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HomeJAN 18//GOLD CLOSED DOWN $1.95 TO $1905.20//SILVER WAS DOWN 41 CENTS TO...
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JAN 18//GOLD CLOSED DOWN $1.95 TO $1905.20//SILVER WAS DOWN 41 CENTS TO $23.55//PLATINUM HOLDS STEADY DOWN ONLY 50 CENTS WHEREAS PALLADIUM FELL BADLY AGAIN BY $26.30 TO $1719.90//COVID UPDATES//VACCINE IMPACT//DR PAUL ALEXANDER//UKRAINE VS RUSSIA UPDATES//JAPAN KEEPS YCC CURVE INTACT: JIM GRANT OF INTEREST RATE OBSERVER A MUST READ//TRAFIGURA TO REMOVE HUGE AMOUNTS OF COPPER FROM LME//BARRICK GOLD CONTINUES TO DISAPPOINT ON GOLD PRODUCTION///SAUDIS CONFIRM NON DOLLAR OIL TRADE, THUS THE BIRTH OF THE PETROYUAN//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

Date:

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jan 18 · by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

GOLD PRICE CLOSED: DOWN $1.95 at $1905.20

SILVER PRICE CLOSED: DOWN $0.41  to $23.51

Access prices: closes : 4: 15 PM

Gold ACCESS CLOSE 1908.10

Silver ACCESS CLOSE: 23.91

Bitcoin morning price:, 21,323 UP 121 DOLLARS

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $20,859 DOWN 343  dollars

Platinum price closing  $1042.95 DOWN $0.50

Palladium price; closing 1719.40 DOWN $26.30

END

Due to the huge rise in the dollar, we must look at gold and silver in currencies other than the dollar to understand where we are heading

I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros/4: 15 PM ACCESS

CANADIAN GOLD: $2569.76 UP $13.83 CDN dollars per oz

BRITISH GOLD: 1542.50 DOWN 11.37 pounds per oz

EURO GOLD: 1764.21 DOWN 4.84  euros per oz

EXCHANGE: COMEX

 EXCHANGE: COMEX

CONTRACT: JANUARY 2023 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,907.200000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 01/17/2023 DELIVERY DATE: 01/19/2023
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED


118 C MACQUARIE FUT 50
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 3
661 C JP MORGAN 656 2
737 C ADVANTAGE 2
880 H CITIGROUP 707
905 C ADM 2


TOTAL: 711 711
MONTH TO DATE: 2,951

JPMorgan stopped 2/711

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GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR JAN/2023. CONTRACT:   711 NOTICES FOR 71100  OZ  or  2.2115 TONNES

total notices so far: 2,951 contracts for 295,100 oz (9.1788 tonnes)

 

SILVER NOTICES: 86 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 430,000 OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month  951 for 4,755,000  oz



END

GLD

WITH GOLD DOWN $1.95

INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.9 TONNES FROM THE GLD //

INVENTORY RESTS AT 909.24 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 41 CENTS

AT THE SLV// :/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// WHAT A MASSIVE FRAUD!!!

A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 8.15 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY: 498.05 MILLION OZ (THIS IS ALSO A CRIME SCENE@!!!!

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE


SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 129 CONTRACTS TO 131,862 AND CLOSER TO  THE  RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR  $0.35 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON TUESDAY.  FOR THE PAST WEEK, OUR BANKERS HAVE RETURNED TO BEING NET SHORT AND THUS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.35 ABUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPEC LONGS, AS WE HAD A STRONG GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 984 CONTRACTS. AS WELL, WE HAD ZERO  EXCHANGE FOR RISK TRANSFER ( 0 CONTRACTS) AS THE TOTAL ISSUED IN THIS CATEGORY SO FAR THIS MONTH TOTAL 3.75 MILLION OZ.  WE HAVE FINISHED WITH OUR SPECS BEING SHORT AS THEY COVERED WITH THE RISE IN PRICE .  WE HAVE NOW RETURNED TO OUR USUAL AND CUSTOMARY SCENARIO: BANKERS SHORT AND SPECS LONG.

WE  MUST HAVE HAD: 
A STRONG  ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) AN  INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT  4,055. MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE. JUMP   OF 150,000 OZ//NEW STANDING 4.790 MILLION OZ + 3.75 MILLION OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL STANDING 8.54 MILLION OZ////  V)  FAIR SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/ STRONG EFP ISSUANCE/

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL  –262

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS JAN. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF JAN: 

TOTAL CONTRACTS for 11 days, total 5373 contracts:   OR 26.865  MILLION OZ PER DAY. (488 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 26.865 MILLION OZ

.

LAST 17 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ 

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE 

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ 

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ 

SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL

OCT.  29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL

NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL

DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL

JAN 2023///   26.865 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 129 DESPITE OUR   $0.35 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// TUESDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG  SIZED EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 593 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR MAR AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JAN OF  4.055 MILLION  OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 150,000 OZ. JUMP  /  //NEW STANDING INCREASES TO 4.790 MILLION OZ + EFR 3.75 MILLION = 8.540 MILLION OZ.  .. WE HAVE A VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 722 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 3.612 MILLION  OZ.. THE SILVER SHORTS HAVE BEEN HURT BADLY WITH SILVER’S HUGE RISE LATELY.

 WE HAD  86  NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR  430,000   OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL  BY A GOOD SIZED 5875  CONTRACTS  TO 491,818 AND FURTHER FROM  THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED 2416  CONTRACTS.

.

 WE HAD A GOOD SIZED DECREASE  IN COMEX OI (5875 CONTRACTS)  WITH OUR  $11.45 LOSS IN PRICE. WE ALSO HAD A SMALL INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR JAN. AT 2.1710 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 700 CONTRACTS OR 70,000 OZ  //(QUEUE JUMPING = EXERCISING LONDON BASED EFP’S ) (EFP is the transfer of  contracts immediately to London for potential gold deliveries originating from London). NEW STANDING 10.6189 TONNES

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED DESPITE OUR  $11.45 LOSS IN PRICE  WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 6192 OI CONTRACTS (19.259 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A HUMONGOUS SIZED 12,067 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 491,818

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 6192 CONTRACTS  WITH 5875 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 12,067 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 6192 CONTRACTS OR 19.259 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A HUGE SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (12,067 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE  GOOD SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (5875) TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 8608 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR NORMAL FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING SHORT AND SPECULATORS GOING LONG  ,2.) SMALL INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR JAN. AT 2.1710 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 70,000 OZ /NEW STANDING 8.2861 TONNES///3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION //4)    GOOD SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS 5) HUMONGOUS ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY

JAN

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JAN :

40,213  CONTRACTS OR 4,021,300 OZ OR 125.079 TONNES 11 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 3655 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 11 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES:125.079   TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2021, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  125.079/3550 x 100% TONNES  3.52% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 202

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN).. 

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE// 

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH:  409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247,44 TONNES FINAL// 

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES  FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL

OCT:  177.57  TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

NOV.  223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)

DEC:  185.59 tonnes // FINAL

JAN 2023:    125.079 TONNES INITIAL

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW  ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF FEB. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF BOTH GOLD (

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR BOTH GOLD:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (NOV), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 129 CONTRACTS OI TO  131,862 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  5 YEARS AGO.  

EFP ISSUANCE 593 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

MAR  593 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 593 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI GAIN  OF 391  CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE  593 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A STRONG GAIN OF 722 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. 

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 3.612 MILLION OZ//

OCCURRED DESPITE OUR 35 CENT LOSS IN PRICE ….. OUR SPEC SHORTS HAVE NOWHERE TO HIDE!

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

end

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

end

5. Other gold/silver commentaries

6. Commodity commentaries//CORN

7/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING//TUESDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 0.16 PTS OR 0.00%   //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 100368 PTS OR 0.47%     /The Nikkei closed UP 652.44 PTS OR 2.50%            //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.16%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP TO 6.7538//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP TO 6.7594//    /Oil UP TO 81.63 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 87.17   / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN         ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A GOOD SIZED 5875 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 491,818 WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $11.45

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON-ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JAN…  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A HUMONGOUS  SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 12,067 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;: ,  . 0 FEB: 12,067 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  12067   CONTRACTS 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A VERY STRONG SIZED  TOTAL OF 6192 CONTRACTS IN THAT 12,067 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A GOOD SIZED  COMEX OI LOSS OF 5875 CONTRACTS..AND  THIS STRONG SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR LOSS  IN PRICE OF $11.45. WE ARE NOW WITNESSING THE BANKERS GOING NET SHORT AND THE SPECS GOING NET LONG .

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING Jan  (10,6189)

TONNES),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL  YEAR  2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT.  38.1158 TONNES

OCT:  77.390 TONNES/ FINAL

NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL (TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR 591.535 TONNES)

Dec. 64.541 tonnes

JAN/2023: 10.6189 tonnes

THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL $11.45)  //// BUT WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY  SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A VERY STRONG GAIN OF 6192 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES  //    WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI  OF 19.259PAPER TONNES OF TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JAN. (2.1710 TONNES) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 70,000 oz  OR 2.177 TONNES… ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR FALL IN PRICE  TO THE TUNE OF $11.45.  

WE HAD – 2416 CONTRACTS  COMEX TRADES REMOVED FROM OPEN INTEREST AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 8608 CONTRACTS OR 860,800 OZ OR 26.774 TONNES

Estimated gold comex today 233,065//fair//

final gold volumes/yesterday  315,452///good

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR  JAN 2023 COMEX GOLD //JAN 18//

GoldOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz
 nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz nil oz




 




.

 








 









 
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oznil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
nil  oz
No of oz served (contracts) today711 notice(s)
71100 OZ
2.2115 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)  463 contracts 
  46300 oz
1.440 TONNES

 
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month 2951  notices
295,100
9.1788 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this monthxxx oz

i)Dealer deposits: 0

total dealer deposit:  nil oz

No dealer withdrawals

Customer deposits: 0

total deposits: nil oz

 customer withdrawals: 0

Total withdrawals: nil oz

total  0 oz

total in tonnes: 0  tonnes

Adjustments:0   

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JANUARY.

For the front month of JANUARY we have an oi of 1124 contracts having gained 603  contracts

We had 97 notices served on Tuesday, so we gained 700 contracts or an additional 70000 oz(2.1772 tonnes) will stand for delivery in this

very non active delivery month of January.  (queue jump) 

February lost  20,692  contacts  to 235,016

March gained 75 contracts to stand at 796.

April gained 13,243 contracts up to 201,823.

We had 711  notice(s) filed today for 71100 oz 

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and  656  notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to  711  contract(s) of which 0   notices were stopped (received) by  j.P. Morgan dealer and 2  notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JAN. /2023. contract month, 

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (2951 x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (JAN.1174 CONTRACTS)  minus the number of notices served upon today  711 x 100 oz per contract equals 341,400 OZ  OR 10.6189 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this    non active month of January. 

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JAN contract month:

No of notices filed so far (2951 x 100 oz+   (1174 OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (711} x 100 oz} which equals 341,400 oz standing OR 10.6189 TONNES in this NON  active delivery month of JAN..

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 10.6189 TONNES  (A VERY STRONG STANDING FOR METAL//COMEX RUNNING OUT OF PHYSICAL TO SERVE UPON OUR LONGS.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

we had one adjustment of 110,631.591 oz Brinks

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 o

total pledged gold:  1,920,041.721 OZ   59.72 tonnes

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED:  22,781,209.077 OZ  

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD:  11,077,098.948 OZ     (344,54 tonnes)..dropping fast

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 11,704,110.129 OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 9,157,051 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 284,82 tonnes//rapidly declining 

END

SILVER/COMEX

JAN 18/2023//INITIAL JAN. SILVER CONTRACT

SilverOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers InventoryNIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory50,846.470 oz
CNT
JPM































 










 
Deposits to the Dealer Inventorynil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventorynil oz















 











 
No of oz served today (contracts)86 CONTRACT(S)  
 (430,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)7 contracts 
(35,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)951 contracts
 (4,755,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month


i)  0 
dealer deposit

total dealer deposits:  nil   oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals:  oz

We have 0 deposits into the customer account

Total deposits: NIL oz 

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 151.981 million oz/295.292 million =51.52% of comex .//dropping fast

  Comex withdrawals: 2

i) Out of CNT: 35,523.729 oz

ii) Out of JPMorgan: 15,322.750 oz 

Total withdrawals; 50,846.470 oz

adjustments: 0

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 33.195 MILLION OZ (declining rapidly).TOTAL REG + ELIG. 295.292 MILLION OZ 

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JAN

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF JAN/2023 OI: 93  CONTRACTS HAVING GAINED 59  CONTRACT(S.). WE HAD 29 NOTICES

FILED ON TUESDAY SO  WE GAINED 30 CONTRACT(S) OR 150,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP  BY THE BANKERS TO OBTAIN SOME SILVER OVER HERE. 

FEB> LOST 31 CONTRACTS TO 165 CONTRACTS

March LOST 442 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 109,972 contracts

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY:86 for  430,000 oz

Comex volumes// est. volume today  80,378//strong  

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 89,872 contracts ( strong)

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JANUARY. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 951 x  5,000 oz = 4,755,000 oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JAN(93) and the number of notices served upon today 86 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the JAN./2023 contract month: 951 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of JAN (93 – number of notices served upon today (86) x 500 oz of silver standing for the JAN. contract month equates 4.790 million oz  + 3.75 MILLION OZ ( EXCHANGE FOR RISK) = 8.54MILLION OZ//(TOTAL OZ OF SILVER STANDING).

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

Comex volumes:59,231// est. volume today//   good

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 76,646 contracts ( very good)

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS

JAN 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.95 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.9 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 909.24 TONNES

JAN 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.45 TODAY; NO  CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.14 TONNES

JAN 13/WITH GOLD UP $22.90 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.14 TONNES

JAN 12/WITH GOLD UP $20.55 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.43 TONNES

JAN 11/WITH GOLD UP $1.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.17 TONNES

JAN 10/WITH GOLD UP $1.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.33 TONNES

JAN 9/WITH GOLD UP $ 8.60 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES FROM THE GLD//.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.33 TONNES

JAN 6/WITH GOLD UP $28.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.77 TONNES

JAN 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.05 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES FORM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.77 TONNES

JANUARY 4/WITH GOLD UP $32.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.64 TONNES

JAN 3/WITH GOLD UP $20.00 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:STRANGE: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES FORM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.64 TONNES

DEC 30/WITH GOLD UP $.80 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.51 TONNES

DEC 29//WITH GOLD UP $8.35 TODAY:; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.51 TONNES

DEC 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.80 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 5.50 TONNES INTO THE GLD..//INVENTORY REST S AT 918.51 TONNES

DEC 27/WITH GOLD UP $18.15 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.01 TONNES

DEC 23/WITH GOLD UP $19,15 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.88 TONNES/

DEC 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $29.35 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.88 TONNES

DEC 21/WITH GOLD FLAT TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.88 TONNES

DEC 20/WITH GOLD UP $27.05: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.73 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.14 TONNES

DEC 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.10: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD> A BIG WITHDRAWAL OF 3.47 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 910.41 TONNES

DEC 16/WITH GOLD UP $12.45: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.32 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.88 TONNES

DEC 15//WITH GOLD DOWN $31.00: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 911.56 TONNES

DEC 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.20: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.32 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.72 TONNES

DEC 13/WITH GOLD UP $32.75: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.32 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 910.41

DEC 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.60: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.09 TONNES

DEC 9/WITH GOLD UP $8.90//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.09 TONNES

Dec 8/WITH GOLD UP $4.05, OVER THE PAST 3 WEEKS WE LOST 2.04 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.09 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 909.24  TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

JAN 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 41 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 8.15 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.05 MILLION OZ///

JAN 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 35 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 506.200 MILLION OZ//

JAN 13/WITH SILVER UP 46 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.5 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 506.200 MILLION OZ//

JAN 12/WITH SILVER UP 44 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 508.700 MILLION OZ/

JAN 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 508.700MILLION OZ

JAN 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.65 MILLION OZ

JAN 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.65 MILLION OZ//

JAN 6/WITH SILVER UP 54 CENTS TODAY;BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 4.20 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.65 MILLION OZ//

JAN 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 50 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.10 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 505.45 MILLION OZ//

JAN 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 26 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.3 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 506.55 MILLION OZ/

JAN 3/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: STRANGE: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.2 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 507.85 MILLION OZ/

DEC 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.050 MILLION OZ

DEC 29/ WITH SILVER UP $0.63 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.050 MILLION OZ

DEC 28//WITH SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.715 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///..INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.050 MILLION OZ

DEC 27/WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/A WITHDRAWAL OF 550,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 507.350 MILLION OZ//

DEC 23/WITH SILVER UP 29 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT507.900 MILLION O//

DEC 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 53 CENTS TODAY;NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 507.90 MILLION OZ//

DEC 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.0 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 507.90 MILLION OZ//

DEC 20/WITH SILVER UP 105 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:: A DEPOSIT OF 700,000 OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.90 MILLION OZ//

DEC 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.05 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.20 MILLION OZ//

DEC 16/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.85 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 508.15 MILLION OZ//

DEC 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 78 CENTS: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF EXACTLY 2.00 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 510.000 MILLION OZ

DEC 14/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.7 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 512.000 MILLION OZ//

DEC 13/WITH SILVER UP 59 CENTS: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 600,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 513.900 MILLION OZ//

DEC 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 33 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.500 MILLION OZ//

DEC 9/WITH SILVER RISING 77 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.2 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.500 MILLION OZ.

DEC 8/WITH SILVER RISING 34 CENTS TODAY: OVER THE PAST 3 WEEKS, WE HAVE GAINED A STRONG: 44.777 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 516.700 MILION OZ.

CLOSING INVENTORY 498.05 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1:Peter Schiff

end

2 Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz//Rickards:

Open Madness in Global Bond Markets: Got Gold?

Matthew Piepenburg
January 18, 2023

The slow but steady implosion of global bond markets is no longer a debate but fact. Knowing this, investors can better brace themselves for the policy and market reactions to come.

Below, we once again follow the patterns of math and cycles (as well as the open failure of policy makers) to foresee the direction of risk assets, currencies and gold.

The End of Negative Yields: Anything but a Good Sign

Recently, Bloomberg happily announced that the era of “negative yielding” (which technically means “defaulting”) USD bonds is over as yields are now “nominally positive.”

JAN 18//GOLD CLOSED DOWN .95 TO 05.20//SILVER WAS DOWN 41 CENTS TO .55//PLATINUM HOLDS STEADY DOWN ONLY 50 CENTS WHEREAS PALLADIUM FELL BADLY AGAIN BY .30 TO 19.90//COVID UPDATES//VACCINE IMPACT//DR PAUL ALEXANDER//UKRAINE VS RUSSIA UPDATES//JAPAN KEEPS YCC CURVE INTACT: JIM GRANT OF INTEREST RATE OBSERVER A MUST READ//TRAFIGURA TO REMOVE HUGE AMOUNTS OF COPPER FROM LME//BARRICK GOLD CONTINUES TO DISAPPOINT ON GOLD PRODUCTION///SAUDIS CONFIRM NON DOLLAR OIL TRADE, THUS THE BIRTH OF THE PETROYUAN//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

“Great news!” they tell the huddling masses.

Nothing, however, could be further from the truth.

Let me repeat that: Nothing could be further from the truth.

Yields are only outpacing already embarrassing inflation metrics because bond prices, which move inversely to yields, are tanking in a world which no longer wants or trust USD-based IOUs.

In other words: All this means is that bonds are tanking and inflation is roaring at the same time. 

Great news?                                                                

Furthermore, this so-called “return to normalcy” in positive nominal yields is in fact a neon-flashing sign (or needle) pointing toward the end (and bursting) of a global debt bubble in government bonds.

What’s worse, and as the following graph makes objectively clear, is that it’s not just sovereign bonds that are tanking, but the entire credit asset class, from CMBS to Investment Grade.

Just see for yourself:

global bond markets

These are appalling figures which cannot be ignored.

Facts, after all, are stubborn things.

Facts vs. Headlines

Despite such empirical data, many financial “journalists” are paid to sell a simplistic message rather than objective clarity. Ignoring the obvious fall in bond prices (above), they somehow have the gal to celebrate “positive nominal yields” in a twist of messaging that almost defies belief.

And few, if any, of these “experts” have the historical and non-linear market knowledge to place singular/linear headlines (fantasies) like positive nominal yields within the more nuanced context of 3-dimensional reality—namely dying bonds.

History, for example, would remind these misleading headlines that for well over a century, every time sovereign debt in advanced economies (now just banana republics) reaches unpayable levels (higher than even EM levels), the net result is unequivocal: It’s either inflation or default.

Always. Every time. Period.

The current disaster in global bond markets, playing out now, will be no different: Inflation, default or “reset.”

Policy Makers Heading in the Wrong Direction

After years of buying time, votes, book deals and even a Nobel Prize, global financial leaders have smiled in public while privately failing with staggering panache among the more informed.

Rather than openly face and solve $300+T debt disasters the hard way, namely via economic growth, fiscal austerity, debt restructuring, inflation recognition (vs. “transitory” denial) and an accountable and transparent need for financial repression (nod to Reinhart and Rogoff), our leaders and central bankers have gone in the complete opposite and wrong direction.

Instead, they have recklessly and addictively relied upon mouse-click fiat money rather than money tied to actual goods, services and production to provisionally support years and years of un-earned reputations and unloved bonds.

As opposed to politically unpopular fiscal austerity, the math-ignorant and job-preserving (i.e., pathologically selfish) US politicos just added another $1.7 trillion spending bill to bribe/pay for their tenure but which they can’t otherwise pay back.

Instead, they just hand the bill to my kids.

You really can’t make this stuff up. It’s embarrassing open madness and blatant self-interest over national interest.

But then again, that’s the effective definition of a politician: Self first, nation later. Facts be damned.

Just consider fact-allergic clowns like George Santos

Nothing Left but Bad Choices

Economic growth, as we see it (and as housing, manufacturing, trade and services data confirm) will not save us or our bonds.

The debt is factually too high and the growth, even if China re-opens its COVID-locked doors, will never catch up.

Further debt and slower growth points to the only options left in the global bond markets: 1) Print more fake and grotesquely inflationary money to buy unloved bonds, 2) default on those bonds (political suicide) or 3) enter into a Western debt restructure—aka the big re-set for which I’ve previously warned will be “greased” via the introduction of a CBDC-driven control state masquerading as an “efficient payment system.”

Wonderful.

Watch the Bond Market: It’s the Thing

As I’ve said for years, and will openly say for years more: The bond market is the thing.

Everything follows the bond market’s lead, because debt rather than growth, manufacturing and sound fiscal leadership has been the singular and toxic wind beneath the broken wings of every national flag since Greenspan killed capitalism years ago.

Debt, of course, buys time. And mouse-click money buys the debt. This madness creates false fun, intoxication and drunken euphoria. Our S&P, for example, simply tracks (up or down) Fed QE or QT. In short: A Fed Market.

global bond markets

But there’s a cost for such madness.

As Rates Rise, Markets Fall

Mouse-click money also creates inflation and distorts every other asset class, from housing to stocks.

Property markets, for example, love low rates but crater once rates rise and affordability metrics tank, and I do mean TANK:

global bond markets

As we are seeing in real time, eventually the fantasy and artificial tailwind of drunken QE becomes a sickening hangover as central bankers like Powell try to “tighten” what was once “loose.”

Astounding Arrogance

These central bankers share the astounding arrogance of believing (or at least pretending) that markets can be carefully controlled like a home thermostat to usher in “soft QT landings” after years of fatally addictive QE highs.

But as the data now confirms, there’s nothing soft now or ahead.

During the QE intoxication period, when bonds are bought by central banks to keep yields and rates artificially repressed, the cost of debt is nearly free and the stock, bond and property markets balloon on free money, stock buy-backs and seemingly perpetual debt roll-overs.

Tech Stocks & Property Markets

This was especially true of tech stocks like the FANGS—their entire rise and fall was and is clearly correlated to a fake money printer and low rates, as I patiently warned years ago and had recently been shorting to my advantage once the sign was clear.

It was easy to see. The Fed (and rate markets) signaled it.

global bond markets

Too Little, Too Late: The Open Failure of Modern Monetary “Policy”

In 2022, when central bankers privately realized they had made an historical QE mistake and tried (far too late with far too little) to introduce QT, Titanic stock, property and currency bubbles began their slow then rapid fall toward the ocean’s floor.

In 2022, for example, the tightening Fed reduced its sickening balance sheet by a mere 2.4%. Hardly a dent.

But even that pathetically tiny bit of “tightening” in the US backdrop of a pathetically massive debt-to-GDP ratio of 125% was enough to usher in the worst year for stocks and bonds since 1871.

Please: Re-read those last lines and re-examine those last two graphs. Let it sink in.

By now, it should be bluntly obvious how central banks rather than natural market forces OWN our so-called “free markets”?

Where the money printing goes (up or down), so goes the debt-driven markets and debt-soaked economies they manipulate.

Far, far more alarming, however, is this little added fact: If QT continues at its current pace of -$95 billion per month, just imagine what such a 13% annualized Fed balance sheet reduction (as opposed to 2.4% in 2022) in 2023 will do to these already historically broken markets?

Will a QE Pivot Even Work?

In the past, of course, the Fed’s “easy solution” to tanking markets was just another drunken run (or pivot) toward a QE money printer to finance US debts and hence keep yields and rates “accommodated” and “controlled.”

But in the past, US deficits were below 20% of global GDP growth. That was a ticking time bomb.

But heading into 2023, US deficits are already greater than 30% of global GDP growth, which means that time bomb is already exploding.

Sensational?

Nope.

This is just the simple philosophy of debt and the open failure of years of easy money and easy credit, none of which our central bankers will transparently confess, as Putin and COVID serve as far better scapegoats for the real goats at the trigger of our mouse-clicked money.

In short, it took us 150 years to see markets this pathetic, and the worst is still to come.

Thus, as Congress spends like a drunken sailor, who will pay its embarrassing bar tab?

The private sector?

Nope. The balance sheets just aren’t there.

A pivot to more QE?

Well, short of an intervening “re-set,” that’s an inevitable albeit desperate possibility—and it will send gold soaring, and likely BTC as well, whatever one’s views on the current (and FTX infected) crypto narrative.

The US Dollar’s Slow Fall from Prominence

Of course, more money printing at the Fed will weaken even the relatively strong but unsustainable USD of 2022, as we’ve consistently warnedthroughout the USD’s 2022 rise.

The temporary, relative and artificially strong USD of 2022 was an absolute kick in the groin to currencies and nations like the EU, UK and Japan whose currency and bond markets didn’t and don’t have the global world reserve status to similarly raise rates hundreds of basis points in a year to “fight inflation” (or Putin’s Ruble…).

Japan & the EU: Fighting Back?

But even these hard realities haven’t prevented a zombie nation like Japan from attempting to now fight the USD, as Tokyo’s recent move to raise 10-year rates on the JGB confirms.

This rate hike provided a little wind behind the dying yen, as expected, in the now unofficial currency war taking place globally.

More importantly, there is increasing talk out of Tokyo to repatriate capital back to Japan, which would involve dumping more USTs to purchase more Japanese IOUs at a time when the US needs more not less buyers of its unloved and distrusted bonds.

By the way, less demand for USTs just means more rising yields and rates…

In sum, the slow but steady process of de-Dollarization continues its predictable trend as the US runs out of options, trust and friends in a bond and currency market in the middle of a major “Uh-Oh” moment.

The 2023 ECB, moreover, is already signaling similar rate hikes and flows away from USTs in favor of its own dying local bonds and currency. This won’t help Uncle Sam’s bar tab…

Again: The bond market is the thing, and these things (most notably US bonds) are objectively rotten to the core.

Shark Fins Approaching

More rising bond yields are the rising shark fins swimming at full speed toward global economies bloodying their waters with unsustainable debts and recessionary chum.

The Planned Recession

The only force to slow down these rising yields/shark fins is the mother of all Fed-induced recessions (deflationary), which means Powell’s promise of a “softish landing” is about as bankable as his promise of “transitory” inflation.

As I’ve said many times, no recession can be cured with rising rates and a strong currency. Never. Not once.

Thus, once the re-defined and unofficial recession we are already in becomes “official”—the US will weaken its Dollar, which gold, of course, will love. If not already in 2023, certainly by 2024.

All we can do for now is track those shark fins and doubt those bankers.

END

3. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries//

Barrick gold misses again, producing only 4.14 million oz last year

(Bloomberg)

Barrick misses gold guidance as output sinks to 22-year low

Submitted by admin on Tue, 2023-01-17 21:35Section: Daily Dispatches

By Jacob Lorine
Bloomberg News
Tuesday, January 17, 2023

Barrick Gold Corp.’s bullion output slid last year to its lowest level since 2000, missing analysts’ expectations and its own target as operational woes curbed production.


Barrick produced 4.14 million ounces of gold last year, marking its third straight decline in annual output, according to preliminary figures released today by the company. Chief Executive Officer Mark Bristow had said as recently as Nov. 3 that Barrick was on track to achieve its annual guidance of 4.2 million to 4.6 million ounces, albeit at the lower end of the range. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-17/barrick-misses-gold-guidance-as-output-sinks-to-22-year-low

end

Trafigura plans to take a huge amount of LME copper. That should be interesting

(Reuters)

Trafigura plans to take large amounts of LME copper, sources tell Reuters

Submitted by admin on Tue, 2023-01-17 21:56Section: Daily Dispatches

How rude not to trust the London Metals Exchange!

* * *

By Pratima Desai
Reuters
Tuesday, January 17, 2023

LONDON — Commodity trader Trafigura is planning to take large amounts of copper from London Metal Exchange registered warehouses, two people familiar with the matter said, adding that the metal was likely to remain in Europe.

Copper stocks in LME registered warehouses stand at 83,325 tonnes and are already low. Canceled warrants — metal earmarked for delivery — stand at 31.2% or 26,000 tonnes. This compares with 12% on Jan. 3.

Most of the cancelled warrants — 20,600 according to the latest data from the LME — are in Rotterdam, Netherlands.

Trafigura declined to comment on whether it was behind the cancellations, but said: “In an environment of constrained supply, reflected by high copper benchmarks in Europe, we are ensuring we can continue to supply our customers with the metals they need.”

The cancellations and large holdings of copper warrants and cash contracts are fuelling some concern about supplies on the LME market. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/trafigura-plans-take-large-amounts-lme-copper-sources-2023-01-17/

END

The kiss of death to the Petrodollar scheme!!

(Bloomberg/GATA)

Saudi Arabia open to settling trade without U.S. dollars

Submitted by admin on Tue, 2023-01-17 22:29Section: Daily Dispatches

By Abeer Abu Omar and Manus Cranny
Bloomberg News
Tuesday, January 17, 2023

Saudi Arabia is open to discussions about trade in currencies other than the US dollar, according to the kingdom’s finance minister.

“There are no issues with discussing how we settle our trade arrangements, whether it is in the U.S. dollar, whether it is the euro, whether it is the Saudi riyal,” Mohammed Al-Jadaan told Bloomberg TV today in an interview in Davos, Switzerland.

“I don’t think we are waving away or ruling out any discussion that will help improve the trade around the world,” Al-Jadaan said. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-17/saudi-arabia-open-to-talks-on-trade-in-currencies-besides-dollar

end

Silver futures market is ‘ready to bust,’ GATA’s Steer says

Submitted by admin on Tue, 2023-01-17 22:42Section: Daily Dispatches

10:35p ET Tuesday, January 17, 2023

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

GATA board member Ed Steer, publisher of Ed Steer’s Gold and Silver Digest letter, tells Jim Goddard of HoweStreet.com that trader positioning in the U.S. silver futures market shows that it is “ready to bust.” 

The interview is 18 minutes long and can be heard at YouTube here:

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

 end

end

4. Other gold/silver commentaries


end

Commodity commentaries//GLOBAL FREIGHT

END

IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES ON COMMODITIES:

-END-

6/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC

FTX Says $413 Million Worth Of Cryptocurrency Was Stolen From Failed Exchange

WEDNESDAY, JAN 18, 2023 – 02:40 PM

Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times,

Debtors for the bankrupt cryptocurrency exchange FTX have said that around $413 million worth of cryptocurrency was stolen from the company through “unauthorized transfers.”

In a report to creditors on Jan. 17, the company said that FTX debtors have identified approximately $1.6 billion of digital assets associated with FTX.com, of which $323 million of which was “subject to unauthorized third-party transfers” and $426 million of which was “transferred to cold storage under the control of the Securities Commission of The Bahamas.”

Another $742 million is in “cold storage” under the control of the FTX debtors, and $121 million of which is pending transfer to “cold storage” under the control of the FTX debtors.

The term “cold storage” refers to keeping cryptocurrency keys offline and unconnected to a network or the internet in order to improve security.

With regards to the FTX US exchange, the debtors identified roughly $181 million of digital assets, $90 million of which was “subject to unauthorized third-party transfers post-petition, $88 million of which is in cold storage under the control of the FTX debtors, and $3 million of which is pending transfer to cold storage under the control of the FTX debtors.”

FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried leaves Manhattan Federal Court after his arraignment and bail hearings in New York, on Dec. 22, 2022. (David Dee Delgado/Getty Images)

‘Substantial Shortfall of Digital Assets’

Overall, the debtors have identified approximately $5.5 billion in liquid assets, including $1.7 billion in cash, $3.5 billion of crypto assets, and $300 million in securities since the firm filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in November 2022.

The company stopped short of providing an estimate of total liabilities, but added that based on current estimates of the amount of digital assets associated with the FTX.com and FTX US, there is a “substantial shortfall of digital assets at both exchanges.”

FTX, which was founded in 2019 and once valued at $32 billion, filed for bankruptcy protection on Nov. 11 following a spectacular collapse amid a liquidity crisis after it was revealed that the hedge fund Alameda had been using FTX customer assets to keep itself propped up.

A potential rescue deal by larger rival Binance was also pulled, adding further woes to the company as traders quickly raced to pull billions of cryptocurrency from the exchange.

According to a court filing, FTX owed its 50 largest creditors almost $3.1 billion while an estimated $8 billion in customer funds disappeared.

The firm’s founder, Sam Bankman-Fried, was subsequently arrested on Dec. 17 in the Bahamas, where the company was headquartered, and he was extradited to the United States, where he was released on a $250,000 bail and placed under house arrest at the California home of his parents, who were both law professors at Stanford University.

In January, Bankman-Fried pleaded not guilty to charges of fraud, conspiracy, campaign finance law violations, and money laundering.

Bankman-Fried Says He Didn’t Steal User Funds

Bankman-Fried is scheduled to go on trial in October 2023.

“We are making important progress in our efforts to maximize recoveries, and it has taken a Herculean investigative effort from our team to uncover this preliminary information,” said John J. Ray III, the chief executive officer and chief restructuring officer of the FTX debtors.

However, Ray stressed that the information is still preliminary and could change.

In his first statement since his arrest in the Bahamas, Bankman-Fried vowed to get customers their money back while doubling down on his previous claims that he did not steal users’ funds.

“I didn’t steal funds, and I certainly didn’t stash billions away,” the former founder wrote on his Substack blog on Jan. 12. He also claimed that FTX US was “fully solvent” and should be able to return all customers’ funds.

“It’s ridiculous that FTX US users haven’t been made whole and gotten their funds back yet,” Bankman-Fried wrote.

FTX debtors are also reviewing the roughly $2.1 billion equivalent in cash that cryptocurrency exchange Binance received as part of its exit from FTX in 2021, CNBC reports.

Binance chief executive Changpeng Zhao brushed off concerns that the exchange may have to hand the money back during an interview with the the media company in December, stating that the firm is “financially OK” and has a “very solid revenue.”

END

.

1. YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS//WEDNESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: UP TO  6.7538

OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.7594

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 0.16 PTS OR  0.00%

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 100.36 PTS 0.47%  

2. Nikkei closed UP 652.44 PTS OR 2.50%  

3. Europe stocks   SO FAR:  ALL GREEN

USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO  101.90 Euro RISES TO 1.0822 UP 33 BASIS PTS

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.419!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 129.24/JAPANESE YEN RISING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10  YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   UP-//  OFF- SHORE: UP

3f Japan is to buy INFINITE  TRILLION YEN’S worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt. 

3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund DOWN TO +2.055%***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield FALLS to 3.837%*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 3.016…** DANGEROUS//

3i Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO 4.024//

3j Gold at $1918.30//silver at: 24.21  7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0  AND  20/100        roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 68.94//

3m oil into the 81 dollar handle for WTI and  87 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 129.24/10 YEAR YIELD AFTER BREAKING .54% FALLS TO .414% ON CENTRAL BANK (jAPAN) INTERVENTION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.9141– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9903 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.479% DOWN 6 BASIS PTS…GETTING DANGEROUS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.601 DOWN 6 BASIS PTS//

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18,80…

GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: 3.347 % DOWN 6 BASIS PTS

end

i.b  Overnight:  Newsquawk and Zero hedge:

 FIRST, ZEROHEDGE (PRE USA OPENING// MORNING

Treasuries Drift Higher After BOJ Reversal, Await PPI And Retail Sales

WEDNESDAY, JAN 18, 2023 – 08:03 AM

US stock-index futures were muted on Wednesday, swinging between gains and losses, as investors initially welcomes a dovish announcement by the BOJ which refrained from further expanding its yield curve control band, then turned to corporate earnings for more clues on the health of corporate America amid growing prospects for a recession. Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500 futures were up 0.2% as of 7:15 a.m. in New York. Treasury and JGB yields tumbled after the BOJ kept monetary settings unchanged, while the yen first slid against the dollar but then recovered all losses amid expectations the BOJ has only bought a few weeks of time. WTI crude added 1.7% this morning and has been holding above $80 amid optimism around China reopening demand. Dollar is weaker; DXY at 102 helping gold trade back over $1900.

Among notable movers in premarket trading, Moderna Inc. climbed 6.7% after saying its vaccine against respiratory syncytial virus infections met targets. IBM dropped 1.9% after Morgan Stanley cut the stock to equal-weight from overweight, saying that it is transitioning out of more defensive IT hardware name. Bank stocks are mixed as investors await the release of key economic data, including the Beige Book and retail sales. Coinbase said it’s halting operations in Japan. Meanwhile, Bank of Montreal has received approval from the Federal Reserve to acquire San Francisco-based Bank of the West. Here are the other notable premarket movers:

  • United Airlines (UAL US) rises 2.6%, boosting carrier peers, after the airline operator’s guidance for the first quarter and 2023 beat analyst estimates. Brokers pointing to strong growth in sales, assuaging any worries over demand taking a hit from an economic slowdown. American Airlines +1.4%, Delta Air +1%
  • GoDaddy (GDDY US) gains 3% after the website domain company was upgraded to outperform from inline at Evercore ISI, with the broker highlighting the firm’s relatively recession- resistant business model and new-product cycle.
  • International Business Machines (IBM US) drops 1.9% after Morgan Stanley cut the stock to equal-weight from overweight, saying that it is transitioning out of more defensive IT hardware names.
  • Skechers (SKX US) slides 2.1% after Morgan Stanley downgraded it to equal-weight on valuation, risk of FY23 guidance missing expectations and as the market shifts to early-cycle names. The broker raised Gap (GPS US) to equal-weight and anticipates a 2023 of two halves for US specialty retail and department stores.
  • SmileDirectClub (SDC US) jumps 13% after the maker of dental aligners projected a narrower Ebitda loss for 2023 and said that it planned to rejig its global workforce and introduce additional cost savings. Jefferies, however, remains cautious on the stock, saying that the company saw a “weak” finish to a tough year.
  • Oatly (OTLY US) gains 6.3% after Mizuho Securities upgrades its rating on the oat drink company to buy from hold, with long-term growth seen still intact.

While US stocks have gained in the new year as cooling inflation spurred bets of a softening in the Federal Reserve’s policy, they’ve dramatically underperformed international peers as investors worry that the combination of rising interest rates and slowing consumer demand could trigger an economic contraction. A weaker dollar and optimism around a China reopening have lured investors to non-US stocks. Goldman Sachs strategists said US equity funds have seen outflows in the first two weeks of the year, while Europe has seen inflows — both major trend reversals from 2022. UK inflation as well as a more muted start to the US earnings-reporting season boosted those who believe monetary easing would have to begin this year.

The yen dropped as much as 2.6% against the dollar after Japan’s policymakers doubled down on defending their stimulus, defying intense market speculation. The currency later trimmed the losses to 0.7%. Even as investors remain on guard for the central bank to continue large scale bond buying to protect its yield goal, there are doubts about how long it can continue. The yen’s drop proved to be an idiosyncratic trend in the foreign-exchange markets as the dollar fell against all but five of its 31 major peers including the Japanese currency.

Meanwhile, Analysts expect fourth-quarter earnings to show a drop of 2.7%, the first year-over-year decline since 2020, according to data from Bloomberg Intelligence. “Given the difficult backdrop, there’s fear among some parts of the market that US earnings forecasts might still be too high for 2023 and that stocks might not be able to sustain their current strength,” said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell. He added that reports from the likes of Procter & Gamble Co., Schlumberger Ltd., Microsoft Corp. and Tesla Inc. “will certainly be ones to watch as their fortunes could have a major influence on market sentiment.”

European equity markets are mixed after the BOJ sent the yen spiraling lower by leaving its policy settings unchanged. The Stoxx 600 is up 0.1% with gains in the CAC and FTSE 100 while the DAX trades lower; today’s move brought the total Stoxx 600 gains since a Sept. 29 low to more than 19%. If the index closes at 20% or higher, it will join other regional peers in confirming a technical bull market. Tech, travel and miners are the best performing sectors while chemicals and real estate fall.  Here are the notable European movers:

  • Richemont shares gain as much as 2.8% in Europe despite the Cartier owner posting worse-than-expected 3Q sales as investors take the view that disruptions in China caused by a surge in Covid infections may prove temporary.
  • Just Eat Takeaway.com jumps as much as 16% after 4Q Ebitda beat estimates as the food delivery firm said it remains focused on improving profitability. Peers Deliveroo and Delivery Hero rose as much as +5.5% and 6.3% respectively
  • ASM International shares rise as much as 8.7% after 4Q update shows a strong beat on sales that is likely to boost sentiment on the semiconductor-equipment maker, analysts say. ASML shares rise as much as 2.1% in sympathy.
  • Capgemini shares rise as much as 3.5%, hitting highest in just over a month, after Barclays upgrades the IT services firm to overweight on greater resilience in its business mix and on utilization.
  • EQT shares drop as much as 8.4%, the most in more than three months, after the investment firm delivered results which analysts say missed on adjusted Ebitda.
  • Continental shares fall as much as 5% after the German car-parts and tiremaker said late Tuesday that it expects FY22 adjusted free cash flow of €200m, below its outlook range of €600m to €800m.
  • Encavis shares fall as much as 5.3% after Barclays analyst cut the recommendation to underweight from equalweight, Orsted also downgraded. Barclays notes that growth pipeline valuations for the two energy companies have moved significantly above vertically integrated peers.
  • Wise shares drop as much as 5%, extending yesterday’s double-digit losses, after the UK money- transfer firm’s growth slowed and missed analyst expectations.

Earlier in the session Asian stocks edged higher as Japanese shares advanced after the Bank of Japan announced no change to its yield curve control policy, countering broader caution ahead of the Lunar New Year holidays. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index erased an earlier loss of as much as 0.7% to rise 0.5%, lifted by communication services and health care shares. Japanese equities jumped as the yen fell after the BOJ kept policy on hold, pushing back against intense market speculation of policy change by ramping up the defense of its stimulus framework.

“What has been happening so far is a fairly easy pattern to understand,” said Makoto Furukawa, chief portfolio strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities. “I think the pattern of bank stocks rising and exchange-rate-sensitive stocks being hit will continue. Expectations for further revisions to the BOJ’s policy will emerge.” South Korea was among the biggest losers on Thursday, dragged by a loss in Samsung Electronics. Chinese benchmarks were mixed in thin volumes before market closures next week. The MSCI Asian stock benchmark has gained more than 20% from an October low to enter a bull market, outperforming US and European peers. Japanese stocks have underperformed, with the Nikkei down almost 1% in the same span, hurt in part by the BOJ’s December move to widen a band on bond yields.

Australian stocks edged higher: the S&P/ASX 200 index rose to close at 7,393.40, as healthcare and technology shares buoyed the benchmark. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index rose 0.3% to 11,920.41. The nation’s home sales fell 39% y/y in December, according to the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand.

The Bloomberg Dollar Index is down 0.3%, swinging to a loss in European trading as the greenback weakened against all of its Group-of-10 peers apart from the yen; the JPY traded well off its worst levels. EUR gained after ECB’s Villeroy said he was surprised by the sources story suggesting they are considering smaller hikes beyond February. GBP rose after data showed UK core CPI was slightly stronger than expected in December.  Some more details:

  • The yen slumped as much as as 2.6% against the dollar, hitting 131.58, and Japan’s bond yields fell by up to 11bps after the BOJ pushed back against intense market speculation of policy change by ramping up the defense of its stimulus framework. Risk reversals in the front-end rallied in the run-up to the BOJ decision in favor of greenback calls, suggesting that the market was positioning for a no-change decision by the central bank. The move for risk reversals suggests that investors are still looking for bullish yen expressions over the medium-term, and especially after Kuroda’s term ends in April
  • The Swiss franc extended its advance against to 0.9131 per dollar, the strongest level in a year
  • The euro extended an advance against the dollar and bunds reversed opening gains after ECB official Francois Villeroy de Galhau said that guidance from ECB President Christine Lagarde that borrowing costs will continue to be lifted in half-point steps for some time still holds. One trader has placed a large bet using options on German 5-year futures, targeting the yield to rise above 2.40% for maximum profit, up from about 2.13% currently
  • The pound rose against the dollar and traders added to wagers on the BOE’s hiking cycle after UK inflation figures showed month-on-month and core readings came in higher than anticipated in December

In rates, Treasuries and JGBs spiked higher overnight after the Bank of Japan kept monetary settings unchanged with no nod to any concession on current policy; 10-year TSY yields fell as much as 8.3bp to 3.465% and were trading at 3.47% last. Gains have been broadly maintained into early US session, with 10-year note futures trading near day’s high. Heavy US economic data slate includes PPI and retail sales, and Treasury auctions 20-year bonds. UK and German government bonds pared earlier advances to trade in the red as Treasury yields were richer by 3bp to 7bp across the curve with gains led by intermediates, flattening 2s10s spread by 4bp on the day; 10-year yields trade around 3.48% with bunds and gilts underperforming by 4bp and 7bp in the sector. Most gains in Treasuries were made during aggressive rally in JGBs after Bank of Japan policy announcement, which left benchmark JGB 10-year richer by around 8bp on the day. US Treasury auctions resume with $12b 20-year bond reopening at 1pm.

In commodities, crude futures rose with WTI adding 1.7% to trade near $81.50. Spot gold rises roughly $4 to trade near $1,913/oz

To the day ahead now, and data releases from the US include December’s PPI, retail sales and industrial production, whilst from the UK we’ll also get the December CPI release. From central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Villeroy, and the Fed’s Bostic, Harker and Logan. Lastly, the Fed will also be releasing their Beige Book.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures little changed at 4,012.00
  • MXAP up 0.5% to 166.79
  • MXAPJ up 0.3% to 546.45
  • Nikkei up 2.5% to 26,791.12
  • Topix up 1.7% to 1,934.93
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.5% to 21,678.00
  • Shanghai Composite little changed at 3,224.41
  • Sensex up 0.6% to 61,049.16
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 little changed at 7,393.36
  • Kospi down 0.5% to 2,368.32
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.1% to 457.14
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 2.10%
  • Euro up 0.6% to $1.0855
  • Brent Futures up 1.1% to $86.89/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.3% to $1,913.84
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.39% to 101.99

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • ECB policymakers are starting to consider a slower pace of interest-rate hikes than President Christine Lagarde indicated in December, according to officials with knowledge of their discussions
  • The BOJ standing pat caught some traders by surprise, but is unlikely to douse speculation that it will normalize policy as inflation in Japan accelerates and Governor Haruhiko Kuroda nears the end of his term
  • China’s top economic official told an audience of international billionaires and bankers that his country’s economy will likely rebound to its pre-pandemic growth trend this year after coronavirus infections passed their peak

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were positive albeit with price action mostly kept rangebound after the weak lead from Wall Street, while focus overnight centred on the BoJ policy announcement in which the central bank defied the increased speculation for a policy tweak. ASX 200 was flat with strength in the tech and consumer sectors offset by losses in commodity-related stocks. Nikkei 225 was boosted after the BoJ stuck with its ultra-easy policy settings and reaffirmed its dovish guidance. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were choppy but with strength in key tech names after China approved licences for 88 new games including titles from Tencent and NetEase in a further sign of an end to its tech crackdown.

Top Asian News

  • PBoC injected CNY 133bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate kept at 2.00% and injects CNY 447bln via 14-day reverse repos with the rate kept at 2.15% for a CNY 515bln net injection.
  • China’s NDRC’s said the economic development situation this year is still complicated, external environment is turbulent and pressure is still large, but it is confident and capable of promoting the continuous recovery and overall improvement of China’s economy, according to Reuters.
  • Hong Kong is expected to end its COVID mask mandate by March or April, according to sources cited by Ming Pao News.

European bourses are contained overall, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.1%, as the dovish BoJ fails to provide impetus. US futures are similarly steady ahead of earnings, data and Fed speak, ES +0.1%. Within Europe, sectors are mixed with marked outperformance in Tech after updates from Just Eat and ASM International.

Top European News

  • ECB’s Villeroy reaffirms that a European recession should be avoided in 2023, will bring inflation back to target around 2024/2025. Lagarde’s 50bp guidance remains valid. Will remain at the terminal rate for as long as is necessary; will go to the terminal by summer, not there yet.
  • UK Chancellor Hunt is reportedly planning a “slimmed down” spring budget which will not feature tax cuts within the statement, via The Guardian citing sources which add that there will be tax cuts before the next election, with the autumn statement the most likely point to announce such a change.
  • Germany is reportedly to narrowly avoid a 2023 recession, with price-adj. growth of 0.2%, via Reuters citing source/draft of the economic report; Inflation: 2023 6.0%, 2024 2.8%.
  • Magnitude 7.0 earthquake strikes off Sulawesi, Indonesia; Tsunami waves are possible for coasts located within 300km of Indonesia’s quake epicentre, Pacific Tsunami Centre says.
  • Ukraine Latest: Helicopter Crash Kills 18 People Near Kyiv
  • Sweden Boosts Capacity to Send Power South to Ease Supply Crunch
  • French Power Crunch This Winter Now Less Likely, Grid Says
  • Women Are Macron’s Biggest Critics on Pension Reform
  • BASF Drops After €7.3 Billion Russia Writedown Sparks Loss

BOJ

  • BoJ kept its policy settings unchanged with rates at -0.10% and YCC maintained to target 10yr JGBs at 0% via unanimous vote, while it kept the yield band and yield target unchanged. BoJ stuck with its forward guidance on interest rates and guidance that it will continue large-scale JGB buying and make nimble responses for each maturity, while it reiterated that it will not hesitate to take additional easing measures as necessary. Furthermore, the BoJ extended the fund operation to support financial lending by one year and the Outlook Report contained cuts to Real GDP growth forecasts and mostly upward revisions to Core CPI estimates, although fiscal 2023 and fiscal 2024 Core CPI forecasts remained below the 2% price goal.
  • BoJ Governor Kuroda (post-meeting press conference) says he is not expecting 10yr JGB yields to continue trading with yields above 0.5%, and there is no need to further expand its bond target band; today’s decision is not a change in BoJ’s monetary policy. It is still early days since the adjustment to yield bands made in December, BoJ needs more time to assess impact on market functions. YCC is fully sustainable, widening band has made YCC more sustainable. Important for FX rates to move stably, reflecting fundamentals; he has no specific comments on FX levels, noting that currency policy is the jurisdiction of the government.

FX

  • Yen yields gains made on the premise of further BoJ YCT adjustment as the Bank holds fire.
  • USD/JPY jumps to 131.57 from the low 128.00 area at one stage, DXY rebounds accordingly to 102.900 before sharp reversal on the back of strength elsewhere in the index.
  • Sterling extends on UK pay gains as services and core inflation top consensus, Cable breaches 1.2300 on the way to 1.2360+ peak.
  • Euro eyes resistance in the high 1.0800 zone as the Dollar recoils and Kiwi approaches 0.6500 and Aussie takes firmer hold of 0.7000 handle
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.7602 vs exp. 6.7644 (prev. 6.7222)

Fixed Income

  • Core benchmarks have picked off the European morning’s lows to near unchanged levels, but remain shy of overnight BoJ-inspired peaks.
  • The overnight BoJ derived upside seemingly fizzled out amid ECB’s Villeroy dismissing the dovish source reports and hot UK core CPI.
  • Stateside, USTs are holding firmer than their EGB peers ahead of a packed afternoon docket.

Commodities

  • Crude benchmarks are bid and have broken out of contained overnight ranges following the latest geopolitical rhetoric, lifting the complex to fresh YTD peaks.
  • WTI Feb’23 and Brent Mar’23 are at the top-end of USD 80.55-81.86/bbl and USD 86.13-87.43/bbl parameters, ranges that mark fresh YTD peaks for the complex, though, the benchmarks remain well within late-2022 extremes.
  • China’s NDRC warned iron ore trading companies and iron ore futures companies against price gouging and speculation, while it will step up supervision on iron ore’s spot and futures markets, according to Reuters.
  • IEA Oil Market Report: Demand set to increase by 1.9mln BPD to a record of 101.7mln BPD.
  • Spot gold is essentially unchanged and unable to derive much support from the Dollar’s weakness as the overall tone remains a tentative one post-BoJ.
  • Copper prices are bid this morning in the wake of disruption to Glencore’s Antapaccay copper mine in Peru, which is operating at restricted capacity amid anti-government protests, according to Reuters sources.

Geopolitics

  • US reportedly sends Ukraine US arms which were stored in Israel, according to NYT.
  • Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov says discussions with Ukraine President Zelenskiy are not possible; ready to respond to Western proposals on Ukraine but have not seen any serious proposals; adds, that they will have to take corresponding military measures if Finland/Sweden were to join NATO.
  • Ukrainian Minister of Internal Affairs has died in a helicopter crash near Kyiv, according to local journalists.
  • Serbian President Vucic says Crimea is Ukraine, and the EU path is the only one for Serbia.

US Event Calendar

  • 07:00: Jan. MBA Mortgage Applications 27.9%, prior 1.2%
  • 08:30: Dec. Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas, est. 0%, prior -0.2%
  • 08:30: Dec. PPI Final Demand MoM, est. -0.1%, prior 0.3%; YoY, est. 6.8%, prior 7.4%
    • PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.1%, prior 0.4%; YoY, est. 5.6%, prior 6.2%
  • 08:30: Dec. Retail Sales Advance MoM, est. -0.9%, prior -0.6%
    • Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM, est. -0.5%, prior -0.2%
    • Retail Sales Control Group, est. -0.3%, prior -0.2%
  • 09:15: Dec. Industrial Production MoM, est. -0.1%, prior -0.2%
  • 09:15: Dec. Capacity Utilization, est. 79.5%, prior 79.7%
  • 09:15: Dec. Manufacturing (SIC) Production, est. -0.2%, prior -0.6%
  • 10:00: Nov. Business Inventories, est. 0.4%, prior 0.3%
  • 10:00: Jan. NAHB Housing Market Index, est. 31, prior 31
  • 14:00: Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
  • 16:00: Nov. Total Net TIC Flows, prior $179.9b

Central Bank speakers

  • 09:00: Fed’s Bostic Makes Welcoming Remarks at Academic Conference
  • 14:00: Fed’s Harker Discusses the Economic Outlook
  • 14:00: Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
  • 17:00: Fed’s Logan Gives Speech in Austin

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

The big news overnight is that there is no big news overnight as the BoJ met economists expectation that they wouldn’t change anything on YCC today despite increasing market expectation that they would. The policy does seems unsustainable if current conditions persist though as since the last meeting on December 20th, they’ve spent $265bn (a whopping 6% of annual GDP!) buying bonds. Indeed, as George Saravelos pointed out yesterday there are some reports suggesting the BoJ may own more than 100% of some benchmark 10yr bonds. So not only has it bought the entire stock, but it has lent it out to short-sellers who have sold it back to the BoJ. Before the meeting our Japanese economists suggested that he does expect the BoJ to abandon YCC by the end of Q2 this year, but more around forces such as the “shunto” spring wage negotiations, a positive output gap and leadership changes at the bank.

It is clear from the market reaction that although economists expected no change the market was set up for one as the Yen has slumped -2.54% against the dollar, marking its biggest one-day drop since March 2020, trading at $131.42 as I type. Given this, the Nikkei (+2.45%) is leading gains across the region. Meanwhile, yields on 10yr Government Bonds tumbled well below policy cap, declining around -10bps, to trade at 0.40% following the central bank’s decision (they did dip to 0.36% immediately after). US 10yr Treasuries are -6bps lower on the back of the news.

The BOJ did enhance its YCC by expanding its fund-supply market operations by offering funds of up to 10 years against pooled collateral to financial institutions for both fixed- and variable-rate loans. This is hoped to ease pressure on the swaps market and help market function. We will see. The press conference is to come after we go to press, so we’ll see if that changes anything.

In the rest of Asia, equity markets are lower with the KOSPI (-0.69%) being the biggest underperformer followed by Chinese equities with the CSI (-0.22%) and the Hang Seng (-0.11%) both down whilst the Shanghai Composite (-0.03%) is just below flat. In overnight trading, US stock futures are edging higher with contracts on the S&P 500 (+0.12%) and NADAQ 100 (+0.17%) climbing after a weaker start.

Central banks were also driving markets yesterday ahead of the BoJ, with a strong European rally after Bloomberg reported that the ECB might go for a smaller 25bps hike in March following another 50bps move in February. Obviously this is just a report, but if true it would be significant, as it would be a slower pace than President Lagarde implied at the last meeting in December. Indeed, she said that “we should expect to raise interest rates at a 50 basis-point pace for a period of time”, so it would imply that this “period of time” could actually just be one meeting.

The article only said that 25bps in March was “gaining support”, but there were some massive market moves in response to its release. Investors immediately adjusted their expectations for ECB policy over the coming months, with the rate priced in by the June meeting down -9.3bps on the day. That led to a significant rally in sovereign bonds too, with yields on 10yr German bunds down -8.4bps, having fallen from 2.14% just before the report came out to an intraday low of 2.06% immediately after. That was echoed across the continent, with yields on 10yr OATs (-10.1bps) and BTPs (-12.6bps) falling by even larger margins, and it left the spread of 10yr Italian yields over bunds at just 180bps, their tightest level since April.

This buoyancy was seen amongst European equities as well, which continued their run as one of the top-performing assets of 2023. The STOXX 600 (+0.40%) and the DAX (+0.35%) both surged following the Bloomberg report, which brings their YTD gains to +7.43% and +9.07%, respectively. And for the DAX those gains mean the index is now at its highest level since mid-February, just before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began. Another factor helping to boost sentiment in Europe was the release of the latest ZEW survey from Germany. That saw a massive upside surprise in the expectations component for January, which came in at an 11-month high of 16.9 (vs. -15.0 expected), thus adding to the growing body of evidence on the brightening outlook in Europe.

Over in the US, the picture wasn’t quite as rosy as investors came back from holiday. Indeed, the S&P 500 (-0.20%) ended a run of 4 consecutive gains after weak earnings releases dampened risk appetite, with Goldman Sachs (-6.44%) as the second-worst performer in the entire S&P 500 after their earnings missed expectations. On the other hand, fellow major US bank Morgan Stanley (+5.91%) was the second-best performing S&P 500 member as the company beat expectations and pushed a rosier guidance than its peers. The best performer was Tesla (7.43%) which continues to have a rollercoaster time of it. Around this we also had the latest Empire State manufacturing survey for January, which fell to a new low for this cycle at -32.9 (vs. -8.6 expected). And apart from April and May 2020 at the height of the pandemic, that’s now the lowest reading for the survey since Q1 2009.

For US Treasuries there was also a relative underperformance with Europe, with the 10yr yield up +4.4bps to 3.547%. This has reversed overnight on the BoJ news mentioned at the top. The Fed’s next meeting just two weeks from now we start to come firmly into view now, where investors are placing a very high weight on a downshift in the pace of rate hikes to 25bps. It also comes as further posturing takes place ahead of US debt ceiling negotiations. Yesterday, House Speaker McCarthy called on Senate Democrats and the White House to discuss conditions on raising the debt ceiling such as changes to major entitlement programs and discretionary spending, while White House Press Secretary Jean-Pierre remained adamant that the Biden Administration would not be negotiating over the debt ceiling. Treasury Secretary Yellen told lawmakers late last week that the government would need to start using “extraordinary measures” by the end of this week in order to avoid running out of cash.

Elsewhere, UK gilts lagged slightly behind the rest of Europe with the 10yr yield “only” down -6.0bps. That followed UK labour market data that showed nominal wage running at +6.4% over the three months ending-November (vs. +6.2% expected). In turn, that led investors to raise the prospects of another 50bps hike from the BoE in February, with the hike priced in up +1.8bps on the day to 44.6bps.

In other news, oil prices continued their steady advance over recent days, with Brent crude (+1.73%) nearly closing above $86/bbl for the first time this year. That uptick in energy prices was seen more broadly as well, with European natural gas futures (+7.71%) coming off their 16-month low to close at €59.35 per megawatt-hour.

Lastly, at Davos yesterday, European Commission President von der Leyen said in a speech that in order “to keep European industry attractive, there is a need to be competitive with offers and incentives that are currently available outside the European Union”. That follows EU criticism of the recent Inflation Reduction Act in the US, which they consider to unfairly subsidise US firms. Our own European economists put out a note yesterday on the issue (link here) where they write the US legislation is probably more of an additional competitiveness shock to the EU, which could reinforce the energy crisis and the fear that high energy costs could linger for years. They also look at how the US policies might negatively impact the EU over different time horizons.

To the day ahead now, and data releases from the US include December’s PPI, retail sales and industrial production, whilst from the UK we’ll also get the December CPI release. From central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Villeroy, and the Fed’s Bostic, Harker and Logan. Lastly, the Fed will also be releasing their Beige Book.

AND NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)

BoJ stuck to its ultra-easy policy, busy US docket ahead – Newsquawk US Market Open

Newsquawk Logo

WEDNESDAY, JAN 18, 2023 – 06:39 AM

  • The BoJ defied some market bets and stuck with its ultra-easy policy settings and reaffirmed its dovish guidance.
  • European bourses are contained overall, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.1%, as the dovish BoJ fails to provide impetus with US futures similarly steady
  • USD/JPY jumps to 131.57 from the low 128.00 area at one stage, DXY rebounds accordingly to 102.900 before experiencing a sharp reversal
  • Core fixed benchmarks have picked off the European morning’s lows to near unchanged levels, but remain shy of overnight BoJ-inspired peaks.
  • Crude benchmarks are bid and have broken out of contained overnight ranges following the latest geopolitical rhetoric, lifting the complex to fresh YTD peaks.
  • Looking ahead, highlights include US Retail Sales & Industrial Production, Speeches from Fed’s Bostic, Bullard, Harker & Logan, Supply from the US, Earnings from Charles Schwab, Prologis & Kinder Morgan.

View the full premarket movers and news report. 

Or why not try Newsquawk’s squawk box free for 7 days?

BOJ

  • BoJ kept its policy settings unchanged with rates at -0.10% and YCC maintained to target 10yr JGBs at 0% via unanimous vote, while it kept the yield band and yield target unchanged. BoJ stuck with its forward guidance on interest rates and guidance that it will continue large-scale JGB buying and make nimble responses for each maturity, while it reiterated that it will not hesitate to take additional easing measures as necessary. Furthermore, the BoJ extended the fund operation to support financial lending by one year and the Outlook Report contained cuts to Real GDP growth forecasts and mostly upward revisions to Core CPI estimates, although fiscal 2023 and fiscal 2024 Core CPI forecasts remained below the 2% price goal.
  • BoJ Governor Kuroda (post-meeting press conference) says he is not expecting 10yr JGB yields to continue trading with yields above 0.5%, and there is no need to further expand its bond target band; today’s decision is not a change in BoJ’s monetary policy. It is still early days since the adjustment to yield bands made in December, BoJ needs more time to assess impact on market functions. YCC is fully sustainable, widening band has made YCC more sustainable. Important for FX rates to move stably, reflecting fundamentals; he has no specific comments on FX levels, noting that currency policy is the jurisdiction of the government.
  • Click here for more detail.

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

  • European bourses are contained overall, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.1%, as the dovish BoJ fails to provide impetus.
  • US futures are similarly steady ahead of earnings, data and Fed speak, ES +0.1%.
  • Within Europe, sectors are mixed with marked outperformance in Tech after updates from Just Eat and ASM International.
  • Click here for more detail.

FX

  • Yen yields gains made on the premise of further BoJ YCT adjustment as the Bank holds fire.
  • USD/JPY jumps to 131.57 from the low 128.00 area at one stage, DXY rebounds accordingly to 102.900 before sharp reversal on the back of strength elsewhere in the index.
  • Sterling extends on UK pay gains as services and core inflation top consensus, Cable breaches 1.2300 on the way to 1.2360+ peak.
  • Euro eyes resistance in the high 1.0800 zone as the Dollar recoils and Kiwi approaches 0.6500 and Aussie takes firmer hold of 0.7000 handle
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.7602 vs exp. 6.7644 (prev. 6.7222)
  • Click here for more detail.

FIXED INCOME

  • Core benchmarks have picked off the European morning’s lows to near unchanged levels, but remain shy of overnight BoJ-inspired peaks.
  • The overnight BoJ derived upside seemingly fizzled out amid ECB’s Villeroy dismissing the dovish source reports and hot UK core CPI.
  • Stateside, USTs are holding firmer than their EGB peers ahead of a packed afternoon docket.
  • Click here for more detail.

COMMODITIES

  • Crude benchmarks are bid and have broken out of contained overnight ranges following the latest geopolitical rhetoric, lifting the complex to fresh YTD peaks.
  • WTI Feb’23 and Brent Mar’23 are at the top-end of USD 80.55-81.86/bbl and USD 86.13-87.43/bbl parameters, ranges that mark fresh YTD peaks for the complex, though, the benchmarks remain well within late-2022 extremes.
  • China’s NDRC warned iron ore trading companies and iron ore futures companies against price gouging and speculation, while it will step up supervision on iron ore’s spot and futures markets, according to Reuters.
  • IEA Oil Market Report: Demand set to increase by 1.9mln BPD to a record of 101.7mln BPD.
  • Spot gold is essentially unchanged and unable to derive much support from the Dollar’s weakness as the overall tone remains a tentative one post-BoJ.
  • Copper prices are bid this morning in the wake of disruption to Glencore’s Antapaccay copper mine in Peru, which is operating at restricted capacity amid anti-government protests, according to Reuters sources.
  • Click here for more detail.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

  • ECB’s Villeroy reaffirms that a European recession should be avoided in 2023, will bring inflation back to target around 2024/2025. Lagarde’s 50bp guidance remains valid. Will remain at the terminal rate for as long as is necessary; will go to the terminal by summer, not there yet.
  • UK Chancellor Hunt is reportedly planning a “slimmed down” spring budget which will not feature tax cuts within the statement, via The Guardian citing sources which add that there will be tax cuts before the next election, with the autumn statement the most likely point to announce such a change.
  • Germany is reportedly to narrowly avoid a 2023 recession, with price-adj. growth of 0.2%, via Reuters citing source/draft of the economic report; Inflation: 2023 6.0%, 2024 2.8%.
  • Magnitude 7.0 earthquake strikes off Sulawesi, Indonesia; Tsunami waves are possible for coasts located within 300km of Indonesia’s quake epicentre, Pacific Tsunami Centre says.

NOTABLE DATA

  • UK CPI YY (Dec) 10.5% vs. Exp. 10.5% (Prev. 10.7%); MM (Dec) 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 0.4%)
  • UK Core CPI YY (Dec) 6.3% vs. Exp. 6.2% (Prev. 6.3%); MM (Dec) 0.5% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 0.3%)
  • UK ONS HousePrice Index (Nov) 10.3% Y/Y vs. Exp. 10.3% (prev. 12.6%)

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

  • IMF Deputy Managing Director Gopinath says upcoming World Economic Outlook forecasts will be similar to the prior update.
  • US Treasury Secretary Yellen sees a pressing need to the US and China to closely communicate; misunderstandings mustn’t worsen US-Sino relations; Chinese Vice Premier Liu He tells Yellen that the two sides need serious communication and coordination on climate change, macroeconomic and other issues.
  • Click here for the US Early Morning note.

GEOPOLITICS

  • US reportedly sends Ukraine US arms which were stored in Israel, according to NYT.
  • Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov says discussions with Ukraine President Zelenskiy are not possible; ready to respond to Western proposals on Ukraine but have not seen any serious proposals; adds, that they will have to take corresponding military measures if Finland/Sweden were to join NATO.
  • Ukrainian Minister of Internal Affairs has died in a helicopter crash near Kyiv, according to local journalists.
  • Serbian President Vucic says Crimea is Ukraine, and the EU path is the only one for Serbia.

CRYPTO

  • Coinbase (COIN) says it has made the decision to halt operations within Japan, customers will have until February 16th to withdraw their holdings.

APAC TRADE

  • APAC stocks were positive albeit with price action mostly kept rangebound after the weak lead from Wall Street, while focus overnight centred on the BoJ policy announcement in which the central bank defied the increased speculation for a policy tweak.
  • ASX 200 was flat with strength in the tech and consumer sectors offset by losses in commodity-related stocks.
  • Nikkei 225 was boosted after the BoJ stuck with its ultra-easy policy settings and reaffirmed its dovish guidance.
  • Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were choppy but with strength in key tech names after China approved licences for 88 new games including titles from Tencent and NetEase in a further sign of an end to its tech crackdown.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

  • PBoC injected CNY 133bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate kept at 2.00% and injects CNY 447bln via 14-day reverse repos with the rate kept at 2.15% for a CNY 515bln net injection.
  • China’s NDRC’s said the economic development situation this year is still complicated, external environment is turbulent and pressure is still large, but it is confident and capable of promoting the continuous recovery and overall improvement of China’s economy, according to Reuters.
  • Hong Kong is expected to end its COVID mask mandate by March or April, according to sources cited by Ming Pao News.

DATA RECAP

  • Japanese Machinery Orders MM (Nov) -8.3% vs. Exp. -0.9% (Prev. 5.4%); YY (Nov) -3.7% vs. Exp. 2.4% (Prev. 0.4%)

 

1.c WEDNESDAY/  TUESDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 0.16 PTS OR 0.00%   //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 100368 PTS OR 0.47%     /The Nikkei closed UP 652.44 PTS OR 2.50%            //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.16%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP TO 6.7538//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP TO 6.7594//    /Oil UP TO 81.63 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 87.17   / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN         ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER

2 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/

///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

end

2B JAPAN

Japan//Yield curve announcement

PAY SPECIAL ATTENTION TO THE JAPANESE SITUATION

TONIGHT KURODA FAILED TO ADJUST THE YIELD CURVE AND THUS IT WILL BE OPEN TO ATTACK IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS/WEEKS.

JAPANESE GOVERNMENT SENT IN THE CAVALRY LAST NIGHT…  TO KEEP THE 10 YR YIELD AT .50%. IT FINISHED THEIR SESSION AT .414%.

 THE VALUE OF THE YEN FELL TO 129.74.  DESPITE THE HUGE INCREASE IN PRINTING OF MONEY, THE CROOKS  INITIALLY KNOCKED GOLD DOWN BUT IT RECOVERED NICELY THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. WHERE IT SITS ABOVE TUESDAY’S CLOSE.

OF INTEREST THE CENTRAL BANK OF JAPAN OWNS 54% OF ALL OUTSTANDING DEBT

THE B. OF JAPAN IS PURCHASING AROUND 200 -300 BILLION DOLLARS WORTH OF YEN BONDS PER MONTH.

AT THIS RATE, THE BANK OF JAPAN WILL EXHAUST ALL BONDS IN 33 WEEKS.

THEN WHAT? I HAVE NO IDEA!!

(ZEROHEDGE)

“Nothing Short Of Unsustainable”: Futures Soar, Yen Tumbles After BOJ Maintains Yield Curve Control

TUESDAY, JAN 17, 2023 – 10:06 PM

Ahead of today’s BOJ decision the market was on edge that one month after the December YCC “huge shock” when the central bank unexpectedly widened its Yield Curve Control band from +/-0.25% to +/-0.50%, in the process sparking a historic surge in the yen and explosion in bond market volatility, that outgoing BOJ governor Kuroda would double down and tweak the BOJ’s Yield Curve Control for the second time, especially after a report by Japan’s Yomiuri leaked last week that another adjustment was imminent.

And while most economists expected a hold by the BOJ, an unusually high number said they can’t rule out an adjustment to yield curve controls like the one that roiled markets last month, which is also why traders were betting on dramatic swings of 2% or more in favor of either the dollar or yen.

In the end, it all ended up being one giant nothinburger, because moments ago the BOJ reported that contrary to its own leaks a week ago, it maintained the YCC as before at 0.50%, while maintaining all other aspects of monetary policy as before (JGB yield target at 0% and policy rate at -0.1%, both targets which are completely incompatible with Japan’s soaring inflation). The BOJ also stated its intention to continue large-scale bond buying and to increase them on a flexible basis as it showed its intention to double down on defense of its yield curve control program for now.

While the YCC was the main highlight – and here there were no changes to either the YCC band or targets –  here are details on some of the other aspects of today’s BOJ decision:

  • Extends by one year fund operation to support financial institutions’ lending
  • No change to forward guidance on interest rates
  • Expands fund supply operation against pooled collateral
  • Maintains guidance that it will continue large-scale JGB buying, make nimble responses for each maturity

Forecasts:

  • Core-core cpi median forecast for fiscal 2023 at +1.8%vs +1.6% in October
  • Core-core cpi median forecast for fiscal 2024 at +1.6% vs +1.6% in October
  • Real GDP median forecast for fiscal 2023 at +1.7% vs +1.9 % in October
  • Real GDP median forecast for fiscal 2024 at +1.1% vs +1.5% in October

BOJ Quarterly report”

  • Prices to deviate upward in fiscal 2024
  • Uncertainty over japanese economy extremely high
  • Need to pay close attention to effects of financial, currency market movements on japan’s economy and prices
  • Price outlook skewed to upside
  • inflation expection is on the rise
  • heightening of price growth is likely to sustainable price increase involving wage hikes
  • there’s a risk global economy could deviate downward due to capital outflow from emerging markets and tightening of global financial conditions
  • prices could deviate downwardly as wage hikes won’t strengthen as expected
  • need to pay close attention to impact of elevated global inflation, rapid currency fluctuations on Japan’s prices
  • it takes time but prices will gradually rise towards inflation target on the back of rises in inflation expectations and wage rises

The full text of the BOJ decision can be found here.

So what happened and why did the BOJ just burn through more than $200BN in bond stabilization liquidity over the past month for nothing? Perhaps Kuroda got cold feet after seeing the historic volatility in the JGB market when YCC cracked on several occasions in just the past week, and forced the BOJ to inject record amounts of cash just to keep the JGB market from imploding. Indeed, as shown in the chart below, while Kuroda insisted that December’s YCC tweak was aimed to improve market functioning, it only fueled speculation over more changes.

Whatever the reason, the BOJ chickened out, and in the process has only accelerated the inevitable collapse of its own unsustainable policy, and as Vanda Research’s Viraj Patel writes, “bond buying is nothing short of unsustainable” and its “only a matter of time before they lose control of JGB markets….Will be an opportunity for JGB bears to go again… ’23 forecast for core CPI at 1.8% looks low JPY”

And while the market welcomed today’s retreat by the BOJ, with equity futures spiking…

.. alongside bonds…

… while the yen tumbled by over 200pips as the dovish move means the BOJ will have to print and inject trillions more to support the artificially low yield on the 10Y.

Finally, today’s lack of action simply ensures much more volatility in the coming days as bears will aggressively hammer the 10Y sending its yield surging ever higher, which in turn will force the BOJ to intervene even more aggressively, guaranteeing much more fireworks before Kuroda steps down in April.

end

JAPAN

From Jim Grant of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer

(Gisiger/Market ch.//JOM Grant)

partially edited…

Jim Grant Warns “Japan Is Perhaps The Most Important Risk In The World”

TUESDAY, JAN 17, 2023 – 06:20 PM

Authored by Christoph Gisiger via TheMarket.ch,

Speculation is mounting that the Bank of Japan is losing control of the bond market. Jim Grant, editor of «Grant’s Interest Rate Observer», believes this could trigger a shock to the global financial system. He also explains why he expects further surges in inflation and why gold should be part of your portfolio.

The news caught markets off guard: On December 20th, the Bank of Japan surprisingly extended the target range for the yield on ten-year government bonds to plus/minus 0.5%. A move that not a single economist had expected.

This week, the Bank of Japan could announce a major policy shift amid rising government bond yields and a strengthening yen. Although barely a month has passed since the BoJ’s last meeting, the bond market is already testing the new upper limit of the yield curve control regime.

«To us, Japanese interest rate policy resembles the Berlin Wall of the late Cold War era, a stale anachronism that must sooner or later fall,» says Jim Grant. For the editor of the iconic investment bulletin «Grants’ Interest Rate Observer,» recent developments in Japan pose an underestimated risk to global financial markets. Not least because virtually no one is talking about it.

In an in-depth interview with The Market NZZ, which has been slightly edited for clarity, Mr. Grant explains what it means for financial markets if the Bank of Japan is forced to scrap its yield curve control policy. But first, he says why he doesn’t believe inflation will end soon, why bonds may be at the start of a long bear market, and why he believes gold is the best choice as a store of value.

«If the past is prologue and if the great bond bull market is over, then on form, we are looking at what could be a very prolonged and perhaps gradual move higher in interest rates»: Jim Grant.

Where could such an accident occur?

I think Japan is perhaps the most important risk in the world, not least because it is among the least discussed risks, certainly in the Western press. Mostly, it’s very much an afterthought. The risk is this: Every business day, the Bank of Japan is spending tens of billions of dollars worth of yen to enforce governor Kuroda’s yield curve interest rates suppression program. To put this into perspective: In the UK, when the little crisis over liability driven pension investing in late September happened, the Bank of England spent around $5 billion. The BoJ does that before breakfast.

The Bank of Japan already introduced its policy of yield curve control in the fall of 2016 by keeping the yield on ten-year government bonds within a target range through direct interventions in the bond market. Why should it change its monetary policy now?

Governor Kuroda, who’s term is up on April 8, insists that yield curve control is here to stay. But to us, Japanese interest rate policy resembles the Berlin Wall of the late Cold War era, a stale anachronism that must sooner or later fall.

And why specifically now?

What’s different is that the market is on to something. I say that because the Bank of Japan has already lifted the allowable ceiling on ten-year JGB yields to 0.5% from 0.25% at the end of last year. Kuroda said it was nothing more than a means to the end of ensuring the success and stability of a permanent regime of yield suppression. But the market is like a very ill-behaved dog at the end of a leash. It’s wheezing and frothing, and the Bank of Japan is yanking ever harder and tighter to control this beast.

Why do you think this beast will finally break free?

Kuroda stated that the Bank of Japan is not going to stop until there is inflation. Well, Tokyo’s consumer prices which precede the national CPI rose to 4% in December versus expectations of 3.8%. What’s more, Uniqlo and other corporate leaders are out announcing that they are raising wages significantly. You will find other stories to this effect, signs and precursors of a change. Some former governors of the Bank of Japan are now venting their views that this has gone far enough and the consequences will be devastating. So I think this is a huge risk just offstage and the world has to pay closer attention to it.

What’s the risk if the Bank of Japan gives up control of the yield curve?

What makes it a risk for everybody, whether you are Swiss, American, German or Japanese, are two things. First of all, suppressed rates prompt leveraged individual and corporate balance sheets which at the shock of a rise in interest rates will get into trouble. There are troubles buried in the financial statements of Japanese companies that have borrowed too much. Sure, Japanese businesses are not as inclined as, say, American ones to borrow excessively, but there are also risks regarding a lot of bank saving schemes or structured products in Japan. For instance, you get a yield of 0.75% for five years, but in the fine print there is some caveat that if rates go above a certain level then the duration of this product extends to ten years. I’m making these numbers up, but it’s essentially what the risk is.

And what is the second risk?

The Japanese are a frisky nation. They have an immense amount of net savings, and some $3 trillion of Japanese assets are invested in non-Japanese markets, of which half are domiciled in the United States. In other words, the Japanese, the proverbial Mrs. Watanabe, search the world for yield opportunities. According to Bloomberg, expressed as a percentage of the GDP of the country in which they are invested, Japanese stock and bond holdings break down to 7.3% of America, 7.5% of France, 8.3% of Australia and 9.5% of the Netherlands. What is going to happen if suddenly Japanese yen denominated rates become rather attractive? Well, a lot of this money may be repatriated and the result of that repatriation will be a rise in volatility in markets we can’t really identify now. So the risk of a volatility upsurge is considerable. I think the time is getting ripe for a big change in Japanese rates structure and therefore in interest rates and in the risk presented to bond holders worldwide.

What is your advice to investors in this environment?

Having just mocked the central banks for their pretending to know what they can’t know, I’m in a very compromised position if I were to say what is going to happen. But allow me to suggest that I’m somewhat of a broken record on gold. I’m going to continue with this broken record and observe that people have not yet come to terms with the essential inherent weaknesses of the monetary system that has been in place since 1971. We have all gotten used to it. I mean, you have to be a person of a certain age, indeed you have to be as old as I am, to really recall the debates surrounding the abandonment of Bretton Woods. People have grown up with the idea that money is what they print, and if the Japanese can print $50 billion a day with which to suppress interest rates, that doesn’t shock many people. But I think such shocks do lay ahead.

And gold can help protect a portfolio against such shocks?

I think that the strains that are already obvious will become more so. People will be looking around not for a better brand of paper or digital money, but rather for the real McCoy. In every issue of «Grant’s» we have something to say about a stock, so I don’t want to sound too much of a nutcase. We do live in the real world. But when I look at the very big picture, the money the central banks produce in such profusion is unsound. It may not be now, but in time, people will look around for an alternative and that alternative may just be gold – the thing that has been more or less a shadow cast by Bitcoin, Ethereum, and all the other crypto currencies.

Against this background, how do you assess the general outlook for the stock market?

The market has come down from extremely overvalued to nearly expensive, and my observation is that an extremely overvalued market does not normally bottom out at nearly expensive. So I’m not sure that’s the end of things. I don’t find a whole lot of compelling values in the stock market. Sometimes, one has great conviction, but not now with regard to stocks for me.

Are there any exceptions that appear attractive from a value perspective?

In one of our recent issues, we had a story on Transocean. The stock had a little move, it’s gone up from $2.50 to $5 or something in that order, but we’re still bullish. It’s a high-tech story. The technology happens to pertain to fossil fuels, therefore it’s beyond the pale for «properly sensitive fiduciaries» to put it this way. But it is a very impressive business which happens to have the flaw of a highly leveraged balance sheet. So there is considerable risk, but I think the risk is less compelling now than the reward. So if you ask about something to be bullish on, I would suggest Transocean.

END

3c CHINA /

CHINA/ECONOMY

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS/UK AFFAIRS//

ITALY

Italian lawmaker,Panzeri, at the centre of the EU\s Qatargate scandal. He has agreed to tell all

(zerohedge)

Italian Lawmaker At Center Of EU’s Qatargate Scandal Agrees To Spill Beans

WEDNESDAY, JAN 18, 2023 – 02:45 AM

One of the handful of EU officials at the center of the Qatargate scandal which emerged last month and shook confidence in European Parliament decision-making is going to spill the beans, in what looks to be a breakthrough for investigators amid what’s widely considered “the most egregious case” of corruption the body has seen in years.

According to Politico on Tuesday, “Pier Antonio Panzeri, a former Italian EU lawmaker detained in the European Parliament corruption probe, has struck a plea deal with the Belgian prosecutor to exchange information about bribes he made in exchange for a reduced sentence.”Former Italian EU lawmaker Pier Antonio Panzeri, via La Libre

This means that likely for the first time the specifics of how the Qataris hoped to shape debate and outcomes in European Parliament will be revealed. 

Reportedly Panzeri has said he’s ready to disclose financial arrangements and which countries and officials were involved, as well as who benefited. The other country likely to be named is Morocco

Panzeri is currently in jail and as of Tuesday morning he had withdrawn his appeal of provisional detention. He’s facing charges related to criminal organization, money laundering and corruption. 

The former MEP’s daughter, Silvia Panzeri, is also being investigated for allegedly being aware of, or even possibly complicit in her father’s activities. 

Other high-level suspects are Greek MEP Eva Kaili, her partner Francesco Giorgi, and lobbyist Niccolò Figà-Talamanca. As a result of the scandal, which was revealed after police raids on multiple offices and homes (including a hotel) in Brussels turned up stacks of cash totaling around €1.5m (£1.3m), Kaili was swiftly removed as a vice-president of the Parliament.Belgian police last month released images of stashes of cash uncovered connected with raids on the offices and homes of MEP’s offices. 

The governments of Qatar and Morocco, as well as now former vice-president of the Parliament Kaili, have all vehemently denied wrongdoing. There may be more officials that are named as a result of Panzeri’s pending deal.

The BBC notes that “Mr Panzeri’s reference to unknown people within the investigation suggests more revelations are due to emerge.”

The report says that “Belgian prosecutors have already sought to lift the immunity of two more centre-left MEPs. Belgian Marc Tarabella and Andrea Cozzolino from Italy.” Thus the scope of the scandal could expand as Panzeri hands the prosecutor more information and specifics of corruption involving EU lawmakers.

END

GERMANY/THE NETHERLANDS

My goodness! 500 ATMs blow up by migrant gangs in Germany in 2022.  Also Holland has the same problem

(/John Cody/Remix)

500 ATMs Blown-Up By Migrant Gangs In Germany In 2022, Setting New Record

WEDNESDAY, JAN 18, 2023 – 05:00 AM

Authored by John Cody via Remix News,

Organized criminal gangs active in the Netherlands and France, mostly made up of Moroccan migrants, are blowing up ATMs in Germany at a record pace in highly professional robbery operations. In 2022, government statistics indicate that they blew up 500 such machines, with statistically more than one machine being blown up every day.

Cash remains popular with Germans, and to feed this demand, banks operate nearly 100,000 ATMs located throughout the country, with the machines routinely containing between €50,000 and €100,000. Criminal gangs are taking advantage of this, and they are willing to use extreme methods to gain access to this money. These criminal networks are said to meticulously plan their operations out, including initial surveillance, demolition, and the getaway. Police also say they act with brutality and ruthlessness, putting human lives at risk.

In fact, these migrant gangs are blowing up banks with such powerful explosives, that they are destroying entire buildings. In some cases, they have blown bank vault doors up to 30 meters away, underlining how powerful these blasts can be. Police say the danger facing Germans is unprecedented, as many of these banks are located in residential buildings.

Record number of cases

Although the final number of such bank heists has not yet been released for 2022, according to police sources obtained by Welt Am Sonntag, there were 500 such attacks, reaching a record high. Germany’s interior ministry is now holding high-level meetings on the issue, but it appears the robbery crews show little sign of slowing down. In 2021, the Federal Criminal Police reported that there were 414 cases of attempted or successful demolitions, while 2020 saw similar numbers.

Authorities describe how the gangs are most active in the west of Germany, with the most populous state, North-Rhine Westphalia, along with Lower Saxony, the most popular targets. For one, these regions are the closest states to the Netherlands, where the gangs are most active — although some gangs also operate out of France, which is also nearby.

How do the gangs operate?

The gangs tend to target banks located close to major motorways in order to make a quick getaway, with most banks targeted in the early morning hours when the roads are mostly empty.

They usually work in teams with each member playing a specific role. In one case near the small town of Heusenstamm in Hesse, the gang doused garbage bins in gasoline and set them on fire in the middle of the road, effectively creating a roadblock for both lanes of traffic. This roadblock would later hinder the police from pursuing the getaway vehicle.

Another two men, wearing face masks and tracksuits, pried the door open of the Commerzbank. They were filmed breaking open the ATM’s cash slots and then using a hose to fill the machine with acetylene and oxygen, which serve as the two ingredients for their bomb. Another individual who then detonated the bomb was in a BMW 320d behind the bank.

The men worked “with the precision and speed of a racing team at a pit stop,” according to Welt.

However, that is just one incident. Such explosions are rocking Germany nearly every night, and often the damage is far worse than thousands of euros lost from the machines.

A report from Die Welt details how powerful explosions have badly damaged buildings and led to residents being evacuated from their homes. Videos of explosions in buildings, supermarkets, and other public spaces routinely run on German news the next morning.

In one court trial for a gang member police managed to arrest, a judge from Hesse described “war-like damage” in German inner cities during sentencing. Police investigators from the prosecutor’s office described the gang as conducting “explosive attacks in public spaces.”

As a result, the line between robbery and terrorism is beginning to blur in such cases.

“It’s a miracle that there haven’t been any deaths yet,” says Swen Eigenbrodt, the lead investigator of a special new unit in the Hessian State Criminal Police Office (LKA). The unit has been actively targeting the gangs who have participated in the ATM heists seen in the state.

Some perpetrators have been brought into custody, often through small but legally devastating mistakes. For example, some have left fingerprints at the scene, others have been caught by speed-trap cameras while trying to race away from the scene, and sometimes they are apprehended with their smartphones, which provide movement data. Nevertheless, an arrest at the scene of the crime is very rare, as the teams move so fast, and despite some arrests, there are enough teams active that the demolitions continue to rise.

Utrecht is a hotspot

The Dutch city of Utrecht is prosperous, but it also faces pockets of poverty and in some neighborhoods, up to 60 percent of the population has a migration background. Now, Dutch and German law enforcement are working together to stop these organized gangs, as many of them come from this city.

Dutch criminologist Cyrille Fijnaut, a professor emeritus, has been observing these ATM heist crews for 20 years and actively advises the Dutch government. He said that the network of criminals consists of about 200 to 400 young men and that “many of them have Moroccan roots.” He said they often follow in the footsteps of older boys in their neighborhoods, who sport expensive watches and sports cars.

A few years ago, one of the top gang bosses set up his own training center for ATM demolition crews. He simply rented out a factory building, ordered discarded ATMs online, and began training members in what served as a sort of school for gang members. However, these criminal networks are also active in cities such as Amsterdam and Alkmaar.

A famed Dutch defense lawyer, Vito Shukrula, also said that these types of heists are actually used as “seed” money to enter into the Dutch cocaine trade. He described it as “easy money” for these teams.

As Remix News has previously reported, the Moroccan Mafia earns billions in revenue every year from the drug trade in the Netherlands. The criminal group has assassinated not only rivals, but also state witnesses and even journalists. The group has become so feared that 18-year-old Dutch Princess Amalia went into hiding over credible kidnapping and assassination threats just months ago. Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte has also beefed up his security due to threats from the group.

end

UK/ECONOMY/REAL ESTATE SECTOR

EUROPE/WEATHER

Seems that the crisis is over as gas stocks are at seasonal record highs

(John Kemp)

Crisis Over? Europe’s Gas Stocks At Seasonal Record High

WEDNESDAY, JAN 18, 2023 – 03:30 AM

By John Kemp, senior energy market analyst

Northwest Europe is half-way through the winter heating season and gas inventories are at a record high following an extended period of exceptionally mild temperatures since the middle of December.

Preparation and luck have combined to rescue Europe from potential gas shortages this winter: 

  • Preparation by policymakers and forward-looking gas markets ensured inventories began the winter season at the one of the highest levels on record.
  • Market-driven high prices have significantly reduced gas and electricity consumption by major industrial customers and more modestly by residential and commercial users.
  • Luck in the form of exceptionally mild weather has transformed comfortable stocks in mid-December into plentiful inventories by mid-January.

At Frankfurt in Germany, a proxy for the densely populated northwest Europe mega-region, half of winter heating demand occurs on average on or before January 15.

On January 15, inventories across the European Union and the United Kingdom amounted to 922 terawatt-hours (TWh), according to Gas Infrastructure Europe (“Aggregated gas storage inventory”, GIE, January 17).

Stocks were 268 TWh (+41% or +2.57 standard deviations) above the prior ten-year average, up from a surplus of 173 TWh (+23% or +1.58 standard deviations) when the warm spell began on December 19 and 92 TWh (+10% or +0.86 standard deviations) at the start of the winter season on October 1.

Heating demand started this winter close to the long-term average, with an unusually mild October offset by colder-than-normal temperatures in the first part of December. By December 19, Frankfurt had experienced a total of 675 heating degree days, very close to the long-term average of 682.

Between December 19 and January 15, however, the region experienced an exceptional and extended period of much warmer temperatures that reduced heating demand significantly.

Frankfurt experienced an additional 184 heating degree days, the lowest this century, and compared with a seasonal average of 341.

Cumulative heating demand so far this winter was 20% below the long-term seasonal average by January 15 compared with a 5% deficit by December 19.

As a result of mild weather, gas inventories depleted by just 18 TWh over the 27 days ending on January 15, compared with an average ten-year depletion of 113 TWh.

EMERGENCY OVER

Stocks are now projected to fall to a low of 612 TWh before winter ends, up from a projected low of 518 TWh on December 19 and 440 TWh when the winter season started on October 1.

Inventories are on course to end the winter at the highest level on record, with storage sites still more than 54% full.

Prices have already slumped to redirect more liquefied natural gas (LNG) to other regions of the world, encourage more consumption in Europe and stem inventory accumulation.

Futures prices for deliveries in March 2023 have halved to €56 per megawatt-hour from €110 on December 19 and €177 at the start of winter.

Lower prices will buy back some consumption lost earlier this winter from the most price-sensitive customers directly exposed to wholesale markets, mostly power producers and energy-intensive industrial users.

Gas-fired electricity generators are likely to operate for more hours at the expense of coal-fired and fuel oil-fired competitors, absorbing some of the surplus. Manufacturers of fertilizer, iron and steel, ceramics, glass and chemicals, as well as non-ferrous smelters, are likely to restart some idled capacity if prices remain lower.

Futures for gas delivered to Northwest Europe are now trading at a discount to gas delivered to Northeast Asia, from a premium over €11 per megawatt-hour on December 19 and almost €43 at the beginning of winter.

Relatively lower European prices should reduce the incentive to maximise LNG inflows and redirect more gas to importers in East and South Asia, which will also limit the further build up of a surplus in Europe.

END

END

5.UKRAINE RUSSIA//MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

RUSSIA/IRAN

Iran and Russia are set to issue Stablecoin backed by gold

(Helen Partz/CoinTelegraph)

Iran And Russia Want To Issue Stablecoin Backed By Gold; Report

WEDNESDAY, JAN 18, 2023 – 06:30 AM

Authored by Helen Partz via CoinTelegraph.com,

The potential stablecoin aims to enable cross-border transactions instead of fiat currencies like the U.S. dollar, the Russian ruble or the Iranian rial…

The Central Bank of Iran is reportedly cooperating with the Russian government to jointly issue a new cryptocurrency backed by gold.

According to the Russian news agency Vedomosti, Iran is working with Russia to create a “token of the Persian Gulf region” that would serve as a payment method in foreign trade.

The token is projected to be issued in the form of a stablecoin backed by gold, according to Alexander Brazhnikov, executive director of the Russian Association of Crypto Industry and Blockchain.

The stablecoin aims to enable cross-border transactions instead of fiat currencies like the United States dollar, the Russian ruble or the Iranian rial. The report notes that the potential cryptocurrency would operate in a special economic zone in Astrakhan, where Russia started to accept Iranian cargo shipments.

Russian lawmaker Anton Tkachev, a member of the Committee on Information Policy, Information Technology and Communications, stressed that a joint stablecoin project would only be possible once the digital asset market is fully regulated in Russia. After multiple delays, the Russian lower house of parliament once again promised to start regulating crypto transactions in 2023.

Iran and Russia are among the countries that banned their residents from using cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and stablecoins like Tether (USDT) for payments. At the same time, Iran and Russia have been actively working to adopt crypto as a tool of foreign trade.

In August 2022, Iran’s Industry, Mines and Trade Ministry approved the use of cryptocurrency for imports into the country amid ongoing international trade sanctions. The local government said the new measures would help Iran mitigate global trade sanctions. Iran subsequently placed its first international import order using $10 million worth of crypto.

The Bank of Russia — historically opposed to using crypto as a payment method — agreed to allow crypto in foreign trade to mitigate the impact of international sanctions. The regulator has never clarified which cryptocurrencies would be used for such transactions though.

end

RUSSIA/CHINA/PETROYUAN/

Please listen to the interview:

(zerohedge)

Poszar Was Right: Saudis Confirm Non-Dollar Oil Trade Plans In Davos

WEDNESDAY, JAN 18, 2023 – 10:05 AM

Earlier this month, former NY Fed repo guru Zoltan Pozsar wrote one of his most important reports of 2022, in which he described how Putin could unleash hell on the Western financial system by demanding that instead of dollars, Russian oil exporters are paid in gold, effectively pegging oil to gold and launching Petrogold.

Then, China’s President Xi visit with Saudi and GCC leaders marked the birth of the petroyuan and a leap in China’s growing encumbrance of OPEC+’s oil and gas reserves: that’s because with the China-GCC Summit, “China can now claim to have built a ‘special relationship’ not only with the ‘+’ sign in OPEC+ (Russia), but with Iran and all of OPEC+.”

At the time, Zoltan urged the reader to think of the timing of this statement in a diplomatic sense:

“President Xi communicated his message on “renminbi invoicing” not during the first day of his visit – when he met only the Saudi leadership – but during the second day of his visit – when he met the leadership of all the GCC countries – to signal the following:

GCC oil flowing East + renminbi invoicing = the dawn of the petroyuan.

And now, according to Bloomberg, Saudi Arabia is open to discussions about trade in currencies other than the US dollar, according to the kingdom’s finance minister.

“There are no issues with discussing how we settle our trade arrangements, whether it is in the US dollar, whether it is the euro, whether it is the Saudi riyal,” Mohammed Al-Jadaan told Bloomberg TV on Tuesday in an interview in Davos.

“I don’t think we are waving away or ruling out any discussion that will help improve the trade around the world,” Al-Jadaan said.

And echoing Poszar’s comments above, Al-Jadaan appeared to confirm The Kingdom’s goal seeking to strengthen its relationship with crucial trade partners, most notably China:

We enjoy a very strategic relationship with China and we enjoy that same strategic relationship with other nations including the US and we want to develop that with Europe and other countries who are willing and able to work with us,” Al-Jadaan said.

Saudi Arabia is also working with multilateral institutions to provide support to Pakistan, Turkey and Egypt, as part of the kingdom’s largesse to nations it deems “vulnerable,” Al-Jadaan said.

“We are providing even oil and derivatives to support their energy needs,” Al Jadaan said.

“So there is a lot of efforts, but we wanted this to be conducted.”

Watch the full interview below:

It doesn’t sound like the Biden administration is high up in The Kingdom’s strategic planning; and given the comments from The Kingdom’s FinMin, Zoltan’s ominous warning appears ever closer to reality: “dusk for the petrodollar… and dawn for the petroyuan.

the interview:

https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/poszar-was-right-saudis-admit-non-dollar-oil-trade-plans-davo

end

from Robert H to us:

The reality is we have seen nothing yet compared to what is shortly coming.

Reality



Sadly, many thousands will die over the next few weeks. And no amount of artillery shells from Israel will be enough to change anything.
What is likely is if NATO or US forces go in expect 50% to die within 2 weeks … and then what a nuclear exchange ??? First detected missile towards Moscow will cull 3 US cities and perhaps a dozen bases in Europe ??? Then what ???




https://youtu.be/rvqLiufnIDk

END

Ukraine DM Says It’s a ‘Fact’ That Kyiv Is a ‘De Facto’ NATO Member – News From Antiwar.com

This is how real wars start. If Russia comes to understanding that Ukraine is NATO , then it will simply nuke KIEV as so many hard liners want to do anyway. What should be clear to the fanatics in Kiev and many others, is that Ukraine is finished as a nation. What remains to be seen is how many other actors wish to meet the same faith.
The hard truth is that Ukraine is a NAZI run proxy of many enablers and a convenient laundry machine for cash for what is a gun running operation. Those who fought in WWII must be rolling over in their graves in disbelief. What is really being shown here is how naive these people really are and how desperate certain parties are to bury their past mistakes for a shot at a digital currency to hide the facts that they no longer can pay debt.
One would have thought that intelligence would be obtained by reflecting upon history to learn from past errors of judgement. Because to ignore history and it’s lessons is to never escape it’s repeat.








6/GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

Vaccine//Covid issues: Injuries

Fed Chair Powell Tests Positive For Covid “Is Vaccinated, Has Mild Symptoms”

WEDNESDAY, JAN 18, 2023 – 10:59 AM

Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell tested positive for Covid-19 and is experiencing mild symptoms. 

The 69-year-old Powell received the positive test Wednesday and “is up to date with Covid-19 vaccines and boosters,”and is working remotely while isolating at home, the Fed said in a statement at the same time as Davos billionaires were being addressed by Pfizer CEO Bourla (himself probably a billionaire by now courtesy of covid).

The next meeting of the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee is set for Jan. 31-Feb. 1, and Powell is scheduled to deliver an in-person press conference at 2:30 p.m. in Washington after the meeting concludes.

Whereas stocks would have freaked out if this news hit three years ago, this time Bloomberg is quick to note that the Covid-19 landscape “is different than it was earlier in the pandemic: Most people have hybrid immunity from vaccinations or infections, and antivirals are widely available to older adults and those with compromised immune systems.”

END

end

GLOBAL ISSUES;//

end

PAUL ALEXANDER

Vaccinated & unvaccinated (with COVID gene injection) persons had NO difference in viral load or transmission potential, we knew this early on, warned CDC & FDA but WONT listen; Riemersma et al.

This study (among others) showed us clearly there was infectious virus at similar rates and titers in vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals; NO vaccine mandates were EVER needed; for your library

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERJAN 17
 
SAVE▷  LISTEN
 

SOURCE:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.31.21261387v7

Researchers compared data from 20,431 test-positive anterior nasal swab specimens from fully vaccinated (n = 9,347) or unvaccinated (n=11,084) individuals tested during the interval 28 June – 1 December 2021 when Delta variants were predominant.

They found no significant effect of vaccine status alone on cycle count (Ct) value, ‘nor when controlling for vaccine product or sex.’ When they looked at (tested) a subset of low-Ct (<25) samples, researchers ‘detected infectious virus at similar rates, and at similar titers, in specimens from vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals.’

‘These data indicate that vaccinated individuals infected with Delta variants are capable of shedding infectious SARS-CoV-2 and could play a role in spreading COVID-19.’

These results have been stable across the roll-out of the COVID gene injection e.g. for omicron etc. Did the news e.g. CNN or CBC or FOX or anyone tell you this? Did Fauci or Tam tell you this? Did anyone tell you that there was never any basis for the vaccine mandates? The mask madness when the masks themselves have never ever worked to curb transmission. Did you know of this? Likely you grew to know on your own for ‘you’ who read substacks and material like this are very smart folk and critical thinking. You read and listen broadly and deeply and it is inspiring. You saw through the bull quite early on and the lies and fraud and moved to protect yourself and your children.

We have millions of people (hundreds of millions), especially key people like our military and police, our boarder agents, front line people in a society, running around with a vaccine inside of them (and vaccine injured at some level) and we do not know how to turn off because the people who did this, who made this will not tell us what must be done. How to switch it off for it is the relentless translation of spike protein from the mRNA encapsulated in the lipid nano particles (LNP) (lipid fatty transport vehicular balls) that is the problem, very inflammatory and key to serious cascades of events. The focus has to be on stopping the mode of action of the mRNA and LNP and spike protein (and informing the public on that and using knowledge to reverse this) yet we have people more interested in raising money and the camera. Is there an ‘off’ switch? Can people rid themselves of the spike? Can the mRNA be turned off from it’s action? Why has this not been the focus of debate and action? Why not inform people of the key issues.

This is the tragedy of the life we have lived for 3 years now. We have health agencies and governments and pharma and seemingly dangerous people that have failed us and abused us, subjecting us to scientifically bereft and societally disastrous devastating lockdown policies. They caused our deaths, yet in the movements and people who are part of some form of resistance, some have used the pain and suffering for benefit and have not benefitted the people hurt by this, in any manner. That is the tragedy. This must stop.

Bottom line of this research paper is:

There never was and is no difference between someone who is vaccinated and someone who is not, in terms of viral load in nasal-pharyngeal passages, and thus both, vaccinated and unvaccinated were and are capable of spreading COVID virus.

You did good, real good withstanding the pressure to take the fraud gene shot.

None of it, none, no vaccine was ever needed. Not carte blanche and not without proper informed consent.

END

Trump is flat wrong here, 100%, that the Fauci & Birx lockdowns saved lives or the COVID gene injection was beneficial or saved lives; It is ineffective & kills! MUST be stopped immediately!

I supported Trump & still do & think January 2020 he was destined to be the greatest based on policies etc.; but the lockdowns & vaccine doomed him; as POTUS, he failed to make 2 key decisions

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERJAN 18
 
SAVE▷  LISTEN
 

He was POTUS and he had counsel and he was misled yes, Fauci et al. misled him but no excuses, he should have known you cannot take 15 years and boil it down to 5 months for a vaccine. This was a grave mistake and failure. I am sorry, loved him and supported but I cannot go along with this below as reported in NEWSWEEK.

This is not a bad man, not nefarious etc. Maybe if the pandemic was not in an election year, it would have turned out differently. But as time has passed, this was darker and involved sick evil ‘unseen hands’. One day we must get a full accounting for innocent people were killed via the lockdowns and the vaccine.

As POTUS it is your job, man or woman to make serious hard decisions.

SOURCE:

https://www.newsweek.com/trump-says-he-saved-100-million-lives-covid-vaccines-1774178

‘Former President Donald Trump has dismissed claims that COVID-19 vaccines are broadly unsafe while asserting that his own role in the development of the vaccines may have saved 100 million lives.

Trump touted the effectiveness of Operation Warp Speed, his administration’s program to accelerate the development of COVID-19 vaccines and therapeutics, during a Monday interview on the conservative podcast The Water Cooler.

Host David Brody asked the former president if he would “acknowledge” that the vaccines “were not as safe or effective as we were told by the medical community at the time,” after repeating a number of unsubstantiated anti-vaccine claims.’

END

Elevated risk of myocarditis after COVID-19 vaccination (Pfizer booster), Patone et al.: “Risk of Myocarditis After Sequential Doses of COVID-19 Vaccine and SARS-CoV-2 Infection by Age and Sex”

Myocarditis risk higher 1 to 28 days post 2nd dose of Moderna (11.76 [95% CI, 7.25–19.08]), persisted after booster (2.64 [95% CI, 1.25–5.58]). Associations stronger in males under 40 years all shots

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERJAN 18
 
SAVE▷  LISTEN
 

By any chance, did you read of this study when it came out, or hear of it in the news? Did the CDC or NIH or FDA or Fauci and Walensky or Bourla or Bancel or Njoo or Tam in Canada or the Prime Minister of Canada or of Britain or POTUS Biden? Did Dr. Offit of FDA’s advisory board ever tell you of these studies when he was approving the shots? They loved to come tell you to take the shots, but have they also told you the results of the studies that they know of? Did they tell you of these results? I did not hear it, did you? I do not think so. Understood. Why? Because these people have operated to subvert you, to lie to you, to mislead you, and IMO were reckless and malfeasant for they, like me, had this data all along. This is one of many studies showing the COVID gene injection shots are ineffective and dangerous. I spoke of this paper prior but had to remind you.

This is why they must be investigated fully and held to account via proper legal frameworks.

SOURCE:

https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.122.059970

‘self-controlled case series study of people ages 13 years or older vaccinated for COVID-19 in England between December 1, 2020, and December 15, 2021, evaluated the association between vaccination and myocarditis, stratified by age and sex.’

42, 842, 345 people got at least 1 dose of vaccine, 21, 242, 629 took 3 doses, and 5, 934, 153 had COVID infection before or post vaccination.

Myocarditis occurred in 2861 (0.007%) people, with 617 events 1 to 28 days after vaccination.

‘Risk of myocarditis was increased in the 1 to 28 days after a first dose of ChAdOx1 (incidence rate ratio, 1.33 [95% CI, 1.09–1.62]) and a first, second, and booster dose of Pfizer (1.52 [95% CI, 1.24–1.85]; 1.57 [95% CI, 1.28–1.92], and 1.72 [95% CI, 1.33–2.22], respectively)…

The risk of myocarditis was higher 1 to 28 days after a second dose of Moderna (11.76 [95% CI, 7.25–19.08]) and persisted after a booster dose (2.64 [95% CI, 1.25–5.58]).

Associations were stronger in men younger than 40 years for all vaccines (Pfizer, Moderna etc.

In men younger than 40 years old, the number of excess myocarditis events per million people was higher after a second dose of Moderna than after a positive SARS-CoV-2 test (97 [95% CI, 91–99] versus 16 [95% CI, 12–18]

end

Klaus? What? You want unvaccinated pilots to fly you & the WEF crooks around? “WEF Hires Unvaccinated Pilots To Fly Them Into Davos: “Safety of Our Members Is No. 1 Priority”; so safety for thee?

What about safety for me? Reports are Klaus Schwab has banned vaccinated pilots from transporting World Economic Forum members in and out of Davos due to the safety risk they pose. What?

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERJAN 18
 
SAVE▷  LISTEN
 

SOURCE:

Dr. Harriet Hall, Fierce Critic of Anti-vaxxers & Alternative Medicine has died while sleeping; First, we mourn & wish her haste to heaven; we never hate while I strongly disagreed with her views

We love! Hall had 1 piece to me that was balanced (below) where she called for ‘understanding’ of unvaccinated as her views were strong against unvaxxed, until shown otherwise, we must suspect vaccine

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERJAN 17
 
SAVE▷  LISTEN
 

In this era of DIED SUDDENLY, and she was heavily vaccinated, and these COVID gene injections do kill, then we must have it on the table. We cannot hate each other and this battle has pitted us against each other and this is wrong. A death is a death, and if I and others suspect the vaccine, it must not be open season on us skeptics and COVID vaccine questioners for we have the right to question a gene injection that has not been tested for safety. A gene injection that has toxic mRNA as the payload and the deadly lipid-nano particle to encapsulate it, and which has shown to be harmful with death in many instances. We must question.

I do not want people to say ‘good riddance’ etc. No, we mourn, this is death and painful yet her position was flat wrong in any attacks on the unvaccinated. When she spoke ‘balance’ it was important and I thank her for that. Other than that, I wish her family peace as they grieve and her a direct route to heaven to our maker and huge love even as I say she was dangerously and recklessly wrong in her advocacy for an injection that killed. As smart as she was, she fell for the lies and did not look and the body of evidence that accumulated to show the shot was ineffective and dangerous and was subverting the immune system.

Huge love and hugs to her!

END

Darth VADER Lloyd Austin says “Military considering back pay for troops kicked out over vax mandate”; Look Lloyd, you moron, these military (& police) & nurses are the very best among us

You dimwit should have never laid them off or fired them nor taken their pay in the first place, you blockhead ding dong; should I praise you for giving them back pay? NO, you should be fired!

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERJAN 17
 
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Is Defense Secretary Austin Biden’s Puppet ‘Darth Vader’? – Clever Journeys

A

/VACCINE IMPACT

Justice for Sale – Why the Criminals Running the U.S. Will Continue to Operate Until the Corrupt Judicial System is Replaced

January 17, 2023 7:01 pm

As more and more people in the general public wake up to the fact that the U.S. Government is corrupt and run by criminals, it is time for me to republish some truths about why this is so, which I have learned for the past two decades plus, after I first learned that the U.S. Government was corrupt and run by criminals in the early 2000s. And so even though what I am going to publish in this article is mostly material I have already published in the past, it will no doubt be new information for those who have just recently begun to wake up to the truth that the U.S. Government is corrupt and run by criminals, and are now guilty of being involved in a population reduction plan all in the name of “saving the planet.” This is then the truth that everyone who is now looking for solutions to overcome this corrupt Government needs to understand before any change can happen: The U.S. judicial system is totally corrupt and for sale to the highest bidder, so that those with the most money and power have zero chance of facing justice, and they use the “justice” system to enslave the masses. Are there still some honest and good people working inside the judicial system? Sure, there are, but they are completely powerless to change that system, and most of the honest and moral people in that corrupt system end up leaving, because of the fact that they are powerless to change it. I am going to highlight some of the most brilliant minds in the U