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HomeJAN 23//GOLD CLOSED UP $.25 TO $1927.05//SILVER IS DOWN 40 CENTS TO...
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JAN 23//GOLD CLOSED UP $.25 TO $1927.05//SILVER IS DOWN 40 CENTS TO $23.44 AS THE BANKERS INITIATED ANOTHER RAID WHICH FAILS WITH RESPEC TO GOLD AND PLATINUM//PLATINUM CLOSED UP $8.70 TO $1050.70 WHILE PALLADIUM CLOSED DONW $17.45//COVID UPDATES: DR PAUL ALEXANDER//VACCINE IMPACT//SLAY NEWS//WALL STREET JOURNAL BECOMES THE FIRST POWERFUL MASS MEDIA JOURNAL TO DEBUNK THE VACCINES//PEPE ESCOBAR A MUST READ: WERE ARE HEADING FOR A STABLE COIN BACKED BY GOLD IN THE EAST VS PAPER JUNK IN THE WEST//RUSSIA VS UKRAINE/USA//RUSSIA’S MEDVEDEV WARNS OF WORLD WAR III IF THE CLASH CONTINUES//NIKE, TO MOVE OUT OF FLAGHSHIP STORE//SPOTIFY REDUCES ITS HEADCOUNT AS TECH CONTINUES TO SHED WORKERS/MORE DOCUMENTS FOUND AT BIDEN’S HOUSE//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT///

Date:

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jan 23 · by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

GOLD PRICE CLOSED: UP $0.25 at $1927.05

SILVER PRICE CLOSED: DOWN $0.40  to $23.44

Access prices: closes : 4: 15 PM

Gold ACCESS CLOSE 1931,30

Silver ACCESS CLOSE: 23.40

Bitcoin morning price:, 22688 UP 1708 DOLLARS

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $22845 UP 1865  dollars

Platinum price closing  $1050.7 UP $8.70

Palladium price; closing 1711.20- DOWN $17.45

END

Due to the huge rise in the dollar, we must look at gold and silver in currencies other than the dollar to understand where we are heading

I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros/4: 15 PM ACCESS

CANADIAN GOLD: $2,581.82 UP $10.49 CDN dollars per oz

BRITISH GOLD: 1560.31 UP 6.37 pounds per oz

EURO GOLD: 1776.57 UP 2.91 euros per oz

EXCHANGE: COMEX

 EXCHANGE: COMEX

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JANUARY 2023 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,926.400000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 01/20/2023 DELIVERY DATE: 01/24/2023
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED


624 H BOFA SECURITIES 1022
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 14
661 C JP MORGAN 276
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 5
737 C ADVANTAGE 1 6
880 H CITIGROUP 1331
905 C ADM 19


TOTAL: 1,337 1,337
MONTH TO DATE: 5,981

JPMorgan stopped 276/1337

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GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR JAN/2023. CONTRACT:   1337 NOTICES FOR 133,700  OZ  or  4.1586 TONNES

total notices so far: 5981 contracts for 598,100 oz (18.603 tonnes)

 

SILVER NOTICES: 6 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 30,000 OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month  980 for 4,900,000  oz



END

GLD

WITH GOLD UP $0.25

INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 4.63 TONNES INTO THE GLD //

INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.06 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 40 CENTS

AT THE SLV// :/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.4 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//// WHAT A MASSIVE FRAUD!!!

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY: 498.7 MILLION OZ (THIS IS ALSO A CRIME SCENE@!!!!

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE


SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 227 CONTRACTS TO 132,414 AND FURTHER FROM  THE  RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE SMALL LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR   $0.09 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON FRIDAY.  FOR THE PAST MONTH, OUR BANKERS HAVE RETURNED TO BEING NET SHORT AND THUS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.09. BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPEC LONGS, AS WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 301 CONTRACTS. AS WELL, WE HAD ZERO  EXCHANGE FOR RISK TRANSFER ( 0 CONTRACTS) AS THE TOTAL ISSUED IN THIS CATEGORY SO FAR THIS MONTH TOTAL 3.75 MILLION OZ.  WE HAVE FINISHED WITH OUR SPECS BEING SHORT AS THEY COVERED WITH THE RISE IN PRICE .  WE HAVE NOW RETURNED TO OUR USUAL AND CUSTOMARY SCENARIO: BANKERS SHORT AND SPECS LONG.

WE  MUST HAVE HAD: 
A GOOD  ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS( 500 CONTRACTS) iiii) AN  INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT  4,055. MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE. JUMP   OF NIL OZ//NEW STANDING 4.955 MILLION OZ + 3.75 MILLION OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL STANDING 8.705 MILLION OZ////  V)  SMALL SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/ GOOD EFP ISSUANCE/

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL  –28

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS JAN. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF JAN: 

TOTAL CONTRACTS for 14 days, total 7755 contracts:   OR 38.775  MILLION OZ PER DAY. (553 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 38.775 MILLION OZ

.

LAST 17 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ 

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE 

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ 

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ 

SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL

OCT.  29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL

NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL

DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL

JAN 2023///   38.775 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 227 DESPITE OUR   $0.09 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// FRIDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A GOOD  SIZED EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 500 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR MAR AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JAN OF  4.055 MILLION  OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S NIL OZ. JUMP  /  //NEW STANDING STAYS CONSTANT  AT 4.955 MILLION OZ + EFR 3.75 MILLION = 8.705 MILLION OZ.  .. WE HAVE A  FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 301 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 1.505 MILLION  OZ.. THE SILVER SHORTS HAVE BEEN HURT BADLY WITH SILVER’S HUGE RISE LATELY.

 WE HAD  6  NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR  30,000   OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE  BY A GOOD SIZED 5417  CONTRACTS  TO 498,703 AND CLOSER TO  THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED -1203  CONTRACTS.

.

 WE HAD A GOOD SIZED INCREASE  IN COMEX OI (4214 CONTRACTS)  WITH OUR  $4.75 GAIN IN PRICE. WE ALSO HAD A SMALL INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR JAN. AT 2.1710 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 1337 CONTRACTS OR 133,700 OZ  //(QUEUE JUMPING = EXERCISING LONDON BASED EFP’S ) (EFP is the transfer of  contracts immediately to London for potential gold deliveries originating from London). NEW STANDING 18.955 TONNES

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR  $4.75 GAIN IN PRICE  WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 7345 OI CONTRACTS (22.84 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 3131 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 497,500

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 7345 CONTRACTS  WITH 4214 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 3131 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 7345 CONTRACTS OR 22.84 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (3131 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE  GOOD SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (4214) TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 7345 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR NORMAL FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING SHORT AND SPECULATORS GOING LONG  ,2.) SMALL INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR JAN. AT 2.1710 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 133,700 OZ /NEW STANDING 18.955 TONNES///3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION //4)    GOOD SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY

JAN

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JAN :

58,020  CONTRACTS OR 5,802,000 OZ OR 180.46 TONNES 14 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 4144 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 14 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES:180.46   TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  180.46/3550 x 100% TONNES  5.07% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 202

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN).. 

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE// 

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH:  409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247,44 TONNES FINAL// 

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES  FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL

OCT:  177.57  TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

NOV.  223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)

DEC:  185.59 tonnes // FINAL

JAN 2023:    180.46 TONNES INITIAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW  ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF FEB. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF BOTH GOLD (

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR BOTH GOLD:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (NOV), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER FELL BY A SMALL  SIZED 227 CONTRACTS OI TO  132,414 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  5 YEARS AGO.  

EFP ISSUANCE 500 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

MAR  500 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 500 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI LOSS  OF 227 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE  500 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A FAIR GAIN OF 273 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. 

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 1.365 MILLION OZ//

OCCURRED DESPITE OUR 9 CENT GAIN IN PRICE ….. OUR SPEC SHORTS HAVE NOWHERE TO HIDE!

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

end

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

end

5. Other gold/silver commentaries

6. Commodity commentaries//CORN

7/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)MONDAY MORNING//SUNDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED    //Hang Seng CLOSED      /The Nikkei closed UP 352.51 PTS OR 1.33%            //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.10%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP TO 6.7845//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP TO 6.7786//    /Oil UP TO 82.10 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 88.21   / Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY GREEN         ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 4214 CONTRACTS UP TO 497,500 WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $4.75

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON-ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JAN…  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR  SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 3131 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;: ,  . 0 FEB: 3131 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  3131   CONTRACTS 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A STRONG SIZED  TOTAL OF 7345 CONTRACTS IN THAT 3131 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A GOOD SIZED  COMEX OI GAIN OF 4214 CONTRACTS..AND  THIS VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR SMALL ADVANCE  IN PRICE OF $4.75. WE ARE NOW WITNESSING THE BANKERS GOING NET SHORT AND THE SPECS GOING NET LONG .

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING Jan  (18.955)

TONNES),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL  YEAR  2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT.  38.1158 TONNES

OCT:  77.390 TONNES/ FINAL

NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL 

Dec. 64.541 tonnes(TOTAL  THIS YEAR 656.076 TONNES

JAN/2023: 18.955 tonnes

THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE $4.75)  //// AND WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY  SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 8548 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES  //    WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI  OF 22.84PAPER TONNES OF TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JAN. (2.1710 TONNES) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 133700 oz  OR 4.1586 TONNES… ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR SMALL RISE IN PRICE  TO THE TUNE OF $4.75.  

WE HAD – 1203 CONTRACTS  COMEX TRADES REMOVED FROM OPEN INTEREST AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 7345 CONTRACTS OR 734500 OZ OR 22.84 TONNES

Estimated gold comex today 238,546//fair//

final gold volumes/yesterday  222,523///fair

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR  JAN 2023 COMEX GOLD //JAN 23//

GoldOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz
 nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz 157,604.199 oz

JPMorgan
4902 kilobars
Manfra:
64,302.00 oz
2,000 kilobars

total:  6902 kilobars




 




.

 








 









 
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oznil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
32.151  oz
Brinks
1 kilobar
No of oz served (contracts) today1337 notice(s)
133,700 OZ
4.1586 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)  113 contracts 
  11300 oz
0.3514 TONNES

 
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month 5981  notices
598,100
18.603 TONNES*
*new record for a January
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this monthxxx oz

i)Dealer deposits: 0

total dealer deposit:  nil oz

No dealer withdrawals

Customer deposits: 0

total deposits: nil oz

 customer withdrawals: 2

i) Out of Manfra:  64,302.000 oz (2000 kilobars)

ii) Our of JPMorgan:  157,604.199 oz (4902 kilobars)

Total withdrawals: 221m896.199 oz (6,902 kilobars)

total in tonnes: 6.902  tonnes

Adjustments:0

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JANUARY.

For the front month of JANUARY we have an oi of 1450 contracts having gained 1068  contracts

We had 269 notices served on Friday, so we gained a whopping 1337  contracts or an additional 133,700 oz(4.1586 tonnes) will stand for delivery in this

very non active delivery month of January.  (queue jump). This is the 2nd highest ever recorded queue jump at 4.1586 tonnes 

February lost  12,714  contacts  to 196,581  (looks like Feb. is going to be a huge delivery month//not contracting fast enough)_

March gained 120 contracts to stand at 1124.

April gained 15,500 contracts up to 243,754.

We had 1337  notice(s) filed today for 133,757 oz 

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and  0  notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to  1357  contract(s) of which 0   notices were stopped (received) by  j.P. Morgan dealer and 286  notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JAN. /2023. contract month, 

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (5981 x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (JANUARY 1450 CONTRACTS)  minus the number of notices served upon today  1337 x 100 oz per contract equals 609,400 OZ  OR 18.955 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this    non active month of January. 

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JAN contract month:

No of notices filed so far (5981 x 100 oz+   (1450 OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (1337} x 100 oz} which equals 609,400 oz standing OR 18.955 TONNES in this NON  active delivery month of JAN..

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 18.955 TONNES  (A HUGE STANDING FOR METAL AND A NEW RECORD FOR ANY JANUARY MONTH )//COMEX RUNNING OUT OF PHYSICAL TO SERVE UPON OUR LONGS.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

we had one adjustment of 110,631.591 oz Brinks

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 o

total pledged gold:  1,920,041.721 OZ   59.72 tonnes

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED:  22,487,606.148 OZ  

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD:  11,039,578.731 OZ     (343,37 tonnes)..dropping fast

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 11,448,027.417 OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 9,119,537 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 283.65 tonnes//rapidly declining 

END

SILVER/COMEX

JAN 23/2023//INITIAL JAN. SILVER CONTRACT

SilverOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers InventoryNIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory2,218,889.067 oz
Brinks
Delaware
CNT
HSBC
































 










 
Deposits to the Dealer Inventorynil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory1,205,547.740 oz
CNT
Loomis















 











 
No of oz served today (contracts)CONTRACT(S)  
 (30,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)5 contracts 
(25,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)986 contracts
 (4,930,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month


i)  0 
dealer deposit

total dealer deposits:  nil   oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals:  oz

We have 2 deposits into the customer account

i) Into CNT  599,798.14 oz

ii) Into Loomis:  605,749.600 oz

Total deposits:  1,205,547.740 oz 

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 151.398 million oz/292.740 million =52.05% of comex .//dropping fast

  Comex withdrawals: 4

i) Out of Brinks: 575,042.000 oz

ii) Out of CNT:  1,034,901.334 oz

iii) Out of Delaware: 3048.713 oz

iv) Out of HSBC 6060,897.020 oz

Total withdrawals; 2213,889.067 oz

adjustments: 0

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 33.195 MILLION OZ (declining rapidly).TOTAL REG + ELIG. 292,740 MILLION OZ 

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JAN

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF JAN/2023 OI: 11  CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 13  CONTRACT(S.). WE HAD 13 NOTICES

FILED ON FRIDAY SO  WE NEITHER  GAINED  NOR LOST ANY CONTRACT(S) 

FEB> GAINED 13 CONTRACTS TO 191 CONTRACTS

March LOST 513 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 109,560 contracts

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY:13 for  65,000 oz

Comex volumes// est. volume today  89,040//strong  

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 58,992 contracts ( fair)

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JANUARY. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 986 x  5,000 oz = 4,930,000 oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JAN(11) and the number of notices served upon today 6 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the JAN./2023 contract month: 986 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of JAN (11 – number of notices served upon today (6) x 500 oz of silver standing for the JAN. contract month equates 4.955 million oz  + 3.75 MILLION OZ ( EXCHANGE FOR RISK) = 8.705MILLION OZ//(TOTAL OZ OF SILVER STANDING).

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

Comex volumes:59,231// est. volume today//   good

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 76,646 contracts ( very good)

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS

JAN 23/WITH GOLD UP $0.25 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.63 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.06 TONNES

JAN 20/WITH GOLD UP $4.75 TODAY;BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.45 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.43 TONNES

JAN 19/WITH GOLD UP $16.95 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 910.98TONNES

JAN 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.95 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.9 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 909.24 TONNES

JAN 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.45 TODAY; NO  CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.14 TONNES

JAN 13/WITH GOLD UP $22.90 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.14 TONNES

JAN 12/WITH GOLD UP $20.55 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.43 TONNES

JAN 11/WITH GOLD UP $1.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.17 TONNES

JAN 10/WITH GOLD UP $1.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.33 TONNES

JAN 9/WITH GOLD UP $ 8.60 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES FROM THE GLD//.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.33 TONNES

JAN 6/WITH GOLD UP $28.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.77 TONNES

JAN 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.05 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES FORM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.77 TONNES

JANUARY 4/WITH GOLD UP $32.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.64 TONNES

JAN 3/WITH GOLD UP $20.00 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:STRANGE: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES FORM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.64 TONNES

DEC 30/WITH GOLD UP $.80 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.51 TONNES

DEC 29//WITH GOLD UP $8.35 TODAY:; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.51 TONNES

DEC 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.80 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 5.50 TONNES INTO THE GLD..//INVENTORY REST S AT 918.51 TONNES

DEC 27/WITH GOLD UP $18.15 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.01 TONNES

DEC 23/WITH GOLD UP $19,15 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.88 TONNES/

DEC 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $29.35 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.88 TONNES

DEC 21/WITH GOLD FLAT TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.88 TONNES

DEC 20/WITH GOLD UP $27.05: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.73 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.14 TONNES

DEC 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.10: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD> A BIG WITHDRAWAL OF 3.47 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 910.41 TONNES

DEC 16/WITH GOLD UP $12.45: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.32 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.88 TONNES

DEC 15//WITH GOLD DOWN $31.00: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 911.56 TONNES

DEC 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.20: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.32 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.72 TONNES

DEC 13/WITH GOLD UP $32.75: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.32 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 910.41

DEC 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.60: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.09 TONNES

DEC 9/WITH GOLD UP $8.90//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.09 TONNES

Dec 8/WITH GOLD UP $4.05, OVER THE PAST 3 WEEKS WE LOST 2.04 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.09 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 917.06  TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

JAN 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 40 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.4 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.7 MILLION OZ//

JAN 20.WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 750,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 497.300 MILLION OZ

JAN 19/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.05 MILLION OZ

JAN 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 41 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 8.15 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.05 MILLION OZ///

JAN 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 35 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 506.200 MILLION OZ//

JAN 13/WITH SILVER UP 46 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.5 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 506.200 MILLION OZ//

JAN 12/WITH SILVER UP 44 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 508.700 MILLION OZ/

JAN 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 508.700MILLION OZ

JAN 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.65 MILLION OZ

JAN 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.65 MILLION OZ//

JAN 6/WITH SILVER UP 54 CENTS TODAY;BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 4.20 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.65 MILLION OZ//

JAN 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 50 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.10 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 505.45 MILLION OZ//

JAN 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 26 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.3 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 506.55 MILLION OZ/

JAN 3/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: STRANGE: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.2 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 507.85 MILLION OZ/

DEC 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.050 MILLION OZ

DEC 29/ WITH SILVER UP $0.63 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.050 MILLION OZ

DEC 28//WITH SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.715 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///..INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.050 MILLION OZ

DEC 27/WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/A WITHDRAWAL OF 550,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 507.350 MILLION OZ//

DEC 23/WITH SILVER UP 29 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT507.900 MILLION O//

DEC 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 53 CENTS TODAY;NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 507.90 MILLION OZ//

DEC 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.0 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 507.90 MILLION OZ//

DEC 20/WITH SILVER UP 105 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:: A DEPOSIT OF 700,000 OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.90 MILLION OZ//

DEC 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.05 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.20 MILLION OZ//

DEC 16/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.85 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 508.15 MILLION OZ//

DEC 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 78 CENTS: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF EXACTLY 2.00 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 510.000 MILLION OZ

DEC 14/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.7 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 512.000 MILLION OZ//

DEC 13/WITH SILVER UP 59 CENTS: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 600,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 513.900 MILLION OZ//

DEC 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 33 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.500 MILLION OZ//

DEC 9/WITH SILVER RISING 77 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.2 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.500 MILLION OZ.

DEC 8/WITH SILVER RISING 34 CENTS TODAY: OVER THE PAST 3 WEEKS, WE HAVE GAINED A STRONG: 44.777 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 516.700 MILION OZ.

CLOSING INVENTORY 498.7 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1:Peter Schiff

A must read:

Peter Schiff: The Recession Everybody Denies Exists Is Going To Get Worse

MONDAY, JAN 16, 2023 – 01:20 PM

Via SchiffGold.com,

Peter Schiff recently appeared on Dan Bongino’s Unfiltered on Fox News to talk about the economy, inflation, the stock market, the Federal Reserve and investing in 2023. Peter said the recession that everybody denies exists is going to get worse, and so is inflation.

Some people in the mainstream seem to think a big stock market rally is in the cards. Peter said the optimism is unfounded.

I don’t think it’s going to be a good year for the stock market. I think there are going to be some stocks that do well. Unfortunately, most Americans don’t own those stocks.”

Peter said the ones that most investors do own are going to go down.

The very popular stocks that a lot of people have crowded into during the bubble – these stocks, even though they’ve come down a lot in 2022, they still have a long way to fall. And I think there’s a lot of risk in 2023, not just in the market, but in the economy.

Bongino referenced an op-ed in the New York Post by Ken Fisher arguing that the bad news, especially in the job market, is already written into the script and priced into the market. That means we may well have a “summer of love” in the stock market with a healthy rebound. Peter said people are underestimating just how bad the news is going to get.

First of all, a lot of people think inflation is going to come down. It’s not. I think the decline is what’s transitory. I think we’re going to be making new year-over-year highs in inflation before the end of the year.”

Peter has been arguing that a declining dollar and an ultimate Fed pivot away from monetary tightening will mean more inflation down the road, even if we get some relief in the CPI over the next few months. He drove this point home in a recent podcast.

That is the really important point that seems to be lost on everybody. What investors are trying to figure out is ‘has inflation peaked?’ Have we seen peak inflation? Now, I think the answer to that question is no. I don’t think inflation has peaked. Now, it may have peaked for a short period of time. It may take until the second half of 2023 before we get a year-over-year rate of inflation that was higher than the high water mark for 2022. Who knows? Maybe it will take into 2024. But the one thing that I’m certain of is that we’re not going anywhere near 2%. And that is what investors still don’t understand — that the days of low inflation are over, and we’re living in an era of high inflation. That is a complete game-changer for the Fed and the Fed has yet to come to terms with this new reality, nor has the market.”

And during his discussion with Bongino, Peter said the notion the economy is about to rebound is nothing but a fantasy.

The recession that everybody denies exists is actually going to get worse. So, we’re going to have a weaker economy and stronger inflation. The markets are not expecting that, and neither is the Fed.”

2 Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz//Rickards:

John Rubino

a good read…

Jophn Rubino

Gold Or Silver?

MONDAY, JAN 23, 2023 – 07:20 AM

Authored by John Rubino via Substack,

At first glance, gold and silver seem pretty fungible. They’re both hypnotically pretty. Their prices tend to rise and fall according to the same financial/political forces. They’re both seen as real money by a tiny (very wise) fraction of the population and as atavistic relics by the vast, ignorant majority. And – most important – they will both preserve their owners’ purchasing power when today’s fiat currencies evaporate like the fever dreams they always were.

So you definitely want some (and maybe a lot) of each. But gold and silver are not identical. They have different strengths and weaknesses in various “monetary reset” scenarios. And their prices don’t move in lockstep. Sometimes one is cheap relative to the other.

So how much of each should we own now, and how quickly should we plan to load up the truck? The answer is different for each person, but a few things are generally true.

The gold/silver ratio

The relative prices of gold and silver tend to fluctuate within a broad but discernable range. This gold/silver ratio is expressed as the number of ounces of silver it takes to buy an ounce of gold and tends to rise and fall along with the emotional state of precious metals investors. When those investors don’t foresee imminent inflation or other monetary disruptions, they gravitate towards gold’s safety and stability, and shy away from silver’s volatility. Gold’s price rises relative to silver’s, producing a high gold/silver ratio.

When investors expect rising inflation or other kinds of currency instability, they buy precious metals generally, but gravitate towards silver’s greater upside potential. Gold and silver both rise but the gold/silver ratio falls as buyers push silver’s price up more quickly than gold’s.

These fluctuations typically happen within a range of 40 to 80 (i.e., 40 to 80 silver ounces per ounce of gold), with a high number implying that silver is cheap relative to gold and a low number meaning that gold is cheap relative to silver. Breakouts beyond this range in either direction are useful signals.

JAN 23//GOLD CLOSED UP $.25 TO 27.05//SILVER IS DOWN 40 CENTS TO .44 AS THE BANKERS INITIATED ANOTHER RAID WHICH FAILS WITH RESPEC TO GOLD AND PLATINUM//PLATINUM CLOSED UP .70 TO 50.70 WHILE PALLADIUM CLOSED DONW .45//COVID UPDATES:  DR PAUL ALEXANDER//VACCINE IMPACT//SLAY NEWS//WALL STREET JOURNAL BECOMES THE FIRST POWERFUL MASS MEDIA JOURNAL TO DEBUNK THE VACCINES//PEPE ESCOBAR A MUST READ:  WERE ARE HEADING FOR A STABLE COIN BACKED BY GOLD IN THE EAST VS PAPER JUNK IN THE WEST//RUSSIA VS UKRAINE/USA//RUSSIA’S MEDVEDEV WARNS OF WORLD WAR III IF THE CLASH CONTINUES//NIKE, TO MOVE OUT OF FLAGHSHIP STORE//SPOTIFY REDUCES ITS HEADCOUNT AS TECH CONTINUES TO SHED WORKERS/MORE DOCUMENTS FOUND AT BIDEN’S HOUSE//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT///

And extreme readings are very reliable indicators. Note the 15 seconds in 2020 when the ratio spiked to 120 (as silver’s price fell to $13/oz and it took 120 ounces to buy an ounce of gold). That was a great time to buy silver, as it outperformed gold dramatically in the next few months.

Currently the ratio is around 75, which implies that silver is modestly undervalued and stackers should favor it over gold in the near term.

Gold’s market is big, silver’s is small

Why is silver so much more volatile than gold? Because it’s a much smaller market. Most of the gold ever mined is still around in the form of bars and jewelry. Silver, in contrast, is used in industrial products and is frequently not recycled. The result is a world with far more above ground gold than silver, in dollar terms. So it only takes a small amount of new investment demand flowing in or out of silver to move its price dramatically.

Different roles in a crisis

In most monetary reset scenarios, gold and silver will both soar in value and will be useful for buying things. But different things. A few ounces of gold will buy a used car, while one or two silver coins will buy a week’s worth of veggies at the farmers’ market. Both transaction categories are important, which is why you want some of each metal.

Transportability

If you have to leave the country in a hurry, gold coins are easy to transport. 10 1-ounce Gold Eagles will fit into a shoe buried in a suitcase and will be valuable enough to bribe plenty of border guards. The same buying power of silver would weigh 37 times as much at today’s exchange rate and would fill up a big part of a suitcase.

To sum up, gold is harder to spend but easier to transport. Silver is easier to spend but harder to store and move.

Confiscation risk

It’s pointless to go to all the trouble of stacking precious metals if the government is just going to swoop in and take it all away. This happened with gold in the 1930s, when the US made private gold bullion ownership illegal. Will they do it again? Probably not, because in the 1930s gold was the world’s money, while today it’s classed as a commodity. But if a growing number of countries start backing their currencies with gold and threatening the dollar’s hegemony, things might change.

Silver is probably immune from confiscation because it’s an industrial metal that thousands of businesses buy, sell and hold in inventory. Banning or restricting ownership of it would prohibitively disruptive.

Silver 60-40?

So it comes down to your expectations. Will you bug out or hunker down in a SHTF scenario? If the former you may want to favor gold; if the latter, silver. If you’re not sure, and want to prepare for both possibilities, the gold/silver ratio implies a 60%-40% silver/gold mix (in terms of dollar value) at current prices.

How much gold and silver should you own?

Here’s where the culture clash begins. Traditional financial planners will say zero percent of your net worth should be in pointless rocks that haven’t been money for decades. More flexible traditional financial planners will humor you with 1 or 2 percent in a gold ETF like GLD (DO NOT do this, for reasons to be explained in a later article). Cautious crisis-investing gurus like Jim Rickards (to be profiled in a future article) recommend 10%, which is reasonable. A more aggressive but still reasonable mix would be 10% of your investible funds in physical precious metals and another 10% in gold/silver mining stocks (again, to be explained soon).

Time pressure?

As for how quickly we should get this done, there are lots of crosscurrents. The Fed is either going to keep tightening until something breaks, which might pull precious metals prices down along with everything else (so no hurry). Or the Fed will capitulate after the next batch of terrible economic reports, igniting a relief rally that sends gold and silver to the moon (so now or never).

Leaving the inherently unpredictable Fed out of the equation, we’re moving into the weakest season for precious metals (yes, they’re seasonal). Asians, especially Chinese and Indians, like to give gold and silver jewelry as wedding gifts, since they correctly view such things as portable wealth. Most Asian weddings are in the Spring, which leads jewelers in those countries to buy their inventory in the Fall and early Winter. The result is generally rising gold and silver prices September through January, and languishing prices in the later Spring and Summer. The following chart (courtesy of Jeff Clark’s Gold advisor) illustrates the pattern.

To sum up, it’s anybody’s guess what gold and silver will do in the coming six months. Faced with that kind of uncertainty, dollar cost averaging, i.e., buying the same dollar amount of metal each month, is probably the best approach. Let your own sense of urgency determine the monthly amount.

*  *  *

Subscribe to John Rubino’s “Survive and Thrive in the Coming Crisis” substack…

END

3. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries//

Brazil and Argentina plan for a common currency.  This is to replace the USA dollar.

They would be better off with a stable coin backed by gold

(London’s Financial Times/GATA)

Brazil and Argentina to plan for a common currency, less dollar use

Submitted by admin on Sun, 2023-01-22 11:25Section: Daily Dispatches

By Michael Stott and Lucinda Elliott
Financial Times, London
Sunday, January 22, 2023

Brazil and Argentina will this week announce that they are starting preparatory work on a common currency, in a move that could eventually create the world’s second-largest currency bloc.

South America’s two biggest economies will discuss the plan at a summit in Buenos Aires this week and will invite other Latin American nations to join

The initial focus will be on how a new currency, which Brazil suggests calling the “sur” (south), could boost regional trade and reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar, officials told the Financial Times. 

It would at first run in parallel with the Brazilian real and Argentine peso.

“There will be … a decision to start studying the parameters needed for a common currency, which includes everything from fiscal issues to the size of the economy and the role of central banks,” Argentina’s economy minister Sergio Massa told the Financial Times.

“It would be a study of mechanisms for trade integration,” he added. 

“I don’t want to create any false expectations. … It’s the first step on a long road Latin America must travel.” …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.ft.com/content/5347d263-7f24-4966-8da4-79485d1287b4

END

end

this is good!

Supreme Court rejects appeals of ex-Deutsche Bank traders in metals spoofing

Submitted by admin on Mon, 2023-01-23 11:05 Section: Daily Dispatches

By Greg Stohr
Bloomberg News
Monday, January 23, 2023

The U.S. Supreme Court has refused to review the convictions of two former Deutsche Bank precious-metals traders for manipulating gold and silver prices with “spoof” trade orders.

The nation’s highest court without comment turned away appeals from James Vorley and Cedric Chanu, who were each sentenced to one year and one day in prison for wire fraud.

Prosecutors said that from 2009 and 2013 Vorley and Chanu placed large orders to buy or sell futures contracts in order to affect their price, with no intention of ever executing the trades. Once the price shifted, the men canceled their original orders and executed different ones to take advantage of the price movement. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-23/ex-deutsche-bank-traders-rejected-by-high-court-in-spoof-case

end

4. Other gold/silver commentaries

Brought this to your attention on Friday but it is worth repeating

The east is leading a multipolar transition away from the USA dollar.  The leading candidate to replace the dollar

will be a “stable coin” backed by gold.  Since most commodities originate in the east, price of that commodity will be

in this stable coin and that includes silver. This will bring massive increases in price (and inflation) to the globe

Pepe Escobar:

Global South: Gold-Backed Currencies to Replace the US Dollar

PEPE ESCOBAR • JANUARY 19, 2023

Let’s start with three interconnected multipolar-driven facts.

First: One of the key take aways from the World Economic Forum annual shindig in Davos, Switzerland is when Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed al-Jadaan, on a panel on “Saudi Arabia’s Transformation,” made it clear that Riyadh “will consider trading in currencies other than the US dollar.”

So is the petroyuan finally at hand? Possibly, but Al-Jadaan wisely opted for careful hedging: “We enjoy a very strategic relationship with China and we enjoy that same strategic relationship with other nations including the US and we want to develop that with Europe and other countries.”

Second: The Central Banks of Iran and Russia are studying the adoption of a “stable coin” for foreign trade settlements, replacing the US dollar, the ruble and the rial. The crypto crowd is already up in arms, mulling the pros and cons of a gold-backed central bank digital currency (CBDC) for trade that will be in fact impervious to the weaponized US dollar.

A gold-backed digital currency

The really attractive issue here is that this gold-backed digital currency would be particularly effective in the Special Economic Zone (SEZ) of Astrakhan, in the Caspian Sea.

Astrakhan is the key Russian port participating in the International North South Transportation Corridor (INTSC), with Russia processing cargo travelling across Iran in merchant ships all the way to West Asia, Africa, the Indian Ocean and South Asia.

The success of the INSTC – progressively tied to a gold-backed CBDC – will largely hinge on whether scores of Asian, West Asian and African nations refuse to apply US-dictated sanctions on both Russia and Iran.

As it stands, exports are mostly energy and agricultural products; Iranian companies are the third largest importer of Russian grain. Next will be turbines, polymers, medical equipment, and car parts. Only the Russia-Iran section of the INSTC represents a $25 billion business.

And then there’s the crucial energy angle of INSTC – whose main players are the Russia-Iran-India triad.

India’s purchases of Russian crude have increased year-by-year by a whopping factor of 33. India is the world’s third largest importer of oil; in December, it received 1.2 million barrels from Russia, which for several months now is positioned ahead of Iraq and Saudi Arabia as Delhi’s top supplier.

‘A fairer payment system’

Third: South Africa holds this year’s rotating BRICS presidency. And this year will mark the start of BRICS+ expansion, with candidates ranging from Algeria, Iran and Argentina to Turkey, Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

South African Foreign Minister Naledi Pandor has just confirmed that the BRICS do want to find a way to bypass the US dollar and thus create “a fairer payment system not skewed toward wealthier countries.”

For years now, Yaroslav Lissovolik, head of the analytical department of Russian Sberbank’s corporate and investment business has been a proponent of closer BRICS integration and the adoption of a BRICS reserve currency.

Lissovolik reminds us that the first proposal “to create a new reserve currency based on a basket of currencies of BRICS countries was formulated by the Valdai Club back in 2018.”

Are you ready for the R5?

The original idea revolved around a currency basket similar to the Special Drawing Rights (SDR) model, composed of the national currencies of BRICS members – and then, further on down the road, other currencies of the expanded BRICS+ circle.

Lissovolik explains that choosing BRICS national currencies made sense because “these were among the most liquid currencies across emerging markets. The name for the new reserve currency — R5 or R5+ — was based on the first letters of the BRICS currencies all of which begin with the letter R (real, ruble, rupee, renminbi, rand).”

So BRICS already have a platform for their in-depth deliberations in 2023. As Lissovolik notes, “in the longer run, the R5 BRICS currency could start to perform the role of settlements/payments as well as the store of value/reserves for the central banks of emerging market economies.”

It is virtually certain that the Chinese yuan will be prominent right from the start, taking advantage of its “already advanced reserve status.”

Potential candidates that could become part of the R5+ currency basket include the Singapore dollar and the UAE’s dirham.

Quite diplomatically, Lissovolik maintains that, “the R5 project can thus become one of the most important contributions of emerging markets to building a more secure international financial system.”

The R5, or R5+ project does intersect with what is being designed at the Eurasia Economic Union (EAEU), led by the Macro-Economics Minister of the Eurasia Economic Commission, Sergey Glazyev.

A new gold standard

In Golden Ruble 3.0 , his most recent paper, Glazyev makes a direct reference to two by now notorious reports by Credit Suisse strategist Zoltan Pozsar, formerly of the IMF, US Department of Treasury, and New York Federal Reserve: War and Commodity Encumbrance (December 27) and War and Currency Statecraft (December 29).

Pozsar is a staunch supporter of a Bretton Woods III – an idea that has been getting enormous traction among the Fed-skeptical crowd.

What’s quite intriguing is that the American Pozsar now directly quotes Russia’s Glazyev, and vice-versa, implying a fascinating convergence of their ideas.

Let’s start with Glazyev’s emphasis on the importance of gold. He notes the current accumulation of multibillion-dollar cash balances on the accounts of Russian exporters in “soft” currencies in the banks of Russia’s main foreign economic partners: EAEU nations, China, India, Iran, Turkey, and the UAE.

He then proceeds to explain how gold can be a unique tool to fight western sanctions if prices of oil and gas, food and fertilizers, metals and solid minerals are recalculated:

“Fixing the price of oil in gold at the level of 2 barrels per 1g will give a second increase in the price of gold in dollars, calculated Credit Suisse strategist Zoltan Pozsar. This would be an adequate response to the ‘price ceilings’ introduced by the west – a kind of ‘floor,’ a solid foundation. And India and China can take the place of global commodity traders instead of Glencore or Trafigura.”

So here we see Glazyev and Pozsar converging. Quite a few major players in New York will be amazed.

Glazyev then lays down the road toward Gold Ruble 3.0. The first gold standard was lobbied by the Rothschilds in the 19th century, which “gave them the opportunity to subordinate continental Europe to the British financial system through gold loans.” Golden Ruble 1.0, writes Glazyev, “provided the process of capitalist accumulation.”

Golden Ruble 2.0, after Bretton Woods, “ensured a rapid economic recovery after the war.” But then the “reformer Khrushchev canceled the peg of the ruble to gold, carrying out monetary reform in 1961 with the actual devaluation of the ruble by 2.5 times, forming conditions for the subsequent transformation of the country [Russia] into a “raw material appendage of the Western financial system.”

What Glazyev proposes now is for Russia to boost gold mining to as much as 3 percent of GDP: the basis for fast growth of the entire commodity sector (30 percent of Russian GDP). With the country becoming a world leader in gold production, it gets “a strong ruble, a strong budget and a strong economy.”

All Global South eggs in one basket

Meanwhile, at the heart of the EAEU discussions, Glazyev seems to be designing a new currency not only based on gold, but partly based on the oil and natural gas reserves of participating countries.

Pozsar seems to consider this potentially inflationary: it could be if it results in some excesses, considering the new currency would be linked to such a large base.

Off the record, New York banking sources admit the US dollar would be “wiped out, since it is a valueless fiat currency, should Sergey Glazyev link the new currency to gold. The reason is that the Bretton Woods system no longer has a gold base and has no intrinsic value, like the FTX crypto currency. Sergey’s plan also linking the currency to oil and natural gas seems to be a winner.”

So in fact Glazyev may be creating the whole currency structure for what Pozsar called, half in jest, the “G7 of the East”: the current 5 BRICS plus the next 2 which will be the first new members of BRICS+.

Both Glazyev and Pozsar know better than anyone that when Bretton Woods was created the US possessed most of Central Bank gold and controlled half the world’s GDP. This was the basis for the US to take over the whole global financial system.

Now vast swathes of the non-western world are paying close attention to Glazyev and the drive towards a new non-US dollar currency, complete with a new gold standard which would in time totally replace the US dollar.

Pozsar completely understood how Glazyev is pursuing a formula featuring a basket of currencies (as Lissovolik suggested). As much as he understood the groundbreaking drive towards the petroyuan. He describes the industrial ramifications thus:

“Since as we have just said Russia, Iran, and Venezuela account for about 40 percent of the world’s proven oil reserves, and each of them are currently selling oil to China for renminbi at a steep discount, we find BASF’s decision to permanently downsize its operations at its main plant in Ludwigshafen and instead shift its chemical operations to China was motivated by the fact that China is securing energy at discounts, not markups like Europe.”

The race to replace the dollar

One key takeaway is that energy-intensive major industries are going to be moving to China. Beijing has become a big exporter of Russian liquified natural gas (LNG) to Europe, while India has become a big exporter of Russian oil and refined products such as diesel – also to Europe. Both China and India – BRICS members – buy below market price from fellow BRICS member Russia and resell to Europe with a hefty profit. Sanctions? What sanctions?

Meanwhile, the race to constitute the new currency basket for a new monetary unit is on. This long-distance dialogue between Glazyev and Pozsar will become even more fascinating, as Glazyev will be trying to find a solution to what Pozsar has stated: tapping of natural resources for the creation of the new currency could be inflationary if money supply is increased too quickly.

All that is happening as Ukraine – a huge chasm at a critical junction of the New Silk Road blocking off Europe from Russia/China – slowly but surely disappears into a black void. The Empire may have gobbled up Europe for now, but what really matters geoeconomically, is how the absolute majority of the Global South is deciding to commit to the Russia/China-led block.

Economic dominance of BRICS+ may be no more than 7 years away – whatever toxicities may be concocted by that large, dysfunctional nuclear rogue state on the other side of the Atlantic. But first, let’s get that new currency going.

(Republished from The Cradle by permission of author or representative)

← ‘Fragmented World’ Sleepwalks Into Worl…


end

UAE de dollarization accelerates and crypto (stablecoin backed by gold) will play a major roll!

(zerohedge)

UAE De-Dollarization Accelerates: “Crypto Will Play A Major Role In Trade Going Forward”

SATURDAY, JAN 21, 2023 – 01:00 PM

We are starting to see a pattern in the last week or so in geopolitical events that is anything but good for the unipolar hegemon in the west.

The first, as we detailed here, was when Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed al-Jadaan, on a panel on “Saudi Arabia’s Transformation” in Davos, made it clear that Riyadh “will consider trading in currencies other than the US dollar.”

So is the petroyuan finally at hand? Possibly, but Al-Jadaan wisely opted for careful hedging:

“We enjoy a very strategic relationship with China and we enjoy that same strategic relationship with other nations including the US and we want to develop that with Europe and other countries.”

Second, as we reported hereThe Central Banks of Iran and Russia are studying the adoption of a “stable coin” for foreign trade settlements, replacing the US dollar, the ruble and the rial.

The crypto crowd is already up in arms, mulling the pros and cons of a gold-backed central bank digital currency (CBDC) for trade that will be in fact impervious to the weaponized US dollar.

And now, third, Thani Al-Zeyoudi, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) minister of state for foreign trade told Bloomberg TV that he is discussing ways to boost non-dollar trade (in oil and non-oil exports) with some of its largest trading partners.

The UAE and India are discussing ways to boost trade in rupees as the Gulf country looks to strengthen ties with its second-largest trade partner.

“We are still in early-stage discussions with India on this dirham-rupee trade,” Al-Zeyoudi said, adding that oil sales in the Indian currency are “not under consideration… This is only going to be focusing on non-oil trade.”

The UAE has been seeking to step up trade with crucial partners and last year signed multiple economic pacts with countries including India, IndonesiaTurkey, Israel and Ukraine.

In the coming months, the UAE expects to finalize similar agreements with Cambodia and Georgia, Al-Zeyoudi said.

Additionally, discussions on a trade agreement with China are also taking place, the UAE minister said.

“China is our first trade partner,” he said.

“For sure, more is going to be good for consumers, for workers, for people, for businesses.”

Finally, Al-Zeyoudi said that, “Crypto will play a major role for UAE trade going forward.”

The UAE – and especially Dubai – has been working to lure the world’s largest firms with its crypto-friendly policies.

“The most important thing is that we ensure global governance when it comes to cryptocurrencies and crypto companies,” Al-Zeyoudi said.

“We started attracting some of the companies to the country with the aim that we’ll build together the right governance and legal system, which are needed.”

All of which seems to confirm what Credit Suisse monetary icon, Zoltan Pozsar, said in his latest note, “War and Commodity Encumbrance” (must read as usual, and available to professional subs), which discusses two main things: i) commodity encumbrance (i.e., rehypothecation) and ii) the missing link of the Bretton Woods III world, the Petroyuan.

Of course, it is never that simple with any Pozsar report, and this one is no exception, so let’s start at the top of the most important narrative that will shape the next decade if not century.

As the Hungarian repo expert begins, a recurring theme in his dispatches this year has been that “in a moment when the world is going from unipolar to multipolar, the actions of heads of state are far more important than the actions of central banks.” That is because as heads of state lead, and their actions affect inflation, central banks merely follow by hiking rates to “clean up”. It has been Zoltan’s contention that central banks will be behind the curve in this game, “and if investors read only the speeches of central bankers but not statesmen, they will be even more behind the curve.”

More importantly however, this new multipolar world order is being built not by G7 heads of state but by what Pozsar calls the “G7 of the East” (the BRICS heads of state), which is a G5 really but because of “BRICSpansion” (he took the liberty to round up).

Commodity commentaries//GLOBAL FREIGHT

END

IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES ON COMMODITIES:EGGS

Soaring egg prices are causing interest in backyard farms

(zerohedge)

Egg Crisis Sparks Soaring Interest In Backyard Farms

SUNDAY, JAN 22, 2023 – 11:00 PM

Covid supply chain snarls turned millions of Americans into “preppers” overnight. The run on toilet paper, food, guns, ammunition, and other essential items for survival pushed millions to consider preparedness for a crisis.

Remember all those old-school preppers? The media used to refer to them as “extreme” and even called them “tin-foil hat conspiracy” folks, but during the shutdowns, those folks were right, and the mainstream media got it wrong. 

The next shortage underway is eggs. Readers have seen our notes on supermarkets nationwide running out of eggs. The egg shortage is so severe that last week the US Customs and Border Protection reported that egg smuggling from Mexico erupted. 

And why is that? Well, a dozen Grade A eggs in the US have topped $4.25 at supermarkets. In Mexico, a 30 count of eggs is about $3.40. 

US egg prices have topped the national average gasoline per gallon price at the pump. 

As a result of the egg crisis, internet search trends on Google show Americans are panic searching where to find egg-laying hens for their backyard. 

The search trend “where to buy chickens near me” erupted to a near multi-decade high. 

“Buy chickens near me” searches explode across the US. 

Besides the Covid spike, “how to raise chickens” has spiked to levels not seen in a decade. 

Over the last several years, food insecurity has pushed many Americans to create ‘little backyard farms’- something their parents or grandparents did more than half a century ago. Living off the land was standard decades ago, but as metropolises sprung up, people relied more on a corporation (or even the government) to provide food. 

Soaring distrust in government and corporations had transformed many into preppers following the pandemic shutdowns when some supplies were impossible to find. People don’t want to be left empty-handed when the next crisis arises. This has led to a new generation of preppers and the normalization of being prepared. 

END

.

1. YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS//MONDAY MORNING.7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: UP TO  6.7845

OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.7786

SHANGHAI CLOSED 

HANG SENG CLOSED 

2. Nikkei closed UP 353.51 PTS OR 1.33%  

3. Europe stocks   SO FAR:  MOSTLY GREEN EXCEPT ITALY

USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO  102.78 Euro RISES TO 1.0871 UP 19 BASIS PTS

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.378!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 130.32/JAPANESE YEN RISING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10  YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   UP-//  OFF- SHORE: UP

3f Japan is to buy INFINITE  TRILLION YEN’S worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt. 

3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.178%***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 4.006%*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 3.166…** DANGEROUS//

3i Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO 4.161//

3j Gold at $1927.10//silver at: 23.44  7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0  AND  14/100        roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 68.68//

3m oil into the 82 dollar handle for WTI and  88 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 130.32/10 YEAR YIELD AFTER BREAKING .54% FALLS TO .378% ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.9221– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 1.0027 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.504% UP 2 BASIS PTS…GETTING DANGEROUS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.679 UP 2 BASIS PTS//

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18,81…

GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: 3.3860 % UP 5 BASIS PTS

end

i.b  Overnight:  Newsquawk and Zero hedge:

 FIRST, ZEROHEDGE (PRE USA OPENING// MORNING

Futures Steady As Fed Blackout Begins, China On Holiday, Earnings Galore

Previously, we said operational moves were started several days ago.
Before this is done many ten’s of thousands of Ukrainians and others will be slaughtered or surrender, with the former more likely.
Zelensky is a captive of the Nazi Asov crowd and his master in Israel who controls the media. It matters not what Milley says, the moment Zelensky agrees to retreat he is a dead man walking. Such is the fool who has been promoted as the figurehead of Western beliefs.


Previously, we said operational moves were started several days ago.
Before this is done many ten’s of thousands of Ukrainians and others will be slaughtered or surrender, with the former more likely.
Zelensky is a captive of the Nazi Asov crowd and his master in Israel who controls the media. It matters not what Milley says, the moment Zelensky agrees to retreat he is a dead man walking. Such is the fool who has been promoted as the figurehead of Western beliefs. 

MONDAY, JAN 23, 2023 – 08:02 AM

US equity futures were little changed, trading in a narrow ten point range during a muted overnight session on Monday as investors braced for a moderation in Fed rate increases after the Fed mouthpiece suggested a 25bps hike is now the baseline (coming at a time when the Fed is now in a quiet period until the Feb 1 FOMC meeting), while bracing for a busy week of earnings. S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures each rose 0.1% at 7:45 a.m. ET after both underlying benchmarks rallied on Friday. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index has posted three weeks of gains, the longest winning streak since mid-August. 10Y TSY yield rose 2bps to 3.50%, while the dollar rebounded from nine-month lows against the euro and a group of other currencies, after a slew of Federal Reserve officials laid out the case for a downshift in the Fed’s rate-tightening campaign. China and most Asian markets were closed for the Lunar New Year holiday.

In premarket trading, Tesla rose more than 2% as sentiment toward the EV maker recovers after aggressive price cuts are seenas helping it gain market share. Salesforce climbed 4.1%  after hedge fund Elliott Investment Management took a substantial activist stake in the enterprise software giant. Western Digital shares gained 1.4% after a Bloomberg report that the company and Kioxia are progressing in their merger talks. Western Digital would spin off its flash business and merge it with Kioxia, creating a publicly traded company in the US, according to people familiar with the matter. Spotify shares advanced 2.6% in US premarket trading, after Bloomberg reported that the music streaming company is said to be planning job cuts as soon as this week, amid layoffs in the broader tech industry. Bank stocks are lower in premarket trading following their best day since November on Friday. In corporate news, Germany’s antitrust regulator opened an investigation into PayPal over potential obstruction of competitors. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

  • AMD and Qualcomm rise after they were upgraded at Barclays, while Applied Materials declines amid a downgrade. Barclays says it’s more positive on semiconductor companies with data center, PC and handset exposure, but remains negative on semiconductor capital equipment stocks. AMD gains 2.5%, Qualcomm advances 2.1%, Applied Materials declines 2%
  • Pliant Therapeutics surges 69% after the biotech announced data from its phase 2 trial for bexotegrast, its treatment for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), prompting analysts to raise their price targets on the stock.
  • Western Digital shares gain 1.4% after a Bloomberg report that the company and Kioxia are progressing in their merger talks. Western Digital would spin off its flash business and merge it with Kioxia, creating a publicly traded company in the US, according to people familiar with the matter.
  • Keep an eye on Warner Music as it was downgraded to equal-weight from overweight at Barclays, which said the recording company’s financial performance has been too volatile to justify a premium valuation. Peer Universal Music is maintained at overweight.
  • Keep an eye on Flywire as it was initiated with an equal weight rating at Morgan Stanley, with the broker expecting faster growth due to the payments company’s “significant competitive product advantages” and untapped potential with global colleges and universities.
  • Planet Labs stock could be in focus after it was initiated at equal-weight by Morgan Stanley, which expects the wireless telecom firm to boost annual revenue by 20%-25% over the next two-to-five years and achieve positive free-cash flow toward the end of that period.
  • Deutsche Bank expects another volatile year for US software stocks as investors look for a bottom amid weakening fundamentals. Downgrades Check Point, Matterport, Workday, CrowdStrike and SentinelOne, while raising Shopify and Confluent.
  • PTC Inc. is upgraded to overweight from sector weight at KeyBanc, with analysts saying the US software provider could be “one of the best” free cash flow growth stories over the next three years.

Investors are increasingly contrasting the US picture with a relatively rosier outlook for Europe, which many reckon will manage to dodge recession this year. Forecasts of a US recession in the second half of 2023, the ongoing wrangling in Congress over the debt ceiling and signals from companies weighed on equity index futures, which struggled to build on Friday’s momentum that lifted S&P 500 after four days of losses.

On Friday Fed Governor Christopher Waller, one of the more hawkish officials at the US central bank, joined other policymakers in backing another moderation in the size of rate increases when they next gather. Investors are also weighing the incoming stream of corporate earnings for signs of how corporate margins are holding up against inflation and economic slowdown pressures. By contrast, ECB policymakers Klaas Knot and Peter Kazimir spoke in favor of continuing with half-point interest-rate increases at the next two meetings, adding to the hawkish comments made last week by fellow ECB officials.

And while there were several notable bullish calls over the weekend, most notably at Goldman where traders clashed over the fate of the market, one place where there was no change in the dour mood was Morgan Stanley whose strategist Michael Wilson said that the improving sentiment toward US equities is at odds with a backdrop of weakening economic data and earnings: “The question is when will equity indices price the current weakness in the leading data and the eventual weakness in the hard data?,” said the strategist, who ranked No. 1 in last year’s Institutional Investor survey. “We think it’s this calendar quarter.”

Earnings were also a concern for JPMorgan strategist Mislav Matejka, who notes that the environment will be particularly challenging this year, with corporate pricing power starting to reverse, just as margins are near record-high in the US and in Europe.

European stocks also opened higher as they looked to continue their solid start to the year but gains have since evaporated with the Stoxx 600 now trading flat. Tech, miners and real estate are the strongest performing sectors while chemicals and travel underperform. The Stoxx 600 index was steady, having risen nearly 7% this year, almost double the S&P 500’s gain. Meanwhile, the euro strengthened to the highest since April 2022. The single currency is up almost 2% this year against the greenback, after falling nearly 6% last year. “The market has decided recession risks were overdone for Europe and you can see that in the outperformance of European stocks and the euro,” Rabobank strategist Jane Foley said. Here are some of the biggest European movers on Monday:

  • Intesa gains as much as 3.3% after Citi said the Italian lender remains adequately capitalized even after latest charges linked to EBA guidelines that will impact capital this year
  • Atos rises as much as 6.2%, after French weekly Le Journal du Dimanche reported that engineering firm Astek was interested in buying a stake in Atos’ data and cybersecurity unit Evidian
  • Boliden rises as much as 2.9% after Berenberg raised to buy from hold and lifted price target. The miner is well placed to benefit from the rally in commodity prices, Berenberg writes
  • GTT rises after the French group acknowledged the suspension of a decision by the Korea Fair Trade Commission relating to its activities with Korean shipyards in relation to LNG carriers
  • National Express shares jump after the public transport group announced its German rail subsidiary won a €1b contract to operate the RE1 and RE11 Rhein-Ruhr-Express lines until 2033
  • ISS shares rise as much as 3.3%, with Morgan Stanley saying the organic growth and free cash flow reported by the Danish facilities manager is ahead of prior expectations
  • Symrise drops as much as 8.6% after a larger- than-anticipated margin miss. Peers Givaudan and Croda also fell
  • DSM falls as much as 5.5% after the Dutch chemicals and ingredients group extended the acceptance period for shareholders to tender ordinary shares
  • Juventus shares fall as much as 13% in Milan after authorities penalized the soccer team, with a cut in its point standing because of how it accounted for player transfers
  • Informa shares fall on Monday after UBS downgrades to neutral from buy, saying the consensus has largely priced in a recovery in the events firm’s China business

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks rose with Japan leading gains as much of the region was closed for the Lunar New Year holiday, as prospects for slower Federal Reserve policy tightening lifted investor sentiment. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was up 0.4%, on track for its highest close since June 9, driven by gains in Tokyo-listed technology shares including Keyence and Tokyo Electron. Key share gauges also rose in India. Trading overall was light with markets shut in Greater China and a number of other countries. Asian equities have been outperforming global peers this year amid optimism over China’s reopening and its easing crackdown on large tech companies. While further moderation in Fed rate hikes should be another tailwind for the region, questions linger over the outlook for the global economy.

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, one of the more hawkish officials at the US central bank, Friday joined other policymakers in backing another moderation in the size of rate increases when they next gather. “If the inflation rate drops as expected, and the Fed finally decides to stop raising interest rates, it would then be positive for stock prices in the long term, but we are probably not there yet,” said Ayako Sera, a market strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank Ltd. in Tokyo. The MSCI Asia benchmark is up 7.7% so far in 2023, more than double the gain in the S&P 500 Index, and is trading above technical levels often seen as overbought. Japan’s Topix has underperformed with a rise of less than 3% amid expectations the nation’s central bank may move away from its ultra-easy monetary policy.

Japanese equities rose, following US peers higher as comments from Federal Reserve officials calmed concerns over aggressive monetary tightening.  The Topix Index rose 1% to 1,945.38 as of the market close in Tokyo, while the Nikkei 225 advanced 1.3% to 26,906.04. Keyence contributed the most to the Topix’s gain, increasing 2.8%. Out of 2,161 stocks in the index, 1,832 rose and 263 fell, while 66 were unchanged. “The rebound of US Nasdaq had a positive influence on Japanese equities, as it cooled concerns over tech-related stocks,” said Ayako Sera, a market strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank Ltd. “While the stock market rallied on potential easing of monetary tightening by the Fed officials, it might be still early to be optimistic about the economic situation,” Sera said.

Australian stocks ticked higher, extending their winning streak to four days. The S&P/ASX 200 index rose 0.1% to close at 7,457.30. Energy and technology stocks contributed the most to the benchmark’s advance. Karoon was the top performer after reporting higher reserves at its Bauna oil project in Brazil. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 0.2% to 11,948.72

In FX, the diverging rate bets pressured the dollar, which stayed just off nine-month lows against a basket of peers. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index dropped as much as 0.3% before paring, and the greenback weakened against all of its Group- of-10 peers apart from the yen. Scandinavian and Antipodean currencies were the best performers. Pressure on the greenback has increased after last week’s weak retail sales data and a slump in business equipment production reinforced the challenges for the world’s biggest economy.

  • The euro rose as much as 0.7% to 1.0927, the highest since April 21, before paring. Options gauges however point to downside risks for the euro.
  • The pound rose to a seven-month high of 1.2448. Gilts advanced, led by the front end of the curve
  • The yen was sold in the Asia session and Japanese bond futures extended gains as the BOJ’s offer of five-year loans drew strong demand, spurring traders to cover their short positions. Institutional investors have turned bullish on the yen for the first time since June 2021 as speculation mounts over the future of the BOJ’s ultra-easy monetary policy

In rates, Treasuries drift lower with the curve steeper and long-end yields cheaper by up to 2.5bp on the day. No strong catalyst for price action with S&P 500 futures little changed near top of Friday’s range. US 10-year yields trade just over 3.50%, cheaper by ~2bp vs Friday’s close with bunds and gilts slightly outperforming in the sector; front-end Treasuries steady, steepening 2s10s and 5s30s by ~1bp.US auctions resume Tuesday with $42b 2-year note sale, ahead of $43b 5-year and $35b 7-year notes Wednesday and Thursday. Euro-area bonds followed US Treasuries. Focus Monday will be on the host of ECB speakers including for hints on the direction of policy ahead of next week’s rate decision. US session is light on calendar events with Fed speakers in quiet period ahead of Feb. 1 policy announcement.

In commodities, crude futures advance with WTI gaining 0.5% to trade near $82.00. G7 is considering two price caps for Russian oil products, one for expensive products such as diesel or gasoline and another for cheaper products e.g. fuel oil, via Politico citing EU diplomats. India is planning to lower gold import duty to prevent the increase in smuggling, according to Reuters sources. Spot gold has been waning from its USD 1,935.41/oz overnight peak, with traders citing profit-taking following the yellow metal’s recent run higher. LME Copper printed a +6month peak overnight given the positive demand picture and supply-side concerns regarding Peru.

Bitcoin is supported on the session and resides at the top-end of a USD 22.94k-22.30k range, albeit it is yet to re-test the January 21st YTD peak of USD 23.35k.

Today’s calendar is relatively quiet with just the Leading index on  deck.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures little changed at 3,987.75
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.2% to 453.10
  • MXAP up 0.5% to 167.79
  • MXAPJ up 0.2% to 551.49
  • Nikkei up 1.3% to 26,906.04
  • Topix up 1.0% to 1,945.38
  • Hang Seng Index up 1.8% to 22,044.65
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.8% to 3,264.81
  • Sensex up 0.6% to 60,975.85
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 little changed at 7,457.27
  • Kospi up 0.6% to 2,395.26
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 2.18%
  • Euro up 0.4% to $1.0902
  • Brent Futures up 0.5% to $88.07/bbl
  • Brent Futures up 0.5% to $88.07/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.1% to $1,924.23
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.30% to 101.71

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Responding to massive state aid the US is providing for its green transition, European Council President Charles Michel is proposing steps to strengthen the bloc’s economies that would involve a new bond program to even out the different financial situations of EU member states
  • The ECB should continue with half- point interest-rate increases at the next two meetings and the time to slow the pace of hikes is “still far away,” according to Governing Council member Klaas Knot
  • ECB Governing Council member Olli Rehn said “there are grounds for significant increases” in the key interest rate in the winter and early spring, reiterating comments he’d made earlier in the week
  • Japanese government representatives at the BOJ’s December policy meeting requested an urgent time out in a likely sign of their surprise at planned adjustments to the bank’s yield curve control program
  • Some BOJ board members said the bank must communicate clearly that adjustments to the conduct of yield curve control aim to make easing more sustainable and aren’t a policy shift toward an exit, according to minutes of December policy meeting
  • Australian central bank chief Philip Lowe’s prospects for an extension of his role are far from clear-cut, according to economists, with some highlighting political hurdles to his reappointment

A more detailed recap of overnight news courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pacific stocks began the week with a positive bias but with gains capped amid mass closures across the region. ASX 200 was rangebound as weakness in the defensive sectors was counterbalanced by gains in energy and tech, in which the latter took impetus from last Friday’s outperformance in the Nasdaq after Netflix’s strong subscriber numbers and Google’s announcement to cut its workforce by 12,000. Nikkei 225 was the biggest gainer and rose above 26,900 to print a fresh monthly high where it then met some resistance, while overnight newsflow was extremely light and China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia and Vietnam are all closed for the Lunar New Year holiday.

Top Asian News

  • China’s box office film sales totalled CNY 1.34bln on the first day of the Lunar New Year holiday (2022 1.45bln YY; 2021 1.67bln YY), via SCMP.
  • China CDC chief epidemiologist said the possibility of a large-scale rebound of a COVID outbreak during the next two or three months is very small as 80% of China’s population has already been infected, according to Reuters. Furthermore, China reported that COVID-19 deaths in the week leading to the Lunar New Year topped 12,600.
  • Japanese PM Kishida said will pick the new BoJ Governor by taking the economic situation in April into account and it is too soon to say if there is a need to change the government-BoJ accord, according to Reuters. It was also separately reported that PM Kishida said the government will nominate the new BoJ Governor in February.
  • BoJ December meeting minutes stated the central bank will add some easing if necessary and several members said the effect of powerful monetary easing will continue even if the BoJ widens the yield target band. Furthermore, a few members said the BoJ must clearly explain that widening of the yield band is not a move eyeing the exit from ultra-loose policy, while a member said the BoJ must conduct a review of its policy framework sometime in the future.
  • New Zealand’s ruling Labour Party voted to choose Chris Hipkins as the new PM and Carmel Sepuloni was named as the Deputy PM, while incoming PM Hipkins stated that Finance Minister Robertson indicated that he wants to continue in the role, according to Reuters.

European bourses are modestly firmer, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.2%, amid a relatively quiet start to the week given the mass APAC closures from the Lunar New Year holiday. Sectors have a similar mild positive bias with Tech and Basic Resources the marginal outperformers. Stateside, futures are essentially unchanged, with the ES capped by 4k and the Fed blackout period underway going into the second busiest week of earnings this season. Banks including Wells Fargo (WFC), Bank of America (BAC) and JPMorgan (JPM) are said to be planning payment wallets to compete with the likes of PayPal (PYPL) and Apple Pay (AAPL), according to WSJ.

Top European News

  • UK electricity network operator National Grid had emergency coal-fired plants warm up amid expectations of tight supply and increased demand due to cold weather, while it will pay households to use less power during early Monday evening, according to FT.
  • UK has started a post-Brexit review of EU’s investor fund regulations amid concerns that Europe is not acting fast enough on appropriate safeguards, according to FT.
  • Ireland’s Foreign Affairs Minister has described ongoing NI Protocol talks as “very challenging”, according to BBC’s Parker; “We would hope that those negotiations would be successful but they are very challenging.”
  • French President Macron said Germany is to join the new hydrogen pipeline project between Spain and France, according to Reuters.
  • Fitch affirmed Ireland at AAA; Outlook Stable and affirmed Norway at AAA; Outlook Stable, while it affirmed Hungary at BBB; Outlook Cut to Negative from Stable.

ECB

  • ECB’s Knot said to expect the ECB to hike by 50bps in February and March, followed by more steps in May and June, according to Reuters.
  • ECB’s Nagel says ECB is to return inflation to target without causing a recession, via Econostream; thinks this will be achieved by the end of 2024/25.
  •  
  • ECB’s Villeroy said the ECB will continue to raise rates, but possibly at a slightly slower pace than in recent months, but will do so to a level necessary to keep inflation under control, via Econostream.

FX

  • The DXY has eased further to the benefit of most peers across the board as the Fed blackout period commences with a 25bp hike almost entirely priced in.
  • AUD and NZD are among the outperformers ahead of inflation data, with AUD/USD surpassing 0.70 and NZD/USD testing 0.65.
  • EUR continues to benefit from hawkish ECB guidance, EUR/USD above 1.09 at best, while JPY is the relative laggard after dovish December minutes.
  • CHF gleans modest support from Credit Suisse lifting its SNB forecast for March to 50bp vs prev. 25bp while the CAD is relatively steady pre-data/Wednesday’s BoC.
  • Brazil and Argentina aim for greater economic integration and decided to advance discussions regarding a common South American currency that could be used for financial and commercial flows, according to an article jointly penned by the countries’ leaders.

Fixed Income

  • Hawkish ECB vibes continue to hold sway as sellers fade upticks in debt, Bunds sub-138.00, Gilts under 104.00 after brief bounces to 138.44 and 104.63 respectively.
  • T-notes a bit more resilient as Fed hawk Waller joins 25bp hike advocates for February’s FOMC, 10 year bond within 115-07/114-30 range vs last Friday’s 115-02 close

Commodities

  • Crude benchmarks are somewhat choppy in contained ranges of circa. USD 1/bbl given the mass APAC closures; though, prices overall are underpinned by a rosier demand picture.
  • Kuwait temporarily suspended operations at three ports on Sunday due to bad weather, according to state news agency KUNA.
  • US Treasury Secretary Yellen said western countries are working on price caps for Russian refined petroleum products to ensure the continued flow of diesel but added it is complicated and there is a possibility that things may not go to plan, according to Reuters.
  • G7 is considering two price caps for Russian oil products, one for expensive products such as diesel or gasoline and another for cheaper products e.g. fuel oil, via Politico citing EU diplomats.
  • EU Securities Watchdog ESMA says EU gas price cap could impact the orderly functioning of markets and impact financial stability, according to a draft report cited by Reuters.
  • Japanese insurers will raise insurance by about 80% on ships carrying LNG in Russian waters, according to Nikkei.
  • Netherlands seeks to close the Groningen gas field this year which is the largest in Europe and earthquake-prone, while an official noted that it was very dangerous to keep operating the field and that they aim to shut it by October 1st but would wait to see if there is a shortage of gas after the winter, according to FT.
  • India is planning to lower gold import duty to prevent the increase in smuggling, according to Reuters sources.
  • Spot gold has been waning from its USD 1,935.41/oz overnight peak, with traders citing profit-taking following the yellow metal’s recent run higher.
  • LME Copper printed a +6month peak overnight given the positive demand picture and supply-side concerns regarding Peru.

Geopolitics

  • Joint French-German statement following a summit between French President Macron and German Chancellor Scholz stated they will support and assist Ukraine for as long as necessary and they support efforts to prosecute perpetrators of war crimes, according to Reuters. Furthermore, French President Macron commented at the summit that he doesn’t rule out sending Leclerc tanks to Ukraine and that training time needs to be taken into account, while he added that sending tanks should not endanger France’s own security.
  • German Defence Minister Pistorius said he thinks there will be a decision soon regarding tanks for Ukraine whichever way it may fall, while it was also reported that German Foreign Minister Baerbock said Germany would not stand in the way if Poland sends Leopard tanks to Ukraine, according to Reuters and French television LCI.
  • A Russian warship armed with hypersonic missiles will participate in joint naval exercises with China and South Africa in February, according to Reuters.
  • Russian Kremlin says that there have been no announcements yet on whether President Putin will run for another term in office in 2024.
  • EU ministers have agreed a new sanctions package against Iran, according to the Swedish EU Presidency.

US Event Calendar

  • 10:00: Dec. Leading Index, est. -0.7%, prior -1.0%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Morning from an exceptionally cold and misty England. I’ve been feeling dreadful after a virus struck me down on Friday. I’ve had three very bad colds since the end of November, an ear infection, and now a virus that for the first time in this spell has given me a fever! My wife has had a similar path over the last two months and the kids have all had strep A. The difference is that within 2-3 days they bounced back completely whereas us old timers can’t get a break this winter and have to look after their hyperactivity at the weekends while we lie on the sofa feeling sorry for ourselves. We’ve done more covid tests as a family recently than we needed to do throughout the entire pandemic. All negative! I can only assume that our immune systems had a break for 2 plus years around covid and are now taking a winter to rev back up!

We’ll get the latest health check on global growth momentum this week amid releases of Q4 US GDP (Thursday) and global PMI numbers (tomorrow). US leading indicators today will also be of note as we are around levels only previously associated with recessions. In addition, PCE, personal spending (both Friday) and durable goods orders (Thursday) will also be released.

Key central bank events will include the BoC decision, and Summary of Opinions and minutes from the BoJ’s shock December meeting (all Wednesday). In earnings, all eyes will be on Microsoft (tomorrow), Tesla and ASML (both Wednesday), amongst others.

The Fed are now in their blackout period so the usual mini vol around Fed speakers won’t be there this week. However, there are quite a few growth signposts to engage markets. We’ll expand upon a few of the key upcoming events now. It’s not a top tier release but today’s US leading indicators (consensus -0.7% vs -1.0% last month and likely around -5.5% YoY) will likely remain at levels only previously associated with recessions. Last month the Conference Board, who publish this series, said the following: “Only stock prices contributed positively to the US LEI in November. Labor market, manufacturing, and housing indicators all weakened—reflecting serious headwinds to economic growth… The US LEI suggests the Federal Reserve’s monetary tightening cycle is curtailing aspects of economic activity, especially housing. As a result, we project a US recession is likely to start around the beginning of 2023 and last through mid-year.”

This is interesting as we felt when we did our 2023 outlooks we were the opposite way round to consensus. We expected a good start for risk assets this year but a very bad end to the year on our long-standing H2 23 recession call. To be honest, the US data has generally been poorer than anticipated this year so far which is fascinating as markets are rallying hard.

We’ll get a good read on global growth momentum with tomorrow’s global flash PMIs which will take into account China’s reopening and falling gas prices. Then we’ll see how growth was faring going into this year with Q4 US GDP on Thursday. Our economists expect +3.2% annualised (consensus +2.7%). Interestingly they expect +1.8% for Q1 with H2 being where the US recession hits. Consensus on Bloomberg is around 0% for Q1 so that’s a potential battle ground once actual hard data comes through.

Other notable data releases on Thursday include durable goods orders, new home sales, and the Chicago Fed national activity index. All will be closely watched for signs of weakness seen in the data so far this month.

Friday’s core PCE release will occupy the Fed’s minds on their blackout period ahead of next week’s FOMC. Our economists don’t expect the same declines as recently seen in CPI as some of the stronger components in PPI last week are better correlated to PCE components. They expect a +0.4% monthly gain in the core PCE price index.

With that Fed blackout, ECB speakers will take center stage, especially today with Lagarde being the highlight. Dutch CB chief Knot continued his recent hawkish rhetoric over the weekend suggesting that “We made a step down in December from 75 to 50 basis points — that will be the pace for a multiple number of meetings… So that means at least the two in February and March.” So that will challenge the Euro rates bulls after the recent rally. We saw a big reversal from the yield lows (+20bps on 10yr Bunds) on Thursday (and into Friday) after Lagarde’s hawkish Davos commentary. Knot is also on the agenda again tomorrow. You’ll see the full list of speakers in the day-by-day week ahead at the end. Back across the pond, the BoC are expected to hike 25bps on Wednesday. A few weeks ago many were expecting a pause but a recent stretch of firm data has moved the consensus back in favour of a hike.

Over in Asia, key data releases for Japan will include the aforementioned PMIs and the Tokyo CPI (Thursday). Aside from the BoJ’s Summary of Opinions for the January meeting, the minutes of the December meeting will also be released and our economists highlight the importance of analysing how the decision to double the yield curve control range was reached. Elsewhere in the region, the Lunar holidays will curtail a lot of the week’s activity with many bourses shut until midweek with China shut all week.

In corporate earnings, Microsoft will kick off the reporting season for Big Tech tomorrow, with the rest of the group reporting next week. All eyes will be on Tesla post-market on Wednesday ahead of earnings from traditional automakers next week as investors try to grasp trends for EV demand. Other earnings highlights are in the calendar at the end.

This morning in Asia many major equity markets are closed for the Lunar New Year holiday with, as mentioned, mainland Chinese markets remaining shut until January 30. Amid a subdued trading, the Nikkei (+1.21%) is the standout performer, mirroring Friday’s strong finish on Wall Street after a broad rally in the US tech stocks. Meanwhile, the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.12%) is also trading in positive territory in early trading. In overnight trading, US equity futures tied to the S&P 500 (-0.09%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.09%) are just below flat ahead of the start of a busy week of earnings. Meanwhile, yields on 10yr USTs (-1.28bps) edged lower to trade at 3.47% as we go to press.

Yields on 10yr Japanese Government Bonds (0.38%) remained below the BoJ’s 0.5% ceiling after the central bank said it will provide 1trn yen of collateralised loans for banks as it attempts to keep rates from rising. In the FX market, the dollar index (-0.24%) declined for the fourth consecutive day to trade at 101.78 amid concerns over US economic growth.

Recapping last week now. The strong start to the year for risk assets took a bit of a pause mid-week on heightened US recession risks, only to close out strongly again. The S&P 500 rose sharply on Friday (+1.89%) to leave the S&P 500 ‘only’ down -0.66% on the week. Tech stocks led the rally on Friday with the NASDAQ up +2.66% (up +0.55% on the week), with positively received earnings releases from the likes of Netflix, and news of cost reduction at Google, helping. The Stoxx 600 rallied +0.37% on Friday but was fairly flat (-0.09%) on the week.

Bonds also saw decent sized swings on the week with the 10yr Treasury yield +8.7bps to 3.48% on Friday, their largest move up since mid-December, but still down -2.5bps for the week but having traded as low as 3.32% on Wednesday.

Over in Europe, there was a similar sell-off on Friday in fixed income as the market had to face a hawkish end to the week from the ECB speakers (especially Lagarde). 10yr bunds rose +11.2bps on Friday to 2.177%, the largest increase since the end of December, although for the week as a whole they were up just +0.9bps. Yields on 10yr OATs (+14.0bp) and BTPs (+21.8bps) also increased significantly on Friday but were down -0.9bps and -1.8bps for the week respectively.

Commodities again had a decent week following continued optimism surrounding China’s reopening. WTI crude was up +1.82% over the week to $81.31/bbl (+1.22% on Friday), its highest closing level since mid-November. Brent crude also rallied over the week, up +2.476% (+1.71% on Friday).

AND NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)

US futures essentially unchanged with Fed blackout underway & earnings picking up – Newsquawk US Market Open

Newsquawk Logo

MONDAY, JAN 23, 2023 – 06:26 AM

  • European bourses are modestly firmer, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.2%, amid a relatively quiet start to the week given the mass APAC closures from the Lunar New Year holiday.
  • Stateside, futures are essentially unchanged, with the ES capped by 4k and the Fed blackout period underway going into the second busiest week of earnings this season.
  • The DXY has eased further to the benefit of most peers across the board as the Fed blackout period commences.
  • Crude benchmarks are somewhat choppy in contained ranges of circa. USD 1/bbl given the mass APAC closures; though, prices overall are underpinned by a rosier demand picture.
  • EGBs continue to be influenced by hawkish ECB commentary while USTs are somewhat more resilient given 25bp is almost entirely priced for the Fed.
  • Looking ahead, highlights include EZ Consumer Confidence (Flash), US Leading Index, Speeches from ECB’s Lagarde & Panetta, Supply via EU Syndication. Holiday closures include China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea & Singapore.

View the full premarket movers and news report. 

Or why not try Newsquawk’s squawk box free for 7 days?

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

  • European bourses are modestly firmer, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.2%, amid a relatively quiet start to the week given the mass APAC closures from the Lunar New Year holiday.
  • Sectors have a similar mild positive bias with Tech and Basic Resources the marginal outperformers.
  • Stateside, futures are essentially unchanged, with the ES capped by 4k and the Fed blackout period underway going into the second busiest week of earnings this season.
  • Banks including Wells Fargo (WFC), Bank of America (BAC) and JPMorgan (JPM) are said to be planning payment wallets to compete with the likes of PayPal (PYPL) and Apple Pay (AAPL), according to WSJ.
  • Click here for more detail.

FX

  • The DXY has eased further to the benefit of most peers across the board as the Fed blackout period commences with a 25bp hike almost entirely priced in.
  • AUD and NZD are among the outperformers ahead of inflation data, with AUD/USD surpassing 0.70 and NZD/USD testing 0.65.
  • EUR continues to benefit from hawkish ECB guidance, EUR/USD above 1.09 at best, while JPY is the relative laggard after dovish December minutes.
  • CHF gleans modest support from Credit Suisse lifting its SNB forecast for March to 50bp vs prev. 25bp while the CAD is relatively steady pre-data/Wednesday’s BoC.
  • Brazil and Argentina aim for greater economic integration and decided to advance discussions regarding a common South American currency that could be used for financial and commercial flows, according to an article jointly penned by the countries’ leaders.
  • Click here for more detail.

FIXED INCOME

  • Hawkish ECB vibes continue to hold sway as sellers fade upticks in debt, Bunds sub-138.00, Gilts under 104.00 after brief bounces to 138.44 and 104.63 respectively.
  • T-notes a bit more resilient as Fed hawk Waller joins 25bp hike advocates for February’s FOMC, 10 year bond within 115-07/114-30 range vs last Friday’s 115-02 close
  • Click here for more detail.

COMMODITIES

  • Crude benchmarks are somewhat choppy in contained ranges of circa. USD 1/bbl given the mass APAC closures; though, prices overall are underpinned by a rosier demand picture.
  • Kuwait temporarily suspended operations at three ports on Sunday due to bad weather, according to state news agency KUNA.
  • US Treasury Secretary Yellen said western countries are working on price caps for Russian refined petroleum products to ensure the continued flow of diesel but added it is complicated and there is a possibility that things may not go to plan, according to Reuters.
  • G7 is considering two price caps for Russian oil products, one for expensive products such as diesel or gasoline and another for cheaper products e.g. fuel oil, via Politico citing EU diplomats.
  • EU Securities Watchdog ESMA says EU gas price cap could impact the orderly functioning of markets and impact financial stability, according to a draft report cited by Reuters.
  • Japanese insurers will raise insurance by about 80% on ships carrying LNG in Russian waters, according to Nikkei.
  • Netherlands seeks to close the Groningen gas field this year which is the largest in Europe and earthquake-prone, while an official noted that it was very dangerous to keep operating the field and that they aim to shut it by October 1st but would wait to see if there is a shortage of gas after the winter, according to FT.
  • India is planning to lower gold import duty to prevent the increase in smuggling, according to Reuters sources.
  • Spot gold has been waning from its USD 1,935.41/oz overnight peak, with traders citing profit-taking following the yellow metal’s recent run higher.
  • LME Copper printed a +6month peak overnight given the positive demand picture and supply-side concerns regarding Peru.
  • Click here for more detail.

ECB

  • ECB’s Knot said to expect the ECB to hike by 50bps in February and March, followed by more steps in May and June, according to Reuters.
  • ECB’s Nagel says ECB is to return inflation to target without causing a recession, via Econostream; thinks this will be achieved by the end of 2024/25.
  • ECB’s Villeroy said the ECB will continue to raise rates, but possibly at a slightly slower pace than in recent months, but will do so to a level necessary to keep inflation under control, via Econostream.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

  • UK electricity network operator National Grid had emergency coal-fired plants warm up amid expectations of tight supply and increased demand due to cold weather, while it will pay households to use less power during early Monday evening, according to FT.
  • UK has started a post-Brexit review of EU’s investor fund regulations amid concerns that Europe is not acting fast enough on appropriate safeguards, according to FT.
  • Ireland’s Foreign Affairs Minister has described ongoing NI Protocol talks as “very challenging”, according to BBC’s Parker; “We would hope that those negotiations would be successful but they are very challenging.”
  • French President Macron said Germany is to join the new hydrogen pipeline project between Spain and France, according to Reuters.
  • Fitch affirmed Ireland at AAA; Outlook Stable and affirmed Norway at AAA; Outlook Stable, while it affirmed Hungary at BBB; Outlook Cut to Negative from Stable.

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

  • WSJ’s Timiraos writes Fed officials are preparing to slow interest-rate increases for the second consecutive meeting and debate how much more they would need to raise rates after gaining more confidence inflation will ease further this year, while Timiraos added the Fed could start to deliberate at the upcoming meeting how much more softening in labour demand, spending and inflation they would need to see before pausing rate hikes in the spring.
  • US Treasury Secretary Yellen said she believes China understands the need to address debt issues, while she warned that a failure by heavily indebted countries to reduce the debt overhang would set back development in poor countries and could increase the risk of war, terrorism and migration for those countries, according to Reuters.
  • Turkish President Erdogan announced that the election will take place on May 14th which is a month earlier than scheduled, according to Reuters.
  • US Department of Justice searched US President Biden’s home on Friday and found 6 additional documents with classified markings which were from President Biden’s time in the Senate and when he was Vice President, while President Biden’s lawyer said the President and First Lady were not present during the search and that Biden had offered access to allow the DoJ to conduct the search, according to Reuters.
  • White House Chief of Staff Klain is reportedly planning to leave the role in the approaching weeks and President Biden is to name Jeff Zients as the new Chief of Staff, according to sources cited by Reuters and Washington Post.
  • NABE survey showed 53% of respondents see more than an even chance the US will enter a recession in the next 12 months, while 3% of respondents from private-sector firms and industry trade associations said the economy is already in a recession, according to Reuters.
  • Click here for the US Early Morning note.

GEOPOLITICS

  • Joint French-German statement following a summit between French President Macron and German Chancellor Scholz stated they will support and assist Ukraine for as long as necessary and they support efforts to prosecute perpetrators of war crimes, according to Reuters. Furthermore, French President Macron commented at the summit that he doesn’t rule out sending Leclerc tanks to Ukraine and that training time needs to be taken into account, while he added that sending tanks should not endanger France’s own security.
  • German Defence Minister Pistorius said he thinks there will be a decision soon regarding tanks for Ukraine whichever way it may fall, while it was also reported that German Foreign Minister Baerbock said Germany would not stand in the way if Poland sends Leopard tanks to Ukraine, according to Reuters and French television LCI.
  • A Russian warship armed with hypersonic missiles will participate in joint naval exercises with China and South Africa in February, according to Reuters.
  • Russian Kremlin says that there have been no announcements yet on whether President Putin will run for another term in office in 2024.
  • EU ministers have agreed a new sanctions package against Iran, according to the Swedish EU Presidency.

CRYPTO

  • Bitcoin is supported on the session and resides at the top-end of a USD 22.94k-22.30k range, albeit it is yet to re-test the January 21st YTD peak of USD 23.35k.

APAC TRADE

  • APAC stocks began the week with a positive bias but with gains capped amid mass closures across the region.
  • ASX 200 was rangebound as weakness in the defensive sectors was counterbalanced by gains in energy and tech, in which the latter took impetus from last Friday’s outperformance in the Nasdaq after Netflix’s strong subscriber numbers and Google’s announcement to cut its workforce by 12,000.
  • Nikkei 225 was the biggest gainer and rose above 26,900 to print a fresh monthly high where it then met some resistance, while overnight newsflow was extremely light and China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia and Vietnam are all closed for the Lunar New Year holiday.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

  • China’s box office film sales totalled CNY 1.34bln on the first day of the Lunar New Year holiday (2022 1.45bln YY; 2021 1.67bln YY), via SCMP.
  • China CDC chief epidemiologist said the possibility of a large-scale rebound of a COVID outbreak during the next two or three months is very small as 80% of China’s population has already been infected, according to Reuters. Furthermore, China reported that COVID-19 deaths in the week leading to the Lunar New Year topped 12,600.
  • Japanese PM Kishida said will pick the new BoJ Governor by taking the economic situation in April into account and it is too soon to say if there is a need to change the government-BoJ accord, according to Reuters. It was also separately reported that PM Kishida said the government will nominate the new BoJ Governor in February.
  • BoJ December meeting minutes stated the central bank will add some easing if necessary and several members said the effect of powerful monetary easing will continue even if the BoJ widens the yield target band. Furthermore, a few members said the BoJ must clearly explain that widening of the yield band is not a move eyeing the exit from ultra-loose policy, while a member said the BoJ must conduct a review of its policy framework sometime in the future.
  • New Zealand’s ruling Labour Party voted to choose Chris Hipkins as the new PM and Carmel Sepuloni was named as the Deputy PM, while incoming PM Hipkins stated that Finance Minister Robertson indicated that he wants to continue in the role, according to Reuters.

1.c MONDAY/  SUNDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED    //Hang Seng CLOSED      /The Nikkei closed UP 352.51 PTS OR 1.33%            //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.10%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP TO 6.7845//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP TO 6.7786//    /Oil UP TO 82.10 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 88.21   / Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY GREEN         ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER

2 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/

///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

2B JAPAN

END

3c CHINA /

CHINA/ECONOMY

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS/UK AFFAIRS//

GERMANY/UKRAINE

The German people get it: the Ukraine war has no purpose for the west.  German defense minister resigns as criticism over Ukraine escalates

(zerohedge)

German Defense Minister Resigns As Criticism Over Ukraine Mounts

MONDAY, JAN 16, 2023 – 09:30 AM

Germany’s Defense Minister Christine Lambrechthas stepped down on Monday after what’s widely reported as a series of blunders and PR disasters, and amid accusations she’s been too slow and inept in providing Ukraine defense aid.

A member of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD), she’s been a headache for the Scholz government, and alongside rising criticism over the handling of Ukraine, she’s been accused of bungling Germany’s own defense readinessGerman Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht resigned Monday, via DPA

Lambrecht made reference to some recent embarrassing PR moments in her resignation letter, which said in part: “Months of media focus on me doesn’t allow for fact-based reporting and discussion about soldiers, the army and security policy in the interest of German citizens.”

“The valuable work of the soldiers and many motivated people in the defense area needs to be in the foreground,” the letter added.

Criticism grew most fierce over the last two weeks over an awkward New Year’s Eve message and video her office published, as Deutsche Welle (DW) describes

The move comes after German media outlets reported on Friday that the defense chief intended to step down after a much-criticized New Year’s Eve message she posted on social media. 

In her message, Lambrecht mentioned the war in Ukraine with the sound of fireworks in the background. Members of the opposition Christian Democratic Union (CDU) called out the message as tone-deaf and urged her to resign.

According to the same publication, “Her gaffes included taking her adult son on an official trip to a unit in northern Germany in a German Armed Forces helicopter, only to continue with him on vacation in Sylt.” Talk of her imminent resignation began on Sunday.

Perhaps more importantly she’s been seen as emblematic of Berlin’s hesitancy to step up defense aid to Ukraine, amid pressure from other NATO allies. For example, she once came under fire for saying that 5,000 military helmets to Ukraine was “a very clear signal that we stand by your side.”

Currently, the Scholz government is coming under more and more pressure as other European countries like the UK and Poland begin sending heavy tanks to the Ukraine conflict. Already, Berlin agreed to send 40 Marder armored personnel carriers, as well as a Patriot air-defense missile battery to Ukrainian forces.

END

SWEDEN/TURKEY/NATO

On Saturday,  a few Swedes burned the Quran and that set off Erdogan

(zerohedge)

Erdogan Tells Sweden: Don’t Expect To Join NATO After Quran Burning Incident

MONDAY, JAN 23, 2023 – 12:00 PM

It seems the weekend Quran burning controversy in Stockholm was the straw that broke the camel’s back. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan issued some definitive sounding comments on Monday saying that “Sweden should not expect support from us for NATO.”

On Saturday anti-Turkey demonstrations in the Swedish capital included an incident where a copy of the Quran was burned in front of the Turkish embassy. The Quran-burning has enraged Turkish officials, especially coming off of another protest less than two weeks ago wherein a Kurdish group hanged an effigy of President Erdogan and tweeted out images.

Erdogan on Monday said that Swedish authorities allowing it to happen (given police were looking on and didn’t intervene) said it’s proof they allow terrorists in their country

end.

5.UKRAINE RUSSIA//MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

RUSSIA/UKRAINE//USA

Pentagon already sees the Ukraine war going well past 2023

(zerohedge)

Pentagon Already Sees Ukraine War Going Well Past 2023

FRIDAY, JAN 20, 2023 – 09:20 PM

We’ve not so much as reached one full month into 2023, and the United States’ top ranking general is already predicting the war in Ukraine will surely not end this year.

US Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman Mark Milley issued a broad view assessment on the state of the battlefield while attending a US-hosted meeting in Germany at Ramstein airbase among allied defense ministers, which had as its focus sending more arms to Ukraine. Gen. Milley said: “From a military standpoint I still maintain that for this year it would be very, very difficult to militarily eject the Russian forces from all, every inch of… Russian-occupied Ukraine.”Image: AP

Milley in his comments said that currently there’s a mostly “static” front line, which the exception of the (Russian) offensive in the area of Soledar and Bakhmut.

Despite officials at the meeting pledging more weapons to Ukraine, no significant decisions were made on the controversial question of sending Western-made heavy tanks.

Instead, the Biden administration says it’s sticking by the decision to not send M1 Abrams tanks to Ukrainian forces. At the same time this may translate into Ukrainian forces holding back on any major attempt to push Russian forces back from current frontlines, particularly the now raging Bakhmut fighting.

“Senior US officials are urging Ukraine to hold off on launching a major offensive against Russian forces until the latest supply of weaponry is in place and training has been provided, a top Biden administration official says,” according to one international report.

This was followed by: “Speaking to the Reuters news agency on the condition of anonymity, the official said the US was sticking to its decision not to provide Abrams tanks to Ukraine.”

Again, 2023 has barely started, and here we are… the Pentagon expects this war to be stalemated and keep grinding on well into 2024.

Sadly, the casualties on either side will continue to mount. The Western allies will inevitably for the time being continue to embark on a massive expansion of their respective defense budgets…

END

RUSSIA/UKRAINE/USA

World On Brink Of WW3 Due To West Escalating, Medvedev Warns

MONDAY, JAN 23, 2023 – 11:20 AM

Days after he warned NATO of the likelihood of nuclear war if Russia is defeated in Ukraine, former Russian president and current deputy chairman of the security council Dmitry Medvedev on Monday said the world stands on the brink of World War III due to US and Western aggression against Russia.

“The world has come close to the threat of World War III due to impending US aggression against the Russian Federation,” Medvedev said in comments first reported by Sky News Arabia. He also emphasized he sees the conflict at a point of no return. “There are no conditions for negotiations between Russia and Ukraine now, either de facto or de jure,” Medvedev said.

On the same day, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov voiced something similar, saying the confrontation with NATO can no longer be seen as merely a “hybrid war” or proxy war, but is instead fast approaching a real one. He said this in a joint press conference with his South African counterpart, Naledi Pandor

Lavrov explained that this “almost real” – as he put it according to state media, was something the West “has been preparing for a long time against Russia.”

He further charged that Ukraine’s leadership has created “presidents of war” and “Russophobic leaders” – particularly in reference to Present Zelensky and before him Petro Poroshenko.

Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov additionally sounded the alarm in separate Monday remarks, saying that the current rush to supply Western-made tanks to the battlefield will severely escalate the conflict. “The Ukrainian people will pay the burden of this so-called support,” he said.

Peskov also highlighted that it’s clearly creating tensions and division among allies, noting that if the tank plan proceeds, “All countries that directly or indirectly ship weapons to Ukraine are responsible for this.”

Currently, Poland is leading the way on pressuring Germany to authorize sending advanced Leopard tanks to Ukrainian forces. Berlin has so far expressed reluctance, fearing uncontrollable isolation, while seeking to stress Germany doesn’t wish to be a party to the conflict.

Meanwhile, heavier weapons continue to pour into the conflict unabated…

END

UKRAINE/RUSSIA/USA

State of affairs inside the Ukraine;

Robert HryniakFri, Jan 20, 7:00 PM (14 hours ago)
to

Whether Zelensky admits it or not over a 1000 Ukrainians are dying daily in Bakhmut, in addition to hundreds being killed on other fronts.

Do you Know that Burns the CIA chief visited Zelensky to inform him the mood is changing in DC and support on a ongoing basis should not be taken for granted? You can bet the agency will cover their tracks there quickly leaving Zelensky to figure it out. And with the change in Congress no doubt future questions will be asked about the Laundry machine called Ukraine and the elicit money flow. As always sidewalks get rolled up. And perhaps Zelensky now understands he is not relevant to future peace negotiations and accommodations that big dogs make as he is not at the table.

So a big meeting at Ramstein Air base today ( Friday ) with much talk and even a mention that all fights come to a negotiated settlement. However, the real story of importance is that Russia has by way of back channels, informed Germany that if the German tanks attack Russian soil it will be a violation of the Potsdam treaty that ended World War II. The treaty clearly indicates that while Germany is allowed to have a defensive force. However, it cannot be used for anything else. Thus, if leopard tanks manufactured by Germany whether sent to another country or directly from Germany are used for something else the Russian position is it that will violate the demilitarization provisions of the Potsdam treaty. Apparently, Russia told Germany that if these tanks attack Russian soil World War III commences with the first shot. And one imagines further clarity was provided as Russia has made current provisions to destroy every NATO base in Europe within 2 hours of such a shot being fired. They are not kidding! Given the four provinces or oblasts did have now affectively joined Russia, any shot fires on that soil and the treaty is toast. It does not matter what the Ukraine does or does not recognize or the collective west thinks about these oblasts as having been legally separated; it’s the Russian view that counts as they have raised the hammer. As far as it is reported, the new German defense minister has announced today that Germany is not sending any tanks to Kyiv. He went on to explain that all pros and cons must be weighed and that allies should consider and respect the German point of view. Germany may have just walked back WWIII. And that will be a a large warning flag for Poland for going into the Ukraine. Because if they do, they will be on their own.

Meanwhile it does appear that long anticipated Russian winter offensive started this morning. And it is more than likely that before it finishes Ukraine will have been split into two or three parts. Time will soon tell the story on this as new missile strikes should occur soon.

Presumably, NATO countries will notice quickly and not send in their own forces to die on Ukrainian or Russian soil. It is likely that America will now walk back on a direct confrontation with acknowledged boots on the ground. It is simply time to exist while not losing further hegemony, especially on a battlefield.

This could be a intriguing pivot because Europe or at least that part that still thinks will have to consider what is next as the current format must change. And that means addressing the structural issues facing debt financing of nations incapable of repayment. How Europe and who participates in the new arrangements that undoubtedly must now come will become most interesting. Especially since the German stance is a slap to American hegemony and the WEF dictates on the continent. Clearly, Germany got the Russian message and said enough, choosing to live over certain demise. And that signals a huge change to watch.

end

Robert H;

.

Only the worst of the worst will soon be left in Ukraine. Alexander Khodakovsky about the progress of the NWO

 The fight in Ukraine is losing proposition. Sending in F16’s means nothing and those NATO pilots who would fly them will die. It takes time to learn to use aircraft and no way can Ukrainian pilots hop into the seats of F16’s and be expected to do much

https://rusdnepr.ru/na-ukraine-skoro-ostanutsja-lish-hudshie-iz-hudshih-aleksandr-hodakovskij-o-hode-svo/

6. GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

Vaccine//Covid issues: Injuries

Main stream media now fully chastising vaccine makers over their “DECEPTIVE” booster campaign

(zerohedge)

WSJ Shreds Vaccine Makers, Biden Admin Over “Deceptive” Booster Campaign

SUNDAY, JAN 22, 2023 – 08:00 PM

Wall Street Journal editorial board member Allysia Finley has taken a flamethrower to vaccine makers over their “deceptive” campaign for bivalent Covid boosters, and slams several federal agencies for taking “the unprecedented step of ordering vaccine makers to produce them and recommending them without data supporting their safety or efficacy.

You might have heard a radio advertisement warning that if you’ve had Covid, you could get it again and experience even worse symptoms. The message, sponsored by the Health and Human Services Department, claims that updated bivalent vaccines will improve your protection.

This is deceptive advertising. But the public-health establishment’s praise for the bivalent shots shouldn’t come as a surprise. -WSJ

The narrative behind the campaign was simple; mRNA Covid shots could simply be ‘tweaked’ to to target new variants – in this case, the jabs were claimed to confer protection against BA.4 and BA.5 Omicron variants, along with the original Wuhan strain.

To call this wishful thinking would be extremely generous.

As Finley writes, three scientific problems have arisen.

  1. The virus is mutating much faster than vaccines can be updated.
  2. Vaccines have ‘hard wired’ our immune systems to respond to the original Wuhan strain, “so we churn out fewer antibodies that neutralize variants targeted by updated vaccines.”
  3. Antibody protection wanes after just a few months.

Finley has brought receipts too…

Two studies in the New England Journal of Medicine this month showed that bivalent boosters increase neutralizing antibodies against the BA.4 and BA.5 variants, but not significantly more than the original boosters. In one study, antibody levels after the bivalent boosters were 11 times as high against the Wuhan variant as BA.5.

The authors posit that immune imprinting “may pose a greater challenge than is currently appreciated for inducing robust immunity against SARS-CoV-2 variants.” This isn’t unique to Covid or mRNA vaccines, though boosters may amplify the effect. Our first exposure as children to the flu—whether by infection or vaccination—affects our future response to different strains. -WSJ

Here’s what happened

For those who took (or were forced to take) the original vaccine, our memory B-cells were trained to produce antibodies against the original Wuhan strain. And as a New England Journal of Medicine article notes, people who have taken said original vaccine were “primed” to respond to the Wuhan strain, and ‘mounted an inferior antibody response to other variants.’

The studies directly contradict marketing information from Pfizer and Moderna, which asserted that the bivalent boosters produced a response to the new strains (BA.4 and BA.5) that’s 4-6x that of the original boosters – which the WSJ says is “misleading.”

For starters, neither Pfizer or Moderna conducted a randomized trial.

They tested the original boosters last winter, long before the BA.5 surge and 4½ to months after trial participants had received their third shots. The bivalents, by contrast, were tested after BA.5 began to surge, 9½ to 11 months after recipients had received their third shots. -WSJ

Here’s the moneyshot: “The vaccine makers designed their studies to get the results they wanted. Public-health authorities didn’t raise an eyebrow, but why would they? They have a vested interest in promoting the bivalents.”

In June, the FDA ordered vaccine makers to update the boosters against BA.4 and BA.5, and rushed the companies to push them out before clinical data was available. Meanwhile, Biden’s CDC recommended the bivalents for all adults without evidence that they were effective or necessary.

Finley further notes that vaccine makers could have performed small, randomized trials last summer and early fall on the bivalents – with results available by the end of September. But the Biden administration didn’t want to wait (and now we know why).

The CDC published a study in November that estimated the bivalents were only 22% to 43% effective against infection during the BA.5 wave—their peak efficacy. As antibodies waned and new variants took over later in the fall, their protection against infection probably dropped to zero.

Another CDC study, in December, reported that seniors who received bivalents were 84% less likely to be hospitalized than the unvaccinated, and 73% less likely than those who had received two or more doses of the original vaccine. But neither study controlled for important confounding factors—for one, that the small minority who got bivalents were probably also more likely than those who hadn’t to follow other Covid precautions or seek out treatments such as Paxlovid. -WSJ

We’re amazed the Journal even put this out there… Kudos to them.

Fortunately for big pharma and the Biden administration, information overload is the new Soma, and Rachel Maddow et al. have everything under control.

END

Isn’t it amazing that unvaccinated Africa has survived the COVID 19 inteact

(Huber/EpochTimes)

Africa Is Starkly Unvaccinated, And Starkly Unvanquished By COVID

MONDAY, JAN 23, 2023 – 06:30 AM

Authored by Colleen Huber via The Epoch Times,

Let’s study that victory with utmost diligence…

Africa as a Whole Is Very Strikingly Unvaccinated, According to Johns Hopkins University, Our World in Data.

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

Let’s keep in mind that most striking continent on an otherwise bleak world map, as we examine the following map, which shows Africa’s burden of COVID cases since the beginning of COVID.

Here is Africa’s relative share of COVID cases since the beginning of COVID:

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

The Data Reports That Can Be Expected Three Years Into a Pandemic

One would reasonably expect a worldwide pandemic that began three years ago to have been recorded with some ballpark accuracy in case counts, and morbidity and mortality data throughout the world by now, as each hemisphere has been through three winters.  One would also expect that a worldwide vaccine campaign that peaked over a year ago to have resulted in reliable vaccine uptake maps.  One would expect a general consensus regarding such data.  So let’s accept the above maps as not (or not yet) disputed, and as reliable documentation of historical events of pinnacle importance, events that behoove humanity to understand well, and to understand as thoroughly as if our future well-being depends on it.

One who has faith in the practice of vaccination would have also expected that vaccines carrying the name of the pandemic to have mitigated case counts of the same disease.  How then is the overall experience of the African continent to be understood?

Africa was not the only part of the world where reported COVID cases have been low.  Prior to vaccination, numerous countries were barely impacted at all by COVID.  Let’s zoom out from Africa now to examine events in other countries.

Former US Dept of Justice adviser Gavin de Becker wrote an article on Children’s Health Defense [3] that also appears in a book by Edward Dowd, Cause Unknown; in it he looks at COVID mortality in various nations, primarily in Asia, but also in Africa, Europe, Latin America and the Middle East, after COVID began, as well as before and after the launch of their vaccination campaigns.  Three of de Becker’s timelines are as follows.  De Becker indicates with a syringe pointer the date at which each of the following countries began their COVID vaccine campaigns.

Gavin de Becker, https://childrenshealthdefense.org/defender/covid-vaccine-deaths-cause-unknown/

Gavin de Becker, https://childrenshealthdefense.org/defender/covid-vaccine-deaths-cause-unknown/

Gavin de Becker, https://childrenshealthdefense.org/defender/covid-vaccine-deaths-cause-unknown/

De Becker notes that “the reality displayed on the graphs you’ve seen is undeniable, cannot be unseen, and is available to anyone more interested and more industrious than media and governments have been.”

Elusive Truth in Morbidity and Mortality Data: The PCR Problem

De Becker’s article, as the Johns Hopkins data, necessarily relies on reports that are fraught with much difficulty, for the reasons I review below, primarily the wildly misapplied PCR “test” to COVID diagnosis.  However, because that alleged test is primarily how the world has evaluated and tallied COVID cases and deaths for three years, we are necessarily dependent on and limited to the derived data from this alleged test for any meaningful assessment of COVID epidemiology.

COVID-19 diagnoses have been troublesome from the beginning.  It has been noted, including at Johns Hopkins University, which produces the most university-based statistical data on COVID, that reported deaths from flu, pneumonia, heart disease and diabetes decreased significantly in 2020, while COVID-19 deaths became the cause of death listed for now over six million lost lives around the world.  Flu and pneumonia as primary causes of death nearly disappeared.  For every lost life and every grieving family, the signs and symptoms of this respiratory disease phenomenon occurred, and then it is a matter of disagreement as to whether we will call those deaths flu, pneumonia or COVID, with no particular loss of life any less tragic for the bereaved from one diagnosis from the others. Cardiovascular mortality reports also dropped precipitously, without any credible reason for the change.  Another unexplained surprise to epidemiologists was that those deceased with a COVID cause of death exceeded the average age of life expectancy in the US.  Genevieve Briand of Johns Hopkins University discusses these anomalies.

Flu and pneumonia had always been among the most threatening diseases for seniors.  And then the mortality reports changed.  There are two major influences that created an alleged 2020 pandemic out of what was otherwise a typical flu year.  The following two factors led to false reporting of US mortality data for COVID:

First Domino Falls

The first was a manufacturing technique that wound up being wildly misappropriated as a diagnostic test, despite the prior protests of its inventor, the late Kary Mullis, PhD.   The essence of the world’s confusion and fear of COVID stems from the testing itself.  Reverse-transcriptase, polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) is a method for producing more RNA nucleic acid sequences. Essentially, PCR does what it was designed by Mullis to do:  It matches or aligns specific genetic signatures between a given test reagent and a sample.  As the test is run in consecutive cycles, each cycle multiplies the sample.  So that sample then grows exponentially.  The PCR is simply incapable to determine if the introduced sample contains adequate viral particles or virions to rise to the threshold of causing an infection.

For those who have worked with PCR, it is understood that any PCR process run through 20 or more cycles is useless for detection.  The CDC acknowledged that 33 cycles or more are unlikely to detect active virus.  Yet for all of 2020, throughout the US, the number of cycles used in “COVID-19 testing” have been above 37 and often well into the 40’s.   Boris Borovoy and I discuss problems related to this misuse of PCR.  The misplaced faith in this manufacturing technique as a test of anything having to do with contagion was the misjudgment at the core of worldwide disaster.

From such a simple decision and widespread acquiescence to create a test out of a non-test, whether by error, misunderstanding or possibly worse on the part of some: deliberate misuse of an industrial process, a new world may be in its birth from this practice.  This misuse, born of widespread misunderstanding of PCR, became the pretext for the estimated four trillion dollar COVID industry.

Second Domino Falls

The second factor that fired up the COVID engines, so to speak, at least in the United States, was the financially-incentivized COVID cause of death.  Under the US CARES Act, hospitals were compensated more than twice as much money for a COVID case than a flu or pneumonia case,  and the most lethal treatments were compensated even further.   Many US hospitals made millions of dollars from this shift in diagnosis during treatment and on death certificates.

Other forensic evidence shows lack of a pandemic in 2020.  Wall Street seems to need and to have greater reliance on accurate data than governments.  COVID is primarily a pathogenic disease of the respiratory tract, with dyspnea (shortness of breath) noted as one of the most common symptoms along with coughing, in which acute and late-stage care often involves supplemental oxygen.   Oxygen use would be the most reliable artifact of COVID care.  Therefore, we looked at sales of medical oxygen, by revenue of the top companies that produce it, in 2020 vs 2019.  We then noted that their sales decreased in that time.  Meanwhile, sales by six of the top oxygen concentrator producers trading on the NYSE had increased by less than one percentage point from 2019 to 2020. This is the 0.93% in the last line of the following table.   In the same time, the world’s population grew by 1.05%.

C Huber, B Borovoy. Data that disprove the COVID-19 pandemic.  Dec 19, 2020.  PDMJ.   https://pdmj.org/papers/is_there_a_pandemic

For whatever other wealth distribution occurred during what is widely considered to be the peak pandemic year of 2020, the New York Stock Exchange does not reflect the primary medical need of the pandemic patients to have made impact on the revenue of the main companies supplying that medical demand.

How Africa Defeated COVID so Decisively Without Vaccines

Part of the African continent’s success is no doubt due to a fortunate accident of microbiology, infectious diseases, pharmacology and immunology.  It so happens that two of the most effective treatments for COVID, ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine, are also routine prophylactic weekly medicines throughout equatorial Africa, because they happen to be known for a half-century as the most effective, applicable and safest anti-parasite medications.  So the population, particularly through about 31 countries, the tropical middle rectangle roughly, of Africa already were well-equipped prior to COVID events launching in late 2019 to early 2020.

As fortune would have it, the unpatented and relatively inexpensive half-century old drug ivermectin, whose inventors won the Nobel Prize for Medicine in 2015, also has been the most effective medicine against COVID, [15] due in part to its specific effect against RNA transcriptase, as well as its blocking effect on all three parts of the trimeric spike protein, and other mechanisms.

Hydroxychloroquine is also used widely throughout at least equatorial regions of Africa as a prophylactic against parasites, but which fortunately has now been studied extensively and used successfully as both prevention and treatment of COVID disease, and as inhibitor of SARS-CoV-2 replication and activity.  This is shown in over 380 studies conducted in 55 countries.

Africa Leads Again

This is not the first piece of evidence that Africa is leading the world away from a microbial-pretext tyranny.   Last summer, Africa stood alone in being the continent, led by Botswana, to pull the worlds’ people back from the precipice, while pushing the World Health Organization (WHO) back from their attempted tyranny over all world governments.  [18]  This danger is by no means past, and new efforts for WHO dominance over the world are ominously re-grouping at this time.

Africa led the way and inspires the world.  Are the politicians and “public health experts” of the rest of the world humble enough to admit their grotesque errors, even crimes, and to learn from the peoples of the African nations, their experiences and lessons on handling a pandemic?

Or will ethnocentrism or a hostile and racist pride, or the sheer greed stimulated by the lucrative COVIDmania boondoggle, prevent the rest of the world’s willingness to learn from the African experience?  Will such provincial and purchased attitudes bury the 21st century’s most important lesson to date?

*  *  *

Reposted from the author’s Substack.

end

For sure…the need for COVID reparations

(Coleman/EpochTimes)

The Need For COVID Reparations

FRIDAY, JAN 20, 2023 – 11:40 PM

Authored by Adam Coleman via The Epoch Times,

I’m no different from many Americans who still possess anger at how people were mistreated for questioning narratives, forced into struggling economic positions, and repeatedly lied to about the efficacy of lockdowns and vaccines by the most powerful people and institutions in the world.

I still possess animosity toward the formerly respectable so-called experts who’ve become compromised by their political biases and the fear of losing their high status in society if they were to divorce from the narrative and marry objectivity. How can I trust again a media apparatus that guilted an entire population of people into getting an experimental vaccine while simultaneously being sponsored by Big Pharma?

We all want a way to move forward, because anger only breeds more anger, not forgiveness. But it’s also not advisable for us to gloss over the damage that was done to appease the conscience of the people who are now remorseful for their participation in perpetuating falsehoods and who cheered on the social demise of dissenters.

Despite the call for a blanket amnesty discussed in the Atlantic’s op-ed titled “Let’s declare a pandemic amnesty,” I believe we should strive for something that’s more succinct in providing a form of justice that would relieve much of the bitterness that we’ve been carrying for years: COVID reparations.

Often when we discuss reparations, it’s with the concept of throwing an arbitrary amount of cash at people in hopes that it satisfies enough of them in the process, but what I’m advocating for is a reparation that’s socially restorative, fair, and directly benefits the people who were impacted by the injustice.

First, there needs to be a satisfactory acknowledgment of guilt and an apology directly aimed at the American public who were unjustly harmed. For example, there needs to be a recognition of the people who are vaccine injured, and while they’re the minority, their situations are disregarded by people, including medical professionals, who continue to cling to the fallacy that COVID-19 vaccines provide no side effects.

There needs to be a national recognition of the mental damage inflicted upon our children due to seemingly indefinite isolation because of extended lockdowns and school closures, causing youth suicide attempts to soar.

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), in 2020, the proportion of mental health-related emergency department visits among adolescents aged 12–17 years increased by 31 percent compared with 2019. From Feb. 21 to March 20, 2021, emergency department visits due to suspected suicide attempts were 50.6 percent higher among girls aged 12–17 years than during the same period in 2019.

You can’t fix what you don’t acknowledge, and we can’t move forward without public acknowledgment of all the negative consequences that stemmed from an overreaching and politically blinded governmental apparatus and how they encouraged the private sector to mimic their approach.

There should be restitution for the citizens who were forced out of their jobs and other opportunities for refusing to get vaccinated, because this action was motivated by the falsehood of the vaccination stopping the spread, which was overtly stated by many bureaucratic figures, including the CDC Director Rochelle Walensky.

In cities such as New York City, people, like my wife, were forced into an unfair predicament of taking a vaccine that they weren’t fully comfortable being injected with or losing their income, all based on the falsehood of it being the extinguisher of the spread of this virus.

As part of the restitution, every employee who was negatively affected by this should be allowed their positions back or given financial severance compensation directly from their employer, and there should be the immediate reenlistment of military members who were forced out due to this refusal.

Any small business owners who were forced out of business while corporate conglomerates like Amazon, Target, and Walmart were permitted carte blanch operational status should be allowed to file lawsuits against their local government that used edict to choose the economic winners and losers.

Lastly, there should be guarantees of non-repetition by removing all unelected bureaucratic figureheads who perpetuated vaccine falsehoods on behalf of Big Pharma, advocated for lockdowns without regard for our economic survival or impact on our children’s health, and fostered an environment where questioning medical decisions for yourself made you a dissident instead of normal.

Laws should be created to prevent the federal government from providing blanket immunity from lawsuits to pharmaceutical companies, because those companies will undoubtedly put more emphasis on the speed of production and profits over ethics and safety for the American public.

There are countless actions that could be made to show actual repentance for the irreverence shown toward the American public, but there needs to be conscious action alongside the rhetoric of progressing forward.

We haven’t truly learned the lessons from our recent mistakes if we’re willing to continue to pretend that the wounds that were created by our overzealousness aren’t still infected with unresolved acrimony.

end

Adams almost gets it right!

Ben Sellers/Scott Adams 

‘Dilbert’ Creator Scott Adams Admits Vax Critics Were Right, Still Doesn’t Get Why

MONDAY, JAN 23, 2023 – 08:30 AM

Authored by Ben Sellers via Headline USA (emphasis ours),

In a video posted to his YouTube account Saturday, “Dilbert” creator Scott Adams admitted that those who refused to submit to the deadly coronavirus vaccine “appear to be right” based on the latest evidence.

Instead of getting the gene-altering jabs, so-called anti-vaxxers held out for a less virulent strain of the virus to arrive and deliver natural immunity, mimicking the way all earlier vaccines worked prior to the mRNA breakthroughs by Moderna and Pfizer in late 2020.

“Now you’ve got natural immunity and you have no vaccination in you,” Adams noted.

Can we all agree that that was the winning path?” he continued. “The smartest, happiest people are the ones who didn’t get the vaccination, and they’re still alive.

As is often the case with comedians, Adams’ tone makes it difficult to discern the extent to which his video may be tonge-in-cheek.

He has developed a sizable following on Twitter, where he largely supports conservative causes and positions, but controversially broke rank with many of his followers in coming out strongly in favor of the vaccines.

The dilemma is a familiar one within MAGA’s anti-vax subculture, where even once-sacred cows like former President Donald Trump and Fox News host Sean Hannity, both of whom crowed about the importance of the vaccine, have been left tarnished, to an extent, by the science.

Adams’s sarcastic intonation seemed to suggest that the recent video was a nod to his many online critics, more a genuflection than a sincere admission of error.

Indeed, since being proven wrong by the data, he has regularly pushed the idea that both sides in the debate use faulty reasoning and information to reach their conclusions.

After saying that he didn’t want to “put any shade … whatsoever” on his acceptance that the vaccines were a mistake, Adams them proceeded in the video to reiterate his defense that drinking the vax Kool-Aid seemed like the right thing to do at the time.

He also downplayed the fact that warning signs about the vaccine’s risks were present almost immediately, along with strong evidence suggesting they had no efficacy in preventing the transmission or contraction of the virus.

Instead, Adams suggested that opponents were simply invested emotionally in a contrarian worldview.

“The anti-vaxxers, I think, were really just distrustful of big companies and big government,” he said. “That’s never wrong.”

Adams then suggested he was the victim for going out on a limb and having the courage to make himself a vaccine guinea pig based on his informed decision-making.

All of my fancy analytics got me to a bad place,” he said, beckoning back toward a white board that showed a graph of his cost–benefit analysis. “All of your heuristics—‘Don’t trust these guys, it’s obvious’—totally work.”

Naturally, he was met with more backlash online after posting the video.

While invoking the psychological concept of heuristics—essentially, the idea that vaccine skeptics relied on their preconceived beliefs and opinions to form a snap judgment,  Adams’s fallacy lies in another clinical concept—the idea of Type I versus Type II errors in hypothesis testing.

The term comes from statistical analyses, in which there exists both a control/null hypothesis and a treatment/alternative hypothesis of some kind, with researchers calculating the probability, based on a given sample, that one’s assumptions are true.

Since there is always a degree of uncertainty, a Type I error results in the rejection of a hypothesis that is, in fact, true. A Type II error result from acceptance of a false hypothesis.

While it seems needlessly complicated due to the use of variables and other jargon, humans instinctively calculate these sorts of risk assessments with every decision we make: Is it better to try something experimental that might offer some unknown benefit or to follow the status quo and risk missing out on something better?

For Adams and his pro-jab cabal, however, there was no such dichotomy. Instead, the vaccine was an all-or-none proposition, and any who reached a different conclusion were not only wrong by default, but evil, selfish, ignorant rubes who rightfully deserved to be punished.

By contrast, vaccine skeptics never demanded that anyone follow their decisions, recognizing the chance of error that existed on either side of the bell curve.

But in reality, another variable was added into the mix—the possibility that the vaccine not only had no effect, but that it had an actively adverse effect on different segments of the population, including healthy young adults and children.

All scientific experiments need a control group, and had everyone agreed to take the jab, we might never know if it worked or not relative to natural immunity. Millions of people would still be getting boosted mindlessly, assuming that the decline in COVID cases was proof positive that Big Pharma had saved the day.

Sadly, the scientific reality is that, as a so-called anti-vax movement, those who adopted the live-and-let-live mentality of staying out of other people’s medical decisions also failed.

Since, as Adams readily acknowledged, the null hypothesis proved true in the end, a truly equivalent situation would have seen anti-vaxxers aggressively attacking those who chose the vaccine and threatening to curtail their rights on the basis that vaccination was a social menace that put pure-bloods at a greater risk.

And let’s not forget the collateral damage to various sectors of the economy after vaccine mandates led to shutdowns and supply-chain failures that led to inflation—which we’re all still paying for.

But as Adams will surely agree, hindsight is 20–20, and all we can do is to take the lessons learned and apply them when the next scandemic comes along. Right?

Ben Sellers is the editor of Headline USA. Follow him at twitter.com/realbensellers.

end

GLOBAL ISSUES;// 

Mainstream Media now finally admits that we are facing the worst food crisis in modern history

(Michael Snyder)

The Mainstream Media Admits That We Are Facing “The Worst Food Crisis In Modern History”

SATURDAY, JAN 21, 2023 – 08:10 AM

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

People on the other side of the planet are dropping dead from starvation right now, but most people don’t even realize that this is happening.  Unfortunately, most people just assume that everything is fine and dandy.  If you are one of those people that believe that everything is just wonderful, I would encourage you to pay close attention to the details that I am about to share with you.  Global hunger is rapidly spreading, and that is because global food supplies have been getting tighter and tighter. 

If current trends continue, we could potentially be facing a nightmare scenario before this calendar year is over.

Pakistan is not one of the poorest nations in the world, but the lack of affordable food is starting to cause panic inside that country.  The following comes from Time Magazine

Last Saturday in Mirpur Khas, a city in Pakistan’s Sindh province, hundreds of people lined up for hours outside a park to buy subsidized wheat flour, offered for 65 rupees a kilogram instead of the current, inflated rate of about 140 to 160 rupees.

When a few trucks arrived, the crowd surged forward, leaving several injured. One man, Harsingh Kolhi, who was there to bring a five kg bag of flour home for his wife and children, was crushed and killed in the chaos.

We are seeing similar things happen all over the planet.

Just because you still may have enough food to eat doesn’t mean that everybody else is okay.

In fact, things have already gotten so bad that even CNN is admitting that we are facing “the worst food crisis in modern history”

Yet the world is still in the grips of the worst food crisis in modern history, as Russia’s war in Ukraine shakes global agricultural systems already grappling with the effects of extreme weather and the pandemic. Market conditions may have improved in recent months, but experts do not expect imminent relief.

That means more pain for vulnerable communities already struggling with hunger. It also boosts the risk of starvation and famine in countries such as Somalia, which is contending with what the United Nations describes as a “catastrophic” food emergency.

Sadly, it isn’t just in Somalia where the food crisis has reached “catastrophic” proportions.

According to Reuters, the entire continent is now dealing with the worst food crisis that Africa “has ever seen”…

Across Africa, from east to west, people are experiencing a food crisis that is bigger and more complex than the continent has ever seen, say diplomats and humanitarian workers.

Please go back and read that statement again.

Do you remember all those years when Sally Struthers was begging us to feed the starving children in Africa?

Well, the truth is that conditions are now far worse than when she was making those commercials.

At one hospital in Somalia, grieving mothers are regularly bringing in very young children that have literally starved to death

“Sometimes mothers bring us dead children,” said Farhia Moahmud Jama, head nurse at the paediatric emergency unit. “And they don’t know they’re dead.”

Weakened by hunger, camp residents are vulnerable to disease and people are dying due to a lack of food, said Nadifa Hussein Mohamed, who managed the camp where Isak’s family initially stayed.

“Maybe the whole world is hungry and donors are bankrupt, I don’t know,” she said. “But we’re calling out for help, and we do not see relief.”

UN officials are doing what they can to help, but the truth is that they are being absolutely overwhelmed by the scope of this crisis.

Over the past 12 months, the number of Africans that are dealing with “acute food insecurity” has absolutely exploded

The number of East Africans experiencing acute food insecurity – when a lack of food puts lives or livelihoods in immediate danger – has spiked by 60% in just the last year, and by nearly 40% in West Africa, according to the World Food Programme (WFP).

Sadly, a lot of Americans are simply not going to care about what is going on over there as long as we have enough food over here.

Of course food supplies continue to get tighter on our side of the planet as well.

According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, our corn harvest this year was the smallest in 15 years

Last year was a bad year for corn — the latest US Department of Agriculture (USDA) report shows drought conditions and extreme weather wreaked havoc on croplands.

USDA unexpectedly slashed its outlook for domestic corn production amid a severe drought across the western farm belt. Farmers in Nebraska, Kansas, and Texas were forced to abandon drought-plagued fields.

The agency estimated farmers harvested 79.2 million acres, a decline of 1.6 million acres versus the previous estimate — the smallest acres harvest since 2008.

That wouldn’t be so bad if our population was still the same size that it was back in 2008.

Other harvests have been extremely disappointing too, and that is one of the factors that has been steadily driving up food prices.

At this point, the average U.S. household is spending 72 more dollars on food per month than it was at this same time a year ago…

As inflation continues to decimate the budgets of American families, the December report from Moody’s Analytics showed that families are spending an estimated $72 more on food per month than they were a year ago.

That figure is pulled out of a report that says the typical US household is shelling out $371 on goods and services more than they were a year ago.

In particular, the price of eggs has gone completely nuts.

I recently came across an article about one small business owner that is now paying three times as much for eggs as she once did…

It just seems like the cost of everything is going up these days and that includes egg prices, which are affecting local businesses. “We used to buy 15 dozen eggs from Sam’s for 23 dollars. They are now 68 dollars,” said Cindy Gutierrez, the owner of Creative Cakes. “Now it’s about 63-ish for 15 dozen and it’s also hard to get 15 dozen,” said Caitlyn Wallace, the owner of Catie Pies.

The prices for eggs have surged three times their original price. According to the consumer price index, egg prices increased by 10% in October 2022 and that increase has continued to rise. This is causing a domino effect for restaurants, businesses, and bakeries who use eggs.

Economic conditions are changing so rapidly now, and nothing will ever be quite the same again.

As we move forward, the widespread use of “beetleburgers” is one of the “solutions” that the global elite are starting to push

Beetleburgers could soon be helping to feed the world, according to new research. The creepy crawlers’ larvae — better known as mealworms — could act as a meat alternative to alleviate hunger worldwide. The process uses a fraction of the land and water and emits a smaller carbon footprint in comparison of traditional farming.

To make this a reality, French biotech company Ynsect is planning a global network of insect farms, including nurseries and slaughterhouses. A pilot plant has already been been set up at Dole in the Bourgogne-Franche-Comte region of France.

Doesn’t that sound yummy?

Of course these “beetleburgers” will just be a drop in the bucket.

No matter what the global elite try, they will not be able to stop “the worst food crisis in modern history” from getting a whole lot worse.

So I would encourage you to stock up while you still can.

Global food supplies are getting a little bit tighter with each passing day, and I have a feeling that 2023 will have lots of “unexpected surprises” for all of us.

*  *  *

It is finally here! Michael’s new book entitled “End Times” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.

end

PAUL ALEXANDER

BOOM! for NY and vaccine mandate! fearless SHARYL ATTKISSON reporting: ‘Judge rules NY Covid vaccine mandate is ‘null, void and of no effect’ for healthcare workers’

“The mandate is beyond the scope of respondents’ authority and is therefore null, void and of no effect,” Judge: ‘Gov. Kathy Hochul and the New York State Department overstepped their authority’

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERJAN 21