jan 17 · by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit
GOLD PRICE CLOSED: DOWN $11.45 at $1907.15
SILVER PRICE CLOSED: DOWN $0.35 to $23.92
Access prices: closes : 4: 15 PM
Gold ACCESS CLOSE 1908.10
Silver ACCESS CLOSE: 23.91
Bitcoin morning price:, 21,201 UP 1803 DOLLARS (RANSOM MONEY REASON FOR RISE)
Bitcoin: afternoon price: $21353 UP 1955 dollars
Platinum price closing $1043.45 DOWN $24.05
Palladium price; closing 1745,70 DOWN $45.15
END
Due to the huge rise in the dollar, we must look at gold and silver in currencies other than the dollar to understand where we are heading
I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros/4: 15 PM ACCESS
CANADIAN GOLD: $2569.98 DOWN $15.23 CDN dollars per oz
BRITISH GOLD: 1552.54 DOWN 18.43 pounds per oz
EURO GOLD: 1768.43 DOWN 2.54 euros per oz
EXCHANGE: COMEX
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JANUARY 2023 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,918.400000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 01/13/2023 DELIVERY DATE: 01/18/2023
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 73
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 1
661 C JP MORGAN 23 1
880 H CITIGROUP 96
TOTAL: 97 97
JPMorgan stopped 1/97
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GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR JAN/2023. CONTRACT: 97 NOTICES FOR 9700 OZ or .3017 TONNES
total notices so far: 2240 contracts for 224000 oz (6.967 tonnes)
SILVER NOTICES: 29 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 145,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month 865 for 4,325,000 oz
END
GLD
WITH GOLD DOWN $11.45
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: //
INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.14 TONNES
Silver//SLV
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 35 CENTS
AT THE SLV// :/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV
CLOSING INVENTORY: 506.200 MILLION OZ (THIS IS ALSO A CRIME SCENE@!!!!
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 1972 CONTRACTS TO 131,733 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR $0.46 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON FRIDAY. FOR THE PAST WEEK, OUR BANKERS HAVE RETURNED TO BEING NET SHORT AND THUS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.46 AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPEC LONGS, AS WE HAD A GIGANTIC GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 2355 CONTRACTS. AS WELL, WE HAD ZERO EXCHANGE FOR RISK TRANSFER ( 0 CONTRACTS) AS THE TOTAL ISSUED IN THIS CATEGORY SO FAR THIS MONTH TOTAL 3.75 MILLION OZ. WE HAVE FINISHED WITH OUR SPECS BEING SHORT AS THEY COVERED WITH THE RISE IN PRICE . WE HAVE NOW RETURNED TO OUR USUAL AND CUSTOMARY SCENARIO: BANKERS SHORT AND SPECS LONG .AND AS USUAL OUR REMAINING SPEC SHORTS GOT BEATEN UP AGAIN.
WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 4,055. MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE. JUMP OF 95,000 OZ//NEW STANDING 4.350 MILLION OZ + 3.75 MILLION OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK// V) GIGANTIC SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/ SMALL EFP ISSUANCE/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL –101
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS JAN. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF JAN:
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 10 days, total 4780 contracts: OR 23.950 MILLION OZ PER DAY. (478 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 23.95 MILLION OZ
.
LAST 17 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH: 207.430 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
JAN 2023/// 23.95 MILLION OZ
RESULT: WE HAD A GIGANTIC SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1972 WITH OUR $0.46 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// THURSDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 282 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR MAR AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JAN OF 4.055 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 95,000 OZ. JUMP / //NEW STANDING INCREASES TO 4.350 MILLION OZ + EFR 3.75 MILLION = 8.100 MILLION OZ. .. WE HAVE A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 2254 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 11,27 MILLION OZ.. THE SILVER SHORTS HAVE BEEN HURT BADLY WITH SILVER’S HUGE RISE LATELY.
WE HAD 29 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 145,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A VERY STRONG SIZED 10.855 CONTRACTS TO 497,693 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED 1719 CONTRACTS.
.
THE GIGANTIC SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI (10,855 CONTRACTS) CAME WITH OUR $22.90 GAIN IN PRICE. WE ALSO HAD A SMALL INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR JAN. AT 2.1710 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 505 CONTRACTS OR 50,500 OZ //(QUEUE JUMPING = EXERCISING LONDON BASED EFP’S ) (EFP is the transfer of contracts immediately to London for potential gold deliveries originating from London). NEW STANDING 8.2861 TONNES
YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $22.90 GAIN IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S TRADING
WE HAD A GIGANTIC SIZED GAIN OF 16,417 OI CONTRACTS (51 .063 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 3843 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 497,693
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A GIGANTIC SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 14,698 CONTRACTS WITH 10,855 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 3843 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 14,698 CONTRACTS OR 45.72 TONNES.
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (3843 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE GIGANTIC SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (10,855) TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 14,698 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR NORMAL FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING SHORT AND SPECULATORS GOING LONG ,2.) SMALL INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR JAN. AT 2.1710 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 50500 OZ /NEW STANDING 8.2861 TONNES///3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION //4) GIGANTIC SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER/
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY
JAN
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JAN :
28,146 CONTRACTS OR 2,814,600 OZ OR 87.54 TONNES 10 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2815 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 10 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES:87.54 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2021, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 87.54/3550 x 100% TONNES 2.46% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023
JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)
FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..
MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/
APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)
MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)
JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)
JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH: 409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247,44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
JAN 2023: 87.54 TONNES INITIAL
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF FEB. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF BOTH GOLD (
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR BOTH GOLD:
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (NOV), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 1972 CONTRACTS OI TO 131,733 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO.
EFP ISSUANCE 400 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
MAR 282 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 282 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 1972 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 282 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN A HUGE GAIN OF 2254 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 11.27 MILLION OZ//
OCCURRED DESPITE OUR 46 CENT GAIN IN PRICE ….. OUR SPEC SHORTS HAVE NOWHERE TO HIDE!
OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY
1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,
(Peter Schiff,
end
3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,
4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
end
5. Other gold/silver commentaries
6. Commodity commentaries//CORN
7/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
3. ASIAN AFFAIRS
i)TUESDAY MORNING//MONDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 3.35 PTS OR 0.10% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 169.08 PTS OR 0.78% /The Nikkei closed UP 316.36 PTS OR 1.23% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.10% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN TO 6.7761//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN TO 6.7839// /Oil UP TO 80.19 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 85.62 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 C CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A VERY STRONG SIZED 12,574 CONTRACTS UP TO 499,412 WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $22.90
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE NON-ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JAN… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 3843 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: ;: , . 0 FEB: 3843 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 3843 CONTRACTS
WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION, EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A GIGANTIC SIZED TOTAL OF 16,417 CONTRACTS IN THAT 3843 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED COMEX OI GAIN OF 12,574 CONTRACTS..AND THIS HUGE SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $22.90. WE ARE NOW WITNESSING THE BANKERS GOING NET SHORT AND THE SPECS GOING NET LONG AS THE SPEC SHORT FOLLY HAS ENDED.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING Jan (8.2861)
TONNES),
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL (TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR 591.535 TONNES)
Dec. 64.541 tonnes
JAN/2023: 8.2861 tonnes
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE $22.90) //// AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A GIGANTIC GAIN OF 16,417 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES // WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 51.063PAPER TONNES OF TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JAN. (2.1710 TONNES) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 50,500 oz OR 1.5707 TONNES…THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR RISE IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $22.90.
WE HAD – 1719 CONTRACTS COMEX TRADES REMOVED FROM OPEN INTEREST AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 16,417 CONTRACTS OR 1,641,700 OZ OR 51.043 TONNES
Estimated gold comex today 285,077//good//
final gold volumes/yesterday 317,432///good
INITIAL STANDINGS FOR JAN 2023 COMEX GOLD //JAN 17//
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | nil oz . |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | nil oz |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | nil oz |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 97 notice(s) 9700 OZ 0.3017 TONNES |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 424 contracts 42,400 oz 1.3188 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 2240 notices 224000 6.967 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month | xxx oz |
i)Dealer deposits: 0
total dealer deposit: nil oz
No dealer withdrawals
Customer deposits: 0
total deposits: nil oz
customer withdrawals: 0
Total withdrawals: nil oz
total 0 oz
total in tonnes: 0 tonnes
Adjustments:0
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JANUARY.
For the front month of JANUARY we have an oi of 521 contracts having gained 391 contracts
We had 114 notices served on Friday, so we gained 505 contracts or an additional 50500 oz(1.5707 tonnes) will stand for delivery in this
very non active delivery month of January. (queue jump)
February lost 15,822 contacts to 255,708
March LOST 73 contracts to stand at 721.
April gained 23,571 contracts up to 188.560.
We had 97 notice(s) filed today for 9700 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 23 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 97 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 1 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JAN. /2023. contract month,
we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (2240 x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of (JAN.521 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 97 x 100 oz per contract equals 266,400 OZ OR 8.2861 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this non active month of January.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JAN contract month:
No of notices filed so far (2240 x 100 oz+ (521 OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (97} x 100 oz} which equals 266,400 oz standing OR 8.2861 TONNES in this NON active delivery month of JAN..
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 8.2861 TONNES (A STRONG STANDING FOR METAL//COMEX RUNNING OUT OF PHYSICAL TO SERVE UPON OUR LONGS.
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
we had one adjustment of 110,631.591 oz Brinks
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 o
total pledged gold: 1,956,708.688 OZ 60.861 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED: 22,781,209.077 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD: 11,077,098.948 OZ (344,54 tonnes)..dropping fast
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 11,704,110.129 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 9,120,390 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 283,68 tonnes//rapidly declining
END
SILVER/COMEX
JAN 17/2023//INITIAL JAN. SILVER CONTRACT
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 932,426.680 oz CNT Delaware Loomis |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | nil OZ |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | 716,334,659 oz HSBC |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 29 CONTRACT(S) (145,000 OZ) |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 5 contracts (25,000 oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 865 contracts (4,325,000 oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
i) 0 dealer deposit
total dealer deposits: nil oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: oz
We have 1 deposits into the customer account
i)Into HSBC: 716,334,659 oz
Total deposits: 716,334.659 oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 151.997 million oz/295.343 million =51.47% of comex .//dropping fast
Comex withdrawals: 3
i) Out of CNT: 740,408.390 oz
ii) Out of Delaware 955.900 oz
iii) Out of Loomis: 191,062.390 oz
Total withdrawals; 932,426.680 oz
adjustments: 0
the silver comex is in stress!
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 33.195 MILLION OZ (declining rapidly).TOTAL REG + ELIG. 295.343 MILLION OZ
CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JAN
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF JAN/2023 OI: 34 CONTRACTS HAVING GAINED 3 CONTRACT(S.). WE HAD 16 NOTICES
FILED ON FRIDAY SO WE GAINED 19 CONTRACT(S) OR 95,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP BY THE BANKERS TO OBTAIN SOME SILVER OVER HERE.
FEB> GAINED 2 CONTRACTS TO 196 CONTRACTS
March GAINED 11147 CONTRACTS UP TO 110,414 contracts
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 29 for 145,000 oz
Comex volumes// est. volume today 84,581//strong
Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 62,980 contracts ( fair)
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JANUARY. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 865 x 5,000 oz = 4,325,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JAN(34) and the number of notices served upon today 29 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the JAN./2023 contract month: 865 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of JAN (34 – number of notices served upon today (29) x 500 oz of silver standing for the JAN. contract month equates 4.350 million oz + 3.75 MILLION OZ ( EXCHANGE FOR RISK) = 8.100MILLION OZ//(TOTAL OZ OF SILVER STANDING).
the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
Comex volumes:59,231// est. volume today// good
Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 76,646 contracts ( very good)
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS
JAN 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.45 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.14 TONNES
JAN 13/WITH GOLD UP $22.90 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.14 TONNES
JAN 12/WITH GOLD UP $20.55 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.43 TONNES
JAN 11/WITH GOLD UP $1.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.17 TONNES
JAN 10/WITH GOLD UP $1.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.33 TONNES
JAN 9/WITH GOLD UP $ 8.60 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES FROM THE GLD//.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.33 TONNES
JAN 6/WITH GOLD UP $28.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.77 TONNES
JAN 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.05 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES FORM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.77 TONNES
JANUARY 4/WITH GOLD UP $32.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.64 TONNES
JAN 3/WITH GOLD UP $20.00 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:STRANGE: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES FORM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.64 TONNES
DEC 30/WITH GOLD UP $.80 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.51 TONNES
DEC 29//WITH GOLD UP $8.35 TODAY:; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.51 TONNES
DEC 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.80 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 5.50 TONNES INTO THE GLD..//INVENTORY REST S AT 918.51 TONNES
DEC 27/WITH GOLD UP $18.15 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.01 TONNES
DEC 23/WITH GOLD UP $19,15 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.88 TONNES/
DEC 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $29.35 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.88 TONNES
DEC 21/WITH GOLD FLAT TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.88 TONNES
DEC 20/WITH GOLD UP $27.05: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.73 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.14 TONNES
DEC 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.10: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD> A BIG WITHDRAWAL OF 3.47 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 910.41 TONNES
DEC 16/WITH GOLD UP $12.45: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.32 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.88 TONNES
DEC 15//WITH GOLD DOWN $31.00: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 911.56 TONNES
DEC 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.20: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.32 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.72 TONNES
DEC 13/WITH GOLD UP $32.75: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.32 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 910.41
DEC 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.60: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.09 TONNES
DEC 9/WITH GOLD UP $8.90//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.09 TONNES
Dec 8/WITH GOLD UP $4.05, OVER THE PAST 3 WEEKS WE LOST 2.04 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.09 TONNES
NOV 14/WITH GOLD UP $7.30: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 910.12 TONNES
NOV 11/WITH GOLD UP $15.25//BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.19 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 911.57 TONNES
NOV 10/WITH GOLD UP $40.75: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.38 TONNES
NOV 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.89 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.38 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 912.14 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
JAN 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 35 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 506.200 MILLION OZ//
JAN 13/WITH SILVER UP 46 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.5 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 506.200 MILLION OZ//
JAN 12/WITH SILVER UP 44 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 508.700 MILLION OZ/
JAN 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 508.700MILLION OZ
JAN 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.65 MILLION OZ
JAN 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.65 MILLION OZ//
JAN 6/WITH SILVER UP 54 CENTS TODAY;BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 4.20 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.65 MILLION OZ//
JAN 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 50 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.10 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 505.45 MILLION OZ//
JAN 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 26 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.3 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 506.55 MILLION OZ/
JAN 3/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: STRANGE: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.2 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 507.85 MILLION OZ/
DEC 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.050 MILLION OZ
DEC 29/ WITH SILVER UP $0.63 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.050 MILLION OZ
DEC 28//WITH SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.715 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///..INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.050 MILLION OZ
DEC 27/WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/A WITHDRAWAL OF 550,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 507.350 MILLION OZ//
DEC 23/WITH SILVER UP 29 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT507.900 MILLION O//
DEC 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 53 CENTS TODAY;NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 507.90 MILLION OZ//
DEC 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.0 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 507.90 MILLION OZ//
DEC 20/WITH SILVER UP 105 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:: A DEPOSIT OF 700,000 OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.90 MILLION OZ//
DEC 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.05 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.20 MILLION OZ//
DEC 16/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.85 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 508.15 MILLION OZ//
DEC 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 78 CENTS: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF EXACTLY 2.00 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 510.000 MILLION OZ
DEC 14/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.7 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 512.000 MILLION OZ//
DEC 13/WITH SILVER UP 59 CENTS: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 600,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 513.900 MILLION OZ//
DEC 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 33 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.500 MILLION OZ//
DEC 9/WITH SILVER RISING 77 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.2 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.500 MILLION OZ.
DEC 8/WITH SILVER RISING 34 CENTS TODAY: OVER THE PAST 3 WEEKS, WE HAVE GAINED A STRONG: 44.777 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 516.700 MILION OZ.
NOV 14/WITH SILVER UP 41 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.923 MILLION OZ//
NOV 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 553,000 OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.923 MILLION OZ//
NOV 10/WITH SILVER UP 39 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 368,000 OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.476 MILLION OZ//
NOV 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/; A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.821 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.108 MILLION OZ//
CLOSING INVENTORY 506.200 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
1:Peter Schiff
Peter Schiff: The Recession Everybody Denies Exists Is Going To Get Worse
MONDAY, JAN 16, 2023 – 01:20 PM
Peter Schiff recently appeared on Dan Bongino’s Unfiltered on Fox News to talk about the economy, inflation, the stock market, the Federal Reserve and investing in 2023. Peter said the recession that everybody denies exists is going to get worse, and so is inflation.
Some people in the mainstream seem to think a big stock market rally is in the cards. Peter said the optimism is unfounded.
I don’t think it’s going to be a good year for the stock market. I think there are going to be some stocks that do well. Unfortunately, most Americans don’t own those stocks.”
Peter said the ones that most investors do own are going to go down.
The very popular stocks that a lot of people have crowded into during the bubble – these stocks, even though they’ve come down a lot in 2022, they still have a long way to fall. And I think there’s a lot of risk in 2023, not just in the market, but in the economy.”
Bongino referenced an op-ed in the New York Post by Ken Fisher arguing that the bad news, especially in the job market, is already written into the script and priced into the market. That means we may well have a “summer of love” in the stock market with a healthy rebound. Peter said people are underestimating just how bad the news is going to get.
First of all, a lot of people think inflation is going to come down. It’s not. I think the decline is what’s transitory. I think we’re going to be making new year-over-year highs in inflation before the end of the year.”
Peter has been arguing that a declining dollar and an ultimate Fed pivot away from monetary tightening will mean more inflation down the road, even if we get some relief in the CPI over the next few months. He drove this point home in a recent podcast.
That is the really important point that seems to be lost on everybody. What investors are trying to figure out is ‘has inflation peaked?’ Have we seen peak inflation? Now, I think the answer to that question is no. I don’t think inflation has peaked. Now, it may have peaked for a short period of time. It may take until the second half of 2023 before we get a year-over-year rate of inflation that was higher than the high water mark for 2022. Who knows? Maybe it will take into 2024. But the one thing that I’m certain of is that we’re not going anywhere near 2%. And that is what investors still don’t understand — that the days of low inflation are over, and we’re living in an era of high inflation. That is a complete game-changer for the Fed and the Fed has yet to come to terms with this new reality, nor has the market.”
And during his discussion with Bongino, Peter said the notion the economy is about to rebound is nothing but a fantasy.
The recession that everybody denies exists is actually going to get worse. So, we’re going to have a weaker economy and stronger inflation. The markets are not expecting that, and neither is the Fed.”
end
2 Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz//Rickards:
END
3. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries//
For those who missed this on Friday:
Russian bank’s digital gold may lead to gold payment for commodities, Maguire says
Submitted by admin on Fri, 2023-01-13 21:24Section: Daily Dispatches
9:22p ET Friday, January 13, 2023
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
The digital tokens for gold now being issued by Russia’s Sberbank may clear a path for the use of gold for payment for commodities in Russia, London metals trader Andrew Maguire says in this week’s “Live from the Vault” program from Kinesis Money.
Meanwhile, Maguire says, the derivatives structure of the London and New York gold and silver markets is cracking as paper increasingly is being converted to real metal under pressure of “Basel 3” regulations.
The interview is 38 minutes long and can be viewed at YouTube here:
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org
end
Tennessee legislators want sound money so they are proposing a state bullion depository similar
to the Alabama depository.
Tennessee legislators propose a state bullion depository
Submitted by admin on Fri, 2023-01-13 20:15Section: Daily Dispatches
From Money Metals News Service
Eagle, Idaho
Thursday, January 12, 2023
Building on the success of passing a full sales tax exemption on precious metals (HB 1874 and SB 1857) in 2022, lawmakers in Tennessee have set their sights on another pro-sound money effort: an in-state bullion depository.
Sen. Frank Niceley has introduced Senate Bill 150, the Tennessee Bullion Depository Act. It would establish a depository to operate either exclusively or nonexclusively as a precious metals depository and may be held and operated privately. A House version of the bill, sponsored by Rep. Bud Hulsey, is expected to be introduced soon
Sen. Niceley and Rep. Hulsey are champions of sound money, earning them the 2022 Sound Money Legislator of the Year award last year for their work on eliminating Tennessee’s state sales tax on gold and silver.
The depository would serve as the custodian, guardian, and administrator of certain bullion and specie that may be deposited with the depository by the State of Tennessee, a political subdivision, another instrumentality of the state, or by a private individual, party, or other entity. …
… For the remainder of the report:
end
Interesting: JPMorgan may move into gold/silver clearing in Zurich
(zerohedge)
Gold giant JPMorgan may move into precious metals clearing in Zurich
Submitted by admin on Sat, 2023-01-14 10:14Section: Daily Dispatches
By Eddie Spence
Bloomberg News
Thursday, January 12, 2023
JPMorgan Chase & Co. is looking to start clearing precious metals trades in Zurich, something that for years has been dominated by just two Swiss banks.
The lender may begin to offer to settle its clients’ trades using metal located in Zurich, according to people familiar with the matter who asked not to be identified as the information is private.
So-called loco Zurich transactions have long been almost exclusively handled by UBS Group AG and Credit Suisse Group AG. …
JPMorgan is looking to clear trades in Zurich for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium, the people said.
… For the remainder of the report:
end
A must view: China and Russia are weaponizing gold in their fight with USA hegemony and dollar supremacy
(South China Morning Post)
South China Morning Post: China and Russia are ‘almost certainly’ weaponizing gold
Submitted by admin on Sat, 2023-01-14 18:36Section: Daily Dispatches
Move Over, Cryptocurrency — Gold Could Have the Last Laugh This Year
By Anthony Rowley
South China Morning Post, Hong Kong
Sunday, January 15, 2023
There has been considerable excitement in the gold market lately with the price touching US1,900 an ounce last year and appearing likely to breach US$2,000 before long. But what is happening below the radar with the huge buildup of central bank gold holdings is of greater interest.
The People’s Bank of China and Russia’s central bank have been buying heavily, and while this may appear to be little more than shrewd, given that inflation is set to continue rising (even if at a slowing pace), these purchases have wider monetary and strategic significance.
They signify further challenges to the global financial and monetary order in 2023 as China and Russia seek, for their own separate reasons, to counter what has in effect become a tyranny of dollar domination. And they point to growing distrust and geopolitical tension between major economic powers. …
So, given that these two countries together represent a major force in global gold holdings as well as production, what are the likely implications of the relatively sudden buildup of gold reserves by their central banks? Are they “weaponising” the precious metal? Almost certainly, yes, and what more effective time to do so than when inflation is eroding the value of paper currencies (the dollar included), cryptocurrencies are losing their appeal as a supposed new form of “digital gold,” and investment demand for gold is rising? …
… For the remainder of the report:
end
Zimbabwe discovers that real gold actually works. The iMF naturally wants to stop its use:
(Bloomberg)
Zimbabwe discovers its gold money may work; IMF wants it to stop
Submitted by admin on Mon, 2023-01-16 11:09 Section: Daily Dispatches
Zimbabwe’s Gold Coins Sell Above $2,000 Each For The First Time
By Ray Ndlovu and Rene Vollgraaff
Bloomberg News
Monday, January 16, 2023
Zimbabwe’s gold coins introduced in July are selling above $2,000 for the first timE
The central bank introduced the gold coins to halt a collapse of the Zimbabwean dollar and to help ease demand for U.S. dollars. Smaller units were brought into circulation in November.
The International Monetary Fund urged authorities last month to wind down the use of the gold coins and to use appropriate interest-bearing instruments to carry out monetary policy
END
Schectman states that the world is turning towards monetary metals and commodities and away from the uSA day
Dunagun Kaiser/Liberty/Schectman)
Bullion dealer Schectman reviews trend away from dollar, praises GATA
Submitted by admin on Mon, 2023-01-16 11:54Section: Daily Dispatches
11:53a ET Monday, January 16, 2023
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Interviewed last week by Dunagun Kaiser of Liberty and Finance, Andy Schectman of coin and bullion dealer Miles Franklin reviewed the world’s steady migration toward the monetary metals and commodities and away from the U.S. dollar in anticipation of a transformation of the international financial system. Schectman also discusses what he considers excessive premiums for U.S. silver eagle coins as compared with other silver products.
Schectman offers extravagant praise for GATA’s work exposing manipulation of the monetary metals markets and challenging governments and mainstream news organizations.
The interview is an hour long and can be viewed at YouTube here:
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org
end
We now have evidence of the gold for oil policy: Ghana is to receive 41,000 metric tonnes of fuel for 40 million dollars worth of gold.(20909 oz or.65 tonnes )
(Graphic Online Accra/Ghana)
41,000 metric tonnes of fuel delivered to Ghana in exchange for gold
Submitted by admin on Mon, 2023-01-16 14:15Section: Daily Dispatches
By Donald Ato Dapatem
Graphic Online, Accra, Ghana
Monday, January 16, 2023
The first consignment from the gold-for-oil policy of the government to stem the increasing depreciation of the cedi against the major currencies has arrived at the Tema Port and been discharged into the receptacles of Bulk Oil Storage and Transportation Co. (BOST), Graphic Online has gathered.
The 41,000 metric tonnes of the petroleum products delivered by SCF YENISEI would be sold by BOST to bulk distributing companies (BDCs) around Ghana, a source has told Graphic Online.
Valued at $40 million, the shipment was brokered by the Economic Management Team led by Vice President Mahamudu Bawumia.
In November 2022 the government announced plans to buy oil products with gold rather than U.S. dollars.
Vice President Bawumia said the move was meant to tackle dwindling foreign currency reserves coupled with demand for dollars by oil importers, which was weakening the local cedi and increasing living costs.
“It will fundamentally change our balance of payments and significantly reduce the persistent depreciation of our currency,” Bawumia said.
He added that using gold would prevent the exchange rate from directly impacting fuel or utility prices as domestic sellers would no longer need foreign exchange to import oil products.
According to a Graphic Online source associated with the process, the first consignment cost $40 million worth of gold. …
… For the remainder of the report:
end
Sound money legislation introduced in Mississippi
(MMNews)
Sound money legislation introduced in Mississippi
Submitted by admin on Mon, 2023-01-16 21:57Section: Daily Dispatches
From Money Metals News Service
Eagle, Idaho
Monday, January 16, 2023
Lawmakers in Jackson, Mississippi, have just introduced legislation to exempt gold and silver coins, bars, and rounds from the state’s sales tax.
Rep. Jill Ford has reintroduced House Bill 508 at the beginning of the 2023 session.
This year’s legislative effort seeks to build on last year’s momentum. Last year Ford’s sales tax exemption bill passed out of the Mississippi House of Representatives overwhelmingly but it missed a deadline in the Senate needed to receive a hearing.
Two similar Mississippi bills have already been introduced this session (HB 23 and SB 2019).
Imposing taxes on the exchange of Federal Reserve notes for monetary metals (gold and silver) has become an unusual and outmoded practice in the United States. Only eight states still engage in it. …
… For the remainder of the report:
https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2023/01/16/sound-money-measures-introduced-in-mississippi-002659
end
4. Other gold/silver commentaries
article in full:
South China Morning Post: China and Russia are ‘almost certainly’
weaponizing gold
Move Over, Cryptocurrency — Gold Could Have the Last Laugh This
Year
By Anthony Rowley
South China Morning Post, Hong Kong
Sunday, January 15, 2023
There has been considerable excitement in the gold market lately
with the price touching US1,900 an ounce last year and appearing
likely to breach US$2,000 before long. But what is happening
below the radar with the huge buildup of central bank gold
holdings is of greater interest
The People’s Bank of China and Russia’s central bank have been
buying heavily, and while this may appear to be little more than
shrewd, given that inflation is set to continue rising (even if
at a slowing pace), these purchases have wider monetary and
strategic significance.
They signify further challenges to the global financial and
monetary order in 20 23 as China and Russia seek, for their own
separate reasons, to counter what has in effect become a tyranny
of dollar domination. And they point to growing distrust and
geopolitical tension between major economic powers. …
So, given that these two countries together represent a major
force in global gold holdings as well as production, what are the
likely implications of the relatively sudden buildup of gold
reserves by their central banks? Are they “weaponising” the
precious metal? Almost certainly, yes, and what more effective
time to do so than when inflation is eroding the value of paper
currencies (the dollar included), cryptocurrencies are losing
their appeal as a supposed new form of “digital gold,” and
investment demand for gold is rising? …
… For the remainder of the report:
https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article /3206560/move-over-
cryptocurrency-gold-could-have-last-laugh-year
end
Commodity commentaries//GLOBAL FREIGHT
END
IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES ON COMMODITIES:COPPER
With China opening its economy up, copper should benefit.
(ING Economics)
China Reopening Boosts Copper Outlook
MONDAY, JAN 16, 2023 – 08:20 PM
By Ewa Manthery of ING Economics
Copper jumped above $9,000/t for the first time since June at the beginning of 2023 on optimism about China’s economy, after Beijing abandoned its zero-Covid policy.
We believe there is more upside for copper prices as demand in China picks up after the Lunar New Year holiday at the end of this month.
Copper benefits from zero-Covid exit
Copper has been rallying since late November amid a series of supportive policies in China and Beijing’s abrupt abandonment of Covid controls. The red metal has also received support from the weaker US dollar, which slid to a near seven-month low recently on growing expectations for a less hawkish Federal Reserve after cooler inflation and employment data.
In our November outlook, we said China remained the big question mark for the copper market going forward. There have been important developments since then, with China making a full U-turn on its zero-Covid strategy.
The virus was officially downgraded on 8 January when international arrivals were no longer required to quarantine.
China’s lifting of Covid measures will, in time, help the economy to normalise, our China economist believes. But we can expect the short-term to be dominated by the very high level of Covid cases, which have come at a time when the economy is already very weak.
Looking at other economies in the region which have suffered similar severe waves of Covid (India’s Delta wave) we would expect this wave to last no more than three months at which time the economy could start to revert to a more normal footing. Zeng Guang, the former chief scientist at the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, has recently said that China’s Covid outbreak could continue for another two to three months.
However, this could also coincide with the US and Europe entering recession, which will weigh on any manufacturing recovery and export growth even as China’s domestic issues abate.
We believe, for copper, China’s Covid policy change should prove supportive for demand in the medium to long run, although rising Covid infections could weigh on demand in the immediate term.
Copper is rising on China reopening, slower Fed rate hikes
Property stimulus improves confidence
Beijing has released a raft of policy measures in recent weeks which have increased confidence that the economy is stabilising, improving the outlook for industrial metals, including copper. For almost two decades, China’s property sector growth and the country’s rapid urbanisation have been the key driver of growth for copper demand.
China will return to “normal” growth soon as Beijing steps up support for households and businesses, Guo Shuqing, party secretary of the People’s Bank of China, told state media recently.
The world’s biggest consumer of copper is expected to quickly rebound because of the country’s optimised Covid response and after its economic policies continue to take effect, Guo said.
In its most recent move, China is planning to allow some property firms to add leverage by easing borrowing caps and pushing back the grace period for meeting debt targets. The move would relax the strict “three red lines” policy which had contributed to a historic property downturn, hitting demand for industrial metals. The easing would add to a raft of policy moves issued since November to bolster the ailing property sector, which accounts for around a quarter of the country’s economy.
China’s economy ended 2022 in a major slump. Factory activity in the country contracted in December at the fastest pace in nearly three years. The official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) slumped to 47 last month from 48 in November, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.
It was the biggest drop since February 2020 and also marked the third straight month of contraction for the index.
The non-manufacturing PMI, which measures activity in the services sector, plunged to 41.6 last month from 46.7 in November. It also marked the lowest level in nearly three years.
And although the government has stepped up its support for the property market, the effects are still slow to take effect – home sales fell again in December. The 100 biggest real estate developers saw new home sales drop 30.8% from a year earlier to 677.5 billion yuan ($98.2 billion) in December, according to data from China Real Estate Information Corp. That compared with a 25.5% decline in November.
Housing prices fell 0.25% in December from the previous month, the 16th consecutive month of declines.
We believe more stimulus and infrastructure spending could be unveiled at the National People’s Congress in March, which is likely to boost demand for commodities further.
Global stocks at multi-year lows
The demand boost for copper comes at a time when global stockpiles held by exchanges remain low. Last year, shrinking inventories were overshadowed by weakening global demand, but a revival in demand this year could set up the market for further squeezes and spikes in prices.
Copper stocks in LME warehouses remain low, representing just two days’ worth of global usage. Inventories on the SHFE and COMEX are also extremely low. Between the three exchanges, global copper inventories are now down to just a few days of consumption.
More price upside ahead
We have increased our 2023 copper price forecast amid China’s reopening optimism, but we maintain a cautious view for the first quarter as Covid cases across China continue to rise. We now see copper prices averaging $8,700/t in the first quarter. We believe any further gains are likely to be capped as the Lunar New Year approaches.
Following a surge in cases, economic activity will start to revert to a more normal footing with demand recovering by the second quarter.
But we expect this to be temporary and China’s Covid policy change should prove supportive for copper demand in the medium and long term.
We believe that once China gets over the current wave of Covid-19 infections and the country learns to live with Covid, a recovery in Chinese demand will boost copper prices further.
We expect prices to continue to recover from the second quarter onwards on the back of improving reopening sentiment and tight inventories with prices hovering around $9,100/t in the fourth quarter.
However, global macroeconomic headwinds are likely to persist in 2023 and the risk of global recession will remain a threat to the demand recovery in China, capping further gains.
Any further spikes in copper prices will also depend on the US Federal Reserve’s stance towards its monetary policy. Less aggressive tightening would limit any upside in the US dollar and could further boost copper prices.
Longer-term, we still believe copper demand will improve amid the accelerated move into renewables and electric vehicles (EVs). In EVs, copper is a key component used in the electric motor, batteries, and wiring, as well as in charging stations. Copper cannot be substituted in EVs or wind and solar energy, and its appeal to investors as a key green metal will support higher prices over the next few years.
ING forecasts
-END-
6/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
END
.
1. YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS//TUESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 6.77761
OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.7839
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 3.36 PTS OR 0.10%
HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 169.089 PTS 0.78%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 316.36 PTS OR 1.23%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL RED
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 101.96 Euro RISES TO 1.0844 UP 15 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.540!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 128.58/JAPANESE YEN RISING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN: DOWN-// OFF- SHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN’S worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.195%***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 4.060%*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 3.185…** DANGEROUS//
3i Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO 4.17//
3j Gold at $1913.00//silver at: 24.07 7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 42/100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 68.85//
3m oil into the 80 dollar handle for WTI and 85 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 128.66/10 YEAR YIELD BREAKS .50% TO .54%
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.9218– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9997 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.573% UP 6 BASIS PTS…GETTING DANGEROUS
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.689 UP 7 BASIS PTS//
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18,79…
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: 3.489 % UP 13 BASIS PTS
end
i.b Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:
FIRST, ZEROHEDGE (PRE USA OPENING// MORNING
Futures Trim Losses As Focus Turns To Earnings
TUESDAY, JAN 17, 2023 – 07:36 AM
US stock futures slipped for a second day as investors braced for a busy week of parsing earnings reports for signs of an earnings recession, falling profitability and an economic slowdown. Contracts on the S&P 500 fell 0.2% at 7:10 a.m. ET, recovering from a -0.5% drop earlier, while Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 0.3% after trading in the cash market was closed on Monday for a holiday. The dollar was flat after rebounding from an 8 month low on Monday while the US 10-year Treasury yield rises to top about 3.55%.
In premarket trading, shares of Chinese electric-vehicle makers like XPeng Inc. retreated amid worries over demand and competition after the company slashed prices on its models in China. Bank stocks were also lower as Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley were set to report their fourth-quarter results before the bell. In corporate news, Bank of America shares got their only sell-equivalent rating after the company flagged a slowdown in lending last week. Whirlpool fell 6% in early New York trading after reporting fourth-quarter net sales of $4.90 billion, compared with forecasts for $5.15 billion. Freeport McMoRan slid 2.6%. Bloomberg Intelligence analysts predict copper could fall to $8,000 a ton from more than $9,000 now as physical demand indicators are weakening. Here are some other notable premarket movers:
- Pfizer (PFE US) stock slides 1.5% after it was cut to equal-weight from overweight at Wells Fargo, which sees an earnings downgrade cycle on the horizon for the pharma giant.
- Cryptocurrency-related stocks rally, as Bitcoin extends its winning streak into a 14th day and trades above the $21,000 level. Coinbase +6%, Riot Platforms +8.3%, Bakkt +10%, Marathon Digital +9.4%
- MGO Global rises 43% to $6.65 in premarket trading, reversing losses from a volatile initial trading session in which the stock more than tripled before closing lower, the latest in a series of wild debuts for US small-cap listings.
- Keep an eye on Tesla after Jefferies cut its target for the stock to $180 from $350, as the brokerage slashed sales and earnings estimates for the electric-car maker. The company last week cut prices across its lineup in an effort to stoke demand after several quarters of disappointing deliveries.
- Watch Wells Fargo stock as it was cut to hold from buy at Jefferies with the risk-reward on the US lender now looking more balanced.
- Keep an eye on utilities as KeyBanc Capital Markets turned more negative on the outlook for the sector into 2023, downgrading CenterPoint Energy and Southern Co to sector weight.
- Watch Global Payments stock as it was upgraded to overweight at Morgan Stanley, which says that fintech and payments sector offers “increasingly compelling” valuations from a more favorable backdrop.
- Piper Sandler downgrades Bandwidth (BAND US), DigitalOcean (DOCN US) and RingCentral (RNG US) to neutral as it tweaks its cloud automation software ratings, with Nice (NICE US) upgraded to overweight and Nutanix (NTNX US) its top pick.
- Morgan Stanley is guarded on hardline, broadline and food retail coverage to start 2023 as it sees more headwinds than tailwinds, with the magnitude of the headwinds outweighing the tailwinds. Wayfair (W US) and Kroger (KR US) upgraded to equal-weight from underweight; National Vision (EYE US) downgraded to equal-weight from overweight.
Bank stocks reversed losses to trade higher on Friday, even after JPM CEO Jamie Dimon and BofA’s Brian Moynihan warned of an uncertain economic environment as four of the six biggest US lenders reported their fourth-quarter results. Lenders Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley report earnings on Tuesday. Investors will dissect results for the impact of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes and signs of consumer spending slowdown.
“The spread between our earnings model and consensus forecasts is nearly as wide as it’s ever been and suggests a drawdown in stocks for which most are not prepared,” Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson wrote in his latest gloomy note. “The main culprit is the elevated and volatile inflationary environment which is likely to play havoc with profitability.”
Meanwhile, according to Bank of America’s latest global fund manager survey, investors are the most underweight on US equities since 2005 as improving market sentiment sends them flocking toward cheaper regions. Allocation to US equities “collapsed” during the first month of 2023, with investors a net 39% underweight the asset class, they said, exceeding even the UK’s 15%. At the same time, participants in the January poll were “a lot less bearish” than in the fourth quarter, sparking a rotation to emerging markets, Europe and cyclical stocks, and away from pharmaceuticals, technology and the US, strategists led by Michael Hartnett wrote in a note.
Investors had their expectations for a pause in central-bank tightening damped by ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane, who said interest rates will have to move into restrictive territory to bring inflation back to target. BlackRock Inc. Vice Chairman Philipp Hildebrand said he saw no chance of policy easing this year. Data including a record increase in UK wages signaled further rate hikes are necessary.
“We’ve just hit pause and I am sure there’s some profit taking,” said James Athey, investment director at Edinburgh-based abrdn. “We‘re into the earnings season which likely brings with it risks and volatility. If you run a risk-parity or 60/40 book, you’ve done brilliantly already this year. It seems prudent to trim some risk.”
US corporate earnings may set the tone for traders this week as the reporting season moves up a gear. Of the 30 companies on the S&P 500 that have posted earnings so far, 24 have beaten analysts’ expectations. However, UBS Wealth Management expects “quite a bit of downside here on the earnings” in the US, according to Hartmut Issel, head of Asia Pacific equities.
European stocks and bonds are both in the red as investors contemplated the prospect of ongoing monetary tightening after ECB Chief Economist Lane said rates will have to move into restrictive territory. The BOE are also facing pressure to continue hiking after UK wages rose at their fastest rate on record, excluding the pandemic. The Stoxx 600 was down 0.2% and on course to snap a four-day winning streak with technology, real estate and autos leading declines. Here are some of the most notable European movers:
- ABB shares rise as much as 1.9% after Redburn upgrades stock to buy from sell, saying recent business exits could mean the Swiss industrial group can grow faster than earlier expected
- Wacker Chemie, one of Europe’s largest producers of polysilicon, rose as much as 3.7% after prices of the material used in solar panels surged in China
- Infineon shares rise as much as 2.4% after Barclays starts coverage of European semiconductor stocks with a preference for Infineon and STMicro, rating both overweight
- Alten shares rise as much as 4.5% after Kepler Cheuvreux raised its recommendation for the French engineering company to buy from hold, citing its ability to deliver strong growth
- Lindt shares rise as much as 1.1% after the Swiss chocolate maker delivered estimate-beating organic sales growth, Vontobel says, with FY23 guidance in line with mid-term targets
- Wise shares fall as much as 7.1% after the UK money-transfer firm’s volume growth slowed, coming in below analyst expectations in the fiscal third quarter
- Ocado Group shares decline as much as 11% after the online grocer reported 4Q retail sales that missed analyst estimates. Morgan Stanley said period performance was “disappointing”
- Philips falls as much as 5.6% after UBS cut the Dutch medical technology group to sell, describing a recent month-long rally as “unjustified,” and flagging downside risks to earnings
- Hugo Boss drops as much as 2.7% as Deustche Bank said a “mild” beat of 4Q consensus estimates failed to impress investors
Asian stocks were mixed as investors assessed data on China’s economic growth and braced for the Bank of Japan’s key policy decision due Wednesday. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was little changed as of 4:30p.m. Hong Kong time, as losses in financial shares offset an advance in consumer discretionary stocks. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell 0.8%, ending a four-day rally. Alibaba gained 1% after news that billionaire-investor Ryan Cohen has acquired a stake worth hundreds of millions of dollars in the second half of last year. China’s CSI 300 Index ended flat after a report showed the nation’s gross domestic product grew 3% in 2022, higher than economists expected. The market took a breather after three days of gains fueled by optimism over reopening and eased tech regulations.
“I believe that the market will welcome such numbers,” said Hao Hong, chief economist at Grow Investment Group, in a Bloomberg TV interview. Still, “if the property sector takes more time to recover, it will affect consumption as well. So this year is actually going to be more challenging than last year.” Investors in Asia will also monitor speeches by several Federal Reserve officials this week, as well as comments by central bankers during the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland.
Japanese stocks rose, ending a two-day loss, as investors adjusted positions before the Bank of Japan’s policy decision tomorrow. Although almost all economists polled by Bloomberg expect no change at the BOJ on Wednesday, some investors are bracing for more action as the central bank struggles to keep bond yields below its target. The Topix Index rose 0.9% to 1,902.89 as of the market close in Tokyo, while the Nikkei 225 advanced 1.2% to 26,138.68. Toyota Motor contributed the most to the Topix’s gain, increasing 2.5%. Out of 2,161 stocks in the index, 1,570 rose and 474 fell, while 117 were unchanged
Australian stocks dipped: the S&P/ASX 200 index closed slightly lower at 7,386.30, snapping four days of gains, as losses in mining and technology stocks weighed on the gauge. Most markets across Asia fell as traders digested data that showed China’s economy growing at the second slowest pace since the 1970s. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index rose 0.6% to 11,881.00
India’s benchmark stock gauge posted its biggest advance in more than a week as Reliance Industries led gains among energy firms amid improving outlook for the sector. The S&P BSE Sensex rose 0.9% to 60,655.72 in Mumbai, its largest single-day jump since Jan. 9. The NSE Nifty 50 Index rallied by a similar measure. All but three of the 20 sector sub-gauges compiled by BSE Ltd. gained, led by capital goods makers. Reliance Industries gained 1.4%, after five-straight declines, to push the oil-and-gas sector gauge to an all-time high after the government lowered windfall tax on locally-produced crude and export of diesel. Outlook for oil and gas companies has been improving as moderating crude prices allow state-run refiners to lower marketing losses while Reliance Industries benefits from higher margins.
The Bloomberg Dollar Index inched up 0.1% as the greenback traded higher against most of its Group-of-10 peers. Scandinavian currencies were the worst performers while the Swiss franc led G-10 gains.
- The pound gained and gilts slumped in the wake of UK labor data that showed wages rose at a near-record pace for the three months through November. Yields rose 5-7bps across the curve and traders also bolstered bets on the BOE’s peak rate
- The euro inched lower, but held above $1.08. Bunds eased across the curve and Italian bonds underperformed. Germany January ZEW investor expectations rose to 16.9 versus estimate -15.0
- Japan’s benchmark yield briefly rose above the central bank’s ceiling for a third day as the Bank of Japan starts a two-day policy meeting. The yen fell for a second day. Most economists expect the BOJ to stand pat although market watchers don’t rule out an adjustment including another widening of the yield band to 0.75 or higher, or a scrapping of the yield curve control
- The Australian and New Zealand dollars reversed an Asia session gain amid broad-based dollar strengthening. Australia’s consumer confidence jumped 5%, the largest monthly gain since April 2021, aided by a temporary respite from interest-rate increase as the Reserve Bank’s board doesn’t meet this month
In rates, the Treasury curve extended bear-steepening move after 30-year yields gap higher from the reopen after Monday’s US holiday. Treasury yields were cheaper by up to 7bp across long-end of the curve with 10-year note futures trading toward bottom of Monday’s range; 10-year yields around 3.56% and cheaper by ~5bp vs Friday’s close. Gilts weaker over London session after UK wages rise faster than forecast while European supply pressures also weigh on core rates. Long-end-led losses in US curve steepen 2s10s, 5s30s cash spreads by 5bp and 4bp vs Friday’s close. UK and German government bonds fall with 10-year borrowing costs rising 6bps and 2bps respectively.
In commodities, rose to session highs after earlier dropping WTI rose 0.65% to trade above $80. Spot gold falls roughly $10 to trade near 1,906/oz.
Bitcoin is essentially unchanged on the session and resides in particularly narrow sub-USD 400 parameters after last week’s marked upside.
To the day ahead now, and data releases include UK unemployment for November, the German ZEW survey for January, Canadian CPI for December, and the US Empire State manufacturing survey for January. Central bank speakers include the ECB’s Centeno and the Fed’s Williams. Finally, earnings releases include Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and United Airlines.
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 futures down 0.3% to 4,007.75
- MXAP little changed at 165.62
- MXAPJ down 0.4% to 544.25
- Nikkei up 1.2% to 26,138.68
- Topix up 0.9% to 1,902.89
- Hang Seng Index down 0.8% to 21,577.64
- Shanghai Composite down 0.1% to 3,224.25
- Sensex up 0.9% to 60,629.94
- Australia S&P/ASX 200 little changed at 7,386.29
- Kospi down 0.9% to 2,379.39
- STOXX Europe 600 down 0.1% to 454.10
- German 10Y yield little changed at 2.19%
- Euro little changed at $1.0822
- Brent Futures up 0.4% to $84.78/bbl
- Gold spot down 0.4% to $1,908.36
- U.S. Dollar Index up 0.17% to 102.38
Top Overnight News from Bloomberg
- ECB Governing Council member Mario Centeno said the euro-area economy is performing better than many anticipated in the face of record inflation and the energy crisis that erupted after Russia attacked Ukraine
- ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane said interest rates will have to move into “restrictive territory” to bring inflation back to target
- Investors are looking to bet against Italy’s peer-beating bond rally, saying the gains have gone too far. They argue the ECB is expected to keep hiking interest rates and is unlikely to stand in the way of a selloff given how narrow the spread over German bunds remains
- Investors are the most underweight on US equities since 2005 as improving market sentiment sends them flocking toward cheaper regions, according to Bank of America’s global fund manager survey
- Some 467,000 working days in the UK were lost to strikes in November, a 10-year high, after a wave of walkouts caused by the most severe cost-of-living crisis in a generation. Days lost over a six-month period reached the highest level since 1989-90
- The BOJ’s policy decision due Wednesday is shaping up to be the biggest risk for the dollar-yen pair since the global financial crisis. The currency pair’s overnight implied volatility jumped as high as 54.4 vol, the highest since November 2008, as traders positioned for another policy tweak following a surprise move in December
- An arbitrage trade that rattled Japan’s bond market last year looks to be back. The spread between the prices on Japanese 10-year debt and similar-maturity futures has swelled in recent weeks, providing room for so-called basis trades that try to take advantage of the difference
- This year is pivotal for the Japanese economy to move away from decades of deflationary thinking toward sustained real wage growth, according to the head of the country’s largest labor union
- While China’s GDP grew 3% last year, the second-slowest pace since the 1970s, fourth- quarter and December data came in better than economists had expected
- China’s population started shrinking in 2022 for the first time in six decades, the latest milestone in a worsening demographic crisis for the world’s second-largest economy
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks traded mixed in which most bourses lacked firm direction in the absence of a lead from the US due to MLK Jr. Day and despite the better-than-expected Chinese economic growth and activity data. ASX 200 was subdued with the index contained after it hit resistance at the 7,400 level, while an improvement in Westpac Consumer Confidence and an increase in Rio Tinto’s quarterly output did little to inspire trade. Nikkei 225 outperformed with strength in the auto sector driving the advances and as the BoJ kicked off its 2-day policy meeting with markets second-guessing what the central bank will decide regarding its ultra-easy policy. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were lacklustre despite encouraging data in which Chinese GDP, Industrial Production and Retail Sales figures all topped estimates. Nonetheless, the 3.0% growth for 2022 was much lower than the ‘abandoned’ target of around 5.5% and President Xi’s hint of at least 4.4% growth, while China also noted its population shrunk for the first time since 1961 and the death rate was the highest since 1974.
Top Asian News
- PBoC injected CNY 205bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate kept at 2.00% and injected CNY 301bln via 14-day reverse repos with the rate kept at 2.15% for a CNY 504bln net injection.
- China’s Customs said GDP grew 3.0% Y/Y in 2022 and that China was able to stabilise the economy, but added that the foundation for economic recovery is not solid yet, according to Reuters.
- China’s stats bureau stated China’s population in 2022 shrunk for the first time since 1961 and the death rate was the highest since 1974, although the stats bureau chief later noted they should not worry about China’s population decline and overall labour supply still exceeds demand. The stats bureau chief also said that benign inflation in China will create room for macro policies and that the property sector’s drag on economic growth this year will not be larger than in 2022, according to Reuters.
European equities trade marginally lower following a mixed APAC lead, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.3%. Sectors in Europe are now mostly lower with no overall bias, but with Chemicals and Industrials outperforming and Autos and Energy towards the bottom. US equity futures are softer but off worse levels with the ES holding above 4,000 throughout the Tuesday session.
Top European News
- ECB’s Centeno says Q4 growth within Europe is likely to be positive.
- European Economy Commissioner Gentiloni says we have to strengthen competitiveness by streamlining state aid rules, have a good EU-US partnership; need to support competitiveness, not begin a subsidy war with the US.
- European Commission President von der Leyen says to avoid fragmenting the EU’s single market and to support clean tech across the EU, EU has to step up finding; For medium term will prepare a European sovereignty fund but it will take time.
- Germany’s BDI President says mild recessionary tendencies will predominate at the start of the year, sees upward trend; Economy expected to shrink by 0.3% in 2023; sees real 1% increase in export of goods and services this year (vs 1.5% global trade).
FX
- A choppy Tuesday session thus far for the Dollar as the index matched yesterday’s 102.56 peak in APAC hours before waning towards the unchanged mark ahead of the European cash open.
- CNH is softer intraday despite supportive Chinese data overnight, which saw Q4 GDP, IP and Retail Sales top expectations across the board.
- USD/JPY is choppy in a 128.23-129.13 parameter, but within recent ranges, whilst the technical “death cross” is more evident as the 50 DMA (135.60) falls further below the 200 DMA (136.67).
- Mixed trade seen across both the EUR and GBP with the latter leading the way following the UK jobs data following strong wages metrics which subsequently lifted BoE market pricing for a 50bps hike (at the time) to around 72% from 63% pre-release.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.7222 vs exp. 6.7234 (prev. 6.7135)
Fixed Income
- Core benchmarks are downbeat after UK and German data, with USTs in tandem directionally but with magnitudes more contained ahead of Fed’s Williams.
- Bunds and, post-open, Gilts printed session lows of 137.66 and 103.37 respectively post-UK jobs data, with the benchmarks nearing but not retesting these points after a particularly strong ZEW release.
- Following the UK jobs data, we have seen an uptick in BoE pricing for 50bp in February to a 75% probability from circa. 63% pre-release.
Commodities
- WTI and Brent front-month futures diverge intraday on account of the US MLK holiday on Monday which resulted in no WTI settlement.
- WTI Feb holds onto a USD 79/bbl status whilst Brent trades on either side of USD 85/bbl in what has been a choppy session.
- Spot gold has been drifting lower as the Dollar remains firm, with the yellow metal trundling lower from highs of USD 1,919/oz down to around USD 1,905/oz.
- Base metals are softer across the board (but to varying degrees) despite the supportive Chinese data overnight as a firmer Dollar exerts pressure on the complex.
- China’s state planner, NDRC is to lower retail prices of gasoline an diesel by CNY 205/tonne and CNY 195/tonne respectively as of January 18th.
- Radio Free Europe’s Jozwiak writes “Review underway on the Russian oil price cap. Currently at USD 60 but I understand there is a good chance that it might be lowered a bit in upcoming weeks”.
- OPEC Secretary General is very bullish on China, and cautiously optimistic on the global economy; Chinese demand will grow by 500k barrels this year; waiting to see what happens after China’s New Year holiday (Jan 21st-29th).
Geopolitics
- Russian Defence Ministry discussed increasing the number of military personnel to 1.5mln (vs ~1.3mln in 2022), according to Tass; says major changes in Russian army will take place from 2023-26.
- Ukrainian President Zelensky said the attack in Dnipro underscores the need for new and faster decisions on weapons supplies, while he added they expect key decisions from partners on arms supplies at the Ramstein meeting.
- Russian-installed Donetsk authorities confirm that Russia has control of Soledar, via Tass.
- Russia deployed an SU-27 fighter plane to escort a German naval aircraft over the Baltic, according to Interfax.
- Russian Kremlin when asked about a potential meeting between the CIA’s Burns and Russia spy chief says “this kind of dialogue is beneficial”.
- UK is reviewing whether to designate Iran’s Revolutionary Guards as a terrorist organisation, according to FT.
- China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson says they are discussing the details of a visit from US Secretary of State Blinken.
- Iran’s IRGC have conducted “major drills” in the Persian Gulf, according to Tasnim; details light.
US Event Calendar
- 08:30: Jan. Empire Manufacturing, est. -8.6, prior -11.2
Central Bank Speakers
- 15:00: Fed’s Williams Gives Welcoming Remarks
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
I hope you are all looking forward to the rest of the year now after Blue Monday was navigated yesterday, which flew hot on the heels of Friday 13th at the end of last week. To be fair markets of late haven’t been either depressing or scary. However we took pause for breath yesterday, given the US holiday, with nothing much happening. The main news has instead been overnight, where we’ve just had the release of the Chinese GDP figures for Q4 that covers the December surge in Covid cases. The data was better than expected but still showed the scars from Covid.
Q4 GDP (+2.9%) beat expectations (+1.6%) with the FY at +3% (+2.7% expected and +8.1% in 2021) – the second lowest year since China re-emerged from the economic wilderness in the 1970s. Momentum was much stronger than expected in December though. Retail sales dropped -1.8% y/y in December, much better than -9.0% fall expected by analysts and compared to a -5.9% decline in the prior month. Meanwhile, industrial production grew +1.3% y/y, well above the +0.1% predicted by Bloomberg. At the same time, fixed asset investment for 2022 rose by +5.1%, slightly above the +5% expected by Bloomberg.
Asian markets are lower though led by the Hang Seng (-1.25%) followed by the KOSPI (-0.77%), the Shanghai Composite (-0.27%) and the CSI (-0.16%). Elsewhere, the Nikkei (+1.28%) is bucking the trend this morning, recouping some of the losses from the previous two sessions. In overnight trading, stock futures in the US are indicating a negative opening with contracts on the S&P 500 (-0.32%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.54%) trading in the red. Meanwhile, yields on 10yr USTs (+2.95 bps) have edged higher to 3.53% after the holiday.
Looking back at yesterday now, it was an incredibly uneventful session for the most part, even adjusting for the impact of the US holiday. For instance, if you look at US futures markets (since spot markets were closed), S&P 500 futures had barely budged by the time Europe went home, with a modest decline of -0.10%. It was a similar story for bonds, where futures also saw little change, perhaps in part since expectations of the Fed’s terminal rate for June moved up by just +0.002bps on the day. That said, despite the lack of excitement, the VIX index of volatility ticked up from its one-year low on Friday, moving up +1.14pts to 19.49pts.
Back in Europe there wasn’t much happening either, but one trend to note was the continued decline in natural gas futures yesterday, which fell back to a 16-month low of €55.45 per megawatt-hour. Although these prices are still well above their historic norms, they’ve now come down by more than half in the last month, so this is a big and positive shock if it ends up being sustained. In turn, that led to a fresh decline in inflation expectations, and the 10yr German breakeven came down a further -2.9bps to a 3-month low of 2.05%.
That greater optimism on the inflation side wasn’t enough to prevent a modest decline in sovereign bonds yesterday, with yields on 10yr bunds (+0.6bps), OATs (+0.6bps) and BTPs (+0.6bps) all seeing a small increase. Gilts were an underperformer, with 10yr yields up +1.8bps rise on the day as UK assets more broadly saw a slight underperformance. That came as BoE Governor Bailey testified before the Treasury Committee of MPs, where he warned that there was a risk that inflation wouldn’t drop as fast as expected. Overall however, there was nothing revelatory on how they’re thinking about the next decision on February 2.
With the positive gas news boosting sentiment more broadly, European equities advanced for the most part. The STOXX 600 rose +0.46%, taking the index up to its highest level since April, with other advances for the FTSE 100 (+0.20%), the DAX (+0.31%) and the CAC 40 (+0.28%). That continues the very positive start to the year for European equities, and means that the YTD returns now stand at +7.00% for the STOXX 600 and +8.69% for the DAX.
Finally, the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting at Davos opened last night, which will continue for the rest of the week. Numerous political and business leaders are gathering there, and today’s speakers include European Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen, Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, Spanish PM Pedro Sánchez and German finance minister Christian Lindner. Separately, it’s not actually a Davos meeting, but we heard yesterday that US Treasury Secretary Yellen and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He would be meeting in Zurich.
To the day ahead now, and data releases include UK unemployment for November, the German ZEW survey for January, Canadian CPI for December, and the US Empire State manufacturing survey for January. Central bank speakers include the ECB’s Centeno and the Fed’s Williams. Finally, earnings releases include Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and United Airlines.
AND NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)
Fixed benchmarks lower post-data, with equities softer after a mixed APAC lead – Newsquawk US Market Open
TUESDAY, JAN 17, 2023 – 06:31 AM
- European equities trade marginally lower following a mixed APAC lead, US futures in-fitting
- A choppy session thus far for the USD, to the mixed fortune of peers with the CNH softer despite Chinese data
- Core fixed benchmarks are downbeat after UK and German data, with USTs in tandem directionally but with magnitudes more contained ahead of Fed’s Williams
- WTI and Brent diverge given the lack of settlement while both precious and base metals continue to drift
- Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian CPI, Speech from Fed’s Williams, Earnings from Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley & United Airlines.
View the full premarket movers and news report.
Or why not try Newsquawk’s squawk box free for 7 days?
MLK DAY HEADLINE RECAP
- Turkey’s Bosphorus Strait was shut after a vessel became wedged against its banks, the vessel was subsequently freed and the Strait reopened.
- US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will meet with senior Chinese official Liu He on Wednesday, according to WSJ
- China is reportedly to extend some income tax breaks until end-2023, via Bloomberg
- UK PM spokesperson says they would guide away from speculation that the UK and EU are to enter “tunnel” talks re. N. Ireland, adding there are still significant gaps between the sides. In the context of updates that a framework showing progress might be announced between the EU and UK negotiators, though this will not be a final deal, with subsequent updates downplaying the extent of any progress somewhat
- China flagged nearly 60k COVID deaths since easing restrictions in December and noted severe hospitalisations remained high but had already peaked.
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- European equities trade marginally lower following a mixed APAC lead, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.3%
- Sectors in Europe are now mostly lower with no overall bias, but with Chemicals and Industrials outperforming and Autos and Energy towards the bottom.
- US equity futures are softer but off worse levels with the ES holding above 4,000 throughout the Tuesday session.
- Click here for more detail.
FX
- A choppy Tuesday session thus far for the Dollar as the index matched yesterday’s 102.56 peak in APAC hours before waning towards the unchanged mark ahead of the European cash open.
- CNH is softer intraday despite supportive Chinese data overnight, which saw Q4 GDP, IP and Retail Sales top expectations across the board.
- USD/JPY is choppy in a 128.23-129.13 parameter, but within recent ranges, whilst the technical “death cross” is more evident as the 50 DMA (135.60) falls further below the 200 DMA (136.67).
- Mixed trade seen across both the EUR and GBP with the latter leading the way following the UK jobs data following strong wages metrics which subsequently lifted BoE market pricing for a 50bps hike (at the time) to around 72% from 63% pre-release.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.7222 vs exp. 6.7234 (prev. 6.7135)
- Click here for more detail.
FIXED INCOME
- Core benchmarks are downbeat after UK and German data, with USTs in tandem directionally but with magnitudes more contained ahead of Fed’s Williams.
- Bunds and, post-open, Gilts printed session lows of 137.66 and 103.37 respectively post-UK jobs data, with the benchmarks nearing but not retesting these points after a particularly strong ZEW release.
- Following the UK jobs data, we have seen an uptick in BoE pricing for 50bp in February to a 75% probability from circa. 63% pre-release.
- Click here for more detail.
COMMODITIES
- WTI and Brent front-month futures diverge intraday on account of the US MLK holiday on Monday which resulted in no WTI settlement.
- WTI Feb holds onto a USD 79/bbl status whilst Brent trades on either side of USD 85/bbl in what has been a choppy session.
- Spot gold has been drifting lower as the Dollar remains firm, with the yellow metal trundling lower from highs of USD 1,919/oz down to around USD 1,905/oz.
- Base metals are softer across the board (but to varying degrees) despite the supportive Chinese data overnight as a firmer Dollar exerts pressure on the complex.
- China’s state planner, NDRC is to lower retail prices of gasoline an diesel by CNY 205/tonne and CNY 195/tonne respectively as of January 18th.
- Radio Free Europe’s Jozwiak writes “Review underway on the Russian oil price cap. Currently at USD 60 but I understand there is a good chance that it might be lowered a bit in upcoming weeks”.
- OPEC Secretary General is very bullish on China, and cautiously optimistic on the global economy; Chinese demand will grow by 500k barrels this year; waiting to see what happens after China’s New Year holiday (Jan 21st-29th).
- Click here for more detail.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- ECB’s Centeno says Q4 growth within Europe is likely to be positive.
- European Economy Commissioner Gentiloni says we have to strengthen competitiveness by streamlining state aid rules, have a good EU-US partnership; need to support competitiveness, not begin a subsidy war with the US.
- European Commission President von der Leyen says to avoid fragmenting the EU’s single market and to support clean tech across the EU, EU has to step up finding; For medium term will prepare a European sovereignty fund but it will take time.
- Germany’s BDI President says mild recessionary tendencies will predominate at the start of the year, sees upward trend; Economy expected to shrink by 0.3% in 2023; sees real 1% increase in export of goods and services this year (vs 1.5% global trade).
NOTABLE DATA
- UK ILO Unemployment Rate (Nov) 3.7% vs. Exp. 3.7% (Prev. 3.7%); Employment Change (Nov) 27k vs. Exp. 10k (Prev. 27k)
- UK Average Week Earnings 3M YY (Nov) 6.4% vs. Exp. 6.2% (Prev. 6.1%, Rev. 6.2%); Ex-Bonus (Nov) 6.4% vs. Exp. 6.3% (Prev. 6.1%)
- German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jan) 16.9 vs. Exp. -15.0 (Prev. -23.3); Current Conditions (Jan) -58.6 vs. Exp. -58.0 (Prev. -61.4)
- First time since February 2022 the indicator is in positive territory, more favourable situation on the energy markets and the German gov’t energy price caps have contributed to this in particular.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- UK PM Sunak backed down on the online safety bill following a Tory rebellion, according to Telegraph.
- UK’s post-Brexit economy is reportedly facing a shortfall of over 300k workers, according to an estimate by the UK in a Changing Europe and the Centre for European Reform think tanks cited by FT.
- National Education Union announced that teachers will conduct strikes over pay in England and Wales on certain dates in February and March, while the Royal College of Nursing union announced additional strike dates on February 6th and 7th as nurses prepare to conduct strike action this week, according to the BBC.
- ECB’s Lane said they need to bring rates into restrictive territory with rates now at “ballpark” neutral, while he noted that rates must be raised high enough to restrict growth, according to an interview with FT.
- ECB’s de Cos reiterated that significant rate hikes will continue and incoming data will determine policy decisions.
- Click here for the US Early Morning note.
GEOPOLITICS
- Russian Defence Ministry discussed increasing the number of military personnel to 1.5mln (vs ~1.3mln in 2022), according to Tass; says major changes in Russian army will take place from 2023-26.
- Ukrainian President Zelensky said the attack in Dnipro underscores the need for new and faster decisions on weapons supplies, while he added they expect key decisions from partners on arms supplies at the Ramstein meeting.
- Russian-installed Donetsk authorities confirm that Russia has control of Soledar, via Tass.
- Russia deployed an SU-27 fighter plane to escort a German naval aircraft over the Baltic, according to Interfax.
- Russian Kremlin when asked about a potential meeting between the CIA’s Burns and Russia spy chief says “this kind of dialogue is beneficial”.
- UK is reviewing whether to designate Iran’s Revolutionary Guards as a terrorist organisation, according to FT.
- China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson says they are discussing the details of a visit from US Secretary of State Blinken.
- Iran’s IRGC have conducted “major drills” in the Persian Gulf, according to Tasnim; details light.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin is essentially unchanged on the session and resides in particularly narrow sub-USD 400 parameters after last week’s marked upside.
APAC TRADE
- APAC stocks traded mixed in which most bourses lacked firm direction in the absence of a lead from the US due to MLK Jr. Day and despite the better-than-expected Chinese economic growth and activity data.
- ASX 200 was subdued with the index contained after it hit resistance at the 7,400 level, while an improvement in Westpac Consumer Confidence and an increase in Rio Tinto’s quarterly output did little to inspire trade.
- Nikkei 225 outperformed with strength in the auto sector driving the advances and as the BoJ kicked off its 2-day policy meeting with markets second-guessing what the central bank will decide regarding its ultra-easy policy.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were lacklustre despite encouraging data in which Chinese GDP, Industrial Production and Retail Sales figures all topped estimates. Nonetheless, the 3.0% growth for 2022 was much lower than the ‘abandoned’ target of around 5.5% and President Xi’s hint of at least 4.4% growth, while China also noted its population shrunk for the first time since 1961 and the death rate was the highest since 1974.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- PBoC injected CNY 205bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate kept at 2.00% and injected CNY 301bln via 14-day reverse repos with the rate kept at 2.15% for a CNY 504bln net injection.
- China’s Customs said GDP grew 3.0% Y/Y in 2022 and that China was able to stabilise the economy, but added that the foundation for economic recovery is not solid yet, according to Reuters.
- China’s stats bureau stated China’s population in 2022 shrunk for the first time since 1961 and the death rate was the highest since 1974, although the stats bureau chief later noted they should not worry about China’s population decline and overall labour supply still exceeds demand. The stats bureau chief also said that benign inflation in China will create room for macro policies and that the property sector’s drag on economic growth this year will not be larger than in 2022, according to Reuters.
DATA RECAP
- Chinese GDP QQ SA (Q4) 0.0% vs. Exp. -0.8% (Prev. 3.9%); YY (Q4) 2.9% vs. Exp. 1.8% (Prev. 3.9%)
- Chinese Industrial Output YY (Dec) 1.3% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 2.2%); Retail Sales YY (Dec) -1.8% vs. Exp. -8.6% (Prev. -5.9%)
1.c TUESDAY/ MONDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 3.35 PTS OR 0.10% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 169.08 PTS OR 0.78% /The Nikkei closed UP 316.36 PTS OR 1.23% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.10% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN TO 6.7761//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN TO 6.7839// /Oil UP TO 80.19 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 85.62 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
2 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
end
2B JAPAN
Japan//COVID/VACCINES
They are baffled?
A must read….
(Guy Gin)
Japan’s Experts Baffled By High ‘COVID Deaths’ Despite High Vaccination Rate
SUNDAY, JAN 15, 2023 – 09:30 PM
Authored by Guy Gin via ‘Making (COVID) Waves In Japan’ Substack,
After three booster campaigns in 2022, the Japanese are now in a league of their own among mRNA consuming countries, administering far more boosters than countries that had far more coercive vax campaigns.
Japanese over 65 have done their best to reduce Japan’s 612-million-dose stockpile of mRNA jabs, with 3rd, 4th, and 5th jab rates of 91%, 82.5%, and 56%, respectively. But unfortunately, Japan has started 2023 by reporting its highest ever daily Covid death tolls. During the booster era starting in early 2022, each wave has been noticeably higher than the last.
What could possibly explain this? Let’s ask Takaji Wakita, chairman of Japan’s Covid Response Advisory Board.
The cause of the rise in Covid deaths is *hard to explain.*
What about Dr Satoshi Kamayachi, director of the Japan Medical Association?
JMA director on increased Covid deaths: “There’s a lot we don’t know, and we don’t have evidence.”
Nice to see an expert admit the limit of his knowledge. But there must be something Dr Kamayachi can tell us, right?
Dr Kamayachi, citing the rapid spread of Covid infections as one reason, explained that the majority of those who died were over 60 and many had underlying medical conditions. The direct cause of death is often heart failure or kidney disease, and he said that “thorough analysis is needed.”
Heart failure, you say? Well, it’s not like most Japanese over 60 have been injected multiple times with anything that causes cardiovascular problems, is it? And kidney disease is coincidentally a side-effect of Remdesivir, an approved Covid treatment in Japan.
Of course, Japan has been counting anyone who dies with a positive test result as a Covid death regardless of actual cause of death since 2020, but Dr Kamayachi and the rest of Japan’s experts haven’t bothered bringing up the issue of attribution until now. In fact, they were more than happy to cite inflated mortality data to help promote the jabs. But now that people may question why daily reported Covid deaths are higher than ever after the majority of over 65s have taken the experts’ advice to get multiple boosters, underlying medical conditions can apparently be discussed.
But although he’s three years late, Dr Kamayachi has a point. Although reported Covid deaths have been much higher in the booster era, far fewer Covid cases have been receiving mechanical ventilation (the gray line shows the number of ventilators/ECMO secured for Covid patients).
But even if hardly any of them have been struggling for breath on mechanical ventilation, Japan’s elderly have been dying in higher than expected numbers in the booster era. The national figures for December won’t be out until late Feb, but Yokohama (Japan’s second largest city) has already releases its all-cause death numbers for 2022. Somehow I doubt Dr Kamayachi will call for a “thorough analysis” to find out the cause of the increase since August.
All-cause deaths in Yokohama 2016-2022
Although there’s no good news here for Japan’s vaxed-to-the-max elderly, there is for Japan’s medical establishment: high numbers of Covid deaths mean the publicly funded Covid gravy train will keep going. From The Nikkei.
On 11th Jan, experts offered their views on reclassifying Covid-19 under the Infectious Diseases Act. In light of the current situation where the number of reported Covid deaths per day is the highest ever, the experts called for the government to continue to provide a certain amount of financial support to cover treatment and hospitalization costs and for securing hospital beds.
Basically, the government’s selected experts, including Dr. Wakita above, recommend that Covid should be downgraded “gradually”, i.e., medical costs should continue to be covered by public funds rather than health insurance/out-of-pocket payments like every other medical condition. This might seem reasonable. But under the current scheme of Covid support payments, hospitals can be paid ¥436,000 (US$3,370) per day to “secure” a single ICU bed regardless of whether anyone is in it. And overpriced Covid treatments include glorified cold medications like Shinogi’s Xocova.
So let’s recap what the experts have told us.
The cause of increased Covid deaths? “Dunno.”
Should the government keep showering medical institutions and pharma companies with money? “Absolutely!”
Well, what were you expecting them to say?
END
JAPAN/ITALY/USA//GLOBE
Ambrose Evans Pritchard..
from G…A MUST READ….
Central banks risk setting off a financial earthquake with constant rate rises, warns ex-IMF economist — check this article out could be very important!!
Breakneck monetary tightening by the major central banks is nearing a critical tipping point and risks triggering a chain-reaction of financial distress, the world’s leading expert on debt crises has warned.
“The combination of recession and rising real interest rates is very dangerous,” says Harvard professor Ken Rogoff, a former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund.
Prof Rogoff is best known for This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, a magisterial history of debt delusions co-written with Carmen Reinhart.
He believes it was a minor miracle that the world averted a financial crisis last year but the odds of a major accident are shortening as the delayed effects of past tightening feed through.
“We were very fortunate that we didn’t have a global systemic event in 2022, and we can count our blessings for that, but rates are still going higher and the risk keeps rising,” he told The Telegraph on the eve of the World Economic Forum in Davos.
Harvard professor Ken Rogoff says central banks are at risk of over-tighteningCREDIT: Erik Flyg/Bloomberg
“The risk of over-tightening by the European Central Bank is nothing less than catastrophic and they need to be very careful. Italy is extremely vulnerable,” says Prof Rogoff. “But this could pop anywhere. Global debt has gone up massively since the pandemic: public debt, corporate debt, everything.”
Bursts of optimism over a ‘soft-lending’ at the end of debt cycles tend to underestimate the potency and time-lags of monetary tightening.
The greatest threat lies in the nexus of undisclosed leverage and liquidity mismatch in the shadow bankingsector, which has displaced traditional banking and largely avoided the control of regulators.
SHADOW BANKING IS TAKING OVER WORLD FINANCE
Share of total financial assets
Right-hand scale
Shadow banking sector
Banks
Central banks
Public financial institutions
Left-hand scale
Shadow banking sector
These players are not subject to the normal mark-to-market rules forcing them to admit mounting losses. The advance warning signal is muted. Central banks do not know where the landmines lie, or what level of rates will cause the system to buckle.
The giant wild card this time is that serious trouble may also be brewing in Japan’s $12 trillion bond market, normally the quietest haven of global finance. Japan has defied gravity for decades, running nosebleed fiscal deficits for years with no apparent cost or inflationary effect.
But inflation has returned in the aftermath of Covid, pushing the country from a bad but stable equilibrium into an unstable equilibrium. The Bank of Japan is riding a tiger as it tries to manage its exit from extreme quantitative easing and its policy of holding down bond rates.
BANK OF JAPAN’S NEW DEFENSIVE LINE ALREADY BREACHED
Yield on 10-year Japanese sovereign bonds
10-year yen swap
10-year benchmark Japanese bond yield
SOURCE: BLOOMBERG
“The Japanese haven’t had an interest rate rise in three decades and nobody is positioned for it,” Prof Rogoff says. “The public debt is 260pc of GDP and half of that is overnight debt.”
The dam has already begun to break. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) lifted its long-standing cap on 10-year bonds from 0.25pc to 0.5pc last month, seemingly a minor tweak but in reality a bombshell for international capital flows. The BoJ has had to spend over $100bn over the last two weeks defending the next line against the market onslaught. The swaps market is already pricing in another jump to 1pc.
A blow-up in the Japanese bond market would be a black swan event. The country is the world’s largest creditor with $3.6 trillion of external net assets. It owns 8pc of France’s public debt. A sudden repatriation of funds would set off contagion through the international system.
Olivier Blanchard, another ex-chief economist at the IMF, has also warned that Japan’s finances are less stable than they look. He fears that the country could spin into a debt spiral and a funding crisis as it comes out of deflation, leaving the Japanese finance ministry in extreme difficulty.
Prof Rogoff’s central premise is that global real interest rates ‘mean-revert’ over time. The more suddenly it happens, the greater the financial trauma. The current edifice of international borrowing and debt contracts is built on the assumption real rates will remain nailed to the floor.
In September we had a foretaste of what can happen when UK gilt yields spiked higher, setting off a self-reinforcing doom loom in a trillion pound segment of the UK pensions industry.
The Bank of England stemmed the crisis with great skill, and made a profit on the bond transactions. However, the episode set off instant global contagion and alarmed officials at the IMF and the Basle-based Financial Stability Board (FSB).
“If it can happen in the UK, which is very well regulated, it can happen anywhere,” Prof Rogoff says.
The liability driven investments at the heart of this meltdown were legitimate hedging tools, Prof Rogoff argues, given that pension funds benefit from higher rates. The surprise was the ferocity of the global bond sell-off that set the process in motion.
“Liz Truss got the blame but the underlying cause was Jay Powell’s rate rises in the US, which has pushed up rates for everybody,” he says.
The eurozone has its own intractable pathologies, even if it has weathered Vladimir Putin’s energy war remarkably well. But the delayed effects of monetary tightening are only just starting to bite. The ECB’s anti-inflation hawks are back in charge and determined to push rates into ‘restrictive’ territory as well as launching bond sales (quantitative tightening), a process likely to continue until something breaks.
“The glue that has been holding the eurozone together is the world of zero real interest rates,” Prof Rogoff says. “So long they stayed at zero you could use QE as a transfer subsidy from the North to the South, and it didn’t seem to cost anything. The underlying problem was never resolved.”
The ECB’s bond purchases have been soaking up Italian debt issuance since 2015, shielding the country from market forces. This stopped in June. The ECB cushioned the blow for a few months by skewing the roll-over of its existing portfolio from German Bunds to Italian bonds, but this too has reached its limits.
Markets doubt whether a new ‘anti-spread’ tool (TPI) can be activated in any circumstances short of an emergency. To do so earlier would breach the no-bail clause in the EU treaty law and look all too like fiscal dominance, leading to legal challenges. But Italy is at least a ‘known-known’, and the Meloni government has so far been careful not to provoke trouble.
The global shadow banking system is a ‘known-unknown’, with a pervasive mismatch in maturities. Many borrow on the short-term capital markets to lend long or invest in illiquid assets – more or less the story of Northern Rock or Lehman Brothers before the global financial crisis.
Unlike normal banks, they cannot borrow from the emergency lending window of central banks, and they lack a stable base of savers covered by deposit insurance.
Prof Rogoff says private equity groups have borrowed heavily to play property markets, which are in various degrees of distress. Prices in the $21 trillion market for US commercial property have dropped 13pc from their peak. Average US house prices are falling at a faster pace than during the subprime crisis, though they have not yet fallen nearly as far.
“I think the property market still has a long way to fall. Some of those private equity firms are going to go bust,” he says.
The FSB says the ‘non-bank’ shadow sector today accounts for half of the total $487 trillion of financial assets worldwide. It warns that over $50 trillion of this is “susceptible to runs” if liquidity dries up or there is an external shock.
To borrow Warren Buffet’s famous adage, you only discover who is swimming naked when the tide goes out.
END
This is very important: Japan has less than 33 weeks of bond purchases to totally run out of bonds to buy.
(zerohedge)
BOJ Is Less Than A Year Away From Running Out Of Bonds To Buy
TUESDAY, JAN 17, 2023 – 03:46 PM
Back in 2015, the IMF was the first organization to run the math on Japan’s endless debt monetization and warned that according to a “realistic rebalancing scenario”, the the BoJ would need to taper its JGB purchases in 2017 or 2018, “given collateral needs of banks, asset-liability management constraints of insurers, and announced asset allocation targets of major pension funds. “
Needless to say, the BOJ did not taper its QE, which first started in 2001 and, with various spurts and starts, has continued for more than two decades. In fact, as the BOJ bought ever more and more debt, last June outgoing BOJ governor Kuroda crossed a historic rubicon when the BOJ became the owner of more than 50% of all Japanese bonds, effectively destroying the JGB bond market where it was the marginal price setter, leading to such bizarro outcomes as a record four days in a row without a single trade!
Fast forward to today, when it is 2023 and about 5 years after the IMF’s initial deadline, and when Japan is hanging on by the skin of its teeth, especially after Kuroda’s December “YCC tweak” surprise blew a gaping hole in the Japanese central bank’s credibility and it is now clear that yield curve control can not be sustained.
What takes its place and when is the 1 quadrillion yen problem according to Bloomberg’s Garfield Reynolds, who goes on to note that Tokyo is going to go on spreading rates and currency market turmoil until a solution of some sort is found.
Meanwhile, the absolutely horrific and frantic pace of recent JGB purchases — some 12t yen in a mere four days — exceeds any single month of buying to date.
https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-0&features=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&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1613751327263281154&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fmarkets%2Fboj-less-year-away-running-out-bonds-buy&sessionId=6ae006ab4a34a272cf70999f48bf9c1498ba6ed5&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=2b959255e8896%3A1673658205745&width=550px
The central bank’s share of the market likely jumped a full percentage point in January to 53%, and the month is only half over. Hilariously, according to Garfield’s calculations, if the BOJ keeps going like this, then it has some 33 weeks or so left until there are no JGBs left in private hands.
Assuming the government actually increases its borrowings, that would add a few more weeks, but the idea that the BOJ might buy the whole local bond market by the end of 2023 isn’t one policy makers would be especially eager to contemplate.
END
3c CHINA /
CHINA/ECONOMY
Do not buy any figures from China. However they do have a demographic problem as their population falls for the first time in decades.
(zerohedge)
“A Historic Turning Point”: China Reports Blowout Q4 Economic Data As Population Falls For First Time In Decades
MONDAY, JAN 16, 2023 – 10:18 PM
If there was any doubt that China is back – or was back even when it was still largely mostly locked down with various now defunct Covid zero restrictions – all those doubts were magically whisked away moments ago when Beijing’s not-so-random number goalseekatron published the data dump for Q4 which – drumroll – not only beat across the board, but absolutely smashed expectations.
Here is what China’s National BS (which stands for Bureau of Statistics of course), reported moments ago for a quarter when Covid Zero was still all the rage (before China mysteriously called time on the worst economic policy of the past three years):
- Q4 GDP +2.9% y/y; down predictably from the Q3 +3.9% as zero Covid policies hammered growth for most of Q4 (China was mostly locked down during the quarter), but smashing the estimate of +1.6% and not far from the highest forecast (range -1.1% to +3.5% from 28 economists).
- 2022 cumulative GDP +3% y/y; also beating expectations of +2.7%; curiously this was unchanged from the estimate of the first 9 months which was also at +3%
- Dec. industrial production +1.3% y/y; beating expectations of +0.1%, and down from Nov’s +2.2%
- Dec. retail sales -1.8% y/y; smashing expectations of a -9% plunge, and a big improvement from Nov’s -5.9% plunge.
- Jan.-Dec. fixed-asset investment excluding rural households +5.1% y/y; also beating expectations of +5%, and a modest slowdown from the Jan.-Nov. print of +5.3%
- Dec jobless rate 5.5%, down from 5.7% in Nov.
Solid data dump aside, there was continued weakness across property and housing, although as we already know this sector is poised for a huge surge now that China is phasing out its “three red lines” and its bad debt firms are planning up to $24 billion in support for developers.
- Jan.-Dec. property investment -10% y/y vs -9.8% in Jan.- Nov.
- Jan.-Dec. residential property sales -28.3% y/y vs -28.4% in Jan.-Nov.
A snapshot of the data:
On paper, all of the above looks great. On paper, however, it’s of course all fake as Australia’s Bill Birties points out:
It is extraordinary that an economic quarter that saw restrictions across multiple cities for Covid followed by mass nationwide outbreak in December… would see not only as much economic activity as the same period a year earlier, but almost 3% more…
But while the “surprise” beat in China’s GDP (and everything else) was tonight’s big headline, there was another big headline in the big (non-surprise) decline in China’s population. As the NBS reported, China’s total population fell by 850,000 in 2022, to about 1.41 billion at end-2022, a drop for the first time since 1961, the final year of the Great Famine under former leader Mao Zedong.
According to the data, a total of 10.41 million people died, a slight increase from around 10 million recorded in recent years (good thing there were no pandemic at the time). At the same time, some 9.56 million babies were born in 2022, down from 10.62 million a year earlier, the lowest level since at least 1950, despite efforts by the government to encourage families to have more children.
“This is a truly historic turning point, an onset of a long-term and irreversible population decline,” said Wang Feng, an expert on Chinese demographic change at the University of California, Irvine.
While the decline officially began last year, with deaths outstripping births, the FT notes that some demographers argue that the trend likely started before then. Fuxian Yi, a demographer at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, estimated that China’s population started to fall in 2018, but the drop was obscured by “faulty demographic data”.
“China is facing a demographic crisis that far exceeds the imagination of Chinese authorities and the international community,” said Yi, noting that the trend will act as a long-term drag on the country’s property market, a crucial engine of growth.
“Abundant labor has been the fuel that has driven China’s rapid growth for more than four decades,” said Yi, “and now China is flying at high speed without enough fuel.”
Some economists argue that the rise of automation will offset rising labour costs as the number of workers shrinks.
China’s demographic disaster aside, the stellar economic data – at least in the context of consensus expectations – was still quite poor: China’s economy grew at the second slowest pace since the 1970s in 2022 as Covid restrictions hammered activity, though better-than-forecast fourth quarter and December data add to optimism it may be primed for a recovery; it was also well below the governments target last year of around 5.5%, although that’s where 2023 comes in. According to Ho Woei Chen, an economist at United Overseas Bank in Singapore, China’s latest economic data suggest the momentum for recovery will be stronger in 1Q this year with the reopening of the borders and relaxation of the regulatory oversight in some sectors including property. And it’s all uphill from there.
“We are maintaining our forecast for 2023 at 5.2%. Economic recovery is likely to accelerate in 2Q as the population achieves herd immunity, which will pave the way for further normalization in activities and a v-shaped recovery in private consumption”
“On the key risks, we remain cautious on the external outlook and the sluggish real estate market could also take the tailwind out of this recovery.”
Still, even 5.2% might not be enough. According to the head of the National Bureau of Statistics, Kang Yi, China has to more than double the current per capita GDP of about $12,700 in order to achieve its 2035 goal, although now that the population is declining, this target may be easier to achieve even if it means eventually surrendering the superpower status to India which as of this moment is officially the world’s most populous country.
end
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS/UK AFFAIRS//
UK
Interesting: Ukrainian refugees are going home for medical treatment rather than endure long waiting times
(zerohedge
Ukrainian Refugees In Britain Are Going Home For Medical Treatment Rather Than Endure NHS Waiting-Times
SUNDAY, JAN 15, 2023 – 09:55 AM
Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,
Ukrainian refugees in Britain are making return trips to their homeland to receive medical treatment instead of waiting to access the U.K.’s National Health Service (NHS) after a spate of strikes brought the public healthcare system to its knees.
A report by British news outlet inews cited a number of instances in which those who had fled the conflict in Ukraine simply gave up on long wait times to access medical care in Britain, opting instead for the perilous 24-hour journey to the war-torn country to be seen by a medical professional almost immediately.
The left-wing news outlet used the reports to criticize Britain’s governing Conservative party, which has been locked in fierce, long-running negotiations with unions of NHS workers demanding pay rises in line with Britain’s inflation.
inews detailed the account of one refugee, Maiia Habruk, who reportedly fled the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv last year to settle in southeast London. After suffering a severe toothache, she logged her symptoms on an NHS chatroom and was told to expect a call from a medical professional the following day. This never happened, so she went to her local Accident and Emergency (A&E) department, also without success.
“After waiting four hours, the doctor didn’t even look at me, and she also told me to take paracetamol. Again, it didn’t help, and I was still in severe pain,” Ms. Habruk told the news outlet.
She ended up traveling back to Ukraine via Poland where she says she was seen by a doctor immediately.
“I was told it was an urgent issue with my wisdom tooth and that I had to have an extraction immediately.
“I do not in any way want to criticize the NHS. I think it’s amazing that everyone can get help for free,” she added.
The Ukrainian woman told the news outlet she knew of three others residing in London who had opted to return to war-torn Ukraine for medical treatment instead of waiting to use Britain’s public healthcare system.
Another Ukrainian woman living in the Scottish city of Glasgow, whose healthcare system is managed by the devolved left-wing Scottish government, also reportedly traveled home for medical treatment, according to Scottish Liberal Democrat leader Alex Cole-Hamilton, who raised the issue with Scotland’s First Minister earlier this week.
Some members of the public took to social media to question whether it is right that those choosing to make trips back to Ukraine remain entitled to claim asylum in Britain.
“If they are able to and willing also to return to Ukraine then they weren’t a ‘refugee,’” wrote one social media user, while another said:
“If the refugee can go home to see their doctor, then why are they in the U.K.? If it’s safe to see your doctor, it can’t be unsafe to live there too.”
A third added:
“Odd definition of refugee if they’re going back to their native country for appointments. Very odd indeed!”
The U.K.’s Conservative government announced in March last year that Ukrainians arriving in England are eligible for free-of-charge access to NHS healthcare, including GP and nurse consultations, hospital services, and urgent care centers.
However, nurses and ambulance staff in England have been on strike over the winter as they attempt to force the government’s hand to agree to pay hikes. The strikes have seen millions of Brits waiting even longer for medical appointments and ambulance response times being the worst on record.
Two more 12-hour nurse strikes have been organized for next week, while ambulance staff will walk out again on Jan. 23 if no suitable compromise over pay has been agreed upon.
end
UK/ECONOMY/REAL ESTATE SECTOR
UK’s property sector in a deep freeze. It began shortly after Truss’ mini buget sparked turmoil
(zerohedge)
Dealmaking Freeze Hits London Offices After Truss’ ‘Mini-Budget’ Sparked Turmoil
TUESDAY, JAN 17, 2023 – 04:15 AM
Last autumn, former Prime Minister Liz Truss’ disastrous mini-budget sparked financial turmoil across UK markets. The Bank of England was forced to intervene with a massive bond-buying scheme to halt pension fund deleveraging. One market that was exceptionally roiled by the chaos was the UK commercial property market.
Truss’s then-chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, caused financial turbulence and fears of a 2008-style financial crisis by unveiling the mini-budget, also known as “The Growth Plan,” which was designed to boost economic growth through tax cuts that were funded by fiscal stimulus. This caused dysfunction in the UK gilt market and led to pensions unloading everything from stocks, bonds, collateralized-loan obligations, and even office buildings. That quickly cooled investments in London office buildings in the fourth quarter.
Real estate information provider CoStar Group Inc. revealed £400 million ($488 million) of offices in the UK were bought and sold in the fourth quarter, an 88% plunge from the prior quarter.
Bloomberg noted, “the dealmaking freeze — worse than the decline during the financial crisis or Covid-19 lockdowns — came as former Prime Minister Liz Truss’s proposals for unfunded tax cuts spooked markets.”
CoStar’s data shows the two-decade quarterly average for offices bought and sold is around £3.5 billion ($4.2 billion). So the last quarter’s figure reflects the turmoil sparked by Truss. Also, buyers are on the sidelines as they wait for price adjustments due to higher borrowing costs and the rising risk of recession.
At the time of the turmoil last fall, pensions were unloading positions in the UK’s largest property funds, causing these funds to gate redemptions to avoid asset “firesales.”
And the turmoil is unlikely to be over. US fund manager BlackRock recently suspended redemption requests from investors in its £3.5 billion ($4.2 billion) UK property fund.
The net asset value of the BlackRock UK Property Fund has been on a rollercoaster ride in the last few quarters and roundtripped Covid lows.
It seems like a combination of Truss’ disastrous mini-budget sparking financial chaos late last year and increasing economic uncertainty have led to freezing the UK office property market
end
EUROPE/WEATHER
French and German power prices soar as cold weather sweeps Europe
(zerohedge)
French And German Power Prices Soar As Cold Sweeps Europe
TUESDAY, JAN 17, 2023 – 07:13 AM
Update (0713ET):
After a mild start to the year, cold weather sweeping across western Germany, France, and the UK led to a surge in electricity prices on Tuesday.
French day-ahead power prices jumped to 135 euros a megawatt-hour, a 42% increase versus the rolling two-week average. The cause of the price spike is a surge in heating demand and delays in restarting nuclear plants.
Day-ahead prices in Germany, Europe’s largest economy, increased as much as 16% Tuesday.
“Cold is expected to grip areas from the mid-continent to west, including in western Germany, France and the UK where average departures from normal range anywhere between 2-6 degrees Celsius below normal,” Matthew Dross, a meteorologist at Maxar Technologies, told Bloomberg.
Dross said the cold spell “will increase heating demand for those regions to above normal levels.”
Despite colder weather and increasing heating demand, Dutch front-month natural gas futures, Europe’s benchmark, slid as much as 7.3% after rising 4.6%. Prices have clawed back some losses after tagging 16-month lows.
Mild temperatures are expected to return next week, denting demand once more. Morgan Stanley recently wrote that Europe’s NatGas consumption in the year to October could be as low as 16% below the five-year average.
“Even if it makes gas-fired power plants increasingly competitive with coal-fired power plants, it does not lead to an increase in gas demand for power generation because” other cheaper power generation sources will be used first, Engie SA’s EnergyScan wrote in a note.
* * *
Record warmth spread across Europe in the first half of January. Temperatures in the energy-stricken continent felt more like spring as several metropolitan areas recorded the warmest temperatures on record. Now a pattern shift is underway as parts of northwest Europe brace for a cold snap starting Monday.
The latest runs for global weather models, including GFS Operational and ECMWF Operational, show what appears to be a downward shift in temperatures for northwest Europe. Average temps are expected to average in the low 30s degrees Fahrenheit this week, below 5,10, and 30-year averages.
GFS and ECMWF models show temperatures in London could decline to the low 30s by tomorrow — well below average for this time of year.
A similar cold spell in Paris is slated for early this week.
As well as colder temperatures in Berlin.
Freezing temperatures across northwest Europe for the second half of the month will push up heating demand.
Mild temperatures curbed heating demand and allowed for injections into natural gas storage at a time when supplies should be drawing. But that could change with the return of winter.
The return of freezing conditions did very little to boost EU nature gas prices, which fell to the lowest level since September 2021 as the supply outlook remained robust.
“There currently appears to be no end to the losses on the European gas market,” analysts at trading firm Energi Danmark A/S wrote in a note. They added:
“The panic-like situation from last year has been replaced by confidence that Europe will get through this winter without any supply issues.”
Still, some are warning winter isn’t over.
END
DAVOS/
Why an absence of A-listers at Davos is not just deep trouble for the World Economic Forum, but for globalization too | Business News | Sky News
| Robert Hryniak | 10:43 AM (2 minutes ago) |  | |
| to | |||
As economies falter being a DAVOS young leader is not astute, nor is attendance for what is failed MARXIST philosophy. Klaus was never a original thinker in his idealism, rather he has attempted to follow Marx. And how did that turn out? Only supposedly 400 attendees showed out of the 2700 who supposedly were coming. And it is a question as to who will pay the cost of 5000 Swiss military personnel to guard this show?
Reality is that government debt is at runaway proportions and unsustainable. Pensions lack solvency and funding as does social welfare. When yesterday in Zerohedge there were two stories of so called Ukrainian refugees living in England going back to the Ukraine for health care not availed in the UK; one must ask who is the refugee, the Ukrainians or the Brits, who do not have an another option for healthcare? Just like globalism is dead which shakes globalists to the core because their whole model is collapsing in real time. And that means corporate ills. The same problem exists for hegemony controlled by singular nations like America using the USD as a control and a hammer backed by a military might, that diminishes in effect and supremacy. And this actually defies China’s Yuan hegemony ambitions to replace the USD because the forces released favor decentralized currencies that garner value by actual Trade Output! And where this Output defines the actual value in core value currency swaps to settle. This is actually at the heart of the new BRIC currency model is based on a decentralized valuation of currencies based on floor values of output and exchange. Realizing this is why the rush to Eurasia while leaving the West to choke on lessened exchange and output lowering the value of Western currencies. The reality is trade based on production and desired goods is the driver of value, minus dictated exchange. It is only time before more countries want gold or alternative currencies to the USD for oil as a result. This event will lower not just the USD but all those currencies defend in relation to it.
Is this not why progressive nations are using national currencies for trade settlement? Thus in effective causing decentralization of trade value taking control and wealth away from centralized currency hegemony? Ukraine will be America’s Waterloo, if it is not careful. And not just for hegemony but for the USD, if it does not walk away soon. It can ill afford another Afghanistan fiasco that reeks of lost money and prestige and authority.
It is only a matter of time before people awaken to the realization that growing government debt is unsustainable. And then what? Who and what nation or even company will question the value of debt or currency? Is this perhaps why we see oil swapped for gold to bolster currencies? Reality is that trade output defines the value of a nation and not debt creation. Think about this. Your work and labor that creates value is what defines your ability to spend and live. It really is that simple. Governments are no different as gravity of weight of outstanding debt always brings crashing reality to light. Recently, I traveled to the US, as the bills arrive I noticed the value of the CDN is is $.61 to the USD meaning each USD is $1.39 in CDN. Hardly a expression of real value, given that not long ago it was closer to par. This type of alignment is happening in real time around the world, which is why assets like gold are rising, and why cash is becoming more valued as less is availed through actual liquidity that is accessible.
As the world changes, the patterns of trade and wealth will change in concert ignoring anyone’s ability to stave off reality. And thus become the reality and Canvas of life before us. Will you be ready?
end
EUROPE VS RUSSIA
Laughter with tears
| Robert Hryniak | 1:19 PM (2 minutes ago) | | |
| to | |||
the winner of the Maximum Stupidity prize at Davos is – who else – Ursuela von der Lugen, who speak of Sanction’s success on hurting Russia that will last a decade. Perhaps she really meant to say the impact will last a decade on Europe.
Compare it to reality to what Putin recently said:
“According to the Ministry of Economic Development, the gross domestic product of Russia in January – November 2022 decreased, but only by 2.1%, while some of experts in the country, not talking about foreign experts, predicted a drop of 10, 15 or even 20%. In general, a decline of 2.5% is expected for the year, I emphasize – this is for the year as a whole, while economic growth was recorded in the third and fourth quarters, compared with a sharp drop in the second quarter. Our task is to support and consolidate this positive trend.
Many of the most important industries, such as construction, agriculture, defense industry not only did not reduce over the past year, but despite unprecedented external pressure they increased volumes and created new jobs. This stabilized the labor market, unemployment reached the lowest level in recent history”.
Can this not be more stark? Sanctions are a failure on Russia and instead have served as a British Man of War broadside ( ship) to Western economies.
What is not said by either party is that this Russian feat has been accomplished without normal trade with the West. Instead look at the sheer contraction and shut downs of factories across Europe devastating all stakeholders from owners to employees to suppliers etc.
Yes, Europe will feel the impact for a long time and this next year the impact will be greater than it is now. One might imagine there is NO cheap Russian gas coming any time soon and nor is there adequate alternative supply to face next winter. And what supply comes forth renders European industry in trouble. All manufacturing in Europe is in difficulty with rising energy costs and weak market demand.
And you wonder why Capital is leaving Europe?
END
UK/UKRAINE
UK sending heavy tanks and this will intensify the conflict and endure more casualties according to the Kremlin
(zerohedge)
UK Sending Heavy Tanks Will Only “Intensify” Conflict With “More Casualties”: Kremlin
SUNDAY, JAN 15, 2023 – 12:00 PM
The Ukrainian government has recently issued a call for its Western backers to provide heavy tanks so in can beat back Russian forces, after countries like Poland and other Eastern European governments have already provided an estimated 300 modernized Soviet tanks since last February.
But Kiev is urging for hundreds more Western-manufactured tanks to be sent, especially the US M1 Abrams. But so far Washington has only pledged light infantry carriers – the Bradley Fighting Vehicle.
As we detailed previously, it’s now the UK and Poland leading the charge among allies to send tanks, given London lately announced it will send the the Challenger 2, widely considered a highly capable main battle tank. But a new warning from Moscow has said the decision will only intensify the conflict, saying that instead of bringing any significant Ukrainian edge on the battlefield, more civilians will be harmed in the fighting.Getty Images
“Bringing tanks to the conflict zone, far from drawing the hostilities to a close, will only serve to intensify combat operations, generating more casualties, including among the civilian population,” a weekend statement by the Russian embassy in London said.
Undeterred by Russia’s warnings, Ukrainian President Zelensky thanked the UK for the takes, suggesting that Britain has made it easier for other allies to send heavy tanks. He said this “will not only strengthen us on the battle field, but also send the right signal to other partners“.
Zelensky and his top officials have also repeatedly requested air power in order to “close the skies” given clearly Russia has a significant aerial tactical advantage, though the US is now training Ukrainian personnel on how to operate Patriot anti-air defense missiles.
“To win this war, we need more military equipment, heavy equipment,” a statement from Zelensky’s office also urged. Poland days ago pledged German-made Leopard tanks.
As for air power, UK tabloid papers have reported that Britain will also supply a handful of Apache attack helicopters, but this prompted an immediate denial of the claims by the British government.
The tanks package is expected to be delivered to the Ukrainians “in the coming weeks” according to a UK statement, and it will be a squadron, or 14 ‘Challenger 2’ tanks, including over two dozen AS-90 artillery guns.
END
UK//VACCINES/EXCESS DEATHS:
Just take a look at what was the BBC’s most viewed program of 2023: excess death/vaccine harm illustrated by Dr Aseem Nalhotra:
(Nick Rendell/DailySceptic.org)
Will Aseem Malhotra’s Appearance Be The BBC’s Most Viewed Program Of 2023?
MONDAY, JAN 16, 2023 – 04:00 AM
Authored by Nick Rendell via DailySceptic.org,
What attracted the biggest TV audiences of 2022? Top of the list was the Queen’s funeral, with 25 million viewers. Then came England’s World Cup quarter final exit with 21.3 million. Some 17.4 million watched the Women’s European Cup victory. We then drop down into the top TV shows. The final of I’m Celebrity Get Me Out Of Here had 11.9 million glued to their TV sets. 10.5 million watched the final of Strictly and 9.1 million tuned in to Eurovision.
It’s unlikely that there’ll be a big royal funeral or wedding in 2023. There’s a Rugby World Cup but not a football one. There are no Olympic Games. So, where can the TV Networks find their big hits for the coming year?
Well, courtesy of Elon Musk’s takeover of Twitter, Dr. Aseem Malhotra may just have provided 2023’s biggest TV moment.
A few minutes into the conversation, he began discussing what people should do to reduce the risk of heart disease. He said, “One of the reasons this is coming to the news just now, obviously there has been a big concern about excess deaths… since the pandemic there has been 30,000 excess deaths specifically due to coronary heart disease, that’s my area of expertise… What my own research has found and this is something that is probably a likely contributing factor, is that the COVID mRNA vaccines do carry cardiovascular risk.”
He added that a likely cause of his own father’s death after he had a cardiac arrest was the two doses of the Pfizer vaccine he received six months earlier.
Burak asked him, “That’s been proven medically, has it?”
He responded claiming there was “lots of data” to support his claim. He added, “The vaccine has certainly helped people who are high risk, but now we should be reassured that [the] Omicron circulating is really no worse than the flu. This is really time to pause the vaccine rollout.”
During the interview, he said that he called for the vaccine rollout to be suspended pending an inquiry because of the “uncertainty” behind excess deaths.
the video of Dr Malhotra:
https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/will-aseem-malhotras-appearance-be-bbcs-most-viewed-program-2023
As I write this, the seven minute clip of him being interviewed on a BBC news show on January 14th passed 14.8 million views [ZH: 17.8 million now]. Now, wouldn’t you think that merited some form of acknowledgement from the BBC? If you were the BBC’s Head of Programmes wouldn’t you think: “Wow, we’ve had 14.8 million views, there’s a programme in this?”
It seems incredible that the BBC and, by association, the Government, think they can just bury the story. As if, so long as it isn’t mentioned, the other 50-odd million people in the country won’t also think, “Hmm, there’s something not quite right about these vaccines”. Surely radio silence only adds to the unease. Since the creation of the ‘Trusted News Initiative’, I’ve lost all trust in the BBC. Its obsessive focus on Net Zero and intersectionality sounds suspiciously like a USSR era Pravda piece about tractor production in Murmansk.
I suspect the reason the Malhotra clip has cut through so far and fast is because it perfectly resonates with people’s ‘lived experience’; everyone knows someone whom they suspect has been harmed by the vaccines.
My own sister-in-law dropped dead of SADS (Sudden Adult Death Syndrome) back in August 2022. A fit, size 10, keen cyclist, found dead in her garden one morning. She had been just about to set off on a bike ride. The autopsy could find no specific cause, noted some small clotting in the heart, but nothing that the pathologist seemed to think should have killed her.
She’d had three doses of the vaccine. I’ve no idea whether the vaccines were the cause or contributory to her death, but I did feel that if a more open debate about the safety (or otherwise) of the vaccines had been allowed, at least the pathologist might have been open to considering it, even if only to dismiss it for specific reasons.
But, of course, whether the vaccines were responsible or not, there was absolutely no reason for her to have been vaccinated in the first place. Like everyone else who is not vulnerable, she was never at any risk from Covid. She’d had Covid in 2020: a day in bed, slight headache, backache. It held no fears for her, but she wanted to go on holiday.
It wasn’t only her family that were taken aback by my sister-in-law’s death. In the small Cumbrian town in which she lived, a bloke keeled over in the street with a heart attack. In a nearby village someone else died suddenly, all within a week or so. To everyone it seemed odd – it was the talk of the town. And though the talk was always in hushed voices, word of mouth is a powerful medium.
A friend told her neighbour, a hospital nurse, about my sister-in-law’s death. “Oh,” she replied, “we call it a Covax death,” as if they happen all the time. Another friend, on hearing the tale told me of her nephew, 27 years-old, had a stroke a couple of weeks after his second vaccine. Everyone has a story.
The start of the 2021 football season kicked off a similar round of whispers. Trevor Sinclair, the football pundit, got in trouble for even daring to raise the issue on air. Virtually every game seemed to have either a medical emergency on the pitch or one in the crowd, sometimes more than one. I was at a Mansfield Town game many years ago when they were having an FA cup run. In a game against West Ham, someone in the crowd had a heart attack. It was quite a thing, but in all the hundreds of games I’ve ever watched, that’s the only time I remember a game stopping for such an incident. Then suddenly last year it was happening every week. Related to the vaccines? I don’t know, but I think someone should be looking into it, not gaslighting the millions watching into believing this was normal.
Of course, people are going to speculate. The BBC do themselves no favours by pretending it isn’t a real concern.
But, what’s becoming interesting now are the conspiracy theories. Cock-up or strategy? Could a BBC news producer or editor really be so detached from the biggest story of the past two years to not know that Dr. Aseem Malhotra is a vaccine sceptic? The shock on the face of the interviewer is perhaps more understandable if all she does is read autocues, but for someone who is responsible for a BBC news programme not to be aware is frankly incredible, in the true sense of the word. If it’s ‘incredible’, so the conspiracists argue, then it must have been planned. Does this signify a change in the mood music? The producer should be grateful that the BBC’s Trusted News Initiative’ has yet to fully embrace Pravda’s modus operandi, or else they’d have been taken outside and shot. A fate that might yet, metaphorically, befall both the BBC producer and Dr. Malhotra, courtesy of the GMC.
The Chinese Communist Party didn’t abandon ‘Zero Covid’ because of a few protests, but because it wasn’t working. Infections were taking off regardless of strict lockdown measures. It’s the same with vaccine scepticism. Doubts about vaccination will only continue to grow while deaths exceed normal levels. Dr. Malhotra’s piece may yet push us past the tipping point where these concerns have to be addressed.
My personal view is that vaccines played an important part in breaking us out of the unsustainable lockdown loop. I don’t think vaccines made much difference to lives lost – the emergence of Omicron and prior natural immunity did that – but vaccination gave the elderly the confidence to emerge from behind their locked doors. We’d have been as well off giving everyone a saline shot rather than blowing billions on vaccines. No, the real crime lay in extending vaccines to those who didn’t need them.
If we’d stuck with Plan A, articulated by both Kate Bingham and Matt Hancock back in late 2020, and only offered vaccines to the elderly and vulnerable, confidence in all vaccines wouldn’t now be at all-time low.
It’s worth remembering that boosters haven’t been offered to the non-vulnerable under-50s for about 18 months [ZH: in the UK], and since not even the manufacturers claim any ongoing efficacy for vaccines after about six months, then the only possible reason for not offering additional vaccine boosters to the under-50s is because it’s thought they’ll do more harm than good.
So, does the Dr. Malhotra appearance herald a change in tack by the BBC? Are the vaccines about to be thrown under a bus? I doubt it, but I bet there are a few TV production companies lining up a debate somewhere and just looking for a TV broadcaster to commission it. You never know, maybe Twitter could air it live, there’s a record TV audience just waiting to watch it. I’m sure such a debate could ‘educate, entertain and inform’. Something the BBC was once quite good at.
END
UK//VACCINES/EXCESS DEATHS:
(Twitter/BBC)
Excess deaths in 2022 among worst in 50 years
- Published5 days ago
IMAGE SOURCE,GETTY IMAGES
By Robert Cuffe & Rachel Schraer
BBC News
More than 650,000 deaths were registered in the UK in 2022 – 9% more than 2019.
This represents one of the largest excess death levels outside the pandemic in 50 years.
Though far below peak pandemic levels, it has prompted questions about why more people are still dying than normal.
Data indicates pandemic effects on health and NHS pressures are among the leading explanations.
Is it Covid?
Covid is still killing people, but is involved in fewer deaths now than at the start of the pandemic. Roughly 38,000 deaths involved Covid in 2022 compared with more than 95,000 in 2020.
We are still seeing more deaths overall than would be expected based on recent history. The difference in 2022 – compared with 2020 and 2021 – is that Covid deaths were one of several factors, rather than the main explanation for this excess.
So what else might be going on?
The crisis in healthcare
A number of doctors are blaming the wider crisis in the NHS.
At the start of 2022, death rates were looking like they’d returned to pre-pandemic levels. It wasn’t until June that excess deaths really started to rise – just as the number of people waiting for hours on trolleys in English hospitals hit levels normally seen in winter.
On 1 January 2023, the president of the Royal College of Emergency Medicine suggested the crisis in urgent care could be causing “300-500 deaths a week”.
It is not a figure recognised by NHS England, but it’s roughly what you get if you multiply the number of people waiting long periods in A&E with the extra risk of dying estimated to come with those long waits (of between five and 12 hours).
It is possible to debate the precise numbers, but it’s not controversial to say that your chances are worse if you wait longer for treatment, be that waiting for an ambulance to get to you, being stuck in an ambulance outside a hospital or in A&E.
And we are seeing record waits in each of those areas.
In November, for example, it took 48 minutes on average for an ambulance in England to respond to a suspected heart attack or stroke, compared to a target of 18 minutes.
- England: Record number of ambulances queue outside A&E
- Northern Ireland: Inquiry into deaths after ambulance waits
- Scotland: Why is the NHS under so much pressure?
- Wales: NHS on a knife-edge, warns health leader
Lasting effect of pandemic
Some of the excess may be people whose deaths were hastened by the after-effects of a Covid infection.
A number of studies have found people are more likely to have heart problems and strokes in the weeks and months after catching Covid, and some of these may not end up being linked to the virus when the death is registered.
As well as the impact on the heart of the virus itself, some of this may be contributed to by the fact many people didn’t come in for screenings and non-urgent treatment during the peak of the pandemic, storing up trouble for the future.
We can see that the number of people starting treatment for blood pressure or with statins – which can help prevent future heart attacks – plunged during the pandemic and, a year later still hadn’t recovered.
The largest jump in excess deaths was seen in men aged 50-64, most commonly caused by heart problems.
No evidence of vaccine effect
The rise in cardiac problems has been pointed to by some online as evidence that Covid vaccines are driving the rise in deaths, but this conclusion is not supported by the data.
One type of Covid vaccine has been linked to a small rise in cases of heart inflammation and scarring (pericarditis and myocarditis). But this particular vaccine side-effect was mainly seen in boys and young men, while the excess deaths are highest in older men – aged 50 or more.
And these cases are too rare – and mostly not fatal – to account for the excess in deaths.
Finally, figures up to June 2022 looking at deaths from all causes show unvaccinated people were more likely to die than vaccinated people.
While this data on its own can’t tell us it’s the vaccine protecting people from dying – there are too many complicating factors – if vaccines were driving excess deaths we would expect this to be the other way around.
END
5.UKRAINE RUSSIA//MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
RUSSIA/UKRAINE
Putin hails the positive momentum in Ukraine as well as discussing that its economy is quite stable despite the war
(zerohedge)
Putin Hails “Positive” Momentum In Ukraine, “Stable” Economy In Surprisingly Upbeat Remarks
SUNDAY, JAN 15, 2023 – 05:00 PM
Fresh off the Russian armed forces declaring victory in the strategic Donetsk town of Soledar days ago, Russian President Vladimir Putin surprised officials in the West by touting the ‘positive dynamic’ of the Ukraine operation overall, despite the prior months of setbacks and a slower-going operation than Moscow expected.
He said in fresh weekend comments to Rossiya 1 state television when asked about the successful Soledar operation that “The dynamic is positive.” He described that “Everything is developing within the framework of the plan of the Ministry of Defense and the General Staff.” Putin followed with, “And I hope that our fighters will please us even more with the results of their combat.”Sputnik via Reuters
He also made comments on the state of the economy while confirming that Russia will turn for trade to Asian powers, China and India in particular.
“The situation in the economy is stable,” Putin said. “Much better than not only what our opponents predicted but also what we forecast.” For this he cited low unemployment, saying: “Unemployment is at a historic low. Inflation is lower than expected and has, importantly, a downward trend.”
Despite his county finding itself more isolated than ever before in its modern history, and despite unprecedented Western-led sanctions, Putin showed no signs of backing down from objectives previously set in Ukraine, as Reuters summarizes of the new remarks…
“Putin now casts the war in Ukraine as an existential battle with an aggressive and arrogant West, and has said that Russia will use all available means to protect itself and its people against any aggressor.”
Further the report characterized the Western stance in the following: “The United States and its allies have condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as an imperial land grab, while Ukraine has vowed to fight until the last Russian soldier is ejected from its territory.”
Meanwhile, as we previewed recently, there are reasons to believe Russia is readying an escalation in response to the West sending tanks and deepening its military involvement in support of Ukraine forces. Aftermath of missile strike on residential complex in the central city of Dnipro, via BBC.
But for now, the defense ministry is continuing its strategy of pummeling Ukraine’s energy grid and civilian and military infrastructure through major air strikes. Attacks on Sunday and Saturday marked about the 12th large wave to come in recent months. Air alert sirens have been sounding across the country on Sunday.
Russia’s army described that it targeted “the military command and related energy facilities,” and said that “all targets were reached.”
Ukraine’s national energy operator Ukrenergo said it’s again working to quickly restore power in impacted places but acknowledged this latest attack has “increased the energy deficit.”
“The period of outages may increase,” it acknowledged, already after the national grid having been severely degraded for months, and as emergency blackouts continue for most of the country, with more severely impacted areas with permanent blackouts.
The weekend airstrikes may have included high civilian casualties, compared to prior waves, given the Ukrainian government says a large residential tower was directly hit in the central Ukrainian city of Dnipro.
The New York Times details of the Saturday afternoon strike at a moment a rescue operation is still underway, “Rescuers on Sunday continued to comb the rubble of a nine-story apartment building that was cut in half by a Russian strike, as the death toll from the attack in the central Ukrainian city of Dnipro a day earlier climbed to 30,” and noted: “It was one of the largest losses of civilian lives far from the front line since the beginning of the war.”
“By Sunday evening, 30 people had been confirmed dead, according to Ukraine’s State Emergency Service,” the Times continued. “At least 75 people were injured, and more than 30 people were still believed to be missing, local officials said.”
end
UKRAINE/GERMANY
Criticisms mount over Germany’s role in supporting the war in Ukraine
(zerohedge)
German Defense Minister Resigns As Criticism Over Ukraine Mounts
MONDAY, JAN 16, 2023 – 09:30 AM
Germany’s Defense Minister Christine Lambrechthas stepped down on Monday after what’s widely reported as a series of blunders and PR disasters, and amid accusations she’s been too slow and inept in providing Ukraine defense aid.
A member of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD), she’s been a headache for the Scholz government, and alongside rising criticism over the handling of Ukraine, she’s been accused of bungling Germany’s own defense readiness. German Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht resigned Monday, via DPA
Southwest promises refunds over snow chaos
Lambrecht made reference to some recent embarrassing PR moments in her resignation letter, which said in part: “Months of media focus on me doesn’t allow for fact-based reporting and discussion about soldiers, the army and security policy in the interest of German citizens.”
“The valuable work of the soldiers and many motivated people in the defense area needs to be in the foreground,” the letter added.
Criticism grew most fierce over the last two weeks over an awkward New Year’s Eve message and video her office published, as Deutsche Welle (DW) describes:
The move comes after German media outlets reported on Friday that the defense chief intended to step down after a much-criticized New Year’s Eve message she posted on social media.
In her message, Lambrecht mentioned the war in Ukraine with the sound of fireworks in the background. Members of the opposition Christian Democratic Union (CDU) called out the message as tone-deaf and urged her to resign.
According to the same publication, “Her gaffes included taking her adult son on an official trip to a unit in northern Germany in a German Armed Forces helicopter, only to continue with him on vacation in Sylt.” Talk of her imminent resignation began on Sunday.
The New Year video that set off the most recent widespread criticism:
Perhaps more importantly she’s been seen as emblematic of Berlin’s hesitancy to step up defense aid to Ukraine, amid pressure from other NATO allies. For example, she once came under fire for saying that 5,000 military helmets to Ukraine was “a very clear signal that we stand by your side.”
Currently, the Scholz government is coming under more and more pressure as other European countries like the UK and Poland begin sending heavy tanks to the Ukraine conflict. Already, Berlin agreed to send 40 Marder armored personnel carriers, as well as a Patriot air-defense missile battery to Ukrainian forces.
end
A must read
Both Robert’s comments and Mike Whitney’s commentary:
Is Biden being Blackmailed to Send US Combat Troops to Ukraine?, by Mike Whitney – The Unz Review
| Robert Hryniak | 8:56 AM (1 hour ago) |  | |
| to | |||
So if we do the math carefully what this says apart from the fact the crane is losing badly to Russia. The reality is it at least 11 million Ukrainians have left the Ukraine whether they’ve gone to Europe or to Russia or elsewhere they’ve left. So if you do the math starting at 44 million before this all started. You realize that the population is down to at least 30 million according to this writing. The reality is somewhat less. Not withstanding a fact that the neocons want a new army to fight Russia. It is meaningless on the battlefield, not enough Ukies exist. And another 30-50,000 will die during the next 6 weeks.
Why do I say meaningless? It is quite simple if you do the math of what it takes to support an army you need the industrial capacity in line with a scale and scope of the fight at hand. There is no way that the west is prepared or has a capacity to fight a one on one confrontation with Russia. If it had the capacity then America would not have to go to South Korea or Pakistan to buy artillery shells to send the Ukraine, because no NATO supply exists.it is gone. This is a fact, not a fiction.
As for sending in the 90,000 troops in Romania or the 12,000 in the Baltics or the quarter million conscripts that are being trained in Poland or whatever number of British troops it is all meaningless. Why because in addition to the forces originally established and presented in the confrontation Russia has called up a reservist group of 300,000. In addition to that another 80,000 have volunteered who have combat experience that means the Russia has fielded a force of at least 450,000 to 500,000 troops coming soon to the Battlefield. And all this comes with the artillery and missile support and air power of a modern day peer who contrary to the daily doses of balderdash never runs out of weapons or Artillery shells or missiles.
In addition the Wagner forces and whatever number of troops have come from Chechnya certainly raise this number by likely another 50 to 60,000 troops.
Armchair warriors in Washington who gladly seek to see others die on battlefields have no idea of what they’re getting themselves into. If these for the NATO forces go in as a coalition of the willing, at least 50% of them will be dead in the first two weeks. Russia will takes the gloves off. So what comes then does Washington escalate ? Escalate with what? The answer is simply there is that at that point no choice but to go nuclear. Whether we like it or not we are approaching a Cuban missile crisis of one form or another that is probably more terrible than what was faced before. If and when one missile is launched at Moscow, do not expect the Russians to roll over and play dead. They will respond before such a missile enters Russian air space with a response that is greater.
These are very dangerous times that we are entering into. The scope of the escalation is quite worrisome because the greater the scope the more likely the impact on the stability of US hegemony midst all the changes that are occurring with Trade going on throughout Eurasia and in the global south which excludes the west. No one will win in a nuclear exchange.
We can only hope that intelligence prevails over silly foolish weak minds who seek destruction. Otherwise, what we will see is what the world never wanted to see, a true confrontation with Russia that will leave many millions dead, if not more. And whatever scale of actual problems exist will truly grow beyond the ability of economic stability, especially in the West.
Mike Whitney…
https://www.unz.com/mwhitney/is-biden-being-blackmailed-to-send-us-combat-troops-to-ukraine/
end
Η Ρωσία έπληξε το Κίεβο με άγνωστο μέχρι τώρα όπλο: Φλέγονται oι μεγαλύτεροι θερμοηλεκτρικοί σταθμοί – Τρία κύματα επιθέσεων με 80 πυραύλους – WarNews247
Robert H to us
Russia uses an unknown weapon (thermal?) in Kiev:
| 9:57 AM (2 hours ago) | |
On the battlefield, we are starting to see slime of newer technology being deployed selectively. In Soledar survivors speak of Russian ability to see them hidden and appear from behind like ghosts. Since Russia possesses certain alien like technology well canvassed for longer range destruction, one might assume they have the same for shorter range use.
Ukraine will be pounded into submission no matter the amount of Western weapons. And settlement will be on Russian terms as the time of talk is long over. Russia does not believe there is anyone to talk to. Revelations by Merkel and Macron of how they conned Russia with the Minsk accords to buy time to train Ukrainians to fight Russia as a proxy sealed the Russian view there is no one to talk to.
Time to think about a exit strategy from this fiasco. Even Ukrainian soldiers have figured this out and that they have been conned. So will the European public. It is why the crowd at Davos is so worried about public wrath. They should be and are which is why their meeting required 5000 Swiss soldiers for protection.
We live in crazy times bound to become more crazy in days ahead.
end
Revealed: The blitzkrieg operation by Russian Paratroopers that led to a massacre of Ukrainians in Soledar – How they took the city in one night – WarNews247
| Robert Hryniak | Sat, Jan 14, 6:36 PM (17 hours ago) | | |
| to | |||
Human nature is ignored at one’s own peril.
In Europe, Ukrainians are quickly becoming the new “ROMA” to be abused, much to their chagrin and surprise. As Europeans come to blame them for the conflict and fallout for Europe because of sanctions. This is especially so in Eastern Europe. A time will come when these Ukrainians will want to return home. It is only a matter of time. Just like various drafts going on in Europe is to put youth in uniform because that way government stays in power. As social programs are not affordable; and pensions fall into default. No one has thought about paying debt back which always has a day of reckoning. Does anyone question the solvency of European pension funds? Why anyone thinks a war with Russia combined with a digital currency to replace money will work is puzzling? Sure digital passports and like are nothing more than control in the hopes to control civil unrest. It is as hopeless as the current ability to supply adequate weapons to Ukraine. The West does not possess a War economy or the industrial capacity to support a broad confrontation. Nor does war with Russia come without a price. Russia uses cash from operational output while the West borrows money it cannot ever repay. How brilliant is this? War costs, as history teaches and many a nation destroyed itself not learning the lesson of cost in war.
In the same vein, the head of Wagner found himself needing to explain himself and his ego in St. Petersburg today to Putin who has taken him to task, for his brazen claims of success when it was the Russian Army prevailed. In this article, you will read how the Russian army really was the catalyst to break Soledar. No doubt the Wagners played a important role but General Armageddon planed this out. A astute thinker might want to note that this is harbinger of what is coming shortly to Ukraine and beyond.
On the 17th American AWAC’s will be based in Romania to monitor Russian activities. It is an escalation that will have a Russian response. Sadly, things will worsen on all levels and affect everyone, just like sanction have impacted the global economy. Making people change their culture for political dictates does not work. Watch it play out.
end
We do not know if it was a Russian missile or an errant anti Ukraine missile
(zerohedge)
Death Toll In Dnipro Apartment Strike Rises To 44; Zelensky Aide Resigns For Saying It Was ‘Errant’ Anti-Air Missile
TUESDAY, JAN 17, 2023 – 09:05 AM
The death toll from the Dnipro apartment strike, which happened Saturday afternoon as the latest weekend Russian aerial attacks against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure unfolded, has risen to at least 44 killed, including four children. An additional 79 people were injured, with reports that many residents are still missing and unaccounted for.
The city’s mayor, Borys Filatov, issued the update on Tuesday after two days of rescue workers frantically trying to pull people from the rubble. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky blamed Moscow for the attack which he called a “war crime”, vowing justice for the large number of civilian casualties.
The Dnipro strike now ranks among the single deadliest attacks of the entire war. “The rescue operation, the demolition of the rubble, will not end until the bodies of all the dead are found,” deputy head of the presidency Kyrylo Tymoshenko said.
But on Monday the Kremlin vehemently denied that it targeted and struck a civilian residential building in Dnipro, instead pointing to the likelihood of a Ukrainian anti-air missile falling on the building:
“The Russian armed forces do not strike residential buildings or social infrastructure, they strike military targets,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters, before referring to the “conclusion of some representatives of the Ukrainian side” that the strike could have been caused by air defense.
Kiev responded by emphasizing the strike was “direct” and not the result of one of its own errant missiles. However, there has been division and controversy in the Ukrainian response, as noted by Peskov’s statement.
An adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky actually initially said the apartment block in Dnipro was hit by an errant Ukrainian anti-air defense missile which had been fired in an attempt to intercept an inbound Russian rocket. The presidential aide, Oleksiy Arestovych, unleashed immediate controversy and anger from fellow officials in making the public remarks which aired live on a national television broadcast, and which were picked up in Russian media.
Ukraine officials say the rocket was a Kh-22, and argued that its forces lack the capability to shoot down this particular projectile. In the wake of the controversial statements Arestovych apologized to the nation and stepped down:
“I wrote a letter of resignation. I want to set an example of civilized behavior. A fundamental mistake means resignation,” Oleksiy Arestovych, posted on Facebook alongside a photo of his resignation letter.
Arestovych said further he made “a serious mistake, made during a live broadcast” in the initial TV interview with those comments. “I sincerely apologize to the victims and their relatives, the residents of the Dnipro and everyone who was deeply wounded by my premature error version of the reason the Russian missile hit a residential building,” he added.
But he also still sought to defend himself to some degree, saying, “The level of hate directed at me is incomparable with the consequences of the on-air mistake,” and said his apology was not issued specifically toward “the people who are spinning this issue.”
Below are the brief comments from the interview which unleashed controversy, and led to the Zelensky aide’s essentially forced resignation…
Russian state media and Kremlin officials have also picked up Arestovych’s initial explanation of an errant Ukrainian missile hitting the apartment building, given that in coming during candid remarks from a high-ranking Ukrainian official, it’s a significant indicator that Russia’s denials and explanation are plausible.
end
Ukraine’s energy infrastructure is destroyed and they need immediately thousands of high power transformers.
(Warnews/Robert H)
Russian crushing blow – Ukraine: “Energy infrastructure destroyed – We need thousands of high power transformers” – WarNews247
| Robert Hryniak | 11:01 AM (3 minutes ago) | | |
| to | |||
More AIr strikes will occur shortly to render the Ukraine, incapable of waging war of any kind.
This is the next stage General Armageddon will do as this is his priority now.
The West has no capability to supply needed transformers. All weapons being supplied are meaningless as the it will only shortly delay realities.
Electric trains do not run without electricity. And thus troop movements are slow and road bound. And they need fuel which will come from where? Expect many fuel processing facilities to be destroyed. It is all tactical and operational as to degree. One hardly imagines that horses will substitute. Nor will long supply chains of fuel trucks from neighboring countries as they are ready targets inside Ukraine.
The proxy fighting has a timeline on being over and soon the roaches will be seen running for cover. Smart ones will bail sooner than later to avoid fallout.
end