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HomeJAN 20//GOLD CLOSED UP $4.75 TO $1926.80//SILVER CLOSED UP 9 CENTS TO...
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JAN 20//GOLD CLOSED UP $4.75 TO $1926.80//SILVER CLOSED UP 9 CENTS TO $23.84//PLATINUM CLOSED UP $12.00 TO $1042.00//PALLADIUM FELL $27.25 DOWN TO $1928.65//COVID UPDATES//DR PAUL ALEXANDER//VACCINE INJURIES//UKRAINE VS RUSSIA UPDATES///MUST READS: GORDON CHANG ON SOUTH KOREA CONTEMPLATING NUCLEAR WEAPONS//FRANCE CONTINUES WITH ITS 2ND DAY OF PROTESTS REGARDING PENSION REFORM//USA DATA: EXISTING HOME SALES PLUMMET AND NOW TOTAL AN EXTREME LOW OF 4.02 MILLION HOMES SOLD FOR THE YEAR//AUTO CRISIS AS DELINQUENCIES EQUAL TO 2009//MISH SHEDLOCK ON THE STATE OF THE USA ECONOMY: A MUST READ//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

Date:

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GOLD PRICE CLOSED: UP $4.75 at $1926.80

SILVER PRICE CLOSED: UP $0.09  to $23.84

Access prices: closes : 4: 15 PM

Gold ACCESS CLOSE 1927,25

Silver ACCESS CLOSE: 23.94

Bitcoin morning price:, 20980 DOWN 164 DOLLARS

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $20980 DOWN 164  dollars

Platinum price closing  $1042.00 UP $12.00

Palladium price; closing 1728.65- DOWN $27.25

END

Due to the huge rise in the dollar, we must look at gold and silver in currencies other than the dollar to understand where we are heading

I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros/4: 15 PM ACCESS

CANADIAN GOLD: $25,778 DOWN $22.06 CDN dollars per oz

BRITISH GOLD: 1554.17 DOWN 4.64 pounds per oz

EURO GOLD: 1775.26 DOWN 7.81 euros per oz

EXCHANGE: COMEX

 EXCHANGE: COMEX

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JANUARY 2023 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,922.100000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 01/19/2023 DELIVERY DATE: 01/23/2023
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED


624 H BOFA SECURITIES 261
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 1
661 C JP MORGAN 200
880 H CITIGROUP 8
905 C ADM 68


TOTAL: 269 269
MONTH TO DATE: 4,644

JPMorgan stopped 0/269

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GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR JAN/2023. CONTRACT:   269 NOTICES FOR 26900  OZ  or  0.836 TONNES

total notices so far: 4644 contracts for 46,400 oz (14.444 tonnes)

 

SILVER NOTICES: 13 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 65,000 OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month  980 for 4,900,000  oz



END

GLD

WITH GOLD UP $4.75

INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 1.45 TONNES INTO THE GLD //

INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.43 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP 9 CENTS

AT THE SLV// :/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 750,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//// WHAT A MASSIVE FRAUD!!!

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY: 497.300 MILLION OZ (THIS IS ALSO A CRIME SCENE@!!!!

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE


SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 279 CONTRACTS TO 132,671 AND FURTHER FROM  THE  RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE SMALL GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR STRONG  $0.24 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON THURSDAY.  FOR THE PAST MONTH, OUR BANKERS HAVE RETURNED TO BEING NET SHORT AND THUS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.24 BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPEC LONGS, AS WE HAD A STRONG GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 765 CONTRACTS. AS WELL, WE HAD ZERO  EXCHANGE FOR RISK TRANSFER ( 0 CONTRACTS) AS THE TOTAL ISSUED IN THIS CATEGORY SO FAR THIS MONTH TOTAL 3.75 MILLION OZ.  WE HAVE FINISHED WITH OUR SPECS BEING SHORT AS THEY COVERED WITH THE RISE IN PRICE .  WE HAVE NOW RETURNED TO OUR USUAL AND CUSTOMARY SCENARIO: BANKERS SHORT AND SPECS LONG.

WE  MUST HAVE HAD: 
A GIGANTIC  ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS( 912 CONTRACTS) iiii) AN  INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT  4,055. MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE. JUMP   OF 85,000 OZ//NEW STANDING 4.955 MILLION OZ + 3.75 MILLION OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL STANDING 8.705 MILLION OZ////  V)  SMALL SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/ HUGE EFP ISSUANCE/

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL  –132

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS JAN. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF JAN: 

TOTAL CONTRACTS for 13 days, total 7255 contracts:   OR 36.275  MILLION OZ PER DAY. (558 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 36.275 MILLION OZ

.

LAST 17 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ 

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE 

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ 

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ 

SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL

OCT.  29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL

NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL

DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL

JAN 2023///   36.275 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 279 DESPITE OUR   $0.24 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// THURSDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A GIGANTIC  SIZED EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 912 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR MAR AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JAN OF  4.055 MILLION  OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 85,000 OZ. JUMP  /  //NEW STANDING INCREASES TO 4.955 MILLION OZ + EFR 3.75 MILLION = 8.705 MILLION OZ.  .. WE HAVE A  STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 633 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 3.165 MILLION  OZ.. THE SILVER SHORTS HAVE BEEN HURT BADLY WITH SILVER’S HUGE RISE LATELY.

 WE HAD  13  NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR  65,000   OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE  BY A STRONG SIZED 6154  CONTRACTS  TO 495,837 AND CLOSER TO  THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED -2551  CONTRACTS.

.

 WE HAD A STRONG SIZED INCREASE  IN COMEX OI (6154 CONTRACTS)  WITH OUR  $16.95 GAIN IN PRICE. WE ALSO HAD A SMALL INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR JAN. AT 2.1710 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 369 CONTRACTS OR 36900 OZ  //(QUEUE JUMPING = EXERCISING LONDON BASED EFP’S ) (EFP is the transfer of  contracts immediately to London for potential gold deliveries originating from London). NEW STANDING 14.796 TONNES

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR  $16.95 GAIN IN PRICE  WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 13,386 OI CONTRACTS (41.636 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A VERY STRONG SIZED 7232 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 493,286

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A GIGANTIC SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 13,386 CONTRACTS  WITH 6154 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 7232 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 13,386 CONTRACTS OR 41.636 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (7232 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE  VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (6154) TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 13,386 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR NORMAL FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING SHORT AND SPECULATORS GOING LONG  ,2.) SMALL INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR JAN. AT 2.1710 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 36,900 OZ /NEW STANDING 14.796 TONNES///3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION //4)    VERY STRONG SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN 5) VERY STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY

JAN

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JAN :

54,889  CONTRACTS OR 5,488,900 OZ OR 170.72 TONNES 13 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 4222 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 13 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES:170.72   TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  170.72/3550 x 100% TONNES  4,81% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 202

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN).. 

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE// 

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH:  409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247,44 TONNES FINAL// 

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES  FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL

OCT:  177.57  TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

NOV.  223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)

DEC:  185.59 tonnes // FINAL

JAN 2023:    170.72 TONNES INITIAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW  ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF FEB. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF BOTH GOLD (

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR BOTH GOLD:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (NOV), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER FELL BY A SMALL  SIZED 279 CONTRACTS OI TO  132,641 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  5 YEARS AGO.  

EFP ISSUANCE 970 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

MAR  912 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 912 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI LOSS  OF 279 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE  912 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A VERY STRONG GAIN OF 633 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. 

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 3.165 MILLION OZ//

OCCURRED DESPITE OUR 24 CENT GAIN IN PRICE ….. OUR SPEC SHORTS HAVE NOWHERE TO HIDE!

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

end

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

end

5. Other gold/silver commentaries

6. Commodity commentaries//CORN

7/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)FRIDAY MORNING//THURSDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 24.54 PTS OR 0.76%   //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 393.69 PTS OR 1.82%     /The Nikkei closed UP 148.30 PTS OR 0.56%            //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.23%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP TO 6.7830//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP TO 6.7845//    /Oil UP TO 80.49 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 86.37   / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN         ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 6154 CONTRACTS UP TO 493,286 WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $16.95

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON-ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JAN…  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A VERY STRONG  SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 7232 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;: ,  . 0 FEB: 7232 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  7232   CONTRACTS 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A HUGE SIZED  TOTAL OF 13,386 CONTRACTS IN THAT 7232 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A STRONG SIZED  COMEX OI GAIN OF 6154 CONTRACTS..AND  THIS VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN  IN PRICE OF $16.95. WE ARE NOW WITNESSING THE BANKERS GOING NET SHORT AND THE SPECS GOING NET LONG .

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING Jan  (14.796)

TONNES),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL  YEAR  2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT.  38.1158 TONNES

OCT:  77.390 TONNES/ FINAL

NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL 

Dec. 64.541 tonnes(TOTAL  THIS YEAR 656.076 TONNES

JAN/2023: 14.796 tonnes

THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE $16.95)  //// AND WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY  SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A GIGANTIC SIZED GAIN OF 13,386 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES  //    WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI  OF 49.57PAPER TONNES OF TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JAN. (2.1710 TONNES) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 36,900 oz  OR 1.1477 TONNES… ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR RISE IN PRICE  TO THE TUNE OF $16.95.  

WE HAD – 2550 CONTRACTS  COMEX TRADES REMOVED FROM OPEN INTEREST AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 13,386 CONTRACTS OR 1,338,600 OZ OR 41.636 TONNES

Estimated gold comex today 203,286//fair//

final gold volumes/yesterday  271,133///fair

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR  JAN 2023 COMEX GOLD //JAN 20//

GoldOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz
 nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz 163,937.949 oz
Brinks
JPMorgan
total 5099 kilobars
both banks




 




.

 








 









 
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oznil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
nil  oz
No of oz served (contracts) today269 notice(s)
26900 OZ
0.836 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)  113 contracts 
  11300 oz
0.3514 TONNES

 
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month 4644  notices
464,400
14.444 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this monthxxx oz

i)Dealer deposits: 0

total dealer deposit:  nil oz

No dealer withdrawals

Customer deposits: 0

total deposits: nil oz

 customer withdrawals: 2

i) Out of Brinks:  3182.949 oz (99 kilobars)

ii) Our of JPMorgan:  160,755.000 oz (5,000 kilobars)

Total withdrawals: 163,939.949 oz (5099 kilobars)

total in tonnes: 5.099  tonnes

Adjustments:0

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JANUARY.

For the front month of JANUARY we have an oi of 382 contracts having lost 1055  contracts

We had 1424 notices served on Thursday, so we gained 369 contracts or an additional 36,900 oz(1.147 tonnes) will stand for delivery in this

very non active delivery month of January.  (queue jump) 

February lost  10,461  contacts  to 209,295  (looks like Feb. is going to be a huge delivery month//not contracting fast enough)_

March gained 65 contracts to stand at 1004.

April gained 17,301 contracts up to 228,257.

We had 269  notice(s) filed today for 26900 oz 

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and  200  notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to  1269  contract(s) of which 0   notices were stopped (received) by  j.P. Morgan dealer and 0  notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JAN. /2023. contract month, 

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (4644 x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (JAN.382 CONTRACTS)  minus the number of notices served upon today  269 x 100 oz per contract equals 475,700 OZ  OR 14.796 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this    non active month of January. 

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JAN contract month:

No of notices filed so far (4644 x 100 oz+   (382 OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (269} x 100 oz} which equals 475,700 oz standing OR 14.796 TONNES in this NON  active delivery month of JAN..

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 14.796 TONNES  (A VERY STRONG STANDING FOR METAL//COMEX RUNNING OUT OF PHYSICAL TO SERVE UPON OUR LONGS.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

we had one adjustment of 110,631.591 oz Brinks

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 o

total pledged gold:  1,920,041.721 OZ   59.72 tonnes

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED:  22,709,480.196 OZ  

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD:  11,039,578.731 OZ     (343,37 tonnes)..dropping fast

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 11,669,901.465 OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 9,119,537 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 283.65 tonnes//rapidly declining 

END

SILVER/COMEX

JAN 20/2023//INITIAL JAN. SILVER CONTRACT

SilverOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers InventoryNIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory806,332.799 oz
Brinks
Delaware
Loomis
































 










 
Deposits to the Dealer Inventorynil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory16,562.300 oz
Delaware















 











 
No of oz served today (contracts)13 CONTRACT(S)  
 (65,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)11 contracts 
(55,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)980 contracts
 (4,900,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month


i)  0 
dealer deposit

total dealer deposits:  nil   oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals:  oz

We have 1 deposits into the customer account

i) Into Delaware  16,562.300 oz

Total deposits:  16,562.300 oz 

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 151.398 million oz/293.748 million =51.41% of comex .//dropping fast

  Comex withdrawals: 3

i) Out of Brinks: 600,968.370 oz

ii) Out of Loomis:  200,435.040 oz 

iii) Out of Delaware: 4929.389 oz

Total withdrawals; 806,332.799 oz

adjustments: 0

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 33.195 MILLION OZ (declining rapidly).TOTAL REG + ELIG. 293.748 MILLION OZ 

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JAN

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF JAN/2023 OI: 24  CONTRACTS HAVING GAINED 1  CONTRACT(S.). WE HAD 16 NOTICES

FILED ON THURSDAY SO  WE GAINED 17 CONTRACT(S) OR 85,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP  BY THE BANKERS TO OBTAIN SOME SILVER OVER HERE. 

FEB> LOST 10 CONTRACTS TO 178 CONTRACTS

March LOST 515 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 110,073 contracts

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY:13 for  65,000 oz

Comex volumes// est. volume today  54,663//fair  

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 69,202 contracts ( strong)

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JANUARY. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 980 x  5,000 oz = 4,900,000 oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JAN(24) and the number of notices served upon today 13 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the JAN./2023 contract month: 980 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of JAN (24 – number of notices served upon today (13) x 500 oz of silver standing for the JAN. contract month equates 4.955 million oz  + 3.75 MILLION OZ ( EXCHANGE FOR RISK) = 8.705MILLION OZ//(TOTAL OZ OF SILVER STANDING).

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

Comex volumes:59,231// est. volume today//   good

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 76,646 contracts ( very good)

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS

JAN 20/WITH GOLD UP $4.75 TODAY;BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.45 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.43 TONNES

JAN 19/WITH GOLD UP $16.95 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 910.98TONNES

JAN 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.95 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.9 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 909.24 TONNES

JAN 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.45 TODAY; NO  CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.14 TONNES

JAN 13/WITH GOLD UP $22.90 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.14 TONNES

JAN 12/WITH GOLD UP $20.55 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.43 TONNES

JAN 11/WITH GOLD UP $1.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.17 TONNES

JAN 10/WITH GOLD UP $1.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.33 TONNES

JAN 9/WITH GOLD UP $ 8.60 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES FROM THE GLD//.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.33 TONNES

JAN 6/WITH GOLD UP $28.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.77 TONNES

JAN 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.05 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES FORM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.77 TONNES

JANUARY 4/WITH GOLD UP $32.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.64 TONNES

JAN 3/WITH GOLD UP $20.00 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:STRANGE: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES FORM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.64 TONNES

DEC 30/WITH GOLD UP $.80 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.51 TONNES

DEC 29//WITH GOLD UP $8.35 TODAY:; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.51 TONNES

DEC 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.80 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 5.50 TONNES INTO THE GLD..//INVENTORY REST S AT 918.51 TONNES

DEC 27/WITH GOLD UP $18.15 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.01 TONNES

DEC 23/WITH GOLD UP $19,15 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.88 TONNES/

DEC 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $29.35 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.88 TONNES

DEC 21/WITH GOLD FLAT TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.88 TONNES

DEC 20/WITH GOLD UP $27.05: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.73 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.14 TONNES

DEC 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.10: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD> A BIG WITHDRAWAL OF 3.47 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 910.41 TONNES

DEC 16/WITH GOLD UP $12.45: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.32 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.88 TONNES

DEC 15//WITH GOLD DOWN $31.00: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 911.56 TONNES

DEC 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.20: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.32 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.72 TONNES

DEC 13/WITH GOLD UP $32.75: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.32 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 910.41

DEC 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.60: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.09 TONNES

DEC 9/WITH GOLD UP $8.90//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.09 TONNES

Dec 8/WITH GOLD UP $4.05, OVER THE PAST 3 WEEKS WE LOST 2.04 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.09 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 912.43  TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

JAN 20.WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 750,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 497.300 MILLION OZ

JAN 19/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.05 MILLION OZ

JAN 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 41 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 8.15 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.05 MILLION OZ///

JAN 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 35 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 506.200 MILLION OZ//

JAN 13/WITH SILVER UP 46 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.5 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 506.200 MILLION OZ//

JAN 12/WITH SILVER UP 44 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 508.700 MILLION OZ/

JAN 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 508.700MILLION OZ

JAN 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.65 MILLION OZ

JAN 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.65 MILLION OZ//

JAN 6/WITH SILVER UP 54 CENTS TODAY;BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 4.20 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.65 MILLION OZ//

JAN 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 50 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.10 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 505.45 MILLION OZ//

JAN 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 26 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.3 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 506.55 MILLION OZ/

JAN 3/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: STRANGE: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.2 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 507.85 MILLION OZ/

DEC 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.050 MILLION OZ

DEC 29/ WITH SILVER UP $0.63 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.050 MILLION OZ

DEC 28//WITH SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.715 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///..INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.050 MILLION OZ

DEC 27/WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/A WITHDRAWAL OF 550,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 507.350 MILLION OZ//

DEC 23/WITH SILVER UP 29 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT507.900 MILLION O//

DEC 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 53 CENTS TODAY;NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 507.90 MILLION OZ//

DEC 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.0 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 507.90 MILLION OZ//

DEC 20/WITH SILVER UP 105 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:: A DEPOSIT OF 700,000 OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.90 MILLION OZ//

DEC 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.05 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.20 MILLION OZ//

DEC 16/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.85 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 508.15 MILLION OZ//

DEC 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 78 CENTS: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF EXACTLY 2.00 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 510.000 MILLION OZ

DEC 14/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.7 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 512.000 MILLION OZ//

DEC 13/WITH SILVER UP 59 CENTS: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 600,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 513.900 MILLION OZ//

DEC 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 33 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.500 MILLION OZ//

DEC 9/WITH SILVER RISING 77 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.2 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.500 MILLION OZ.

DEC 8/WITH SILVER RISING 34 CENTS TODAY: OVER THE PAST 3 WEEKS, WE HAVE GAINED A STRONG: 44.777 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 516.700 MILION OZ.

CLOSING INVENTORY 497.300 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1:Peter Schiff

2 Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz//Rickards:

END

3. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries//

Your weekend reading material:

(Alasdair Macleod)

Alasdair Macleod: Say’s Law and macroeconomic ignorance

Submitted by admin on Thu, 2023-01-19 11:03Section: Daily Dispatches

By Alasdair Macleod
GoldMoney, Toronto
Thursday, January 19, 2023

Probably the greatest error in modern economics was the abandonment of Say’s Law, otherwise known as the law of the markets. In a nutshell, it demonstrated that through the division of labour, production is firmly linked to consumption, and the former is tied to the latter through the medium of money and credit.

While there are variations in production outputs of individual goods, in free markets there can never be a general glut. It was this that Keynes had to disprove in order to create a role for the state, intervening to make up for the supposed deficiencies of free markets. While reasoned analysis shows that Keynes failed to disprove Say’s Law, he managed to convince the mainstream establishment that he had actually succeeded.

This article traces the history of Say’s Law, from Jean-Baptiste Say’s original work on the subject to the present day. It shows how Keynes bent the truth about free markets, that an understanding of Say’s Law explains why state intervention fails, and why prices will continue to rise in the imminent economic recession. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.goldmoney.com/research/say-s-law-and-macroeconomic-ignorance?gmrefcode=gata

end

4. Other gold/silver commentaries

Global South: Gold-Backed Currencies to Replace the US Dollar

PEPE ESCOBAR • JANUARY 19, 2023

 

Let’s start with three interconnected multipolar-driven facts.

First: One of the key take aways from the World Economic Forum annual shindig in Davos, Switzerland is when Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed al-Jadaan, on a panel on “Saudi Arabia’s Transformation,” made it clear that Riyadh “will consider trading in currencies other than the US dollar.”

So is the petroyuan finally at hand? Possibly, but Al-Jadaan wisely opted for careful hedging: “We enjoy a very strategic relationship with China and we enjoy that same strategic relationship with other nations including the US and we want to develop that with Europe and other countries.”

Second: The Central Banks of Iran and Russia are studying the adoption of a “stable coin” for foreign trade settlements, replacing the US dollar, the ruble and the rial. The crypto crowd is already up in arms, mulling the pros and cons of a gold-backed central bank digital currency (CBDC) for trade that will be in fact impervious to the weaponized US dollar.

A gold-backed digital currency

The really attractive issue here is that this gold-backed digital currency would be particularly effective in the Special Economic Zone (SEZ) of Astrakhan, in the Caspian Sea.

Astrakhan is the key Russian port participating in the International North South Transportation Corridor (INTSC), with Russia processing cargo travelling across Iran in merchant ships all the way to West Asia, Africa, the Indian Ocean and South Asia.

The success of the INSTC – progressively tied to a gold-backed CBDC – will largely hinge on whether scores of Asian, West Asian and African nations refuse to apply US-dictated sanctions on both Russia and Iran.

As it stands, exports are mostly energy and agricultural products; Iranian companies are the third largest importer of Russian grain. Next will be turbines, polymers, medical equipment, and car parts. Only the Russia-Iran section of the INSTC represents a $25 billion business.

And then there’s the crucial energy angle of INSTC – whose main players are the Russia-Iran-India triad.

India’s purchases of Russian crude have increased year-by-year by a whopping factor of 33. India is the world’s third largest importer of oil; in December, it received 1.2 million barrels from Russia, which for several months now is positioned ahead of Iraq and Saudi Arabia as Delhi’s top supplier.

‘A fairer payment system’

Third: South Africa holds this year’s rotating BRICS presidency. And this year will mark the start of BRICS+ expansion, with candidates ranging from Algeria, Iran and Argentina to Turkey, Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

South African Foreign Minister Naledi Pandor has just confirmed that the BRICS do want to find a way to bypass the US dollar and thus create “a fairer payment system not skewed toward wealthier countries.”

For years now, Yaroslav Lissovolik, head of the analytical department of Russian Sberbank’s corporate and investment business has been a proponent of closer BRICS integration and the adoption of a BRICS reserve currency.

Lissovolik reminds us that the first proposal “to create a new reserve currency based on a basket of currencies of BRICS countries was formulated by the Valdai Club back in 2018.”

Are you ready for the R5?

The original idea revolved around a currency basket similar to the Special Drawing Rights (SDR) model, composed of the national currencies of BRICS members – and then, further on down the road, other currencies of the expanded BRICS+ circle.

Lissovolik explains that choosing BRICS national currencies made sense because “these were among the most liquid currencies across emerging markets. The name for the new reserve currency — R5 or R5+ — was based on the first letters of the BRICS currencies all of which begin with the letter R (real, ruble, rupee, renminbi, rand).”

So BRICS already have a platform for their in-depth deliberations in 2023. As Lissovolik notes, “in the longer run, the R5 BRICS currency could start to perform the role of settlements/payments as well as the store of value/reserves for the central banks of emerging market economies.”

It is virtually certain that the Chinese yuan will be prominent right from the start, taking advantage of its “already advanced reserve status.”

Potential candidates that could become part of the R5+ currency basket include the Singapore dollar and the UAE’s dirham.

Quite diplomatically, Lissovolik maintains that, “the R5 project can thus become one of the most important contributions of emerging markets to building a more secure international financial system.”

The R5, or R5+ project does intersect with what is being designed at the Eurasia Economic Union (EAEU), led by the Macro-Economics Minister of the Eurasia Economic Commission, Sergey Glazyev.

A new gold standard

In Golden Ruble 3.0 , his most recent paper, Glazyev makes a direct reference to two by now notorious reports by Credit Suisse strategist Zoltan Pozsar, formerly of the IMF, US Department of Treasury, and New York Federal Reserve: War and Commodity Encumbrance (December 27) and War and Currency Statecraft (December 29).

Pozsar is a staunch supporter of a Bretton Woods III – an idea that has been getting enormous traction among the Fed-skeptical crowd.

What’s quite intriguing is that the American Pozsar now directly quotes Russia’s Glazyev, and vice-versa, implying a fascinating convergence of their ideas.

Let’s start with Glazyev’s emphasis on the importance of gold. He notes the current accumulation of multibillion-dollar cash balances on the accounts of Russian exporters in “soft” currencies in the banks of Russia’s main foreign economic partners: EAEU nations, China, India, Iran, Turkey, and the UAE.

He then proceeds to explain how gold can be a unique tool to fight western sanctions if prices of oil and gas, food and fertilizers, metals and solid minerals are recalculated:

“Fixing the price of oil in gold at the level of 2 barrels per 1g will give a second increase in the price of gold in dollars, calculated Credit Suisse strategist Zoltan Pozsar. This would be an adequate response to the ‘price ceilings’ introduced by the west – a kind of ‘floor,’ a solid foundation. And India and China can take the place of global commodity traders instead of Glencore or Trafigura.”

So here we see Glazyev and Pozsar converging. Quite a few major players in New York will be amazed.

JAN 20//GOLD CLOSED UP .75 TO 26.80//SILVER CLOSED UP 9 CENTS TO .84//PLATINUM CLOSED UP .00 TO 42.00//PALLADIUM FELL .25 DOWN TO 28.65//COVID UPDATES//DR PAUL ALEXANDER//VACCINE INJURIES//UKRAINE VS RUSSIA UPDATES///MUST READS: GORDON CHANG ON SOUTH KOREA CONTEMPLATING NUCLEAR WEAPONS//FRANCE CONTINUES WITH ITS 2ND DAY OF PROTESTS REGARDING PENSION REFORM//USA DATA: EXISTING HOME SALES PLUMMET AND NOW TOTAL AN EXTREME LOW OF 4.02 MILLION HOMES SOLD FOR THE YEAR//AUTO CRISIS AS DELINQUENCIES EQUAL TO 2009//MISH SHEDLOCK ON THE STATE OF THE USA ECONOMY: A MUST READ//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

Glazyev then lays down the road toward Gold Ruble 3.0. The first gold standard was lobbied by the Rothschilds in the 19th century, which “gave them the opportunity to subordinate continental Europe to the British financial system through gold loans.” Golden Ruble 1.0, writes Glazyev, “provided the process of capitalist accumulation.”

Golden Ruble 2.0, after Bretton Woods, “ensured a rapid economic recovery after the war.” But then the “reformer Khrushchev canceled the peg of the ruble to gold, carrying out monetary reform in 1961 with the actual devaluation of the ruble by 2.5 times, forming conditions for the subsequent transformation of the country [Russia] into a “raw material appendage of the Western financial system.”

What Glazyev proposes now is for Russia to boost gold mining to as much as 3 percent of GDP: the basis for fast growth of the entire commodity sector (30 percent of Russian GDP). With the country becoming a world leader in gold production, it gets “a strong ruble, a strong budget and a strong economy.”

All Global South eggs in one basket

Meanwhile, at the heart of the EAEU discussions, Glazyev seems to be designing a new currency not only based on gold, but partly based on the oil and natural gas reserves of participating countries.

Pozsar seems to consider this potentially inflationary: it could be if it results in some excesses, considering the new currency would be linked to such a large base.

Off the record, New York banking sources admit the US dollar would be “wiped out, since it is a valueless fiat currency, should Sergey Glazyev link the new currency to gold. The reason is that the Bretton Woods system no longer has a gold base and has no intrinsic value, like the FTX crypto currency. Sergey’s plan also linking the currency to oil and natural gas seems to be a winner.”

So in fact Glazyev may be creating the whole currency structure for what Pozsar called, half in jest, the “G7 of the East”: the current 5 BRICS plus the next 2 which will be the first new members of BRICS+.

Both Glazyev and Pozsar know better than anyone that when Bretton Woods was created the US possessed most of Central Bank gold and controlled half the world’s GDP. This was the basis for the US to take over the whole global financial system.

Now vast swathes of the non-western world are paying close attention to Glazyev and the drive towards a new non-US dollar currency, complete with a new gold standard which would in time totally replace the US dollar.

Pozsar completely understood how Glazyev is pursuing a formula featuring a basket of currencies (as Lissovolik suggested). As much as he understood the groundbreaking drive towards the petroyuan. He describes the industrial ramifications thus:

“Since as we have just said Russia, Iran, and Venezuela account for about 40 percent of the world’s proven oil reserves, and each of them are currently selling oil to China for renminbi at a steep discount, we find BASF’s decision to permanently downsize its operations at its main plant in Ludwigshafen and instead shift its chemical operations to China was motivated by the fact that China is securing energy at discounts, not markups like Europe.”

The race to replace the dollar

One key takeaway is that energy-intensive major industries are going to be moving to China. Beijing has become a big exporter of Russian liquified natural gas (LNG) to Europe, while India has become a big exporter of Russian oil and refined products such as diesel – also to Europe. Both China and India – BRICS members – buy below market price from fellow BRICS member Russia and resell to Europe with a hefty profit. Sanctions? What sanctions?

Meanwhile, the race to constitute the new currency basket for a new monetary unit is on. This long-distance dialogue between Glazyev and Pozsar will become even more fascinating, as Glazyev will be trying to find a solution to what Pozsar has stated: tapping of natural resources for the creation of the new currency could be inflationary if money supply is increased too quickly.

All that is happening as Ukraine – a huge chasm at a critical junction of the New Silk Road blocking off Europe from Russia/China – slowly but surely disappears into a black void. The Empire may have gobbled up Europe for now, but what really matters geoeconomically, is how the absolute majority of the Global South is deciding to commit to the Russia/China-led block.

Economic dominance of BRICS+ may be no more than 7 years away – whatever toxicities may be concocted by that large, dysfunctional nuclear rogue state on the other side of the Atlantic. But first, let’s get that new currency going.

(Republished from The Cradle by permission of author or representative)

← ‘Fragmented World’ Sleepwalks Into Worl…


end

Commodity commentaries//GLOBAL FREIGHT

END

IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES ON COMMODITIES:EGGS

Huge differences in prices of eggs from Mexico and the uSA has caused arbitrageurs attempting to capitalize on this poultry crisis

(zerohedge)

Egg Seizures Skyrocket At US Border As Arbitrageurs Attempt To Capitalize On Poultry Crisis

THURSDAY, JAN 19, 2023 – 08:00 PM

America’s egg shortage worsens by the week. Supermarkets nationwide are running out of eggs as prices hyperinflate. Egg arbitrage is rising as people attempt to smuggle egg and poultry products across Mexico–US border for resale in the States where they can reap hefty profits. 

US Customs and Border Protection reported a 108% increase in egg and poultry seizures at land ports on the border from Oct. 1 to Dec. 31. The uptick in egg smuggling comes as retail prices erupt in the US as the avian flu forced producers to cull tens of millions of birds and egg-laying hens over the last year. 

“My advice is, don’t bring them over. 

“If you fail to declare them or try to smuggle them, you face civil penalties,” said CBP Supervisory Agriculture Specialist Charles Payne

Egg seizures are so rampant that CBP tweeted that smugglers will be slapped with $10,000 fines. 

People have realized there are huge profits in buying a 30-count carton of eggs at $3.40 in Juarez, Mexico, and reselling them in the US. 

It’s only a matter of time before cartels figure out about this lucrative trade. 

-END-

6/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC

Finally Genesis crypto lender goes bankrupt.  Should be quite interesting!

(zerohedge)

Crypto Lender Genesis Files For Bankruptcy, Seen As “Crucial Step To Recover Assets”

FRIDAY, JAN 20, 2023 – 08:28 AM

Crypto lender Genesis Global Holdco LLC and two of its lending subsidiaries filed Thursday night for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in New York. Genesis Global is the latest firm to fold following last year’s implosion of the crypto hedge fund Three Arrows Capital and the collapse of FTX. 

Genesis Global Holdco filed for bankruptcy protection along with Genesis Global Capital, LLC and Genesis Asia Pacific Pte. Ltd. Genesis Global Trading wasn’t included in the filing and continues client trading operations. 

The filing explained Genesis Global Capital, the partner company to Gemini’s defunct Earn program, had more than 100,000 creditors and between $1 billion and $10 billion in assets and or liabilities. The other entities had assets and liabilities between the $100 million and $500 million range. 

Genesis owes its top 50 creditors more than $3.5 billion. Some of those creditors include Gemini, VanEck’s New Finance Income Fund, MoonAlpha Finance, Mirana, and Cumberland. They said talks were ongoing, productive discussions” with the advisers of its creditors, along with its parent company Digital Currency Group in the attempt to find a way to “preserve assets and move the business forward.”

With paused redemptions and new loan originations halted, Genesis wants to reach a solution with its lending business. The lending firm halted withdraws on Nov. 16 following FTX’s collapse. 

“Redemptions and new loan originations in the lending business remain suspended, and claims will be addressed through the Chapter 11 process. Genesis and its advisors will continue to evaluate options to advance the process to reach a global resolution,” Genesis said.  

Paul Aronzon, an independent director at Genesis, stated:

“We have crafted a deliberate process and roadmap through which we believe we can reach the best solution for clients and other stakeholders.

“We look forward to advancing our dialogue with DCG and our creditors’ advisors as we seek to implement a path to maximize value and provide the best opportunity for our business to emerge well-positioned for the future.”

The troubles for Genesis began with the crypto bear market early last year. It lent a bunch of money to now-defunct Three Arrows Capital, which blew up last summer. One major issue there was the loans weren’t entirely collateralized. Then things worsened when FTX collapsed in November. Genesis’s loans to Alameda were collateralized via FTX tokens, though the value of the coin plummeted. 

Genesis has spent the last few months trying to raise new capital and reach a deal with creditors. However, Gemini co-founder Cameron Winklevoss and Barry Silbert, the chief executive of Digital Currency Group, have argued on Twitter about who is responsible for the repayment of $900 million in assets to approximately 340,000 Gemini users.

After the bankruptcy filing was published, Cameron Winklevoss explained in a series of tweets that bankruptcy is a critical step toward Gemini users being able to recover their assets.

He also said Silbert “continues to refuse to offer creditors a fair deal” and threatened to file a lawsuit “unless Barry and DCG come to their senses.”

Here are Cameron Winklevoss’ tweets: 

1/ Earn Update: This evening, Genesis Global Capital, LLC (Genesis) filed for bankruptcy under Chapter 11. This is a crucial step towards us being able to recover your assets.

2/ While we have been working around the clock to negotiate an acceptable solution, @BarrySilbert  and @DCGco — the parent company of Genesis – continue to refuse to offer creditors a fair deal.

3/ The good news is that, by seeking the protection of the bankruptcy court, Genesis will be subject to judicial oversight and be required to provide discovery into the machinations that brought us to this point.

4/ Crucially, the decision to put Genesis into bankruptcy does not insulate Barry, DCG, and any other wrongdoers from accountability.

5/ We have been preparing to take direct legal action against Barry, DCG, and others who share responsibility for the fraud that has caused harm to the 340,000+ Earn users and others duped by Genesis and its accomplices.

6/ Unless Barry and DCG come to their senses and make a fair offer to creditors, we will be filing a lawsuit against Barry and DCG imminently.

7/ Meanwhile, we will use every tool available to us in the bankruptcy court to maximize recovery for Earn users and any other parties within the bankruptcy court’s jurisdiction.

8/ We also believe that — in addition to owing creditors all of their money back — Genesis, DCG, and Barry owes them an explanation. Bankruptcy court provides a much-needed forum for that to happen. Sunlight is the best disinfectant.

9/ This marks an important milestone in our efforts to help Earn users get their assets back. Doing so remains our highest priority.

Last week, the Securities and Exchange Commission sued Genesis Global Capital and Gemini for securities violations regarding the lending program. 

Clinton ties certainly had a strong effect to dupe investors

(zerohedge)

SBF’s Clinton Ties Helped Disgraced Crypto King Dupe Investors

THURSDAY, JAN 19, 2023 – 06:05 PM

The relationship between FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried and the Clintons helped him to boost credibility before his firm imploded.

Bankman-Fried, or SBF, is accused of eight criminal charges, including conspiracy to commit money laundering, conspiracy to commit wire fraud on customers and lenders, conspiracy to commit commodities and security fraud, and separate wire fraud on customers and lenders.

And as the NY Post reports, a close relationship with the Clintons helped SBF to dupe investors.

Bill Clinton was paid north of $250,000 when he spoke at the disgraced FTX CEO’s Crypto Bahamas Conference in April, sources told The Post. At the over-the-top tropical shindig, the ex-US president along with former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair were famously photographed onstage next to Bankman-Fried, who appeared wearing shorts and a T-shirt.

Shortly thereafter, Bill and Hillary Clinton invited the 30-year-old Bankman-Fried — known as “SBF” in crypto circles — to speak at their annual Clinton Global Initiative in New York — an effective endorsement of the former FTX CEO that played a pivotal role in elevating his reputation among politicians and deep-pocketed investors alike, insiders told The Post. -NY Post

To promote the Clinton event, SBF’s photo was featured on the Clinton Foundation website next to notables such as Matt Damon, Gavin Newsom, Melinda French-Gates and Larry Fink.

People close to the Clintons say it was a typical quid-pro-quo between the Democratic power couple and SBF; up and coming business leaders gain credibility by riding the Clinton coattails – and then the Clintons get a check.

“The Clintons’ involvement gave SBF some air cover,” said one former confidante in a statement to the Post.

And while many politicians have returned donations from SBF and other FTX executives, it’s been crickets from the Clintons – with critics saying it’s ‘unseemly’ for Bill Clinton to hold on to the $250,000 speaking fee he received when thousands of investors have lost their retirement accounts and savings in the implosion. 

“I don’t think every public figure has to give back every dollar from every tarnished source, but it’s obviously wrong to hold onto money the orchestrator of a Ponzi scheme paid you to lend their grift credibility,” said Jeff Houser, director of progressive corruption watchdog, the Revolving Door Project.

“They should just apologize and give the money back now,” another insider told the Post, adding “It’s only going to get messier.

END

.

1. YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS//FRIDAY MORNING.7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: UP TO  6.7830

OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.7845

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 24.54 PTS OR  0.76%

HANG SENG CLOSED UP 393.67 PTS 1.82%  

2. Nikkei closed UP 148.20 PTS OR 0.56%  

3. Europe stocks   SO FAR:  ALL GREEN

USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO  102.14 Euro FALLS TO 1.0820 DOWN 14 BASIS PTS

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.394!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 128.55/JAPANESE YEN RISING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10  YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   UP-//  OFF- SHORE: UP

3f Japan is to buy INFINITE  TRILLION YEN’S worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt. 

3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.135%***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 3.895%*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 3.102…** DANGEROUS//

3i Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO 4.11//

3j Gold at $1928.75//silver at: 23.94  7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0  AND  1/100        roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 68.79//

3m oil into the 80 dollar handle for WTI and  86 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 130.23/10 YEAR YIELD AFTER BREAKING .54% FALLS TO .394% ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.9204– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9957 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.415% UP 4 BASIS PTS…GETTING DANGEROUS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.599 UP 3 BASIS PTS//

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18,81…

GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: 3.354 % DOWN 2 BASIS PTS

end

i.b  Overnight:  Newsquawk and Zero hedge:

 FIRST, ZEROHEDGE (PRE USA OPENING// MORNING

OFF TODAY

AND NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)

US Equity futures mixed/flat with focus on the final Fed speakers pre-blackout – Newsquawk US Market Open

Newsquawk Logo

FRIDAY, JAN 20, 2023 – 06:37 AM

  • European bourses are firmer, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.5%, but are currently still set to end the week with modest losses
  • Stateside, futures are mixed/flat, ES +0.1% holding around 20 points above the 3900 mark, with the 100- & 21- DMAs at 3900 and 3904 respectively.
  • DXY has struggled to make any meaningful headway thus far, though it has derived support from a marked pullback in the JPY while antipodeans lead.
  • EGBs continue to slip as ECB’s Lagarde maintains they will “stay the course” on policy, with Bunds down to a 138.49 low vs Thursday’s 140.73 peak.
  • Crude benchmarks are firmer on the session, taking advantage of the rosier demand outlook going into the Lunar New Year holiday.
  • Looking ahead, highlights include US Existing Home Sales, Speeches from Fed’s George, Harker & Waller and ECB’s Elderson, earnings from State Street.

View the full premarket movers and news report. 

Or why not try Newsquawk’s squawk box free for 7 days?

EUROPEAN TRADE

CENTRAL BANKS/WEF

  • SNB’s Jordan says we should not underestimate second round effects of inflation, firms are not hesitating to increase prices; not easy to bring inflation back to 2%; once inflation is high, pressure from wages is here. Would not hesitate to go back to negative rates again, to deal with negative inflation. Had to expand the balance sheet as exchange rate was too strong, now able to sell some FX reserves again.
  • ECB’s Lagarde says “stay the course” is her mantra on monetary policy, china’s reopening will have inflationary pressure.
  • BoJ’s Kuroda said widening the 10yr YCC band in December was not a mistake, will continue with accommodative monetary policy, expects inflation rates to start to decline from February, overall 2023 to see inflation less than 2%.
  • IMF’s Georgieva says the outlook is less bad than feared a couple of months ago, the potential for China to boost growth is an improvement; sees no dramatic improvement in the current IMF 2023 global growth forecast of 2.7%.

EQUITIES

  • European bourses are firmer, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.5%, but are currently still set to end the week with modest losses.
  • Sectors are mostly firmer with modest outperformance in Energy and Travel & Leisure, heading into the Lunar New Year.
  • Stateside, futures are mixed/flat, ES +0.1% holding around 20 points above the 3900 mark, with the 100- & 21-DMAs at 3900 and 3904 respectively.
  • Alphabet (GOOG) is planning to cut roughly 12k jobs globally; around 6% of workforce, according to Bloomberg citing an internal email.
  • Japanese Lawmaker Amari says that Japan needs to join the US in the imposition of restrictions on exports of chip material/machinery to China, via Bloomberg.
  • Regions Financial Corp (RF) Q4 2022 (USD): EPS 0.70 (exp. 0.66), Adj. Revenue 1.951bln (exp. 1.95bln).
  • Click here for more detail.

FX

  • DXY has struggled to make any meaningful headway thus far, though it has derived support from a marked pullback in the JPY while antipodeans lead.
  • USD/JPY has lifted above 129.50 vs an earlier 128.36 trough, amid unfavourable yield action.
  • CHF slipped a touch in wake of remarks from SNB’s Jordan on second round inflation effects while Cable ran out of steam on an initial test of 1.24 and slipped further after poor retail data.
  • Antipodeans are the relative outperformers as they regain their composure from Thursday’s data/political-induced pressure.
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.7702 vs exp. 6.7708 (prev. 6.7674)
  • Click here for more detail.

FIXED INCOME

  • EGBs continue to slip as ECB’s Lagarde maintains they will “stay the course” on policy, with Bunds down to a 138.49 low vs Thursday’s 140.73 peak.
  • In addition, attention has been placed on Italy’s 2033 exchange auction as another factor behind the pronounced EGB pressure, BTPs lower by 100+ ticks.
  • Stateside, USTs have been moving in tandem though with action more pronounced at the short-end of the curve ahead of the final Fed speakers pre-blackout.
  • Click here for more detail.

COMMODITIES

  • Crude benchmarks are firmer on the session, taking advantage of the rosier demand outlook going into the Lunar New Year holiday.
  • Currently, WTI and Brent are posting upside of around USD 0.30/bbl.
  • Spot gold is choppy in a ~USD 15 range as the yellow metal moves in tandem with the Dollar, with spot gold around the middle of a USD 1,937.50-1,923.29/oz parameters.
  • 3M LME copper is flat around USD 9,300/t after rising some USD 1,000/t over 15 calendar days .
  • Click here for more detail.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

  • UK Chancellor Hunt wants to extend the 5p cut in the price of petrol and diesel for another year, according to The Times
  • Irish PM Varadkar says the possibility of an EU-UK agreement in the next few months is “very real” and can be achieved with “reasonableness and flexibility on both sides”. (BBC)
  • JPMorgan forecasts UK FY23 GDP -0.1% (prev. forecast -0.3%). Raises BoE Q2-2023 rate forecast to 4.50% (prev. 4.25%).

NOTABLE DATA

  • UK Retail Sales MM (Dec) -1.0% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. -0.4%, Rev. -0.5%); Ex-Fuel MM (Dec) -1.1% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. -0.3%, Rev. -0.3%)
  • ONS: Between 2021 and 2022, retail sales volumes fell by 3.0%, as the lifting of restrictions on hospitality led to a return to eating out, and rising prices and the cost of living affected sales volumes.
  • UK Retail Sales YY (Dec) -5.8% vs. Exp. -4.1% (Prev. -5.9%, Rev. -5.7%); Ex-Fuel YY (Dec) -6.1% vs. Exp. -4.4% (Prev. -5.9%, Rev. -5.6%)
  • UK GfK Consumer Confidence (Jan) -45 vs. Exp. -40 (Prev. -42)

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

  • Fed’s Williams (voter) said US inflation is too high and the Fed has more work to do on rate increases, while he added that the Fed must stay the course until inflation is brought back to 2% and still has a way to go on rate increases with the data to drive where the Fed stops raising rates. Williams also noted the destination, not speed, is the key issue for the rate hike question and that the Fed still has lots of room to run on shrinking the balance sheet.
  • Click here for the US Early Morning note.

GEOPOLITICS

  • US announced the authorisation of security assistance for Ukraine valued at up to USD 2.5bln which includes 59 Bradley fighting vehicles, 90 Stryker armoured personnel carriers and air defence systems.
  • CIA Director Burns travelled to Ukraine’s capital last week and held a secret meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky on Russia’s next steps and the CIA chief told Zelensky that aid will be ‘harder to come by’ in the future, according to Washington Post.
  • Russian Ambassador to the US said Russia has warned the US its approach is leading the world to a catastrophic scenario, according to Sky News Arabia.
  • Russian Kremlin says western tanks will change nothing and will not stop Russia from achieving its goals; sees no hope for improvement in ties with the US.
  • German Foreign Ministry spokesperson says they intend to sanction further IRGC members at Monday’s EU Foreign Ministers meeting.

CRYPTO

  • UAE Foreign Affairs Minister says crypto is to play a major role for UAE trade, via Bloomberg.

APAC TRADE

  • APAC stocks traded higher but with some of the gains limited ahead of mass holiday closures and after the weak performance by global peers due to hawkish ECB rhetoric and headwinds from firm US data.
  • ASX 200 was led by commodity-related stocks as the energy sector was underpinned by the recent rebound in oil prices and with Whitehaven Coal boosted by a 50% jump in its quarterly coal output.
  • Nikkei 225 gradually breached the 26,500 level to the upside after the latest inflation data which mostly printed in line with estimates and showed the fastest pace of increase in Core CPI since 1981.
  • Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were jubilant ahead of the Lunar New Year celebrations and after this week’s record liquidity injection although further upside was capped given the upcoming mass holiday closures with mainland bourses to remain shut throughout the whole of next week, while there was a lack of surprise from the PBoC which maintained its benchmark lending rates.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

  • PBoC 1-Year Loan Prime Rate (Jan) 3.65% vs Exp. 3.65% (Prev. 3.65%)5-Year Loan Prime Rate (Jan) 4.30% vs Exp. 4.30% (Prev. 4.30%)
  • US Treasury staff will visit China in February ahead of a visit by Treasury Secretary Yellen, according to Reuters sources.

DATA RECAP

  • Japanese National CPI YY (Dec) 4.0% vs. Exp. 4.0% (Prev. 3.8%)
  • Japanese National CPI Ex. Fresh Food YY (Dec) 4.0% vs. Exp. 4.0% (Prev. 3.7%); Ex. Fresh Food & Energy YY (Dec) 3.0% vs. Exp. 3.1% (Prev. 2.8%)

1.c FRIDAY/  THURSDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 24.54 PTS OR 0.76%   //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 393.69 PTS OR 1.82%     /The Nikkei closed UP 148.30 PTS OR 0.56%            //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.23%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP TO 6.7830//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP TO 6.7845//    /Oil UP TO 80.49 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 86.37   / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN         ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER

2 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/

///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

a must read…

U.S. Enabling North Korea, So South Korea Wants Nuclear Weapons

Robert Hryniak5:03 PM (24 minutes ago)
to

Given what is happening with a new financial order coming to life that will exclude the USD, how long before South Korea decides to free itself to make its’ own place in that order? As with all empires the crumbling starts far away while rot and corruption eat away the center.

U.S. Enabling North Korea, So South Korea Wants Nuclear Weapons

by Gordon G. Chang

  • We do not have to wonder if Beijing in fact supports North Korea’s weapons programs. China for decades has allowed the North to use Chinese banks to handle proceeds from criminal activities and activities in violation of U.N. sanctions.
  • Such designations [enforcing U.S. money-laundering laws] would put these state banks out of business everywhere outside China.
  • If these banks were to fail, so would China’s state-dominated banking system. The failure of the banking system would undoubtedly mean the end of the Chinese economy and financial system. The end of the Communist Party’s political system could not be far behind.
  • Whatever the effects of designations, the United States needs to enforce its laws. America did not allow Pablo Escobar to run criminal cash through New York, so why does America allow China to do that for North Korea?
  • “The money Kim Jong Un obtains by fraud, computer hacking, and ransomware and which he uses to build bombs to threaten us is being laundered through our banks. We’re giving Xi Jinping and Kim de facto immunity to keep right on doing it.” — Joshua Stanton, expert on North Korean sanctions, to Gatestone.
  • No wonder South Korea’s Yoon is not particularly impressed with America.
  • South Korea is a signatory to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. If Seoul were to develop nuclear weapons, it would have to withdraw.
  • Perhaps South Korea should withdraw. China, also a signatory, has been freely proliferating nuclear weapons technology to dangerous states, such as Pakistan and Iran, in addition to North Korea, and the United States has done little, sometimes nothing. At the same time, Washington repeatedly stopped South Korea and Taiwan from building nukes.
  • Yoon did the world a favor by exposing the folly of America’s nonproliferation policy. Washington needs to stop being afraid of Beijing and start defending allies such as South Korea — and itself.
South Korea’s president has just told the world that he no longer has confidence in the United States. “It’s possible that the problem gets worse and our country will introduce tactical nuclear weapons or build them on our own,” said President Yoon Suk Yeol (pictured) on January 11. (Photo by Jeon Heon-Kyun – Pool/Getty Images)

South Korea’s president has just told the world that he no longer has confidence in the United States.

“It’s possible that the problem gets worse and our country will introduce tactical nuclear weapons or build them on our own,” said President Yoon Suk Yeol on January 11, at a joint briefing by his country’s defense and foreign ministries. “If that’s the case, we can have our own nuclear weapons pretty quickly, given our scientific and technological capabilities.”

America has a treaty obligation to defend the Republic of Korea, as South Korea is formally known, and Washington has extended its “nuclear umbrella” to protect it. In other words, the U.S. has pledged it will, if necessary, launch its most destructive weapons at those attacking South Korea. For Yoon to announce that his government might have to arm itself with nukes, therefore, is to in effect announce that he does not trust Washington to honor its word.

Not trust America? That is something America’s friends may say in private — NATO allies all the time muttered that in private during the Cold War, for instance — but it is not something America’s friends officially say in public, which is what the pro-American Yoon just did.

And Yoon has reason to be distrustful. As David Maxwell of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies told Gatestone, “Today, even a blind man can read the tea leaves and know that [North Korean dictator] Kim Jong Un will not denuclearize despite the fact that his policies have been an abject failure.”

One of the most destitute states in the world has consistently gotten the better of the most powerful nation in history. American presidents from Bill Clinton to Joe Biden have completely failed to stop the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) from building nuclear weapons and intercontinental ballistic missiles.

The failure to stop North Korea has consequences. The North Koreans, for instance, at any time they want, can turn South Korea into a radioactive slab. Furthermore, the North’s Hwasong-17 can reach any part of the United States, and the missile will be able to land a nuclear warhead soon, if it cannot do so already.

There are many reasons for this American failure, but the most important is that Washington had for decades placed more importance in integrating China’s Communist Party into the international system than in disarming North Korea. President George W. Bush, for example, put Beijing at the center of the world’s efforts to defang Pyongyang by allowing it to run the ill-fated Six-Party Talks, from 2003 to 2009. During that period, Chinese officials used their central role in the negotiations to protect their only formal military ally, North Korea. Even today, the U.S. is still hoping to work with Beijing to rein in the Kim regime, which the Communist Party has no intention of doing. As a result of its efforts to enlist the Chinese, the Biden administration is imposing no costs on China for openly supporting Pyongyang’s weaponization efforts.

Why would China support a nuclear North Korea? For just about the same reason it supported the Pakistani nuclear weapons program and today supports the Iranian one. Beijing uses nuclear-armed proxies to keep America and its friends off-balance. The proxies are also good bargaining chips: Just about every time Pyongyang does something provocative, Washington seeks China’s help.

We do not have to wonder if Beijing in fact supports North Korea’s weapons programs. China for decades has allowed the North to use Chinese banks to handle proceeds from criminal activities and activities in violation of U.N. sanctions.

The Trump administration in June 2017 finally lost patience and, pursuant to Section 311 of the USA PATRIOT Act, designated China’s Bank of Dandong to be of “primary money laundering concern.” The designation meant the bank could no longer clear dollar transactions through New York.

Yet Trump in 2018 decided not to enforce money-laundering laws against two of the “Big Four” Chinese banks, Agricultural Bank of China and China Construction Bank, which were handling suspicious transactions for North Korea. Another of the Big Four, Bank of China, has been caught red-handed hiding DPRK cash.

Such designations would put these state banks out of business everywhere outside China.

If these banks were to fail, so would China’s state-dominated banking system. The failure of the banking system would undoubtedly mean the end of the Chinese economy and financial system. The end of the Communist Party’s political system could not be far behind.

Whatever the effects of designations, the United States needs to enforce its laws. America did not allow Pablo Escobar to run criminal cash through New York, so why does America allow China to do that for North Korea?

Today, Pyongyang is still using Chinese banks. “Recent U.S. government advisories confirm that China is still the main enabler of North Korea’s money laundering,” Joshua Stanton, who has assisted Congress on drafting North Korea sanctions, told Gatestone this month. “The Biden administration has yet to impose a significant penalty on a major Chinese bank or corporation for violating North Korea sanctions.”

“This failure is a choice,” said Stanton, who also writes on North Korea sanctions issues at One Free Korea, to this publication last year. “The money Kim Jong Un obtains by fraud, computer hacking, and ransomware and which he uses to build bombs to threaten us is being laundered through our banks. We’re giving Xi Jinping and Kim de facto immunity to keep right on doing it.”

No wonder South Korea’s Yoon is not particularly impressed with America.

Yoon tried to walk back his words on the day after his stunning remarks. “The most important part of his comments yesterday was that, as a realistic measure at the moment, it’s important to effectively strengthen extended deterrence within the security alliance between South Korea and the United States,” said an unnamed official from Yoon’s office to reporters. “However, when it comes to security, the worst-case scenario must always be taken into consideration, and from that perspective, he was making his commitment and determination ever clearer to protect the people as commander-in-chief against the escalating threat of North Korea’s nuclear weapons.”

South Korea is a signatory to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. If Seoul were to develop nuclear weapons, it would have to withdraw.

Perhaps South Korea should withdraw. China, also a signatory, has been freely proliferating nuclear weapons technology to dangerous states, such as Pakistan and Iran, in addition to North Korea, and the United States has done little, sometimes nothing. At the same time, Washington repeatedly stopped South Korea and Taiwan from building nukes.

Yoon did the world a favor by exposing the folly of America’s nonproliferation policy. Washington needs to stop being afraid of Beijing and start defending allies such as South Korea — and itself.

Gordon G. Chang is the author of The Coming Collapse of China, a Gatestone Institute distinguished senior fellow, and a member of its Advisory Board.

end

2B JAPAN

END

3c CHINA /

CHINA/ECONOMY

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS/UK AFFAIRS//

FRANCE

One million workers hit the French streets as they are angry at Macron’s pension reform

(zerohedge)

Over 1 Million Workers Hit French Streets Against Macron’s Pension Reform

FRIDAY, JAN 20, 2023 – 02:45 AM

President Macron’s retirement and pension reform program has unleashed the expected mass demonstrations, strikes, and likely soon to be riots on the streets of France. 

The much anticipated reform bill headed through parliament will see the official retirement age rise by two years, from the age of 62 to 64. And just like that, it’s popping off… as French authorities brace for more chaos in the coming weeks. Previously, the unions promised the “mother of all battles”.

It’s popping off in France after Macron’s government elected to raise the retirement age by 2 years to 64.pic.twitter.com/PSg64oFs2W— Citizen Free Press (@CitizenFreePres) January 19, 2023

As a result, public transport has seen significant disruptions in service, while many schools are already closed, amid some 200+ well-attended protests all across France on Thursday. 

Various forms of public transport were brought to a standstill in Paris, Toulouse, Marseille, Nantes and Nice, due to the strikes, and the Eiffel Tower was closed to visitors as well as the protests spread.

Eight major unions had designated Thursday the “first day of strikes and protests” – with promises of many more to come.

France’s education ministry said that over 40% of primary school teachers, as well as one-third of high school teachers are participating in the strikes, forcing many to close their doors for the day, and possibly weeks ahead.

🇫🇷✊ Mass strikes against pension reform have begun in France – Le Figaro.

Mass strikes and protests against the pension reform have begun in almost all cities of France, according to which the retirement age is planned to be increased from 62 to 64 years. pic.twitter.com/GePf11tW48— AZ 🛰🌏🌍🌎 (@AZgeopolitics) January 19, 2023

French rail authority SNCF reported a “severe disruption” across the country, with metro lines in the capital having to implement partial closures. “On some rail lines, as few as one in 10 services were operating, while the Paris metro was running a skeleton service,” BBC reported.

A reported over one million people total are believed to have participated in Thursday’s protests and strikes, according to the unions, which plan to keep up the intense pressure until Macron’s bill is defeated.

WATCH – France face strikes, widespread protests over pension changespic.twitter.com/1pXinUO0Q1— Insider Paper (@TheInsiderPaper) January 19, 2023

Likely the demonstrations will get more and more radical and violent, as French protests tend to go

All the country’s unions – including so-called “reformist” unions that the government had hoped to win to its side – have condemned the measure, as have the left-wing and far-right oppositions in the National Assembly.

“On Thursday the walls of the Élysée palace must tremble,” Communist Party leader Fabien Roussel said on Tuesday.

In many places, crowds clashed with police, who deployed riot control measures including tear gas and batons, as they struggled to clear streets against vastly superior numbers.

🇫🇷 French workers walked off their jobs Thursday in an attempt to derail a planned pension reform that would see the retirement age pushed up by two years to 64.

How is the strike expected to impact France? FRANCE 24’s @smougin explains ⤵ pic.twitter.com/S0YDH7hPRR— FRANCE 24 English (@France24_en) January 19, 2023

Pleased with the huge turnout, the major unions are planning another nationwide strike and demonstration for January 31st.

end

END

5.UKRAINE RUSSIA//MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

RUSSIA/UKRAINE//USA

This is a horrible idea; USA is considering helping Ukraine strike Crimea.  This is a huge red line in the sand

(DeCamp/Antiwar.com)

US Considering Helping Ukraine Strike Crimea

THURSDAY, JAN 19, 2023 – 09:00 PM

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

The New York Times reported Wednesday that the US is warming to the idea of helping Ukraine strike Crimea, something the Biden administration has previously avoided due to the risk of provoking a major response from Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Citing unnamed US officials, the report said that after months of discussions with Ukrainian officials, the administration is now “starting to concede that Kyiv may need the power to strike the Russian sanctuary, even if such a move increases the risk of escalation.”

President Biden is still holding off sending the longer-range missiles that could hit targets in Crimea that Ukraine is seeking. But the US is discussing with Ukrainian officials how to attack the land bridge to Crimea Russia has secured for itself using US-provided weapons, such as US-provided HIMARS rocket systems and Bradley Fighting Vehicles.

The US, for the first time, pledged to send 50 Bradleys in a possibly $3 billion weapons package that was announced earlier this month. The Bradleys could potentially help Ukraine go on the offensive, and a US official said the HIMARS could be used to hit Russian supply lines coming out of Crimea from Ukraine’s line in Kherson.

A senior US official told the Times that US and Ukrainian officials are set to meet in Germany this week to wargame out a potential offensive against Russia in southern Ukraine. But the report said that even with the additional military aid, the Biden administration doesn’t think Ukraine can actually take Crimea from Russia.

The US thinking is that Crimea needs to be under threat to give Ukraine leverage for any future negotiations. Even though the risk of escalation is extremely high, US officials said there has been a “dampening of fears that targeting Crimea would drive Mr. Putin to use a tactical nuclear weapon.”

The lessening concern about Putin resorting to nukes appears to be based only on the fact that he hasn’t used any up to this point. This reflects a December report from The Times of London that said the Pentagon was tacitly backing Ukrainian attacks inside Russia because Putin didn’t respond to earlier attacks with a tactical nuclear weapon or by attacking NATO territory.

The New York Times report quoted Dara Massicot, a researcher from the RAND Corporation, who claimed that “Crimea has already been hit many times without a massive escalation from the Kremlin.” But Massicot’s claim is false as Russia began launching missile strikes on vital Ukrainian infrastructure in response to the October truck bombing of the Crimean Bridge.

Before the bridge bombing, Russia didn’t launch large-scale attacks on infrastructure in Ukraine, but now such bombardments have become routine, and millions of Ukrainians are struggling to power and heat their homes.

US officials admit that they don’t know how Putin would respond to the US supporting Ukrainian attacks on Crimea. Putin has previously warned he could use nuclear weapons to protect Russia’s “territorial integrity,” and Russia’s military doctrine allows for the use of nuclear weapons if the country faces an “existential threat.”

end

More money to these Ukrainian crooks?

(zerohedge)

US Finalizing Next Ukraine Military Aid Package At $2.6 Billion

THURSDAY, JAN 19, 2023 – 10:40 PM

The US is in the final stages of preparing a massive new military aid package to Ukraine which will total as much as $2.6 billion, the Associated Press previewed Wednesday night, and its to include nearly 100 Stryker combat vehicles – marking the first time the Stryker will be introduced to the Ukrainian battlefield – and at least 50 Bradley Fighting Vehicles.

It could be announced by the end of the week, and is expected to rank among the biggest single packages unveiled since the start of the war. When pressed for further details, State Department spokesman Ned Price simply said, “Two words: stay tuned.”

Similar to Bradley vehicles, the Stryker moves infantry across the battlefield, but are lighter and faster than the Bradley. “What we’re trying to look at is the mix of armored and mechanized forces that make sense,” undersecretary of defense for policy Colin Kahl said separately on Wednesday.

The Russians are really digging in. They’re digging in. They’re digging trenches, they’re putting in these dragon’s teeth, laying mines. They’re really trying to fortify that that FLOT, that forward line of troops,” Kahl continued.

“To enable the Ukrainians to break through given Russian defenses, the emphasis has been shifted to enabling them to combine fire and maneuver in a way that will prove to be more effective.”

But the real question is whether Washington will sign off on going past the ‘light tanks’ or mere troop carriers that it has currently limited itself to providing. The Scholz government of Germany surprised allies this week in saying it’s ready to approve sending German-manufactured Leopard tanks to Ukraine only if Washington leads the way in approving its own heavy tanks.

“Germany won’t allow allies to ship German-made tanks to Ukraine to help its defense against Russia nor send its own systems unless the U.S. agrees to send American-made battle tanks, senior German officials said on Wednesday,” according to The Wall Street Journal on Wednesday.

But given Berlin knew that the Biden administration has shut the door on approving American M1 Abrams (at least for now), this could have been a ploy to effectively end the debate and take the pressure off the Scholz government.

END

RUSSIA/OIL/EUROPE

Despite the sanctions, Russia remains the top seaborne oil supplier to Europe:

(OilPrice.com/Kennedy)

Russia Remains Top Seaborne Oil Supplier To Europe Despite Sanctions

FRIDAY, JAN 20, 2023 – 05:00 AM

By Charles Kennedy of Oilprice.com,

While the European Union’s seaborne imports of Russian crude oil declined by just over 12% last year, Russia still enjoyed status as the top seaborne oil supplier to the bloc, despite sanctions…

According to data from maritime sector brokerage firm Banchero Costa, last year saw the EU import 98.8 million tonnes of Russian crude via sea, down from 112.5 million tonnes in 2021 and 128.5 million tonnes in 2019.

For 2022, Russia still accounted for 21.9% of European seaborne imports of Russian crude, followed by the North Sea, which accounted for 17% and North Africa, at 15.4%.

North Sea shipments of oil to Europe were up by 19.2% year-on year, and well above 2019 numbers, while North African shipments of oil to Europe increased by 6%. Shipments from West Africa to Europe were up by 27.5% for 2022. The United States saw a 43.1% increase of crude oil exports to Europe for a record 51.4 million tonnes.

But the biggest surge came from the Arabian Gulf, registering a 76.4% increase year-on-year in 2022, though this is still down from the levels of 2019, while the U.S. exports to Europe were record-breaking.

Overall, Banchero said, citing Refinitiv data, “2022 has turned out to be a very positive year for crude oil trade, despite the surging oil prices and risks of economic recession”.

Globally, the data shows an 8.5% increase in total crude oil loadings, year-on-year. Total loadings came in at 2,047.3 million compared to 1,886.3 million for 2021 and 2,110.5 million tonnes for 2019.

Though Russia has seen its exports to the EU decline by over 12% last year, the data shows that overall it saw an increase in exports by 10.3% to 2018.5 million tonnes. That figure is only slightly below 2019 levels.

Likewise, the United States also experienced a surge in exports of crude oil, gaining over 22% in the twelve months of 2022, as did Saudi Arabia, showing an over 17% increase.

This compares to West Africa and the North Sea, both of which saw a decline in oil exports for 2022.

On the demand side of the equation, China’s intake of seaborne crude oil overall dropped by 3.6% last year, while India saw the reverse: an 11.7% increase in imports.

end

the big meeting at Ramstein!.  Germany so far says no to tanks

(zerohedge)

UKRAINE/RUSSIA/GERMANY/NATO

Germany Says ‘Nein’ On Tanks At Allies’ Big Ramstein Meeting

FRIDAY, JAN 20, 2023 – 10:35 AM

Is that a definitive nein on tanks? New German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius in fresh statements has confirmed that defense leaders gathered for a much anticipated meeting in Ramstein failed to achieve consensus on tanks for Ukraine

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin was present for the meeting which reportedly involved top military officials from some 50 nations, most of them NATO, who met to coordinate the path forward in arming Ukraine. There’s been intense, uneasy back-and-forth this week between Berlin and Washington on the question of supplying Western-manufactured heavy tanks to Kiev, namely the Leopard as well as M1 Abrams. Hawks among the alliance have seen Berlin as essentially standing in the way.

“Today, we can all not yet say when a decision will be made about Leopard and what this decision will look like,” German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said at the end of the Ramstein Air Base meeting.

Amid accusations that Germany is waffling and thus weakening Western allies’ resolve, Pistorius continued, “We are not really hesitating we are just very carefully balancing all the pros and contra [cons] — we are not talking just about delivering anything to anybody, this is a new kind of measure we would choose, so we have to be careful because we have a duty to look carefully and intensively at what might be the consequences for anybody in that conflict.”

While there was agreement to boost military aid to Ukraine among the allies gathered for the meeting, CNBC underscores that “Germany wavered on further EU tank deliveries despite mounting calls from Kyiv and fellow allies.”

The German defense minister continued, according to the remarks translated by CNBC:

“I must say there is very clearly no unanimous opinion. The impression that has occasionally been made that there is a closed coalition and Germany stands in the way of this is wrong. There are many allies who say we share the opinion that I explained here today again, there are good reasons for the delivery and there are good reasons against it.”

Going into the meeting it was widely reported days ago that Berlin has told European allies that it will authorize Leopard tanks only if Washington first leads the way with supply its own Abrams tanks. But the Biden administration has shut the door on these heavy, advanced tanks for the time being.

Multiple NATO countries have been on standby after expressing willingness to send the highly sophisticated German-made Leopard tanks to Ukraine, namely, Poland, Denmark and Finland – but Berlin has to sign off on it first.

President Zelensky spoke to the meeting via video link, making an urgent plea for the group to sign off on tanks. Central to this question is German decision-making

Ukraine’s president has pleaded with Germany and western allies to send their battle tanks to Kyiv, amid speculation that Berlin would allow German-made Leopard 2s to be re-exported by other countries but not necessarily send any of its own stock.

Volodymyr Zelenskiy, speaking via video link at the opening of a meeting of Ukraine-supporting defence ministers from 50 countries in Ramstein, Germany, said it was “in your power” to at least make a decision in principle to send tanks.

Zelensky further argued that “Russia is concentrating its forces, last forces, trying to convince everyone that hatred can be stronger than the world.” In typical fashion he made an emotional appeal at one point, also expressing frustration

But alas, it seems that for the moment at least, Germany is opting for the more cautious – and we should add saner approach – of not wanting to provoke WW3 by pouring advanced Western tanks into the grinding conflict despite the emotional appeals out of Kiev, also the in face of Kremlin ‘red line’ warnings. Finally, a rare and rational slow-down in the rush of the past weeks to pour heavier weapons in, which in the case of pulling the trigger on tanks and jets… there would be no turning back.

* * * 

German public opinion is on the side of not escalating confrontation with Russia…

UKRAINE/ RUSSIA/POLAND

Mysl Polska: Polish authorities will throw the population into war with Russia for the sake of NATO – Rossa Primavera International News

Robert Hryniak10:15 AM (13 minutes ago)
to

As i have cautioned before Poland is the next sacrificial lamb for slaughter. And while it will not accomplish anything but extension of conflict it has been decided.
Time to bail if one can because it will be far worse than what is occurring in the  Ukraine. As Russian standoff weapon systems will be used and opened we should not rule out nukes.
Ultimately, this will lead to a collapse of the EU as we know today. What comes from its’ demise will likely be the rebirth of a new Europe. And American hegemony will take a hit.
As for Zelensky the tide is turning and the brain washed Ukrainians are waking up quickly as to actual losses and lies. You only have to speak to front line soldiers to understand they hate him and his Azov buddies. In the not too far future bot will run or be killed, leaving Poland to take the heat of proxy war. As in most of Europe there is no desire for war or slaughter. And Germany will soon see a new avalanche of refugees from Ukraine and Poland.
A remarkable waste of talent and money and lives for naught.

http://eu.eot.su/2023/01/19/mysl-polska-polish-authorities-will-throw-the-population-into-war-with-russia-for-the-sake-of-nato/

END

UKRAINE/RUSSIA/CANADA

(SPECIAL THANKS TO rOBERT h FOR SENDING THIS TO US:

Freeland Tells WEF Russia’s Defeat Would ‘Boost’ Economy

Robert Hryniak3:52 PM (3 minutes ago)
to

Another NUTBAR speaks. From what the grapevine says Canada is lucky to have 10-12 tanks at best to donate, and that is not without work. How she can justify buying $400M US worth of anti missiles systems to donate with borrowed money is a mystery?  While children as young as 12 are found living on Canadian streets homeless. 

What should be clear to the Russians that while Ukrainians are the cannon fodder flavor of the day, all of NATO seems willing to borrow money and donate old equipment lacking any real industrial capacity to wage war believing it makes a difference. Russians must be amused at the willingness of such actions to exhaust themselves both in non existent cash and manpower and obsolete equipment. 

Should we believe an escalation of manpower will be different? Sure more people will die on both sides and the NATO forces still will not win. So what then? Surely more escalation with the same flawed logic? Perhaps and maybe somewhere common sense may prevail. Why? Because if this goes to a nuclear threshold then we should understand that a Russian responsive strike will and must reduce NATO’s retaliatory capability to ZERO BOUND with the first SALVO otherwise the game will end in a draw with a destroyed world. 

We should be mindful and expressive of a desire for peace over certain death. As for the likes of politicians who so readily spend borrowed money on foreign soil we need to ask who they work for, because it cannot be for the citizens. 

https://www.theepochtimes.com/freeland-tells-wef-russias-defeat-would-boost-economy_4995130.html

6/GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

Vaccine//Covid issues: Injuries

CDC Knowingly Left Serious Adverse Events Off Post-Vaccination Surveys, Documents Show

THURSDAY, JAN 19, 2023 – 11:00 PM

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) didn’t include serious adverse events like heart inflammation on post-vaccination surveys even though the agency knew the issues could be linked to COVID-19 vaccines, documents show.

Even before the surveys were rolled out in December 2020 after the first vaccines were authorized, the CDC knew that myocarditis—a form of heart inflammation since confirmed as being caused by the Pfizer and Moderna shots—and other serious adverse events were of “special interest” when it came to the vaccines, according to a newly disclosed version of the protocol for the survey system.

The Nov. 19, 2020, protocol (pdf) for V-safe, the survey system, lists myocarditis, stroke, death, and a dozen “prespecified medical conditions.” The protocol was obtained by the Informed Consent Action Network (ICAN), a nonprofit that seeks transparency around health information. All of the conditions can cause severe symptoms.

V-safe is a system of surveys that was introduced during the COVID-19 pandemic to monitor vaccine safety. It was developed and is managed by the CDC.

Updated versions of the protocol list the same 15 adverse events.

None of the conditions were included in the actual surveys.

Respondents could check boxes if they experienced certain symptoms, but only 10 lower-level problems such as fever and nausea were listed as options.

It’s deeply troubling that the CDC would construct V-safe in a manner that does not permit it to be able to easily assess the rate of harm from adverse events the CDC had already identified as potentially being caused by these products,” Aaron Siri, a lawyer representing ICAN, told The Epoch Times. “This calls into question what the CDC was really trying to accomplish with V-safe. Was it trying to assess the actual safety of these products? Or was it trying to design a system that would be more likely to affirm its previous public pronouncements regarding the safety of these products?”

The CDC did not respond to a request for comment for this article.

V-Safe Data Finally Made Public

The CDC rolled V-safe out in December 2020. Americans were told to use the surveys, which are only available through smartphones, to report how they felt after vaccination.

“Through V-safe, you can quickly tell CDC if you have any side effects after getting the COVID-19 vaccine,” one poster promoting the tool stated.

Users were asked how they felt, whether they had a fever, their temperature, and common symptoms. They were also asked whether they were unable to work or go about their daily activities, and whether they needed medical care.

About 10 million people signed up through July 31, 2022.

The CDC has described the results of V-safe in multiple studies, but refused to release the raw data until ICAN brought litigation against it. Data released to ICAN in October 2022 showed that more than 3.2 million people sought medical attention or missed school, work, or other normal activities following vaccination.

The CDC posted some of the v-safe data on Dec. 1, 2022, several months after a self-imposed deadline passed.

Hiding Free-Text Entries

V-safe users could report the serious adverse events, but only if they wrote them out in a free-text field.

The prompt was, “Any other symptoms or health conditions you want to report.”

The CDC has resisted releasing the results from the field, insisting that it would be too onerous to review the 6.8 million entries for personally identifiable information (PII), according to a joint status report made to the court in November 2022.

The agency declined a request from ICAN to provide a random sample of a few hundred entries, which plaintiffs say would back their argument that the entries likely hold little or no PII such as names and addresses.

The entries are important because they would show how many respondents reported experiencing the prespecified adverse events like heart inflammation.

The CDC instead offered to review all the entries and convert them into medical codes, according to the filing.

“It was apparently willing to do this because, even though it would have been more time consuming and complex then simply reviewing for PII, this approach would permit the CDC to hide from the public most of what is actually written in the free-text fields,” ICAN said in the document.

Read more here…

end

In case you missed this

“What About The Sudden Deaths?”: Pfizer CEO Confronted At Davos Over COVID-19 Vaccine

FRIDAY, JAN 20, 2023 – 01:25 PM

While attention is now firmly shifting towards the scandalous Covid-19 vaccine rollout (and top-down censorship campaign), Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla has been largely insulated from criticism by legacy media outlets. Until now.

Canadian outlet Rebel News caught up with Bourla this week on the streets of Davos, where they peppered him with a list of uncomfortable questions.

As Rebel CEO Ezra Lavant writes:

You know, there are hundreds of “accredited” journalists here at the World Economic Forum — the biggest names in news, from CNN to the New York Times. But you have to understand: they’re all here as WEF members, not to hold the WEF to account. They’re on Pfizer’s team. They would never ask Pfizer a tough question.

I really don’t think their CEO knew what hit him today.

Watch:  https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/what-about-sudden-deaths-pfizer-ceo-confronted-davos-over-covid-19-vaccine

Here’s a full list of questions asked via Rebel News:

  • When did you know that the vaccines didn’t stop transmission?
  • How long did you know that without saying it publicly?
  • Why did you keep it a secret that your vaccine did not stop transmission? 
  • You said it was 100% effective then 90% and 80%, then 70% — but now we know that vaccines do not stop transmission. Why did you keep that a secret?
  • Is it time to apologize to the world? To give refunds back to the countries that poured all their money into a vaccine that doesn’t work?
  • Are you ashamed of what you’ve done in the last couple of years?
  • Are you proud of what you’ve done the past few years?
  • You’ve made millions off the backs of people’s livelihoods, how does it feel to walk the streets as a millionaire on the backs of the regular person at home in Australia, in England and Canada?
  • What do you think about on your yacht? What do you think about on your private jet?
  • Are you worried about product liability?
  • Are you worried about myocarditis?
  • What about the sudden deaths?
  • What do you ahve to say about young men dropping dead from heart attacks every day?
  • Why won’t you answer these basic questions? No apology?
  • Do you think you should be charged criminally for some of the behaviour you’ve been a part of?
  • How much money have you personally made off the vaccine?
  • How many boosters do you think it’ll take for you to be happy enough with your earnings?
  • Who did you meet with here in secret?
  • Will you disclose who you met with?
  • Who did you pay commissions to?
  • In the past, Pfizer has paid $2.3 billion in fines for deceptive marketing. Have you engaged in that same conduct again?
  • Are you under investigation, like you were before, for deceptive marketing?
  • If any other product in the world doesn’t work as promised, you get a refund. Should you not refund countries that pay billions for your ineffective vaccine?
  • Are you only used to speaking to sympathetic media, is that why you don’t know how to answer questions?

And of course, Bourla answered none of them.

GLOBAL ISSUES;//  

Hackable Humans at WEF: ‘We Can Decode Faces in Your Mind, Your PIN

Robert Hryniak12:58 PM (18 minutes ago)
to

Left unchecked or ignored these folks will drive the human out of humanity as we have known it in the future. For the moment there is more fiction to this than repeatable fact.
Perhaps in George Orwell’s fictional 1984 the concept of “thought police” has already discovered a place to be. Be sure there is extensive research, just like vast sums spent on remote viewing that most people are unaware of.
Still missing are a few links as predicative actions on current or prior thoughts is not achievable without more technology implants. And not everyone is hackable as they think. Nor are humans incapable of thought response as brains can be taught and are adaptive to self defense to block an reading. In the same way that people can learn to think laterally or out of the box as opposed to linear thinking. Hence the phrase “fuzzy logic”, and why quantum healing methodology works only on receptive parties. Remember the phrase, you can lead a horse to water but you cannot make him drink.
Perhaps in the future there will be courses on self mind defense because you can be sure agencies will spend heavily on this.

PAUL ALEXANDER

DANGEROUS Cardiovascular (heart) manifestation in 29% of n=301 Thailand adolescents after Pfizer mRNA COVID-19 vaccination includes tachycardia, palpitation & myopericarditis; Mansanguan et al.

301 persons analyzed; most common cardiovascular symptoms post Pfizer shot tachycardia (7.64%), shortness of breath (6.64%), palpitation (4.32%), chest pain (4.32%), and hypertension (3.99%)

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERJAN 20
 
SAVE▷  LISTEN
 

‘Cardiovascular manifestations were found in 29.24% of patients, ranging from tachycardia or palpitation to myopericarditis.’

SOURCE:

l

https://www.mdpi.com/2414-6366/7/8/196

Did you hear of this key study in Thailand among adolescents? I don’t think so and I spoke in rallies and wrote of this prior but wanted to showcase key findings especially for my new subscribers. The results were shocking and matches what we knew and heard of clinically and across accumulated evidence. Please share.

END

CDC extended vaccine requirement for non-US, non-resident air-travelers into the US; not a problem for Novak Djokovic, just drive or come by sea, or go to Mexico & cross with illegals walking in

Novak Djokovic is naturally immune, this is ridiculous absurd nonsense, all he needs to do is join a group of illegals from Mexico, walk in, & get onto the bus, will get you to NY to play in the OPEN

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERJAN 20
 
SAVE▷  LISTEN
 
END

Jacinda says “she no longer has “enough in the tank” to do the job justice”; New Zealand Prime Minister; I say no, she’s running to the hills for she may face prison for what she did with COVID lunacy

emotional? shove it Jacinda, shed tears first for those who died in New Zealand for your lunacy and COVID dictatorship ex cathedra tendencies; your lockdown policies killed people; JUSTICE!

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERJAN 20
 
SAVE▷  LISTEN
 

This Prime Minister as did the Australian and Canadian etc. Prime Ministers hurt their people and devastated their people. Harmed them with lockdowns and vaccine. Devastated. She must before she departs, instruct that all the COVID vaccines must be stopped now. Immediate. The healing will begin.

We must not forget what she has done and ensure her policies are examined and investigated fully. People died due to her.

see my prior substack:

Alexander COVID News-Dr. Paul Elias Alexander’s Newsletter

New Zealand’s Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern to step down in February: why do you think? Do you think she suspects that soon, she will be on the hot seat as people REALLY understand the crimes she did?

SOURCE: https://ca.yahoo.com/news/jacinda-ardern-step-down-zealand-010053286.htmlAlexander COVID News-Dr. Paul Elias Alexander’s Newsletter is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber…

Read more

a day ago · 155 likes · 110 comments · Dr. Paul Alexander

Hillary needs to go back into the woods and keep drinking, if this is her view on Jacinda whose actions killed New Zealanders. This is what happens when you are irrelevant, you spew garbage like this.

END 

BBC (British Broadcasting Corporation)  stunning news story title: “Lisa Shaw: Presenter’s death due to complications of Covid vaccine”; do not forget Lisa & this statement on why she died!

radio presenter died due to complications from the AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccine; fact is that the spike protein is the deadly portion of the virus, synthetic or via infection; what about the mRNA?

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERJAN 20
 
SAVE▷  LISTEN
 

SOURCE:

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-tyne-58330796

END

bbc:

Lisa Shaw: Presenter’s death due to complications of Covid vaccine

Lisa Shaw BBC Radio Newcastle
Image caption,Lisa Shaw was a presenter on BBC Radio Newcastle until her death in May

A radio presenter died due to complications from the AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccine, a coroner has found.

Lisa Shaw, who worked for BBC Radio Newcastle, died at the age of 44 in May after developing headaches a week after getting her first dose of the vaccine.

Newcastle coroner Karen Dilks heard Ms Shaw suffered blood clots in the brain which ultimately led to her death.

The inquest heard the condition linked to the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine was very rare.

The coroner said: “Lisa died due to complications of an AstraZeneca Covid vaccination.”

Ms Dilks said Ms Shaw was previously fit and well but concluded that it was “clearly established” that her death was due to a very rare “vaccine-induced thrombotic thrombocytopenia”, a condition which leads to swelling and bleeding of the brain.

‘Severe headache’

Ms Shaw, a mother of one from Consett, received her first dose of the vaccine on 29 April.

On 13 May she was taken by ambulance to University Hospital of North Durham after having a headache for several days.

In a statement, Dr John Holmes who treated her said she complained of having a “severe headache shooting and stabbing” across her forehead and behind her eyes.

Tests were carried out and blood clots were found in her brain, prompting her to be moved to the neurology specialist unit at Newcastle’s Royal Victoria Infirmary (RVI).

The clots are considered extremely rare – there have been 417 reported cases and 72 deaths – after 24.8 million first doses and 23.9 million second doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine in the UK.

Dr Christopher Johnson, a consultant in anaesthetics and intensive care at the RVI, said Ms Shaw had been conscious for several days and had been treated for the clots with drugs which seemed to be successful.

‘Do the same thing’

But on the evening of 16 May Ms Shaw said the headaches were worse and she had difficulty speaking.

Scans showed she had suffered a haemorrhage in the brain and after her condition deteriorated, part of her skull was removed to try and relieve the pressure inside her head.

Her condition continued to worsen and despite more surgery and treatments, she died on 21 May.

Dr Johnson said doctors were in a daily conference with a national panel about vaccine-induced thrombotic thrombocytopenia, the condition Ms Shaw was believed to be suffering from.

Asked if he would have changed the treatments given to Ms Shaw, he said: “No.”

Dr Johnson said The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (Nice) published guidelines on how to treat the condition in July which matched the treatment Ms Shaw received.

“Lisa got all the treatments that were recommended in the order they were recommended,” he said.

“If we had the same presentation tomorrow we would do the same thing.”

‘Very rare’

Dr Tuomo Polvikoski, a consultant neuro-pathologist who examined Ms Shaw after her death, said given her history of being fit and healthy with no medical problems, it was “surprising” she died of blood clots and bleeding in the brain.

He said “timewise” it “seems most likely” her death was “indeed vaccine induced”.

Ms Dilks said the condition was “very rare” but agreed with Dr Polvikoski’s findings.

After the hearing, Ms Shaw’s family said in a statement: “This is another difficult day in what has been a devastating time for us.

“The death of our beloved Lisa has left a terrible void in our family and in our lives.

“She truly was the most wonderful wife, mum, daughter, sister and friend.”

The Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency’s chief safety officer, Dr Alison Cave, said it would be “reviewing” the coroner’s verdict.

“The benefits of the Covid-19 vaccine AstraZeneca continue to outweigh the risks for most people,” she said.

“It is therefore still vitally important that people come forward for their vaccination and for their second dose when invited to do so.

/VACCINE IMPACT

VACCINE INJURY

SLAY NEWS//

MICHAEL EVERY/RABOBANK

“Corporations Need To Find A New, Inhabited Planet To Avoid Wage Inflation Issues”

FRIDAY, JAN 20, 2023 – 10:54 AM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Stocks lost more of their early-2023 “Let’s do the opposite of 2022!” enthusiasm yesterday after another coordinated round of central-bank speech.

In Europe, ECB President Lagarde followed up on earlier comments backing multiple 50bp rate hikes ahead to stress that she would “stay the course”, implying there will be more advances and no retreat, no surrender. That is certainly a better market quote that the recent one in relation to the ECB being under fire over its inflation performance from its own staff, where she said, “If it wasn’t for [the Executive Board] I’d be a sad, lonely cowgirl lost somewhere in the Pampa of monetary policy.” Why does ‘The Woman of La Pampa’ now spring to my mind? Why am I humming ‘Dream the impossible dream?’

In the US, Vice-Fed Chair Brainard, a dove, peppered her comments with if and buts and candy and nuts, but still ended up with the same phrase: “stay the course”. That again implies more hikes to come and then a long hiatus, not the imminent reversal markets are pricing for. Indeed, Lagarde gave a specific warning to markets to re-price their expectations of chocolate and fries for dinner, to refer back to a calorific Global Daily from earlier this week.

Crude oil prices edged up again, with WTI back over $80 and Brent at $86. Imagine what they might have done if the ECB and Fed and both said they were about to hit an obstacle on their chosen course, and would be retreating, while throwing chocolate and fries at us. Of course central banks can’t U-turn against that backdrop, and of course asset markets don’t want to admit that. (“We will cut rates if energy allows us to.” “We will have a bumper year if energy allows central banks to allow us to.” You won’t find much of that in 2023 market outlooks, I suspect.)

True, a Qatari official made clear they don’t want to see energy prices too high, because that ends up blowing back at them via inflation, and blowing things up generally. What they want is reduced volatility. But is that consistent with G7 rates going up and down like a yo-yo to juice asset markets? Not so much. Which again implies that ‘staying the course’.

Data-wise, markets were also irritated by US initial claims falling even further, underlining the labor market is not weakening yet. That implies the risk of wage inflation, and so of the higher rates course, and so lower returns for the asset-rich. How irritating that the economy is ostensibly performing well for ordinary working people, not assets!

Relatedly, Bloomberg reports Hong Kong’s post-Covid re-opening has been ‘ruined’ for hospitality businesses by a lack of staff. That is the experience everywhere globally, backing up the ‘ground-breaking’ US study that said Covid was a structural break that changed how things work: rather, it changed what the bottom end of the labor market will work for. That’s even more the case given how far *actual* inflation has risen for those at the bottom end.

In that light, “Let’s do the opposite of 2022!” market trades are ‘A New Hope’ – but omit the line: “I felt a great disturbance in the Market Forces, as if millions of voices suddenly cried out in terror and were suddenly silenced.”

While there may still be global wage differentials for virtue-preaching, profit-maximising Western corporations to exploit –as they seek to end-run striking workers in the UK and France, for example– wherever they shift their workforce to, they are still going to find the same kind of low-end wage pressures ready to explode. For just one example, Thailand’s main opposition party, ahead of 2023 elections, says it will double the country’s minimum wage over the next few years.

Looking round the world, it seems corporations would need to find a new, inhabited planet to avoid wage inflation issues. (That or a deep recession that would also not be good for equities.) So, perhaps it’s not only ultra-high-end tourism and natural resources that space-focused billionaires are thinking of as the economic justification for their orbital jaunts? Indeed, I guarantee you that if we did ever find ‘Little Green Men’, after the initial “We come in peace,” then the not so peaceful national security screening, within minutes somebody would ask, “Does your species know how to assemble a smart phone?”

But for now we are earth-bound: and as such is it going to be central banks or markets who stay their course?

Government will provide part of the answer: the US recently imposed a deal on a key union, and the UK is pushing for ‘no right to strike’ legislation for its public-sector workers, who are striking like swarms of bees in response. Who wins that fight, one wonders? And how does anyone have any real purchasing power if the government does?

Expect more set-piece labor vs. capital clashes ahead, and more of the outright withdrawal of low-end labor currently being seen globally. Both will be as determinative of the actual wage/inflation/rates course from the bottom up as the market’s presumed rates/inflation/wage course looks from the top down.

Let me conclude in noting that unlike the speculation in 90’s slacker movie ‘Clerks’ that minimum-wage contract labor was heavily used on the ‘New Hope’ Death Star that blew up all those voices, the latest Star Wars TV show we are collectively not watching reveals this technological terror was actually built by forced labor. But luckily that’s only sci-fi,… right?

Happy Friday – and may the market forces be with you.

7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES/USA AND GLOBE

This is how Russia has surplus earnings in oil despite the huge sanctions:

(zerohedge)

Traders Book Huge Profits By Mixing, Reselling Cheap Russian Oil

THURSDAY, JAN 19, 2023 – 09:20 PM

A ban on Russian crude oil by the European Union and the US went into effect late last year, forcing Russia to find more buyers in the eastern part of the world. Besides China’s and India’s surging appetite for Russian crude imports, a flood of cheap oil is pouring into Singapore. It’s being blended and then re-exported globally as traders reap huge profits. Recall that Russian energy products were sold to China and repackaged for European markets last summer. 

Before Russia invaded Ukraine, Europe was Moscow’s largest crude and refined petroleum products customer. But those days are over as Western sanctions forced Russia to rejigger its energy supply chains towards the East. 

Moscow realized besides expanding pipelines to Asia and elsewhere, which could take years to develop infrastructure to increase flows, a fleet of shadow tankers would be its best bet to transport the oil. 

Now demand is soaring in Singapore for storage tanks as inexpensive Russian crude finds a home, according to Bloomberg

Tank space in the city-state is being snapped up due to a rise in interest and profits from mixing cheap fuel supplies from Russia with shipments from other sources, according to an executive from a tank operator and a consultant who advises traders on the matter. This process can help to obscure the cargoes’ origins, they said.

Unlike many Western countries, Singapore has yet to ban Russian oil or petroleum products, although banks based in the country are prohibited from financing or dealing directly with Russian countries. 

In the coming weeks, Europe prepares to enforce new sanctions on Russian petroleum products, which will only increase Russia-to-Asia flows that will be pushed to hubs like ones in Singapore, mixing cheap Russian fuels with other sources for re-distribution globally. 

We have observed an increase in the number of inquiries of short/spot-term storage in the period leading up to December,” a spokesman for oil storage company Advario Asia Pacific said via e-mail.

Six-month leases for Singapore fuel oil or crude oil storage jumped by as much as 20% last year, according to local tank operator firms, including Advario, Jurong Port, Horizon, and Royal Vopak. 

Ship tracking data by Vortexa Ltd. showed oil-receiving terminals more than doubled volumes of Russian naphtha and fuel oil in December versus a year ago. Terminals received 2.6 million barrels of naphtha, nearly 40 times higher than the volume one year ago. 

Russian naphtha sitting in Singapore tank farms is being quickly re-exported to other Asia markets, according to Armaan Ashraf, global head of natural gas liquids at industry consultant FGE. 

William Tan, senior vice president of fuel consultancy Miyabi Industries, said Singapore tank farm storage is becoming very popular with traders taking in cheap Russian crude, blending it, and exporting it elsewhere for “very good” profit margins. He said traders are reaping 20% profit margins

Russia will need to expand its shadow fleet tankers as energy supply chains are rejiggered because of Western sanctions. Traders are capitalizing on these new trade flows. Still, the West has yet to cripple Russia but only bring forward a world where energy is traded in anything but dollars.  

END

8.EMERGING MARKETS ISSUES//AUSTRALIA ISSUES.

END

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:30 AM

EURO VS USA DOLLAR:1.0820  DOWN  .0014 

USA/ YEN 130.23 UP  1.862/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .50% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN  STILL FALLS//

GBP/USA 1.2350 DOWN   0.0043

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 24.54 PTS OR 0.76% 

 Hang Sang CLOSED UP 383.67 POINTS OR 1.82% 

AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.23%  // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN 

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES  ALL GREEN

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED UP 383.67 PTS OR 1.82% 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 24.54 PTS OR 0.76%

AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.23% 

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 148.30 PTS OR 0.56%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1926.75

silver:$23.91

USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 102.14 UP .30  BASIS POINTS from THURSDAY’s close.

 FRIDAY  MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.036% UP 15  in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.401% UP 0 AND 5/10   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.15%// UP 15  in basis points yield 

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.968 UP 23   points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO +2.169% UP 12 BASIS PTS 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY  

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0842 UP 0.0008 or 8 basis points//

USA/Japan: 129.84  UP  1.463  OR YEN DOWN 146  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2382 DOWN.0009 OR  9 BASIS POINTS //

Canadian dollar UP .0058 OR 58 BASIS pts  to 1.3407

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED ..(DOWN) AT 6.7838

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. 6.7797

TURKISH LIRA:  18.81  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.401…VERY DANGEREOUS

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 9 IN basis points from THURSDAY at  3.493% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

 USA 30 yr bond yield   3.662 UP 9 in basis points 

Your closing USA dollar index, 101.91 UP 8  BASIS PTS   ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates  FRIDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 20.40 PTS OR  0.26%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 100.85 POINTS OR 0.68%

Paris CAC CLOSED UP 37,54 PTS OR 0.54% 

Spain IBEX UP 118.40 POINTS OR 1.35%

Italian MIB: CLOSED  UP 151,64  PTS OR  0.59%

WTI Oil price 80.68   12: EST

Brent Oil:  86.77  12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ///   UP TO:  68,83/ ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 3/100       RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.169

UK 10 YR YIELD: 3.390  UP 9 BASIS PTS.

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.0857  UP .0022    OR 22 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.2399 UP   .0008  or  8 basis pts

BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD:  3.388% UP 4 BASIS PTS

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 129.57   UP 1.198////YEN  DOWN 120 BASIS PTS//

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3382 DOWN .0082 (CDN dollar, UP 82 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 81.40

Brent OIL:  87.05

USA 10 yr bond yield UP 9 BASIS pts to 3.484%

USA 30 yr bond yield UP 9 BASIS PTS to 3.660%

USA dollar index:101.76 DOWN 7  BASIS POINTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18.80

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  68.83  DOWN  0 AND  3/100 roubles

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 336/93 PTS OR 1.00% 

NASDAQ 100 UP 323.36 PTS OR 2/86%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 19.70 DOWN 0.82 PTS (4.00)%

GLD: $179.28 DOWN 0.61 OR 0.34%

SLV/ $22.02 UP .06 OR 0.27%

end)

USA trading day in Graph Form

Stocks & Bonds Drop, Commodities & Cryptos Pop As ‘Hard Landing’ Looms

FRIDAY, JAN 20, 2023 – 04:00 PM

As the FedSpeak blackout period begins (and corporate share buyback blackouts accelerate), the markets dealt with a huge options expiration today with notable event risks right ahead in the FOMC with stocks and bond yields surging to end a volatile (holiday-shortened) week.

On the week, rate-trajectory expectations ended marginally lower (dovish) but the last two days have seen Fed jawboning lift the terminal rate and lower rate-cut outlooks…

Source: Bloomberg

US Macro Surprise Index tumbled significantly this week, crushing the ‘soft landing’ narrative…

Source: Bloomberg

On the week, financial conditions ‘tightened’ but remain around as ‘loose’ as they were in June when Fed Funds were 275bps lower…

Source: Bloomberg

With the largest non-quarterly OpEx today, we had a feeling something big was going to happen and stocks screamed higher from the moment the cash markets opened. Nasdaq rallied over 2% today…

Despite today’s surge, stocks ended the week lower (with The Dow back in the red YTD) with Nasdaq the prettiest horse in the glue factory (managing to ramp all the way into the green for the week today) and The Dow dumped over 3% on the week despite today’s melt-up…

After 7 straight days of short-squeeze, ‘most shorted’ stocks reversed on Wednesday and Thursday this week (only to see Friday bring the squeeze back) which left them down modestly on the week…

Source: Bloomberg

Technical levels dominated price action this week with the S&P breaking below its 200DMA and then trading around its 50DMA. Today saw the S&P rally all the way up to its 200DMA perfectly tagging it before stalling…

And Nasdaq flip-flopped between its 50- and 100-DMAs…

The big banks are very mixed since their earnings were announced with Goldman the biggest loser and Morgan Stanley leading the pack…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasuries were dumped for the last two days, erasing the gains from the start of the week and dragging 30Y Yields higher on the week (as the short-end outperformed)

Source: Bloomberg

At the shortest-end of the curve, the T-Bill curve is starting to ‘kink’ around the June/July period in anticipation of the debt-ceiling debacle…

The Dollar ended the week very modestly higher after some noise midweek shifted the greenback out of its narrow range…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos rallied this week with Ethereum outperforming Bitcoin (and Solana leading them all)…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin is up for the 16th day of the last 17 days, closing above $22,000, at its highest since September 2022 (above the November pre-FTX-plunge highs)…

Source: Bloomberg

Commodities were broadly higher on the week with Oil, Gold, and Copper all higher while NatGas ended lower after a very noisy week…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold closed the week at its highest since April 2022, finding support at $1900 numerous times…

Oil prices closed the week at their highest since November with WTI above $81…

Source: Bloomberg

Which means brace yourselves for gas prices at the pump to soar again soon

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, we note that global stocks and bonds are moving in sync like never before, thanks to expectations for a Federal Reserve pivot as well as a Chinese economic rebound.

Source: Bloomberg

As Bloomberg notes, the 120-day rolling correlation between the MSCI ACWI Index for world equities and the Bloomberg flagship gauge for bonds has reached the highest in data going back to 1998. The unusual level suggests the correlation could start to wind down, meaning the two asset classes are likely to start moving in opposite directions.

The market appears to be starting to worry about the debt-ceiling debacle as US sovereign credit risk is soaring…

Source: Bloomberg

…and there’s nothing The Fed can (or will) do about that.

EARLY MORNING TRADING/

EARLY AFTERNOON TRADING//

ii) USA DATA

Another strong indicator that the uSA economy is in trouble; existing home sales suffer its biggest annual drop ever:

(zerohedge)

“Another Difficult Month For Buyers”: US Existing Home Sales Suffer Biggest Annual Drop Ever

FRIDAY, JAN 20, 2023 – 10:11 AM

US existing home sales dropped for the 11th straight month in December (-1.5% MoM – slightly less than expected thanks to downward revisions of previous months), leading to a record 34% drop year-over-year (worse than the worst drop during the Great Financial Crisis)…

Source: Bloomberg

Sales of single-family homes dropped 1.1% from a month earlier to a 3.6 million pace, also the lowest since the end of 2010.

Existing condominium and co-op sales were down 4.5%

That is the longest monthly streak of sales declines in history which dragged the Existing Home Sales SAAR down to 4.02mm, its lowest since Nov 2010 (below the worst month of the COVID lockdowns)…

Source: Bloomberg

This disappointing drop in existing home sales happened despite the fact that mortgage rates have now fallen for three straight months…

Source: Bloomberg

…but obviously remains extremely elevated (still above 2008 levels).

“December was another difficult month for buyers, who continue to face limited inventory and high mortgage rates,” Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, said in a statement.

“However, expect sales to pick up again soon since mortgage rates have markedly declined after peaking late last year.”

The number of homes available for sale fell to 970,000 in the month, the fewest since March.

It would take 2.9 months to sell all the homes on the market, up from 1.7 a year earlier. Realtors see anything below five months of supply as indicative of a tight market.

However, focusing on just single-family home inventories, the US is at 3.4 months supply – the highest since COVID…

Under the hood, The West saw sales unchanged while the rest of the regions saw sales slide:

  • Existing-home sales in the Northeast slid 1.9% from November to an annual rate of 520,000 in December, down 28.8% from December 2021. The median price in the Northeast was $391,400, an increase of 1.6% from the prior year.
  • Existing-home sales in the Midwest fell 1.0% from the previous month to an annual rate of 1.01 million in December, falling 30.3% from one year ago. The median price in the Midwest was $262,000, up 2.9% from December 2021.
  • In the South, existing-home sales slipped 2.2% in December from November to an annual rate of 1.80 million, a 33.1% decrease from the previous year. The median price in the South was $337,900, an increase of 3.5% from this time last year.
  • At an annual rate of 690,000, existing-home sales in the West were unchanged from November but down 43.4% from one year ago. The median price in the West was $557,900, an increase of $200, or less than a tenth of a percent from December 2021.

Notably, 14.5% of all home sales in West are $1MM+ vs just 1.2% in the Midwest

The median selling price was up 2.3% from a year earlier to $366,900, reflecting higher prices in all regions, but is falling on a monthly basis for the last six months…

“Home prices nationwide are still positive, though mildly,” Yun added.

“Markets in roughly half of the country are likely to offer potential buyers discounted prices compared to last year.”

Properties typically remained on the market for 26 days in December, up from 24 days in November and 19 days in December 2021.

Is this enough pain for Powell?

END

III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES

Delinquent loans are now at 2009 levels

(zerohedge)

Auto Crisis Worsens As Rate Of Severely Delinquent Loans Hits 2009 Levels

THURSDAY, JAN 19, 2023 – 08:40 PM

An alarming number of Americans with auto loans are struggling to make monthly payments. Auto loan performance saw further deterioration in December, and loan delinquencies jumped. Of all loans, severely delinquent ones have reached the highest rate since the financial crisis about 15 years ago. 

Recall last month. We pointed out the auto sector finds itself at a critical inflection point as a crushing auto loan crisis nears. The note was titled “Perfect Storm Arrives: “Massive Wave” Of Car Repossessions And Loan Defaults To Trigger Auto Market Disaster, Cripple US Economy.” It provides readers with a roadmap and how the dominos might fall in triggering what Tesla CEO Elon Musk recently warned: “Potentially, the biggest financial crisis ever.” 

New bone-chilling data via Cox Automotive sheds light on the rapidly deteriorating auto loan market. The report said loans delinquent by more than two months increased by 5.3% and jumped 26.7% from a year ago.

And here’s where the alarm bells start sounding:

Of all loans, 1.84% were severely delinquent, which was an increase from 1.74% in November and the highest rate since February 2009.

 In December, 7.11% of subprime loans were severely delinquent, increasing from 6.75% the prior month. The subprime severe delinquency rate was 163 basis points higher than a year ago, and the December rate was the highest in the data series back to 2006.

Cox Automotive said even though an increasing amount of people are missing loan payments — this has yet to manifest into defaults:

 Loan defaults declined 13.5% from November but were up 16.9% from a year ago. The annualized auto loan default rate in December was 2.56%, which was lower than the 2.98% rate in December 2019. The default rate in 2022 was 2.28%, up from a low of 1.98% last year but still lower than the 2.90% rate in 2019.

And perhaps the reason why defaults have yet to surge is that lenders don’t consider the borrower to be in default until 90 to 120 days late of insufficient payments. This might suggest that a default wave could be hitting over the next few quarters as consumers are tapped out by 20 months of negative real wave growth, depleted personal savings, and maxed-out credit cards. All those folks who bought cars they didn’t need nor could afford with +$1,000 monthly payments during Covid will be financially ruined when the next recession hits. 

END

Another power substation damaged by gunfire

(Phillips/EpochTimes)

Another Power Substation Damaged By Alleged Gunfire: Officials

THURSDAY, JAN 19, 2023 – 10:20 PM

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Another power substation in North Carolina was damaged due to alleged gunfire—the third such incident in recent weeks—officials have confirmed.

EnergyUnited said officials discovered an “equipment issue” at the Pleasant Hill Substation in Thomasville on Jan. 17. Thomasville is about an hour from Moore County, where two other substations were damaged.

When crew members were sent to investigate the matter, they “discovered damage to the substation transformer from an apparent gunshot,” the firm said. “The damage was quickly assessed and contained to mitigate the impact to members in the Pleasant Hill area and law enforcement officials were notified.”

Customers who are served by the Pleasant Hill Substation didn’t experience any power outages due to the damage, EnergyUnited added. The Randolph County Sheriff’s Office said that investigators canvassed the station and later said they believe the shooting occurred at around 3 a.m. local time on Jan. 17.

The FBI and North Carolina State Bureau of Investigations were notified about the alleged gunfire, the sheriff’s office said. Investigations are ongoing.

The FBI’s Joint Terrorism Task Force responded to conduct a parallel investigation,” the statement also said. No suspects have been named, and no arrests were made.

“EnergyUnited continually strives to deliver safe, reliable energy to its members,” Steve McCachern, vice president of energy delivery for EnergyUnited, said in a statement. “While we are glad that our members did not experience any service interruptions, we take this matter very seriously and are currently investigating the incident.”

On Dec. 3, 2022, gunshots were fired at two substations in Moore County that left some 45,000 customers without power for several days. In that case, no suspects have been apprehended and no motive has been disclosed.

Officials said that a person or persons drove to the Duke Energy-operated substations and opened fire, causing significant damage. North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper said at the time that the Moore County incident “raises a new level of threat” while adding that federal and state officials are working to “harden our infrastructure where that’s necessary and work to prevent future damage.”

Duke Energy spokesperson Jeff Brooks said in a news conference last month that damage was done to major equipment.

Some of this equipment does take a significant amount of work [to be installed]” he said. New substation equipment must be handled carefully and tested before it’s ready to serve the grid.

Around the same time, the Department of Homeland Security issued a bulletin warning of a “heightened threat environment” ahead of the Christmas holiday season. Faith-based institutions, government buildings, U.S. infrastructure, schools, and public gatherings could be targeted by groups with “a range of ideological beliefs” and “personal grievances,” the agency said on Nov. 30, 2022.

Nevada Incident

Earlier in January, officials in Nevada said a man was facing terrorism-related charges after driving his car to a solar power plant, dousing it with gasoline, and setting it on fire. An employee told local media that the fire caused “major damage” and estimated it would take two years to receive replacement parts.

Read more here…

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Friday Fun: Alice Debates Mad Hatter And Red Queen On Timing The Recession

FRIDAY, JAN 20, 2023 – 01:00 PM

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Alice challenged the Mad Hatter, the Red Queen, and the March Hare to a debate on whether or not the economy was in a recession…