 85,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP BY THE BANKERS TO OBTAIN SOME SILVER OVER THERE.
FEB> LOST 9 CONTRACTS TO 194 CONTRACTS
March LOST 39 CONTRACTS UP TO 109,267 contracts
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 16 for 80,000 oz
Comex volumes// est. volume today 72,580//good
Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 60,632 contracts ( fair)
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JANUARY. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 836 x 5,000 oz = 4,180,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JAN(31) and the number of notices served upon today 16 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the JAN./2023 contract month: 836 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of JAN (31 – number of notices served upon today (16) x 500 oz of silver standing for the JAN. contract month equates 4.255 million oz + 3.75 MILLION OZ ( EXCHANGE FOR RISK) = 8.005 MILLION OZ//(TOTAL OZ OF SILVER STANDING).
the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
Comex volumes:59,231// est. volume today// good
Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 76,646 contracts ( very good)
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS
JAN 13/WITH GOLD UP $22.90 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.14 TONNES
JAN 12/WITH GOLD UP $20.55 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.43 TONNES
JAN 11/WITH GOLD UP $1.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.17 TONNES
JAN 10/WITH GOLD UP $1.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.33 TONNES
JAN 9/WITH GOLD UP $ 8.60 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES FROM THE GLD//.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.33 TONNES
JAN 6/WITH GOLD UP $28.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.77 TONNES
JAN 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.05 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES FORM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.77 TONNES
JANUARY 4/WITH GOLD UP $32.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.64 TONNES
JAN 3/WITH GOLD UP $20.00 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:STRANGE: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES FORM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.64 TONNES
DEC 30/WITH GOLD UP $.80 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.51 TONNES
DEC 29//WITH GOLD UP $8.35 TODAY:; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.51 TONNES
DEC 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.80 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 5.50 TONNES INTO THE GLD..//INVENTORY REST S AT 918.51 TONNES
DEC 27/WITH GOLD UP $18.15 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.01 TONNES
DEC 23/WITH GOLD UP $19,15 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.88 TONNES/
DEC 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $29.35 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.88 TONNES
DEC 21/WITH GOLD FLAT TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.88 TONNES
DEC 20/WITH GOLD UP $27.05: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.73 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.14 TONNES
DEC 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.10: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD> A BIG WITHDRAWAL OF 3.47 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 910.41 TONNES
DEC 16/WITH GOLD UP $12.45: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.32 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.88 TONNES
DEC 15//WITH GOLD DOWN $31.00: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 911.56 TONNES
DEC 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.20: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.32 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.72 TONNES
DEC 13/WITH GOLD UP $32.75: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.32 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 910.41
DEC 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.60: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.09 TONNES
DEC 9/WITH GOLD UP $8.90//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.09 TONNES
Dec 8/WITH GOLD UP $4.05, OVER THE PAST 3 WEEKS WE LOST 2.04 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.09 TONNES
NOV 14/WITH GOLD UP $7.30: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 910.12 TONNES
NOV 11/WITH GOLD UP $15.25//BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.19 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 911.57 TONNES
NOV 10/WITH GOLD UP $40.75: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.38 TONNES
NOV 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.89 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.38 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 912.14 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
JAN 13/WITH SILVER UP 46 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.5 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 506.200 MILLION OZ//
JAN 12/WITH SILVER UP 44 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 508.700 MILLION OZ/
JAN 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 508.700MILLION OZ
JAN 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.65 MILLION OZ
JAN 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.65 MILLION OZ//
JAN 6/WITH SILVER UP 54 CENTS TODAY;BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 4.20 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.65 MILLION OZ//
JAN 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 50 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.10 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 505.45 MILLION OZ//
JAN 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 26 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.3 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 506.55 MILLION OZ/
JAN 3/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: STRANGE: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.2 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 507.85 MILLION OZ/
DEC 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.050 MILLION OZ
DEC 29/ WITH SILVER UP $0.63 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.050 MILLION OZ
DEC 28//WITH SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.715 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///..INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.050 MILLION OZ
DEC 27/WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/A WITHDRAWAL OF 550,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 507.350 MILLION OZ//
DEC 23/WITH SILVER UP 29 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT507.900 MILLION O//
DEC 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 53 CENTS TODAY;NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 507.90 MILLION OZ//
DEC 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.0 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 507.90 MILLION OZ//
DEC 20/WITH SILVER UP 105 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:: A DEPOSIT OF 700,000 OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.90 MILLION OZ//
DEC 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.05 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.20 MILLION OZ//
DEC 16/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.85 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 508.15 MILLION OZ//
DEC 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 78 CENTS: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF EXACTLY 2.00 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 510.000 MILLION OZ
DEC 14/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.7 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 512.000 MILLION OZ//
DEC 13/WITH SILVER UP 59 CENTS: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 600,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 513.900 MILLION OZ//
DEC 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 33 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.500 MILLION OZ//
DEC 9/WITH SILVER RISING 77 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.2 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.500 MILLION OZ.
DEC 8/WITH SILVER RISING 34 CENTS TODAY: OVER THE PAST 3 WEEKS, WE HAVE GAINED A STRONG: 44.777 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 516.700 MILION OZ.
NOV 14/WITH SILVER UP 41 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.923 MILLION OZ//
NOV 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 553,000 OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.923 MILLION OZ//
NOV 10/WITH SILVER UP 39 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 368,000 OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.476 MILLION OZ//
NOV 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/; A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.821 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.108 MILLION OZ//
CLOSING INVENTORY 506.200 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
2 Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz//Rickards:
3. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries//
Your weekend reading material:
Alasdair Macleod: The evolution of credit and debt in 2023
Submitted by admin on Thu, 2023-01-12 18:43Section: Daily Dispatches
By Alasdair Macleod
Thursday, January 12, 2023
The evidence strongly suggests that a combined interest rate, economic, and currency crisis for the United States and its Western alliance will continue in 2023.
This article focuses on credit, its constraints, and why quantitative easing has already crowded out private-sector activity. Adjusting M2 money supply for accumulating quantitative easing indicates the degree to which this has driven the U.S. tax base into deep recession. And the wider effects on credit in the economy should not be ignored.
After a brief partial recovery from the covid crisis in U.S. government finances, they are likely to start deteriorating again due to a deepening recession of private-sector activity.
Funding these deficits depends on foreign inward investment flows, which are faltering. Rising interest rates and an ongoing bear market make funding from this source hard to envisage.
Meanwhile, from his public statements President Putin is fully aware of these difficulties, and a consequence of the Western alliance increasing its support and involvement in Ukraine makes it almost certain that Putin will take the opportunity to push the dollar over the edge. …
… For the remainder of the analysis:
* * *
4. Other gold/silver commentaries
ANDREW MAGUIRE//A MUST MUST V IEW…
Sent to me by Chris Powell of GATA
Live from the Vault
Commodity commentaries//GLOBAL FREIGHT
Total Freight Costs Fall Year Over Year In December For First Time In 28 Months
FRIDAY, JAN 13, 2023 – 05:00 AM
By Todd Maiden of FreightWaves
Freight costs fell year over year (y/y) in December for the first time in 28 months, according to a Thursday report from Cass Information Systems.
The Cass Freight Index report showed total expenditures on the payments platform were down 4.3% y/y and 5.5% lower than in November. The shipments component of the index recorded a 3.9% y/y decline, meaning actual transportation rates were likely 0.4% lower y/y during the month (down 2.2% sequentially and 5.3% seasonally adjusted).
The report said lower truckload contract rates were the main catalyst for the index’s decline during the month. The data set includes other transportation modes, like less-than-truckload, rail and parcel, and also captures fuel and accessorial charges, creating some noise in the numbers. Truckload accounts for more than half of freight expenditures on the platform.
“Freight rates are on track to fall 5% in 2023 just based on the normal seasonal pattern of this index,” ACT Research’s Tim Denoyer said. “With loose market conditions and some welcome relief in diesel prices, the actual decline is likely to be a good bit larger.”
With the fourth-quarter earnings season set to start next week, analysts have been dialing in expectations and picking likely winners and losers for the year. While some analysts have noted key indicators are slightly improving, the consensus is TL contract rates saw some pressure in the fourth quarter and will likely be down y/y by mid- to high-single-digit percentages at least through the first half of 2023.
However, most are pointing to firming fundamentals for carriers by midyear, resulting in a potential upcycle in the back half. The thesis is that persistent cost pressures on carriers, and regulatory impediments to capacity like AB5, will result in a steady exodus of operators, removing downward pressure on rates. Further, the weakness in demand and pricing evident in the third quarter appears to have accelerated during the fourth quarter, creating easier y/y comps for the group later this year.
While shippers may be beginning to see some savings, freight costs are still much higher than they were before the pandemic. Cass’ expenditures subindex was up 23% for full-year 2022, which followed a 38% increase in 2021.
Cass’ Truckload Linehaul index, which excludes fuel and accessorials, increased 1.7% y/y but fell 1% from November. December marked the seventh straight sequential decline for linehaul rates. The report also noted that the y/y comps ramp higher with December’s result sitting 5% below January 2022 levels.
“With a tougher comparison in January, this index is likely to turn down on a y/y basis,” Denoyer continued. “New truckload contracts are generally being renewed with considerable rate reductions, but this pressure will be partly offset by strong trends since Thanksgiving in spot rates, which have held most of their gains even as drivers have by and large come back from holiday break.”
Although he said the TL market was “transitioning from the late-cycle stage to the bottoming stage” and that tightening in the spot-contract spread is “a key signpost of this new stage of the cycle, even green shoots of a new rate cycle.”Chart: (SONAR: NTIL.USA). The National Truckload Index (linehaul only – NTIL) is based on an average of booked spot dry van loads from 250,000 lanes and 10,000 daily spot market transactions. The NTIL is a seven-day moving average of linehaul spot rates excluding fuel. Spot rates have bounced from cycle lows in the back half of November. To learn more about FreightWaves SONAR, click here.Chart: (SONAR: NTIL.USA, VCRPM1.USA). The blue-shaded area is the NTIL (spot rates excluding fuel). The green line represents the seven-day per-mile average rate for dry van contract loads excluding fuel (reported on a 14-day lag).
Shipments were down 3.3% from November, but up 1.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis.
“Normal seasonality from here would have shipments back in positive territory y/y in 1H’23, but sharpening declines in imports, into the West Coast in particular, suggest near-term trends may soften further,” Denoyer said.
Data used in the Cass indexes is derived from freight bills paid by Cass, a provider of payment management solutions. Cass processes $37 billion in freight payables annually on behalf of customers.
COMMODITY: PLATINUM DEMAND ON THE RISE:
2023 Platinum Industrial Demand to Rise 10%
Friday, 1/13/2023 12:21
Glass-making, chemicals and fuel cell use to grow…
2023 is forecast to be the second strongest year for industrial platinum demand on record, says the World Platinum Investment Council in its latest 60 Seconds report.
That’s despite the challenging economic conditions now prevailing. Indeed, demand is expected to climb 10% from 2022 to 2,316,000 ounces, with a notable increase in demand from the glass industry.
The robustness of the 2023 industrial platinum demand forecast is rooted in strong and diversified foundations which leave it well-insulated from the nearer-term recessionary outlook. To put this in context, 2021 was a record year for industrial platinum demand, reaching 2,450 koz. This was primarily due to significant glass manufacturing capacity expansions which were not repeated to the same extent in 2022, resulting in a 14% reduction in demand last year to 2,110 koz.
Again in 2023, much of the predicted growth in industrial demand for platinum is due to capacity expansions in the glass industry which have already been committed, meaning they are likely to go ahead irrespective of economic conditions, so providing a high degree of certainty.
Driven by anticipated growth in capacity expansions in China, as well as fibreglass plant projects in Egypt, platinum glass demand is expected to jump by 52% to 481 koz in 2023 – more than double the level in pre-pandemic 2019. This reflects the growing role of glass fibre reinforced materials in reducing carbon emissions, in applications such as vehicle light-weighting and wind power.
In other industrial demand sectors, continued strong chemical, medical and other demand are also likely to more than offset weaker outlooks for the petroleum and electrical sub-sectors this year.
In the chemical sector, demand is forecast to increase by 6% to 666 koz in 2023, albeit remaining similar to the five-year average. Following a turbulent three-year period from 2020 to 2022, the nitric acid industry is expected to recover, becoming the largest contributor to overall growth in chemical platinum offtake.
Elsewhere, faster development of Chinese propane dehydrogenation capacity (following a slow 2022) and expanded capacity in North America, Poland and Kazakhstan, will add to platinum demand. Platinum use in the paraxylene and silicone markets will remain broadly level year-on-year. The slowing economic outlook and elevated gas prices are expected to weigh on European silicone demand, offsetting improvements in China and other emerging markets.
Meanwhile, platinum demand from the petroleum industry is projected to decline in 2023 by 10% to 180 koz, with the International Energy Agency downgrading expectations for oil demand due to the slowing global economy.
Medical demand is expected to resume its growth trend as the impact of the pandemic recedes, with forecasts showing a three per cent increase to 283 koz, surpassing the 2019 pre- pandemic level for the first time. Emerging markets, notably China and India, will see the greatest increase in demand due to their high-growth medical industries.
Other industrial demand is expected to rise by 3% to 599 koz in 2023. While the improvement in demand for spark plugs and sensors are the main drivers for the growth here, the contribution from the hydrogen economy, albeit from a low base, is also growing. In 2023 demand from stationary fuel cells will increase 24% and PEM electrolyser demand by as much as 129%.
Genesis Winklevoss slams the SEC chairman Gensler with charges against Gemini as super lame
Winklevoss Slams SEC Charges Against Gemini As “Super Lame… Manufactured Parking Ticket”
FRIDAY, JAN 13, 2023 – 08:20 AM
Lost in all the focus on CPI-driven chaos in capital markets, The SEC charged cryptocurrency lending firm Genesis Global Capital and crypto exchange Gemini with offering unregistered securities through Gemini’s “Earn” program.
As CoinTelegraph’s Jesse Coghlan reported, in December 2020, Genesis, a subsidiary of crypto conglomerate Digital Currency Group (DCG) entered into a deal with Gemini to offer the exchange’s customers the yield-bearing crypto product. This was then launched in February 2021.
Under the agreement, Gemini customers could loan their crypto to Genesis under the promise the latter would repay the loan with interest. Genesis had full control over how it would earn a yield to repay Gemini creditors.
In a statement, the SEC said its complaint alleges that the Gemini Earn program constitutes an offer and sale of securities and should have been registered with the commission.
“We allege that Genesis and Gemini offered unregistered securities to the public, bypassing disclosure requirements designed to protect investors,” SEC Chair Gary Gensler said in a statement.
Gensler added the charges “build on previous actions to make clear to the marketplace and the investing public that crypto lending platforms and other intermediaries need to comply with our time-tested securities laws.”
“It’s not optional. It’s the law.”
The SEC said its investigating other securities law violations from other entities relating to the Gemini Earn program.
But, as Coghlan reported later in the day, Tyler Winklevoss, the co-founder of cryptocurrency exchange Gemini, hit back at the SEC charging Gemini, calling the action “totally counterproductive” in a series of tweets.
In a series of tweets on Jan. 12, Winklevoss shared his disappointment about the charges by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) over Gemini’s “Earn” program, claiming the regulator was “optimizing for political points,” calling the allegations “super lame” and a “manufactured parking ticket.”
Gemini’s Earn product launched in February 2021 and officially ran until Jan. 8. A deal with the crypto lender and Digital Currency Group (DCG) subsidiary Genesis allowed Gemini users to earn yield by lending their crypto to the market-making firm.
Tyler Winklevoss stated Gemini would defend itself against the unregistered security charges and would “make sure this doesn’t distract us from the important recovery work we are doing.”
1. YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS//FRIDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: UP TO 6.7253
OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.7354
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 31.86 PTS OR 1.01%
HANG SANG CLOSED UP 224.56 PTS 1.04%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 330.30 PTS OR 1.29%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL MIXED
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 102.22 Euro FALLS TO 1.0813 DOWN 47 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.500!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 128.58/JAPANESE YEN RISING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN: UP-// OFF- SHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN’S worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.1320%***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 3.946%*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 3.119…** DANGEROUS//
3i Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO 4.048//
3j Gold at $1898.10//silver at: 23.60 7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 83/100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 68.58//
3m oil into the 78 dollar handle for WTI and 83 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 128.58
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.9295– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 1.0051 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.489% UP 4 BASIS PTS…GETTING DANGEROUS
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.629 UP 6 BASIS PTS//
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18,80…
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: 3.353 % UP 2 BASIS PTS
i.b Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:
FIRST, ZEROHEDGE (PRE USA OPENING// MORNING
AND NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)
US futures are relatively rangebound as earnings season commences pre-Fed speak – Newsquawk US Market Open
FRIDAY, JAN 13, 2023 – 06:41 AM
- European bourses are firmer across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.5%, though overall action remains contained/rangebound ahead of corporate updates/Fed speak.
- US futures are similarly rangy within tighter parameters with the main futures essentially unchanged at present.
- UNH beat on top and bottom lines, TSLA reportedly to cut prices on new US models
- JPY continues to climb and weighs on the USD, though the index has derived some support from EUR pressure
- Core debt has tested/eclipsed yesterday’s post-CPI peak, with a smaller-than-expected TLTRO repayment providing further fleeting impetus
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Export/Import Prices, Speeches from Fed’s Williams, Harker & Kashkari, Earnings from Blackrock, BNY Mellon, Bank of America, JPMorgan, Wells Fargo & Citi.
View the full premarket movers and news report.
Or why not try Newsquawk’s squawk box free for 7 days?
- European bourses are firmer across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.5%, though overall action remains contained/rangebound ahead of corporate updates/Fed speak.
- Stateside, US futures are similarly rangy within tighter parameters with the main futures essentially unchanged at present.
- In Europe, the sectoral breakdown is mostly positive though Auto names lag given the Tesla price reductions.
- UnitedHealth Group Inc (UNH) Q4 2022 (USD): EPS 5.34 (exp. 5.17), Revenue 82.8bln (exp. 82.59bln). FY EPS view 24.40-24.90 (exp. 22.03), FY Revenue view 357-360bln (exp. 323.82bln).; affirms 2023 objectives established in November.
- Goldman Sachs (GS) is making changes to its business segments from Q4 2022, from this period will report results in three business segments.
- Tesla (TSLA) Germany spokesperson says the automakers focus on product improvement enhances its ability to produce ‘the best’ products at industry-leading costs; has achieved some normalisation of cost inflation, gives it confidence to pass that relief on to customers. Elsewhere, Electrek reports that the Co. cut prices on new US models, with the Model Y now 20% cheaper.
- Click here for more detail.
- Yen and Buck remain in lock-step as BoJ/Fed policy perceptions continue to converge
- USD/JPY eyeing 128.00 after breach of prior January low and DXY clinging to 102.000
- Aussie and Pound take advantage of Greenback’s ongoing demise despite mixed data points, as AUD/USD approaches 0.7000 and Cable rebounds from sub-1.2200 towards 1.2250
- Euro firm on the 1.0800 handle vs Buck, but capped by virtual double top circa 1.0867-68
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.7292 vs exp. 6.7295 (prev. 6.7680)
- CBRT Survey sees end-2023 CPI at 32.46% (prev. 34.92%), and is seen at 30.44% in 12-months (34.92%). End-2023 growth is seen at 4.1% (prev. 4.1%). USD/TRY rate seen at 23.1161, and the repo rate is seen at 13.65% in 12-months (prev. 14.86%)
- Click here for more detail.
- Core benchmarks are firmer across the board, though Bunds are yet to eclipse their post-CPI peaks despite USTs and Gilts incrementally surpassing them as underlying bullish momentum continues.
- The latest ECB TLTRO allotment was a smaller than expected figure, and thus prompted a jump in Bunds; though, this was shortlived.
- BoJ to conduct additional long-term bond purchases on Monday, amount is undecided; to make nimble responses by conducting additional outright JGB purchases, accounting for market conditions.
- ECB TLTRO.III January 13th window repayment figure (EUR): 62.75bln vs exp. 213bln (prev. 447bln).
- Click here for more detail.
- The crude benchmarks are on course to conclude the week towards the top-end of a USD 73.47-79.16/bbl range in WTI Feb’23, the peak of which occurred in the run up to Thursday’s US CPI print.
- Venezuela’s PDVSA assigned a third crude cargo to Chevron (CVX) under the US authorisation that restarted exports to the US, according to Reuters sources.
- Spot gold remains above the USD 1900/oz mark, after reclaiming the figure for the first time since May 2022 in the post-CPI market action. Thus far, the yellow metal has essentially matched the May 2022 peak of USD 1909/oz with some way to go before the prior month’s USD 1934/oz best.
- Click here for more detail.
- ECB’s Kazaks sees no rationale for market bets on rate cuts, rates should rise well into restrictive territory.
- UK GDP Estimate MM (Nov) 0.1% vs. Exp. -0.2% (Prev. 0.5%); YY (Nov) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 1.5%); 3M/3M (Nov) -0.3% vs. Exp. -0.3% (Prev. -0.3%)
- Swedish CPIF YY (Dec) 10.2% vs. Exp. 9.9% (Prev. 9.5%); MM (Dec) 1.9% vs. Exp. 1.6% (Prev. 0.7%)
- EU Eurostat Trade NSA, Eur (Nov) -11.7B EU vs. Exp. -21.1B EU (Prev. -26.5B EU, Rev. -27.0B EU)
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- Fed’s Bostic (non-voter) said the US inflation report was welcome news and may allow the Fed to move more slowly. Bostic added he would be comfortable moving at 25bps if conversations with business leaders are consistent with slowing inflation and noted that signs of slowing wage increases are also positive.
- Click here for the US Early Morning note.
- Russian Foreign Ministry said Russia-Belarus military drills are devised to discourage opponents from military escalation, according to TASS.
- Japan and the US reportedly approved the way to start planning specific ways to deploy counterstrike capabilities in their joint defence and foreign policy talks, including sharing intelligence from spy satellites, according to Nikkei.
- US SEC is charging Genesis and Gemini for the unregistered offer and sale of crypto asset securities through the Gemini Earn lending program, according to CNBC.
- APAC stocks were mostly firmer following the positive handover from Wall St.
- ASX 200 was firmer with the advances led by the energy sector after this week’s rebound in oil prices and with sentiment also encouraged by a somewhat thawing of relations between Australia and China after officials in Guangdong received a notice from the local government to clear Australian coal shipments.
- Nikkei 225 failed to join in on the global upbeat mood with Japanese markets hampered amid a firmer currency and higher yields as BoJ watchers begun to expect a sooner-than-anticipated shift in policy.
- KOSPI gained despite a 25bps hike by the BoK which was expected and its statement made no reference to the need for further rate hikes, although Governor Rhee later suggested the door was open for future adjustments.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were kept afloat after press reports outlined details of China’s support measures for the property sector but with gains capped amid a further deterioration in Chinese exports.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- China is to issue further policies to support the housing rental market including a CNY 100bln housing rental loan plan, while China will increase financing to quality developers via loans and bond issuance. Furthermore, China’s plan to improve developers’ balance sheets mainly targets high-quality property firms of relatively large size and systemic importance, according to Xinhua.
- China’s customs said foreign trade continues to face many challenges and difficulties this year, but added that the fundamentals of long-term improvement remain unchanged and the economy is expected to rebound as a whole.
- White House is to discuss export curbs on China with Japanese and Dutch officials although upcoming meetings will not result in immediate announcements, according to a source cited by Reuters.
- BoK raised its base rate by 25bps to 3.50%, as expected, although board members Joo and Shin dissented. BoK said GDP growth will be slower than expected and inflation is to slow gradually, while it noted that policy focus will remain on containing inflation and the statement made no reference to the need for more rate hikes. However, Governor Rhee later noted that the statements and comments do not promise rates will be kept unchanged in the future and he also stated that it is premature to talk about a rate cut.
- PBoC Vice-Governor says monetary policy will be appropriate, no flood like stimulus. Will take more measures to boost market confidence, financing for the property sector, particularly high-quality developers has shown improvements.
- Chinese Trade Balance (USD) (Dec) 78.0B vs. Exp. 76.2B (Prev. 69.84B)
- Chinese Exports YY (USD) (Dec) -9.9% vs. Exp. -10.0% (Prev. -8.7%); Imports YY (USD) (Dec) -7.5% vs. Exp. -9.8% (Prev. -10.6%)
1.c FRIDAY/ THURSDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 31.86 PTS OR 1.01% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 224.56 PTS OR 1.04% /The Nikkei closed DOWN 330.30 PTS OR 1.25% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.67% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP TO 6.7259//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP TO 6.7354// /Oil UP TO 78.30 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 83.99 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER
2 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
North Korea will deem this as a huge threat
South Korea Threatens May Seek Its Own Nukes For First Time
FRIDAY, JAN 13, 2023 – 12:50 PM
Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,
South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol on Wednesday threatened that South Korea could obtain its own nuclear weapons if threats from the North grow, marking the first such comments from a South Korean leader in decades.
“It’s possible that the problem gets worse and our country will introduce tactical nuclear weapons or build them on our own,” Yoon said at a policy briefing with his foreign and defense ministers. “If that’s the case, we can have our own nuclear weapons pretty quickly, given our scientific and technological capabilities.”
Yoon’s warning comes as tensions are soaring on the Korean Peninsula, and the prospect of the South obtaining nukes will inflame tensions even more.
According to The New York Times, Yoon’s comments were the first time a South Korean leader officially mentioned arming the country with nuclear weapons since the US withdrew its nukes from the Korean Peninsula in 1991. Yoon added that he could ask the US to redeploy those weapons and said increasing military cooperation with Washington was another way he could deal with the growing threats from Pyongyang.
He also said that acquiring nuclear weapons was not yet an official government policy, but his office did not walk back his comments when asked to clarify them the following day.
“The most important part of his comments yesterday was that, as a realistic measure at the moment, it’s important to effectively strengthen extended deterrence within the security alliance between South Korea and the United States,” Yoon’s office said Thursday.
“However, when it comes to security, the worst-case scenario must always be taken into consideration, and from that perspective, he was making his commitment and determination ever clearer to protect the people as commander-in-chief against the escalating threat of North Korea’s nuclear weapons,” the office added.
South Korea is a signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which bans non-nuclear armed states from acquiring nuclear weapons. Yoon’s office said that Seoul still abides by the NPT.
North Korea launched a record number of missile tests in 2022 as the US and South Korea resumed massive war games. North Korean Leader Kim Jong-un recently ordered his country to expand its nuclear arsenal, and Yoon said shortly after that he was in talks with the US on expanding military exercises to include US nuclear forces.
The Biden administration has made virtually no effort to defuse tensions on the peninsula, at least publicly, and has only ramped things up by deploying bombers to South Korea for the first time since 2017. The administration maintains it’s open to talks with Pyongyang but hasn’t offered any incentive to bring North Korea to the table.
Early last night, the Bank of Japan lost control of its yield curve as those yields hit .56% for the 10 year JGB which forced the Bank of Japan with another round of bond buying trying to drive the yields below .5%. This sent the Yen much higher to around 128 to the dollar. The Central Bank of Japan is now in deep trouble as they do not know how to get out of their mess
FW: BOJ Loses Control Of Bond Market As New YCC Band Breaks Amid Selling Panic — The is important Japan is selling Tresuries and buying gold like other central banks (SNB)
BOJ Loses Control Of Bond Market As New YCC Band Breaks Amid Selling Panic
Overnight the Japanese yen soared (if not quite as much as it did last month when the BOJ unexpectedly doubled the trading band of its Yield Curve Control to +/- 0.50% sparking the biggest surge in the Japanese currency since LTCM and the 1998 Asian Crisis), after Japan’s Yomiuri reported that the BoJ is to review the side effects of its massive monetary easing at its policy meeting next week and may take additional steps to correct distortions in the yield curve due to skewed interest rates despite last month’s tweak in its bond yield control policy. Translation: there is a chance the BOJ will once again “surprise” the market with yet another YCC tweak. The news predictably unleashed a surge in the yen as it would mean outgoing BOJ head Kuroda will need to buy even less bonds, inject less liquidity, and implicitly prop up the currency; as of 8:00pm ET, the USDJPY had tumbled as low as 128.66 from 132 yesterday, before bouncing modestly just above 129.
Of course, the offset within Japan’s impossible dilemma – which as regular readers know states the BOJ can have a strong yen or bond market stability but not both at the same time – is that a stronger yen means not only weaker exports and less inflation (which may be good for Japan now but will be anything but once deflation returns in a few months), but also bond market chaos.
And sure enough, moments after the JGB market reopened on Friday, the 10Y yield soared above 0.50%, rising as high as 0.568%…
… before recovering some losses after the BOJ announced yet another unlimited fixed-rate bond buying operation intended to stabilize the selloff.
There is just one problem: these operations are starting to pile up quite ominously: on Thursday, the Bank of Japan spent ¥2.81 trillion ($21.3 billion) on its fixed-rate bond-buying operation as yields stayed at the upper end of the trading range that it permits. The amount surpassed a previous record high of ¥2.21 trillion set on June 14. And with the BOJ about to go into overdrive it will surely blow another record amount tonight to prevent an all out collapse of its bond market.
This is a problem, because as IIF strategist and former Goldman FX analyst Robin Brooks showed last week, the BOJ had already had to buy 16.2 trillion Yen in JGBs to defend the new cap, and pointed out correctly that “Exiting any peg – in this case a yield cap – is extremely costly. A warning for any yield cap proponents.”
Well, we can now make that over 20 trillion – or a massive $150 billion! – in just the past three weeks to defend the YCC peg which as of this moment no longer exists and is, at best, a moving target which may (or may not) move to 75bps or more next week – nobody really knows, which is why everyone is selling first and asking questions later; and until the market finds out what the new bogey is, it will keep dumping JGBs and forcing the BOJ to intervene with unlimited – and unscheduled – bond buying operations, as it did again today.
Unfortunately for the BOJ, the longer this confusion continues, the faster the BOJ will be forced to not only drain its existing cash balance but actively liquidate its UST holdings, of which it had roughly $1.08 trillion (down from $1.32 trillion a year ago). Not surprisingly, 10Y TSY yields moved higher around the time the BOJ lost control of the yield curve: the market is starting to again frontrun the BOJ selling of US paper.
What happens next? Well, if the BOJ is unable to restore confidence to the bond market – and its ongoing strategy has demonstrated it has no idea what it is doing – and it is indeed forced to dump TSYs, sending yields sharply higher, the Fed will have no choice but to once again step in and offset BOJ bond buying. That’s right: the Fed may have to restart QE not so much to prop up US stocks but to avoid a bond market rout just as Zoltan Pozsar already predicts that the Fed will have to restart QE anyway (see “A “Checkmate-Like” Situation: Zoltan Pozsar Says Fed Will Restart QE By The Summer Of 2023“), and for a far simpler reason: a massive supply/demand imbalance in the US TSY issuance market this year, once which leads to market chaos and brings the Fed out of hibernation.
At that point, a printing orgy will commence between the Fed and BOJ, one which will inevitably drag in every other central bank, as the new normal race of outprinting everyone else reasserts itself now that inflation is apparently no longer a big concern to the Fed.
BOJ Conducts Unscheduled Bond Buying for Second Time on Friday My goodness: Bank of Japan loses control of the yield curve as 10 yr rate climbs above .500 to .525
BOJ Loses Control Of Bond Market As YCC Band Breaks Amid Selling Panic https://zerohedge.com/markets/boj-loses-control-bond-market-ycc-band-breaks-amid-selling-panic
10y JGB Yield chart and Reverse repos chart — We will get earth movements going forward and there is only one place to hide: gold and silver !! Gijs
|Gijsbert Groenewegen||8:29 AM (2 minutes ago)|
3c CHINA /
This is an accident waiting to happen: China’s totally hidden $7 trillion off balance sheet debt of local governments.
China’s $7 Trillion “Hidden Debt” Is Back In Focus
THURSDAY, JAN 12, 2023 – 07:00 PM
By Ye Xie, Bloomberg Markets Live reporter and analyst
While optimism toward China has been growing amid the economic reopening, the recent loan restructuring of a local government financing vehicle shined a light on this $7 trillion in “hidden” debt. While this group of borrowers has never defaulted, markets are starting to get worried, shunning some weaker borrowers.
With Beijing pivoting on key policies, a cyclical recovery appears to be underway. But structural issues – such as the heavy debt load of local governments — haven’t gone away. On Dec. 30, Zunyi Road & Bridge Construction Group from Guizhou province, one of the poorest regions, extended its bank loans for two decades. It pledged to honor payments on its bonds.
The restructuring caused a splash among market participants. Local government financing vehicles, or LGFVs, are mostly tasked with building infrastructure projects. They allow local authorities to raise money without having the debt appear on the government’s balance sheet. This “hidden” debts and contingent liabilities have risen to 47 trillion yuan ($7 trillion and 39% of GDP) in September, up from 20 trillion yuan at the end of 2016, according to Adam Wolfe, an economist at Absolute Strategy Research.Source: Absolute Strategy Research
So far, these risky state borrowers – with the perception of an implicit guarantee from local governments — have avoided default in public bond markets. But slumping land sales and massive Covid-induced expenditures weaken local governments’ finances and raise questions about their ability to pay, as shown by Zhunyi’s restructuring.
Investors have already showed some concerns about the sector, shunning weaker LGFV and muni bonds. Exhibit 2: Guizhou has been squeezed out of muni market, with its share of issuances falling.Source: Absolute Strategy Research
Exhibit 3: The spread differential between AA-rated and AAA-rated five-year LGFV bonds has widened to the highest since 2018.
The spread widening, in part, reflects offloading by wealth-management products to meet redemptions，but also signals “the tail risk concerns on weaker LGFVs,” according to Goldman Sachs analysts Kenneth Ho and Chakki Ting. The Zunyi restructuring “reinforces our view that an element of caution is warranted for China LGFVs, as we believe further credit differentiation is likely amongst LGFVs, exacerbated by uneven fiscal stress in local governments,” they wrote.
LGFV bonds — known as “chengtou zhai” or “city investment debt” – are enormous, accounting for about a third of total issuance. The stress there could easily spread to the rest of the credit market.
Moreover, their inability to borrow may reduce local governments’ spending. Losses at LGFVs could also increase non-performing loans at banks that lend to them.
Few expect a full-blown crisis. As Bloomberg economist David Qu noted, many LGFVs have diversified away from real estate and government-related businesses, and the ones that still rely on local governments financially would probably get official aid in some form in a crunch.
Still, this hidden debt remains what’s known as a “grey rhino” — a high-risk threat that is often ignored until it’s too late. In the words of Wolfe, Guizhou’s debt restructuring is just “a tip of the iceberg.”
DeSantis now eyes a ban on Chinese based entities purchasing Florida property
DeSantis Eyes Ban On China-Based Entities From Purchasing Florida Property
THURSDAY, JAN 12, 2023 – 09:00 PM
Authored by Andrew Thornebrooke via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is mulling a move to ban Chinese entities from purchasing property in the state due to the economic and security risks posed by China’s communist regime.
“If you look at the Chinese Communist Party, they’ve been very active throughout the Western Hemisphere in gobbling up land and investing in different things,” DeSantis said during a press conference on Jan. 10.
“And, you know, when they have interests that are opposed to ours, and you’ve seen how they’ve wielded their authority… it is not in the best interests of Florida to have the Chinese Communist Party owning farmland, owning land close to military bases.”Republican Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis speaks at the Republican Jewish Coalition Annual Leadership Meeting in Las Vegas, Nevada, on Nov. 19, 2022. (Wade Vandervort/AFP via Getty Images)
The remarks follow warnings from security experts and lawmakers that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), which rules China as a single-party state, is seeking to purchase strategic parcels of land throughout the United States from which it can conduct espionage or otherwise sabotage U.S. national security interests.
In recent years, Chinese land buys in Texas and North Dakota, which were both situated near U.S. military bases, have raised alarm among both locals and policymakers in state and federal governments.
DeSantis said that the CCP had “taken a much more Marxist-Leninist turn” under current Party leader Xi Jinping and suggested that communist China was now a “hostile nation.”
“We do not need to have CCP influence in Florida’s economy,” DeSantis said.A sign opposing a corn mill in Grand Forks, N.D., stands near 370 acres recently annexed by the city for the project. Many residents don’t want the project in the city because the owner, Fufeng Group, has reputed ties to the Chinese Communist Party through its company chairman. (Allan Stein/The Epoch Times)
China Spending Billions on US Land Every Year
Chinese investors purchased more than $6 billion in U.S. real estate between March 2021 and March 2022, according to the National Association of Realtors, making it the largest foreign buyer in terms of dollars spent.
Florida has been at the center of that purchasing craze, with 24 percent of all foreign property purchases in the nation happening there. The next state with the highest amount of foreign purchases was California, which accounted for 11 percent.
DeSantis described the CCP’s influence in American society as “very insidious” and, to that end, said that he was not only concerned with the CCP seeking out farmland, but also wanted to terminate its access to residential properties.
“Why would you want them buying residential developments and things like that?” DeSantis said. “I don’t want them owning subdivisions and things like that.”
Though outrage over the issue has been widespread in recent months, there have been relatively few concrete actions taken to curb the flow of U.S. land to CCP-aligned organizations.
Rep. Dan Newhouse (R-Wash.) introduced legislation in November that would “prohibit the purchase of public or private agricultural land in the United States by foreign nationals associated with the Government of the People’s Republic of China.”
Likewise, Reps. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) and Rick Crawford (R-Ark.) introduced legislation to improve national security by “preventing foreign adversaries from taking any ownership or control of the United States agriculture industry.”
Read more here…
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS/UK AFFAIRS//
What on earth has caused this? Most likely the masked mandates: much higher antipsychotic prescriptions in children and youth in the UK
UK Doctors Have Doubled Antipsychotic Prescriptions To Children And Youth: Study
FRIDAY, JAN 13, 2023 – 06:30 AM
Authored by Jessie Zhang via The Epoch Times,
Despite the lack of evidence of the safety of antipsychotics in children, who are smaller in size and still rapidly developing, the number of prescriptions to English youth has doubled between 2000 to 2019, a study suggests.
The researchers from the University of Manchester examined over seven million children and adolescents aged three to 18.
They discovered that youth prescriptions of antipsychotics – drugs used to treat major mental illnesses, such as autism, schizophrenia, and ADHD – increased from 0.06 percent to 0.11 in the past two decades.
While the percentage is small, co-author and senior research fellow at the University of Manchester Matthias Pierce said that the higher prevalence of these disorders, as well as a growing trend to prescribe antipsychotics by clinicians, is concerning.
“However, [it] will help clinicians to evaluate the prescribing of antipsychotics to children more fully and will encourage them to consider better access to alternatives,” Pierce said.
Antipsychotics have been associated with long-term side effects, including sexual dysfunction, infertility, and weight gain leading to diabetes.
The team examined 7.2 million children and adolescents from general practices in England. (Dana.S/Shutterstock)
Most Prescribed Antipsychotic Drugs
For mental illnesses apart from depression and eating disorders, the researchers discovered that risperidone was the most prescribed drug, accounting for over 70 percent of prescriptions.
“We report 20 times more risperidone prescriptions than previously observed,” the authors wrote.
The most prescribed drug for depression was quetiapine, which is approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration and associated with the side effects of high blood pressure, vomiting, and fatigue.
The most prescribed medication for eating disorders was olanzapine, with the principal side effect being weight gain, with young males appearing to be at a heightened risk.
A similar study involving a 12-week examination of the use of antipsychotic drugs in children revealed that at the conclusion of the study, all children displayed behavioural change. However, all participants also showed significant adverse effects.
Before agreeing to start their child on antipsychotics to manage aggressive behaviour, parents should ask about alternative treatments, according to Mark Olfson, a research psychiatrist at Columbia University in New York.
He said these might include anger management, counselling for parents on how to address aggression, and other psychosocial options.
The study was published on Jan. 10 in the Lancet Psychiatry.
So far we do not know the cause!
Explosion Rocks Natural Gas Pipeline Connecting Lithuania, Latvia; Village Evacuated
FRIDAY, JAN 13, 2023 – 01:22 PM
Lithuania natural gas transmission operator Amber Grid told Reuters its pipeline that connects Lithuania to Latvia was rocked by an explosion on Friday.
Footage of the explosion emerged on Twitter in the last 30 minutes.
The location of the blast is in northern Lithuania. Amber Grid said an investigation is underway into the source of the explosion.
Baltic news agency BNS said police evacuated the entire town of Pasvalys, located in northern Lithuania, due to the situation.
“The gas transmission system in the area consists of two parallel pipelines, and initial data indicates that the explosion occurred in one of them,” SKY News said.
Amber Grid’s pipeline flows show where Natgas supplies have been halted.
The grid is an interconnected NatGas transmission system of four countries – Latvia, Belarus, Poland, Russia’s Kaliningrad region, the Klaipėda LNG terminal, and the systems of Lithuania’s gas distribution operators.
A statement from the grid operator read:
On Friday at around 5pm an explosion occurred in the Amber Grid gas pipeline in Pasvalys district. According to initial data, no people were injured. The explosion took place away from residential buildings. The fire is being extinguished by the fire brigades that immediately arrived on the scene.
The gas transmission system in this area consists of two parallel pipelines, and initial data indicate that the explosion occurred in one of them. The other pipeline was not damaged. The gas supply through the damaged pipeline was immediately interrupted, but the Pasvalys district consumers are already being supplied with gas through the adjacent pipeline.
Nemunas Biknius, CEO of the gas transmission system operator Amber Grid, said: “We regret this incident in the gas pipeline system. We immediately started to investigate the circumstances of the incident and ensure gas supply to consumers. At the moment, all our efforts and those of the responsible services are focused on containing the consequences of the fire and ensuring safety. We have immediately informed Government representatives, the Energy Distribution Operator (ESO) and Pasvalys city authorities about the situation. We will provide more details on the circumstances of the incident as we have more details.”
The gas pipeline where the fire broke out is used to supply gas to the northern part of Lithuania and to transport gas to Latvia.
Gas pipelines are potentially hazardous installations, so we ask residents to pay attention to the signs marking the route of the pipeline, to refrain from carrying out unplanned work in the protection zone of the pipeline that has not been approved by Amber Grid, and to protect themselves and their property.
5.UKRAINE RUSSIA//MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
This is alarming!
Russia Sends Its Biggest Gun To Ukraine
FRIDAY, JAN 13, 2023 – 03:30 AM
Authored by Denes Albert via Remix News,
Russian forces, who have reportedly suffered considerable losses on the front line, have now deployed additional units of the world’s most powerful mortar, which is capable of using a nuclear warhead on the battlefield.
Dubbed the “Sledgehammer,” the self-propelled 2S4 Tyulpan mortar, known as the Tulip in English, has a 240mm cannon — twice the caliber of NATO mortars, which are just 120mm — making it by far the largest caliber mortar system in the world. Carried on its own tracks, it has a range of 19 kilometers and is used to destroy large fortifications, military equipment, or strategic positions.
The 2S4 Tulip self-propelled mortar is capable of firing nuclear bombs, but this is likely to be limited to “micro-nuclear bombs” designed to destroy an area the size of a football stadium. It can also fire armor-piercing, laser-guided, and prohibited cluster munitions, as well as tactical nuclear bombs, according to Hungarian news outlet Ziare.
“It is a massive weapon, devastating when conventional weapons are used, capable of destroying a large area. But it would also make a very large target for Ukrainian artillery and drone crews, who hunt for offensive equipment on a daily basis,” a security expert told the Daily Mirror.
“The mortar is capable of targeting an out-of-sight target with bombs that would be extremely difficult if not impossible to intercept,” he explained.
Ukrainian forces have targeted the mortar system on the battlefield, and some footage from drone operators has shown a number of the weapons knocked out.
Developed during the Cold War, an initial batch of three vehicles was completed in 1969; it was immediately directed to a factory test program, which ended in October. The Tyulpan entered service two years later, and serial production began in 1974. The 2S4 Tyulpan was first seen by Westerners in 1975, so it was given the NATO designation M-1975, while its official name is 2S4.
Out of hundreds produced, Russia is believed to have only 40 to 50 still in operational service. However, Moscow is believed to have 400 units in storage and to be activating additional mortars to send to the battlefield in Ukraine.
Belligerent Turkey is at it again: They rage at Sweden over Kurdish group’s tweet. It is about time to expel Turkey from NATO
Turkey Rages At Sweden, Summons Ambassador, Over Kurdish Group’s Tweet
FRIDAY, JAN 13, 2023 – 04:15 AM
Turkey on Thursday summoned Sweden’s ambassador to complain about issues related to the country’s attempt at NATO ascension, at a moment Stockholm has lately admitted that Turkey is asking what it cannot give.
This latest example of Turkey’s anger is perhaps among the most absurd examples of Turkish overreach regarding its demands that Sweden clamp down on dissident Kurdish groups, given it involves a mere tweet and a group exercising free speech.Via AFP
The offending tweet by a Swedish-based activist group called Rojava Committee of Sweden is described by AFP as follows: “A tweet by the Rojava Committee of Sweden on Wednesday compared Erdogan to Italy’s Fascist dictator Benito Mussolini, who was hung upside down after his execution in the closing days of World War II.”
And more provocatively the tweet included imagery of a dummy made to look like Erdogan swinging from a rope, continuing the Mussolini death comparisons. Apparently the group staged the “hanging” of the dummy on a street in Stockholm as part of a demonstration.
“History shows how dictators end up,” the group wrote as part of the message. “It is time for Erdogan to resign. Take this chance and quit so that you don’t end up hanging upside down on (Istanbul’s) Taksim Square.”
Turkey’s government is demanding severe action against the Kurdish activist group from Swedish authorities over the whole thing. While Sweden’s foreign ministry condemned the video and tweet, this wasn’t enough to satisfy Turkish officials, who want a legal crackdown by authorities against the Rojava Committee of Sweden.
“We urge the Swedish authorities to take necessary steps against terrorist groups without further delay,” Erdogan’s chief spokesman Fahrettin Altun tweeted. In response, Sweden’s Foreign Minister Tobias Billstrom said Stockholm supports “an open debate about politics” but “distances itself from threats and hatred against political representatives.”
“Portraying a popularly elected president as being executed outside city hall is abhorrent,” the Swedish diplomat wrote. However, legally tweet is being interpreted in Sweden and Europe as protected speech, and there is unlikely to be any further action against the Kurdish group. Of course, Turkey under Erdogan hasn’t been a fan of free speech for a number of years at this point.
Lately Turkey has demanded that Sweden go so far as to even change its laws related to speech and freedom of assembly in order to crack down on anti-Turkey Kurdish groups. But Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson has admitted that at this point regarding Ankara’s stipulations to joining NATO, “We cannot meet all of Turkey’s demands.”
Russia Declares “Full Control” Over Soledar In 1st Major Win In Months
FRIDAY, JAN 13, 2023 – 10:35 AM
Russia has declared its first major victory over Ukrainian forces in months. On Thursday night the Russian defense ministry announced “full control” town of Soledar in eastern Ukraine, describing the salt mining town as of “great importance for the continuing successful offensive operations in the Donetsk direction.”
The official declaration came about 48 hours following the private military firm Wagner Group initially claiming capture of Soledar, with the group’s head Yevgeny Prigozhin photographing himself inside the sprawling salt mines the town is famous for.Via DWThe Wagner statement created immediate tensions inside Russia and reportedly in military command ranks over how quickly the mercenary fighters claimed victory for themselves. That same day, on Wednesday, the defense ministry put out an official statement suggesting full victory was premature at that point, and made no mention of Wagner.
A fresh military statement Friday declaring victory over the Donetsk town also failed to mention Wagner, instead hailing the efforts of aerial, paratrooper, and ground forces.
“On the evening of January 12, the liberation of the town of Soledar, which is vital for the continuation of successful offensive operations in the Donetsk area, was completed,” Defense Ministry Spokesman Lieutenant-General Igor Konashenkov said.
According to more from the statement in TASS:
Full control of Soledar makes it possible to cut off the supply routes of Ukrainian troops in Artyomovsk located southwest and subsequently block the city and entrap the Ukrainian military there, the general explained.
The seizure of Soledar by Russian troops was facilitated by continuous air, missile and artillery strikes on Ukrainian army positions, Konashenkov reported.
“Soledar was seized thanks to continuous strikes delivered on the enemy by assault and army aviation aircraft, missile troops and artillery of the Russian group of troops (forces). They continuously delivered concentrated strikes on the Ukrainian army positions in the town, denying the enemy the redeployment of reserves, ammunition supplies and its attempts to retreat to other defensive lines,” the spokesman said.
The defense ministry statement then claimed over 700 Ukrainian troops were killed, but made no mention of casualties on the Russian side.
The Wagner Tuesday statements proved divisive and controversial for the Russian side…
“In the past three days alone, over 700 Ukrainian troops and more than 300 weapon systems were destroyed in the area of the town of Soledar,” the spokesman added, describing that “In the course of operations for the liberation of Soledar, the Airborne Force units conducted a stealth maneuver from another direction and successfully attacked Ukrainian army positions from the march, having gained commanding heights, and blocked the town from the northern and southern sides.”
Interestingly, Ukraine is still as of Friday refuting that Russia has definitively captured Soledar; however, a CNN crew observed organized pullback of Ukrainian troops under heavy continued shelling.
And conveniently, Washington’s first reaction to news of Soledar’s capture by Russian forces was to downplay its significance. US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said the Russian advance would not “have a strategic impact on the war itself.”
“It certainly isn’t going to stop the Ukrainians or slow them down in terms of their efforts to regain their territory,” be had said in a Thursday briefing.
A honest assessment of Ukraine
|Robert Hryniak||10:08 AM (23 minutes ago)|
Whether people want to believe it or not, Ukraine is a NATO proxy run by America and it will fail. And when it falls it will be returning soldiers from the eastern part that look to hang Zelensky and his minions. If one were talk to soldiers who survived Soledar dressed in summer clothes and having experienced severe frostbite and abandonment and abuse from Ukrainian secret police, one would appreciate the deep rooted hatred that now exists. Tuberculosis is rampant amongst the troops, and spreads with each rotation. They know they are expendable cannon fodder for war profiteers. And not unlike armies before they will soon enough march on Kiev. This reality is only another slaughter or two away.
When this is all over one might expect that there will be a lingering resentment of NATO and America that will last a long time. Ukraine will be a much bigger fiasco than Afghanistan for American hegemony on a world stage.
Rapid Russian advance to Seversk: Vesele taken & Rozdolivka entered- Elite “British” counterattack crashes at Soledar – 200 dead – WarNews247
|Robert Hryniak||10:21 AM (12 minutes ago)|
It is possible for the whole front line to collapse with more Russian weight in forces. Especially when advancements continue.
6/GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
Vaccine//Covid issues: Injuries
A must read//Stieber…
Senator Questions CDC On Why It Claimed No ‘Unexpected Safety Signals’ For COVID Vaccines
THURSDAY, JAN 12, 2023 – 11:00 PM
Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
A U.S. senator is questioning a top agency’s public statements over safety signals for the COVID-19 vaccines.
Dr. Rochelle Walensky, director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), claimed in 2022 that safety monitoring revealed no “unexpected safety signals” for the vaccines.Senator Ron Johnson (R-WI) speaks during a Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee hearing on Aug. 6, 2020. (Toni Sandys-Pool/Getty Images)
But the results to which she was referring showed hundreds of safety signals, or adverse events potentially linked to the shots.
The Epoch Times obtained the results through a Freedom of Information Act after the CDC refused to release them.
Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) is now wondering why the CDC expected so many signals after vaccination.
In a Jan. 10 letter citing The Epoch Times article on the results, Johnson demanded the CDC explain how it determined what is and is not an “unexpected safety signal.”
“The American people have a right to know the extent to which your agency was aware of and tracked COVID-19 vaccine adverse events. Your lack of transparency is unacceptable. Without immediately providing complete and reliable information about COVID-19 vaccine adverse events, you are obstructing Congressional oversight and leaving the public in the dark,” added Johnson, who was stonewalled when he requested the monitoring results.
The CDC did not respond to a request for comment.
Another most read/Morgan/EpochTimes
National Security Experts Criticize Media, Scientists Who Dismissed COVID-19 Lab Leak Theory In Open Letter
THURSDAY, JAN 12, 2023 – 09:40 PM
Authored by Ryan Morgan via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
A group of 43 national security experts published an open letter on Jan. 11 criticizing news organizations and scientific publications that dismissed the possibility that the COVID-19 pandemic might have been the result of a lab leak.Security personnel stand guard outside the Wuhan Institute of Virology in Wuhan as members of the World Health Organization (WHO) team investigating the origins of the COVID-19 coronavirus make a visit to the institute in Wuhan in China’s central Hubei province on Feb. 3, 2021. (Hector Retamal/AFP via Getty Images)
The letter is addressed “To the editors, authors, and contributors to major scientific, medical, and journalistic publications worldwide.” The addressees include The Lancet, Nature Medicine, The New York Times, and TIME magazine.
The letter was coordinated by the Vandenberg Coalition, and included signatures from House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul (R-Texas), former U.S. National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien, Former U.S. Deputy National Security Advisor Matthew Pottinger, and analysts from the Heritage Foundation, the Hudson Institute, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), and other security and foreign policy analysts.
“Leading scientific journals censored dissenting voices; many science writers at major news outlets promoted narratives or asserted conclusions unsubstantiated by evidence; reporters failed to make even cursory attempts at surfacing potential conflicts of interest of their sources,” the letter states.
“This served to hamper national and international policy discussions about how to mitigate against future pandemics of any origin—natural, accidental, or deliberate.”
The letter faults editors and reporters at news organizations and scientific publications for stifling debate on the origins of the virus.
The letter references a Fox News article about a May 2021 tweet by a New York Times reporter who said, “Someday we will stop talking about the lab leak theory and maybe even admit its racist roots. But alas, that day is not yet here.”
The New York Times reporter deleted the tweet the same day she wrote it.
“Our security and prosperity depend on rigorous scientific debate, research, and scholarship, as well as an intrepid and independent news media,” the letter continues.
“The responsibility of scientists and journalists alike is to ask hard questions and seek truth. By prematurely dismissing or stigmatizing certain questions—from the very outset of the pandemic—many prominent scientists and journalists failed in their duty.”
The letter went on to list “notable failures” by the various news and scientific publications. A February 2020 statement by The Lancet “asserted without evidence that questioning the supposed natural origin of COVID-19 constituted ‘misinformation’ and a ‘conspiracy theory,” the letter states.
Peter Daszak, president of EcoHealth Alliance, was listed as a co-author the February 2020 statement by The Lancet. EcoHealth Alliance worked directly with China’s Wuhan laboratories to research coronaviruses. The Lancet subsequently acknowledged questions if Daszak had a “competing interest” when he co-authored the 2020 statement.
The letter authors also noted that a report by Nature Medicine, which “became one of the most-cited academic journal articles in history” had “effectively stigmatized anyone who questioned whether the outbreak may have originated in a laboratory.”
Read more here…
Davos crowed now worried about the huge depression the world is in (due to their stupid policies). They are extremely worried about stock market volatility and of course cost of living increases. They are worried about a stock market crash
“Catastrophic Outcomes”: Davos Elite Worried About Global Volatility, Cost-Of-Living Crisis
FRIDAY, JAN 13, 2023 – 08:40 AM
What happens when plebs can’t afford bread, and the circuses aren’t that entertaining?
Nothing good. Which is why the cost-of-living crisis is the #1 problem, according to the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report – an annual poll of 1,200 government, business and civil society professionals.
According to the poll, there will be little respite from “energy inflation, food and security crises” in the coming years (or months?).
In the near term, nearly 70% of those polled say volatile economies and various ‘shocks’ are in the cards, while 20% or so of those polled say they fear “catastrophic outcomes” within the next 10 years, according to Bloomberg.
“Very few leaders in today’s generation have been through these kind of traditional risks around food and energy, while at the same time battling what’s coming up in terms of debt, what’s coming up in terms of climate,” said Saadia Zahidi, WEF managing director, who warned that the world may be entering a “vicious cycle.”
“We’re going to need a sort of new type of leadership that is much more agile,” she told Bloomberg Television.
Next week will mark the annual WEF conference in Davos, Switzerland, where the global elite will sit around and discuss how best to run our lives.
The gathering begins at a time when inflation is at a four-decade-high across many advanced economies, with interest rates far more elevated than anyone was predicting 12 months ago.
The report calls for global cooperation, and warns that if governments mishandle the current crisis they “risk creating societal distress at an unprecedented level, as investments in health, education and economic development disappear, further eroding social cohesion.”
Increases in military expenditure could reduce support for vulnerable households, leaving some countries in a “perpetual state of crisis” and set back the urgent need to tackle climate change and biodiversity loss. -Bloomberg
The worst case scenario, according to the report, is the risk of “geoeconomic warfare” – in which geopolitical rivalries are likely to increase economic tensions, exacerbating both short and long-term risks.
“In this already toxic mix of known and rising global risks, a new shock event, from a new military conflict to a new virus, could become unmanageable,” according to Zahidi. “Climate and human development therefore must be at the core of concerns of global leaders to boost resilience against future shocks.”
What’s more, the report also warned that the interaction of a ‘cluster of risks’ can cause a cascade of future problems in a “polycrisis,” such as “resource rivalry” in which countries compete for natural resources.
URGENT: Lisa Marie Presley has died! Lisa Marie was the Daughter of Elvis and Priscilla, and Dead at 54: it was reported that she suffered cardiac arrest; I am not afraid to ask, was she vaccinated
We must ask, why would she at 54, die like this? Was she ailing? Until we know otherwise, the differential diagnosis must be vaccine induced cardiac failure as we are seeing everywhere now!
As I have said before, we hang them high, all who were involved in these vaccines and it is shown that they did wrong in proper legal settings, we hang’ em high! We let proper courts decide with judges and if the judges declare that deaths occurred due to the negligence and recklessness and dangerousness and forms of mal-intent by health officials as it relates to the lockdown lunacy and the fraud COVID injections, if judges say that they are to be penalized financially and imprisoned, we imprison them! Whatever judges say must be the punishment, we impose it, we do not argue. Let the courts decide and we also go to the ballot box. Never in our hands. The Lord will deal with these beasts who now have our police and military in harms way, vaccine injured!
We pray but we never stop, we get justice and accountability! We use the courts to investigate all the seeming wrong that was done with COVID. No matter who. We investigate them!
BOOM! “DOJ Appoints Special Counsel To Investigate If Biden Mishandled Classified Documents”; As I said, King for King?? They want your King so will take down theirs to do it? Is it? Interesting.
Attorney General Merrick Garland appointed a special counsel Thursday to investigate whether President Joe Biden mishandled classified documents. Where is the FBI raid? The public searching of drawers
Why did the White House (who knew of it) not tell the Justice Department and public that this (the documents) existed before the election? Why? How does it link to Hunter?
This is a clear double standard, these people even knew of this when they were raiding Trump’s home and rifling through Melania’s underwear. Imagine that.
I find it so very interesting how CNN et al. are doing gymnastics to tell you this is different than Trump.
BOMBSHELL! FDA’s Dr. Paul A. Offit now says what about the mRNA COVID gene injection that he helped approve for EUA? What? Is he smelling the interior of a jail cell? He is trying to come clean? What?
“I believe we should stop trying to prevent all symptomatic infections in healthy, young people by boosting them with vaccines containing mRNA from strains that might disappear a few months”
Children face mask study Catalonia Spain (it’s in my Brownstone op-ed) but a key study so look it: “Unravelling the Role of the Mandatory Use of Face Covering Masks for the Control of SARS-CoV-2
in Schools, 5 year olds (no mask) versus 6 year olds (with masks); mask mandates in schools were not associated with lower SARS-CoV-2 incidence or transmission, masks are ineffective for school kids
see Brownstone op-ed I wrote, see reference 98:
The Mass Vaccination Campaign Results in a Series of Increasingly More Infectious Variants; After China ended zero Covid, the country is surging with infections. What will China’s next move be?
The main implication of a ZERO-COVID policy is that it denies the population from garnering sufficient virus exposure & recovery & thus baseline natural immunity; your population is thus susceptible!
Vaccines Are Pushing Pathogens to Evolve Just as antibiotics breed resistance in bacteria, and Vaccine injuries are the sleeper issue that will rear its head in 2023
Terrorism in 2023, what does that look like? The Islamic State, the most significant terrorist threat since the global counterterrorism campaign to dismantle al-Qaeda in the immediate years following
9/11, has been attenuated in Iraq and Syria, losing two of its emirs in 2022. Outside of the Levant, Islamic State branches and affiliates remain potent, especially in the Sahel region of Africa
SHARYL ATTKISSON does a tremendous justice to this piece and I wanted to share it, she is stunning as usual in her scholarship:
‘The following is an excerpt from Foreign Policy Research Institute – fpri.org
“Trends in Terrorism: What’s on the Horizon in 2023?” – written by Colin P. Clarke
The most defining feature of international terrorism in 2023 will be its diversity, reflected by the broad array of ideologies and grievances motivating plots and attacks.
The Islamic State, the most significant terrorist threat since the global counterterrorism campaign to dismantle al-Qaeda in the immediate years following 9/11, has been attenuated in Iraq and Syria, losing two of its emirs in 2022.
Outside of the Levant, Islamic State branches and affiliates remain potent, especially in the Sahel region of Africa and in South Asia, where the Islamic State Khorasan Province is waging a stubborn insurgency against the Taliban.
Without continued US and allied pressure, it is likely that Islamic State, al-Qaeda, and their respective branches and franchise groups could successfully rebuild their networks in the Middle East and beyond.
And while the United States and its coalition partners have done an impressive job at destroying the physical caliphate in the Middle East, sub-Saharan Africa is now the center of gravity for jihadist terrorism.
According to the Global Terrorism Index, the Sahel has become “increasingly more violent over the past 15 years, with deaths rising by over one thousand percent between 2007 and 2021.”
On the other side of the continent, al-Shabaab is still a pernicious threat and could be looking to expand operations beyond Somalia and the immediate region, setting sights on more global ambitions.
Two al-Shabaab militants have been arrested in the Philippines over the past several years, both charged with attempting to plan “9/11-style” attacks using airplanes.
If an African jihadist group sees an opportunity to gain momentum, and with it money and recruits, it could make attacking Western targets a higher priority.
As terrorism experts Bruce Hoffman and Jacob Ware recently suggested, in a post-Zawahiri era, al-Qaeda is likely to refocus on targeting embassies and consulates, tourist destinations, and commercial aviation.
One of the recent trends to garner attention is the concept of ‘post-organizational violent extremism and terrorism’ (POVET), a concept Bruce Hoffman and I referenced in a July 2020 piece on domestic terrorism in the United States, where we highlighted “the growing irrelevance or organizational structure.” This trend has continued.
In May 2022, a racially motivated terrorist attack by Payton Gendron at a grocery store in a predominantly African-American section of Buffalo, NY left ten dead. Gendron had been influenced, at least in part, by the Great Replacement theory. He also copied and pasted entire sections of the manifesto published by Brenton Tarrant, the white supremacist responsible for the Christchurch massacre in 2019.
While both of these individuals, as well as those responsible for attacks in El Paso, TX and Pittsburgh, PA may be classified as lone actors, they emerged from a broader far-right ecosystem.
In discussions with national security officials in the United States, the number one concern I hear is the potential for another Oklahoma City-style domestic terrorism attack from an anti-government extremist in the mold of Timothy McVeigh.
Post-organizational terrorism presents new threats for law enforcement and intelligence agencies. With no actual group there is no physical headquarters to surveil and no organization to infiltrate.
However, post-organizational terrorists also lack the logistics and support networks of terrorist groups, and accordingly, are more limited in the amount of damage they can inflict.
These networks are less able to marshal resources and are incapable of conducting prolonged sieges of enduring campaigns of violence.
Still, since the goal of terrorism is largely psychological, even a lone actor with access to sophisticated weaponry can wreak havoc on a mass scale. In the United States, where individuals have access to automatic weapons, the threat is magnified exponentially.
Emerging technologies present terrorists and violent extremists with myriad options that terrorists in the past never had. Drones, 3-D printed weapons, virtual currencies, and end-to-end encryption offer lone actors sophisticated capabilities.
A trend likely to continue is the online manifesto which often accompanies a high-profile far-right attack. These manifestos not only serve to radicalize would-be extremists, but also provide exquisitely detailed descriptions of attack preparation, weapons maintenance, and the aesthetics of the accelerationist ideology more broadly.
So just as the global jihadist threat continues to evolve—ebbing and flowing in different regions—the far-right continues to solidify its transnational connections.
The US troop withdrawal from Afghanistan and the Taliban’s subsequent takeover in August 2021 could be framed as the logical bookend to the two-decade-long Global War on Terrorism.
Of course, the United States and its allies will continue to carry out counterterrorism operations throughout the globe. But no longer will counterterrorism serve as a unifying mission set, nor as a placeholder for a broader grand strategy.
For terrorism and counterterrorism analysts, 2023 will be among the most unpredictable years in recent memory.
Part of this is due to the fragmented nature of the threat, but also as a result of a yearslong relentless Western counterterrorism strategy that targeted Islamic State command-and-control and revoked the territory the group had once dubbed its Caliphate.
The threat landscape may now appear far more inchoate, which makes it difficult to combat, but it may also be less potent as a result.’
ALERT: World Health Organization Meeting this Week to Propose Amendments to the International Health Regulations
January 12, 2023 8:22 pm
James Roguski has been making the media rounds in the Alternative Media this week warning about a closed-door meeting happening at the World Health Organization (WHO) this week with The International Health Regulations Review Committee (IHRRC) from January 9-13, 2023. While the new WHO proposed “Pandemic Treaty” has grabbed the headlines in recent weeks, James Roguski believes that the meeting this week with IHRRC is much more important, because they are proposing amendments to an agreement that all 194 member nations of the World Health Assembly have already signed and ratified, including the United States, back in 2005, regarding International Health Regulations. The current agreement is “non-binding”, but according to Roguski they want to change the agreement to remove the wording that states these “health regulations” are not just non-binding recommendations, but requirements to be implemented in all future “pandemics.” The Review Committee is supposed to submit their proposals to the WHO by January 15, 2023, and then the entire 194 members of the WHO could vote on these amendments as soon as this May, in 2023. The amendments could be ratified by a simple majority vote among the 194 member nations.
20 Year Old Colorado College Tennis Player Dies Unexpectedly In His Sleep
FRIDAY, JAN 13, 2023 – 02:20 PM
We hate to say it, but another day, another mysterious and unexpected death of a seemingly normal collegiate athlete. As we wrote yesterday, either there is a new focus in media on reporting about the untimely deaths of athletes and young adults, or something very odd appears to be taking place across the country.
Jack Madison, a sophomore on the Colorado College men’s tennis team, passed away in his sleep on January 2nd, a new report from the Gazette, published yesterday, confirms. Colorado College vice president and director of athletics Lesley Irvine commented: “We are devastated by the tragic passing of Jack Madison.”
A sought after athlete, the piece notes that Madison was recruited “out of Bexley, Ohio, where he was a two-time all-state selection at Columbus Academy.” His cause of death has not been announced.
“As a community, we grieve his death and loss and hold all who cared for and loved Jack in the light during this time of grief, especially his family and friends,” the college said in a statement obtained by FOX.
“He loved tennis and being part of CC’s tennis team, for which he was recruited. He engaged fully with campus life in a myriad of ways, embracing CC to the fullest. Jack was observant, super imaginative, creative, and independent-minded. His humor, deep thinking, and generous spirit were a gift in his friendships and to all of us,” it continued.
Madison’s death follows a growing list of mysterious deaths and medical episodes among young adults and athletes:
- On January 12, 2023, we wrote about 18 year old Jordan Brister, a Las Vegas High School student who collapsed and died in the bathroom after gym class.
- His death came the same week as the death of another Las Vegas High School student. Brister’s collapse was on January 8, 2023, and another student, 16 year old Ashari Hughes, had died just three days prior “following a flag football game at Desert Oasis High School” and suffering a “medical episode”.
- Also in the first week of January 2023, we wrote about 21 year old Air Force football player Hunter Brown, who suffered a “medical emergency” while walking to class and passed away.
- In the opening days of 2023 the MMA world was also shocked at the unexpected death of 18 year old Victoria Lee, a rising star on the the ONE Championship MMA promotion.
- In January 2023, we also highlighted Old Dominion basketball player Imo Essien collapsing on the court during the middle of a game.
- His collapse came a little more than a week after NFL player Demar Hamlin collapsed on the field due to cardiac arrest after making what appeared to be a routine tackle.
|The latest reports from Slay News|
|World Economic Forum Behind Sudden Push to Ban Gas StovesDetails have emerged to reveal that Klaus Schwab’s World Economic Forum is behind the recent sudden push from the Democrats and President Joe Biden’s administration to ban gas stoves from American homes.READ MORE|
|Former New York Elections Official Pleads Guilty in Ballot Fraud SchemeA New York elections board commissioner, Jason Schofield, has resigned and pleaded guilty to federal charges of fraudulently obtaining and filing absentee ballots.READ MORE|
|Bill Gates Calls for Increased Censorship to ‘Moderate Insanity’ That Prevents People ‘Using Masks or Taking Vaccines’Billionaire Bill Gates has called for increased censorship online so governments can “moderate some of the insanity” that “prevented some people from using masks or taking the vaccine.”READ MORE|
|Peter Doocy Flusters Biden: ‘Classified Materials Next to Your Corvette? What Were You Thinking?’Democrat President Joe Biden faced tough questions from the media over reports of his mishandling of classified data, especially from Fox News’s Peter Doocy.READ MORE|
|Classified Documents Found at Biden’s Delaware Home in Garage Next to CorvetteThe second batch of classified documents mishandled by Joe Biden was found in the garage of the Democrat president’s home in Delaware, according to reports.READ MORE|
|Facebook Neighborhood Watch Group Steps In, Catches Chicago Thief Dead in TracksA Facebook-based neighborhood watch group has helped to put a career criminal behind bars.READ MORE|
|Hollywood Star Ezra Miller to Take Plea Deal and Avoid Long Prison SentenceHollywood star Ezra Miller will plead guilty to a lesser charge in his felony burglary case as part of a plea deal reached with prosecutors.READ MORE|
|Republican Rep Ken Buck Takes Aim at Big Tech’s Censorship, Anti-Competitive PracticesRepublican Rep. Ken Buck (R-CO) has called out Big Tech for abuses of power, specifically censorship and anti-competitive practices.READ MORE|
|Ex-Fox News Reporter Hospitalized after Car Accident: ‘I’m Lucky to Be Alive’Former Fox News correspondent Rick Leventhal has been hospitalized after being involved in a serious car accident.READ MORE|
|BLM-Endorsed Democrat Jailed for Blowing Stolen DNC Cash in CasinosA Black Lives Matter-endorsed Democrat politician has been jailed for stealing money from the Democratic National Committee (DNC) and blowing it in casinos.READ MORE|
|Top Banker Accused of Role in Jeffrey Epstein’s Sex Trafficking RingTop banker Jes Staley, a former high-level executive with Barclays and JPMorgan, has been accused of helping deceased pedophile Jeffrey Epstein run his international sex trafficking ring.READ MORE|
|Bloodbath: Golden Globes TV Ratings Plummet to Dismal LowsThe Golden Globes has continued its decline by recording dismal TV ratings for the award ceremony this week.READ MORE|
|Facebook Bans All Content Supportive of Pro-Bolsonaro Protests in BrazilFacebook’s parent company Meta has banned all content that supports the pro-Jair Bolosonaro protests in Brazil.READ MORE|
7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES/USA AND GLOBE
8.EMERGING MARKETS ISSUES//AUSTRALIA ISSUES.
Your early currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:30 AM
EURO VS USA DOLLAR:1.0813 DOWN .0047
USA/ YEN 128.58 DOWN 0.593/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .50% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN RISES//
GBP/USA 1.2173 DOWN 0.0043
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 31.86 PTS OR 1.01%
Hang Sang CLOSED UP 224.56 POINTS OR 1.04%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.67% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL MIXED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL MIXED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED UP 224.56 PTS OR 1.04%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 31.86 PTS OR 1.01%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.67%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 330.30 PTS 1.25%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 1895.85
USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 102.22 UP .23 BASIS POINTS from THURSDAY’s close.
FRIDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.078% UP 2 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.507% UP 0 AND 7/100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.157%// UP 2 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 4.003 UP 2 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO +2.1600% UP 3 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.0809 UP 0.0051 or 51 basis points//
USA/Japan: 127.56 DOWN 1 AND 31/100 OR YEN UP 212 basis points/
Great Britain/USA 1.2189 DOWN.0028 OR 28 BASIS POINTS //
Canadian dollar DOWN .0036 OR 36 BASIS pts to 1.3413
The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE (CLOSED ..(UP) AT 6.7035
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. 6.7169
TURKISH LIRA: 18.79 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.500
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 4 IN basis points from THURSDAY at 3.485% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 3.609 UP 4 in basis points
Your closing USA dollar index, 102.10 UP 11 BASIS PTS ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/
Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates FRIDAY: 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED UP 50.03 PTS OR 0.64%
German Dax : CLOSED UP 2822 POINTS OR 0.19%
Paris CAC CLOSED UP 47.82 PTS OR 0.69%
Spain IBEX UP 53.60 POINTS OR 0.61%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP49;52 PTS OR 0.19%
WTI Oil price 79.21 12: EST
Brent Oil: 84,83 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN /// UP TO: 68.79/ ROUBLE UP 1 AND 03/100 RUBLES/DOLLAR
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.160
UK 10 YR YIELD: 3.36965 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS.
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA: 1.0831 DOWN .0029 OR 29 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2234 UP .0017 or 17 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 3.395% UP 3 BASIS PTS
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 127.87 DOWN 1.305/YEN UP 131 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3388 DOWN .0010 (CDN dollar, UP 10 basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 79.87
Brent OIL: 85.30
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 6 BASIS pts to 3.505%
USA 30 yr bond yield UP 4 BASIS PTS to 3.616%
USA dollar index:101.90 DOWN 10 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18.79
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 68.78 DOWN 1 AND 03/100 roubles
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP112.64 PTS OR 0.33%
NASDAQ 100 UP 81.87 PTS OR 0.71%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 18.17 DOWN 0.66 PTS (3.51)%
GLD: $178.73 UP 2.09 OR 1/18%
SLV/ $21.88 UP .45 OR 2.06%
USA trading day in Graph Form
Stocks, Bonds, Gold, & Crypto Soar As Markets Call Fed’s Bluff
FRIDAY, JAN 13, 2023 – 04:00 PM
The world and his pet rabbit appear to believe that a ‘soft landing’ is imminent and ‘peak inflation = peak Fed tightening’ and so this week saw financial conditions loosen dramatically. This is very much not what Powell and his pals want to see, and specifically warned against “unwarranted easing” in the Fed’s Minutes…
The last five days have seen one of the largest ‘easings’ in financial conditions on record.
Simply put, the market is calling The Fed’s bluff…
But, as Goldman’s Chris Hussey noted, just like in Legoland, this ‘Everything is awesome!’ environment may still be riddled with risks.
While stocks are pricing in a ‘soft landing’, Goldman’s Jan Hatzius warns the biggest red flag: downward earnings revisions have been extreme and have only looked like this in past recessions (2000 and 2008). We are hesitant to look through this dependable market indicator and believe prudent portfolio managers should at least consider the implications if a hard landing transpires.
Additionally, Congress will need to raise the debt limit and renew government spending authority this year, but rule changes, the extremely thin margins of control in the House, and a divided Congress all raise the risk that the path is not smooth.
But hey, for now, it’s all good… “Goldilocks” and all that shit… so BTFD!!! All the US Majors were higher on the week, extending the gains from Friday’s payrolls print with Small Caps and Nasdaq leading the charge up 8% (S&P up over 5% and Dow up over 4%)…
The S&P 500 closed at 3999, just above its 200DMA. The Nasdaq closed a tick or two above its 100DMA…
The last six days have been one giant short-squeeze with ‘most shorted’ stocks up over 18% in an almost unbroken buying panic…
Banks stocks were all ugly in the pre-market after somewhat disappointing earnings, and most notably loss provisions, but as soon as the cash markets opened, they went bid and ramped into the green…
Wondering why we suddenly ripped this week… Fed reserve balances surged…
VIX has been clubbed like a baby seal since the start of the year, now at its lowest level since January 2022…
Bonds were bid this week, also extending their gains from the payrolls print last Friday, with the belly outperforming (5Y -31bps since before the jobs data). The long-end lagged the rest of the curve but yields were still down over 18bps since payrolls…
The yield curve (3m10Y) has done nothing but flatten (invert more deeply) since the start of the year as recession fears grow. This is – by far – the deepest inversion of this key recession indicator… ever…
But at the short-end, we note that while Fed rate trajectory expectations drifted dovishly most of the week, since the payrolls print sent them down hard, Friday saw a hawkish shift…
The dollar suffered its worst week in 2 months, falling to its weakest since June (and triggered a ‘death cross’). The USD Index is down over 3% since the payrolls print last Friday…
Bitcoin is up 10 straight days (and 12 of last 13), topping $19,000 today (with its best run since Oct 2021)…
For some context, BTC is trading just below its 200DMA…
Ethereum also surged this week, topping $1400 for the first time since the FTX debacle collapse…