How much will U.S. oil production grow this year—this is the question on a lot of minds, both in the United States itself, and across the world. After proving it could become a game-changer for the global oil market a decade ago, the U.S. shale patch is once again the focus of attention but this time because it is not growing the way it used to. Instead, U.S. shale drillers are being cautious for the first time since the shale boom began. Forecasts about U.S. oil production, then, have been largely cautious, too, when analysts saw that shale…